House

Maine 2nd District

open seat · Election Day was November 3, 2026. The polls shown are the final pre-election field.

PollsPaul LePage R +0.549% in the average of 2 pollsters since Sep 20, 1 partisan-sponsored

Money$6.3Mraised by listed candidates; Paul LePage leads with $3.3M

Outside spending$9.0Mindependent expenditures for and against the listed candidates

Implied ratingToss-upfrom the poll leader's margin over the runner-up

Candidates

Candidate	Party	Poll avg	Latest poll	Raised	Cash	Outside for / against
Paul LePage	R	49% (2)	52%	$3.3M	$848k	$13k / $4.2M
Matt Dunlap	D	48.5% (2)	47%	$3.0M	$444k	$231k / $4.5M

Unweighted mean of the latest general-election poll from each of 2 pollsters since 2026-09-20.

Tracking the poll average daily since November 3, 2026; a chart appears after three days.

Polls 7 in the window

Field dates	Pollster	Sample	Result	D − R
Oct 31 from Oct 27	University of New Hampshire	793 LV	Paul LePage R 52 · Matt Dunlap D 47	-5.0
Oct 14 from Oct 12	Tulchin Research D-sponsored	500 LV	Matt Dunlap D 50 · Paul LePage R 46	+4.0
Sep 30 from Sep 27	Tulchin Research D-sponsored	500 LV	Matt Dunlap D 50 · Paul LePage R 48	+2.0
Sep 21 from Sep 17	University of New Hampshire	622 LV	Matt Dunlap D 51 · Paul LePage R 45	+6.0
Sep 12 from Sep 8	Impact Research for House Majority PAC D-sponsored	500 LV	Paul LePage R 49 · Matt Dunlap D 49	0.0
Aug 13 from Aug 11	DCCC Targeting Team D-sponsored	621 LV	Paul LePage R 49 · Matt Dunlap D 48	-1.0
Jul 16 from Jul 11	Tulchin Research D-sponsored	600 LV	Matt Dunlap D 49 · Paul LePage R 48	+1.0

Money

FEC candidate committee totals for the 2026 cycle, through October 14, 2026. Outside for / against is Schedule E independent spending by other committees to support or oppose the candidate. Each figure links to the candidate's FEC page.

Platform ad spend

Meta's Ad Library Report, Google's Ads Transparency Center and Snap's political-ads library. An advertiser is tied to a candidate only when its name carries the candidate's surname together with this state or the candidate's full name; outside groups that do not name a candidate appear in the state and district totals, not here.

No advertiser on either platform names a candidate in this race.

Meta in Maine: $1.7M Oct 25, 2026 - Oct 31, 2026 · Google in this district: $18.1M lifetime under the current map · Google in Maine: $42.7M lifetime · Snap targeted at Maine: $467k in 2026.

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Polls: PollResults.org (New York Times poll data), CC BY 4.0 (1,579 poll questions in the window). Money: FEC candidate totals and Schedule E independent-expenditure totals for the 2026 cycle. Platform ad spend: Meta Ad Library Report (U.S., 7-day preset, read from the report page), Google Ads Transparency Center CSV bundle and Snap political ads library, via Corvus Intel. Snapshot 2026-11-04 00:20 UTC, refreshed every six hours. No model wrote these figures, and no prediction-market price is used. Read how we work, or see the Politics desk for the analysis built on top of them. JSON.