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00:00:24The deepening recession, with the continuation of the war situation,
00:00:28the economic growth rate of Iran in the spring reached about negative
00:00:3211. We ask an
00:00:34economic analyst what direction the future of Iran's economy is heading in,
00:00:38and what is the way out of this deep economic recession?
00:00:41Also, in tonight's
00:00:43program:
00:00:46Khatam al-Anbiya's warning to the US and its allies regarding
00:00:49a possible attack. At the same time, Trump spoke of a big decision regarding
00:00:53Iran. We ask a
00:00:56former US Army intelligence officer what options Donald Trump has in confronting
00:00:59it, and what he can
00:01:02do? Questions about the reason
00:01:05for Trump's early return to the White House. At the same time, the US
00:01:09issued a security warning to its citizens in West
00:01:13Asia. We ask a strategic affairs analyst if Trump is
00:01:16ready to enter a war against the Houthis for
00:01:20his ally and trading partner Saudi Arabia in the Middle East?
00:01:23The closure of the only official French language
00:01:25examination center in Iran. The judiciary accused
00:01:29this institution of networking
00:01:33for the escape of elites.
00:01:34And
00:01:37the expulsion of three students with charges related to protests. Iran's Ministry of Science
00:01:41says if they express remorse,
00:01:44their sentences will be reduced.
00:01:5860 minutes live.
00:02:07New official statistics show how devastating the US and Israeli attacks and war conditions have been for Iran's economy in the past
00:02:11year. According to the report of the Statistical Center of
00:02:14Iran, the economy has fallen into a deep recession, and the gross
00:02:18domestic product (GDP) has decreased by nearly 11% compared to
00:02:22last year. These assessments show that exports have also
00:02:26decreased by one-third. In addition, in a few months,
00:02:30the US has imposed a strict naval blockade against Iran
00:02:33and increased the intensity and control of sanctions. Alongside these,
00:02:37the annual inflation rate has almost reached 70%.
00:02:40Even before the war, Iran was struggling with severe economic
00:02:43problems, to the point that last December, the fall
00:02:47in the value of the rial against foreign currencies sparked the most widespread
00:02:50and bloody protests in Iran's history.
00:02:54Donald Trump's government has not hidden its intention to collapse Iran's economy.
00:02:58Are things heading in that direction? We'll talk more about this
00:03:02with Behring Tajdin, our economic correspondent.
00:03:05Behring, what do the latest statistics released by the Statistical Center
00:03:09tell us? The quarterly report of the Statistical Center of Iran shows
00:03:13that the war between the US and Israel with Iran and the naval
00:03:16blockade caused a recession. It caused the shrinking of
00:03:20Iran's economy. It caused Iran's economy to, overall, become poorer.
00:03:24Its income decreased. This figure of 10.8% that you
00:03:27see, this means production. Gross domestic product, or
00:03:31the total income of Iran's economy, government, private sector, all of these
00:03:35together, this spring was practically 10.8%
00:03:38less than last spring. But the issue is that we don't
00:03:42see this decrease equally everywhere. That is, in the
00:03:45oil and gas sector, we see that 26% of
00:03:49oil and gas revenue has decreased, or the value of
00:03:53oil and gas extracted in Iran, despite the increase in oil prices,
00:03:56has decreased by approximately 26%.
00:03:59Another sector is agriculture,
00:04:02which last year had negative growth due to drought. This spring, its
00:04:06growth has been positive. But if we exclude oil, other
00:04:09mines and industries had a 5%
00:04:12decrease in production. That is, the value of the
00:04:16product that was produced decreased by 52%,
00:04:19or services decreased by 48%. Overall, even if we exclude
00:04:23oil, the gross domestic product this
00:04:27spring was 46% less than last
00:04:30spring. See, wherever I say production, you can replace
00:04:34it with income, you can replace it with consumption, and
00:04:37this is not the whole story. See, as you
00:04:40also mentioned, the value of Iranian
00:04:44exports this spring was 35.7%
00:04:48less than last spring. See, look, oil prices
00:04:51had gone up, but the amount of oil exported was so little. Now,
00:04:55and petrochemicals and other products, the value of which
00:04:59decreased by 35%. Pay attention, value does not mean
00:05:03the money that was actually deposited into the treasury and available.
