Original Broadcaster Captioning (Enhanced). Treat it as a searchable index of what was broadcast, not a quotation record.
00:00:01RELATIONS COMMITTEE EXAMINES THE U.S. RESPONSE TO GLOBAL SCAM
00:00:03OPERATIONS TARGETING AMERICANS
00:00:05AS INTERNATIONAL FRAUD NETWORKS
00:00:08REPORTED MORE THAN $1 TRILLION
00:00:10IN LOSSES WORLDWIDE. LAST YEAR.
00:00:12OVER ON C-SPAN, TWO MEMBERS OF THE SENATE GATHER AT 10 A.M. TO
00:00:16VOTE ON 74 OF PRESIDENT TRUMP'S
00:00:18JUDICIAL AND EXECUTIVE NOMINATIONS, INCLUDING KEY ROLES
00:00:22AT FEMA, TSA, THE WHITE HOUSE
00:00:23BUDGET OFFICE, AND THE NATIONAL
00:00:27ARCHIVES. THEN, C-SPAN 3 AT 8
00:00:29A.M. HAS NASA ASTRONAUTS JESSICA
00:00:31MEIR AND ANIL MENON STEPPING
00:00:34OUTSIDE THE INTERNATIONAL SPACE STATION FOR A SPACEWALK TO
00:00:37PREPARE FOR THE INSTALLATION OF A NEW ROLL-OUT SOLAR ARRAY, A
00:00:41MAJOR UPGRADE THAT WILL INCREASE THE STATION'S POWER, CAPACITY
00:00:44AND SUPPORT FUTURE SCIENTIFIC
00:00:47MISSIONS. YOU CAN ALSO WATCH LIVE COVERAGE OF THESE EVENTS ON
00:00:50C-SPAN NOW, OUR FREE MOBILE APP,
00:00:54AND ONLINE AT C-SPAN .ORG.
00:00:58>> WE'RE JOINED NOW BY SETH
00:01:03JONES. HE IS PRESIDENT OF DEFENSE AND SECURITY DEPARTMENT AT THE CENTER FOR STRATEGIC AND
00:01:05INTERNATIONAL STUDIES. SETH, WELCOME TO THE PROGRAM. >> IT'S GREAT TO BE ON. THANKS FOR HAVING ME.
00:01:09>> SO A LOT TO TALK ABOUT. WE'LL
00:01:10START WITH IRAN. WHAT'S YOUR ASSESSMENT OF THE WAR IN IRAQ RIGHT NOW?
00:01:14>> WELL, I THINK THE REALITY IS
00:01:17THAT THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ IS NOT
00:01:21OPEN AND THAT THE IRANIANS HAVE NOT HANDED OVER THE ENRICHED
00:01:24URANIUM THAT THEY HAVE. AND IT
00:01:26LOOKS LIKE, BASED ON OUR SATELLITE IMAGERY ANALYSIS, THAT
00:01:30THEY CONTINUE TO BE ACTIVE AROUND AREAS LIKE PICKAXE
00:01:33MOUNTAIN, WHERE THERE IS LIKELY SOME ENRICHED URANIUM
00:01:37UNDERNEATH. SO TWO BIG AREAS TO
00:01:39WATCH IS WHETHER THERE IS ANY
00:01:44KIND OF AGREEMENT DOWN THE ROAD. ON IRAN'S NUCLEAR PROGRAM, AND
00:01:47WHETHER THE STRAITS OPEN. THERE ARE DISCUSSIONS RIGHT NOW
00:01:50BETWEEN THE IRANIANS AND OMAN ON SOME KIND OF A POTENTIAL TOLL
00:01:54SHARING. UH, BUT I THINK, UH,
00:01:56YOU KNOW, I WOULD SAY AT THIS
00:01:59POINT, IT'S NOT LIKELY THAT WE'RE NEAR A DEAL THAT IS
00:02:02LIKELY TO STICK RIGHT NOW. SO I
00:02:03THINK THE STATES, THE STRAIT
00:02:07REMAINS LARGELY, UH, I WOULD
00:02:08SAY, PARTIALLY OPEN WITH A TAX.
00:02:12UM, POTENTIALLY INCREASING AND DECREASING ON A DAILY BASIS.
00:02:15>> DO YOU THINK THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ WILL EVER GO BACK TO
00:02:17BEING FULLY OPEN, LIKE IT WAS BEFORE THE WAR?
00:02:20>> YEAH, I THINK SO. I MEAN, THE QUESTION IS, WHAT, WHAT IS, YOU
00:02:23KNOW, WHAT'S THE U.S. AND THE
00:02:26BROADER GULF APPROACH TO DEALING WITH THE IRANIANS? I THINK
00:02:30EVENTUALLY IT'S IT WILL LIKELY GO BACK. UH, BUT I IT'S IT'S
00:02:34UNLIKELY, I THINK, IN THE SHORT
00:02:35TERM, TO GO BACK TO ANY KIND OF
00:02:38A COMPLETELY OPEN STRAIT. THE THE IRANIANS HAVE REALLY USED
00:02:42THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ RIGHT NOW FOR LEVERAGE. AND I THINK THEY'RE GOING TO DO IT FOR THE
00:02:46AT LEAST THE SHORT, SHORT TERM. >> THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION HAS
00:02:49SAID THAT THIS ROUND OF TALKS
00:02:51WITH IRAN IS THEIR, QUOTE, LAST
00:02:56CHANCE. SO WHAT HAPPENS MILITARILY IF THESE TALKS COLLAPSE?
00:02:59>> WELL, I THINK THERE ARE A COUPLE OF OPTIONS. ONE IS WHAT
00:03:02WE'VE ALREADY SEEN IS THE STATUS QUO, IS THAT THE U.S. THREATENS
00:03:06A BIG INCREASE IN STRIKES AND
00:03:08THEN BACKS DOWN, OR THE U.S. DOES CONDUCT SOME LIMITED STRIKES. BUT THAT WE CONTINUE IN
00:03:12THIS SORT OF STATUS QUO. THAT'S
00:03:16ONE. A SECOND IS A REALLY
00:03:18SERIOUS INCREASE IN, U.S.
00:03:21MILITARY ACTION. I KNOW THERE'S BEEN AN EFFORT BY THE WHITE
00:03:24HOUSE TO PULL TOGETHER A RANGE OF GULF STATES INTO A COALITION.
00:03:28THAT. AND THE PRESIDENT HAS HAS
00:03:32SOME OPTIONS FROM U.S. CENTRAL COMMAND AND THE JOINT STAFF IN THE PENTAGON FOR AN AIR OPTION
00:03:36TO OPEN UP THE STRAIT FOR AN AIR
00:03:39PLUS A NAVAL OPTION. SO INCLUDING NAVAL SHIPS IN THAT TO
00:03:42OPEN UP THE STRAIT, AND THEN POTENTIALLY WOULD BE THE MOST
00:03:45RISKY IN AIR PLUS NAVAL PLUS GROUND OPTION. SO PUTTING GROUND
00:03:49TROOPS IN SOME OF THE ISLANDS IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ, POTENTIALLY IN THE ON THE
00:03:53IRANIAN COASTLINE, UH, THAT WOULD OBVIOUSLY BE RISKY, BUT I
00:03:57THINK THAT IS THAT IS ANOTHER
00:03:59ALTERNATIVE. UH, IF WE CONTINUE
00:04:01ALONG THE LINES RIGHT NOW.
00:04:03>> SO WHY HASN'T THAT HAPPENED? AND SETTING ASIDE GROUND TROOPS,
00:04:07BUT THE AIR IN THE NAVAL, WHY
00:04:10HAVEN'T WE DONE THAT YET?
