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00:00:02And now on BBC Persian TV, the war? current affairs.
00:00:28Numerous reports of. Significant depletion of
00:00:32US arms and Washington's denial. Will the shortage of missiles
00:00:35and missile defense systems change Trump's strategy
00:00:39in the war with Iran? Let's
00:00:42see in Ukraine. Was what they say
00:00:45was a mistake really a mistake? If we look
00:00:49at the multi-layered conflict between Iran and Ukraine after a
00:00:53an Iranian ship was targeted in the Caspian Sea, two
00:00:56drone powers facing each other on several fronts.
00:01:03Warning about an unprecedented decline in Iran's birth rate.
00:01:07What role does the economic crisis play? Increased
00:01:10urbanization and greater independence for women. To what extent has it been
00:01:14effective?
00:01:17Hello and welcome to this week's Reporters program.
00:01:21Recent reports from American media
00:01:24and research centers indicate a significant
00:01:28decrease in the reserves of some of the most important US missiles.
00:01:30in the war with Iran. Reuters, in an exclusive report, states that
00:01:34the US military has used a considerable portion
00:01:38of its long-range and precision missile reserves.
00:01:41The Center for Strategic and International
00:01:45Studies has also estimated that the reserves of missile defense
00:01:48systems in the US have severely decreased. But
00:01:52which missiles exactly has the US used, and could
00:01:55this issue affect Washington's military capability
00:01:59in future crises? Baran Abbasi has sought
00:02:02answers to these questions.
00:02:04Are US missile
00:02:07stockpiles running out?
00:02:10An exclusive Reuters report says the US
00:02:13military has used a significant portion of its stockpiles
00:02:17of certain types of long-range and precision
00:02:20missiles during the war with Iran. This is the moment a short-range
00:02:24surface-to-surface missile, known as the US Army's
00:02:28tactical missile, Three sources
00:02:32familiar with US arms stockpiles said that during
00:02:35the war with Iran, almost all of these missiles were used.
00:02:39The US Army is phasing out ATACMS missiles
00:02:42and gradually replacing them with newer missiles
00:02:46called PrSM, the launch of which is seen
00:02:50here. According to Reuters, the stockpiles
00:02:53of these missiles were initially limited due to their
00:02:56newness, and a significant portion of them has been used.
00:03:00These missiles are used for precise attacks on targets
00:03:04at very long distances, and the cost of each one
00:03:08is over $1 million. The reason for the reduction
00:03:11in these stockpiles, according to US sources, is that Donald Trump
00:03:15preferred to use these missiles instead of riskier options
00:03:19like sending manned bombers into Iranian airspace.
00:03:22However,
00:03:24the issue is not limited to surface-to-surface missiles.
00:03:28According to a Reuters source, the US has used about half
00:03:32of its Tomahawk cruise missile stockpiles
00:03:36since the war began. Tomahawk is a
00:03:39naval weapon and is usually launched from ships. It is
00:03:43one of the US's most important tools for attacking distant
00:03:46and heavily defended targets. However, the main concern
00:03:50might be related to defense systems. Last week, the Center
00:03:54for Strategic and International Studies estimated that from the
00:03:58beginning of the war in March
00:04:00about two-thirds of the US's Patriot interceptor missiles
00:04:03were also used. Also, the number of THAAD system
00:04:06missiles has decreased by 40 to 50 percent
00:04:10compared to the beginning of the war. Patriot and THAAD are used
00:04:14to detect and destroy incoming projectiles like
00:04:17ballistic missiles and are among the most important US
00:04:21defense systems. Of course, Washington denies reports
00:04:25about its arms stockpiles. The White House, in a statement
00:04:29quoting Donald Trump, said: "The US has more weapons
00:04:32than anyone else in the world, and much more than it needs.
00:04:36Our defense industry companies are currently producing more
00:04:40ammunition than ever before, and alongside that, they are
00:04:43expanding their factories and equipment at an unprecedented rate."
