Google Cloud Speech-to-Text API (Chirp) + Gemini 2.5 Flash Non-Thinking. Treat it as a searchable index of what was broadcast, not a quotation record.
00:00:30How can they achieve victory
00:00:32in Texas?
00:00:39Welcome to the ABCs of the US elections, a BBC Persian podcast.
00:00:43I'm Sameh Farzaneh.
00:00:46The system of government in the US is representative
00:00:50democracy or electoral populism,
00:00:53or something similar to that.
00:00:56This means that people themselves are responsible
00:01:00However, since it's practically impossible for everyone to express their opinions
00:01:04on everything and vote,
00:01:07they elect representatives
00:01:10to carry out decision-making
00:01:13in various capacities.
00:01:16The legitimacy of these individuals,
00:01:19these politicians, comes from the votes
00:01:23people give them, saying, "Madam/Sir, now go to the
00:01:27village council, be the mayor,
00:01:30be a member of parliament, the state legislature,
00:01:32the Senate, or the President, and
00:01:36do these things for us."
00:01:39Now, let's think of a situation where,
00:01:42instead of people choosing politicians, it's the politicians
00:01:46who choose the people
00:01:50they are going to represent.
00:01:53This creates a strange
00:01:56situation, and it's interesting
00:01:59that in American elections, this issue
00:02:02happens quite often, they even have a word
00:02:06for it: gerrymandering. Remember, our plan was that
00:02:09in each program, we would discuss
00:02:13something as a question
00:02:16at the beginning, and then answer it later. It's not
00:02:20a very important thing, but it's interesting to know.
00:02:23This time, let's think about
00:02:27the etymology of gerrymandering. What is it? Where
00:02:31did it come from? We'll talk about it at the end
00:02:34of the program. Leyla Khodabakhshi, one of the BBC
00:02:38English correspondents who works in the US, is with us.
00:02:42Leyla, you've worked on this very gerrymandering issue,
00:02:46you know about it.
00:02:48Let's talk a little about what gerrymandering is.
00:02:52First, a brief explanation
00:02:54from me: we have electoral
00:02:57districts in Congress.
00:03:03In the Senate, it doesn't make sense because
00:03:07senators represent the entire state.
00:03:11But gerrymandering becomes important in the House of Representatives,
00:03:14right? Gerrymandering,
00:03:18in fact, means manipulating
00:03:20the boundaries of electoral districts
00:03:24so that the outcome of the vote benefits
00:03:27one political group. It's a bit complicated;
00:03:30I'll explain it. Imagine that in
00:03:33a state, specifically, for example,
00:03:3740% of voters support the Democratic Party,
00:03:40and 60% support the Republican Party.
00:03:44Depending on how electoral districts are drawn in that
00:03:48state, the number of seats
00:03:51each of these parties wins can
00:03:55change. For example,
00:03:59there are usually two methods.
00:04:01One is to concentrate the supporters of one party
00:04:05in one electoral district. For example, in that
00:04:0940-60 scenario,
00:04:11they might put about 30% of the supporters
00:04:15of, say, the Democratic Party, into one electoral district.
00:04:18In that case, in one district, the Democratic
00:04:21Party wins decisively, but loses
00:04:25in three or four other districts, and as a result,
00:04:29the number of seats it wins is fewer. Another method
00:04:32of gerrymandering is to disperse the supporters of one
00:04:36party so widely that they are in all districts, but their number is so
00:04:40small that they lose. For example, in this case,
00:04:44the supporters of the conservative party, who are 60%,
00:04:47are so dispersed that they are in, say, five or six
00:04:51districts, but with a very small minority,
00:04:54they can't become a majority. They lose with a small minority
00:04:58in those districts. Well, yes. As you said, it only makes sense
00:05:01for the House of Representatives, where in the US,
00:05:05people vote based on the districts
00:05:08they are assigned to. And generally,
00:05:12they don't do this every
00:05:14year; they don't manipulate electoral districts
00:05:18every 10 years. You see, every 10 years,
00:05:22in years like
00:05:23'20, '30, '40,
00:05:26they count the number of people.
00:05:30The 2020 census was the last census
00:05:33conducted in the US. It was expected that this review
00:05:37of electoral districts would take place in 2023.