00:05:07This is only the value of what left the country. Another
00:05:10interesting point here is
00:05:12this: See, when income decreases, after inflation, the issue is that
00:05:16the amount of consumption, the amount you spend, decreases, right? The amount
00:05:20of things you buy decreases. For the government, it decreased by 17%.
00:05:23But when you look at private consumption, the
00:05:27people and the private sector, you see that the
00:05:30amount of consumption decrease was greater. What does this mean?
00:05:34This means that the blow that this economic
00:05:37recession inflicted on the people was more severe than the blow
00:05:40it inflicted on the government.
00:05:45past, because we know that the issue of economic recession in
00:05:49Iran is not a matter of today or yesterday or this year or last year. Exactly.
00:05:52See this chart of economic growth
00:05:56rates by season. If you look, in the early
00:06:0090s, we had a period of recession, which was the
00:06:03beginning of widespread sanctions, and also around
00:06:072019 and 2020. First, because
00:06:10of the US withdrawal in the first round of Donald Trump's
00:06:14presidency from the JCPOA, and then because of the COVID pandemic. But if
00:06:18you look, that recession of those years,
00:06:21that negative growth of those years, came after a period of
00:06:25significant growth. You see, in one season, even
00:06:28the seasonal growth rate reached over 20%.
00:06:32But that 1.8% recession this spring
00:06:35and more than 2% last winter
00:06:39came after a very, very low growth
00:06:42period. That is, growth was around 2%, 3% at best,
00:06:46sometimes reaching 5%. Okay, so what does this mean?
00:06:50This next chart shows it better. See, as
00:06:54I said, gross domestic product can also
00:06:58be called gross domestic income. If we remove the effect of
00:07:01inflation from it, which is converting it to constant
00:07:05prices of the year 1400 (2021), meaning as if incomes and expenses were at the
00:07:09level of 1400, you see that the
00:07:20amount is well, the problem isn't that it's only decreased a little, only
00:07:23150 trillion Tomans less, less than 10% less compared
00:07:27to those years. The problem is that in these years, Iran's population was around
00:07:3180 million people. Now the population is close to 90
00:07:34million. The population has increased. The total
00:07:38income of Iran's economy has decreased. The result of these two
00:07:42together is that, in fact, the standard of living,
00:07:46the purchasing power of the people and the entire economy, has
00:07:50severely declined, much more than perhaps this 5%
00:07:53or 10% decrease in GDP compared to
00:07:57ten years ago. That is, if we look
00:08:01at the long term, in the long term, the people
00:08:04of Iran, on average, these statistics show how much
00:08:08poorer they have become. Thank you to Behring Tajdin, our infrastructure
00:08:16correspondent, and also development patterns and
00:08:20former economic advisor at the UK Ministry of Transport from London, Mr.
00:08:24Zamani. Welcome to the program.
00:08:27First, I wanted to start from this angle, whether this situation
00:08:31is only related to Iran, or whether the overall
00:08:34global economic situation
00:08:37is in trouble, because we see everywhere there is talk of, for example, gasoline
00:08:41prices going up, diesel prices going up. Food items
00:08:44have become more expensive. To what extent is this
00:08:48influenced by the global situation?
00:08:52Well, other sectors of the global economy are also facing
00:08:56problems. But by no means
00:08:59to the severity of Iran. In Iran's case, the
00:09:02main factor is war. And another
00:09:05point to consider is that 11% figure you
00:09:09mentioned. This is related to the
00:09:13first three months of the year,
00:09:16and there hasn't been enough time
00:09:19for the effect of this economic blockade
00:09:22and naval blockade and subsequent secondary
00:09:26sanctions to be sufficiently reflected in these
00:09:30statistics. In other words, the actual
00:09:33severity of the recession that is forming within
00:09:37the system is much, much more
00:09:40severe than this 10% figure.
00:09:53Some sectors of the economy, for example, react much
00:09:56faster and reflect the intensity of inflation
00:10:00faster than other sectors. For example, take
00:10:04transportation. In the same statistics for the first
00:10:07three months of the year that you
00:10:10mentioned, the transportation sector
00:10:13shows a 17% economic recession.
