Alaska Senate
Candidates
| Candidate | Party | Poll avg | Latest poll | Raised | Cash | Outside for / against |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mary Peltola | D | 48.5% (7) | 50.1% | $36.9M | $4.1M | $910k / $6.1M |
| Dan J. Sullivan | R | 33.6% (10) | 44.6% | — | — | — |
Unweighted mean of the latest general-election poll from each of 7 pollsters since 2026-09-20.
Tracking the poll average daily since November 3, 2026; a chart appears after three days.
Polls 29 in the window
| Field dates | Pollster | Sample | Result | D − R |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1 from Oct 28 | AtlasIntel | 522 LV | Mary Peltola D 50.1 · Dan Sullivan R 44.6 · Gerald Heikes R 2.5 | +5.5 |
| Nov 1 from Oct 31 | InsiderAdvantage | 1,200 LV | Mary Peltola D 48.3 · Dan Sullivan R 48.1 · Dan J. Sullivan R 2 | +0.2 |
| Nov 1 from Oct 31 | InsiderAdvantage | 1,200 LV | Mary Peltola D 50.1 · Dan Sullivan R 49.9 | +0.2 |
| Oct 30 from Oct 23 | The New York Times/Siena University | 610 LV | Mary Peltola D 47.6 · Dan Sullivan R 46.2 | +1.4 |
| Oct 29 from Oct 26 | Alaska Survey Research | 1,326 LV | Mary Peltola D 50.8 · Dan Sullivan R 49.2 | +1.6 |
| Oct 29 from Oct 26 | Alaska Survey Research | 1,326 LV | Mary Peltola D 47.7 · Dan Sullivan R 45.9 · Dan J. Sullivan R 3.4 | +1.8 |
| Oct 16 from Oct 8 | Data for Progress | 671 LV | Mary Peltola D 51 · Dan Sullivan R 49 | +2.0 |
| Oct 16 from Oct 8 | Data for Progress | 675 LV | Mary Peltola D 49 · Dan Sullivan R 46 · Dan J. Sullivan R 4 | +3.0 |
| Oct 16 from Oct 8 | Data for Progress | 694 LV | Mary Peltola D 47 · Dan Sullivan R 44 · Dan J. Sullivan R 4 | +3.0 |
| Oct 10 from Oct 9 | InsiderAdvantage | 1,200 LV | Mary Peltola D 48.2 · Dan Sullivan R 42.6 · Gerald Heikes R 2.2 | +5.6 |
| Oct 10 from Oct 9 | InsiderAdvantage | 1,200 LV | Mary Peltola D 50.1 · Dan Sullivan R 48 | +2.1 |
| Oct 3 from Oct 1 | Alaska Survey Research | 1,512 LV | Mary Peltola D 51 · Dan Sullivan R 49 | +2.0 |
| Oct 3 from Oct 1 | Alaska Survey Research | 1,512 LV | Mary Peltola D 47 · Dan Sullivan R 45 · Dan J. Sullivan R 5 | +2.0 |
| Oct 1 from Sep 24 | The New York Times/Siena University | 504 LV | Mary Peltola D 50.07 · Dan Sullivan R 43.07 | +7.0 |
| Sep 30 from Sep 28 | Quantus Insights | 758 LV | Dan Sullivan R 46.5 · Mary Peltola D 46.2 | -0.3 |
Money
FEC candidate committee totals for the 2026 cycle, through October 14, 2026. Outside for / against is Schedule E independent spending by other committees to support or oppose the candidate. Each figure links to the candidate's FEC page.
Platform ad spend
Meta's Ad Library Report, Google's Ads Transparency Center and Snap's political-ads library. An advertiser is tied to a candidate only when its name carries the candidate's surname together with this state or the candidate's full name; outside groups that do not name a candidate appear in the state and district totals, not here.
| Platform | Advertiser | Tied to | Spend | Window |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meta | Mary Peltola paid for by ALASKANS FOR MARY | Mary Peltola D | $234k | Oct 25, 2026 - Oct 31, 2026 |
| Meta | The Real Mary Peltola paid for by SLF PAC | Mary Peltola D | $71k | Oct 25, 2026 - Oct 31, 2026 |
| Alaskans for Dan Sullivan | Dan J. Sullivan R | $191k | last 4 weeks | |
| Snap | Alaskans for Dan Sullivan 51 ads | Dan J. Sullivan R | $21k | 2026 to date |
Meta in Alaska: $2.0M Oct 25, 2026 - Oct 31, 2026 · Google in Alaska: $29.4M lifetime · Snap targeted at Alaska: $339k in 2026.
All senate races → · The races hub → · JSON
Polls: PollResults.org (New York Times poll data), CC BY 4.0 (1,579 poll questions in the window). Money: FEC candidate totals and Schedule E independent-expenditure totals for the 2026 cycle. Platform ad spend: Meta Ad Library Report (U.S., 7-day preset, read from the report page), Google Ads Transparency Center CSV bundle and Snap political ads library, via Corvus Intel. Snapshot 2026-11-04 00:20 UTC, refreshed every six hours. No model wrote these figures, and no prediction-market price is used. Read how we work, or see the Politics desk for the analysis built on top of them. JSON.