The 2026 races
Every Senate seat, every governorship and every House district with a public poll — one page per contest, with the polls and the money each read from a named public feed. Election Day was November 3, 2026. The polls shown are the final pre-election field.
What is on this page, and what is not
No results, no odds. There is no free, documented feed of vote counts or race calls, so this page does not pretend to one, and it does not use prediction-market prices. It carries the two things that have public feeds: the polls (New York Times poll data via PollResults.org, CC BY 4.0) and the money (Federal Election Commission candidate totals and independent-expenditure totals; governors are state-regulated and have no federal money feed).
The implied rating on each race is derived from the poll leader's margin over the runner-up — 15 points or more is Safe, 8 Likely, 4 Lean, under 4 a Toss-up. It is not a handicapper's call. An unpolled seat shows the top fundraiser from each major party, labelled as such. The party shown as held is the party holding the seat going into the election. Figures as of 2026-11-04 00:20 UTC.
The balance
Senate seats up, by holderR 22 · D 1329 of 35 polled; poll leader would flip 7
Governorships up, by holderR 18 · D 1834 of 36 polled; poll leader would flip 4
House districts polled110poll leader would flip 25
Closest races
Sorted by the poll leader's margin over the runner-up, smallest first. Select any heading to re-sort; type to filter.
| Race | Held | Poll leader (lead) | D − R | Pollsters | Raised | Implied rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louisiana Senate Senate | R open | Julia Letlow R 0.0 | 0.0 tie | 2 (2 partisan) | $12.1M Letlow R | Toss-up |
| Florida 7th District House | — | Ryan Elijah R 0.0 | 0.0 tie | 1 (1 partisan) | $3.2M Dalton D | Toss-up |
| Florida 9th District House | D | Dan Green R 0.0 | 0.0 tie | 1 (1 partisan) | $6.3M Soto D | Toss-up flip |
| Ohio 9th District House | D | Derek Merrin R 0.0 | 0.0 tie | 1 (1 partisan) | $8.1M Kaptur D | Toss-up flip |
| Texas 23rd District House | — | Brandon Herrera R 0.0 | 0.0 tie | 1 (1 partisan) | $4.2M Herrera R | Toss-up |
| Washington 3rd District House | D | John Braun R 0.0 | 0.0 tie | 2 (1 partisan) | $12.8M Perez D | Toss-up flip |
| Iowa Senate Senate | R open | Josh Turek D +0.1 | +0.1 D | 8 (1 partisan) | $24.4M Turek D | Toss-up flip |
| Kansas Governor Governor | D open | Cindy Holscher D +0.1 | +0.1 D | 8 (1 partisan) | — | Toss-up |
| Georgia Governor Governor | R open | Rick Jackson R +0.2 | -0.2 R | 8 | — | Toss-up |
| New York 21st District House | — | Anthony Constantino R +0.3 | -0.3 R | 3 (2 partisan) | $24.7M Constantino R | Toss-up |
| New York 17th District House | R | Mike Lawler R +0.3 | -0.3 R | 2 (1 partisan) | $21.0M Conley D | Toss-up |
| Florida 25th District House | D | Scott Singer R +0.5 | -0.5 R | 2 (2 partisan) | $9.0M Moskowitz D | Toss-up flip |
Senate 35 seats all Senate races →
| Race | Held | Poll leader (lead) | D − R | Pollsters | Raised | Implied rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louisiana Senate | R open | Julia Letlow R 0.0 | 0.0 tie | 2 (2 partisan) | $12.1M Letlow R | Toss-up |
| Iowa Senate | R open | Josh Turek D +0.1 | +0.1 D | 8 (1 partisan) | $24.4M Turek D | Toss-up flip |