00:05:41It would be the year after, for example, 2031, because
00:05:44the results won't be out until then. Then, based on
00:05:48the population of each state, Congress determines how many
00:05:51representatives each state can have.
00:05:55Usually, over these 10 years, some states' populations
00:05:58increase or decrease, and the numbers change a little.
00:06:02For example, in 2020, I think Texas gained seats,
00:06:05and California lost some. Then, this is given to the state,
00:06:09saying, "State, you determine how you want to divide
00:06:12these, say, 9, 50 people."
00:06:16And this becomes the responsibility
00:06:20of that state to do this. Right?
00:06:23For example, in the recent disputes from last
00:06:26year to this year, in various
00:06:30states, the Supreme Court has generally not intervened
00:06:33(except for one or two cases) and usually sends it back
00:06:36to the state itself. And as you said, this is because
00:06:40the decennial censuses reveal the population.
00:06:45So that the elections are fair,
00:06:48they review the boundaries of the electoral districts
00:06:51and redefine them from scratch.
00:06:55But well, this is another one of those surprises
00:06:58that happens in the US. This year, they've decided
00:07:02to... Yes, we'll talk about this, but first, let me say that
00:07:06drawing these maps itself is not
00:07:09gerrymandering; it's a duty. You have to draw the map.
00:07:35They decided to do this. What was the reason?
00:07:38In fact, the conservative party, which supports Mr. Trump,
00:07:42has a very fragile majority in the House of Representatives.
00:07:45And in this midterm election that will be held on November
00:07:493rd this year, if they lose a few seats, they will actually lose
00:07:53the majority in the House of Representatives, and then
00:07:56they will have problems with the budget because they don't have the majority
00:08:00for many laws they want to pass, bills that go to Congress will face problems.
00:08:04In addition, the results of many polls that have come
00:08:07out indicate that Mr. Trump's popularity
00:08:10is decreasing. For example, Mr. Trump's popularity
00:08:14has dropped by 30%, but in the end,
00:08:18Mr. Trump started this matter with Texas,
00:08:22and when they started gerrymandering in Texas,
00:08:25they actually manipulated the electoral districts
00:08:28in Texas to reduce the Democrats' seats and increase the Republicans'.
00:08:32Yes, for example, in Texas, they predict that about 5 seats
00:08:36will be added to the supporters
00:08:39of the conservative party due to the manipulation.
00:08:43And well, when this happened in Texas, in California,
00:08:47which is a Democratic state, and Mr.
00:08:50Gavin Newsom, who is their governor, started gerrymandering and
00:08:54manipulating these electoral districts in California, so that in
00:08:57California, about (again, according
00:09:00to predictions) a number of seats will be added to the Democratic
00:09:03supporters in California.
00:09:07And well, this was the beginning of this story, and they started
00:09:11it in all other states as well, for example, in Ohio,
00:09:15in Florida, and Utah, and even
00:09:18Missouri. One of the interesting things that happened in Missouri was that
00:09:22it went back and forth between this court and that court. Now,
00:09:26not now, but about a month ago, I remember some
00:09:29people were saying, "We don't even know what to print on the ballot,
00:09:33whose name should be here?" And they were facing
00:09:36fundamental problems in that state. Let me tell you something interesting.
00:09:40One of these research centers
00:09:42at a university says that out of 435
00:09:46House of Representatives seats, the fate
00:09:49of 352 is already completely decided.
00:09:53Either a Democrat takes it, or a Republican, either because of
00:09:56gerrymandering or because that area simply has
00:10:00a lot of people who support that party.
00:10:03Another think tank
00:10:06found that the fate of 361
00:10:09seats is already decided. And when they say,
00:10:12those who are most likely and very likely, and let's
00:10:16put those aside, the dispute is over 20-30 seats.
