Original Broadcaster Captioning (Enhanced). Treat it as a searchable index of what was broadcast, not a quotation record.
00:00:01SERVICE CAREERS OF EVERY U.S. PRESIDENT, ALONG WITH KEY
00:00:05HISTORICAL EVENTS, LANDMARK SUPREME COURT CASES,
00:00:07CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENTS AND
00:00:09MAJOR TECHNOLOGY MILESTONES THROUGHOUT OUR NATION'S HISTORY.
00:00:12THE POSTER ALSO FEATURES A SPECIAL AMERICA TO WINDOW SECTION HIGHLIGHTING THE
00:00:17COUNTRY'S FOUNDING AND THE 250TH ANNIVERSARY OF THE UNITED
00:00:21STATES. BRING AMERICAN HISTORY HOME WITH C-SPAN.
00:00:24AMERICAN HISTORY TIMELINE POSTER
00:00:26SCAN THE CODE OR VISIT C-SPAN
00:00:29SHOP YOUR.
00:00:36FACE, JOHN.
00:00:38IT'S GREAT TO BE HERE BACK AT HUDSON.
00:00:42NOW THAT THE SNOW CREAT HAS
00:00:45MELTED IN WASHINGTON, WE FLORIDIANS FEEL ABLE TO VENTURE
00:00:49INTO THE DANGEROUS NORTH AGAIN.
00:00:51AND SO FAR, I HAVE TO SAY, IT'S GONE. OKAY?
00:00:55BUT I'M STILL A LITTLE NERVOUS. NEVER CAN QUITE TELL.
00:00:57AND IT'S GREAT TO BE HERE WITH
00:01:00CHUM WHO IS COLONEL TSHOMBE.
00:01:04BY THE WAY, I AM COLONEL MEAD, IF ANYBODY IS INTERESTED.
00:01:06I AM ACTUALLY A KENTUCKY COLONEL. I FEEL THAT WE ARE NOT GETTING
00:01:10THE RECOGNITION THAT WE DESERVE.
00:01:12NEXT, KENTUCKY DERBY. I'LL SEE YOU THERE.
00:01:16BUT I THINK IT'S ACTUALLY AT A
00:01:20TIME WHEN THE AMERICAN SORT OF CORPORATE ELITE AND INTELLECTUAL
00:01:23ELITE HAS MOVED AWAY FROM THE
00:01:27ARMED SERVICES OR MOVED AWAY
00:01:29EVEN FROM A SENSE OF PATRIOTISM, IN SOME CASES THINKING THAT
00:01:33PATRIOTISM EQUALS NATIONALISM EQUALS CHRISTIAN NATIONALISM
00:01:36EQUALS WHITE NATIONALISM AND IS BAD, BAD, BAD.
00:01:40YOU'RE MOVING THE OTHER WAY. WHY?
00:01:43A LOT OF IT HAS TO DO WITH, I
00:01:46THINK, MY OWN FAMILY'S STORY AND JOURNEYS LIKE THIS COUNTRY HAS
00:01:49GIVEN US SO MUCH. YOU KNOW, AND MY MY FATHER, WHEN
00:01:52I WAS VERY YOUNG, WE FLED VIOLENCE IN NIGERIA.
00:01:54AND DAD REALLY RAISED ME WITH THIS EVER PRESENT SENSE OF THE
00:01:59COUNTERFACTUAL. LIKE NO MATTER HOW BAD THINGS ARE, YOU KNOW, THIS IS A MAN WHO
00:02:01HAD A TOUGH LIFE, NOT NOT EVERYTHING KIND OF WORKED OUT FOR HIM, BUT BUT FOR THE GRACE
00:02:05OF THIS NATION, YOU'D BE DEAD IN A DITCH IN LAGOS.
00:02:09AND I THINK REALLY BEING ROOTED IN UNDERSTANDING IT WAS IT WAS
00:02:12NOT POSSIBLE TO TAKE FOR GRANTED ALL THE THINGS THAT THIS COUNTRY
00:02:16ACTUALLY OFFERS IN BOUNTY. AND THEN AS A CONSEQUENCE OF
00:02:18THAT GRATITUDE, LIKE YOUNG CHILDREN OF MY OWN, LIKE HOW
00:02:22IT'S NOT GOING TO SUSTAIN ITSELF, YOU KNOW, TO PASS IT
00:02:25DOWN TO THE NEXT GENERATION REQUIRES US TO INVEST IN IT, TO
00:02:28BE PROUD OF IT, TO HOLD IT UP AS SOMETHING WE ALL CHERISH.
00:02:32SO I CAN'T THINK OF A MORE IMPORTANT LIFE MISSION THAN COMMITTING MYSELF TO THAT.
00:02:37I SPOKE TO A GROUP OF VOLUNTEERS
00:02:40FELLOWS AT. THESE ARE THESE ARE YOUNG PEOPLE
00:02:44WHO ARE DELAYING OR IN SOME CASES ENTIRELY AVOIDING COLLEGE
00:02:48IN ORDER TO STUDY. AND IT BEGINS WITH REALLY WITH A
00:02:51CRASH COURSE IN HUMANITIES. INTERESTINGLY. AND I ASKED THEM AT THE
00:02:55INTRODUCTION TO GO AROUND THE
00:02:57ROOM AND TELL ME WHO THEY WERE AND WHY THEY WERE, WHERE THEY
00:03:00WERE FROM AND WHY THEY WERE HERE.
00:03:03WHAT WAS ASTONISHING AND THIS
00:03:06THESE KIDS WERE VERY ETHNICALLY DIVERSE.
00:03:08THEY WERE VERY GEOGRAPHIC, DIVERSE.
00:03:11BUT KID AFTER KID SAYS, I'M HERE
00:03:15BECAUSE I WANT TO DEFEND THE
00:03:17WEST, A CONCEPT THAT IS, YOU
00:03:20KNOW, IN SO MUCH OF OUR SOCIETY,
00:03:22IT IS AN ALMOST UNSPEAKABLE CONCEPT.
00:03:25HOW DID THAT BECOME SO CENTRAL TO PALANTIR'S THINKING?
00:03:27I MEAN, I THINK IT IT'S KIND OF CONGENITAL. LIKE WE STARTED THE BUSINESS.
00:03:32WE WORK IN 50 DIFFERENT INDUSTRIES, MORE THAN HALF THE BUSINESS COMMERCIAL.
00:03:35THE COMMERCIAL IS GROWING FASTER THAN GOVERNMENT. BUT IF YOU GO BACK TO THE GENESIS OF THE BUSINESS, IT WAS
00:03:39REALLY JUST A BUNCH OF PEOPLE WHO WANTED TO WORK ON VERY HARD
00:03:42PROBLEMS AND NATIONAL SECURITY AND SILICON VALLEY IN 2004, YOU
00:03:45COULD NOT THINK OF A MORE CONTRARIAN CRAZY IDEA THAN THAN
00:03:49THAT. AND I THINK IN THE FEATURE SIDE OF THAT IS IT ACTS AS A VERY HARD FILTER.
00:03:53YOU KNOW, THE KIND OF SELECTION
00:03:55BIAS YOU GET OF PEOPLE WHO ARE
00:03:57DEEPLY COMMITTED IN IT AND I THINK, THANK GOD WE DID THAT
00:04:01BECAUSE IT WAS HASN'T BEEN AN EASY 20 YEARS TO GET TO WHERE WE ARE.
00:04:04IT IS THE BELIEF, ALMOST THE PATHOLOGICAL COMMITMENT TO THAT
00:04:08VISION AND MISSION THAT ALLOWED US TO TO DELIVER ON THAT VISION. YEAH.
