Google Speech-to-Text API Automatic Transcription (Chirp). Treat it as a searchable index of what was broadcast, not a quotation record.
00:00:26political battle is already taking shape and
00:00:29of increasingly the biggest. fights are not necessarily between the APC and
00:00:32of the opposition, but within the political camp around
00:00:34presidentubu. At the
00:00:37of center is the FCT minister, a PDP chifton who says
00:00:41his support for President Tinubu is unwavering, yet whose
00:00:45of cross-party mobilization has put him a collision course with
00:00:49APC governors. His so-called rainbow
00:00:53a coalition has raised a fundamental question: is wik
00:00:57strengthening Tinable's political machinery or? creating a
00:01:00parallel center of
00:01:02a influence. the pushback from the APC
00:01:05of governors has been unmistakable from disagreements over political structures
00:01:09and party tickets to the continuing ramifications
00:01:12of the reverse political crisis. the relationship between week and some
00:01:16governors has exposed the fierce struggle for control
00:01:19ahead of 2027. at the same time the factions
00:01:23are accelerating, opposition parties are attempting to
00:01:26regroup and politicians across the country. are repositioning
00:01:30themselves for what could be a consequential electoral
00:01:34cycle? behind the public declarations is a deeper
00:01:38contest over who controls the parties, who controls the
00:01:41states, who controls the political narrative going into
00:01:442027? so where does this leave
00:01:47of president tinubu, the APC governors, wik and the emerging
00:01:50opposition coalition? is the ruling party sufficiently united to
00:01:54manage the competing
00:01:56of ambitions within its ranks? can we case cross?
00:02:00party strategy coexis with the interests of APC governors,
00:02:03particularly in states where their political calculations differ,
00:02:07and as the battle for 2027 intensifies, is
00:02:11Nigeria witnessing the beginning of new political realignment.
00:02:15Tonight on
00:02:15of Hard Copy Professor For Adibe joins us
00:02:18of to unpack the power,
00:02:20of struggle, alliances and political calculations shaping Nigeria's
00:02:23road to
00:02:242027.
00:02:29of
00:02:42of so let's start with the biggest story right now, when you saw the emo state
00:02:46governor - making that statement, and then of course the
00:02:49back and forth afterwards, yeah, how how did
00:02:53of that, as a professor of political science, what, what went through your
00:02:57head when you
00:02:59of saw this particular...
00:03:00you know situation between the APC governors and wike? well,
00:03:04there are several things that this tells you, first of all
00:03:08uh, in theory people talk about party supremacy, but
00:03:11what we are seeing now is not party supremacy, but
00:03:15supremacy of one man, because all the other
00:03:18parties, you must stay governor, uh,
00:03:22mean i stay governor, elty uh, oshin
00:03:26state governor, from different parties, first of all
00:03:29of you have to declare your alliance to tinubu,
00:03:33so
00:03:34yeson wike maintaining to
00:03:35of be member
00:03:36of the PDP, you wants everybody to believe
00:03:39that all his mission is
00:03:41of to make tinu
00:03:44of uh give him a second term as president, so it is
00:03:47movement away from people are talking
00:03:50about movement towards one party, no
00:03:54it's really showing us
00:03:56of about the rule of one man, that's one thing, the second is that...
