Senate

Kansas Senate

Seat held by Republicans · incumbent Roger Marshall R running · Election Day was November 3, 2026. The polls shown are the final pre-election field.

PollsAdam Hamilton D +4.350% in the average of 8 pollsters since Sep 20
Money$26.7Mraised by listed candidates; Adam Hamilton leads with $19.2M
Outside spending$7.5Mindependent expenditures for and against the listed candidates
Implied ratingLeanfrom the poll leader's margin over the runner-up

Candidates

CandidatePartyPoll avgLatest pollRaisedCashOutside for / against
Adam HamiltonD50% (8)51.9%$19.2M$2.9M$6k / —
Roger Marshall incumbentR45.7% (8)44.9%$7.5M$810k$558k / $6.9M

Unweighted mean of the latest general-election poll from each of 8 pollsters since 2026-09-20.

Tracking the poll average daily since November 3, 2026; a chart appears after three days.

Polls 24 in the window

Field datesPollsterSampleResultD − R
Nov 1 from Oct 28AtlasIntel2,038 LVAdam Hamilton D 51.9 · Roger Marshall R 44.9+7.0
Nov 1 from Oct 27Survey 1601,267 LVAdam Hamilton D 50 · Roger Marshall R 44+6.0
Nov 1 from Oct 27Survey 1601,339 RVAdam Hamilton D 50 · Roger Marshall R 43+7.0
Nov 1 from Oct 27The New York Times/Siena University736 LVAdam Hamilton D 49 · Roger Marshall R 43.9 · David Graham L 4.4+5.1
Oct 29 from Oct 26YouGov2,086 LVAdam Hamilton D 50 · Roger Marshall R 49+1.0
Oct 28 from Oct 26Emerson College800 LVAdam Hamilton D 49.5 · Roger Marshall R 47.1 · David Graham L 3.4+2.4
Oct 26 from Oct 22The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government801 LVAdam Hamilton D 54 · Roger Marshall R 44+10.0
Oct 26 from Oct 22The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government801 LVAdam Hamilton D 52 · Roger Marshall R 43 · David Graham L 4+9.0
Oct 26 from Oct 20CNN/SSRS838 LVAdam Hamilton D 49 · Roger Marshall R 45 · Neither 4+4.0
Oct 14 from Oct 13InsiderAdvantage1,200 LVRoger Marshall R 47.7 · Adam Hamilton D 46.6 · David Graham L 3.4-1.1
Oct 10 from Oct 9InsiderAdvantage1,200 LVAdam Hamilton D 47.5 · Roger Marshall R 46.7 · David Graham L 3.4+0.8
Oct 4 from Sep 30GBAO D-sponsored600 LVAdam Hamilton D 46 · Roger Marshall R 41 · David Graham L 7+5.0
Oct 4 from Sep 30GBAO D-sponsored600 LVAdam Hamilton D 49 · Roger Marshall R 44+5.0
Oct 4 from Sep 24YouGov2,253 LVAdam Hamilton D 48 · Roger Marshall R 45+3.0
Oct 1 from Sep 29Trafalgar Group R-sponsored1,095 LVAdam Hamilton D 44.4 · Roger Marshall R 43.5 · David Graham L 2+0.9

Money

FEC candidate committee totals for the 2026 cycle, through October 14, 2026. Outside for / against is Schedule E independent spending by other committees to support or oppose the candidate. Each figure links to the candidate's FEC page.

Platform ad spend

Meta's Ad Library Report, Google's Ads Transparency Center and Snap's political-ads library. An advertiser is tied to a candidate only when its name carries the candidate's surname together with this state or the candidate's full name; outside groups that do not name a candidate appear in the state and district totals, not here.

PlatformAdvertiserTied toSpendWindow
MetaAdam Hamilton for Kansas paid for by Hamilton for KansasAdam Hamilton D$144kOct 25, 2026 - Oct 31, 2026
GoogleHamilton for KansasAdam Hamilton D$1.3Mlast 4 weeks
GoogleHamilton for KansasAdam Hamilton D$499klast 4 weeks
GoogleTEAM MARSHALLRoger Marshall R$396klast 4 weeks
GoogleKANSANS FOR MARSHALLRoger Marshall R$265klast 4 weeks

Meta in Kansas: $1.5M Oct 25, 2026 - Oct 31, 2026 · Google in Kansas: $28.6M lifetime · Snap targeted at Kansas: $598k in 2026.

All senate races → · The races hub → · JSON

Polls: PollResults.org (New York Times poll data), CC BY 4.0 (1,579 poll questions in the window). Money: FEC candidate totals and Schedule E independent-expenditure totals for the 2026 cycle. Platform ad spend: Meta Ad Library Report (U.S., 7-day preset, read from the report page), Google Ads Transparency Center CSV bundle and Snap political ads library, via Corvus Intel. Snapshot 2026-11-04 00:20 UTC, refreshed every six hours. No model wrote these figures, and no prediction-market price is used. Read how we work, or see the Politics desk for the analysis built on top of them. JSON.