00:04:12I MEAN, IF WE GO BACK TO THE
00:04:141990 AND EARLY 2000 AND THERE WAS A SORT OF POST-COLD WAR
00:04:18SENSE THAT A GREAT CORPORATION
00:04:22COULD NO LONGER REALLY BE A NATIONAL CORPORATION.
00:04:24SO YOU HAD COMPANIES SAYING, I'M NOT WE'RE NOT AN AMERICAN
00:04:28COMPANY. WE'RE A COMPANY OF THE WORLD. AND THERE WAS A TREMENDOUS KIND
00:04:31OF COSMIC POLITAN ETHOS THAT
00:04:35THAT PEOPLE HAD TODAY. AND THE TECH SECTOR WAS PROBABLY
00:04:39THE MOST COSMOPOLITAN POST
00:04:41NATIONAL POST HISTORICAL. YOU KNOW, IF YOU'RE A SEARCH
00:04:45ENGINE HAS NO HOME, SO TO SPEAK. YEAH. BUT YOU NOW LOOK AT THE
00:04:50SITUATION AND TECH COMPETITION
00:04:52AND IS NOW ALMOST THE SENSE NATURAL FOCUS OF INTERNATIONAL
00:04:57GOP LITICAL COMPETITION. IS THAT CHANGING THE WHOLE INDUSTRY?
00:05:00IS THAT CHANGING ATTITUDES MORE BROADLY?
00:05:02WELL, THE PRECEPT TO BEGIN WITH IS IT WAS A DELUSION.
00:05:06THERE WERE OBVIOUSLY ALWAYS COUNTRIES AND THESE THINGS ALL MATTERED. AND YOU COULD EXIST IN THIS KIND
00:05:10OF DELUSIONARY STATE FOR A PERIOD OF TIME.
00:05:13AND NOW THAT ALL HAS TO BE MARK TO MARKET AND I'D SAY DIFFERENT
00:05:16ACTORS ARE IN DIFFERENT STAGES OF REALIZING WHETHER IT'S A DELUSION OR NOT.
00:05:21BUT I THINK THE WORLD EVENTS TOO, TO SOME DEGREE UNTIL VERY
00:05:25RECENT KIND OF ISSUES IN TECH
00:05:27HAVE KIND OF CRYSTALLIZED THE
00:05:30REALITY OF THE THREAT TO FREEDOM.
00:05:32GREAT POWER COMPETITION THAT, YES, ONE DAY SOMEONE CAN JUST
00:05:35WAKE UP AND ROLL TANKS ACROSS A BORDER AND FUNDAMENTALLY CHANGE
00:05:39THE LIVES OF YOUR FAMILIES, YOUR COWORKERS, THINGS THAT YOU TAKE
00:05:42FOR GRANTED. YOU REALLY CAN'T. IT DRIVES HOME IN A VISCERAL WAY
00:05:46THAT NO AMOUNT OF TALKING CAN SAY IS THAT FREEDOM ISN'T
00:05:49ACTUALLY FREE AND THAT THESE
00:05:50THINGS HAVE TO BE MAINTAINED AND
00:05:54THAT THEY'RE WORTHY OF INVESTING IN. OKAY.
00:05:58YOU MENTIONED WORLD EVENTS AND
00:06:00THAT REMINDS ME THERE'S ONE THING I REALLY WANT TO MAKE SURE
00:06:04WE ASK YOU ABOUT. YOU HAVE A PRETTY GOOD VIEW,
00:06:07MAYBE BETTER THAN SOME OF US IN THE CHEAP SEATS ABOUT WHAT'S
00:06:11ACTUALLY GOING ON IN THE MIDDLE EAST RIGHT NOW AND WHAT THE
00:06:15SITUATION IS. YOU WANT TO GIVE US SHARE WITH
00:06:17US YOUR ASSESSMENT OF WHY ARE WE
00:06:21THERE, HOW ARE THINGS WORKING, HOW IT MAY END? WELL, I'LL SHARE I'LL SHARE THE
00:06:25PARTS I CAN, YOU KNOW, SO THE PART THAT I THINK IS VERY CLEAR
00:06:28IS THAT IRAN IS REALLY A MARK TO MARKET MOMENT OF MANY OF THE
00:06:32THINGS I WROTE ABOUT IN THE BOOK. YOU KNOW.
00:06:35THE THE DETERRENCE HAS FAILED.
00:06:40YOU KNOW, WE HAVE YOU COULD SAY WE'RE MAYBE STARTING TO
00:06:43REESTABLISH IT, BUT YOU GO BACK TO THE ANNEXATION OF CRIMEA IN 2014, THE MILITARIZATION OF THE
00:06:47SPRATLY ISLANDS AND 15 JCPOA AND
00:06:49THE BREAKOUT CAPABILITY OF IRAN WITH THE BOMB AND 17 A POGROM IN
00:06:55ISRAEL. ONE THING AFTER THING, THE
00:06:56HOUTHIS AND THE RED SEA WERE NOT
00:06:59ABLE TO SECURE OUR ADVERSARIES
00:07:01FROM IMPACTING OUR LIFE AND THE FREEDOM AND PROSPERITY OF THE WORLD.
00:07:04AND CERTAINLY THE FREEDOM AND PROSPERITY OF AMERICA. AND THIS HAS BEEN A FROG BOIL
00:07:09AND FOR SOME OF OUR ADVERSARIES LIKE CHINA, THEY HAVE STRATEGICALLY INVESTED IN UNDER
00:07:14UNDERMINE MEANING AMERICAN POWER SINCE GULF WAR ONE. AND JUST NEVER THOUGHT ACTUALLY
00:07:18DOING THIS.
00:07:19AND OTHERS HAVE TAKEN ADVANTAGE OF SPECIFIC OPPORTUNITIES AND
00:07:23MOMENTS THAT THEY MAYBE MISREAD OR READ CORRECTLY THAT BETRAY A
00:07:28SENSE OF RETREATING FROM THE WORLD.
00:07:30AND THEN I THINK IRAN REALLY SHOWS. IF YOU LOOK AT MIDNIGHT HAMMER,
00:07:33YOU LOOK AT MADURO, IT'S HARD TO THINK ABOUT THINGS THAT HAVE HAPPENED THAT HAVE DONE MORE TO
00:07:37RESTORE DETERRENCE THAN THOSE EVENTS.
00:07:39YOU KNOW, THERE IS THIS I LIKE TO CHARACTERIZE THE AMERICAN
00:07:43CHARACTER. THERE'S A SENSE IN WHICH WE SEEM NOT TO REACT.
00:07:47YOU KNOW, WE TURN THE OTHER CHEEK, WE TURN THE OTHER CHEEK, WE TURN THE OTHER CHEEK.
00:07:50BUT THERE IS A MOMENT THAT COMES WHEN WE STOP.
00:07:52AND THEN TO BORROW, A FAVORITE EXPRESSION I HAVE IS AND IN THAT
00:07:56MOMENT, YOU REALLY RISK THE AMERICAN YOU TO LOOP WHICH IS
00:07:58NOT OBSERVE, ORIENT, DECIDE ACT. IT'S OBSERVE, OVERREACT,
00:08:02DESTROY, APOLOGIZE. YEAH. AND I THINK THIS IS ALMOST SO
00:08:08IRRATIONAL, BUT SO PART OF THE AMERICAN CHARACTER THAT OUR ADVERSARIES CAN'T CONTEMPLATE IT.