00:10:17Or, for example, take the warehousing sector. The
00:10:20warehousing sector usually acts as a shock
00:10:24absorber. That is, it absorbs part of the pressure
00:10:27being exerted on the system so
00:10:30that it is not immediately transferred to the rest of
00:10:33the economy. In this same sector, you see that the
00:10:37intensity of the recession was 17%. All
00:10:40of this indicates that the recession that
00:10:43is forming in the system is
00:10:46much beyond 10- 11%, and if
00:10:50the US government can continue this economic blockade
00:10:54and keep Iran's oil exports at
00:10:57200,000-300,000 barrels, the intensity of
00:11:00the economic recession can easily exceed 20% and
00:11:04even more, and this could
00:11:07bring about a very great catastrophe for Iran's
00:11:10economy. You made a good point. These statistics are
00:11:14from three months ago, when the economic blockade was
00:11:18not intensified to that extent. Now, if we
00:11:21consider the current situation,
00:11:25can we say that Iran
00:11:29is very close to the brink
00:11:32of economic collapse, or the economic collapse that
00:11:35Scott Bessent, the US Treasury Secretary, did not hide?
00:11:38He said that one of the goals
00:11:41is this.
00:11:44The system, with the current situation, if the current
00:11:48level of exports, the naval economic blockade of Iran,
00:11:51continues, it is moving rapidly in that direction.
00:11:55For example, consider the government sector. The government's
00:11:59budget is on paper 10% dependent on oil revenue,
00:12:02but in reality, the intensity
00:12:05of this dependence is more than 30%. The reason for this
00:12:09is that the government covers its budget deficit by
00:12:13drawing from the Development Fund, where oil
00:12:16revenues are saved. So it is supplied
00:12:20from there. The dependence on oil
00:12:23revenue is more than 30%. When this revenue decreases
00:12:27from 2 million barrels per day to
00:12:30200 thousand barrels per day,
00:12:34the government practically loses 30% of
00:12:37its budget. In addition to that, 50%
00:12:41of the budget is provided
00:12:44by taxes. When the
00:12:47economy experiences a 20-30% economic recession,
00:12:50it can no longer collect these taxes.
00:12:54The government will face a very
00:12:58severe budget crisis. The government will go bankrupt.
00:13:00Unfortunately, our economy, due
00:13:04to the apocalyptic view that dominates
00:13:07the country's governance system, is
00:13:11rapidly heading towards a very serious
00:13:14catastrophe. When we were reviewing the statistics with
00:13:18Behring, in the past, there have been two or three
00:13:22instances where the recession was almost
00:13:25of the same magnitude. For example, in the early
00:13:2890s, when the sanctions became very
00:13:31severe, and especially
00:13:34Iran's oil and gas were sanctioned, or after Corona and the
00:13:37US withdrawal from the JCPOA,
00:13:41each time they found a way to eventually increase economic
00:13:44growth and make it positive. This time,
00:13:48do you think it's different from previous times? Is the
00:13:52possibility lower?
00:13:59In previous instances, we practically did not have an economic blockade, nor a naval blockade. Now there is a complete
00:14:03naval blockade, and everything depends on whether the
00:14:06US government can maintain Iran's oil
00:14:10exports at this level of 250-
00:14:12300,000 barrels per day.
00:14:16And in this equation, China is a key
00:14:19player, how will it act? If
00:14:23China does not cooperate with the US government
00:14:26and fully goes towards confrontation with
00:14:30the US government, in that case, in the best conditions, Iran
00:14:33can, the Islamic Republic can, have exports of
00:14:37approximately one million barrels, 75,000
00:14:41barrels per day up to one million barrels per day. In that
00:14:45case, the intensity of economic recession will remain
00:14:48around 20%. It might stay on
00:14:51its own two feet, but
00:14:55it will be a very severe, permanent bleeding.
