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00:00:36oh of good evening and welcome to another edition of capital market live on
00:00:40of channels television, we're going to be analyzing the first trading week of
00:00:44august that's over um now and we're going to move into the
00:00:48other parts um of augus, but first off let's
00:00:50of um kick off now with what played out with global markets that we track we see for
00:00:54European stock markets the open the final trading day
00:00:57of the week in positive territory with the stock 600 benchmark up
00:01:00by 0.24% uh after about 8:15
00:01:04of a.m. then we see at
00:01:05a close of trade on friday the 400 did close in the green
00:01:09of 0.31% up dacks in germany
00:01:120.69% higher than the CAC4 in
00:01:15France 0.17% up
00:01:178,714 points definitely we did see lot
00:01:21of sentiment there dragging the indexes up also for the trading
00:01:25week uh in Europe now we see for Asia Pacific markets uh was said to open
00:01:29mix on Friday on higher oil prices after Iran published
00:01:33a restrictive draft plan for the straight of Ramos now we see the
00:01:36Japan Japan's nick 825 that was post to
00:01:40decline you know slightly but if we move over to Asian markets there we
00:01:44did see mix sentiment the nike down 0.12% on
00:01:48a Friday the shagai compas
00:01:49it 1.02% higher and the hangsing index um
00:01:530.5 4% to the good flip over to US
00:01:57of markets
00:01:58of now I will
00:01:58see they were all
00:01:59up on Friday. with a tech heavy nasdaq there
00:02:021.30% advance um for the uh for the
00:02:06of trading day, it was also green for the whole trading week, most
00:02:09of them were up about two to three to 5% for these markets, the
00:02:13S&P 500 0.62% higher so was it was great
00:02:17for um US markets, that's for
00:02:19of this trading week, the first one
00:02:22of in of august. let's flip over to commodities now, they delivered the sharply
00:02:25of mixed performance this week with precious metals rallying while all
00:02:30prices that came under significant pressure, even though we did
00:02:33see um oil rising from about
00:02:36Wednesday um this week for gold the whole trading week was
00:02:40up 7.44% uh breaking the
00:02:43of $4,300 level there was this see silver there
00:02:47$63.47 per house up a full
00:02:5010.23% actually outpacing um
00:02:54gold
00:02:55of because you on some
00:02:55of the trading days there we did see um we did see gold i'll pay
00:02:59sil uh
00:03:00but now for the whole trading week silva did better
00:03:04of 10.23% higher then for oil we see brent there
00:03:079.16% down for the whole trading weeki a
00:03:11big 11.20% um drop there closing
00:03:15that 77 definitely on
00:03:19the back of deescalation but versus still trying to
00:03:22understand
00:03:23of um what's
00:03:25of happening around the state of hormoz and the war in Iran you know at this point
00:03:28still trying to figure it out. but that's that's the the first trading week
00:03:32of August, that's
00:03:34of how - major uh commodities traded for this week was quite
00:03:37mixed um right there all right let's move
00:03:39in to the equities market now uh end
00:03:44of of the week uh marginally higher with barging hunting in first oldco zen
00:03:48Nigeria helping to offset significant losses in
00:03:51ETI sugar and trans core the NGX
00:03:55allsia
00:03:55of index was by 0.1% week on week to
00:03:58245,000 573 points taking year today
00:04:02games to 57.8%. trading volume also
00:04:06increased by 9.1%, although trading
00:04:10value that plungeed
00:04:15of by 64.7%. the banking sector led gains rising 2.4% while insurance and consumer goods stocks i
00:04:19came under lot of pressure
00:04:21so we see the the load gainer for the week there 2.3%
00:04:24advance that's the banking counter uh then we see the lacks of consumer
00:04:27goods, industrial goods ' the rest all
00:04:31of in the red, but insurance there,
00:04:33of the drop lot there, about
00:04:343.31%. all right, we see the Nigerian
00:04:38of Exchange, they're setting the site even higher with
00:04:42of the NGX group, CEO, Mr. Timmy,
00:04:45projecting that the market value of
00:04:49listed companies could reach
00:04:51of 230 of trillion
00:04:54of nira, and that's by the end of
00:04:57of 2026, of the projection
00:04:58of comes as the market is exp. significantly with listed
00:05:02of equities now valued about 160 trillion
00:05:06nara up from roughly 30 trillion now in
00:05:092023. Mr. says: major
00:05:13anticipated listings including uh the dangute
00:05:17refiner alongside you know sustained investor
00:05:20interest could drive the next leg of growth
00:05:24so quite a quite an ambitious target there um looking
00:05:28at the the market cap projection of 230
00:05:32trillion nara by the end of 2026 well we've seen so
00:05:36much um so far so it doesn't seem that far
00:05:40off you now if you look at it from where we are ' right now
00:05:43all right, let's unpack the training week and some the big headlines
00:05:47uh from this uh week, joining me now is
00:05:50uh Mr. Kudus Adebar is a research analyst at DLM
00:05:54securities and it joins me right here in the studio to analyze what has
00:05:58played out so far and maybe what to expect um
00:06:01next week, great to have you on the show, yes you're welcome
00:06:05sir, yeah so uh quite an interesting targets we
00:06:09have here, 230 trillion that's what
00:06:13is saying the market value could hit by the end of
00:06:172026, what does this mean for investors?