00:04:12>> WELL, THE THE PRUSSIAN, UH,
00:04:15STRATEGIST AND GENERAL CARL VON
00:04:18CLAUSEWITZ TALKS ABOUT WAR AS A CONTINUATION OF POLITICS BY
00:04:21OTHER MEANS. SO I THINK THE CHALLENGE RIGHT NOW FOR, FOR
00:04:25SOME U.S. POLICYMAKERS, AND I THINK THE PRESIDENT AND A RANGE
00:04:28OF HIS ADVISORS. MARCO RUBIO, PETE HEGSETH, AND OTHERS, UH,
00:04:31IT'S THE POLITICAL COMPONENT OF
00:04:34THAT THAT I THINK RAISES
00:04:36CONCERNS THE U.S. COULD CONDUCT
00:04:39ACTIONS, UH, AIR AND NAVAL ACTIONS IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ.
00:04:43BUT THERE ARE RISKS INVOLVED. THERE ARE RISKS THAT THE
00:04:47IRANIANS EXPAND STRIKES OUTSIDE
00:04:49OF THE GULF. SO WE'VE ALREADY SEEN THEM CONDUCT ACTIONS IN EGYPT, FOR EXAMPLE. WE'VE SEEN
00:04:53THEM GO AFTER U.S. BASES IN JORDAN. SO THERE'S A RISK OF
00:04:56EXPANDING THE CONFLICT. UH,
00:04:58THERE'S ALSO A RISK IN CONTINUING HIGH GAS PRICES. AND
00:05:01THEN FINALLY, THERE'S A RISK IN AN ELECTION YEAR IN A WAR
00:05:05THAT'S NOT PARTICULARLY POPULAR IN THE PRESIDENT'S PARTY RIGHT
00:05:08NOW, EVEN AMONG SOME OF THE MAGA
00:05:10SUPPORTERS. SO I THINK THOSE ARE
00:05:13THE POLITICAL RISKS THAT HAVE, FOR THE MOMENT, WEIGHED AGAINST
00:05:17A BIG ESCALATION IN THE WAR. >> WELL, SPEAKING OF POLITICAL RISKS, THE WASHINGTON POST HAS
00:05:20THIS HEADLINE. IT SAYS TRUMP
00:05:23KEEPS MAKING THREATS. THE WORLD
00:05:25HAS STOPPED FLINCHING. AND I
00:05:28WONDER, POLITICALLY, IF THE THREATS THAT PRESIDENT TRUMP MAKES AGAINST IRAN SAYING, YOU
00:05:32KNOW, WE'RE GOING TO DO WE'RE GOING TO GO AFTER YOUR CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE. WE'RE GOING TO
00:05:36HAVE THE BIGGEST STRIKES SINCE
00:05:39WORLD WAR TWO AGAINST YOU POLITICALLY. HAS THAT BEEN
00:05:43WORKING IN THIS WAR? >> WELL, IT HASN'T BEEN WORKING
00:05:47AGAINST THE IRANIANS. I MEAN, THE IRANIANS, IT'S LET'S
00:05:50LET'S JUST FACE THE REALITY. THE IRANIANS HAVE FACED
00:05:52AGGRESSIVE SANCTIONS FOR YEARS,
00:05:56AND HAVE NOT BUDGED BY MULTIPLE
00:06:00DEMOCRATIC AND REPUBLICAN ADMINISTRATIONS. THEY'VE BEEN WILLING TO. AND THIS IS DEEPLY
00:06:04UNFORTUNATE. THEY'VE BEEN WILLING TO HAVE THEIR POPULATIONS SUFFER FROM THOSE
00:06:08SANCTIONS. SO I THINK THE THREAT
00:06:09OF ADDITIONAL STRIKES IN IRAN
00:06:15AND THE IMPACT ON THE ECONOMY, I DON'T THINK, WORRIES THE LEADERSHIP THAT MUCH. PLUS,
00:06:18WE'VE ALREADY SEEN FROM WHEN
00:06:22OPERATION EPIC FURY KICKED OFF EARLIER THIS YEAR, THAT THE IRANIANS WERE ABLE TO WITHSTAND
00:06:25U.S. STRIKES, DECAPITATION STRIKES THAT KILLED THE SUPREME
00:06:29LEADER. THEY REPLACED HIM, AND A RANGE OF THE ISLAMIC
00:06:32REVOLUTIONARY GUARD REPLACED THEM AS WELL. SO THE REGIME HAS
00:06:36CONTINUED TO SURVIVE DESPITE THE ATTACKS. AND I THINK THEY FEEL LIKE THEY CAN CONTINUE ALONG
00:06:39THOSE LINES.
00:06:42>> HOW HOW WORRIED SHOULD
00:06:44AMERICANS BE ABOUT OUR DEPLETED WEAPONS STOCKPILES? DOES THIS
00:06:47POSE A NATIONAL SECURITY THREAT
00:06:49TO US, OR IS THIS SOMETHING THAT
00:06:52THE DEFENSE INDUSTRIAL BASE CAN, UH, CAN WEATHER? >> THIS IS A REALLY GOOD
00:06:56QUESTION. AND I THINK WHAT'S IMPORTANT IS TO GET SPECIFIC ON
00:06:59WHAT TYPES OF MUNITIONS WE'RE
00:07:00TALKING ABOUT. SO THERE ARE PLENTY OF MUNITIONS THAT ARE,
00:07:04ARE NOT, UM, AT A LOW STOCKPILE
00:07:10LEVEL. SMALL DIAMETER BOMBS CALLED JOINT DIRECT ATTACK MUNITIONS. THEY CAN BE STRAPPED ON TO DUMB BOMBS. THEY GUIDE
00:07:14WEAPON SYSTEMS. UM, AND THEN THERE ARE A RANGE OF OTHER LONG
00:07:17RANGE STRIKE WEAPONS THAT THE US
00:07:20HASN'T USED. WHAT IS A PROBLEM
00:07:22ARE TWO TYPES. ONE IS DEFENSIVE MUNITIONS. SO THINK INTERCEPTORS
00:07:26THAT GO ON THAD'S OR, OR, OR
00:07:31PATRIOT AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS. THE US USES THEM THROUGHOUT THE
00:07:33GLOBE TO PROTECT ITS BASES IN
00:07:35PLACES LIKE JAPAN. BASES IN OKINAWA, YOKOSUKA, SOUTH OF
00:07:39TOKYO, AS WELL AS IN THE MIDDLE EAST. THOSE INTERCEPTORS ARE
00:07:42EXTREMELY LOW. THEY'RE ALSO LOW
00:07:44FOR PATRIOT SYSTEMS, AND THOSE SYSTEMS ARE ABSOLUTELY ESSENTIAL
00:07:48FOR BALLISTIC MISSILES, IN PARTICULAR, OF WHICH THE
00:07:51IRANIANS HAVE. THE RUSSIANS HAVE, THE CHINESE HAVE. SO THOSE
00:07:54ARE LOW. AND THEN, JUST BRIEFLY,
00:07:57THE U.S., UH, NUMBERS OF SOME OFFENSIVE MISSIONS, TOMAHAWK
00:08:00LAND ATTACK, CRUISE MISSILES,
00:08:03AND THEN, UH, THE JASSM EXTENDED
00:08:05RANGE, UH, THEY'VE BOTH BEEN USED EXTENSIVELY IN THE IRAN
00:08:08WAR. BOTH STOCKPILES ARE LOW. THE CHINESE, YOU CAN BET THE
00:08:11CHINESE ARE WATCHING THIS CLOSELY. >> CAN THEY BE REPLENISHED
00:08:15QUICKLY, OR IS THIS A PROBLEM?
00:08:20>> IT'S A PROBLEM BECAUSE THE THE TIMELINE FOR, UM, FOR
00:08:23PRODUCING MOST OF THESE MUNITIONS, MUNITIONS ARE BETWEEN
00:08:262 AND 3 YEARS. SO, UH, THAT
00:08:30CREATES. SO IF YOU, IF YOU START PRODUCTION, IF YOU INCREASE
00:08:33PRODUCTION TODAY, YOU'RE TALKING
00:08:36ABOUT A 2 TO 3 YEAR TIMELINE. THE INDUSTRY IS PUSHING THEM OUT
00:08:39NOW. AND WE'RE SEEING THEM COME
00:08:41OUT ON A, ON A MONTHLY BASIS.
00:08:44BUT YOU CAN'T FILL THESE, THESE GAPS QUICKLY.