00:14:59However, for China to be willing to go
00:15:02towards confrontation to defend the Islamic Republic
00:15:05and jeopardize its long-term interests in the Middle
00:15:09East and with the US is very, very
00:15:12unlikely. The stronger probability is that China
00:15:16will provide minimal support to the Islamic
00:15:19Republic, in which case, for example, the amount of
00:15:22Iran's oil exports will fluctuate
00:15:29to some extent, in which case we will practically
00:15:31be approaching economic collapse.
00:15:34Now, this.
00:16:37widespread droughts and also
00:16:41proximity to Russia not enough to circumvent these
00:16:44sanctions?
00:16:47To some extent, it can help and reduce its intensity,
00:16:50but the compensation is not enough to
00:16:54completely or significantly reduce
00:16:57that pressure. It might reduce the pressure by
00:17:0110-15%, and in addition, regarding Russia,
00:17:05you should note that Russia,
00:17:08due to the problems it is facing—the Ukraine
00:17:12war, economic sanctions, and so on—is not in a
00:17:15position to provide serious economic assistance
00:17:19to Iran. Most of its assistance will be military,
00:17:23intelligence, and similar aspects,
00:17:26rather than economic. In the economic
00:17:29arena, China is the main player.
00:17:33India also cannot play a serious
00:17:36role. It is very unlikely to jeopardize
00:17:40its own interests in its relationship with the
00:17:43US. As a result, the impact of
00:17:46all these players will be relatively limited,
00:17:49and the severity of the problems that are
00:17:52forming in the economy is very high.
00:17:56On the surface, these figures of 10% and
00:17:5920% may not seem very large, but behind
00:18:03these figures lie the lives
00:18:06and deaths of millions of Iranians.
00:18:09There is a close and direct relationship
00:18:13between economic growth rates and the population
00:18:16below the poverty line. For example,
00:18:20internationally, every 1%
00:18:22increase in economic growth causes the population
00:18:26below the poverty line to increase
00:18:30by 7%. This relationship in Iran,
00:18:34this 0.7% is a global average. In
00:18:37Iran, the intensity of this dependence between
00:18:41the economic growth rate and the population below
00:18:44the poverty line is much, much more severe, such
00:18:48that, for example, a 20% recession can
00:18:52easily increase the country's population below the poverty
00:18:55line by 20% or even more, in a situation
00:18:59where, according to government statistics, about 30%
00:19:03to 40% of the population is below the poverty
00:19:06line. Such a leap in the population below
00:19:10the poverty line due to the economic
00:19:14recession that is forming in the system
00:19:17can endanger the lives of millions of Iranians. Thank you, Mr.
00:19:20Zamani. Hadi Zamani, an expert on infrastructure projects and
00:19:23development patterns.
00:19:26In Iran, Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters says
00:19:29it has obtained information that the US, with the support
00:19:33of some Middle Eastern countries, is preparing to resume its attack
00:19:36on Iran. This high military body warned about
00:19:40the consequences of such an attack. At the same time, according
00:19:44to Fox News, Donald Trump announced a very big decision
00:19:47regarding Iran. He welcomed the idea of meeting with Massoud
00:19:51Pezeshkian on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, but at the same
00:19:55time said he was thinking about whether to bomb
00:19:59Iran, and how to do it. Shabnam Majidi
00:20:02reports that in these circumstances, diplomatic efforts
00:20:06are still ongoing to end the conflict.
00:20:11Donald Trump cut short his weekend vacation at Camp
00:20:15David last night and returned to the White House
00:20:18earlier than expected, without announcing a reason for
00:20:22this decision. Fox News says he stated he has a big
00:20:25decision ahead. On the one hand, he threatened, asking when
00:20:29to blow up all of Iran, and warned Tehran to
00:20:33behave properly. On the other hand, he said he welcomes
00:20:37the idea of meeting with the Iranian president on the sidelines of the UN
00:20:41General Assembly. At the same time, a number of US
00:20:45embassies in West Asia issued an emergency
00:20:47security alert. Khatam al-Anbiya headquarters had previously
00:20:51issued a warning statement regarding recent movements.
