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00:00:01Make the connection. MUSIC
00:00:17This is BBC News. And now a
00:00:19weekly dynamic discussion on the
00:00:22the US presidency. The President's
00:00:25President's Path. It's kind of like like you have this close relationship
00:00:28relationship between the US and Canada, Canada, and Canada is now sort of
00:00:31of trying to make it into an open open relationship, if you like. It
00:00:35It wants to have, you know, good
00:00:38good relations with the EU, perhaps perhaps with China as well, because
00:00:41because it can't depend on the US US market. Will it be then a benefit
00:00:45benefit for Canada? We don't know know what the price of entry is for
00:00:49for an associate membership. And And then down the road, does that
00:00:52that impact in any way the trading trading relationship with the US..
00:00:56US.. Canadians that
00:01:01That live in these communities? Some of them think that that's all
00:01:04all well and good, but at the same same time, the relationship with with the US really needs to be mended
00:01:08mended because, you know, we're going going to be neighbours no matter matter how good or bad this relationship
00:01:11relationship is, is going to be.
00:01:17be. Hey guys, good to see you again. again. It's been another busy week. week. I feel like we were talking
00:01:21talking about AI for much of
00:01:25it. We were talking about AI and and we were talking about a united
00:01:27united Ireland that President Trump Trump called for on his trip back
00:01:31back to my native homeland at the the start of the week. So it just
00:01:34just shows you never know what this this president is going to call for
00:01:38for or not call for, as the case
00:01:39case may be. The artificial intelligence intelligence discussion is absolutely
00:01:43absolutely blown everything out of of the water this week, hasn't it? it? I mean, it feels like we've been
00:01:47been talking about AI every day. day. And I think we will continue
00:01:50continue probably to do so in the the weeks to come. But another one
00:01:53one of those stories that really really caught my eye and certainly
00:01:55certainly for you guys as well, this
00:01:57this week is just that continuing
00:02:00continuing feud between the US and
00:02:02and Canada and what that has created
00:02:05created in terms of, let's say, not
00:02:07not new alliances, but stronger alliances alliances elsewhere in the world.
00:02:10world. And we saw Canada's Prime Prime Minister Mark Carney heading
00:02:13heading to Strasbourg to speak to
00:02:15to the European Parliament and an an announcement of something pretty
00:02:19pretty unusual, which is that the the EU wants Canada to be what's
00:02:22what's called an associate member. member. And nobody seems to know
00:02:26know exactly what that means. Yeah, Yeah, it was a real plot twist, wasn't
00:02:28wasn't it? It's like it's Canada,
00:02:30Canada, the 51st state or the 28th
00:02:3428th member state. As the case may
00:02:35may be. And that suggestion from
00:02:38from Ursula von der Leyen in her her speech that there be this associate
00:02:42associate member offer on the table. table. Really interesting, though
00:02:44though we haven't heard what the the EU member states feel like about
00:02:48about that. And even Mark Carney, Carney, the Canadian Prime Minister,
00:02:51Minister, when he was talking about about it in his speech, he didn't
00:02:54didn't actually say, oh yes, please, please, I'll take that very much.
00:02:57much. You know, he was kind of vague vague about it as well. I thought.
00:03:00thought. Of course we don't actually actually know what exactly this could
00:03:04could entail. In his speech in Strasbourg, Strasbourg, Mark Carney laid out
00:03:06out kind of a number of economic economic and political ways this
00:03:10this could work. Also, students going going back and forth. But I mean,
00:03:13mean, it really is kind of a shot shot across the bow for the Trump
00:03:17Trump administration. And even in in Mark Carney's speech, he seemed
00:03:21seemed to kind of repeatedly refer refer to President Trump without without actually referring to him
00:03:24him saying, you know, the threat threat of tariffs has been weaponised
00:03:28weaponised and that there's a need need for kind of a new order, a new
00:03:31new geopolitical order in the world. world. All of that is very kind of
00:03:35of pointedly at Trump, given the the kind of deterioration in relationships.
00:03:38relationships. We saw this year. year. All pointedly without saying
00:03:41saying President Trump's name. I I thought it was interesting when when Ursula von der Leyen, the commission
00:03:45commission president, was speaking speaking the day before that, she
00:03:48she said, this is not an alliance alliance against anyone. It is a
00:03:51a closer partnership. And that's that's something Mark Carney said
00:03:54said in his speech as well to the the European Parliament, which was
00:03:58was a stronger Canada and a more more independent and resilient Canada
00:04:01Canada makes it a better partner partner to every other country in
00:04:05in the world that it shares a partnership partnership with. And it's very clear
00:04:09clear here that that message is directed directed at President Trump, but
00:04:11but they went to great lengths to to really stress the fact that this
00:04:15this was about their partnership partnership growing stronger in a a way we're not exactly sure, of
00:04:18of course, what the contours of that that look like without pulling away
00:04:22away from the US but the reality reality is we've talked in previous
00:04:26previous weeks on this podcast about about just how tense things are between
00:04:29between the US and Canada right now, now, and you can't help but think
00:04:33think this is a product of that.