00:08:12THEY CONTINUE TO MODEL US AS THESE RATIONAL ACTORS WHO KEEP
00:08:15TURNING OTHER CHEEK AND THEY DON'T SEE THE DISCONTINUED T THAT'S COMING. NOW, I THINK THIS IS ONE OF OUR
00:08:19GREAT ADVANTAGES ACTUALLY, THAT IT'S VERY HARD TO MODEL WHAT WE'RE GOING TO DO BECAUSE
00:08:23FRANKLY, WE DON'T KNOW WHAT WE'RE GOING TO DO WHEN WE GET THERE. BUT A BIG PART OF THIS, I THINK
00:08:27THE BIGGEST LIE OF GLOBALIZATION, THAT THAT OUGHT
00:08:31TO BE MARK TO MARKET. AND IT'S KIND OF THE UNDERCURRENT OF THE ENTIRE BOOK
00:08:34IS THAT THIS FACILE IDEA THAT WE
00:08:37WILL DO THE INNOVATION, THEY'LL DO THE PRODUCTION.
00:08:40WHOEVER THE DAY IS, THAT'S WRONG. IT'S WRONG BECAUSE ACTUALLY, TO
00:08:43BORROW A PHRASE FROM ARTHUR HERMAN, INNOVATION IS THE
00:08:47CONSEQUENCE OF PRODUCTION. IF YOU DON'T MAKE THE THEN YOU CAN'T INNOVATE ON HOW YOU'RE
00:08:52GOING TO MAKE THAT THING. SO LETTING LOOSE GROW UP AND
00:08:54START BEING A CHEAP CONTRACT RESEARCH ORGANIZATION IN THE
00:08:57PHARMACEUTICAL INDUSTRY HAS NOW LED TO A WORLD WHERE 50% OF ALL CLINICAL TRIALS ARE HAPPENING IN
00:09:01CHINA. THIS WAS INEVITABLE AND OBVIOUS CONCLUSION. OUR EXPERIENCES FROM WORLD WAR
00:09:05TWO, WHICH WE DOCUMENT IN THE BOOK, SHOW US THAT IT'S AMAZING
00:09:08THAT THE SAGINAW'S STEERING GEAR COMPANY WHO'S NEVER MADE A
00:09:12WEAPON IN THEIR LIFE, CAN FIGURE OUT HOW TO MAKE A WEAPON IN A
00:09:16100TH THE TIME THAT THE US ARMY COULD BEFORE THEM.
00:09:18AND WHEN YOU THEN REFLECT ON THAT IN A BROADER SENSE, THE
00:09:22ENTIRE AMERICAN ECONOMY WAS STRUCTURED VERY, VERY DIFFERENTLY. WE HAD WHAT I LIKE TO CALL AS
00:09:26DUAL PURPOSE COMPANIES. IT'S NOT ABOUT THE DUAL USE PRODUCT, I THINK.
00:09:29I THINK TOO MUCH HAS BEEN SAID ABOUT THAT AND KIND OF MISUNDERSTANDS WHAT'S HAPPENING HERE.
00:09:33BUT A DUAL PURPOSE COMPANY IS ONE THAT UNDERSTANDS THAT, YES,
00:09:36MAYBE THEIR MAIN BUSINESS IS
00:09:39PROSPERITY, BUT THERE'S ALSO A PART OF THIS THAT THEY HAVE TO
00:09:42BE COMMITTED TO FREEDOM. AND WE SEE THIS, YOU KNOW,
00:09:45CHRYSLER DIDN'T JUST BUILD MINIVANS. THEY BUILT THE MINUTEMAN.
00:09:49THEY BUILT MISSILES. FORD USED TO BUILD SATELLITES UNTIL 1990.
00:09:53GENERAL MILLS, THE CEREAL COMPANY, BUILT TORPEDOES,
00:09:57EVERYTHING. WHY? WHY WOULD THAT BE RATIONAL? I LIKE THE GENERAL MILLS EXAMPLE BECAUSE IT'S KIND OF A CRAZY
00:10:01ONE, WHICH, BY THE WAY, IF YOU GO TO THEIR CORPORATE WEBSITE, YOU WON'T FIND THAT IN THE HISTORY.
00:10:05BUT I THINK IT'S KIND OF ODD,
00:10:06BUT THEY BUILT TORPEDOES BECAUSE THEY HAD A MECHANICS DIVISION
00:10:10AND MECHANICS DIVISION JOB WAS TO BUILD MACHINERY. THAT PROCESS GRAIN.
00:10:13EVERYTHING THEY LEARNED, BUILDING THAT CLASS OF MACHINERY
00:10:16ALLOWED THEM TO BUILD BUILD MACHINE TOOLS TO BUILD WEAPONS
00:10:20OF WAR THAT DROVE DETERRENCE. THIS IS PROFOUNDLY IMPORTANT
00:10:23BECAUSE IT DRIVES THE R&D CYCLE.
00:10:26LIKE IF THE GOVERNMENT HAS TO DO ALL OF THE R&D ENTIRELY ON ITS
00:10:30OWN, IT'S UNAFFORDABLE, IT'S INEFFICIENT, IT AND IT'S STRUCTURALLY THE GOVERNMENT IS
00:10:33ALWAYS GOING TO LEAD TO A FORM OF CENTRALIZED PLANNING, AS I
00:10:37LIKE TO QUIP. EVERYONE'S GIVEN UP ON COMMUNISM, INCLUDING THE CHINESE AND THE RUSSIANS, EXCEPT FOR
00:10:41CUBA AND THE DOD. AND THAT'S THE CONCEPT.
00:10:45IT'S THE CONSEQUENCE OF BEING A MONOPSONY. IT'S NOT BECAUSE THEY WANT TO BE
00:10:48COMMUNISTS, IT'S BECAUSE AS A MONOPSONY, YOU DON'T HAVE ANY MARKET FORCES.
00:10:52YOU DON'T HAVE SOMEONE IN THE BRUTAL COMMERCIAL SECTOR. YOU WAKE UP EVERY DAY WITH A
00:10:55COMPETITOR TRYING TO KILL YOU. AND THAT IS THE STIMULUS THAT ALLOWS YOU TO INNOVATE AND OR DIE.
00:11:01RIGHT. BUT THAT THAT ISN'T REALLY THERE
00:11:03ABSENT CONFLICT IN THE DEPARTMENT OF WAR.
00:11:06AND OBVIOUSLY, WE DON'T WANT TO FIND OUT THESE THINGS IN CONFLICT.
00:11:09WE WANT TO FIND OUT THEM WELL BEFORE THEN. AND WE ACTUALLY HAD A VERY
00:11:12ROBUST SYSTEM IN WORLD WAR TWO
00:11:15AND IN THE EARLY COLD WAR THAT SOLVED FOR THESE PROBLEMS REALLY WELL.
00:11:18WE BUILT 154 DIFFERENT AIRFRAMES IN WORLD WAR TWO.
00:11:21I'M PRETTY SURE ONLY TEN OF THEM WERE DETERMINATIVE TO SUCCESS. BUT IN THOSE STATISTICS BELIES
00:11:25THE FACT THAT NO ONE KNEW WHICH TEN THEY WERE GOING TO BE OTHERWISE.
00:11:28WE REALLY ONLY BUILT TEN, RIGHT? LIKE THERE IS A PROCESS TO THE PRODUCTION, THE EXPERIMENTATION
00:11:33THAT LED TO THE INNOVATION AND A LOT OF THIS COMES DOWN TO THE PRIMACY OF PEOPLE.
00:11:36MAYBE THE SECOND GREAT LIE THAT WE'VE BEEN ABLE TO IMBIBE SINCE
00:11:40THE END OF THE COLD WAR IS THAT
00:11:44THERE'S A PROCESS THAT WILL SAVE US. YOU KNOW, WHAT WE REALLY NEED IS
00:11:48ACQUISITION REFORM. WE NEED THIS. THERE'S JUST A PROCESS TO DO IT. BUT IF YOU REALLY LOOK AT WHAT
00:11:52WORKED, IT WAS THE PRIMACY OF GREAT PEOPLE, WHICH I THINK SPEAKS PROFOUNDLY TO THE AMERICAN CHARACTER.