00:08:48>> IF YOU'D LIKE TO TALK TO OUR GUESTS, SETH JONES OF CSIS, YOU CAN START CALLING IN. NOW. IF
00:08:51YOU'VE GOT A QUESTION ABOUT, UH, THE GLOBAL CONFLICTS THAT
00:08:54WE'RE DEALING WITH, IRAN, UKRAINE, IF YOU'VE GOT A QUESTION ON CHINA, YOU CAN
00:08:58CERTAINLY CALL ABOUT THAT AS
00:08:59WELL. REPUBLICANS ARE ON 202748
00:09:028001. DEMOCRATS 202748 8000. AND
00:09:08INDEPENDENCE. 202748 8002. UH ON
00:09:12THE RUSSIA-UKRAINE WAR, THE DATA IS SHOWING THAT RUSSIA HAS
00:09:16SUFFERED ABOUT 1.4 MILLION IN
00:09:19CASUALTIES. HOW LONG CAN RUSSIA
00:09:21HOLD OUT ON THIS WAR THERE? UM,
00:09:25NOT JUST THE CASUALTY RATE. THEIR ECONOMY. WHAT'S IT GOING
00:09:29TO TAKE TO BRING PUTIN TO THE
00:09:31TABLE? REALISTICALLY?
00:09:34>> WELL, THE I MEAN, YOU MENTIONED THE 1.4 MILLION
00:09:37CASUALTY CASUALTIES. THAT'S TOTAL KILLED, WOUNDED, AND THEN MISSING. THOSE ARE OUR NUMBERS
00:09:41FOR JULY. SO THOSE NUMBERS HAVE
00:09:43NOW INCREASED. UM, BATTLEFIELD
00:09:47KILLED IS APPROACHING 500,000. JUST TO BE CLEAR ON THE
00:09:51COMPARISON, THAT'S MORE THAN FOUR TIMES THE NUMBER OF ALL
00:09:54U.S. KILLED IN ALL WARS COMBINED
00:09:58SINCE WORLD WAR TWO. SO YOU TAKE
00:09:58VIETNAM, UH, PLUS KOREA, PLUS
00:10:02AFGHANISTAN, IRAQ, EVERYTHING ELSE BETWEEN WORLD WAR TWO
00:10:05TODAY, MULTIPLY IT BY FOUR. YOU
00:10:08STILL HAVEN'T GOTTEN TO THE TOTAL NUMBER OF RUSSIANS KILLED IN JUST FOUR AND A HALF YEARS
00:10:12SINCE THE WAR BEGAN. FULL SCALE
00:10:13WAR BEGAN IN FEBRUARY OF 2022.
00:10:17SO THE RUSSIANS ARE SUFFERING TREMENDOUSLY. THEY AREN'T TAKING
00:10:20TERRITORY. IN FACT, SEVERAL MONTHS THIS YEAR, THEY'VE LOST
00:10:23TERRITORY. I THINK, TO GET TO
00:10:25YOUR QUESTION, A LITTLE BIT LIKE OUR DISCUSSION OF IRAN, UM,
00:10:29WHERE THE SUPREME, BOTH THE PAST
00:10:32AND THE CURRENT SUPREME LEADER AND THE ISLAMIC REVOLUTIONARY GUARD DOES NOT SEEM TO CARE MUCH
00:10:37ABOUT THE SUFFERING OF ITS POPULATION. UH, VLADIMIR PUTIN
00:10:40IS IN A SIMILAR POSITION. HIS COUNTRY'S ECONOMY, UM, OUTSIDE
00:10:44OF THE OIL AND GAS SECTOR, IS IN
00:10:47REALLY DIFFICULT SHAPE. RUSSIA RANKS AMONG LEADING COUNTRIES,
00:10:50ALMOST DEAD, LAST IN ARTIFICIAL
00:10:51INTELLIGENCE, PRODUCTION AND
00:10:54MANUFACTURING. UM, AND, AND SO WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE CASUALTIES,
00:10:58THEY'RE COMING FROM, UH, PLACES
00:11:01LIKE SIBERIA, THEY'RE LIKE THE
00:11:03NORTH CAUCASUS, NOT FROM ELITE
00:11:06SONS OR DAUGHTERS IN SAINT PETERSBURG AND MOSCOW. SO I
00:11:08THINK AT THE END OF THE DAY, VLADIMIR PUTIN VIEWS HIS
00:11:12POPULATION, ESPECIALLY THESE TYPES OF INDIVIDUALS, AS
00:11:15EXPENDABLE. AND, AND I THINK HAS SHOWN AN INCLINATION TO CONTINUE
00:11:19TO FIGHT THIS WAR. SO I THINK HE
00:11:22CAN GO FOR A CHUNK OF TIME
00:11:25STILL, UH, AND I MEAN, IT'S DEEPLY UNFORTUNATE BECAUSE WHAT
00:11:28HE'S DOING TO HIS OWN COUNTRY.
00:11:30>> CHINA, IS THE ONLY COUNTRY
00:11:34THAT CAN REALLY PRESSURE RUSSIA INTO ENDING THIS WAR. FIRST. DO YOU AGREE WITH THAT STATEMENT?
00:11:37AND SECOND, IF YOU DO, DO YOU
00:11:41SEE ANY SCENARIO WHERE THAT WOULD HAPPEN?
00:11:43>> YEAH. WELL, I MEAN, ON THE
00:11:46ONE HAND, VLADIMIR PUTIN DOES
00:11:48HAVE PROBABLY SOME PRESSURE FROM WITHIN HIS OWN DOMESTIC
00:11:52POLITICAL SITUATION, PARTICULARLY FROM HIS POLITICAL RIGHT. BUT IN TERMS OF OF
00:11:56OUTSIDE COUNTRIES, THE CHINESE
00:11:58HAVE ESSENTIALLY BANKROLLED THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY AND THE
00:12:02INDUSTRIAL BASE. THE CHINESE ARE
00:12:04PROVIDING RUSSIA WITH A HUGE NUMBER OF COMPONENTS FOR MANY OF
00:12:08ITS WEAPONS SYSTEMS, FROM
00:12:10ELECTRONICS TO RADAR SYSTEMS, TO COMPONENTS THAT GO INTO RUSSIAN
00:12:14AIRCRAFT AND MISSILES, AND EVEN
00:12:16DRONES. UH, SO THE, THE CHINESE
00:12:20DO HAVE SIGNIFICANT LEVERAGE IN THIS WAR. I THINK WHAT THE
00:12:24CHINESE ALSO WANT TO MAKE SURE
00:12:25THEY PREVENT IS RUSSIA FROM
00:12:29LOSING ITS, THEIR CLOSEST GLOBAL
00:12:30ALLY. SO I THINK THERE'S SOME
00:12:34THERE'S A CAREFUL BALANCE FROM BEIJING. THEY DON'T WANT THE
00:12:36RUSSIANS TO LOSE. BUT THEY I
00:12:39THINK IN IN IN GENERAL WOULD
00:12:41LIKE TO SEE THIS WAR START TO, UM, WIND DOWN.
00:12:45>> UH, YOU'VE WRITTEN THAT
00:12:48CHINA'S SHIPBUILDING CAPACITY IS OVER 200 TIMES THAT OF THE
00:12:52U.S.. IS IT POSSIBLE FOR THE UNITED STATES TO CLOSE THAT GAP?
00:12:55AND IS IT IMPORTANT FOR THE U.S. TO CLOSE THE GAP?
00:12:58>> YEAH. SO THOSE NUMBERS
00:12:59INCLUDE BOTH COMMERCIAL AND MILITARY. THE UNITED STATES, AT
00:13:03ONE POINT, USED TO BE A BIG COMMERCIAL PRODUCER OF SHIPS.