00:04:47However, American media say that warnings from Donald
00:04:51Trump's military advisors about the state of US
00:04:55arms stockpiles caused him to decide to halt attacks
00:04:58against Iran. Although he himself said he wants to give
00:05:02diplomacy another chance. But if reports about the depletion
00:05:05of arms stockpiles are true, it means that the US
00:05:08no longer has the capability to continue the war. Not necessarily.
00:05:13As Donald Trump has said, the US can produce these missiles again.
00:05:17Also, the Reuters report says the US
00:05:20military has gathered some of the weapons it needs from
00:05:24stockpiles it had in various parts of the world. However,
00:05:28analysts warn that the ability to replace these weapons
00:05:31might not be as fast as their consumption in a major
00:05:35war. Therefore, if the US gets involved
00:05:38in a full-scale war with Iran again, the depletion of these
00:05:41stockpiles could create a serious problem.
00:05:45For example, Donald Trump might be forced to order
00:05:48riskier operations involving American pilots.
00:05:52A bigger concern is that the US might get involved
00:05:55in a war with Russia or China simultaneously with the Iran
00:05:59war, and no longer have enough stockpiles to defend its forces and allies.
00:06:03This concern is not just about the number of missiles.
00:06:06Patriot and THAAD are crucial for defense against missile
00:06:10attacks. ATACMS, PrSM, and others also allow
00:06:13the US to target distant targets from a safe distance.
00:06:17Therefore, their extensive use could also affect
00:06:20the US's deterrence capability. And all of this seems
00:06:24to have made the most powerful military force in the US
00:06:28decide to strike a balance between three things: continuing
00:06:31operations against Iran, maintaining defensive
00:06:34capability against other threats, and rebuilding its arms
00:06:38stockpiles. Tensions between Iran and Ukraine
00:06:42escalated after Ukraine's recent attack on an Iranian ship
00:06:45in the Caspian Sea. Now, Mohsen Rezaei, military advisor
00:06:49to Iran's leader, has said that after this incident, the
00:06:53Islamic Republic intended to attack three points in Ukraine.
00:06:56Tehran is also unhappy with Ukraine's help
00:06:59to regional countries to repel Iranian drone attacks. Islamic
00:07:03Republic officials claim that Ukraine has also made
00:07:07an appearance in Iraq, according to them, for sabotage.
00:07:10Kyiv has also been angry about Iran's military support for Russia for years.
00:07:14Parham Ghobadi reports on the multi-layered conflict
00:07:18between Iran and Ukraine.
00:07:20Iran and Ukraine, two countries whose
00:07:24drone industry has gained global
00:07:27recognition, are now at odds. The victim
00:07:31is this young Iranian sailor, Nima Moradi.
00:07:34The child will be reunited with
00:07:35his mother.
00:07:38His body was buried yesterday in his hometown, Bandar Anzali.
00:07:42He was killed in a Ukrainian attack. According
00:07:45to Tehran, it was a commercial ship. But Volodymyr
00:07:49Zelensky, the President of Ukraine, has a different
00:07:52opinion. In long-range attacks in the waters of the Caspian
00:07:55Sea, we have achieved very good results. Specifically,
00:07:57these attacks targeted ships that were involved in transferring
00:08:01military cargo from Iran. Also, a warship.
00:08:05The New York Times, citing Iranian and Western sources,
00:08:09said that Tehran had prepared for a retaliatory attack
00:08:12on a Ukrainian port, but a wave of diplomatic
00:08:16efforts prevented it. It was not clear
00:08:20which port, but for example, the distance from Tabriz
00:08:23to the port of Odesa in Ukraine is about 1500
00:08:27kilometers, within reach of Iranian missiles.
00:08:31In any case, after the talks between the foreign ministers
00:08:34of Iran and Ukraine, it seemed that the tension had subsided.
00:08:38to the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic says that the issue of Iran's retaliation
00:08:43is still pending. Because we had prepared to hit three points
00:08:47in Ukraine, but then they said we made a mistake.
00:08:50Since we are not really seeking war, we don't want to start
00:08:53a war. Now, the response to Ukraine has been ruled out, but we are
00:08:57investigating both issues. We'll see in Ukraine
00:09:00if what they say was a mistake, was indeed a mistake.
00:09:04If it was a mistake, there will be consequences.