00:11:55WE UNDERSTAND THAT FOUNDERS MATTER. WE CALL THEM THE FOUNDING
00:12:00FATHERS FOR A REASON. YOU KNOW, EUROPE IS CREATED ZERO COMPANIES IN THE LAST 50 YEARS
00:12:03FROM SCRATCH, CREATED ALL OF OUR
00:12:07TRILLION DOLLAR COMPANIES FROM SCRATCH IN THE LAST 50 YEARS.
00:12:11Y YOU KNOW, OUR TOLERANCE FOR
00:12:13AND MAYBE EVEN PROCLIVITY TO ENJOYING THE HERETICAL HERO, THE
00:12:19HERETIC WHO DOES SOMETHING CRAZY, WHO AGAINST THE ODDS, SUCCEEDS.
00:12:22AND THE HEROISM IS AN EX POST THING THAT WHAT THEY DID WORKED.
00:12:25BUT IF YOU LOOK AT THE HISTORY OF ALL DEFENSE INNOVATION, I'M
00:12:29PRETTY SURE LIKE LITERALLY ALL OF IT COMES DOWN TO SOME HERETIC
00:12:32WHO BUCKED THE SYSTEM, WHO TOOK,
00:12:34YOU KNOW, MAYBE NOT HE DIDN'T GET CREDIT UNTIL HE DIED OR SHE
00:12:37DIED AND AND DELIVERED THE THE OUTCOME. AND I THINK TELLING THOSE
00:12:40STORIES, WHICH WE SPREAD THROUGHOUT THE BOOK IS REALLY IMPORTANT BECAUSE I WANTED TO
00:12:44MOTIVATE THE HERETICS WHO ARE LATENT TODAY.
00:12:47THEY'RE LATENT IN THE DEPARTMENT. THEY ABSOLUTELY ARE THERE.
00:12:49OUR MILITARY IS THE BEST IN THE WORLD. THE UNIFORMED SERVICE MEMBERS ARE BETTER THAN WE DESERVE AS A
00:12:55NATION. PART OF THIS IS ABOUT THE EMPLOYMENT OF THE TALENT, THE
00:12:57EMPLACEMENT OF THE TOWN AND KIND
00:12:59OF MOTIVATING THEM TO GO TAKE THESE RISKS.
00:13:02YOU KNOW, IT ISN'T A CAREER. IT'S OKAY IF YOU'RE A KAMIKAZE
00:13:04BECAUSE YOUR KAMIKAZE MOVES MAY BE THE ONLY THING THAT LEAD US TO WIN THE WAR.
00:13:08YOU WERE SAYING EARLIER THAT SOMETHING I THOUGHT INTERESTING
00:13:12THAT THAT YOU FOUND THAT AIR TALENT IN THE U.S. MILITARY MUCH
00:13:16GREATER THAN YOU EXPECTED. AND YOU THINK IT MAY HAVE A
00:13:19BIGGER ROLE THE THE TALENT OF THE UNIFORMED MILITARY? ABSOLUTELY.
00:13:24I WOULD EVEN SAY AS AS A EVIDENCE THERE, WE RECENTLY HAD
00:13:27A HACKATHON AT A DEVELOPER CONFERENCE ABOUT YOUR HACKATHON
00:13:31AND THE WINNING TEAM. YOU KNOW, YOU HAD ALL OF US PRIVATE SECTOR THERE, ALL THESE A.I. DEVELOPERS.
00:13:35THE WINNING TEAM WAS FOUR UNIFORMED SERVICE MEMBERS FROM THE ARMY.
00:13:39SO WHAT I THINK IS VERY ENCOURAGING IS THAT FIRST, I
00:13:43THINK IN MANY WAYS, THE MILITARY ADOPTION OF AI IS AHEAD OF THE
00:13:46US COMMERCIAL SECTOR AND THAT'S SAYING SOMETHING BECAUSE THE US COMMERCIAL SECTOR IS NOT ASLEEP
00:13:50AT THE WHEEL COMPARED TO EUROPE OR SOMETHING, RIGHT?
00:13:54SO AND I THINK A BIG PART OF THAT IS, IS THAT I THINK THE
00:13:57NATURE OF AI AND ITS IMPACT ON
00:14:01ARE PEOPLE THE AMERICAN WORKER IS MISSING. UNDERSTOOD.
00:14:03I LIKE TO THINK ABOUT THIS AS WE
00:14:05ARE LISTENING TO THE WRONG
00:14:08PEOPLE ABOUT WHAT IS IMPACTS GOING TO BE. WE'RE LISTENING TO THE INVENTORS
00:14:12OF THE TECHNOLOGY. AT FIRST BLUSH, THAT MAY SEEM VERY REASONABLE, BUT IF YOU GO
00:14:15BACK TO THE MICROSCOPE, THE PERSONAL COMPUTER, THE POWER
00:14:19LOOM, THE TELESCOPE, IT WAS NOT THE INVENTORS THAT DETERMINED
00:14:22ITS IMPACT ON SOCIETY. IT WAS THE PEOPLE WHO WIELDED THE TECHNOLOGY.
00:14:26GALILEO DID NOT INVENT THE TELESCOPE. HE USED THE TELESCOPE TO
00:14:29DISCOVER THE PLANETS. PLANETARY MOTION. RIGHT.
00:14:32AND SO WHILE IT'S VERY CHARISMATIC TO LISTEN TO THESE PEOPLE WHO ARE INCREDIBLY
00:14:36BRILLIANT, THEY THEMSELVES, JUST LIKE THEIR CREATION, HAVE A FORM
00:14:39OF JAGGED INTELLIGENCE, YOU KNOW, JUST BECAUSE THEY BUILT
00:14:41THE THING DOESN'T MEAN THEY UNDERSTAND THE IMPLICATIONS OF IT. WHO SHOULD WE BE LISTENING TO?
00:14:44THE FRONT LINE.
00:14:46LISTEN TO THE FIRES OFFICER THAT'S TRANSFORMING THE WORK WITH.
00:14:50HEY, I LISTEN TO THE ICU NURSE WHOSE ENTIRE SHIFT IN SEPSIS MANAGEMENT HAS CHANGED BECAUSE OF THIS.
00:14:55LISTEN TO THEM NOT ONLY BECAUSE
00:14:57YOU'LL HEAR HOW EXCITED THEY ARE ABOUT ITS TRANSFORMATIONAL
00:15:01IMPACT IN TERMS OF THEIR VOCATION, BUT ALSO HOW EXCITED THEY ARE ABOUT A FUTURE IN
00:15:04AMERICA FOR THEIR CHILDREN THAT IS ADOPTED.
00:15:08AI AND THESE ARE THE VOICES, OF COURSE, THAT DON'T GET INVITED TO WRITE OP EDS OR GO TO A TALK
00:15:12SHOW OR JOIN A MEDIA THING. BUT I THINK THIS IS PROFOUNDLY
00:15:16DANGEROUS BECAUSE A.I. IS
00:15:18DAVID'S SLINGSHOT AGAINST GOLIATH, YOU KNOW? OKAY.
00:15:21I JUST TOLD YOU ABOUT ALL THESE LIES WE'VE IMBIBED THE MYTH OF
00:15:24GLOBALIZATION, THE LOSS OF INNOVATION TO SEEDING
00:15:28PRODUCTIVITY. BUT I YOU KNOW, I TOLD YOU HOW
00:15:30WE DON'T EVEN KNOW WHAT WE'RE GOING TO DO, RIGHT? WELL, THE CHINESE ARE THE BEST
00:15:34AT LONG RANGE PLANNING. THEY'VE THOUGHT THEY HAVE THE BEST PLANS SINCE GULF WAR ONE
00:15:37AND MAYBE EVEN BEFORE, SOME SAY ALL THE WAY TO MAO HOW TO
00:15:39UNDERMINE AMERICAN POWER. YOU KNOW, IT WASN'T ON THEIR PLAN.
