Minnesota Senate
Candidates
| Candidate | Party | Poll avg | Latest poll | Raised | Cash | Outside for / against |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peggy Flanagan | D | 49.4% (8) | 48.1% | $11.6M | $993k | $2.7M / $14.9M |
| Michele Tafoya | R | 43.6% (8) | 45.7% | $12.5M | $2.8M | $39k / $891k |
Unweighted mean of the latest general-election poll from each of 8 pollsters since 2026-09-20.
Tracking the poll average daily since November 3, 2026; a chart appears after three days.
Polls 22 in the window
| Field dates | Pollster | Sample | Result | D − R |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1 from Oct 28 | AtlasIntel | 2,133 LV | Peggy Flanagan D 48.1 · Michele Tafoya R 45.7 | +2.4 |
| Nov 1 from Oct 27 | Survey 160 | 1,365 LV | Peggy Flanagan D 52 · Michele Tafoya R 43 | +9.0 |
| Nov 1 from Oct 27 | Survey 160 | 1,410 RV | Peggy Flanagan D 52 · Michele Tafoya R 42 | +10.0 |
| Nov 1 from Oct 30 | Research Co. | 450 LV | Peggy Flanagan D 48 · Michele Tafoya R 43 | +5.0 |
| Oct 30 from Oct 29 | InsiderAdvantage | 1,200 LV | Peggy Flanagan D 49.3 · Michele Tafoya R 46.4 · Rebecca Whiting L 2.7 | +2.9 |
| Oct 28 from Oct 24 | SurveyUSA for KSTP-TV Minneapolis | 714 LV | Peggy Flanagan D 48 · Michele Tafoya R 41 · Marisa Simonetti I 2 | +7.0 |
| Oct 26 from Oct 19 | The New York Times/Siena University | 752 LV | Peggy Flanagan D 54.21 · Michele Tafoya R 40.31 | +13.9 |
| Oct 22 from Oct 21 | Victory Insights R-sponsored | 1,194 LV | Peggy Flanagan D 47.8 · Michele Tafoya R 44.4 | +3.4 |
| Oct 15 from Oct 13 | Trafalgar Group R-sponsored | 1,079 LV | Peggy Flanagan D 48.1 · Michele Tafoya R 44.6 · Rebecca Whiting L 1.1 | +3.5 |
| Oct 12 from Oct 9 | SurveyUSA for KSTP-TV Minneapolis | 718 LV | Peggy Flanagan D 45 · Michele Tafoya R 42 · Rebecca Whiting L 2 | +3.0 |
| Oct 7 from Oct 5 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. for KARE 11 | Minnesota Star Tribune | 800 LV | Peggy Flanagan D 47 · Michele Tafoya R 43 | +4.0 |
| Oct 7 from Oct 2 | Morning Consult for The Daily Agenda | 1,000 RV | Peggy Flanagan D 45 · Michele Tafoya R 41 | +4.0 |
| Oct 4 from Oct 1 | GQR for Senate Majority PAC D-sponsored | 800 LV | Peggy Flanagan D 53 · Michele Tafoya R 44 | +9.0 |
| Oct 4 from Oct 1 | GQR for Senate Majority PAC D-sponsored | 800 LV | Peggy Flanagan D 50 · Michele Tafoya R 42 · Marisa Simonetti I 4 | +8.0 |
| Sep 30 from Sep 29 | Big Data Poll for Public Polling Project | 622 LV | Peggy Flanagan D 45.8 · Michele Tafoya R 43.6 · Marisa Simonetti I 5.4 | +2.2 |
Money
FEC candidate committee totals for the 2026 cycle, through October 14, 2026. Outside for / against is Schedule E independent spending by other committees to support or oppose the candidate. Each figure links to the candidate's FEC page.
Platform ad spend
Meta's Ad Library Report, Google's Ads Transparency Center and Snap's political-ads library. An advertiser is tied to a candidate only when its name carries the candidate's surname together with this state or the candidate's full name; outside groups that do not name a candidate appear in the state and district totals, not here.
| Platform | Advertiser | Tied to | Spend | Window |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peggy Flanagan for Minnesota | Peggy Flanagan D | $148k | last 4 weeks |
Meta in Minnesota: $1.6M Oct 25, 2026 - Oct 31, 2026 · Google in Minnesota: $52.1M lifetime · Snap targeted at Minnesota: $81k in 2026.
All senate races → · The races hub → · JSON
Polls: PollResults.org (New York Times poll data), CC BY 4.0 (1,579 poll questions in the window). Money: FEC candidate totals and Schedule E independent-expenditure totals for the 2026 cycle. Platform ad spend: Meta Ad Library Report (U.S., 7-day preset, read from the report page), Google Ads Transparency Center CSV bundle and Snap political ads library, via Corvus Intel. Snapshot 2026-11-04 00:20 UTC, refreshed every six hours. No model wrote these figures, and no prediction-market price is used. Read how we work, or see the Politics desk for the analysis built on top of them. JSON.