00:04:00anywhere you think
00:04:01of there are competing centers of power, you have to look at this as
00:04:04competing centers of power with all you respect
00:04:08as violated what we call all the laws of
00:04:12of power, of for example one
00:04:14of the key laws of power is that you do not compete with
00:04:17your you
00:04:18of know with your master for media
00:04:21of space where he holds media monthly media palace
00:04:25i don't
00:04:25think any other minister or even the vp can do that and survive
00:04:29so that raises number of questions of what
00:04:32is really the nature of agreement
00:04:36of between wike and the president tinubu. you can see we during the
00:04:40time of fubara, the APC structure also tried to support
00:04:43fubara, president eventually overroll them, so
00:04:47people are wondering what is really the nature, and it's not just
00:04:51about delivering that he has moved
00:04:54of away uh, by the last count he say about 10 senators under
00:04:58that you that uh the rainbow coalition
00:05:02and -
00:05:03of moved away from not just going gone beyond river states to other
00:05:06states, gombe, kwara
00:05:09and the rest
00:05:11of of them, so is he trying now
00:05:12to mimic? uh what Tim would
00:05:15did as the godfather of legos politics where he used Legos as
00:05:19pedestal and extended his control to most
00:05:23of virtually all the southwest states including even kwara
00:05:27and to a certain extent cogistate is that what he was trying to do
00:05:31so is also for the governors is about the diminition their
00:05:35own influence so when we talk about competing centers of
00:05:38power the governors themselves are supposed to be one the
00:05:42keys of power in terms of access to the president,
00:05:46and wick does not hide it, especially if you look at his media
00:05:49pall, how he was talking about how he delivered, how the
00:05:53g5 delivered,
00:05:56help president to win, which means that if second
00:06:00term in office, who takes the credit and what will be
00:06:04the implications in terms of access to power, access to the
00:06:07presidency, that is the you have the locals of power, and then you
00:06:11have various of power that to
00:06:14define, and they are often stratified, so
00:06:17it's about competing for influence, not
00:06:21just about, it's not about president, and the president has
00:06:25allowed things that ordinarily, many
00:06:29people said will be impossible under what we call the laws of
00:06:32power, he's like a bride, isn't he, our
00:06:36president, buse he's
00:06:38enjoying, is it, it feels like with the...
00:06:42governors, he's at the helm of it, they want him to come back
00:06:46right, and then he has wik on this side who wants him to come back as well,
00:06:50so if they are both fighting, what they'l be calling for will be accessed to
00:06:53him, yeah, so he's like the bride in this, but there's a danger in it, there is
00:06:57danger, the danger there is that if you allow one
00:07:01center, say for example, even if outside the
00:07:04rivers and to some extent
00:07:08FCT, if you push for example that the other,
00:07:12other states where the APC governors are and that you rely on
00:07:16wiki to deliver that state, the governors will work across
00:07:20proposes and we have seen it in several states where
00:07:24people, people who lose nomination
00:07:28do anti-party and ensure that whoever was nominated will not
00:07:31win, so that's a big danger for tinuble that well who takes
00:07:35credit if he is
00:07:38re-elected and what will be the implications the
00:07:42growing influence as it is seen, there are also people who believe that
00:07:46well, we don't really know President
00:07:49Tinubo's thoughts about weak until he secure
00:07:52secondary
00:07:53term, but
00:07:57because right now he presents himself as the strong man, not just of
00:08:01reverse politics, so it is important for him to put project
00:08:05himself as not just being limited to river state and
00:08:08defc, well he won the the the
00:08:12the... that were conducted in FCT and in Rivers, it
00:08:15was, by his loyalist, so in that sense, he
00:08:19will say he was the strong man, but then you are only
00:08:23as strong as the political cover provided
00:08:27to you by the man at the center, do you ever do you see the president taking
00:08:30sides with the governors on this one? well, it
00:08:34is, it's like - the devil and d blue sea,
00:08:38yes, you cannot, as far as my own
00:08:42personal... because sorry to catch because you did mention before that in many
00:08:45many and i saw this happen in river state where it
00:08:49was clear we had mr entawe professor he was
00:08:53here and he said no no no the leadership the
00:08:56party is the governor yeah they got in they did
00:09:00everything at that time to show that look we support our
00:09:04governor but the president remember what the what