00:15:43I I'M ON THEIR PLAN WASN'T ON OUR PLAN. RIGHT. IN THIS SORT OF REACTING TO
00:15:47REALITY IS AN AMERICAN STRENGTH. AND SO THE PROMISE OF AI IS THAT
00:15:51WE REALIZE THAT IT IS THE WAY THAT WE GIVE THE AMERICAN
00:15:54WORKERS SUPERPOWERS. HOW DO WE MAKE THE AMERICAN WORKER 50 TIMES MORE PRODUCTIVE
00:15:58THAN ANY OTHER WORKER ANYWHERE IN THE WORLD? AND THAT IS THE BASIS OF
00:16:02UNDERWRITING THE RE INDUSTRIALIZATION OF OUR COUNTRY.
00:16:04AND THAT IS THE ANTIDOTE, THE
00:16:06PROFOUNDLY NEGATIVE MANAGERIAL REVOLUTION OF THE 20TH CENTURY
00:16:09WHERE WE SUCKED A POWER AWAY FROM HIGH AGENCY LEADERS AND FROM THE PEOPLE WHO ACTUALLY DO
00:16:13THE WORK TO A KIND OF AMORPHOUS MIDDLE MANAGEMENT LAYER IS
00:16:17ACTUALLY PUSHING AGENCY BACK IN BOTH DIRECTIONS.
00:16:20IT IS. IT IS ACTUALLY THE FIRES OFF IT.
00:16:22THERE'S ACTUALLY THE PERSON ON THE FACTORY FLOOR WHO'S BUILDING
00:16:26THE AI APPS. AND I THINK THIS IS PROFOUNDLY EMPOWERING.
00:16:29I THINK ONE OF THE REASONS WE'RE SEEING THIS REVOLUTION IN THE MILITARY IS THAT YOU HAVE
00:16:33PROFOUND SUBJECT MATTER EXPERTS WHO ACTUALLY UNDERSTAND WHAT THEY'RE DOING.
00:16:36NO LONGER NEED TO GO CONVINCE A BUREAUCRATIC MIDDLE MANAGEMENT
00:16:39THAT THEIR IDEAS FOR THE FUTURE ARE CORRECT. INSTEAD, IN TWO WEEKS, THEY GO
00:16:42OFF AND BUILD IT, AND THEN THEY'RE ARGUING ABOUT AN EMPIRICAL THING, WHICH THEY'RE
00:16:47GOING TO WIN THAT ARGUMENT BECAUSE IT IS DELIVERING RESULTS IN REALITY.
00:16:50AND SO IT'S MASSIVELY EMPOWERING THAT WAY.
00:16:52AND I THINK THIS ADVANTAGES PEOPLE WITH SPECIFIC KNOWLEDGE
00:16:56OVER GENERAL KNOWLEDGE. AND THAT PART OF THE FELLOWS PROGRAM WE HAVE IS RECOGNIZING,
00:17:00OKAY, WHAT WILL EDUCATION HAVE TO LOOK LIKE IN A WORLD THAT LOOKS LIKE THIS?
00:17:05PROBABLY THE ONE THING YOU'RE GOING TO LEARN A LOT OF STUFF ON THE JOB IN THE FUTURE. THE ONE THING YOU WILL NOT LEARN
00:17:09IS THE HUMANITIES. A GROUNDING IN THE WESTERN CANON
00:17:13AS I THINK LEO STRAUSS SAID. SOME SAY EINSTEIN, TOO, HAD A VERSION OF THIS, THE SAME SORT
00:17:17OF THINKING THAT LED YOU TO CREATE THE BOMB CANNOT BE THE SAME SORT OF THINKING THAT TELLS
00:17:20YOU HOW TO GOVERN ITS USE. HMM. YEAH.
00:17:24NOW I THINK YOU'RE YOU'RE OPTIMISM ABOUT WHAT I CAN DO.
00:17:28I FIND REALLY STRIKING AND CERTAINLY, AS YOU WERE TALKING,
00:17:32I WAS THINKING ABOUT HOW HISTORIC.
00:17:35THE ONE OF THE WAY EDGES OF THE
00:17:38U.S. MILITARY OVER OTHER MILITARIES, REALLY IN EVERY
00:17:40CONFLICT SINCE THE REVOLUTION HAS BEEN THIS SENSE THAT IN THE
00:17:44US ARMY, IN CEOS AND UNIT
00:17:48COMMANDERS, HAD MORE SORT OF
00:17:50AUTONOMY AND AUTHORITY AND USED
00:17:52THAT IN VERY CREATIVE WAYS. IT SOUNDS LIKE YOU'RE SAYING
00:17:55THIS IS THIS IS STRENGTHENING OUR SUPERPOWER.
00:17:58YES, IT'S EXACTLY THAT. YEAH.
00:18:02AND IT'S ALSO THE DOING THAT SAME THING ON THE FACTORY FLOOR
00:18:07AND INDUSTRY. BUT HOW MANY JOBS WILL THERE
00:18:09ACTUALLY BE IF WE RE INDUSTRIALIZE THE COUNTRY WITH
00:18:13WITH A I THINK A LOT. SO I'LL GIVE YOU ONE.
00:18:17YOU KNOW, THERE'S ALL OF THESE NARRATIVE VIOLATIONS, PEOPLE I THINK IT'S OVERWROUGHT IN THE
00:18:21MEDIA. PEOPLE ARE LIKE, LOOK AT A.I. LEADING THESE JOB LOSSES. IF YOU ACTUALLY JUST EVEN LINE
00:18:24UP THE TIMING, IT'S LIKE THE ORIGINAL CHATBOT DIDN'T RESULT
00:18:27IN ANY JOB LOSSES, BUT PEOPLE DIDN'T WANT TO IMMEDIATELY ASSIGN THE LAYOFFS AT SOME COMPANY.
00:18:31CORRELATION IS NOT CAUSATION WOULD BE THE SHORT FORM OF ANSWERING THAT QUESTION ON THE
00:18:35OTHER SIDE, IN THE POSITIVE,
00:18:37WE'VE BEEN WORKING WITH A PARTS
00:18:40MANUFACTURER THAT WAS ABLE TO USE AI TO AUTOMATE THEIR
00:18:42PLANNING PROCESS. SO WHEN THEY WERE DOING PLANNING, NO PRODUCTION WAS
00:18:46HAPPENING BECAUSE THEY GOT WE GOT PLANNING DOWN FROM WEEKS TO
00:18:49REALLY MINUTES. THEY FOUND THAT THEY HAD SO MUCH
00:18:52MORE PARTS TO PRODUCE IN IDLE CAPACITY TO PRODUCE IT THAT THEY HIRED A THIRD SHIFT.
00:18:56AND SO HERE YOU HAVE A VERY CONCRETE EXAMPLE OF HOW AI IS
00:19:00LEADING TO MORE BLUE COLLAR JOBS.
00:19:03AND I DON'T MEAN THE FACILE LOOK. I'M VERY HAPPY THAT WE HAVE BLUE COLLAR JOBS BUILDING DATA
00:19:07CENTERS AND ALL THAT SORT OF STUFF, BUT THAT THERE'S AN EPHEMERIS TO THAT. YOU BUILD A DATA CENTER AND
00:19:10WHATEVER I'M TALKING ABOUT, THE ACTUAL REAL ECONOMY THAT WILL
00:19:13ALWAYS EXIST. WHERE IS LEADING DWELL TIME IS
00:19:16DELETING THE DEAD WEIGHT LOSS
00:19:18THAT WE JUST KIND OF ASSUME CAN'T BE MOVED AROUND TODAY.
00:19:22THAT ENABLES US TO EMPLOY HUMANS IN MORE PRODUCTIVE WAYS.