00:09:06For
00:09:10years, Kyiv has said that Iranian drones fired
00:09:13by Russia are killing Ukrainians and destroying their homes.
00:09:17And it's not just drones. According to the US
00:09:20Department of Defense, Iran has also sent ballistic
00:09:24missiles to Russia. An accusation that Iran has rejected.
00:09:28Now Ukraine says that with the start of the US-Israel
00:09:32war with Iran, Moscow has come to Tehran's aid.
00:09:34I will order our intelligence agencies
00:09:38to share the information we have about new Russian
00:09:42aid to the Iranian regime with our allies. We have witnessed
00:09:46Russia conducting intensive satellite surveillance
00:09:50over the Persian Gulf countries and US military bases in the region.
00:09:54These satellite images were then provided to Iran.
00:09:57At the same time, there is clear coordination between Russian
00:10:01satellite images and Iranian attacks. Both before attacks to help
00:10:05plan operations, and after attacks to assess the extent of damage.
00:10:08However, Tehran's problem with Kyiv is not just Iran's military
00:10:12support for Russia. During the 40-day war and the start
00:10:16of Iranian attacks on countries in the Persian Gulf region,
00:10:19Volodymyr Zelensky went on a regional tour to help these countries.
00:10:23Ukraine has been able to build drones in these years
00:10:27that can hunt attacking drones instead of using expensive
00:10:30missiles. Now, Iran claims that
00:10:34Ukraine has military advisors throughout the region,
00:10:38including in Iraq, Iran's backyard. This is not a matter of
00:10:42popular mobilization units. There are cells
00:10:45linked to Ukraine. Now, Ukraine
00:10:49has stationed training teams in some countries in the
00:10:51region, including in northern Iraq, in the Emirates, in Bahrain,
00:10:55in Kuwait, in Saudi Arabia, in
00:10:58Syria. The excuse for this is that
00:11:01they want to set up training teams related to drones and so on.
00:11:05These have now been deployed. Even before the recent war,
00:11:08such meetings had angered the Islamic Republic.
00:11:11Despite these political alignments, the two
00:11:15sides have not yet clashed. But the danger
00:11:18exists. The danger of entangled wars,
00:11:22more actors getting involved, and the blurring of conflict
00:11:25lines from the Bab al-Mandeb Strait and the Red Sea
00:11:29to the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz,
00:11:32the Caspian Sea, and the Black Sea.
00:11:36Parham Ghobadi, BBC. Iranians today have a lower
00:11:39birth rate than 70 years ago. According to data from
00:11:42the Statistical Center of Iran, the birth rate in Iran
00:11:46has reached its lowest level in contemporary history.
00:11:50Studies show that the country's population grew rapidly
00:11:53before the revolution. The growth rate peaked
00:11:57in the late 1970s, but after that,
00:12:01except for a slight increase in the 1990s and 2000s,
00:12:04the birth rate declined sharply. What does the population
00:12:07growth chart of Iran in the last 70 years show?
00:12:11More details in a report by Siavash
00:12:14Ardalan.
00:12:17There was a time when Iranians gave birth to two and a half
00:12:20million babies in one year. Demographically,
00:12:23in the late 1970s, Iran was at its peak.
00:12:26As if with the start of the revolution, a wave of births
00:12:30began. Population growth had started in the 1960s,
00:12:34but it peaked in 1978 and reached its highest
00:12:37level in Iranian history in 1980.
00:12:40Compare that to today. Iran's population growth
00:12:44has reached its lowest level.
00:12:47With people engaged in war and sanctions,
00:12:50economic poverty and despair about the future,
00:12:53one cannot talk about having children. However,
00:12:56the reality is that the reason for population
00:13:00decline is not necessarily economic problems, but
00:13:03rather the lack of knowledge and tools
00:13:07for population control.
00:13:10Deprived provinces like Sistan and Baluchestan, South Khorasan,
00:13:13and Kerman have the highest birth rates in Iran.
00:13:17What has caused Iran, like many other countries
00:13:20in the world, to face a population crisis,
00:13:24is above all the rising level of literacy,
00:13:27the financial independence of women, and the development of urban culture.
