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00:00:31The judicial dispute in Poland continues to escalate. What is the real reason behind the chaos outside the Constitutional Court?
00:00:34What is the reason behind the public escalation of the conflict between the president and the prime minister?
00:00:38How will this constitutional crisis end?
00:00:42What impact will it have on the political situation in Poland?
00:00:46The EU is getting involved in Polish politics. What will a series of
00:00:49upheavals bring to the EU? Why has the White House, which has always been
00:00:53dissatisfied with the European establishment, chosen to keep a low profile at this time?
00:00:57Please watch Global Vision.
00:01:06Good evening, everyone. Welcome to the live broadcast of Global
00:01:09Vision on the news channel. I am Huang Feng. From the evening of October 30th until today, the
00:01:13judicial dispute in Poland is still escalating. This battle for control of the court,
00:01:17which seems to be centered on the leadership of the court, why did it escalate into a direct confrontation
00:01:21between the president and the prime minister? Over the past ten years, the intensifying struggle between the left and right, is
00:01:25it the underlying cause of this dispute? What signals
00:01:29does the EU's urgent statement reveal? Against the backdrop of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and European
00:01:33turmoil, how will this domestic dispute in Poland end?
00:01:36For these topics, we have invited Professor Wang Shuo of the School of International Relations at Beijing Foreign
00:01:40Studies University and special commentator Su Xiaohui to our
00:01:44studio today. Welcome, both of you. First, let's watch a short video
00:01:48to learn about the latest developments in the Polish judicial dispute.
00:01:50Recently, the dispute over
00:01:54judicial control between Polish President Andrzej Duda and the government led by Prime Minister Donald
00:01:58Tusk continues.
00:02:30It is said that some judges refused to participate because they did not recognize the legality of the meeting.
00:02:33The meeting may not be able to pass valid resolutions due to insufficient attendance.
00:02:37Polish Prime Minister Tusk posted on social media on the 2nd
00:02:41that the conflict in the Constitutional Court can be resolved without amending the
00:02:45constitution. He pointed out that the president should recognize the judges legally
00:02:48elected by the House of Representatives. However, Polish President
00:02:52Duda cited the law on the status of Constitutional Court judges, which stipulates that judges
00:02:56must take an oath to the president, believing that the oath procedure is necessary.
00:03:09On the same day, the President of the Polish Supreme Court, Małgorzata Gersdorf, convened a special plenary session of the High
00:03:13Court judges, scheduled for the 3rd to state a clear position on the situation surrounding the Constitutional
00:03:17Court. Gersdorf stressed that the Supreme Court cannot remain indifferent
00:03:21to the completely illegal actions of the executive power. He said
00:03:25this is the first time such a situation has occurred in Poland
00:03:28since 1981. On October
00:03:3030th in the evening, the president and
00:03:33vice-president of the Polish Constitutional Court were suspended. In the early morning of the 31st,
00:03:36Polish President Duda, who had rushed back to the country, entered the Constitutional Court
00:03:40building and had a fierce confrontation with some judges, even
00:03:44physically pushing and shoving at one point. The Presidential Office and some judges accused each other of
00:03:48illegal behavior. According to the Polish News Agency, Duda
00:03:52subsequently left the court building, but some judges remained in the
00:03:55building. The chaos can be seen from the public's reaction.
00:04:00because we really don't know who is a judge, who is a
00:04:03neo-judge, such chaos has been introduced that in reality, since then, Poland's total opposition to the court's judicial appointment problem,
00:04:20the Polish court is the core of judicial review, holding the final say on whether laws are legal.
00:04:27Since this year,
00:05:02from October 30th until now, we can see that Poland's judicial
00:05:06dispute is still in an escalating process, and many
00:05:10people are very surprised by this.
00:06:13So he has already started this kind of judicial reform, and more importantly, he wants to
00:06:16uphold the independence of Poland's judiciary. This, of course, was met with extreme
00:06:20dissatisfaction from the EU. By 2013, when Tusk's
00:06:24so-called pro-EU faction came to power and controlled the parliament,
00:06:28they began to backtrack, and more importantly, they wanted to gain the EU's understanding, especially
00:06:32to restore EU aid to Poland. This is, of course, very important for Poland's economy.