00:10:20That is, in such a large country,
00:10:22435 seats
00:10:28determine which party has the upper hand
00:10:31in Congress. Yes, this really goes back to the point
00:10:34you made earlier, which is whether people elect representatives
00:10:38or representatives actually manipulate things in a way,
00:10:42because gerrymandering, in a sense, is not manipulating or changing
00:10:46people's votes, but it changes
00:10:49the outcome of the election and the number of seats
00:10:52each party gets. And one
00:10:56of the biggest criticisms is that it really
00:11:00erodes trust between people
00:11:03and parties. It destroys trust in the election results
00:11:06when electoral districts are manipulated in such a way
00:11:10that the outcome is almost known beforehand.
00:11:13It also significantly reduces competition
00:11:15among political parties, as you pointed
00:11:19out. This competition is eliminated.
00:11:23Many political scientists
00:11:25are concerned, and then they face another problem.
00:11:29You think, who wants to fix this? A member of parliament
00:11:33who came into parliament through this very method wants to fix this?
00:11:36It creates a cycle.
00:11:39Now, I was listening to an interview
00:11:42with one of these political scientists, and he said that it really needs
00:11:46to become a national demand, whether Republican or
00:11:49Democrat, whose vote is broken up this way.
00:11:53He needs to demand this from politicians, and this national demand
00:11:57must take shape so that there are some laws to stop
00:12:00this. Because what happens when we have
00:12:04gerrymandering is that in the elections,
00:12:08the election on November 3rd, or any day in
00:12:11November, doesn't matter anymore.
00:12:14The primaries become important, who within the party
00:12:18we want to bring up. And in internal party elections,
00:12:22for Democrats, it's usually the very leftists.
00:12:25For Republicans, it's usually the very rightists.
00:12:28These are the ones who can win votes. And then, for people who are so far
00:12:32from the center, it becomes very difficult for them to reach a consensus
00:12:35in the middle. That's right. The serious
00:12:39harm of gerrymandering is that
00:12:41you might have a larger
00:12:45absolute number of supporters for a particular
00:12:48party in different states, but ultimately,
00:12:51with this manipulation, the opposite result occurs.
00:12:55The number of representatives for the party with fewer supporters
00:12:58might be higher, and representation for the majority
00:13:02no longer happens. And this is one
00:13:05of the biggest criticisms against it.
00:13:09However, it must be said that gerrymandering is not illegal
00:13:12in the US. In some cases, it could be illegal
00:13:16if, for example, racial minorities were excluded.
00:13:20But with the changes made by the Supreme Court, that is no
00:13:23longer an issue. Thank you very much,
00:13:27Leyla. Leyla Khodabakhshi.
00:13:30But let's return to the first question of the program,
00:13:33which was about the etymology of gerrymandering.
00:13:37This word was coined by a newspaper in the state
00:13:40of Massachusetts, USA,
00:13:44in 1812. The story is that the state
00:13:47of Massachusetts had a governor
00:13:50who later became Vice President. His name was
00:13:54Elbridge Gerry. Mr.
00:13:57Gerry drew a map, actually approved a map
00:14:00for the elections, where an electoral district
00:14:04was created to benefit his own party.
00:14:07And this Massachusetts newspaper
00:14:10imagined that this map, this piece of this
00:14:13electoral district, looked like
00:14:16a salamander, that animal that resembles
00:14:20a lizard. Then they drew a cartoon
00:14:23on this map, making that electoral
00:14:27district look like a salamander
00:14:31with a dragon's head. They also coined
00:14:35a word, putting Gerry next to "salamander,"
00:14:39which means salamander,
00:14:41and thus created the word
00:14:44"gerrymander." Thank you for watching
00:14:48or listening to us. We will be back
00:14:52to talk more about the ins and outs
00:14:55of the US elections. Be well.
00:14:58and happy. This week, on Rang Ahang,
00:15:02we're going to talk about one of the new sounds that has emerged from the combination
00:15:04of Western classical music
00:15:07and Iranian culture. Also, we'll go back to nostalgia and the atmosphere
00:15:10of intimate and small concerts
00:15:13held in people's living rooms. And finally, we'll take a look at the latest
00:15:17work by Abadi, with lyrics by Mullah Ghorzi.
00:15:19So Mr. Paxson is not a very popular
00:15:23person. So we need to consider
00:15:26all three together. But certainly, the first two are more important.
