Florida Senate (special)
Candidates
| Candidate | Party | Poll avg | Latest poll | Raised | Cash | Outside for / against |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashley Moody incumbent | R | 49.5% (8) | 51% | $14.5M | $816k | $1.3M / $72k |
| Angie Nixon | D | 43.4% (8) | 44% | $11.3M | $3.3M | $12k / — |
Unweighted mean of the latest general-election poll from each of 8 pollsters since 2026-09-20.
Tracking the poll average daily since November 3, 2026; a chart appears after three days.
Polls 31 in the window
| Field dates | Pollster | Sample | Result | D − R |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2 from Oct 31 | Research Co. | 450 LV | Ashley Moody R 51 · Angie Nixon D 44 · Neil Gillespie I 1 | -7.0 |
| Oct 30 from Oct 26 | Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research | 859 LV | Ashley Moody R 49 · Angie Nixon D 45 | -4.0 |
| Oct 30 from Oct 26 | Big Data Poll for 1776 Law Center | Public Polling Project | 1,067 LV | Ashley Moody R 51.6 · Angie Nixon D 44.7 · Neil Gillespie I 3.8 | -6.9 |
| Oct 30 from Oct 26 | Big Data Poll for 1776 Law Center | Public Polling Project | 1,122 RV | Ashley Moody R 50.9 · Angie Nixon D 44.5 · Neil Gillespie I 4.5 | -6.4 |
| Oct 29 from Oct 26 | Targoz Market Research | 1,013 LV | Ashley Moody R 52 · Angie Nixon D 43 | -9.0 |
| Oct 29 from Oct 28 | InsiderAdvantage | 1,200 LV | Ashley Moody R 48.5 · Angie Nixon D 42.7 · Neil Gillespie I 2.4 | -5.8 |
| Oct 28 from Oct 26 | The Political Matrix/The Listener Group | 500 LV | Ashley Moody R 41.8 · Angie Nixon D 35.8 | -6.0 |
| Oct 27 from Oct 25 | St. Pete Polls for Florida Politics | 916 LV | Ashley Moody R 49 · Angie Nixon D 44.7 | -4.3 |
| Oct 27 from Oct 17 | ActiVote | 400 LV | Ashley Moody R 53 · Angie Nixon D 47 | -6.0 |
| Oct 25 from Oct 19 | The New York Times/Siena University | 813 LV | Ashley Moody R 50.35 · Angie Nixon D 44.32 | -6.0 |
| Oct 23 from Oct 16 | Echelon Insights for NetChoice | 515 LV | Ashley Moody R 51 · Angie Nixon D 43 · Neil Gillespie I 3 | -8.0 |
| Oct 22 from Oct 18 | Workbench Strategy D-sponsored | 800 LV | Ashley Moody R 49 · Angie Nixon D 47 | -2.0 |
| Oct 20 from Oct 18 | co/efficient | 1,014 LV | Ashley Moody R 48 · Angie Nixon D 40 · Neil Gillespie I 2 | -8.0 |
| Oct 20 from Oct 18 | co/efficient | 1,014 LV | Generic Candidate O 4 | — |
| Oct 19 from Oct 12 | University of North Florida | 1,471 LV | Ashley Moody R 49 · Angie Nixon D 45 | -4.0 |
Money
FEC candidate committee totals for the 2026 cycle, through October 14, 2026. Outside for / against is Schedule E independent spending by other committees to support or oppose the candidate. Each figure links to the candidate's FEC page.
Platform ad spend
Meta's Ad Library Report, Google's Ads Transparency Center and Snap's political-ads library. An advertiser is tied to a candidate only when its name carries the candidate's surname together with this state or the candidate's full name; outside groups that do not name a candidate appear in the state and district totals, not here.
| Platform | Advertiser | Tied to | Spend | Window |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meta | Angie Nixon for Florida paid for by Angie For Florida | Angie Nixon D | $189k | Oct 25, 2026 - Oct 31, 2026 |
| Meta | Ashley Moody paid for by MOODY FOR FLORIDA | Ashley Moody R | $113k | Oct 25, 2026 - Oct 31, 2026 |
| MOODY FOR FLORIDA | Ashley Moody R | $541k | last 4 weeks |
Meta in Florida: $4.8M Oct 25, 2026 - Oct 31, 2026 · Google in Florida: $164.0M lifetime · Snap targeted at Florida: $27k in 2026.
All senate races → · The races hub → · JSON
Polls: PollResults.org (New York Times poll data), CC BY 4.0 (1,579 poll questions in the window). Money: FEC candidate totals and Schedule E independent-expenditure totals for the 2026 cycle. Platform ad spend: Meta Ad Library Report (U.S., 7-day preset, read from the report page), Google Ads Transparency Center CSV bundle and Snap political ads library, via Corvus Intel. Snapshot 2026-11-04 00:20 UTC, refreshed every six hours. No model wrote these figures, and no prediction-market price is used. Read how we work, or see the Politics desk for the analysis built on top of them. JSON.