00:06:35But this kind of backtracking has now affected
00:06:39the current, as we say, the newly appointed president.
00:07:42What we see is the escalation and continuous development of the current conflict,
00:07:46which actually reflects that Poland itself, in terms of its political
00:07:50system, does indeed have some deep-seated problems. You mentioned
00:07:54this semi-presidential system. In fact, we know that Poland implements a parliamentary
00:07:57democratic system. For the prime minister and the government, they
00:08:01govern by virtue of their majority seats in parliament. However,
00:08:05at this time, the president is the head of state, and similarly, the president also
00:08:09has considerable power. This power is specifically manifested in that
00:08:12if parliament passes a bill, the president has the power to
00:08:16exercise a veto. Similarly, he can also submit the relevant
00:08:20bill to the Constitutional Court for review.
00:08:24At this time, parliament must respond. If
00:08:28they want to overturn the president's veto, they need three-fifths of the
00:08:31seats, which is a relatively high threshold. Therefore, we will see that for a long time,
00:08:35the struggle between the president and the prime minister actually reflects
00:08:39some deep-seated problems of the political system. Similarly,
00:08:43it is also causing further political stalemate and political
00:08:47polarization within Poland. Everyone can imagine,
00:08:51when the president and prime minister come from two different camps, and then both
00:08:54sides are constantly struggling with each other, then similarly, neither
00:08:58side has three-fifths of the seats in parliament, which inevitably means
00:09:02that everyone thinks they have a chance to make a move and check each other. This will make
00:09:06this political struggle gradually intensify. In addition, regarding the Constitutional
00:09:09Court, from the current prime minister's move,
00:09:23it can be seen that he naturally tries to gain more leadership and dominance by competing for personnel power. Of course, this kind of action to gain the initiative has encountered certain obstacles, which is the fundamental reason why the current conflict is constantly intensifying
00:09:26and seems unsolvable. You just mentioned that the two
00:09:30warring factions do not have an absolute majority in parliament. So for
00:09:34the current political turmoil and political chaos, we can take a look
00:09:38at how Polish media comment on it. Polish media and the Republic.
00:10:55whether the president recognizes it or not, and then rejects it. So the
00:10:59conflict is actually ultimately about who, the prime minister and the president,
00:11:03will make concessions. From the current situation, Tusk's attitude
00:11:07is very firm, because of the pressure from the EU, right?
00:12:25From the current situation, the time has not been fully determined, but from the current situation, it is
00:12:29likely to be in October next year. That is to say, from the
00:12:32length of time, even if it is in October, which is less than a year,
00:12:36but now we will see that the judicial dispute has
00:12:40triggered widespread controversy in Poland. Many people
00:12:43believe that this dispute reflects deep-seated contradictions,
00:12:47but from the reality it presents, it is indeed a
00:12:51chaotic situation. For example, many Polish people believe that this is
00:14:39However, there are also different voices within the EU. The co-chairman of the European Conservatives and Reformists Group in the European Parliament, Ryszard Legutko, criticized Tusk's
00:14:42government's actions for infringing on judicial independence. He called on
00:14:46EU institutions not to apply double standards due to political
00:14:50positions. Polish Prime Minister Donald
00:14:53Tusk suddenly spoke.
00:15:05He also used a large number of Russian trolls on the internet. However, Russia Today reported that
00:15:09Tusk did not provide further evidence or
00:15:13detailed explanations. Tusk's remarks immediately drew a double counterattack
00:15:17from the presidential camp and Russia. The head of Duda's office,
00:15:21Paweł Szrot, said Tusk's remarks were almost unfounded.
00:15:29Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of the Russian Federation Security Council, also joined the debate. Medvedev
00:15:33called the events in Poland a constitutional coup and commented.
00:16:37Obviously, the EU's position is now leaning towards Polish Prime
00:16:41Minister Tusk. Xiaohui, in your opinion, does this not feel
00:16:44a bit like taking sides? Why do you think Brussels
00:16:48was so eager to intervene in Polish affairs?