00:13:06IT'S NOT REALLY ANYMORE. MOST OF THE SHIPS OR MANY OF THE
00:13:09SHIPS THAT THE U.S. BUILDS, ARE ONES OUT OF PLACES LIKE GROTON,
00:13:12CONNECTICUT. THOSE ARE SUBMARINES OR OUT OF BATH, MAINE, WHERE IT BUILDS ITS
00:13:16DESTROYERS. ARLEIGH BURKE CLASS
00:13:18DESTROYERS. UH, SO, YOU KNOW, THERE'S A LITTLE BIT OF APPLES
00:13:22AND ORANGES WHEN YOU COMPARE A BIG CHINESE COMMERCIAL PLUS
00:13:25MILITARY TARGET, UM, INDUSTRIAL
00:13:27BASE AND THE U.S., I STILL THINK, UH, A WAR OR DETERRENCE
00:13:31IN THE PACIFIC DOES REQUIRE
00:13:34SHIPS, BOTH SURFACE. AND THEN
00:13:37SUBSEA. SO UNDERSEA, WHETHER SUBMARINES OR WHAT WE CALL
00:13:40UNMANNED OR UNCREWED UNDERWATER VEHICLES, I THINK THERE IS A
00:13:43NEED FOR THE U.S. TO RAMP UP ITS
00:13:47SHIPBUILDING INDUSTRIAL BASE.
00:13:49UH, BOTH FOR SURFACE SHIPS AND
00:13:53UNDERSEA. BUT IT IS IT'S A SLOG RIGHT NOW. WORKFORCE SUPPLY
00:13:56CHAIN. THERE ARE A LOT OF CHALLENGES THAT NEED TO BE FIXED
00:13:59TO GET TO THAT STAGE.
00:14:02>> IF CHINA WERE TO TAKE MILITARY ACTION AGAINST TAIWAN,
00:14:06WHAT ARE THE OPTIONS FOR THE UNITED STATES? >> WELL, THE THE ISSUE WOULD
00:14:10PROBABLY BE WHAT TYPES OF
00:14:12ACTION? UM, THE CHINESE COULD CONDUCT. FOR EXAMPLE, AN
00:14:15AMPHIBIOUS INVASION OF AN ISLAND LIKE TAIWAN OR, OR ANOTHER
00:14:19PHILIPPINES, JAPAN. THEY COULD CONDUCT A BLOCKADE OR
00:14:22QUARANTINE, WHICH IS AN ACT OF WAR, PARTICULARLY A BLOCKADE. OR
00:14:25THEY COULD CONDUCT SORT OF WHAT WE CALL GRAY ZONE OR IRREGULAR
00:14:28OPERATIONS. SO DEPENDING ON WHAT TYPE OF OPERATION THE CHINESE,
00:14:32UM, WHAT'S.
00:14:34>> MOST LIKELY. >> I ACTUALLY THINK SOMETHING
00:14:37CLOSER TO A BLOCKADE. OKAY. SO IF THERE'S MORE LIKELY. >> IF THERE'S A BLOCKADE, WHAT
00:14:40DOES THE US DO? >> WELL, UH, THAT'S A, THAT'S A
00:14:43REALLY INTERESTING QUESTION. UH, THE, YOU KNOW, WHAT THE US DID
00:14:47DURING THE COLD WAR? AND IT'S A DIFFERENT SITUATION WHEN THE,
00:14:51UH, WHEN THE SOVIETS PREVENTED THE US FROM GETTING TO BERLIN
00:14:55WAS THEY BROKE THAT WHAT WAS
00:14:58ESSENTIALLY A BLOCKADE BY FLYING IN AIRCRAFT. SO THE US COULD USE
00:15:02COMMERCIAL SHIPS TO RUN THE
00:15:05BLOCKADE OR QUARANTINE THAT
00:15:07CHINA PROVIDED TO GET FOOD,
00:15:09FUEL, AND OTHER TYPES OF. AND EVEN AMMUNITION, ALTHOUGH THAT
00:15:13THAT WOULD THAT WOULD OBVIOUSLY,
00:15:15UH, MAKE THE CHINESE UNHAPPY TO
00:15:19TAIWAN. THE QUESTION IS, WOULD THE CHINESE SINK THOSE VESSELS?
00:15:22AND THEN DO WE GET AN ESCALATING
00:15:23SCENARIO WHERE WE GO UP TO WAR? I'VE PLAYED IN A FEW WAR GAMES,
00:15:27IN A BLOCKADE, IN QUARANTINE, AND SOMETIMES YOU ESCALATE UP TO
00:15:31CONVENTIONAL WAR. SO THERE ARE
00:15:34HUGE RISKS IN THAT. AND A LOT OF IT WOULD DEPEND ON HOW THOSE COUNTRIES OPERATE.
00:15:38>> LET'S TALK TO CALLERS. WE'LL START WITH DEBBIE IN MAINE ON
00:15:41THE REPUBLICAN LINE. HI, DEBBIE. >> HELLO. GOOD MORNING. GOOD
00:15:44MORNING. I LOVE YOUR GUEST. I
00:15:48LOVE YOU,. FIRST OF ALL, I JUST
00:15:50PUT A STRIP OUT, I UM, SUSAN
00:15:55COLLINS WAS THERE WHEN THEY
00:15:57LAUNCHED IT. UM, MY OPINION ON
00:16:00THE, UM, ON WAR. I SAY WE GO IN
00:16:03AND TAKE THEM OUT, THE IRANIAN. WELL, HOW DO YOU GO WITH THE
00:16:07IRGC? WHATEVER THE IRANIAN HELP.
00:16:11AND I THINK WE OUGHT TO PAY THE
00:16:13KURDS, GET THEM OUT OF IRAQ AND GET THEM ON KHARG ISLAND AND
00:16:17SHUT THAT
00:16:21>> SAY GO IN, DO YOU ARE YOU IN FAVOR OF GROUND TROOPS IN IRAN?
00:16:25>> NO. ABSOLUTELY NOT. OKAY. ABSOLUTELY NOT. >> YOU WANT TO PAY OTHER PEOPLE TO DO IT.
00:16:29>> THEY'VE GOT BRIDGES, THEY GOT ELECTRICAL. YOU KNOW, ALL
00:16:33THAT PRODUCTION, YOU KNOW, WE
00:16:34GOT TO STOP PUTIN FROM SENDING
00:16:38SHIPS TO IRAN. >> SO. SETH JONES YEAH.
00:16:41>> DEBBIE. SO, FIRST OF ALL, ON BATH, I HAVE BEEN THERE MANY
00:16:44TIMES. BATH IRON WORKS BUILDS,
00:16:47UH, THE U.S., UH, WORLD CLASS ARLEIGH BURKE CLASS DESTROYERS.
