House

Texas 23rd District

open seat · Election Day was November 3, 2026. The polls shown are the final pre-election field.

PollsBrandon Herrera R 0.046% in the average of 1 pollster since Sep 20, 1 partisan-sponsored

Money$4.2Mraised by listed candidates; Brandon Herrera leads with $3.1M

Outside spending$2.4Mindependent expenditures for and against the listed candidates

Implied ratingToss-upfrom the poll leader's margin over the runner-up

Candidates

Candidate	Party	Poll avg	Latest poll	Raised	Cash	Outside for / against
Brandon Herrera	R	46% (1)	46%	$3.1M	$319k	$1.3M / $832k
Katy Padilla Stout	D	46% (1)	46%	$1.1M	$144k	— / $347k

Unweighted mean of the latest general-election poll from each of 1 pollster since 2026-09-20.

Tracking the poll average daily since November 3, 2026; a chart appears after three days.

Polls 1 in the window

Field dates	Pollster	Sample	Result	D − R
Oct 7 from Oct 5	Normington, Petts & Associates for House Majority PAC D-sponsored	— LV	Brandon Herrera R 46 · Katy Padilla Stout D 46	0.0

Money

FEC candidate committee totals for the 2026 cycle, through October 14, 2026. Outside for / against is Schedule E independent spending by other committees to support or oppose the candidate. Each figure links to the candidate's FEC page.

Platform ad spend

Meta's Ad Library Report, Google's Ads Transparency Center and Snap's political-ads library. An advertiser is tied to a candidate only when its name carries the candidate's surname together with this state or the candidate's full name; outside groups that do not name a candidate appear in the state and district totals, not here.

No advertiser on either platform names a candidate in this race.

Meta in Texas: $10.1M Oct 25, 2026 - Oct 31, 2026 · Google in Texas: $208.1M lifetime · Snap targeted at Texas: $595k in 2026.

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Polls: PollResults.org (New York Times poll data), CC BY 4.0 (1,579 poll questions in the window). Money: FEC candidate totals and Schedule E independent-expenditure totals for the 2026 cycle. Platform ad spend: Meta Ad Library Report (U.S., 7-day preset, read from the report page), Google Ads Transparency Center CSV bundle and Snap political ads library, via Corvus Intel. Snapshot 2026-11-04 00:20 UTC, refreshed every six hours. No model wrote these figures, and no prediction-market price is used. Read how we work, or see the Politics desk for the analysis built on top of them. JSON.