00:09:08remember i want to use the right word the president overturned
00:09:12just
00:09:14do you see the president doing the same thing now? i think that will be a dangerous
00:09:18scheme,
00:09:19you i remember that time the president was quoted, one of his spokes people was quoted
00:09:23as saying well um is
00:09:27the governor of legal state doesn't mean that he was the leader the
00:09:31party, he was the leader over, because the leader the party,
00:09:35yes, but we don't know, some people are saying that okay,
00:09:38whatever agreement existed between them and nobody really. goes
00:09:42to extent to which the G5 delivered, perhaps
00:09:46there are other agreements and grave, grave vine is our wash with different
00:09:50theories and hypothesis on the relationship between them, as
00:09:54I said, this will become clearer if tin gets a second
00:09:57term, but as far as we know there are certain laws of
00:10:01power that nobody can violate and remain in power
00:10:05that's you know we can
00:10:08you violence that with them with impunity and nothing has happened
00:10:12so we don't. "know the relationship, but I think that you
00:10:15cannot go to a state control by an
00:10:18APC and expect that weeker will have
00:10:22more influence there, because..." the rainbow
00:10:25coalition, the way some people will say
00:10:28it is that it tries to mobilize support, say for example you're in
00:10:31state b and you're APC governor and then I can mobilize
00:10:35support of PDP, other parties and then
00:10:39in contestation with you,
00:10:41you to diminish your influence so that if eventually he
00:10:45triumphs, because I think that's that's the problem and I i don't
00:10:49think many people understand why the governors are very upset about this coalition thing, because
00:10:53we can may have interests. that are different from the interests
00:10:57the APC in the state, so if he's allowed
00:11:00and with the backing the president able to move rainbow
00:11:04coalition into your state, and people are even
00:11:07saying, what if what if his interests are different from the interest the governor, which means that he
00:11:11will diminish you, he's already even if it is he delivers the
00:11:15president or the president wins that state, now
00:11:19he is responsible for delivering that it becomes an argument, and
00:11:23people are also questioning. while is
00:11:26wiki so concerned about maintaining political
00:11:29structure after being governor
00:11:33is he trying to play tinubu of legos to become
00:11:37so what
00:11:38I'm saying having ambitions
00:11:41no no there's nothing wrong but as you have
00:11:42your own ambition to so you you mobilize a contrarian forces also
00:11:46to make sure that you know your ambition does not diminish them
00:11:50his principal did the same thing that's
00:11:52what i'm saying would did the same thing. but people did not
00:11:56fold your arms, you okay, know,
00:11:57yes, they fought him, so they also fighting him, so otherwise
00:12:01ordinarily, most people, when you move governors, when you finish
00:12:05exhaust your second time, you try to go and retire in the senate or look for the
00:12:09mystery position and from there, gradually gl, are you
00:12:13saying, are you saying, i would not allow you do
00:12:17this, are you saying that our senators are retiring,
00:12:21many the governors retired retirement.
00:12:25place to gradually get a ministerial position and
00:12:28gradually slide, glide into
00:12:31anonymity, people forget ever existed, that's the
00:12:34tendency, not in in state they try to
00:12:38do it with then
00:12:40or you know this thing, where somebody tried, i think
00:12:44a point when he set up the PPA after being governor,
00:12:48where you try to create a structure so that you control continue
00:12:52to pull the strings and maybe replay what happened
00:12:55in lagos? i think there has been a fascination by
00:12:59some political actors about how to was able
00:13:03to retain control the southwest, substantial control the
00:13:07southwest, many years after he had become the governor, so for
00:13:11people who are really enamored by power and is apportinances,
00:13:14they they keep on trying to see if they could is possible to replicate the
00:13:18tinoble model, mean
00:13:22from the i you're from academia right,
00:13:26so I have tendency to want to get to the bottom of
00:13:30things, yes sir, because we cannot continue uh
00:13:33to, there's a saying in my place, the say for he that once had lost his
00:13:37way, yeah, the further he dot go, the further he dot stay, yeah, so
00:13:41let's go back, the concept of rainbow
00:13:45coalition, and I've asked this question before, I ask professor denkalo, he said it's a
00:13:48criminal enterprise as far as he concerned, he's going to do progressive thinking, that's for
00:13:52him, but the idea of...