00:13:31After the war with Iraq, and during the presidency
00:13:34of Hashemi Rafsanjani, Iran launched a broad
00:13:38population control program and successfully implemented
00:13:41one of the most successful family planning projects.
00:13:45I believe in population growth. One of the rare instances
00:13:49where Ali Khamenei, the former leader of Iran, called it a wrong
00:13:53decision and even blamed himself.
00:13:55During Ahmadinejad's presidency, the tables turned and
00:13:59policies changed. From that time until the end
00:14:02of Ahmadinejad's term, the birth rate in Iran
00:14:06increased very gently. But since
00:14:092015, it has been
00:14:11in free fall. Today, Iran has a middle-aged
00:14:15population. In 30 years, one-third of Iran's
00:14:18total population will be elderly. Government experts
00:14:21predict that in 15 years,
00:14:25the country's population growth will become negative.
00:14:27UN experts say that negative growth
00:14:31will occur in another 35 years.
00:14:33In any case, Iran may
00:14:37one day see a population of 100 million people,
00:14:41but only for a short period and in an
00:14:44aging society. Like Japan, Russia,
00:14:47and European countries that are currently
00:14:50grappling with a population crisis.
00:14:54Siavash.
00:14:57The US President's remarks about canceling new
00:15:01attacks on Iran caused the global oil market to
00:15:04start last week with a price drop. The price of
00:15:08a barrel of North Sea Brent crude oil, which was
00:15:11around $91 at the end of trading last Friday,
00:15:14fell to about $83 last Monday.
00:15:17Meanwhile, Iran's Foreign Ministry said that
00:15:21in negotiations with Oman, the country is seeking to
00:15:25create a single route in the Strait of Hormuz for
00:15:29commercial ships, which would replace the two northern
00:15:32and southern routes of recent months. Behrang
00:15:35Tajdin.
00:15:37Some of the largest oil producers in the Persian Gulf, such
00:15:41as Iraq, are facing problems with their exports. But
00:15:44the very fact that the US did not attack Iran caused the
00:15:48oil market to start the working week with a price
00:15:51drop. We saw that the headline
00:15:55of resuming negotiations caused oil prices to fall by about
00:15:586. We don't know where these talks will lead. This
00:16:01has become a weekly cycle, and oil prices only react
00:16:05to headlines, not
00:16:15the start of the US-Israel war with Iran, which has stopped.
00:16:17Efforts to create a safe passage
00:16:21for ships off the coast of Oman in the southern
00:16:25strait have been fruitless due to Iran's opposition
00:16:29and military threat. This was also contrary to
00:16:32Article 5 of the memorandum of understanding,
00:16:35and the route was unsafe and dangerous in terms
00:16:38of environmental issues, as well as the threat
00:16:41it posed to Iran's national security. Some of the ships
00:16:45that used this route were even carrying military equipment.
00:16:49Under the cover of these giant ships,
00:16:52some frigates were passing through. During
00:16:55this period, negotiations have focused on
00:16:59the southern route, which
00:17:02is a route that passes through the waters of Oman, and the northern
00:17:05route, which passes through
00:17:08the territorial waters of Iran, being converted
00:17:11into an intermediate route that will ensure
00:17:14the considerations and interests of every coastal
00:17:17state. Besides military attacks, the exorbitant
00:17:21cost of insurance and the issue of sanctions have also
00:17:24made the prospect of a quick reopening of Hormuz
00:17:28uncertain. Right now,
00:17:31even the discussion of the strait's traffic returning
00:17:35to pre-war levels is not on the table. The concern
00:18:07The insurance market is already involved and has sent a strong
00:18:11message to the shipping industry that paying
00:18:14fees to Iran will invalidate your insurance policy
00:18:18due to the risk of sanctions and paying money to a sanctioned
00:18:21entity. Meanwhile, the Frankfurt stock
00:18:25index, one of the world's largest stock markets,
00:18:28reached its highest historical figure. A sign
00:18:32that at least some financial markets are not
00:18:36as sensitive to the Iran war and the energy
00:18:39market crisis. Behrang Tajdin, BBC.