00:20:54If the US makes a mistake against Islamic Iran,
00:20:57all the deployment centers and interests of that country
00:21:01in the region will be subject to continuous, effective, and
00:21:05painful attacks without any limitations or considerations. These
00:21:09warnings are issued while yesterday the Houthis announced
00:21:12they attacked sensitive targets in Riyadh with missiles
00:21:15and drones. The first retaliatory attack by Yemen's Ansar Allah
00:21:18on Riyadh. Agence France-Presse says an
00:21:22Aramco oil company fuel tank near the airport
00:21:26caught fire, but Saudi Arabia says it intercepted
00:21:29and destroyed the missile fired at Riyadh. The US
00:21:33has avoided direct involvement in this front until today.
00:21:36But now, with threats reaching the Saudi capital, new
00:21:40questions arise for this Riyadh ally.
00:21:44The strategic point of the port of Mocha, which the Houthis captured
00:21:47weeks ago, may now witness renewed
00:21:51clashes. Residents are also more worried.
00:21:55We are tired of the planes
00:21:58bombing us day and night. We don't even have a moment
00:22:02of peace. But what can we do?
00:22:06They are all fighting against us. They are all against
00:22:09Islam and Muslims, especially against Yemen.
00:22:12The US and all of them. We ask God
00:22:15to save us from this situation.
00:22:17Greshmeler
00:22:20At the same time, efforts for negotiations are also
00:22:24underway. The Turkish Foreign Minister says they are working
00:22:27with several other countries on new proposals to end the war.
00:22:31The Pakistani Interior Minister is also expected to visit
00:22:34Tehran today. Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of Iran's
00:22:38Supreme National Security Council, told Al Jazeera Arabic yesterday
00:22:42that Iran's conditions, including an end to the war on all fronts,
00:22:45the release of Iran's assets, and an end to the naval blockade,
00:22:49have been announced to the US, and they are awaiting a response.
00:22:53The duality of war or negotiation is not real, and one must
00:22:57both fight and negotiate. The enemy knows very
00:23:00well that the path of deception and unilateral
00:23:04imposition is closed, and as long as these conditions
00:23:07are not met and the rightful
00:23:11rights of the Iranian nation are not recognized,
00:23:14and the commitments of the Americans are
00:23:18not fulfilled, there will be no window
00:23:22for a return to previous conditions of negotiation
00:23:25and the opening of the Strait of Hormuz.
00:23:28And it seems that this waterway, to which the fate
00:23:32of the world economy is tied, will remain closed until that
00:23:35day. Shabnam Majidi, BBC.
00:23:38Sheida Hooshmandi, our correspondent, is with
00:23:42us from Washington. Sheida, what is Mr.
00:23:44Trump's situation? Is it clear what he wants
00:23:48to do? What can be understood
00:23:52from his latest statements? What we understand from
00:23:54the news and developments in the region is that things
00:23:58are happening, but Mr. Trump seems not to want to
00:24:02reveal to others what his next step is.
00:24:06We see that when he talks to a Fox reporter,
00:24:09he talks about various options, and these are options that
00:24:13have always been on the table: to eliminate Iran,
00:24:17the second option is to reach an agreement with them,
00:24:20and the third option is to let it collapse due to
00:24:24its bad economic situation. And then he talks
00:24:27about being willing to meet with Mr. Pezeshkian
00:24:30at the UN General Assembly meeting, which
00:24:33starts next week. So, on the one hand,
00:24:37he leaves the door open for diplomacy, and on the other
00:24:41hand, he talks about escalating tensions.
00:24:44This is very similar to what he told Axios
00:24:48a few days ago, and
00:24:50it seems that he has adopted the same approach
00:24:54regarding the Houthis and Saudi Arabia. That is,
00:24:57on the one hand, he says the Houthis of Yemen are
00:25:00in contact with us and tell Washington that they have
00:25:03no business with the Americans. On the other hand, he
00:25:07cooperates with Saudi Arabia to control the Houthis,
00:25:10or to have a confrontation with them. At the same
00:25:14time, it seems that at least publicly, he does
00:25:17not want to enter into
00:25:20a direct confrontation, but he also does not rule
00:25:23it out. Today, we hear from Mike Walls,
00:25:27the US representative to the UN, who goes on the
00:25:31program Face the Nation and says that when
00:25:34he is asked about the US approach towards the
00:25:37Houthis and whether Washington is willing to enter
00:25:41into a direct confrontation, he does not deny it and
00:25:44says that a decision is on the way.