00:06:21if this actually happens,
00:06:22you know, in your opinion? okay, uh, in my opinion i
00:06:26think um, this is exactly shows
00:06:30how um, how strong the market is currently, and i
00:06:34think this value is achievable, um, because
00:06:38um, when we look at um, by next month, by
00:06:41september and... we should have some list in the like of dangute
00:06:45refinery will be listed so adding that to
00:06:48the share index to the market, it's
00:06:52actually going to um drive lot of activities to the market, we've
00:06:56seen what happened in the l of when we have the ipo um played
00:07:00outs um at the particular time now the listing is they have
00:07:03been preparing how to list the stock now i think
00:07:07when um the we have the listing the like of
00:07:11dang refine coming on board um this target is going
00:07:15so because the refinery now is is actually beyond just
00:07:18Nigeria alone, it's actually something that can actually trigger what we call the
00:07:22African market as a whole, so we have lot of foreign
00:07:26investors apart from Nigeria and other um
00:07:30in fact the refinery is one the biggest thing and it's actually going
00:07:34to rechape the markets and we see um the
00:07:37Johannesburg stock exchange they were actually
00:07:40courting refinery. you know asking for
00:07:44secondary listing you know at this point so we we're seeing other you know African
00:07:48exchanges showing interest yes you know in that listing too yes
00:07:51i think it's important just like
00:07:54what i said earlier i said um the listing the refinery
00:07:57is just beyond the NGX alone it's actually about the
00:08:01African stock exchanges all so and when
00:08:05we still valued comparing it currently now - we have
00:08:09news going around that the refinary currently supply over 20% percent
00:08:12jet for for the for the europe country, they can still
00:08:16do more with this um expansion that we going on and given
00:08:20the view that um the leadership for the um refinering and other
00:08:24corporate bodies the um structure that was been play that was
00:08:28being put in place i think is beyond just
00:08:32even african stock uh market alone is actually a
00:08:35global because the um how um the
00:08:39standard and how because our target is actually to make the
00:08:43refinery, the top one, like one the best
00:08:47refinery in the world, so uh, it's something that could actually drive
00:08:51our markets a positive way, right? and hopefully we get other
00:08:55you know big listings
00:08:56you know
00:08:57too, because i i believe we would like to see all the listings after the danguter
00:09:00refinery, yes also they there is also a market that probably
00:09:04in 2028 you can have the like of npc to listen
00:09:08right by
00:09:08that particular period so it actually shows that um "we have
00:09:12some kind of um strong investor confidence in the markets
00:09:16currently. all right, all right, let's let's look at the trading week, that's the
00:09:20first one um for the month of August, we did see it
00:09:24ended marginally up um for the trading week uh,
00:09:28but we did see lot of rotation
00:09:30you know around sectors there, but the banking counter still managed to out
00:09:34perform
00:09:34you know for the sectors that we track. what do you think really drive sentiments you
00:09:38know this week in your opinion? okay, in my opinion st."
00:09:42from when we look at the top giners that we have, i think one them is the
00:09:46um first odko that we have, so
00:09:50um the major reason is due to the fact that the chairman
00:09:54the bank m actually said
00:09:58he have this opinion of having a controlling units of
00:10:02um the particular bank and these have actually give -
00:10:06mots we call like actually give some kind of investor
00:10:10confidence in that particular sector.