| Nebraska Senate | R | Pete Ricketts R +0.7 | — | 8 (4 partisan) | $25.6M Ricketts R | Toss-up |
| South Carolina Senate | R open | Darline Graham R +0.7 | -0.7 R | 8 (3 partisan) | $26.2M Andrews D | Toss-up |
| Ohio Senate (special) special | R | Sherrod Brown D +2.4 | +2.4 D | 8 (1 partisan) | $88.4M Brown D | Toss-up flip |
| Texas Senate | R open | James Talarico D +2.8 | +2.8 D | 8 (1 partisan) | $168.7M Talarico D | Toss-up flip |
| Mississippi Senate | R | Cindy Hyde-Smith R +3.0 | -3.0 R | 1 (1 partisan) | $10.8M Hyde-Smith R | Toss-up |
| Kansas Senate | R | Adam Hamilton D +4.3 | +4.3 D | 8 | $26.7M Hamilton D | Lean flip |
| Maine Senate | R | Troy Jackson D +5.0 | +5.0 D | 8 | $52.1M Jackson D | Lean flip |
| Michigan Senate | D open | Abdul El-Sayed D +5.4 | +5.4 D | 8 (2 partisan) | $76.8M El-Sayed D | Lean |
| Minnesota Senate | D open | Peggy Flanagan D +5.8 | +5.8 D | 8 (2 partisan) | $24.1M Tafoya R | Lean |
| Florida Senate (special) special | R | Ashley Moody R +6.1 | -6.1 R | 8 | $25.8M Moody R | Lean |
| New Hampshire Senate | D open | Chris Pappas D +7.3 | +7.3 D | 8 (2 partisan) | $29.4M Pappas D | Lean |
| Georgia Senate | D | Jon Ossoff D +9.2 | +9.2 D | 8 (1 partisan) | $147.3M Ossoff D | Likely |
| Montana Senate | R open | Kurt Alme R +10.6 | -23.9 R | 5 (2 partisan) | $8.4M Bodnar I | Likely |
| South Dakota Senate | R | Mike Rounds R +11.7 | — | 6 (3 partisan) | $7.0M Rounds R | Likely |
| North Carolina Senate | R open | Roy Cooper D +11.9 | +11.9 D | 8 | $63.3M Cooper D | Likely flip |
| Illinois Senate | D open | Juliana Stratton D +12.0 | +12.0 D | 3 | $12.1M Stratton D | Likely |
| Arkansas Senate | R | Tom Cotton R +12.5 | -12.5 R | 2 (1 partisan) | $18.6M Cotton R | Likely |
| Alaska Senate | R open | Mary Peltola D +14.9 | +14.9 D | 7 (1 partisan) | $36.9M Peltola D | Likely flip |
| Alabama Senate | R open | Barry Moore R +16.3 | -16.3 R | 4 (1 partisan) | $4.8M Moore R | Safe |
| Idaho Senate | R | James Risch R +16.5 | — | 2 (2 partisan) | $6.9M Risch R | Safe |
| New Mexico Senate | D | Ben Ray Luján D +17.6 | +17.6 D | 3 | $9.2M Luján D | Safe |
| Colorado Senate | D | John Hickenlooper D +18.0 | +18.0 D | 3 (1 partisan) | $11.8M Hickenlooper D | Safe |
| Kentucky Senate | R open | — | — | 0 | $14.5M Barr R | No polls |
| Massachusetts Senate | D | Ed Markey D +26.2 | +26.2 D | 5 | $10.9M Markey D | Safe |
| Oklahoma Senate | R open | — | — | 0 | $11.3M Hern R | No polls |
| Rhode Island Senate | D | Jack Reed D +25.6 | +25.6 D | 3 | $5.1M Reed D | Safe |
| Tennessee Senate | R | Bill Hagerty R +20.0 | -20.0 R | 1 | $17.3M Hagerty R | Safe |
| Delaware Senate | D | unpolled | — | 0 | $7.9M Coons D | No polls |
| New Jersey Senate | D | unpolled | — | 0 | $36.1M Booker D | No polls |
| Oregon Senate | D | unpolled | — | 0 | $9.0M Merkley D | No polls |
| Virginia Senate | D | unpolled | — | 0 | $28.6M Warner D | No polls |
| West Virginia Senate | R | unpolled | — | 0 | $7.8M Capito R | No polls |
| Wyoming Senate | R open | unpolled | — | 0 | $2.9M Hageman R | No polls |
Governors 36 states all governor races →
| Race | Held | Poll leader (lead) | D − R | Pollsters | Raised | Implied rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas Governor | D open | Cindy Holscher D +0.1 | +0.1 D | 8 (1 partisan) | — | Toss-up |