00:13:56rainbow coalition, does is this, is this an era where we are now
00:13:59legitimizing anti-party activities, uh,
00:14:03is there a shift from just party uh,
00:14:07party structures to now progressive thinkers regardless of party
00:14:11structures coming together, is this
00:14:13an aberation or is this progressive thought in your view? well, label
00:14:17is level, you can call yourself progressive, even
00:14:21just like people uh, north korea calls
00:14:25democratic republic of Korea, so label we
00:14:29just go beyond the political levels, but what I think is not actually
00:14:33very factual to say that it
00:14:35has not existed, even
00:14:37in the first republic you have
00:14:40sometimes especially opposition parties or those
00:14:44wanting to get power,
00:14:47you know come together, you have progressive
00:14:50opga, you have a PPA, you have
00:14:54several. alliances that have been tried, even the
00:14:56NCNC,
00:14:58you know, they have the opga, NNA alliance and the rest them, so it
00:15:02is not what is unique about this is that somebody
00:15:05who obviously says he belongs to another party,
00:15:09PDP, that all he wants to do is to deliver the
00:15:12president, but he never promised the president, he never promised
00:15:16anyone that he will deliver senators or
00:15:19governors, so in river state kingsley chinder had
00:15:23already becoming anointed. and he's a loyalist of
00:15:27weak when APC itself also has his own politic
00:15:30candidate, so that creates a lot of problems and I think you
00:15:34know people say tin is master strategist. "how are you
00:15:38sure he's not playing this game because we don't even know sometimes what the politicians
00:15:42do, but I think somehow something will go will
00:15:45given, something, something has to give, something may give, all right, we'll
00:15:49still talk about the coalition and the rainbow
00:15:53coalition, the rainbow coalitions, and
00:15:56the the the the type of political error we are entering
00:15:59into with the political minds that we have and the political class that we
00:16:03are dealing with, so
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00:16:39news.
00:16:59to the concept, you think quite answer my question before went on the break, is this progressive thought
00:17:03in your view or is this regression? is this
00:17:06aberration? trying to uh
00:17:09normalize, are we normalizing the bazar? no, i
00:17:13answered it, i say progress, you said it's not new, the concept of
00:17:16being progressive or being a reactionary is just
00:17:20level, so you can you remember when tinubu and the rest
00:17:24them were in no position, they appropriated the you know monica
00:17:28of a progressive, the were the progressives, so i also told you
00:17:32that in northern north korea where many people
00:17:35believe is is... very dictatorial is democratic republic
00:17:39of Korea, so it's we go beyond the level to the
00:17:42practices, we are going to see what I i don't see any
00:17:46principle that is driving the conserversation
00:17:49of so-called rainbow, is just about control of
00:17:53inference about self preservation, self preservation in the
00:17:57sense that we said himself that if he
00:18:01if doesn't win the opposition will come after him, that is one way to look
00:18:05at it, another way to look it is this thing. about centers of power,
00:18:09there are competing centers and we use the word competing,
00:18:12wik has set up hself as a center, an independent center of
00:18:16power that is answerable onto the president, and then you have the
00:18:20governors, you have the progressive governors forum, you and
00:18:24that is supposed to be the apex in terms of things about
00:18:28the party, now who has the ears the president, that is the
00:18:32issue at stake, he can have both, well our
00:18:35bride, Yeah, I think yes for
00:18:39him, he will feel good about it, the idea that everybody is
00:18:42remember, the danger is there, all the political parties at that
00:18:46time,
00:18:47you know, um, nominated Abacha
00:18:51as their own presidential candidate, so it's it's also know
00:18:55when you are being humored, when no when
00:18:57you know uh psychopants are everywhere and know when people
00:19:01are using you as venir for their own
00:19:04intra-elite struggles, for their own ambitions. you didn't mention that the
00:19:08this president of ours is master
00:19:11strategist, whatever the veneers they are
00:19:15creating or whatever games they're playing, ultimately he is secured in
00:19:18his seat, which may be his ultimate goal in the end, yeah to be secured in that
00:19:22seat, so regardless of what you're doing, does it affect how I am comfortable
00:19:26here, no it doesn't, so
00:19:28you you can go, it can affect, so that's what I wanted to go to, is there something the president should be
00:19:32worried about, is there a way this bickering can affect him, if for
00:19:36example let's say for example the president wants to make it
00:19:39clear that I'm in this camp, I don't, I
00:19:43don't see him say doing that, I see him playing this game
00:19:47of trying, trying not silence, trying to,
00:19:50you know, like a wick himself say
00:19:53in India,
00:19:53you give one side, give one side, so that's probably what you would
00:19:57do, if he comes out to see one side, there is decisive victory,
00:20:01because somehow wik has come up with this persona of somebody who can
00:20:04deliver, a political muslim man who knows how... muscle his way to
00:20:08you deliver and if now say
00:20:11okay, i'm for governors, you are, you are
00:20:15done, well, for as long as he remains in that cabinet, he may give
00:20:19you superficial alligance, and if