00:16:50UH, BUT, YOU KNOW, THAT'S ONE GOOD EXAMPLE. WE TALKED SHIPBUILDING, ONE GOOD EXAMPLE,
00:16:54THE COST OF LIVING FOR THOSE WELDERS, ELECTRICIANS, PIPE
00:16:58FITTERS AT A PLACE LIKE BATH
00:16:59IRON WORKS IS GROWN INCREASINGLY EXPENSIVE. SO I THINK US HAS GOT
00:17:03TO LOOK AT OPTIONS FOR INCREASING EDUCATION AT SOME OF
00:17:07THE, UH, YOU KNOW, LIKE VOCATIONAL SCHOOLS, BUT ALSO
00:17:11RAISING THE PAY SO THAT PEOPLE AT AREAS LIKE BATH CAN AFFORD TO
00:17:13LIVE IN AND AROUND AREAS LIKE COASTAL MAINE. UM, BUT I THINK
00:17:17IT'S, YOU KNOW, THE STUFF
00:17:19THAT'S DONE AT BATH IS, IS
00:17:22IMPORTANT ON IRAN. UM, I MEAN, I ACTUALLY THINK AT SOME POINT
00:17:25THAT'S PROBABLY WHERE WE'LL GET TO, UH, THAT THE US
00:17:28PRESIDENT IS GOING TO HAVE, UH,
00:17:32HAVE TO TAKE A RISK IN, UM,
00:17:34CONDUCTING ESCALATED MILITARY
00:17:38CAMPAIGN AGAINST THE IRANIANS. I THINK IT PROBABLY IS TOO RISKY
00:17:41TO PUT GROUND FORCES. I'M NOT SURE IT WILL ACTUALLY BE
00:17:44HELPFUL. SO I THINK WHAT IT WILL
00:17:46LIKELY INVOLVE IS SOME TYPE OF
00:17:50COMBINATION OF AIR AND NAVAL
00:17:53VESSELS TO, UM, TO OPEN UP THE
00:17:55STRAIT, TO INCREASE THE FLOW OF
00:17:59COMMERCE THROUGH THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ. THERE AREN'T WITHOUT
00:18:01RISKS. YOU COULD, YOU COULD GET
00:18:05U.S. AIRCRAFT OR ALLIED AIRCRAFT SHUT DOWN, UH, KNOCKED OUT OF
00:18:08THE SKIES. AND U.S. HAS ALREADY
00:18:11LOST 42/42 AIRCRAFT SINCE THE WAR BEGAN. AND YOU COULD GET NAVAL SHIPS, INCLUDING ONES
00:18:15BUILT OUT OF BATH, MAINE, UH,
00:18:17THAT GET HIT, INCLUDING THOSE ARLEIGH BURKE CLASS DESTROYERS. SO THERE ARE RISKS INVOLVED. I
00:18:22THINK WHAT'S ACTUALLY GOING TO BE VERY IMPORTANT AT THE END OF
00:18:24THE DAY, UH, IS TO BUILD A
00:18:27COALITION TO DO IT. BECAUSE I THINK THE LONGER THIS WAR
00:18:30PERSISTS, I THINK THERE WILL BE SUPPORT FROM A RANGE OF GULF
00:18:34COUNTRIES AND OTHER U.S. ALLIES TO JOIN A MISSION LIKE THIS. WE
00:18:38SAW THIS IN THE 1990 91 GULF WAR
00:18:42AGAINST IRAQ. AND SO I THINK THAT'S SORT OF THE DIRECTION WE'RE LIKELY TO GO DOWN.
00:18:44>> CAN THE KURDS DO THIS?
00:18:46>> WELL, THAT GETS INTO ANOTHER ISSUE, WHICH IS THE OVERTHROW OF
00:18:50THE, UH, OF THE REGIME. THAT'S
00:18:53WHERE THE THE KURDS CAN'T OPEN UP THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ. I DON'T THINK THEY CAN'T PLAY A
00:18:57MEANINGFUL ROLE THERE. BUT I
00:18:58THINK THE QUESTION, WHEN IT
00:19:02COMES TO THE KURDS AND OTHER OPPOSITION GROUPS IN IRAN IS,
00:19:04CAN, UH, CAN THE U.S. AND OTHER
00:19:08ORGANIZATIONS, THIS WOULD BE CIA, SPECIAL OPERATIONS FORCES,
00:19:12AID OPPOSITION GROUPS IN IRAN?
00:19:14YES. WILL THAT LEAD TO AN
00:19:17OVERTHROW OF THE GOVERNMENT? PROBABLY UNLIKELY. UH, I THINK
00:19:20THE SOCIAL ENGINEERING FROM THE OUTSIDE HAS BEEN DIFFICULT,
00:19:24PROBLEMATIC, EVEN WITH BOOTS ON THE GROUND. SO I WOULDN'T I
00:19:27WOULDN'T BANK ON A HIGH PROBABILITY THERE.
00:19:28>> WE GOT THIS FROM A GUY IN
00:19:32OKLAHOMA. HE SAYS IRAN HAS NO WATER, NO FOOD. INFLATION IS
00:19:36APPROACHING 400%, NO MONEY TO
00:19:38PAY THE IRGC AND POLICE, NO
00:19:41COMMERCE. THEIR MILITARY IS COMPLETELY ELIMINATED. ET
00:19:43CETERA. ET CETERA. WHAT IS KEEPING IRAN FROM COMPLETE
00:19:47COLLAPSE? >> UH, THERE ARE A COUPLE OF
00:19:49THINGS. ONE IS THE IRANIAN
00:19:52POPULATION DOES HAVE A, UH,
00:19:57ABILITY TO, UM, UH, TO TAKE SORT
00:19:59OF EXTRAORDINARY RISKS. AND
00:20:05IT'S BEEN FOR DECADES SUFFERING,
00:20:07NOT QUITE AT THESE LEVELS, BUT IT'S BEEN OSTRACIZED. UH, I
00:20:10THINK ONE OF THE THINGS THAT WE
00:20:12ARE SEEING, TO BE CLEAR, IS THAT
00:20:14BOTH THE RUSSIANS AND THE CHINESE HAVE GIVEN A LIFELINE TO
00:20:18THE IRANIAN ECONOMY. THEY'RE CONTINUING TO PROVIDE GOODS AND
00:20:22SERVICES. THE CHINESE ARE BUYING
00:20:25IRANIAN OIL. SO, UH, YOU KNOW, THERE ARE THEY DO HAVE ALLIES.
00:20:29THEY'RE PROVIDING HELP TO THE INDUSTRIAL BASE. SO IT'S A GOOD
00:20:33QUESTION. BUT I THINK WHAT WE'VE SEEN IS THE IRANIAN POPULATION
00:20:36HAS BEEN ABLE TO STOMACH, UH,
00:20:42EXTENSIVE SUFFERING. AND THE CHALLENGE RIGHT NOW IS THERE HAS BEEN A BIT OF A RALLY AROUND THE
00:20:44FLAG EFFECT IN IRAN, WHERE THE
00:20:47POPULATION, BECAUSE IT'S BEING TARGETED SO HEAVILY OVER THE
00:20:51COURSE OF 20 2026 BY THE
00:20:54ISRAELIS AND THE U.S., THE
00:20:59POPULATION OF IRAN HAS IN SOME WAYS EMBRACED THE REGIME FROM
00:21:03THE EXTERNAL THREAT. SO I THINK THOSE ARE A FEW OF THE FACTORS
00:21:04THAT ARE UH, THAT ARE THAT ARE
00:21:08PREVENTING THE REGIME FROM COLLAPSING RIGHT NOW. >> SHERRILL, OWINGS MILLS,
00:21:12MARYLAND. UH, SORRY, GO AHEAD.
00:21:15>> THAT'S RIGHT. DEMOCRAT. OKAY. HEY, LOOK, UM, I REMEMBER
00:21:19BACK WHEN, UH, 250 OF OUR MARINES WERE KILLED OVER THERE
00:21:23IN BEIRUT, LEBANON, AND RONALD REAGAN DIDN'T DO ANYTHING ABOUT
00:21:26THAT. BUT THIS IS WHAT I WANT TO
00:21:28ASK. I WANT TO ASK ABOUT THE
00:21:31JCPOA AND HOW IMPORTANT THAT
00:21:32DOCUMENT IS, BECAUSE I HEARD,
00:21:37ALEX, I THINK IT WAS.
00:21:47IN THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION THAT WANTED TO STAY IN THE JCPOA.
00:21:51SO CAN YOU TELL ME, HE TOLD
00:21:55DONALD TRUMP TO STAY IN THE IRAN DEAL. I WANT TO KNOW IF THAT WAS TRUE.
00:21:59AND IF THERE WERE ANY OTHER
00:22:02MEMBERS OF DONALD TRUMP'S CABINET BUT WANTED TO SAY --
00:22:06STAY IN THE JCPOA?
00:22:07GUEST: THERE WAS A PRETTY ROBUST
00:22:12DEBATE UP TO THE DECISION IN THE FIRST TRUMPET ADMINISTRATION TO
00:22:15WALK AWAY FROM THE NUCLEAR DEAL WITH IRAN.
00:22:21UNFORTUNATELY THE NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL MINUTES RIGHT
00:22:25NOW OF MEETINGS PROBABLY WON'T BE DECLASSIFIED FOR ANOTHER
00:22:28DECADE AND A HALF OR SO SO WE DON'T KNOW ALL THE POSITIONS IN
00:22:33THE SITUATION ROOM BECAUSE THEY
00:22:34ARE STILL CLASSIFIED BUT A LOOK SICK REX TILLERSON FOR EXAMPLE
00:22:38HAD SOME QUESTIONS ABOUT PULLING
00:22:40AWAY FROM THE JCPOA, OF THE SECRETARY OF STATE AT THE TIME.
