House

New York 17th District

Seat held by Republicans · incumbent Mike Lawler R running · Election Day was November 3, 2026. The polls shown are the final pre-election field.

PollsMike Lawler R +0.347.8% in the average of 2 pollsters since Sep 20, 1 partisan-sponsored

Money$21.0Mraised by listed candidates; Cait Conley leads with $10.7M

Outside spending$14.4Mindependent expenditures for and against the listed candidates

Implied ratingToss-upfrom the poll leader's margin over the runner-up

Candidates

Candidate	Party	Poll avg	Latest poll	Raised	Cash	Outside for / against
Mike Lawler incumbent	R	47.8% (2)	50%	$10.3M	$2.0M	$268k / $1.3M
Cait Conley	D	47.5% (2)	47%	$10.7M	$949k	$3.5M / $9.2M

Unweighted mean of the latest general-election poll from each of 2 pollsters since 2026-09-20.

Tracking the poll average daily since November 3, 2026; a chart appears after three days.

Polls 3 in the window

Field dates	Pollster	Sample	Result	D − R
Sep 30 from Sep 28	McLaughlin & Associates R-sponsored	400 LV	Mike Lawler R 50 · Cait Conley D 47	-3.0
Sep 29 from Sep 27	Emerson College for PIX 11	400 LV	Cait Conley D 47.9 · Mike Lawler R 45.6	+2.3
Jul 22 from Jul 20	co/efficient	1,292 LV	Mike Lawler R 50 · Cait Conley D 45	-5.0

Money

FEC candidate committee totals for the 2026 cycle, through October 14, 2026. Outside for / against is Schedule E independent spending by other committees to support or oppose the candidate. Each figure links to the candidate's FEC page.

Platform ad spend

Meta's Ad Library Report, Google's Ads Transparency Center and Snap's political-ads library. An advertiser is tied to a candidate only when its name carries the candidate's surname together with this state or the candidate's full name; outside groups that do not name a candidate appear in the state and district totals, not here.

Platform	Advertiser	Tied to	Spend	Window
Google	LAWLER FOR CONGRESS, INC.	Mike Lawler R	$98k	last 4 weeks

Meta in New York: $3.6M Oct 25, 2026 - Oct 31, 2026 · Google in this district: $8.3M lifetime under the current map · Google in New York: $108.0M lifetime · Snap targeted at New York: $222k in 2026.

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Polls: PollResults.org (New York Times poll data), CC BY 4.0 (1,579 poll questions in the window). Money: FEC candidate totals and Schedule E independent-expenditure totals for the 2026 cycle. Platform ad spend: Meta Ad Library Report (U.S., 7-day preset, read from the report page), Google Ads Transparency Center CSV bundle and Snap political ads library, via Corvus Intel. Snapshot 2026-11-04 00:20 UTC, refreshed every six hours. No model wrote these figures, and no prediction-market price is used. Read how we work, or see the Politics desk for the analysis built on top of them. JSON.