00:15:29That is, the poor state
00:15:32of Republicans in the American political
00:15:36landscape after this war and economic
00:15:39situation, and that this representative,
00:15:43this person the Republicans nominated,
00:15:46has a very bad record.
00:15:50And the third is that Mr.
00:15:53Talarico is also a nominee.
00:15:56If it were not
00:15:59for the first two, Mr. Talarico
00:16:03would not have been able to win in Texas,
00:16:07even if he were Jesus Christ.
00:16:09But when you put these three
00:16:13together, it's what has given the Democrats
00:16:16hope that a storm is brewing,
00:16:19and this storm can, with a small
00:16:23difference, it's hard to imagine
00:16:26Mr. Taleh winning by a large margin.
00:16:30But if he wins, which is still a big
00:16:34if, and millions of dollars are being spent
00:16:37against him by Republicans in advertising,
00:16:41if all of this does not have an
00:16:44effect and he wins, with a very small
00:16:47margin, he can probably
00:16:51break the curse of Texas that has lasted
00:16:55for several decades. Why is Mr. Paxson
00:16:59not popular? There are many reasons,
00:17:02but the most important is that Mr. Paxson,
00:17:06in his capacity as Attorney General
00:17:09of Texas, has been impeached
00:17:13by his own party members.
00:17:17You rarely see a party in the American
00:17:20political space impeach a prominent
00:17:24figure of their own party. That is, the corruption
00:17:26and accusations of corruption must be so severe
00:17:30that they no longer think it is in their interest
00:17:33to defend a person in power.
00:18:08Mr. Paxson is not a very popular
00:18:11person. You have to look at all three together.
00:18:15But certainly, the first two are more important.
00:18:18That is, the poor situation of Republicans in the American
00:18:22political space after this war and economic
00:18:25situation, and that this nominee of the Republicans
00:18:29has a very bad record.
00:18:32And the third is that Mr.
00:18:36Talarico is also a candidate.
00:19:04who usually have a bad relationship with religion in the political
00:19:07sphere. But if those first two weren't
00:19:11there, Mr. Talarico,
00:19:13even if he were Christ himself, probably couldn't win
00:19:17in Texas. But really, when you put these three
00:19:21together, it's what has made Democrats hopeful
00:19:24that a storm is brewing, and this storm can,
00:19:28with a small margin... it's hard to imagine
00:19:31Mr. Telle winning by a large margin. But if he wins,
00:19:35which is still a big if, and millions
00:19:38of dollars are being spent against him in advertising,
00:19:42if all this does not work and he wins,
00:19:45he can probably break the decades-long
00:19:48curse of Texas with a very small margin.
00:19:50Why
00:19:53are Mr. Paxson's problems not popular?
00:19:56There are many, but the most important is that Mr. Paxson,
00:19:59in his capacity as Attorney General
00:20:02of Texas, was impeached by his own party
00:20:06members. You rarely see
00:20:10a party in the American political sphere impeach
00:20:13a prominent figure of its own party. That is, the corruption
00:20:17and accusations of corruption must be so severe
00:20:20that they no longer think it's in their interest
00:20:23to defend a person in power. Serious financial corruption charges,
00:20:27even in the agreement he made
00:20:30to release someone accused of child sexual abuse.
00:20:34And beyond that, there are images of Mr. Paxson,
00:20:38for example, stealing someone's expensive pen,
00:20:41a valuable pen, at the airport.
00:20:44And his entire image is on camera,
00:20:48where he passes through the area where
00:20:51people's belongings are checked, passes through the check machine,
00:20:55and this pen belongs to someone else. It was an expensive
00:20:58pen, a thousand-dollar pen or something, he puts it in his pocket and leaves.
00:21:02And such images, for example, in the Senate
00:21:05elections, have been very much used
00:21:08by Mr. Paxson's opponent, the Democrats,
00:21:12who say, "This man, regardless of his views,
00:21:15is a thief. I don't know,
00:21:19he has come to terms with someone accused of child sexual abuse,
00:21:22and his own party members wanted to impeach him
00:21:26for financial corruption." One of the strange
00:21:29things about Paxson is that Mr.
00:21:31Trump supports him.