00:04:34that. And it really enraged President President Trump, didn't it? You know,
00:04:38know, he has a trade war going on on with Canada. But at the same time,
00:04:41time, he doesn't want them cosying cosying up with anybody else. And
00:04:45And he had his usual threat, which which is tariffs all around. If this
00:04:49this goes ahead. So I thought that that was quite interesting as well.
00:04:52well. And you know it's kind of like like you have this close relationship
00:04:55relationship between the US and Canada. Canada. And Canada is now sort of
00:04:59of trying to make it into an open open relationship, if you like. It
00:05:02It wants to have, you know, good
00:05:05good relations with the EU, perhaps perhaps with China as well, because
00:05:09because it can't depend on the US US market. But it raises a point
00:05:12point of where does this leave Canada Canada after President Trump? I mean,
00:05:16mean, if it makes sort of very deeply
00:05:19deeply entrenched arrangements with with the EU, with the UK, with China,
00:05:23China, with whoever else, and then
00:05:26then should there be a president president who is not of the sort
00:05:29sort of tariff persuasion like Donald Donald Trump is after Donald Trump,
00:05:32Trump, what happens then? How do
00:05:34do you unroll or unravel those arrangements? arrangements? I think ultimately,
00:05:38ultimately, even if this does happen happen and the EU and Canada are
00:05:40are more closely linked economically,
00:05:42economically, it doesn't really change change the geography of the issue
00:05:46issue for Canada in the US that Canada
00:05:49Canada might want to be closer to to the EU, but they still share a
00:05:52a very, very long border with the the US many communities on both sides
00:05:55sides of that border have businesses businesses that go back and forth. forth. And just, you know, having
00:05:59having looked at some of the initial
00:06:02initial commentary coming from Canadians, Canadians, you know, Canadians that
00:06:05that live in these communities, some some of them think that that's all all well and good. But at the same
00:06:09same time, the relationship with with the US really needs to be mended
00:06:12mended because, you know, we're going going to be neighbours no matter
00:06:14matter how good or bad this relationship
00:06:16relationship is, is going to be. be. Yeah, I think that's a great
00:06:20great point. What does this all look look like after President Trump? Trump? I guess that very much depends
00:06:23depends on who's in the White House. House. Right. But I found it interesting.
00:06:26interesting. You know, the Canadians Canadians themselves are wondering
00:06:30wondering what a closer relationship relationship with the EU will mean. mean. Will that mean more trouble
00:06:33trouble with the US.? And I was speaking speaking in our programmes to a Conservative
00:06:36Conservative MP from Canada, so not not from Mark Carney's party. And
00:06:40And he was saying, well, you know, know, I have to see the contours
00:06:43contours of what this agreement would would be if it is just words and
00:06:46and vibes, what does that get us? us? And he said, I get the sense sense or we get the feeling that
00:06:50that not everything is rainbows and and unicorns over in the EU either.
00:06:54either. So are we trading kind of of one difficult partnership for
00:06:57for another and are we going to be be trapped in it? And they certainly certainly want to see more from Mark
00:07:00Mark Carney, which of course Mark Mark Carney has said, you know, anything
00:07:04anything would be put to the Canadian Canadian parliament. But it's not
00:07:06not entirely clear what that anything
00:07:08anything would be yet. And I just just wonder, you know, will it be
00:07:12be then a benefit for Canada? We We don't know what the price of entry
00:07:15entry is for an associate membership. membership. And then down the road,
00:07:19road, does that impact in any way way the trading relationship with
00:07:23with the US.? And if Canada has really
00:07:25really strong trading ties with China,
00:07:27China, you mentioned and that has has become a hindrance, as we know,
00:07:31know, in negotiations with the US US then does that really imperil
00:07:34imperil that relationship down the the road? I thought it was really
00:07:37really telling that President Trump's Trump's kind of initial reaction reaction when he was asked about
00:07:41about this by reporters on the tarmac tarmac a couple of days ago when
00:07:44when he was coming back from his
00:07:48his speech, his anger seemed in some some ways a lot more pointed at the
00:07:51the European Union. I mean, he threatened threatened tariffs on them and to
00:07:54to cut trade with the European Union
00:07:56Union in certain sectors. So I mean, mean, what one suspects that at least
00:07:59least some of the EU member states
00:08:01states think this actually might
00:08:06might cause some many, many problems problems in addition to whatever whatever benefit comes from that
00:08:09that relationship with Canada. So So it's a really interesting trade trade off and kind of an interesting
00:08:13interesting move from the EU's part, part, especially to try to smooth smooth over that relationship with
00:08:17with the White House as things are. are. It's also about the precedent
00:08:21precedent that this might set right, right, because if you say that Canada
00:08:24Canada can be an associate member member of the EU, what does that
00:08:27that mean for other countries? There There hasn't been this concept of
00:08:30of an associate member before. There's There's only member member states
00:08:33states and you have to be on the the continent of Europe to qualify.