00:22:45THE REALITY AT THIS POINT IS
00:22:49ONCE THE FIRST TRUMPET ADMINISTRATION WALKED AWAY FROM
00:22:51THAT JCPOA IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL IT
00:22:56BECAME DIFFICULT AFTER THAT AND
00:22:56STILL IS TODAY, THE BIDEN
00:23:00ADMINISTRATION COULDN'T GET IT DONE, THE TRUMPET ADMINISTRATION IS HAVING DIFFICULT TIMES GETTING IT DONE.
00:23:05PART OF THE REASON IS THAT THE
00:23:07IRANIAN POSITION IS THAT THE
00:23:12U.S. CHANGES PRESIDENTIAL ADMINISTRATION'S EVERY FOUR OR
00:23:15EIGHT YEARS SO ANY DEAL AS THEY
00:23:16HAVE SEEN ANY DEAL A NEW ADMINISTRATION COULD WALK AWAY
00:23:20FROM. SO WHY SHOULD WE TRUST A DEAL
00:23:24THAT THE U.S. HAS MADE IF ANOTHER ADMINISTRATION CAN TURN
00:23:27AND WALK AWAY. THAT IS THE PROBLEM WE HAVE
00:23:31RIGHT NOW WITH AGREEING TO A
00:23:35DEAL.
00:23:35THAT IS PARTLY WHY THE U.S.
00:23:39POSITION WAS LAST YEAR IN 2025 DURING THE NIGHT HAMMER WITHOUT
00:23:43A DEAL STRIKING TARGETS AS PART
00:23:46OF OPERATION MIDNIGHT HAMMER AND
00:23:48TO SET BACK OUR ANALYSIS, THE IRANIAN PROGRAMS PROBABLY SET BACK.
00:23:55THAT'S NOT A GREAT LONG-TERM SOLUTION EITHER.
00:23:58I THINK THE CHALLENGE WE'VE GOT
00:24:00IS IT'S BEEN HARD FOR ANY REPUBLICAN OR DEMOCRAT ADMINISTRATION TO GET A DEAL
00:24:04WITH IRAN IN THAT TIMELINE.
00:24:06HOST: IF IT'S GOING TO BE SO DIFFICULT TO GET A DEAL THAT
00:24:09WILL STICK, IS THE ONLY SOLUTION
00:24:13HERE MILITARY ACTION LIKE MIDNIGHT HAMMER SO EVERY SO
00:24:17OFTEN WE GO IN AND DESTROY IT AND SEND IT BACK A YEAR OR TWO
00:24:21AND THEN THEY START REBUILDING, WE GO IN MILITARILY AND DESTROY IT?
00:24:24GUEST: THAT IS AN OPTION.
00:24:27IF THERE IS NO DEAL AND NO REPUBLICAN OR DEMOCRAT
00:24:33ADMINISTRATION CAN GET THROUGH
00:24:34WITH INSPECTORS ON THE GROUND,
00:24:37TO VERIFY THAT THE IRANIANS ARE
00:24:41ABIDING BY THIS, IF THAT CANNOT
00:24:44HAPPEN AND THERE IS INTELLIGENCE FROM THE U.S. AND OTHERS THAT
00:24:48THE IRANIANS ARE CONTINUING A
00:24:50NUCLEAR PROGRAM, OR AT OTHER
00:24:55SITES. BUT I THINK YOU ARE LOOKING AT
00:24:59LIKELY THE STRATEGY FOR THE
00:25:03IRANIANS. EVERY SO OFTEN YOU SEE STRIKES.
00:25:06THE CHALLENGE WITHOUT WITH THE IRANIANS ARE GETTING SMARTER
00:25:10ABOUT WHERE THEY ARE PUTTING THEIR MATERIAL.
00:25:13SOME OF THE LOCATIONS IN PICKAX MOUNTAIN FOR EXAMPLE.
00:25:16YOU LOOK AT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THEN LOOK AT THE TUNNEL
00:25:20COMPLEXES YOU CANNOT SEE THEM ALL ON THE GROUND.
00:25:24SOME OF THOSE LARGE BOMBS
00:25:27DROPPED FROM A U.S. BOMBER MAY
00:25:30NOT BE ABLE TO PENETRATE THAT SO
00:25:34THE IRANIANS MAY TAKE SOME ACTION UNDERGROUND THAT MAKE IT
00:25:37EVEN DIFFICULT FOR ANOTHER OPERATION.
00:25:41HOST: FOR THE TWO YEARS THE
00:25:45JCPOA WAS IN EFFECT, THE PEOPLE IN FAVOR SAY IT WAS WORKING.
00:25:48THOSE WHO ARE AGAINST IT SAY IT WAS NOT WORKING. WHICH IS IT?
00:25:52DO YOU KNOW IF IT WAS WORKING FOR THOSE TWO YEARS AT THE U.S.
00:25:55AND IRAN WERE UNDER THAT AGREEMENT?
00:25:57GUEST: IT DOES APPEAR BASED ON
00:26:01WHAT THE INSPECTORS WERE ABLE TO ASSESS THAT IT DID HAVE A
00:26:03POSITIVE IMPACT IN SLOWING THE
00:26:08IRANIAN PROGRAM DOWN. BIG PICTURE THOUGH IT IS WORTH POINTING OUT THE IRANIANS HAVE
00:26:13HAD EITHER PLANS OR IN ACTUALITY
00:26:19OVER NUCLEAR PROGRAM SINCE THE REVOLUTIONARY REGIME BEGAN.
00:26:23REALLY SINCE THE EARLY 1980'S SO
00:26:26-- NUCLEAR WEAPONS ARE THE
00:26:29STRONGEST DETERRENT I THINK THE
00:26:34IRANIANS -- UKRAINIANS WISH THEY
00:26:35HADN'T GIVEN THEM UP AFTER THE COLLAPSE OF THE SOVIET UNION.
00:26:39HOST: IN THE NORTH KOREANS.
00:26:41GUEST: REGARDLESS OF ANY OF THIS
00:26:44THERE WILL BE DESIRE FOR NUCLEAR PROGRAM.
00:26:47HOST: ON THE INDEPENDENT LINE
00:26:51YOU ARE ON WITH SETH JONES.
00:26:52GUEST: -- CALLER: THANK YOU FOR
00:26:59TAKING MY CALL. ANY RELEASE ON THE INVESTIGATION
00:27:04OF THE LIVES LOST AND AS WE LEARN MORE ABOUT THAT TRAGEDY,
00:27:08HOW DO WE ENSURE THAT WE HOLD
00:27:10THOSE RESPONSIBLE ACCOUNTABLE WITHOUT ALLOWING THAT ONE SINGLE
00:27:13DEVASTATING EVENT TO DICTATE OUR
00:27:15BROADER STRATEGY ESPECIALLY FOR THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ.
00:27:20HOST: THE GIRLS SCHOOL IN IRAN.
00:27:24GUEST: THAT IS A GOOD QUESTION.
00:27:28I HAVE NOT SEEN AN UPDATE RECENTLY ON WHERE THAT INVESTIGATION STANDS.
00:27:32I DO THINK IT IS IMPORTANT.
00:27:33HAVING SERVED IN AFGHANISTAN, I
00:27:39WAS A CIVILIAN IN THE U.S. MILITARY IN U.S. SPECIAL
00:27:42OPERATIONS, THERE ARE, THERE
00:27:44HAVE BEEN A NUMBER OF CASES IN
00:27:48IRAQ AND OTHER LOCATIONS WHERE
00:27:50U.S. BOMBS HIT CIVILIAN TARGETS,
00:27:53A WEDDING OR OTHER LOCATIONS.
00:27:59TO CONDUCT STRIKES AGAINST CIVILIAN POPULATIONS AS A MATTER OF POLICY.
00:28:05SO I THINK IT IS IMPORTANT TO
00:28:07INVESTIGATE AND HOLD ACCOUNTABLE
00:28:11THOSE INVOLVED.