00:21:35I've seen him say a few times, "He's not very handsome,
00:21:38not well-dressed, etc. I don't know how
00:21:42he works." For example, what do Mr. Trump's supporters
00:21:46think? What kind of way is this to sell
00:21:50a candidate, to say he doesn't speak well, isn't handsome, isn't well-dressed,
00:21:53but you should still vote for him?
00:21:56Well, first, let's remember that Mr. Trump
00:22:00didn't need to go to Texas for his own election
00:22:04because Texas was already in his favor and he didn't need
00:22:08to motivate voters. But Mr. Paxson's situation
00:22:11is so bad that Mr. Trump has gone to this state a couple of times.
00:22:14But as you say, in his praise of Mr.
00:22:17Paxson, saying to vote for him, he actually
00:22:21attributes some negative qualities to him, like being poorly dressed, or other things
00:22:25he says about him. But in a way,
00:22:29he wants to tell the voters that these flaws
00:22:32that we all know about Mr. Paxson,
00:22:36let's accept them, but still vote for him because there's a more important issue,
00:22:39and that's keeping this seat. Let's remember that psychologically,
00:22:43it's not just about one seat.
00:22:46Republicans' philosophy of governing a state
00:22:50and governing the country,
00:22:54a large part of it, they promote by referring
00:22:57to Texas. They say, "Look how Texas's
00:23:01population is growing, people are migrating there from other states.
00:23:04The system there, where taxes are lower, is so much better
00:23:08than, for example, California, where taxes are higher, or Democrats
00:23:12govern it." And as a result, this is
00:23:16a model for Republicans. The fall of Texas and its falling into the hands
00:23:34This election, in which Senator John Cornyn,
00:23:37who had represented Texas for many
00:23:41years, was sort of thrown
00:23:45out, due to some things he had said about Mr. Trump.
00:23:48Mr. Trump did not support him
00:23:51and leaned towards Mr. Paxton.
00:23:55And ultimately, the Republican nomination
00:23:59went to Paxton. That is, Mr. Trump
00:24:03wanted to settle some scores in these two years with
00:24:06a few Republicans who didn't necessarily
00:24:09oppose him, but were not 100%
00:24:13with him on every issue.
00:24:16And this act of revenge, perhaps if the Democrats
00:24:20win in Texas, if Mr. Talarico wins
00:24:23in Texas, it will turn into an own
00:24:27goal. In fact, because of this
00:24:30so-called fire he has for taking revenge
00:24:33on those who were not completely loyal to him,
00:24:36he came to support a candidate who, in the internal
00:24:40party dispute, replaced someone who could have
00:24:43won the election more easily. And now, if Mr. Paxton loses,
00:24:47many will look at Mr. Trump and many
00:25:20of the things he says might be the concoction
00:25:23that gets him across the finish line successfully,
00:25:27because he's not saying, "I'm just like those Democrats
00:25:31in Washington or New York."
00:25:34He's saying, "I'm different and I will represent
00:25:37Texas, and I won't be just
00:25:40a partisan actor." This distancing himself
00:25:44from Republicans and his fellow Democrats
00:25:47might help him to win. Thank you,
00:25:50Bahman, Bahman Kalbasi. But let's go back to the first
00:25:54question of the program, which was about the etymology
00:25:57of gerrymandering. This word was invented
00:26:01by a Massachusetts newspaper
00:26:05in 1812. The story is that the state
00:26:08of Massachusetts had a governor who later
00:26:12became Vice President. His name was Elbridge
00:26:16Gerry. Mr. Gerry drew a map,
00:26:20actually approved a map for the elections,
00:26:24where an electoral district was created to benefit his own party.
00:26:27And this Massachusetts newspaper
00:26:30imagined that this map, this piece of this electoral
00:26:33district, looked like a salamander,
00:26:37that animal that resembles a lizard. Then they drew a cartoon
00:26:40that depicted that electoral district on the map
00:26:43as a salamander with a dragon's head.
00:26:47They also coined a word, putting Gerry next to "salamander,"
00:26:51which means salamander, and thus created
00:26:55the word "gerrymander." Thank you for watching
00:26:58or listening to us. We will be back
00:27:01to talk more about the ins and outs
00:27:04of the US elections.
00:27:05Be well.