00:20:22things don't go well in in terms of your relation,
00:20:26you come around and say the day they remove marginalized me was the day the whole thing
00:20:30started, and so will also be the narrative the governors, so
00:20:34if the governors don't feel that they are properly,
00:20:37integrated, properly taken that they are in charge their own
00:20:41enclaves, their own states and something doesn't
00:20:45go as planned, politics is a complex game, some them may
00:20:49play antipathy. activities then they will say, well he
00:20:53chose wiike over us, let wike deliver
00:20:56him, i don't,
00:20:58i don't know how, so it's it's good to be a good bride, it's good to be a
00:21:02bride, but
00:21:02you can los, you can lose both
00:21:05suuters, terrible, and then don't
00:21:09forget that the opposition elements are trying to also
00:21:12seam where the you know how they could tap into
00:21:16that whole situation and profit from it, so if it is going
00:21:20to you find a way to if you can get the
00:21:24support of one group or succently very
00:21:27tactically support one group against
00:21:30yother is our is our political landscape
00:21:34changing in your view from academia if you're taking a look at who we are
00:21:38right now as a country and and how we do
00:21:41politics with this political class that we deal with,
00:21:45i've never metsed words when i say we have probably
00:21:49the most irresponsible. political class i've ever
00:21:51seen anywhere in the world, class that cares only about itself and not about any the
00:21:55people beneath it and does nothing, nothing at all to uplift the people that are
00:21:59beneath them, but you may disagree with me, i agree, i'm not
00:22:02disag, it has always been the same, it has always been the same, but i think it's time to start
00:22:06saying it, people need to understand that this is what we're dealing with, now with
00:22:10the political class that we have and the landscape that we have, the weekak factor, the
00:22:14new style of politics, the godfatherism, the the master
00:22:18strategist president that we have right now. It's a different country from when
00:22:21Bukhari was in governance, what do you think is going to
00:22:25happen if he wins the next election, if president
00:22:29comes back and finishes for four more years, what happens in
00:22:33your mind to our political landscape, what kind of country do you see us having
00:22:36then? well, I wouldn't want to say if he wins, but I can tell
00:22:40you in, first of all, there are group dynamics in
00:22:43politics, politics drives on mobilizing various
00:22:46identities, so all people that are saying, let's stop technique
00:22:50identity are not being realistic even across the world
00:22:54you mobilize, that's why you talk about blue workers
00:22:57uh hispanic votes, black votes, white, you have your
00:23:01own electoral geography and that still happens here,
00:23:05politics essentially is driven by emotions anywhere,
00:23:09what i see is what are the fear factors, because first of all you
00:23:13play up the fear factors about your opponent in terms of political
00:23:17strategy and then this is what you offer. to cousion the
00:23:21fear factors, there are several fear factors that tinubu himself will
00:23:25have to face, one of which is as much as they are
00:23:29running towards in this fear of one man rumor and
00:23:31dictatorship, there is also the rumor that they are
00:23:35spreading in some inter, social media that the whole
00:23:39idea is that tinubu after tinubu he wants to hand
00:23:43over to wike, which may be a strategy to
00:23:47play up the fear factor in the north. and then
00:23:51also they are also saying, look, if he wins, that's when he will teach you
00:23:54people, for those of us who are already accusing him of you
00:23:58urbanizing the government, the say if he wins he's going to do a, b,
00:24:02c, d, and that's not just him, anyone that is impower, that
00:24:06has been impower and seeking for re-election will
00:24:10always face that, so that's why the second time course,
00:24:14some people talk, he has advantage of incombency, but so
00:24:18has he also some the things. garbages are come with incumbency,
00:24:21especially the fear factors, the opposition would now have lot
00:24:25the fear factors, now just like about week growing like
00:24:29this, and if you listen to some the internet chatrooms
00:24:33that he's he's dealing with them, meaning now they
00:24:36are trying to play up him against the nots, he's dealing with them
00:24:40after he has finished his handing over to wiken, so that becomes fear
00:24:44factor, and these are the kind of one the drivers you're likely to
00:24:48see in this election, is this going to
00:24:50be? when i think about
00:24:542027, think i'm more scared of 2027 than was of
00:24:582023? that's why politics is an art the possible, the say
00:25:02out the is an possible, you can't if we can't take the heat, don't come into the kitchen, is
00:25:06a contact sport, if you don't want that to be dated, stay away from
00:25:09it, we are opposition in in Nigeria,
00:25:13yeah, the opposition parties, are they are they
00:25:17truly play, we have lot of political parties. yeah, which is
00:25:21interesting
00:25:21to me because we always end up hearing about just hearing about four or five so many
00:25:25so I wonder what the others do do, yeah, and then the ones that
00:25:29you know do speak up, very
00:25:31personality focused, yeah,
00:25:35mod slinging, yeah, as opposed to issue based
00:25:38criticism, uh, catch phrases and things that will trend
00:25:42online, maybe it's a, maybe it's just them adjusting to the
00:25:46reality of our country and our world, but do we have the opposition?
