Idaho Senate
Candidates
| Candidate | Party | Poll avg | Latest poll | Raised | Cash | Outside for / against |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Risch incumbent | R | 51.5% (2) | 49% | $5.0M | $2.1M | — |
| Todd Achilles | I | 35% (2) | 43% | $1.9M | $196k | — |
| Natalie Fleming | I | 3% (1) | — | — | — | — |
| Matt Loesby | L | 2% (1) | — | — | — | — |
Unweighted mean of the latest general-election poll from each of 2 pollsters since 2026-09-20.
Tracking the poll average daily since November 3, 2026; a chart appears after three days.
Polls 8 in the window
| Field dates | Pollster | Sample | Result | D − R |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22 from Oct 21 | VoteNexus for Knock Every Door PAC I-sponsored | 700 LV | James Risch R 49 · Todd Achilles I 43 | — |
| Oct 15 from Oct 13 | Peak Insights R-sponsored | 500 LV | James Risch R 54 · Todd Achilles I 27 · Natalie Fleming I 3 | — |
| Sep 30 from Sep 28 | Peak Insights R-sponsored | 500 LV | James Risch R 49 · Todd Achilles I 24 · Natalie Fleming I 3 | — |
| Aug 13 from Aug 11 | Peak Insights R-sponsored | 500 LV | James Risch R 52 · Todd Achilles I 18 · Natalie Fleming I 9 | — |
| Aug 7 from Aug 4 | The Bullfinch Group I-sponsored | 608 LV | Todd Achilles I 38 · James Risch R 33 | — |
| Aug 7 from Aug 4 | The Bullfinch Group I-sponsored | 608 LV | James Risch R 34 · Todd Achilles I 30 · Matt Loesby L 4 | — |
| Jul 30 from Jul 28 | Change Research I-sponsored | — LV | James Risch R 45 · Todd Achilles I 21 · Natalie Fleming I 8 | — |
| Jul 30 from Jul 28 | Change Research I-sponsored | — LV | James Risch R 43 · Todd Achilles I 19 · David Roth D 13 | -30.0 |
Money
FEC candidate committee totals for the 2026 cycle, through October 14, 2026. Outside for / against is Schedule E independent spending by other committees to support or oppose the candidate. Each figure links to the candidate's FEC page.
Platform ad spend
Meta's Ad Library Report, Google's Ads Transparency Center and Snap's political-ads library. An advertiser is tied to a candidate only when its name carries the candidate's surname together with this state or the candidate's full name; outside groups that do not name a candidate appear in the state and district totals, not here.
No advertiser on either platform names a candidate in this race.
Meta in Idaho: $313k Oct 25, 2026 - Oct 31, 2026 · Google in Idaho: $6.9M lifetime · Snap targeted at Idaho: $14k in 2026.
All senate races → · The races hub → · JSON
Polls: PollResults.org (New York Times poll data), CC BY 4.0 (1,579 poll questions in the window). Money: FEC candidate totals and Schedule E independent-expenditure totals for the 2026 cycle. Platform ad spend: Meta Ad Library Report (U.S., 7-day preset, read from the report page), Google Ads Transparency Center CSV bundle and Snap political ads library, via Corvus Intel. Snapshot 2026-11-04 00:20 UTC, refreshed every six hours. No model wrote these figures, and no prediction-market price is used. Read how we work, or see the Politics desk for the analysis built on top of them. JSON.