00:10:12because it stake currently, i think you have
00:10:16over um 26% stick and that
00:10:20is above starget controlling unit of like
00:10:23half of it is currently. at the halfway so I believe
00:10:27that because the sentiment that oh we have a
00:10:31prominent shareholders in the lack of one the biggest bank that we have
00:10:35in Nigeria which is the first odko um this
00:10:39actually give attention to the banking sectors seen
00:10:42the we are currently at the post um recapitalization um
00:10:46period whereby um banks needs to
00:10:50work more on how they use the new capital
00:10:54to get a quality um to generate a a good
00:10:58revenue with the new capital that they have so the
00:11:02post um the post recapitalization the
00:11:05banking sector is something that is still remains
00:11:09strong given the fact that even first odco um
00:11:13even still just completes the second trenches the
00:11:16recapitalization and other banks who are trying to meet
00:11:20up there is a market we have other banks like sterling that
00:11:23may actually have this kind of share reconstruction and the like of things,
00:11:27so there are a lot of sentiments in the banking sectors and just like
00:11:31do said that the banking sector are actually one the like the
00:11:35bedrock to the stock to the nigerian stock
00:11:39markets currently but what do you think is happening with insurance?
00:11:43you know they also had their recapitalization deadline that was for
00:11:4631st of july so that has come and gone, we know the sector was
00:11:50rallying for the month of july but now we're seeing a big pull back
00:11:54for. there 3.31% for this week, is this a sign of
00:11:58things to come for the insurance counter this this month? oh,
00:12:02well on looking at the insurance sectors, yes,
00:12:05currently, we have 43 insurances that have met up the
00:12:09recapitalization, why we have orders that are still on
00:12:13reviewed, so although we have the likes that was claimed that they have
00:12:17actually met the recapitalization, but looking at the insurance in
00:12:21Nigeria, the sectors have been one the sectors that I think need
00:12:25more attentions um because um there is no enough
00:12:28confidence even looking at the lack their business
00:12:32model sometimes something that i think
00:12:36um investors are still have to um reassess it
00:12:39even this recent um half year resort that was
00:12:43released from some them was not really impressive i think that is one the
00:12:47reason what happened and the client of taking profit from the likes the one
00:12:51that have actually it that have over um 100%
00:12:55yet to date um gain i think that is just what's
00:12:59happened i believe that with this recapitalization that we have we could have a
00:13:02slight change in the sectors right
00:13:05so do you think do you see any catalys for this
00:13:08counter um going forward you know in
00:13:122026 is there a catatal is there that could actually drive it up yes one
00:13:15of it is that we have um a turnover in their um in the
00:13:19like the enies so this can actually change um
00:13:23the investors sensiment and also um when you look at
00:13:27for income investors, majority these insurance company
00:13:31only pays like when you look at their dividend yield so
00:13:34something small compared to the banking sectors and this is actually
00:13:38due to
00:13:38the fact that their revenue they have they ensure a whole lot of
00:13:42like high cost and the the other things like that
00:13:46so there are still opportunity in the like the insurance
00:13:49given this recent capital recapitalization that we just have all
00:13:53right so you know going to next week, what are you expecting,
00:13:57what are you expecting investors will do
00:13:59you know in the market next week? okay, by next week, i think um
00:14:03investors are currently um assessing
00:14:07um complain based on their earnings, so one the things that we actually
00:14:11drive markets next week is um this um
00:14:14the previous um because last week we have lot of um rebalance in the
00:14:18market due to the fact that majority the complaint release the half year results
00:14:22so i think um this week in the
00:14:26in the sectors and in the market general, so we have some kind
00:14:29of rebalance in due to the fact that we have to do
00:14:33revaluation on stocks that actually meets the target price
00:14:37of of investor expectation right, and and looking at the
00:14:41banking counter, we know first hold again appeared
00:14:44top um for the for the trading week,
00:14:48is there still room for first hold call in your opinion, came in third
00:14:52there, closing up 12% for this week?
00:14:55145 now is does this one still have room?
