The 2028 field, early
Two years out, what exists is primary-stage polling. Nothing here is a general-election average, because there is no general-election field yet, and no money is shown because the 2028 committees have not opened.
What is on this page, and what is not
No results, no odds. There is no free, documented feed of vote counts or race calls, so this page does not pretend to one, and it does not use prediction-market prices. It carries the two things that have public feeds: the polls (New York Times poll data via PollResults.org, CC BY 4.0) and the money (Federal Election Commission candidate totals and independent-expenditure totals; governors are state-regulated and have no federal money feed).
The implied rating on each race is derived from the poll leader's margin over the runner-up — 15 points or more is Safe, 8 Likely, 4 Lean, under 4 a Toss-up. It is not a handicapper's call. An unpolled seat shows the top fundraiser from each major party, labelled as such. The party shown as held is the party holding the seat going into the election. Figures as of 2026-11-04 00:20 UTC.
National primary averages
Democratic primary
- Kamala Harris26.1%
- Gavin Newsom14.8%
- Pete Buttigieg10.2%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez9.1%
- Jon Ossoff6.4%
- Mark Kelly6.2%
- Josh Shapiro4.8%
- Cory Booker3.3%
Unweighted mean of 10 pollsters since Sep 5; names in at least half the polls.
Republican primary
- JD Vance38.9%
- Marco Rubio17.9%
- Donald Trump Jr.14.4%
- Ron DeSantis8.4%
- Robert F. Kennedy4.4%
- Nikki Haley3.5%
- Ted Cruz3.1%
- Tucker Carlson1.8%
Unweighted mean of 9 pollsters since Sep 5; names in at least half the polls.
Recent primary polls
| Field dates | Pollster | Sample | Result | D − R |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30 from Oct 26 | Big Data Poll for 1776 Law Center | Public Polling Project FL primary | — LV | JD Vance R 30.6 · Ron DeSantis R 25.6 · Marco Rubio R 25.2 · Robert F. Kennedy R 4.5 | — |
| Oct 26 from Oct 24 | HarrisX/Harris Poll for Harvard CAPS primary | — RV | JD Vance R 40 · Donald Trump Jr. R 21 · Marco Rubio R 21 · Robert F. Kennedy R 8 | — |
| Oct 26 from Oct 24 | HarrisX/Harris Poll for Harvard CAPS primary | — RV | Kamala Harris D 34 · Gavin Newsom D 20 · Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez D 11 · Pete Buttigieg D 10 | — |
| Oct 25 from Oct 23 | Leger primary | 375 RV | Kamala Harris D 22 · Gavin Newsom D 14 · Pete Buttigieg D 8 · Mark Kelly D 7 | — |
| Oct 25 from Oct 23 | Leger primary | 323 RV | JD Vance R 37 · Marco Rubio R 16 · Donald Trump Jr. R 12 · Ron DeSantis R 7 | — |
| Oct 21 from Oct 15 | Clarity Campaign Labs primary | 413 LV | JD Vance R 40 · Donald Trump Jr. R 17 · Marco Rubio R 17 · Ron DeSantis R 9 | — |
| Oct 20 from Oct 17 | McLaughlin & Associates for California Post CA primary | 419 LV | Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez D 18 · Pete Buttigieg D 17 · Gavin Newsom D 14 · Mark Kelly D 10 | — |
| Oct 20 from Oct 19 | St. Anselm NH primary | 734 LV | Marco Rubio R 38 · JD Vance R 38 · Ron DeSantis R 5 · Robert F. Kennedy R 4 | — |
| Oct 20 from Oct 19 | St. Anselm NH primary | 784 LV | Pete Buttigieg D 28 · Jon Ossoff D 14 · Mark Kelly D 11 · Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez D 10 | — |
| Oct 19 from Oct 12 | The New York Times/Siena University primary | 850 RV | JD Vance R 32.89 · Marco Rubio R 23.5 · Donald Trump R 8.37 · Ron DeSantis R 3.33 | -32.7 |
| Oct 19 from Oct 12 | The New York Times/Siena University primary | 1,170 RV | Kamala Harris D 12.13 · Gavin Newsom D 8.97 · Pete Buttigieg D 6.54 · Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez D 5.5 | — |
| Oct 19 from Oct 15 | Echelon Insights primary | 417 LV | JD Vance R 38 · Marco Rubio R 20 · Ron DeSantis R 12 · Donald Trump Jr. R 7 | — |
| Oct 19 from Oct 15 | Echelon Insights primary | 522 LV | Kamala Harris D 19 · Gavin Newsom D 14 · Pete Buttigieg D 13 · Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez D 13 | — |
| Oct 14 from Oct 10 | YouGov for Pablo Torre Finds Out | The Bulwark general | 1,413 A | Pete Buttigieg D 36 · JD Vance R 34 · Aaron Rodgers I 7 | +2.0 |
| Oct 14 from Oct 10 | YouGov for Pablo Torre Finds Out | The Bulwark general | 1,407 A | JD Vance R 34 · Mark Cuban D 34 · Aaron Rodgers I 6 | 0.0 |
Polls: PollResults.org (New York Times poll data), CC BY 4.0 (1,579 poll questions in the window). Money: FEC candidate totals and Schedule E independent-expenditure totals for the 2026 cycle. Platform ad spend: Meta Ad Library Report (U.S., 7-day preset, read from the report page), Google Ads Transparency Center CSV bundle and Snap political ads library, via Corvus Intel. Snapshot 2026-11-04 00:20 UTC, refreshed every six hours. No model wrote these figures, and no prediction-market price is used. Read how we work, or see the Politics desk for the analysis built on top of them. JSON.