00:18:42In a few weeks, the United Nations
00:18:45will have to elect a new Secretary-General
00:18:49for a five-year term. Many say it is time
00:18:53for a woman to lead the organization for the first
00:18:56time. Bahman Kalbasi, our correspondent in New York,
00:19:00reports on the selection process and the competitors
00:19:04who have more time. It may
00:19:37take several weeks. First,
00:19:41each member state of the UN can nominate a candidate
00:19:45for this post. This
00:19:48time, fewer than 10 countries have nominated individuals.
00:19:51The expectation is that they will have a background in diplomacy
00:19:55and management of international institutions. Then,
00:19:58the Security Council will review the work experience
00:20:02and abilities of these individuals. Who will be the next UN Secretary-General
00:20:06will be decided here. At the venue of the Security
00:20:09Council meetings at the United Nations,
00:20:13these non-permanent members
00:20:16of the Council, 10 countries with white ballots,
00:20:19and the permanent members of Britain, Russia, China,
00:20:22the United States, and France with red ballots, will express
00:20:26their opinions on the six or seven individuals who have
00:20:30been nominated for Secretary-General. But it must be determined
00:20:34which of them has the best chance to both get the majority
00:20:37vote and not face opposition from any of the permanent
00:20:41members. This process will continue in this hall for several
00:20:45weeks until a nominee
00:20:46emerges.
00:21:20We have been accepted as an effective mediator. This is
00:21:23the role that the UN must
00:21:25play.
00:21:33The United Nations has had nine Secretaries-General
00:21:36to date, all men. These are their pictures
00:21:40on silk tapestries donated by Iran at one
00:21:43of the entrances to the UN headquarters in New York.
00:21:46Many countries believe that this time, a woman
00:22:40will be nominated for the General Assembly, where all
00:22:43countries have the right to vote. Although this last step is symbolic,
00:22:47as it is expected that representatives of most
00:22:50countries will vote in favor of the nominated
00:22:53individual.
00:22:56The tenth Secretary-General of the United Nations, who after
00:22:59his election will immediately face the super crises of ongoing
00:23:03wars, climate change, and questions about the
00:23:06functionality and effectiveness of the United Nations.
00:23:10Bahman Kalbasi, BBC New York.
00:23:13Misi was five months pregnant when she was told
00:23:17her baby had a rare condition. A condition in which some
00:23:21organs grow outside the fetus's body. This condition
00:23:24is called gastroschisis and is treatable. Although
00:23:28it usually requires several complex surgeries
00:23:31after birth. But the pioneering work of an
00:23:35international team of doctors in Texas allowed Misi's
00:23:38baby, Theo, to undergo surgery while still
00:23:42in the womb. See the report by Fergus Walsh,
00:23:46BBC Medical Editor.
00:24:20growing outside his stomach. It must have been a big shock
00:24:23for you. Yes, it was really terrible,
00:24:27wasn't it? Theo had gastroschisis,
00:24:30a condition that affects one in 3,000 babies
00:24:33born in Britain. This condition usually
00:24:36requires surgery after birth. But Misi was given the opportunity
00:24:40to have surgery during her
00:24:41pregnancy.
00:24:46The only problem was that this surgery was done in Texas, and we had to go to.
00:27:15Thank you for being with us. Until the next program, goodbye.
00:29:53This is BBC Persian Radio.
00:29:56Jahan Nama, a live look at the most important news
00:29:59and events in Iran and the world.
00:30:09Stay with us for the latest developments
00:30:11in
00:30:16Jahan Nama with
00:30:18you.
00:30:23This is London, BBC Radio. 8 PM Tehran.
00:30:26Headlines: Pezeshkian defends negotiation
00:30:30for a desirable agreement. Iran says the reopening
00:30:33of the Strait of Hormuz requires America's
00:30:36acceptance of its conditions. Reports of a warning
00:30:39from the highest US military official about the Iran
00:30:42war. General Kin told Trump's advisors that a way
00:30:46out of this war must be found. In today's program, we ask:
00:30:49What was America's initial plan to exit this war?
00:30:53What impact do such warnings have on the view of Iranian
00:30:57military officials regarding