00:14:59does it still have room in this month? uh, well yeah, i think
00:15:03one the key drivers to um the rally of
00:15:07first, first is just due to the fact that um
00:15:10the prominent shielder buying the shares is actually one the reason why
00:15:14people actually because that
00:15:15are and the confidence they have in this
00:15:19prominent shielders so is actually the one the key
00:15:22drivers but i think it's important for. us
00:15:25to um assess the company based on their um
00:15:29dividend policy valuation in general, look at the um
00:15:33how their credit rs is being improved and look at the
00:15:37capital adequation and the rest investor just needs to
00:15:40revalue the stock and just not just based
00:15:44on um emotional based on sentiment right so
00:15:48because um we have a prominent shell that buying let me to just
00:15:51buy i think that is i think you call that swimming with the
00:15:55whale yes exactly you know at this point all right we'll definitely
00:15:59keep watching that one but we'll take a break now uh when we come
00:16:03back we'll analyze
00:16:04you know what to expect with the new rules on the NGX us a moment,
00:16:08just stay with
00:16:09us,
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00:17:47Welcome back, we're still analyzing the trading week and what to expect you,
00:17:51going into this month of um August, I still have with me Kudus,
00:17:55the research analyst at DLM security, still with me right here in the
00:17:59studio, uh, great conversation um so far, but we
00:18:02we have new rules you know from the NGX,
00:18:06um,
00:18:07so it's the... minimum price movement rules at this
00:18:11point
00:18:11so to say if a stock price is around a thousand
00:18:15and above minimum trade volume with 1000 units
00:18:19to actually move the share price then if it's a 500
00:18:23n to 999 n you need 5000 units
00:18:27volume below 500
00:18:29n000 units tell me
00:18:33about this what what does this change you know
00:18:37market in your opinion? okay, so in my opinion i think this
00:18:41is um the new um the planned NGS
00:18:45reformed on um equity pricing
00:18:48methodologies, so and i think this is actually
00:18:51important because it's address two things majorly the
00:18:55market structure and price discovery so and i
00:18:59think the major reason for this is just to
00:19:02ensure that um what's actually move
00:19:06um share price. actually driven
00:19:08by um substantial um
00:19:12units like um economical value um
00:19:15transactions not just um small
00:19:18traded and small volume transaction so i think it's
00:19:22important for us to have this minimum threshold just
00:19:25to um increase um to have more effective
00:19:29um price discovery so that the market can actually
00:19:33shows um shows the true
00:19:37or the ' the new investor demand and supply, so let's just put
00:19:41it in that way, and there have also been this concern from the
00:19:44retail um, the retail investors said that,
00:19:47oh, um, this new reformed of equity pricing
00:19:51methodology is not good for us and the like of things like
00:19:55that, but the thing is that um, this is not to band um the
00:19:59retail investor from trading, rather is just
00:20:02to actually um enable the markets
00:20:06to give from very efficient price
00:20:10discovery so not and to reduce and price
00:20:14distruction from small volume trade, so it's
00:20:18actually does it stop, does it stop pump and
00:20:20dumps? is this what you need? because
00:20:24you know we've heard of instances where you just few traders are able
00:20:28to move the price uh yes i think that is one the constant from the
00:20:32retail investors that - that um because you know
00:20:35majority the retail investors this. capital markets, so
00:20:39majority them um react to any small
00:20:42movements in the markets and if we don't have this kind
00:20:46of reformed, it's can actually stop up from certain.
00:20:50because you see domestic and global um foreign
00:20:54investors institutional investors need um what to call
00:20:57reliable pricing mechanics not
00:21:01just that any small um volume
00:21:05trade can actually trigger the official closing price of any stock or
00:21:08this i think um it's actually nice for us
00:21:12to have this kind of reformed and in order to just
00:21:16actually have to qualified our um liquidity.
