Texas Senate
Candidates
| Candidate | Party | Poll avg | Latest poll | Raised | Cash | Outside for / against |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Talarico | D | 49.4% (8) | 49% | $146.3M | $9.9M | $10.1M / $2.6M |
| Ken Paxton | R | 46.6% (8) | 46% | $22.3M | $4.8M | $2.9M / $54.4M |
| Ted Brown | L | 1.3% (5) | — | $14k | $1k | — |
Unweighted mean of the latest general-election poll from each of 8 pollsters since 2026-09-20.
Tracking the poll average daily since November 3, 2026; a chart appears after three days.
Polls 65 in the window
| Field dates | Pollster | Sample | Result | D − R |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2 from Oct 31 | Research Co. | 450 LV | James Talarico D 49 · Ken Paxton R 46 · Ted Brown L 1 | +3.0 |
| Nov 1 from Oct 31 | Emerson College for Poll Vault | 500 LV | James Talarico D 49.8 · Ken Paxton R 48.4 · Ted Brown L 1.8 | +1.4 |
| Nov 1 from Oct 31 | Trafalgar Group R-sponsored | 1,089 LV | Ken Paxton R 48.1 · James Talarico D 47.5 · Ted Brown L 2.4 | -0.6 |
| Nov 1 from Oct 28 | AtlasIntel | 1,678 A | James Talarico D 51.3 · Ken Paxton R 45.4 | +5.9 |
| Nov 1 from Oct 27 | The New York Times/Siena University | 1,215 LV | James Talarico D 50.2 · Ken Paxton R 43.1 | +7.1 |
| Nov 1 from Oct 27 | The New York Times/Siena University | 1,215 RV | James Talarico D 51.5 · Ken Paxton R 39.3 | +12.2 |
| Oct 30 from Oct 27 | Kreate Strategies | 900 LV | James Talarico D 48 · Ken Paxton R 45 · Ted Brown L 0 | +3.0 |
| Oct 29 from Oct 26 | YouGov | 2,138 LV | James Talarico D 51 · Ken Paxton R 47 | +4.0 |
| Oct 28 from Oct 26 | Quantus Insights | 1,207 LV | Ken Paxton R 49.4 · James Talarico D 48.4 · Ted Brown L 1.4 | -1.0 |
| Oct 28 from Oct 22 | ActiVote | 400 LV | James Talarico D 52.1 · Ken Paxton R 47.9 | +4.2 |
| Oct 27 from Oct 23 | A2 Insights | 631 LV | James Talarico D 50.2 · Ken Paxton R 47.2 | +3.0 |
| Oct 27 from Oct 20 | CNN/SSRS | 923 LV | James Talarico D 49 · Ken Paxton R 43 · Neither 5 | +6.0 |
| Oct 26 from Oct 23 | Data for Progress | 712 LV | James Talarico D 49 · Ken Paxton R 45 · Ted Brown L 2 | +4.0 |
| Oct 26 from Oct 21 | YouGov Blue for 254 Labs | 1,000 RV | James Talarico D 52 · Ken Paxton R 43 | +9.0 |
| Oct 26 from Oct 21 | YouGov Blue for 254 Labs | 1,000 LV | James Talarico D 51 · Ken Paxton R 43 | +8.0 |
Money
FEC candidate committee totals for the 2026 cycle, through October 14, 2026. Outside for / against is Schedule E independent spending by other committees to support or oppose the candidate. Each figure links to the candidate's FEC page.
Platform ad spend
Meta's Ad Library Report, Google's Ads Transparency Center and Snap's political-ads library. An advertiser is tied to a candidate only when its name carries the candidate's surname together with this state or the candidate's full name; outside groups that do not name a candidate appear in the state and district totals, not here.
| Platform | Advertiser | Tied to | Spend | Window |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meta | James Talarico paid for by TALARICO FOR TEXAS | James Talarico D | $691k | Oct 25, 2026 - Oct 31, 2026 |
| Meta | Team Talarico paid for by TALARICO FOR TEXAS | James Talarico D | $101k | Oct 25, 2026 - Oct 31, 2026 |
| TALARICO FOR TEXAS | James Talarico D | $2.6M | last 4 weeks | |
| Talarico For Texas | James Talarico D | $1.2M | last 4 weeks | |
| KEN PAXTON FOR SENATE | Ken Paxton R | $476k | last 4 weeks | |
| Snap | Ken Paxton for Senate 2 ads | Ken Paxton R | $172 | 2026 to date |
Meta in Texas: $10.1M Oct 25, 2026 - Oct 31, 2026 · Google in Texas: $208.1M lifetime · Snap targeted at Texas: $595k in 2026.
All senate races → · The races hub → · JSON
Polls: PollResults.org (New York Times poll data), CC BY 4.0 (1,579 poll questions in the window). Money: FEC candidate totals and Schedule E independent-expenditure totals for the 2026 cycle. Platform ad spend: Meta Ad Library Report (U.S., 7-day preset, read from the report page), Google Ads Transparency Center CSV bundle and Snap political ads library, via Corvus Intel. Snapshot 2026-11-04 00:20 UTC, refreshed every six hours. No model wrote these figures, and no prediction-market price is used. Read how we work, or see the Politics desk for the analysis built on top of them. JSON.