House

Washington 3rd District

Seat held by Democrats · incumbent Marie Gluesenkamp Perez D running · Election Day was November 3, 2026. The polls shown are the final pre-election field.

PollsJohn Braun R 0.046% in the average of 2 pollsters since Sep 20, 1 partisan-sponsored
Money$12.8Mraised by listed candidates; Marie Gluesenkamp Perez leads with $9.5M
Outside spending$6.4Mindependent expenditures for and against the listed candidates
Implied ratingToss-upfrom the poll leader's margin over the runner-up

Candidates

CandidatePartyPoll avgLatest pollRaisedCashOutside for / against
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez incumbentD46% (2)45%$9.5M$235k$30k / $5.2M
John BraunR46% (2)44%$3.3M$672k$40k / $1.2M

Unweighted mean of the latest general-election poll from each of 2 pollsters since 2026-09-20.

Tracking the poll average daily since November 3, 2026; a chart appears after three days.

Polls 3 in the window

Field datesPollsterSampleResultD − R
Oct 21 from Oct 19Change Research for Northwest Progressive Institute D-sponsored551 LVMarie Gluesenkamp Perez D 45 · John Braun R 44+1.0
Sep 27 from Sep 17DHM Research for Oregon Public Broadcasting543 LVJohn Braun R 48 · Marie Gluesenkamp Perez D 47-1.0
Jul 10 from Jul 8Emerson College for Northwest Progressive Institute D-sponsored500 LVJohn Braun R 43 · Marie Gluesenkamp Perez D 42-1.0

Money

FEC candidate committee totals for the 2026 cycle, through October 14, 2026. Outside for / against is Schedule E independent spending by other committees to support or oppose the candidate. Each figure links to the candidate's FEC page.

Platform ad spend

Meta's Ad Library Report, Google's Ads Transparency Center and Snap's political-ads library. An advertiser is tied to a candidate only when its name carries the candidate's surname together with this state or the candidate's full name; outside groups that do not name a candidate appear in the state and district totals, not here.

PlatformAdvertiserTied toSpendWindow
MetaMarie Gluesenkamp Perez for Congress paid for by MARIE FOR CONGRESSMarie Gluesenkamp Perez D$233kOct 25, 2026 - Oct 31, 2026
GoogleJohn Braun for CongressJohn Braun R$99klast 4 weeks

Meta in Washington: $1.1M Oct 25, 2026 - Oct 31, 2026 · Google in this district: $7.0M lifetime under the current map · Google in Washington: $37.6M lifetime · Snap targeted at Washington: $7k in 2026.

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Polls: PollResults.org (New York Times poll data), CC BY 4.0 (1,579 poll questions in the window). Money: FEC candidate totals and Schedule E independent-expenditure totals for the 2026 cycle. Platform ad spend: Meta Ad Library Report (U.S., 7-day preset, read from the report page), Google Ads Transparency Center CSV bundle and Snap political ads library, via Corvus Intel. Snapshot 2026-11-04 00:20 UTC, refreshed every six hours. No model wrote these figures, and no prediction-market price is used. Read how we work, or see the Politics desk for the analysis built on top of them. JSON.