| Georgia Governor | R open | Rick Jackson R +0.2 | -0.2 R | 8 | — | Toss-up |
| Nevada Governor | R open | Aaron Ford D +1.0 | +1.0 D | 3 (2 partisan) | — | Toss-up flip |
| Vermont Governor | R open | Phil Scott R +1.4 | -1.4 R | 3 | — | Toss-up |
| Texas Governor | R open | Greg Abbott R +1.5 | -1.5 R | 8 | — | Toss-up |
| Oregon Governor | D open | Tina Kotek D +3.0 | +3.0 D | 2 (1 partisan) | — | Toss-up |
| Oklahoma Governor | R open | Mike Mazzei R +4.0 | -4.0 R | 1 (1 partisan) | — | Lean |
| Florida Governor | R open | Byron Donalds R +4.1 | -4.1 R | 8 | — | Lean |
| Nebraska Governor | R open | Jim Pillen R +4.2 | -4.2 R | 8 (4 partisan) | — | Lean |
| Ohio Governor | R open | Amy Acton D +4.6 | +4.6 D | 8 | — | Lean flip |
| Wisconsin Governor | D open | David Crowley D +4.8 | +4.8 D | 5 (3 partisan) | — | Lean |
| New Mexico Governor | D open | Deb Haaland D +6.7 | +6.7 D | 3 | — | Lean |
| New Hampshire Governor | R open | Kelly Ayotte R +7.1 | -7.1 R | 7 (1 partisan) | — | Lean |
| Iowa Governor | R open | Rob Sand D +7.2 | +7.2 D | 8 (1 partisan) | — | Lean flip |
| Michigan Governor | D open | Jocelyn Benson D +8.7 | +8.7 D | 8 (1 partisan) | — | Likely |
| Rhode Island Governor | D open | Helena Foulkes D +9.2 | +32.8 D | 4 (1 partisan) | — | Likely |
| Alabama Governor | R open | Tommy Tuberville R +9.8 | -9.8 R | 4 (1 partisan) | — | Likely |
| Arizona Governor | D open | Katie Hobbs D +10.0 | +10.0 D | 7 (3 partisan) | — | Likely |
| South Carolina Governor | R open | Alan Wilson R +10.5 | -10.5 R | 5 (2 partisan) | — | Likely |
| Minnesota Governor | D open | Amy Klobuchar D +11.0 | +11.0 D | 8 (1 partisan) | — | Likely |
| Maine Governor | D open | Hannah Pingree D +11.1 | +11.1 D | 8 | — | Likely |
| Alaska Governor | R open | Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins D +11.7 | +11.7 D | 4 | — | Likely flip |
| New York Governor | D open | Kathy Hochul D +13.1 | +13.1 D | 8 (2 partisan) | — | Likely |
| Tennessee Governor | R open | Marsha Blackburn R +15.3 | -15.3 R | 2 | — | Safe |
| South Dakota Governor | R open | Larry Rhoden R +16.2 | -16.2 R | 3 (1 partisan) | — | Safe |
| Colorado Governor | D open | Phil Weiser D +16.7 | +16.7 D | 3 (1 partisan) | — | Safe |
| Arkansas Governor | R open | Sarah Huckabee Sanders R +19.0 | -19.0 R | 1 | — | Safe |
| Idaho Governor | R open | Brad Little R +19.0 | -19.0 R | 1 (1 partisan) | — | Safe |
| Connecticut Governor | D open | Ned Lamont D +19.4 | +19.4 D | 5 | — | Safe |
| Illinois Governor | D open | JB Pritzker D +19.7 | +19.7 D | 3 | — | Safe |
| California Governor | D open | Xavier Becerra D +22.5 | +22.5 D | 8 | — | Safe |
| Maryland Governor | D open | Wes Moore D +27.0 | +27.0 D | 1 | — | Safe |
| Massachusetts Governor | D open | Maura Healey D +23.3 | +23.3 D | 5 | — | Safe |
| Pennsylvania Governor | D open | Josh Shapiro D +23.3 | +23.3 D | 8 (1 partisan) | — | Safe |
| Hawaii Governor | D | — | — | 0 | — | No polls |
| Wyoming Governor | R | — | — | 0 | — | No polls |
House battlegrounds 110 districts polled every polled district →
The twenty-five closest of the districts with a public general-election poll. That is a data rule, not a handicapper's list: an unpolled district is not on the board, and absence here is not a judgement that it is safe.