00:28:13IT WAS A PROBLEM OF INTELLIGENCE, WAS IT A PROBLEM
00:28:16OF EXECUTION, SO I DO THINK IT
00:28:21IS IMPORTANT THAT WE CONTINUE TO INVESTIGATE THAT. I HAVE NOT SEEN AN UPDATE
00:28:25RECENTLY ON WHERE THAT IS.
00:28:26HOST: TERRY NEXT FROM TENNESSEE
00:28:30ON THE LINE FOR REPUBLICANS.
00:28:34ARE YOU THERE? CALLER: YEAH I'M HERE.
00:28:37HOST: GO AHEAD.
00:28:41CALLER: WHAT ARE WE TALKING
00:28:44ABOUT TODAY.
00:28:46HOST: THE IRAN WAR, THE RUSH UKRAINE WAR.
00:28:51CALLER: THE WAY I SEE IT WE
00:28:54ALREADY STARTED OVER THERE.
00:28:58WE NEED TO TELL THE INNOCENT PEOPLE TO GET OUT OF THE WAY, GO
00:29:01OVER THERE AND WIPE THEM OUT.
00:29:05THAT'S THE WAY I SEE IT.
00:29:08HOST: THE CONCEPT OF PRESIDENT
00:29:12TRUMP SHOULD JUST FINISH THE JOB. WHAT DOES THAT MEAN
00:29:16STRATEGICALLY, WHAT IS THAT MEAN ON THE GROUND?
00:29:18CALLER: THE ANSWER TO THAT --
00:29:21GUEST: THE ANSWER THAT HINGES ON
00:29:25WHAT PEOPLE MEAN BY FINISH THE JOB.
00:29:28THERE REALLY I THINK AT THIS
00:29:30POINT PROBABLY TO BIG OBJECTIVES
00:29:32THAT THE U.S. FOR U.S. LEADERS.
00:29:37ONE IS OPENING UP THE STRAIT OF
00:29:38HORMUZ SO THAT THE U.S., SO THAT
00:29:42THERE CAN BE A FREE FLOW OF
00:29:43TRADE AND THAT FOR AMERICANS,
00:29:47GAS PRICES START TO COME DOWN.
00:29:50THEY ARE HIGH ACROSS THE U.S. RIGHT NOW. SO OPENING UP THE STREET IS ONE OBJECTIVE.
00:29:56AND TO IS THERE IS A CONTINUING
00:30:01EFFORT TO MAKE SURE THAT IRAN DOES NOT GET A NUCLEAR WEAPON.
00:30:06AND SO THERE ARE A RANGE OF DIFFERENT WAYS YOU CAN GET THERE.
00:30:09I THINK THE SECOND OPTION ON
00:30:11IRAN HAVING A NUCLEAR WEAPON IS
00:30:14A LITTLE BIT SOLVED IN THE SHORT TERM. IRAN'S CAPABILITIES HAVE BEEN
00:30:19DEGRADED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF YEARS. OUR ASSESSMENT ANYWAY.
00:30:24AND THAT BRINGS US BACK TO OPENING UP THE STRAIGHT.
00:30:29AND THERE I THINK YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT THERE IS NO DEAL, WE DO NOT HAVE ONE NOW.
00:30:34WE CAN GET A DEAL ON OPENING UP
00:30:36THE STRAIGHT, THE OMANI'S AND
00:30:40THE IRANIANS ARE DISCUSSING OPTIONS FOR BRINGING IN TANKERS
00:30:43ON THE IRANIAN SIDE, POTENTIALLY
00:30:47SHARING SOME TAXATION OF THOSE
00:30:50COMMERCIAL VESSELS.
00:30:52BUT SHARING SOME TAXES AND IF
00:30:57THAT DOESN'T STICK THAT I THINK YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT MILITARY
00:31:01OPTIONS.
00:31:02HOST: THE STATED GOALS IRAN WILL
00:31:06NEVER HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON. NEVER IS A LONG TIME SO HOW DO
00:31:10YOU MEASURE THE SUCCESS OF THAT,
00:31:13YOU CAN CERTAINLY DELAY IT AS YOU SAID.
00:31:15THEY WILL ALWAYS MOST LIKELY BE LOOKING FOR A NUCLEAR WEAPON REGARDLESS.
00:31:20GUEST: I THINK ONE HAS TO BE
00:31:23CAREFUL ABOUT PROMISING NEVER.
00:31:25I THINK WHAT YOU REALLY WANT IS
00:31:29TO INCREMENTALLY WEAKEN THEIR
00:31:34PROGRAM AND MAKE IT DIFFICULT
00:31:36FOR THEM TO BUILD NUCLEAR WEAPONS. THE PROBLEM AT THE END OF THE
00:31:41DAY AND IRAN THAT HAS NUCLEAR
00:31:45WEAPONS CAPABILITIES IS THAT IT DOES RAISE ADDITIONAL PROLIFERATION.
00:31:49THE SAUDI'S ARE INTERESTED IN COMMERCIAL NUCLEAR PROGRAM.
00:31:52WE SEE THE JAPANESE AND KOREAN
00:31:55LEADERS TALKING ABOUT NUCLEAR WEAPONS.
00:31:59SO THE WORRY IS IF IRAN GETS
00:32:00NUCLEAR WEAPONS, THE TURKS HAVE
00:32:03TALKED ABOUT A POTENTIAL NUCLEAR
00:32:06PROGRAM, THAT IS THE CONCERN YOU
00:32:09GET TO A POINT WHERE IRAN
00:32:11ACTUALLY HAS NUCLEAR WEAPONS A
00:32:16GROWING PROLIFERATION. I THINK YOU HAVE TO TAKE THIS IN
00:32:21INCREMENTS. DELAYING IRAN'S CAPABILITIES OVER TWO OR THREE OR FOUR YEARS.
00:32:25IT'S UNCLEAR WHETHER THE IRANIAN
00:32:29REGIME SURVIVES FIVE YEARS, 10 YEARS. THERE MAY BE OTHER VARIABLES THAT COME INTO PLAY.
00:32:32HOST: FOR OUR CALL HER ANGELA.
00:32:37THE BBC HAS THIS ARTICLE FROM
00:32:40LAST MONTH IN JULY SAYING WHAT WAS THEIR CRIME.
00:32:45THE BBC VISIT IRAN SCHOOL WHERE STRIKES KILLED 120 CHILDREN.
00:32:52HERE IS MARGARET CALLING FROM CALIFORNIA, DEMOCRAT.
00:32:54CALLER: THANK YOU.
00:32:58MY COMMENT IS PART OF PRESIDENT
00:33:02TRUMP'S LEGACY WILL BE THAT HE ALLOWED RUSSIA TO CONQUER
00:33:05UKRAINE AND MAKE IT PART OF RUSSIA.
00:33:08THIS WAR COULD HAVE BEEN FINISHED LONG AGO IF PRESIDENT
00:33:12TRUMP HAD GIVEN UKRAINE THE HELP HE HAS GIVEN TO ISRAEL.
00:33:16WHAT DO YOU THINK?
00:33:16GUEST: I THINK SETTING ASIDE
00:33:22POLITICS, THE REALITY IS THE
00:33:27FULL-SCALE WAR STARTS IN FEBRUARY OF 2022 ALTHOUGH THE
00:33:32RUSSIANS SEIZED CRIMEA BACK IN
00:33:362013 LATER THAT YEAR SO THIS WAR HAS BEEN GOING ON FOR WELL OVER A DECADE.
00:33:42I THINK AT VARIOUS PARTS MY VIEW
00:33:45DURING THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION, THERE WERE EFFORTS TO PROVIDE
00:33:48SOME WEAPONS SYSTEMS BUT THERE WERE LIMITATIONS TO HOW THE
00:33:52UKRAINIANS WERE ALLOWED TO USE THEM.