00:25:47In the meantime, we have heard from
00:25:50various sources that he has cut short
00:25:54his stay at Camp David and returned to
00:25:58Washington. The discussion is about Yemen and the Houthis,
00:26:01and he probably wants to make an important
00:26:05decision in this regard. On the other hand,
00:26:08there are many holidays in the region.
00:26:10In any case, there is always a possibility
00:26:14that tensions will escalate. On the occasion
00:26:17of this, in fact, Jewish holidays, and so it is
00:26:21that perhaps the warnings that are being
00:26:25issued are related to the fact that tensions should
00:26:28subside a little. But what is certain is
00:26:32that both sides are ready for a confrontation
00:26:36or escalation of tensions. The decision that Mr.
00:26:39Trump has made is to keep his cards close
00:26:43to his chest for now, and to keep all options open.
00:26:45Thank you, Sheida Hooshmandi,
00:26:48our correspondent in Washington. William Putnam,
00:26:52former US Army intelligence officer, and also former
00:26:56national security researcher at the John F. Kennedy School
00:26:59of Government at Harvard University. Mr. Putnam also
00:27:03served in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Kosovo. Welcome to the
00:27:07program. In your opinion, what can Mr. Trump do, or
00:27:10what options does he have
00:27:12in confronting Iran in the current
00:27:19situation? First of all, thank
00:27:21you for inviting me. I think
00:27:25we need to look at the current situation
00:27:29and see where we stand after 7 months of this
00:27:32war. I think Washington and Tehran both want to
00:27:36reach an agreement, but the situation has reached
00:27:39a point where neither side is willing to make concessions.
00:27:43We know that military actions, as
00:27:46well as economic pressure and diplomacy, all of
00:27:50these are ultimately aimed at reaching a political
00:27:53solution. But to change the
00:27:55strategy of our opponent,
00:27:59the situation is such that the more pressure
00:28:02the US exerts, and
00:28:05for example, imagine there's a dial to increase
00:28:09and decrease pressure, Iran is also trying to show
00:28:13that it has more endurance. The more pressure
00:28:16increases, the more Iran increases pressure
00:28:20in the region. Attacks on Saudi
00:28:23Arabia, what the Houthis are doing to Saudi Arabia,
00:28:26what is happening in Iraq, and even in Lebanon,
00:28:30they are trying to create more pressure in the Red Sea.
00:28:38The cost of these pressures is greater than the cost
00:28:41of making concessions, and it hasn't reached that point
00:28:44yet, it seems. What Mr. Trump can do is
00:28:48to increase military pressure, launch new attacks,
00:28:52given that the blockade is working, although Iran has
00:28:56shown in the past that it can cope with sanctions,
00:28:59it has never had a naval blockade. That naval
00:29:03blockade has indeed been successful, in my opinion.
00:29:06Maybe that naval blockade is successful,
00:29:09but it doesn't change Tehran's calculations. The main
00:29:13question Mr. Trump faces is what needs
00:29:16to happen in his view
00:29:19to change Iran's calculations and bring
00:29:23them to the negotiating table, and for them
00:29:26to agree to a deal that allows the Strait of Hormuz
00:29:29to be fully open. And at the same
00:29:43time, it seems that the Iranian side is willing to return to the Islamabad
00:29:47agreement. He talks about it. Mr. Trump says
00:29:50that no, I do not I don't have a problem
00:29:54now where is it, for example, if they want to return
00:29:58to the same memorandum of understanding, is that framework
00:30:01enough to say. Can both sides
00:30:04agree on it and is it a basis for dialogue and
00:30:08agreement?
00:30:15This possibility exists.
00:30:18Yes, now Iran sees
00:30:22that Islamabad agreement as a basis which is
00:30:25interesting, but there is an important issue . The United States
00:30:29and Washington.
00:30:34had a misunderstanding
00:30:37of this memorandum of understanding and
00:30:41the sequence of actions
00:30:43in it.
00:30:46One moment, excuse me, if we look
00:30:49at the issue that we
00:30:52have now.
00:30:55The issue is that the United States and Iran.