| Race | Held | Poll leader (lead) | D − R | Pollsters | Raised | Implied rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida 7th District | — | Ryan Elijah R 0.0 | 0.0 tie | 1 (1 partisan) | $3.2M Dalton D | Toss-up |
| Florida 9th District | D | Dan Green R 0.0 | 0.0 tie | 1 (1 partisan) | $6.3M Soto D | Toss-up flip |
| Ohio 9th District | D | Derek Merrin R 0.0 | 0.0 tie | 1 (1 partisan) | $8.1M Kaptur D | Toss-up flip |
| Texas 23rd District | — | Brandon Herrera R 0.0 | 0.0 tie | 1 (1 partisan) | $4.2M Herrera R | Toss-up |
| Washington 3rd District | D | John Braun R 0.0 | 0.0 tie | 2 (1 partisan) | $12.8M Perez D | Toss-up flip |
| New York 21st District | — | Anthony Constantino R +0.3 | -0.3 R | 3 (2 partisan) | $24.7M Constantino R | Toss-up |
| New York 17th District | R | Mike Lawler R +0.3 | -0.3 R | 2 (1 partisan) | $21.0M Conley D | Toss-up |
| Florida 25th District | D | Scott Singer R +0.5 | -0.5 R | 2 (2 partisan) | $9.0M Moskowitz D | Toss-up flip |
| Maine 2nd District | — | Paul LePage R +0.5 | -0.5 R | 2 (1 partisan) | $6.3M LePage R | Toss-up |
| Wisconsin 1st District | R | Mitchell Berman D +0.5 | +0.5 D | 2 (2 partisan) | $8.4M Steil R | Toss-up flip |
| Missouri 2nd District | R | Fred Wellman D +0.9 | +0.9 D | 2 (1 partisan) | $6.4M Wagner R | Toss-up flip |
| Colorado 3rd District | R | Dwayne Romero D +1.0 | +1.0 D | 1 (1 partisan) | $5.9M Hurd R | Toss-up flip |
| Florida 13th District | R | Leela Gray D +1.0 | +1.0 D | 1 (1 partisan) | $7.3M Luna R | Toss-up flip |
| Minnesota 1st District | R | Jake Johnson D +1.0 | +1.0 D | 3 (2 partisan) | $6.3M Johnson D | Toss-up flip |
| Nebraska 1st District | R | Mike Flood R +1.0 | -1.0 R | 1 (1 partisan) | $3.9M Flood R | Toss-up |
| Texas 35th District | — | Johnny Garcia D +1.0 | +1.0 D | 3 (1 partisan) | $4.2M Garcia D | Toss-up |
| Pennsylvania 1st District | R | Bob Harvie D +1.2 | +1.2 D | 2 (1 partisan) | $11.2M Fitzpatrick R | Toss-up flip |
| Indiana 5th District | R | Victoria Spartz R +1.9 | -1.9 R | 2 (1 partisan) | $3.6M Spartz R | Toss-up |
| Pennsylvania 10th District | R | Janelle Stelson D +1.9 | +1.9 D | 3 | $16.0M Stelson D | Toss-up flip |
| Alabama 2nd District | D | Rhett Marques R +2.0 | -2.0 R | 1 | $4.4M Figures D | Toss-up flip |
| Arizona 2nd District | R | Jonathan Nez D +2.0 | +2.0 D | 1 | $17.7M Crane R | Toss-up flip |
| Georgia 7th District | R | Tony Kozycki D +2.0 | +2.0 D | 1 (1 partisan) | $3.2M McCormick R | Toss-up flip |
| Nevada 2nd District | — | David Flippo R +2.0 | -2.0 R | 1 (1 partisan) | $4.0M Flippo R | Toss-up |
| South Carolina 1st District | — | Jenny Costa Honeycutt R +2.0 | -2.0 R | 2 (1 partisan) | $6.2M Lacore D | Toss-up |
| Virginia 1st District | R | Shannon Taylor D +2.0 | +2.0 D | 3 (2 partisan) | $10.0M Wittman R | Toss-up flip |
2028 primaries, early the 2028 field →
Democratic primary
- Kamala Harris26.1%
- Gavin Newsom14.8%
- Pete Buttigieg10.2%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez9.1%
- Jon Ossoff6.4%
- Mark Kelly6.2%
- Josh Shapiro4.8%
- Cory Booker3.3%
Unweighted mean of 10 pollsters since Sep 5; names in at least half the polls.