00:33:58WHAT WAS PROVIDED TO THE UKRAINIANS UKRAINE COULDN'T USE
00:34:01THEM TO STRIKE TARGETS IN RUSSIA
00:34:03AND THERE WERE A NUMBER OF WEAPON SYSTEMS THAT WERE PROVIDED.
00:34:07NOW DURING THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION THERE HAS BEEN
00:34:10SOME LIMITS ALSO TO WHAT THE
00:34:13UKRAINIANS BEEN WILLING TO PROVIDE.
00:34:17SO I TALKED TO PRESIDENT ZELENSKYY ABOUT HIS REQUEST FOR
00:34:22TOMAHAWK CRUISE MISSILES WHICH
00:34:25THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION CONSIDERED AND DECIDED NOT TO PROVIDE.
00:34:29THERE HAVE BEEN SOME THOUGHT
00:34:33ABOUT GIVING ADDITIONAL PATRIOT
00:34:35SYSTEMS OR ALLOWING THE
00:34:37UKRAINIANS TO BUILD PATRIOTS AND
00:34:39IT LOOKS LIKE THAT, THE U.S. IS
00:34:43STILL UNCLEAR WHAT IT'S GOING TO
00:34:46DO ON THAT ON ALLOWING THE
00:34:50UKRAINIANS TO BUILD PATRIOT WEAPON SYSTEMS.
00:34:53I THINK THE REALITY THOUGH IS
00:34:56THAT THERE ARE TWO THINGS RIGHT
00:35:00NOW BUT I THINK WOULD BE HELPFUL TO INCREASE THE PROBABILITY OF
00:35:04THE END OF THE WAR.
00:35:07ONE IS PRIMARY AND SECONDARY
00:35:09SANCTIONS AGAINST THE RUSSIANS,
00:35:11SOMETHING THAT NOW THE DECEASED
00:35:17SENATOR LINDSEY GRAHAM SUPPORTED INCLUDING ON HIS MOST RECENT TRIP JUST BEFORE HE DIED SO
00:35:22SANCTIONING THE RUSSIANS AND THE
00:35:24SECOND IS I WOULD SAY ESCALATING
00:35:27THE TYPE OF WEAPON SYSTEMS THAT
00:35:30THE UKRAINIANS NEEDED TO DEFEND
00:35:33THEIR TERRITORY. FROM AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS TO
00:35:37COMPONENTS FOR LONG-RANGE STRIKES. THAT IS WHAT I THINK WOULD BE
00:35:39HELPFUL RIGHT NOW, PUTTING
00:35:43VLADIMIR PUTIN IN A POSITION WHERE HE RECOGNIZES HE CANNOT
00:35:47WIN THIS WAR AND THAT IS WHERE I THINK WE NEED TO GET.
00:35:48HOST: ONE MORE CALL FROM LARRY,
00:35:53REPUBLICAN IN PENNSYLVANIA. GOOD MORNING. CALLER: YES.
00:35:56I WAS JUST CALLING.
00:36:00I WAS JUST CALLING THAT BOAT
00:36:08PLACE WITH HER COMING THROUGH
00:36:10WHERE THE OIL IS AT I THINK THE
00:36:13UNITED STATES SHOULD JUST TAKE
00:36:14OVER THAT PLACE AND TAKE TAKE,
00:36:18CHARGE THEM FOR IT AND SPLIT THE
00:36:19MONEY WITH -- .
00:36:22HOST: YOU TALKING ABOUT KHARG ISLAND LARRY?
00:36:27GUEST: I THINK THEY SHOULD --
00:36:28CALLER: I THINK THEY SHOULD SHIP
00:36:32AND CHARGE THEM THROUGH THEIR
00:36:34AND TAKE CARE OF ALL THESE OLDER PEOPLE WITH SOCIAL SECURITY AND
00:36:39STUFF WE WOULDN'T HAVE NO PROBLEMS.
00:36:42GUEST: THANKS FOR YOUR COMMENT.
00:36:46I THINK THE CHALLENGE LOOKING AT
00:36:48THE -- AT THE MILITARY
00:36:52OPERATIONS WHETHER IT IS TO SEND
00:36:57TROOPS INTO KHARG ISLAND OR ALSO INTO SOME OF THE ISLANDS IN THE
00:37:00STRAIT OF HORMUZ.
00:37:03THE CHALLENGE I THINK THAT ANY
00:37:07MILITARY INCLUDING THE U.S. MILITARY WOULD HAVE IS KHARG
00:37:11ISLAND IS RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE IRANIAN MAINLAND AND WHAT
00:37:16WE'VE ALREADY SEEN IS THE IRANIANS CONTINUE TO HAVE A
00:37:19NUMBER OF CAPABILITIES AND
00:37:20CRUISE MISSILES, THAT YOU'D BE
00:37:25PUTTING U.S. BOOTS ON THE GROUND
00:37:27ON AN ISLAND RIGHT OFF THE COAST
00:37:30OF IRAN WITHIN RANGE OF CRUISE,
00:37:35BALLISTIC AND DRONES.
00:37:38AND I THINK THAT IS THE CHALLENGE ONE WOULD FACE.
00:37:41WHETHER IT WAS IN COOPERATION
00:37:44WITH ANOTHER COUNTRY OR NOT, THAT IS THE CHALLENGE OF A
00:37:47MILITARY OPERATION IS THE
00:37:50IRANIANS ARE NOT GOING TO ALLOW THAT TO HAPPEN WITHOUT A FIGHT.
00:37:55IN ANY U.S. MILITARY LEADER WHETHER YOU ARE DEPLOYING THE
00:37:58MARINE EXPEDITIONARY UNIT, THE
00:38:01AIRBORNE OR OTHER ARMY FORCES IS
00:38:04ARE YOU GOING TO BE OK IF AND
00:38:06WHEN U.S. SOLDIERS ARE KILLED OR
00:38:10WOUNDED ON KHARG ISLAND WITH A
00:38:15RUNNING MISSILES AND DRONES COMING THROUGH.
00:38:18THAT IS THE POLITICAL RISK THAT
00:38:20ANY PRESIDENT HAS TO WEIGH TRYING TO SEIZE AN ISLAND LIKE
00:38:25THAT. >> WAS THE ONE THING THE ADMINISTRATION SHOULD BE DOING
00:38:29THAT THEY'RE NOT DOING RIGHT NOW?
00:38:30GUEST: THE BIGGEST ISSUE THAT
00:38:33PROBABLY SHOULD HAVE HAPPENED IF YOU LOOK AT SOME OF THE U.S.
00:38:38CAMPAIGNS INCLUDING THE GULF
00:38:42WAR, REALLY WEEKS AND MONTHS OF
00:38:44THE WAR IN AFGHANISTAN AFTER
00:38:489/11 WAS THE U.S. PUT COALITION
00:38:51CENTERS OF COUNTRIES WITH AN
00:38:53OBJECTIVE THAT THEN WORKED IN
00:38:57TANDEM TO ACHIEVE POLITICAL AND
00:39:02MILITARY OBJECTIVES. THAT HAS NOT BEEN DONE IN MY
00:39:04OPINION WELL ENOUGH AND THERE
00:39:07ARE ENOUGH COUNTRIES IN THE GULF RIGHT NOW U.S. ALLIES THAT COULD
00:39:10PROVIDE RESOURCES TO HELP OPEN
00:39:14UP THE STRAIGHT WITH FORCE IF
00:39:18NECESSARY. SO FOR ME THE BIGGEST ISSUE HAS
00:39:20GOT TO BE BUILDING A COALITION
00:39:23THAT CAN WORK TOWARDS AN
00:39:27AGREEMENT AND IF THAT COLLAPSES
00:39:30THEN TELL THE IRANIANS YOU WILL
00:39:31FACE A COALITION GREAT I DON'T
00:39:34THINK THERE IS A WAY THAT THIS
00:39:37CHALLENGE ENDS WITHOUT SOME KIND
00:39:40OF A COALITION. IT SHOULD HAVE HAPPENED I THINK
00:39:44BEFORE THE WAR STARTED.
00:39:45HOST: SETH JONES, PRESIDENT OF
00:39:49THE DEFENSE SECURITY DEPA