00:25:51that can stand up to in
00:25:542027, should he be afraid at all? is
00:25:58there anyone that can take that seat from him? i can tell you one thing, no matter
00:26:02there is... uh, you know, um, no matter how much you
00:26:05plan in terms of strategy, there will may be
00:26:09always one variable that you did not take into
00:26:12consideration, which will come up and become a game
00:26:16changer, when Russia, when Russia was getting into
00:26:19Ukraine, they never imagine it will last more than three
00:26:23weeks, so there is always something, and it's still a long
00:26:27time, three months is, six months is a long time in
00:26:30politics, there are so many... factor so many things
00:26:34that potentially you know couls
00:26:37a threats, but as I say, if the elections we are
00:26:41conducted today, that's the way we speak today, we can't talk about
00:26:44tomorrow, then the opposition to the extent that they are
00:26:47fragmented, you have
00:26:51a, it will become more equilion for them, however even
00:26:55if they don't mean what they are, you this idea of trying to
00:26:58present a common front, that is a...
00:27:02strategy, it might be unsettling the president that if it happens,
00:27:05you know, you keep trying to predict them, look at uh, people be
00:27:09going to minder presidential unveiling of his
00:27:13presidential campaign, so I'm sure the strategist
00:27:17around the president to spent several nights
00:27:20trying to trying to deconstruct, what does that mean, apart from
00:27:24that, there's actually story I just saw bukhari
00:27:28went to visit,
00:27:32what is going on, this might be nothing, it might be nothing, it might be
00:27:36just sending you on, so we don't
00:27:40know, but that's why it is politics and uh,
00:27:44nobody shows their hands, i personally, doubt if votes
00:27:48counts, i sometimes people joke, what
00:27:52of if two days to the election they they declare one person
00:27:55elected and say go to court, what are you going to do, but to the extent that
00:27:59they are putting so much energy in this, cases is all my
00:28:03life to deliver tinubu. APC governor say uh, it must be
00:28:07Tinobu or the heaven will break. It shows
00:28:11perhaps that they are taking this so serious that
00:28:14they believe that votes will counts and that becomes something one the
00:28:18unintended positive consequences the
00:28:21whole the whole situation,
00:28:24because as we as we're wrapping up, buse that's absolutely
00:28:27correct, if votes don't count, what's all the noise
00:28:30about? taking it so serious, yeah, when
00:28:34they could, from what we know, you know, we've seen
00:28:38somebody who came for to become first, so why don't you, you
00:28:42know, I like
00:28:42the way you put it, one the unintended positive consequences of all of this
00:28:46drama, so to the Nigerian, yes, vote, that they are
00:28:50thinking, that's they're worried about your vote, so come out and
00:28:53vote, so you better start getting rid, otherwise
00:28:57from what we hear from what people say about the
00:28:59judiciary, on the day the election before the whole
00:29:03thing is conducted, I declare you the
00:29:05winner, if you go to the streets, the
00:29:09police will catch you, so the only thing you do is to go to court,
00:30:43i cannot believe it,
00:30:45she's two world records in one
00:30:49night and she makes