00:19:25AND YOU KNOW, AS YOU ACKNOWLEDGE
00:19:28IN THE BOOK, OUR D INDUSTRIALIZATION HAS GIVEN
00:19:30CHINA ALL OF THESE ADVANTAGES IN
00:19:32TERMS OF INNOVATION, CAPACITY AND PRODUCTION BASED ON
00:19:37PRODUCTION. AND AND YOUR IDEA IS THAT SOMEHOW A.I. IS THIS IS THE
00:19:41SPECIAL SAUCE THAT'S GOING TO ALLOW THE RESHORING OF AND THE
00:19:46RECREATION. YEAH. BECAUSE SO IF YOU CAN GIVE THE AMERICAN WORKER SUPERPOWERS, IF YOU CAN MAKE THEM 50 TIMES MORE
00:19:50PRODUCTIVE, IT'S A DIRECTIONAL AMBITION. WHAT I'M SAYING IS LIKE, NO ONE'S TRYING TO DO THIS TO MAKE
00:19:54US 10% MORE PRODUCTIVE. I'M TALKING ABOUT ORDERS OF MAGNITUDE OF PRODUCTIVITY.
00:19:58NOW, YOU BEND THE COST CURVE LIKE THAT, THE COST OF MAKING
00:20:00THINGS IN THE US IS POTENTIALLY CHEAPER.
00:20:03IT ALSO FORCES YOU TO THINK ABOUT NEW WAYS OF MAKING THINGS. YOU'RE PROBABLY GOING TO USE AUTONOMOUS FACTORIES.
00:20:07FROM HADRIAN, NOT LEGACY WAYS OF DOING THESE THINGS.
00:20:10AND THIS SORT OF CHALLENGE STIMULUS IS ACTUALLY GOING TO BE
00:20:13A BOLUS OF INNOVATION AS WE DRIVE THE RE INDUSTRIALIZATION.
00:20:15AND THERE'S A LOT OF EVIDENCE TO SUGGEST THIS IS LIKELY POSSIBLE. LOOK AT SPACE X, YOU KNOW, AS A
00:20:19VERTICALLY INTEGRATED MANUFACTURER, R&D IS CO-LOCATED WITH PRODUCTION.
00:20:23IT'S NOT TRUE THAT WE'RE NOT GOOD AT MAKING THINGS IN THIS COUNTRY.
00:20:26ACTUALLY, SOME OF THE MOST PROFOUND THINGS THAT ARE HAPPENING RIGHT NOW AT SCALE ARE
00:20:30HAPPENING IN THIS COUNTRY. WE'RE MAKING THEM DIFFERENTLY.
00:20:32AND THOSE LESSONS WE NEED TO KIND OF SPREAD OUT AS WE'RE
00:20:37INDUSTRIALIZE. OKAY.
00:20:40THINKING OF APPLYING THIS COST CURVE, YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT THE
00:20:44INCREASED PRODUCTIVITY TO MILITARY TECHNOLOGY.
00:20:46I KNOW WE'RE ALL READING IN THE IN THE WAR IN THE GULF THAT
00:20:50WE'RE USING THESE $2 MILLION
00:20:53MISSILES TO SHOOT DOWN $10,000
00:20:56DRONES OR OR WHATEVER. AND PRETTY SOON WE'RE GOING TO RUN OUT AND BE UNABLE TO BUY.
00:21:00YOU DON'T ACTUALLY THINK THAT'S
00:21:02THE SITUATION. YOU WANT TO EXPLAIN WHY? YEAH, WELL, A LOT OF THE
00:21:06MUNITIONS WE HAVE ARE PRETTY OLD, ACTUALLY.
00:21:09THERE'S THERE'S AN OPPORTUNITY HERE. YES. WE'RE EXPANDING MUNITIONS.
00:21:12WE'RE ALSO GOING TO HAVE TO RESTOCK THAT. SO I'VE ALWAYS FELT THE
00:21:15DETERRENT IS NOT THE STOCKPILE. THIS IS THE LESSON WE SHOULD HAVE LEARNED INSTANTLY FROM UKRAINE.
00:21:19HOW DO YOU GO THROUGH TEN YEARS OF PRODUCTION IN TEN WEEKS AND NOT THINK CLEARLY?
00:21:21THE STOCKPILE IS NOT NOT THE QUESTION. THE QUESTION IS YOUR ABILITY TO
00:21:24GENERATE AND REGENERATE THE STOCKPILE, RIGHT. IT'S PRODUCTION.
00:21:28WE HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY NOW TO REALLY RAMP PRODUCTION, AND THAT
00:21:32MEANS THAT WE CAN RE-IMAGINE THESE MUNITIONS. YOU DON'T HAVE TO MAKE THEM THE SAME OLD WAY.
00:21:35THE THING THAT USED TO COST $2 MILLION, I'M NOT EVEN TALKING ABOUT NEW CLASSES OF AMMUNITION.
00:21:39HOW DO YOU HOW DO YOU MAKE THE SAME MUNITION AT A SUBSTANTIALLY
00:21:43LOWER COST BASIS? HOW DO YOU REIMAGINE SOME OF THE DESIGN THAT IS, BY THE WAY, THIS
00:21:46IS COMPLETELY PRECEDENTED. THIS IS WHAT WE DID IN WORLD WAR
00:21:49TWO WITH ANTI-AIRCRAFT WEAPONS, WITH MACHINE GUNS. WE WENT TO AMERICAN INDUSTRY.
00:21:53WE SAID THIS IS THE ARMY SPEC OF THE THING. ALL OF THEM TOOK THAT AND
00:21:57ITERATED ON IT AND PRODUCED BETWEEN TEN X AND 100 X IMPROVEMENT IN PRODUCTIVITY AND
00:22:02COST. SO WITHOUT THE STIMULUS, THOUGH,
00:22:05IT'S NOT GOING TO HAPPEN WITHOUT THE PRECIPICE, WITHOUT
00:22:08REALIZING, HEY, WE'RE GOING TO HAVE TO DO A LOT OF MAGAZINE REGENERATE HERE, WHERE WE'RE
00:22:12GOING HAVE TO THINK ABOUT THESE THINGS DIFFERENTLY WITHOUT BEING FORCED TO SAY THE HISTORICAL
00:22:15CONSTRAINTS, THE BUREAUCRACY. WE ACCEPTED THE THINGS THAT WE THOUGHT WERE RULES THAT ARE NOT
00:22:21ACTUALLY THE LAWS OF PHYSICS. THEY'RE NOT REAL. THE ONLY, YOU KNOW, THE PRIMACY
00:22:25OF WINNING COMES TO THE FORE
00:22:27WHEN YOU'RE LOOKING DOWN THE BARREL OF A GUN.
00:22:30AND, YOU KNOW, THE ONLY THING YOU ARE LITERALLY CONSTRAINED BY IS PHYSICS.
00:22:36AND SO THESE TOMAHAWKS, I GUESS THEY'RE WHAT, THEIR 1980S TECHNOLOGY.
00:22:40AND SO THE CONCEPT IS THE REPLACEMENT DOESN'T NEED TO
00:22:44REMODEL ALL THE 1980S TECH IN THE SAME WAY. YEAH.
00:22:48TO JUST USE IT AS AN EXAMPLE OF FIRST OF ALL, TOMAHAWKS REALLY A BEAUTIFUL WEAPON. YOU KNOW, THERE'S KIND OF A
00:22:52JOKE, YOU KNOW, HEY, I'VE GOT THIS ONE WAY ATTACK DRONE.
00:22:55IT FLIES 1100 MILES. IT OPERATES GPS DENIED.
00:23:01IT'S STEALTH. OH, WHEN'S IT COMING?
00:23:0484, 20, 20, 84. NO, NO. 1984.