00:08:37qualify. That's very clear. You have have the UK obviously post-Brexit.
00:08:41post-Brexit. There have been suggestions suggestions that the UK might like like to be an associate member that's
00:08:44that's been ruled out in the past past because like I say, you're on
00:08:48on the continent of Europe. You're You're either a member or you're
00:08:50you're not and we won't go back over over that painful chapter of history
00:08:53history that we're still living through. through. So, you know, if Canada
00:08:57Canada gets a special deal, where
00:08:59where does that leave any other nation? nation? Not on the continent of Europe
00:09:03Europe for special deals as well. well. And then, you know, do you
00:09:06you have questions about how the
00:09:09the Common Market is then undermined undermined for the existing member
00:09:13member states? If there's extra Canadian Canadian fish, for example? What
00:09:17What does that mean for fish products
00:09:19products inside the EU for meat for for so on. So I can see, you know,
00:09:23know, it was really interesting that that Ursula von der Leyen floated
00:09:26floated this, but I want to see how
00:09:29how much sort of consultation or or detail has there been behind the
00:09:32the scenes with the member states states for what this looks like and
00:09:35and what the impact would be? Yeah. Yeah. Because certainly something
00:09:37something we know about the EU is
00:09:39is that it is also riddled with incredible incredible bureaucracy. So to imagine
00:09:43imagine what it would take to get get some sort of concrete form of
00:09:46of an associate membership through through the member states is just,
00:09:49just, you know, another entire process. process. But I was thinking about about the big picture here, which
00:09:53which is a point that Mark Carney Carney has made previously that,
00:09:56that, you know, Canada sees some some of its most important relationships
00:09:59relationships as being based on values. values. And that's something that
00:10:01that he pointed out in his speech speech in Ursula von der Leyen did
00:10:05did in hers as well. We've talked talked about the fact that that's
00:10:07that's not how President Trump approaches approaches his trading deals, his
00:10:11his relationships. It's about transactions.
00:10:14transactions. And if it is seen as as a slight to President Trump, you
00:10:17you know, how will he react? Yes, Yes, he could threaten more tariffs,
00:10:20tariffs, but you get the sense that that the Trump administration is
00:10:23is not at all bothered by this whole
00:10:25whole middle powers, these alliances alliances on values because they
00:10:29they see them as not particularly particularly effective, especially especially in a world of heavyweights
00:10:33heavyweights like the US and China China and perhaps Russia. And so,
00:10:36so, you know, maybe President Trump Trump might be angry about this,
00:10:40this, but what real impact it will will have that he sees or his administration
00:10:43administration sees, I wonder if if they really care. And it will
00:10:46will be some time before it comes comes into force. Like you mentioned, mentioned, Sue me. The bureaucracy,
00:10:50bureaucracy, by the time this moves moves through all the various bodies
00:10:53bodies in the EU, President Trump Trump probably would be out of office
00:10:56office by the time, you know, even even fast track EU systems take at
00:11:00at least a year, if not longer. I I mean, we look at the term free
00:11:04free trade deal that's still sort sort of winding its way through the
00:11:07the various parts of the European
00:11:09European Union. But when you're talking
00:11:11talking about values and when I was was thinking about this partnership,
00:11:15partnership, if you like, you see
00:11:16see that Canada is much more strongly
00:11:19strongly aligned with the EU than
00:11:22than the US on some of the big geopolitical geopolitical issues of our time,
00:11:26time, it recognised the state of of Palestine as most EU member states
00:11:29states have. The US has not. It has
00:11:32has put an import ban in on goods
00:11:36goods coming from the occupied Israeli Israeli territories in the West Bank,
00:11:39Bank, as many EU countries have done,
00:11:41done, the US has not. So there's there's all these other sort of ways
00:11:45ways that Canada is actually now
00:11:47now much closer to the EU than it
00:11:50it is to its next door neighbour. I think at the same time,
00:11:52time, at least here domestically, domestically, President Trump's detractors
00:11:55detractors will, more than any other other issue, will point to the trade
00:11:58trade and tariffs issue and talk
00:12:00talk of the 51st state. Of course, course, as kind of having pushed
00:12:04pushed Canada even further into the
00:12:07the EU's orbit ideologically and and politically than they were before.