Republican primary
- JD Vance38.9%
- Marco Rubio17.9%
- Donald Trump Jr.14.4%
- Ron DeSantis8.4%
- Robert F. Kennedy4.4%
- Nikki Haley3.5%
- Ted Cruz3.1%
- Tucker Carlson1.8%
Unweighted mean of 9 pollsters since Sep 5; names in at least half the polls.
Political ad spend by platform
Read from each platform's own transparency publication, with no API or application: Meta's Ad Library Report (read daily from the signed-in report page; spend by Facebook and Instagram page), Google's Ads Transparency Center bundle (nightly) and Snap's political-ads library (daily).
Meta, last 7 days$88.1MOct 25, 2026 - Oct 31, 2026, summed across states; ads about social issues, elections or politicssource
FEC outside spending, 7d$298.7Mindependent expenditures, all media
Top Meta pages, Oct 25, 2026 - Oct 31, 2026
| Page | Paid for by | Spend, 7d | Ads |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi - Trade the Headlines | KALSHI INC. | $6.1M | 419 |
| Common Sense Voters Coalition | MAGA INC | $5.8M | 3,350 |
| Lower Costs Now | LOWER COSTS NOW | $2.4M | 8,088 |
| Working America | Working America | $2.2M | 2,983 |
| WinSenate | WINSENATE | $1.6M | 235 |
| No on 40: Protect Funding for Schools, Healthcare & Public Safety | No on Prop 40 - Doctors, Teachers, Small Businesses, Working Families and Public Safety Against the Reckless Wealth Tax | $1.5M | 221 |
| Yes on Proposition 42 | Yes on 42 – Protect Retirement & Life Savings, a coalition of retirees, blue-collar workers, seniors, veterans, small bu | $1.4M | 388 |
| America PAC | America PAC | $1.2M | 471 |
| Abdul El-Sayed | Abdul for U.S. Senate | $1.1M | 776 |
| Defend The Vote | DEFEND THE VOTE ACTION FUND | $961k | 243 |
| Vivek Ramaswamy | Vivek Ramaswamy and Rob McColley for Ohio | $837k | 410 |
| Make America Great Again Inc. | MAGA INC | $787k | 23 |
Top Google advertisers, last four weeks
| Advertiser | Spend, 4w | Spend, 8w | Top states (lifetime) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi Inc | $18.2M | $47.4M | CA, TX, FL, GA |
| HMP | $15.0M | $20.5M | CA, PA, AZ, OH |
| WINSENATE | $14.9M | $25.9M | OH, MI, PA, WI |
| MAGA INC. | $14.5M | $14.5M | TX, MI, OH, FL |
| SLF PAC | $14.0M | $24.7M | OH, MI, IA, NC |
| CLF | $8.2M | $14.8M | MI, PA, IA, OH |
| LCV Victory Fund | $6.2M | $8.4M | MI, OH, PA, FL |
| NO GOING BACK PAC INC. | $6.1M | $13.3M | MI, OH, TX, FL |
| AMERICA PAC | $5.9M | $7.7M | TX, OH, WI, MI |
| NO ON PROP 40 - DOCTORS, TEACHERS, SMALL BUSINESSES, WORKING FAMILIES AND PUBLIC SAFETY AGAINST THE RECKLESS WEALTH TAX EXPERIMENT | $5.9M | $11.9M | CA, TX, NV, AZ |
| JON OSSOFF FOR SENATE | $5.7M | $11.0M | GA, CA, , NY |