00:23:09STOMACH. THE PROBLEM, OF COURSE, IS IT'S, YOU KNOW, 1.4 TO $2 MILLION A POP.
00:23:13AND SO HOW DO YOU GET THE PRICE PERFORMANCE TO CHANGE REALLY?
00:23:17WELL, YOU NEED VOLUME. YOU NEED A CAPITALIZED SUPPLY
00:23:19CHAIN AND IN NEW WAYS OF DOING PRODUCTION. AND UNLESS YOU'RE GOING TO GO
00:23:24FROM 600 TO 2000 OR WHATEVER, THE NUMBER WILL ULTIMATELY BE, YOU DON'T ACTUALLY HAVE THE
00:23:27STIMULUS YOU NEED TO DRIVE THE INNOVATION AGAINST IT.
00:23:30AND THE STIMULUS YOU NEED TO RE CONSIDER THE CONSTRAINTS THAT
00:23:33ARE KIND OF CONGEALED SINCE
00:23:351984, IN THE PRODUCTION PROCESS. RIGHT.
00:23:38WHICH AGAIN, GETS YOU RIGHT INTO
00:23:40THE YEAR ACQUISITION PROCESS CONCEPTS. AND YOU YOU SAY YOU'RE NOT A
00:23:44YOU'RE NOT A GUY WHO THINKS THERE'S A PROCESS FIX TO EVERYTHING, BUT YOU DO SEEM TO
00:23:47THINK THERE'S A PROCESS PROBLEM TO A LOT OF THINGS. YEAH.
00:23:51I MEAN, I THINK PROCESS ENDS UP BEING A CRITICAL LIKE EVERYONE
00:23:53LIKES TO MAKE FUN OF DAVID PACKARD'S 5000 SERIES DOD
00:23:58ACQUISITION REGULATIONS. YOU KNOW, THIS IS LIKE 2000 PAGES OF ACQUISITION
00:24:02REGULATIONS. WELL, WHEN DAVID PACKARD WROTE IT, CO-FOUNDER OF HP, WHILE
00:24:04WE'RE ON THE THEME OF FOUNDERS, IT WAS SEVEN PAGES.
00:24:08SO DID DAVID PACKARD SCREW US WITH ALL THIS ACQUISITION
00:24:12REGULATION OR DID THE KIND OF ENTROPY OF THE BUREAUCRACY OVER
00:24:1660, 70 YEARS ACTUALLY JUST BUILD SOMETHING THAT IN NO WAY, SHAPE
00:24:18OR FORM RESEMBLES HIS ORIGINAL INTENT?
00:24:21AND SO, YEAH, THERE'S A LOT OF
00:24:24THE PROCESS REALLY HELPS YOU, I THINK PROCESS IN SERVICE OF A
00:24:27PRINCIPLE PROCESS IN SERVICE OF THE ARTIST, THE FOUNDER FIGURE
00:24:31THAT GIVES YOU A LOT OF SCALE PROCESS IN THE ABSENCE OF IT
00:24:35ACTUALLY, IT'S KIND OF A, IT'S A PATHOLOGY LEADS YOU TO MANAGE
00:24:39DECLINE, RIGHT? AND YOU WOULD SAY THAT IN THAT
00:24:42IN A NUMBER OF THE PRIMES THE
00:24:45MANAGED DECLINE HAS GONE FAIRLY FAR, I THINK.
00:24:48I MEAN, AND I PUT THE BLAME FOR THAT SQUARELY ON THE PRIME
00:24:52CONTRACT FOR SQUARELY AT THE AT THE FEET OF THE GOVERNMENT. YOU KNOW, IT'S LIKE IN A
00:24:56MONOPSONY, YOU KNOW, AS THE AS THE SOLE BUYER, YOU GET WHAT YOU
00:25:00PAY FOR, YOU GET WHAT YOU'RE INCENTIVIZED. WHAT ARE YOU ASKING OF THEM?
00:25:03WHAT ARE THEY SUPPOSED TO BE? YOU KNOW, IF THEY TRIED TO BE HERETICS ALL THE TIME, THEY
00:25:07WOULD HAVE GONE OUT OF BUSINESS BECAUSE THEY WOULD NOT HAVE SURVIVED THAT, YOU KNOW?
00:25:11AND SO I THINK HAVING A DEPARTMENT OF WAR, WHICH WE DO
00:25:13RIGHT NOW, THAT REALIZES THAT AND HAS BLOWN UP JAY-Z'S I MEAN
00:25:17HUDSON'S IN A LOT OF OF GREAT THOUGHT LEADERSHIP THERE THAT
00:25:20HAS BEEN IMPLEMENTED INTO POLICY
00:25:22SLASHING THE BUREAUCRACY, EMPOWERING PEOPLE IN THE IS YOU
00:25:26KNOW THERE'S OPPORTUNITY HERE. NONE OF THIS IS DONE NONE OF THIS FULLY REALIZED.
00:25:29BUT IT SETS THE CONDITIONS AND WHAT I WOULD SAY IS WE SHOULD
00:25:32EXPECT MORE VARIANCE, NOT LESS. A LOT OF THIS PROCESS AND BUREAUCRACY HAS BEEN BUILT UP TO
00:25:37TRY TO MANAGE AGAINST CATASTROPHICALLY BAD OUTCOMES.
00:25:41BUT I THINK EVEN EVEN IN THE BEST CASE, THE PROCESS
00:25:44GUARANTEES MEDIOCRITY MIGHT GUARANTEE SOMETHING LESS THAN MEDIOCRITY.
00:25:47BUT YOU BUT YOU KNOW, YOU CAN'T GET RID OF ONE END OF THE DISTRIBUTION OF OUTCOMES, WHICH
00:25:51IS ALL THE BAD OUTCOMES WITH ALL WITHOUT ALSO GETTING RID OF THE OTHER END OF THE DISTRIBUTION,
00:25:55WHICH IS ALL THE EXCEPTIONAL OUTCOMES. AND WHETHER YOU LOOK AT THE MINUTEMAN OR THE HIGGINS BOAT OR
00:26:00INVENT OR EVEN THE TANK, WHICH WAS WAS CHURCHILL'S HERESY
00:26:03AGAINST THE ARMY, THE BRITISH ARMY, YOU KNOW, THE ROYAL NAVY
00:26:08INVENTED THE TANK. CAN YOU THINK OF SOMETHING MORE CRAZY IN THAT?
00:26:11BECAUSE BECAUSE THE BRITISH ARMY DIDN'T THINK THEY WOULD NEED ANYTHING OTHER THAN HORSES, YOU
00:26:14KNOW, AND SO STORY AFTER STORY, THE SIDEWINDER WAS LIKE A ROAD
00:26:17PROJECT THAT YOU KNOW, HUMILIATED THE AIR FORCE'S
00:26:21FALCON MISSILE. IT'S LIKE WE KNOW THIS IS WHAT IT LOOKS LIKE.
00:26:26AND I THINK WE'RE FINALLY GETTING POSTURED TO TO EMPOWER
00:26:28THOSE HERETICS TO GO BE HEROES AGAIN.
00:26:30WE'VE GOT A LOT OF YOUNG PEOPLE HERE WATCHING THIS.
00:26:34WE ALSO HAVE PEOPLE REMOTELY VIEWING.
00:26:38SO HOW DOES A YOUNG PERSON LISTENING TO THIS IS INSPIRED TO SAY, OKAY, HOW DO I BECOME A
00:26:43HERETIC? HOW DO I ESCAPE THE TRAP OF CONVENTIONAL THINKING?
00:26:46WHAT WOULD YOU SUGGEST? WELL, I'LL ANSWER IT SLIGHTLY
00:26:50INDIRECTLY TO START. THEN I'LL GET RIGHT TO IT. BUT THE FIRST THING IS LIKE MAYBE A VERSION.