00:21:20not just um small minor trade moving the markets but rather
00:21:24to see the real test of this particular
00:21:28um reform is just for us to see
00:21:30um the true price
00:21:33recovery
00:21:34that is just the key thing so i'm imagining a stock that's below
00:21:38500 n you know per share doesn't mean
00:21:42we see
00:21:43you know the markets now lot of stocks hardly
00:21:47moving
00:21:48you know in price because they don't meet the 100 thous
00:21:51units uh that is, i think that's one the
00:21:55um effect that people have been looking at that
00:21:59oh uh what if the this i think it's better
00:22:02because you see a market with many small trips
00:22:06but unreliable price is not a
00:22:10healthy market no so we
00:22:13need um a market that can
00:22:16actually be moved by a strong like
00:22:20transactions that can actually move it, so this can actually give
00:22:24um people to rely on the pricing um makeness that we
00:22:28have in the market, so if any stock would not actually
00:22:31mean that treasure, if it doesn't move, i think it's because we
00:22:35not have a substantial um reasonable amount of demand and
00:22:39supply for the stocks and i think it's better although so this
00:22:43could impact some stocks negatively, yes
00:22:46particularly the tiny trader stocks, the tiniest
00:22:50trader stock when be affected in short term, but in long time it's
00:22:54actually it to give very good and price discovery for
00:22:58there right, so if if they don't get this threshold then
00:23:02they'll definitely stay at that price exactly for a long
00:23:05a long time except there is huge demand
00:23:06you know for that stock you know going forward so guess
00:23:10the they have to you know put on their thinking caps you at this point for
00:23:14stocks like that and it's it's actually also assist um retail investors
00:23:18to um focus on um valuations of
00:23:22stocks rather than just um chasing any small
00:23:26movements in the stock price and we have seen a lot that happen last
00:23:29week in such a way that a particular stock gained um today
00:23:33and tomorrow just a minor um change within the
00:23:37price the next day we have seen it's going the other way
00:23:41around so i think it's because people don't know
00:23:45actually know how to value a stocks they don't know
00:23:47how to value a company very well and I think this reform will
00:23:51actually led the retail investors to look into the aspect
00:23:55of um how to actually value a stock rather than
00:23:59just chasing any small movement in the stock so I guess all those meme
00:24:02stocks and zombie stocks are some people call
00:24:06them they might not get any attention in this period all right
00:24:10let's move to another matter now another headline um this
00:24:13week we've talked about uh
00:24:15you know the recent moves with Mr. Femilla but
00:24:19um you did buy 18 billionaire worth
00:24:22again you know recently and you did talk about
00:24:26you know investors um shouldn't you don't follow
00:24:29blindly yeah because you see the big investor
00:24:33moving and you're now you know following and also you buy but
00:24:37this is this seems like a really strategic move you in my mind
00:24:40another 18 billion what is what does this mean about
00:24:44his um how he believes in this stock what is it
00:24:48showing us - well actually shows the level
00:24:51of confidence and conviction that he has for
00:24:54the for the um company and i think um firstco in
00:24:58general need someone like him in that particular
00:25:02space because um looking at one the
00:25:05objective is um looking at um this um the
00:25:09NGs and capital restore plant that
00:25:12i have so i believe in these um banking
00:25:15sectors
00:25:17he he's also nonegable in that particular and he has seen something
00:25:21that probably majority of um retail investors could not
00:25:24even say and he's actually have very good plan on
00:25:28structuring um the the the
00:25:31banks as like the company as a whole so i think
00:25:35it's is it's important for him to do that all right so
00:25:39you know going into um next week we're still expecting more earnings yes
00:25:43um at this point some the other you know big banks the supposed to release their
00:25:47earnings uh come next week what do you seeing you
00:25:50know
00:25:51going further
00:25:52for for these you know tier one bags you think the earnings are going to beat
00:25:55expectations what's your expectation well
00:25:59um it's it's most likely. that
00:26:03we have um a bigger in due to the fact that
00:26:07looking at the interest rate is still at the high side, the
00:26:11lending rate is still currently at the high side and yes
00:26:14i believe that we should have something like that better
00:26:18in
00:26:19is and also one
00:26:20the things that could actually assist them is that um their dividend
00:26:24policy also if some them can actually um increase their dividend
00:26:27because of this recapitalization have actually caused shared um
00:26:31disolution so so investors, people that have been
00:26:34saying, let's say for example 5ive as
00:26:38dividend before, do not want to expect to get something
00:26:42lower,
00:26:42even though some did
00:26:43not even participate in the recapitalization program, so I think these are
00:26:47things that you assist, okay, we'll
00:30:31Hello and welcome to another exciting edition the aspora network,
00:30:35the program that celebrates Nigerians making remarkable strides around the
00:30:39world. I'm tenyor. On today's program, we
00:30:43meet Caleb Adibayo named among the American bar
00:30:46association's top 40 young lawyers. He reflects on his
00:30:50journey from Portarkot to New York, the obstacles he overcame to
00:30:54attend NU and his ambition to help finance
00:30:58Africa's clean energy.