00:16:52Indeed, all parties are observing the judicial dispute occurring within
00:16:56Poland. There are indeed different voices within Europe. Even if
00:16:59some voices have emerged from Poland, we will also see that the voices within
00:17:03the EU are actually complex. But you mentioned taking sides, and indeed. From
00:17:07the perspective of taking sides, when this dispute occurred, all
00:17:11parties were somewhat cautious in their statements. But now, the voice coming
00:17:15from the EU is clearly taking sides.
00:17:18In fact, it should be said that the EU's support for Tusk and the forces led by
00:17:22Tusk has a long history. Since 2015, regarding the judicial
00:17:26reform within Poland, the EU has had its own clear views, hoping to achieve
00:17:30its ultimate goals according to its own standards. But currently, we will see
00:17:34that the judicial crisis has indeed spread into a
00:17:37diplomatic event, or rather, it has triggered a series of
00:17:41developments in the diplomatic field. So everyone first pays attention to the fact that two foreign
00:17:45ambassadors have already resigned, but more importantly, it involves the current
00:17:49statement of the EU, which is actually not only aimed at the current events
00:17:53happening in Poland, but also at this delicate moment in time.
00:17:57In fact, the news segment just now also mentioned whether it is pro-EU
00:18:01or accused of being pro-Russia, this seems to have become a
00:18:04so-called politically correct issue. So when the EU chooses.
00:18:42So whether it's pro-EU or pro-Russia, whether it's left-leaning or right-leaning,
00:18:46from our discussion just now, we can clearly feel that Poland's
00:18:50left-right struggle, its core issue is how
00:18:54to handle the relationship between Poland and the EU.
00:18:57It also presents
00:19:02many criticisms of the EU. From this situation,
00:19:06it seems.
00:21:07A large number of Russian internet trolls were used on the internet.
00:21:18From the US election, to Spanish immigration, to Poland's constitutional
00:21:22coup, all of this was done by Russians.
00:21:25Linking domestic affairs
00:21:28to Russia. What do you think the current social
00:21:32turmoil in Poland will have on the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, which has lasted for
00:21:36five years? First of all, I strongly
00:21:40agree with what Xiao Guo just said, which is that on the issue of pro-Russia and pro-EU,
00:21:44it has become a politically correct issue in Poland.
00:21:47It involves. That affects
00:22:50next year's general election. It may increase. Even the
00:23:03joint efforts of Europe in terms of defense integration, then
00:23:07it may also shrink. So in this way, it will actually indirectly
00:23:10affect the direction of the Ukrainian conflict. Just now, we talked about
00:23:14Poland. We talked about the relationship between Poland and the EU. But I
00:23:18think there is one party that is
00:24:20the attitude, or rather, the fact that the United States did not express its position and intervene at the first time, does
00:24:24not mean that the United States will not choose sides later
00:24:27to further express its relevant demands. In fact, what we currently
00:24:31see is that the United States is considering several factors. At present,
00:24:35maintaining a certain degree of restraint, I am afraid, is that in terms of priority
00:24:39sequencing, the United States still has its priorities.
00:24:43Facing the midterm elections, this is, of course, the most important political agenda in the United States this year.
00:24:47At such a point in time, I am afraid there is no room for it.
00:25:20At the same time, regarding the attitude of Europe, the signal that the United States is now sending
00:25:24is that it hopes that on the one hand, Europe can bear more responsibility, and on the other
00:25:27hand, in terms of cognition, Europe should see that when constantly emphasizing
00:25:31the Russian threat, whether it will magnify this threat,
00:25:35and instead lead to an escalation of the conflict. This is a question that the US establishment
00:25:39is also raising. Alright, thank you both for your wonderful analysis. Our program will continue shortly.
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00:26:24It can be seen that the superficial
00:26:34reason for the Polish constitutional dispute is the conflict between the president and vice-president,
00:26:38and the deeper reflection is the structural dilemma facing the EU. When EU
00:26:42integration is at a standstill, is it European integration or national interests?
00:26:46The more external pressure calls for European integration, the more internal
00:26:49contradictions make European integration more difficult.
00:26:53When the divisible cake becomes smaller and smaller, where is Europe
00:26:57going? It has become a common problem for this continent. Thank you all for
00:27:01watching today's Global Vision.