| YES ON 42 - PROTECT RETIREMENT & LIFE SAVINGS, A COALITION OF RETIREES, BLUE-COLLAR WORKERS, SENIORS, VETERANS, SMALL BUSINESSESS & TAXPAYERS | $5.7M | $9.0M | CA, TX, AZ, NV |
Top Snap payers, 2026
| Paying advertiser | Spend | Ads | States targeted |
|---|---|---|---|
| No on Prop 40 via GMMB, Inc | $2.4M | 122 | CA |
| WinSenate via Trilogy Interactive | $2.1M | 126 | OH, IA, ME, KS, MI |
| Blue Square Alliance Against Hat via standup2jewhate | $1.2M | 220 | |
| Yes on Prop 42 via GMMB, Inc | $964k | 184 | CA |
| Kalshi via Kalshi Inc | $906k | 300 | AL, AK, AZ, AR, CA |
| Lower Costs Now via GMMB, Inc | $821k | 34 | IA, KS, AK |
| Jon Ossoff for Senate via Aisle 518 Strategies LLC | $522k | 54 | GA |
| JB for Governor via Gambit Strategies | $425k | 114 | IL |
| Texas Forever via Gambit Strategies | $417k | 51 | TX |
| Senate Leadership Fund via Cavalry LLC | $357k | 269 | OH, ME, NE, IA, KS |
| One Nation via Alamo Intelligence LLC | $316k | 131 | GA, ME, AK, OH |
| House Majority Forward via Assemble the Agency | $296k | 142 |
Outside money, last seven days
Independent expenditures reported to the FEC in the trailing week: $298.7M in all. These are PACs and party committees spending for or against candidates, not the campaigns themselves. Computed by Corvus Intel from the FEC bulk file.
| Spender | Spend, 7d | Named candidates (sample) |
|---|---|---|
| SLF PAC | $44.2M | ANDREWS, ANNIE; ARENHOLZ, ASHLEY; BROWN, SHERROD |
| CLF | $40.2M | BERMAN, MITCHELL; BROOKS, BOB; BUCKHOUT, LAURIE |
| NO GOING BACK PAC INC. | $38.6M | ALVARADO, RALPH A; ANDREWS, ANNIE; BAILEY, TOM |
| SAFETY & AFFORDABILITY PAC INC. | $22.8M | BAILEY, TOM; BROOKS, BOB; BUCKHOUT, LAURIE |
| HMP | $18.7M | Alvarado, Ralph; Anna Paulina, Luna; Askar, Casey |
| America PAC | $10.7M | ARENHOLZ, ASHLEY; BARRETT, THOMAS; BOUCHARD, MICHAEL |
| CFFE PAC | $10.3M | Arenholz, Ashley; Bohannan, Christina; Brown, Sherrod |
| WinSenate | $9.0M | Andrews, Annie; Arenholz, Ashley Hinson; Brown, Sherrod |
| Government That Works PAC | $8.0M | Andrews, Annie; Colom, Scott; Graham, Darline |
| Progressive Turnout Project | $7.6M | AGER, JAMIE; ANDREWS, ANNIE; BENNETT, REBECCA |
Polls: PollResults.org (New York Times poll data), CC BY 4.0 (1,579 poll questions in the window). Money: FEC candidate totals and Schedule E independent-expenditure totals for the 2026 cycle. Platform ad spend: Meta Ad Library Report (U.S., 7-day preset, read from the report page), Google Ads Transparency Center CSV bundle and Snap political ads library, via Corvus Intel. Snapshot 2026-11-04 00:20 UTC, refreshed every six hours. No model wrote these figures, and no prediction-market price is used. Read how we work, or see the Politics desk for the analysis built on top of them. JSON.