Kansas Senate
Candidates
| Candidate | Party | Poll avg | Latest poll | Raised | Cash | Outside for / against |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Hamilton | D | 50% (8) | 51.9% | $19.2M | $2.9M | $6k / — |
| Roger Marshall incumbent | R | 45.7% (8) | 44.9% | $7.5M | $810k | $558k / $6.9M |
Unweighted mean of the latest general-election poll from each of 8 pollsters since 2026-09-20.
Tracking the poll average daily since November 3, 2026; a chart appears after three days.
Polls 24 in the window
| Field dates | Pollster | Sample | Result | D − R |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1 from Oct 28 | AtlasIntel | 2,038 LV | Adam Hamilton D 51.9 · Roger Marshall R 44.9 | +7.0 |
| Nov 1 from Oct 27 | Survey 160 | 1,267 LV | Adam Hamilton D 50 · Roger Marshall R 44 | +6.0 |
| Nov 1 from Oct 27 | Survey 160 | 1,339 RV | Adam Hamilton D 50 · Roger Marshall R 43 | +7.0 |
| Nov 1 from Oct 27 | The New York Times/Siena University | 736 LV | Adam Hamilton D 49 · Roger Marshall R 43.9 · David Graham L 4.4 | +5.1 |
| Oct 29 from Oct 26 | YouGov | 2,086 LV | Adam Hamilton D 50 · Roger Marshall R 49 | +1.0 |
| Oct 28 from Oct 26 | Emerson College | 800 LV | Adam Hamilton D 49.5 · Roger Marshall R 47.1 · David Graham L 3.4 | +2.4 |
| Oct 26 from Oct 22 | The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government | 801 LV | Adam Hamilton D 54 · Roger Marshall R 44 | +10.0 |
| Oct 26 from Oct 22 | The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government | 801 LV | Adam Hamilton D 52 · Roger Marshall R 43 · David Graham L 4 | +9.0 |
| Oct 26 from Oct 20 | CNN/SSRS | 838 LV | Adam Hamilton D 49 · Roger Marshall R 45 · Neither 4 | +4.0 |
| Oct 14 from Oct 13 | InsiderAdvantage | 1,200 LV | Roger Marshall R 47.7 · Adam Hamilton D 46.6 · David Graham L 3.4 | -1.1 |
| Oct 10 from Oct 9 | InsiderAdvantage | 1,200 LV | Adam Hamilton D 47.5 · Roger Marshall R 46.7 · David Graham L 3.4 | +0.8 |
| Oct 4 from Sep 30 | GBAO D-sponsored | 600 LV | Adam Hamilton D 46 · Roger Marshall R 41 · David Graham L 7 | +5.0 |
| Oct 4 from Sep 30 | GBAO D-sponsored | 600 LV | Adam Hamilton D 49 · Roger Marshall R 44 | +5.0 |
| Oct 4 from Sep 24 | YouGov | 2,253 LV | Adam Hamilton D 48 · Roger Marshall R 45 | +3.0 |
| Oct 1 from Sep 29 | Trafalgar Group R-sponsored | 1,095 LV | Adam Hamilton D 44.4 · Roger Marshall R 43.5 · David Graham L 2 | +0.9 |
Money
FEC candidate committee totals for the 2026 cycle, through October 14, 2026. Outside for / against is Schedule E independent spending by other committees to support or oppose the candidate. Each figure links to the candidate's FEC page.
Platform ad spend
Meta's Ad Library Report, Google's Ads Transparency Center and Snap's political-ads library. An advertiser is tied to a candidate only when its name carries the candidate's surname together with this state or the candidate's full name; outside groups that do not name a candidate appear in the state and district totals, not here.
| Platform | Advertiser | Tied to | Spend | Window |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meta | Adam Hamilton for Kansas paid for by Hamilton for Kansas | Adam Hamilton D | $144k | Oct 25, 2026 - Oct 31, 2026 |
| Hamilton for Kansas | Adam Hamilton D | $1.3M | last 4 weeks | |
| Hamilton for Kansas | Adam Hamilton D | $499k | last 4 weeks | |
| TEAM MARSHALL | Roger Marshall R | $396k | last 4 weeks | |
| KANSANS FOR MARSHALL | Roger Marshall R | $265k | last 4 weeks |
Meta in Kansas: $1.5M Oct 25, 2026 - Oct 31, 2026 · Google in Kansas: $28.6M lifetime · Snap targeted at Kansas: $598k in 2026.
All senate races → · The races hub → · JSON
Polls: PollResults.org (New York Times poll data), CC BY 4.0 (1,579 poll questions in the window). Money: FEC candidate totals and Schedule E independent-expenditure totals for the 2026 cycle. Platform ad spend: Meta Ad Library Report (U.S., 7-day preset, read from the report page), Google Ads Transparency Center CSV bundle and Snap political ads library, via Corvus Intel. Snapshot 2026-11-04 00:20 UTC, refreshed every six hours. No model wrote these figures, and no prediction-market price is used. Read how we work, or see the Politics desk for the analysis built on top of them. JSON.