Senate

Arkansas Senate

Seat held by Republicans · incumbent Tom Cotton R running · Election Day was November 3, 2026. The polls shown are the final pre-election field.

PollsTom Cotton R +12.552.5% in the average of 2 pollsters since Sep 20, 1 partisan-sponsored

Money$18.6Mraised by listed candidates; Tom Cotton leads with $14.5M

Outside spending$5.1Mindependent expenditures for and against the listed candidates

Implied ratingLikelyfrom the poll leader's margin over the runner-up

Candidates

Candidate	Party	Poll avg	Latest poll	Raised	Cash	Outside for / against
Tom Cotton incumbent	R	52.5% (2)	55%	$14.5M	$5.1M	$1.3M / —
Hallie Shoffner	D	40% (2)	39%	$4.0M	$757k	— / $3.8M
Jeff Wadlin	L	4.3% (2)	4%	$80k	$6k	—

Unweighted mean of the latest general-election poll from each of 2 pollsters since 2026-09-20.

Tracking the poll average daily since November 3, 2026; a chart appears after three days.

Polls 6 in the window

Field dates	Pollster	Sample	Result	D − R
Oct 28 from Oct 27	GrayHouse for America One Policies R-sponsored	509 LV	Tom Cotton R 55 · Hallie Shoffner D 39 · Jeff Wadlin L 4	-16.0
Oct 13 from Oct 8	Hendrix College for Talk Business & Politics	709 LV	Tom Cotton R 50 · Hallie Shoffner D 41 · Jeff Wadlin L 4.5	-9.0
Oct 4 from Sep 30	GrayHouse for America One Policies R-sponsored	550 LV	Tom Cotton R 50 · Hallie Shoffner D 39 · Jeff Wadlin L 4	-11.0
Aug 18 from Aug 14	J.L. Partners	803 LV	Tom Cotton R 51 · Hallie Shoffner D 35 · Jeff Wadlin L 4	-16.0
Aug 12 from Aug 11	Hendrix College for Talk Business & Politics	1,217 LV	Hallie Shoffner D 47.4 · Tom Cotton R 44 · Jeff Wadlin L 2.95	+3.4
Jul 25 from Jul 17	2040 Strategy Group D-sponsored	586 LV	Tom Cotton R 46 · Hallie Shoffner D 43	-3.0

Money

FEC candidate committee totals for the 2026 cycle, through October 14, 2026. Outside for / against is Schedule E independent spending by other committees to support or oppose the candidate. Each figure links to the candidate's FEC page.

Platform ad spend

Meta's Ad Library Report, Google's Ads Transparency Center and Snap's political-ads library. An advertiser is tied to a candidate only when its name carries the candidate's surname together with this state or the candidate's full name; outside groups that do not name a candidate appear in the state and district totals, not here.

Platform	Advertiser	Tied to	Spend	Window
Google	COTTON FOR SENATE, INC.	Tom Cotton R	$246k	last 4 weeks
Google	HALLIE SHOFFNER FOR ARKANSAS	Hallie Shoffner D	$173k	last 4 weeks

Meta in Arkansas: $410k Oct 25, 2026 - Oct 31, 2026 · Google in Arkansas: $10.9M lifetime · Snap targeted at Arkansas: $8k in 2026.

All senate races → · The races hub → · JSON

Polls: PollResults.org (New York Times poll data), CC BY 4.0 (1,579 poll questions in the window). Money: FEC candidate totals and Schedule E independent-expenditure totals for the 2026 cycle. Platform ad spend: Meta Ad Library Report (U.S., 7-day preset, read from the report page), Google Ads Transparency Center CSV bundle and Snap political ads library, via Corvus Intel. Snapshot 2026-11-04 00:20 UTC, refreshed every six hours. No model wrote these figures, and no prediction-market price is used. Read how we work, or see the Politics desk for the analysis built on top of them. JSON.