00:12:11before. I just don't know of, you you know, particularly many Americans
00:12:15Americans that aren't personally personally affected, perhaps those
00:12:17those on the border will really get
00:12:21get that interested in the kind of of the geopolitical aspects of it
00:12:24it rather than just the day to day day economics. But it's certainly
00:12:27certainly something I think a lot lot of Democrats and over the next
00:12:30next two and a half years will be be hearing quite a lot about how how President Trump pushed Canada
00:12:34Canada away from the people who dislike dislike him. Those geopolitics are
00:12:38are playing out for average Americans, Americans, though. I mean, I think think about the fact that, you know,
00:12:42know, where I'm from in upstate New
00:12:43New York, there is a lot of cross-border
00:12:47cross-border traffic and my of course, course, my beloved Buffalo Bills
00:12:50Bills play the Canadian national national anthem for their home opener.
00:12:53opener. Of course, alongside the
00:12:57the Star Spangled Banner. But that that was the first time that that that happened. And that's because
00:13:00because there are a lot of Canadian Canadian fans who come to see the
00:13:03the Buffalo Bills. And I've just just been seeing numbers of the drop
00:13:06drop in Canadian tourists. You know, know, there are many who go down down to Florida, for example, in
00:13:09in the winter. And that is something something that is noticeable not
00:13:12not just in border states. Right.
00:13:14Right. And so if you ask the average average American, do they see Canada
00:13:18Canada and Canadians as enemies? enemies? I think you might have quite quite a few people scratching their
00:13:21their head, even if they are supporters supporters of President Trump and
00:13:24and do believe in what he says is is levelling the playing field. So
00:13:27So I think the impact will in that that way play out in a way that Americans
00:13:30Americans feel. And it's hard to to reverse that punter power if you
00:13:34you like, isn't it? You know, customers customers start going to the Caribbean
00:13:38Caribbean instead of Florida for for their holidays or companies start
00:13:41start doing business. There doesn't doesn't have to be a formal agreement
00:13:44agreement with the EU, but for companies companies to just shift their export
00:13:47export deals themselves to European European companies rather than to
00:13:51to American companies, if that's that's not working out, it becomes
00:13:53becomes them very difficult to unpick unpick and unwind that when things
00:13:57things get better because they will will get better. I'm sure, as you you were saying, Bernie, you know,
00:14:01know, the next door neighbour status
00:14:03status will not change. So the fences
00:14:05fences will have to be mended. But
00:14:07But one does wonder about kind of of the reputational damage among
00:14:11among Canadians now I think even, even, you know, going forward, even even long after President Trump is
00:14:15is gone, there'll be an acknowledgement acknowledgement that maybe the US
00:14:17US isn't always going to be as very
00:14:21very neighbourly place in every regard. regard. And I think that kind of
00:14:23of is going to be built into Canada's Canada's long-term planning in the
00:14:27the future. I do wonder how this this all will play out for Mark Carney,
00:14:31Carney, the Prime Minister. We've We've talked about this before, but
00:14:34but at some point and you know, I I asked this question a few times
00:14:36times to a few analysts and Canadian
00:14:38Canadian guests. Can any of these
00:14:41these associate memberships or perhaps perhaps new trading agreements that
00:14:43that Canada will have going forward forward offset that relationship
00:14:46relationship with the US and it can't can't that's very clear. I mean,
00:14:50mean, it the US is by far Canada's Canada's biggest trading partner.
00:14:53partner. And so at some point, the
00:14:56the economic side of it will start start to bite in Canada. And that
00:14:59that will be where, you know, you you have to see whether Prime Minister
00:15:02Minister Carney remains as popular popular as he has been and whether whether it pushes the Canadians back
00:15:05back to the table with the US., which which they say they are open for
00:15:09for negotiations, just ones that that are fair. And of course, the
00:15:11the other thing is the trade agreement agreement that's in existence there.
00:15:14there. The US Mexico-canada agreement. agreement. It's still in place for
00:15:17for the guts of another ten years, years, like the negotiations that
00:15:20that have fallen apart are about
00:15:23about renewing it beyond that term. term. So notwithstanding the impact
00:15:26impact of tariffs, a lot of the other
00:15:29other regulations are still in place place and a lot of the pain that's
00:15:32that's been experienced so far is
00:15:36is actually customer boycotts. I I mean, we saw that with the alcohol
00:15:39alcohol as well before there was
00:15:40was ever a mention of tariffs. Canadians
00:15:43Canadians just stopped buying and
00:15:46and the shops stopped stocking Californian Californian wine and Kentucky bourbon
00:15:49bourbon and all of those things. things. They sort of voted with their their feet. I think unfortunately
00:15:53unfortunately that's all the time time we have for now, even though though this is obviously a very meaty
00:15:57meaty topic. Indeed it is. And we we will be talking