00:26:54THIS QUESTION IS IN A WORLD WITH
00:26:56A I WITH ALL THESE CHANGES THAT ARE HAPPENING, WHAT DO I VALUE
00:27:00MY CHILDREN LEARNING? WHAT DO I VALUE MY CHILDREN?
00:27:04PRIORITIZING OR VALUING?
00:27:06AND THAT WOULD BE AGENCY.
00:27:08YOU KNOW, IT'S NOT A SPECIFIC SKILL.
00:27:11IT'S NOT CAN YOU CODE, IT'S ACTUALLY HOW DO I CULTIVATE AGENCY IN YOU?
00:27:15A BELIEF THAT YOU CAN DO THESE THINGS, A BELIEF THAT YOU CAN CHANGE THE WORLD?
00:27:19I THINK THAT THE PEOPLE, THE
00:27:22HERETICS, ALL HAVE THIS IN SPADES. THINK ABOUT HOW CRAZY IT IS AT HYMAN RICKOVER, WHO BUILT THE
00:27:25NUCLEAR NAVY, ONE OF MY FAVORITE
00:27:28HERETICS, OPPENHEIMER TOLD HIM,
00:27:30THIS IS NOT GOING TO WORK. PUTTING A NUCLEAR REACTOR IN A
00:27:34SUBMARINE IS NOT GOING TO WORK. THINK ABOUT THE HOOD LIKE THE
00:27:36FRIEND, FATHER OF THE BOMB, ONE
00:27:39OF OUR GREATEST PHYSICISTS IN THE NATION IS TELLING YOU, WHO
00:27:42ARE YOU? SOME YOU KNOW, CAPTAIN IN THE
00:27:46NAVY AT THIS POINT THAT YOUR DREAM IS A FAILURE.
00:27:49AND HE JUST KEPT GOING. AND THAT WAS THAT WAS PROBABLY THE FIRST OF A THOUSAND
00:27:52HUMILIATIONS THAT HE HAD TO GO THROUGH. AND SO THIS IS A MAN WITH A
00:27:56TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF AGENCY.
00:27:58THE OTHER THING I'D SAY SO IF YOU REALLY WANT TO DO THIS, I
00:28:01MEAN, THE EPISTEMIC HUMILITY, WHICH I THINK IS A GOOD TOPIC IN
00:28:04THE PRESENT MOMENT, YOU HAVE TO
00:28:08MY MY ADVICE TO YOUNG PEOPLE WOULD BE TO TO RECOGNIZE THAT
00:28:11ALL THE VALUE YOU'RE GOING TO CREATE IN THE WORLD IS GOING TO COME FROM YOUR SUPERPOWER.
00:28:14THE JOURNEY YOU'RE ON AS A YOUNG PERSON IS FIGURE OUT WHAT IS THAT.
00:28:18YOU KNOW, IT'S GOING TO BE HARD TO FIGURE OUT. IT'S GOING TO BE HARD TO FIGURE
00:28:21OUT BECAUSE ACTUALLY THEY'RE GOING TO BE A SET OF THINGS YOU ACTUALLY ENJOY DOING THOSE
00:28:24THINGS YOU PROBABLY ENJOY BECAUSE THERE'S SOME EFFORT IN
00:28:28FIGURING IT OUT AND YOU GET A LITTLE DOPAMINE HIT WHEN YOU SOLVE THE PROBLEM.
00:28:31BUT BECAUSE ACTUALLY THAT DOPAMINE HIT BELIES THE FACT
00:28:33THAT IT'S PROBABLY NOT YOUR SUPERPOWER, IT ACTUALLY REQUIRED EFFORT. YOUR SUPERPOWER IS GOING TO BE
00:28:38SOMETHING THAT'S MORE LIZARD BRAIN.
00:28:39IT'S JUST INSTINCTIVELY OBVIOUS
00:28:43TO YOU AND YOU'RE GOING TO DISCOVER IT COMPARATIVELY. YOU'RE GOING TO LOOK AROUND TO
00:28:46OTHER PEOPLE WHO ARE AS TALENTED OR MORE TALENTED THAN YOU. YOU'RE GOING TO BE LIKE, OH,
00:28:49THEY STRUGGLE WITH THIS. AND THAT SUPERPOWER IS REALLY
00:28:53WHERE YOU HAVE TO FOCUS. BUT THERE'S A FLIPSIDE TO THE SUPERPOWER, WHICH IS YOUR KRYPTONITE.
00:28:57YOU KNOW, THE CONVENTIONAL WISDOM THAT WE LIKED IT. AND I THINK IT'S ACTUALLY THE RIGHT WAY TO EDUCATE YOUNG
00:29:01PEOPLE, WHICH IS, YOU KNOW, WORK ON YOUR WEAKNESSES BECAUSE IT'S TOO EARLY TO CALL TO CALL IT,
00:29:04YOU KNOW, PREMATURE. BUT YOU KNOW WHAT?
00:29:07WE'RE SUPERMAN STRATEGY FOR DEALING WITH KRYPTONITE.
00:29:12NOTHING EXCEPT FOR AVOIDING IT.
00:29:12AND SO HAVING THE HUMILITY TO
00:29:16SAY LIKE, YOU KNOW, THERE ARE SOME THINGS I'M JUST SO BAD AT. I SHOULDN'T TOUCH. I NEED TO FIND PARTNERS AND I
00:29:19NEED TO WORK WITH OTHER PEOPLE WHO HAVE THESE SKILLS. AND RECOGNIZING THIS IS WHY I
00:29:23LIKE THE METAPHOR OF X-MEN MORE THAN SUPERMAN. SUPERMAN. IT SEEMS LIKE THE WHOLE THING IS
00:29:27JUST HIM. THE X-MEN WERE ALL HIGHLY IMPERFECT HUMANS IN THEIR OWN
00:29:31SORT OF WAY, AND THE THING KIND OF WORKED IN AGGREGATE AND THAT
00:29:37WOULD BE MY ADVICE TO THEM. A LITTLE OFF TOPIC, BUT SINCE,
00:29:40YOU KNOW, I THINK IT'S LOOK, I THINK THAT, YOU KNOW, YOUR YOUR
00:29:44BOOK IS REALLY ABOUT HOW TO HOW A NATION OF HERETICS CAN DIG
00:29:48ITSELF OUT OF THE HOLE. YEAH.
00:29:50AND SO TRYING TO HELP YOUNG PEOPLE FIGURE OUT HOW DO I JOIN
00:29:54THE DIGGING OUT TEAM RATHER THAN
00:29:56THE DIGGING IN TEAM IS VERY CENTRAL.
00:30:00YOU SAY DETERRENCE IS FAILED.
00:30:03YOU TALK ABOUT STOPPING WORLD WAR THREE. I THINK THAT'S WORTH GETTING
00:30:06INTO A BIT AS A CONCEPT. YEAH.
00:30:08YOU KNOW, HOPEFULLY FOR THIS AUDIENCE.
00:30:11BUT IT DOESN'T NEED TO BE SAID. BUT OF COURSE THAT THE ENTIRE
00:30:15OBJECTIVE OF THE DEPARTMENT OF WAR IS TO DETER CONFLICT.
00:30:18IT'S TO BE SO STRONG AND TO
00:30:20CREATE SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY OR A
00:30:22CERTAIN LOSS FOR THE ENEMY, THE ADVERSARY THAT THEY DO NOT EVEN
00:30:26CONTEMPLATE DOING THIS BECAUSE IT JUST IS OBVIOUS LOSER.
00:30:30AND YOU CAN THINK ABOUT THE THE DIMENSIONS IN WHICH EVERYTHING I
00:30:32CITED THERE SHOWS YOU THAT THERE'S NOT ENOUGH FEAR.
00:30:36ONE CLEAR ELEMENT OF THIS IS OUR
00:30:40ABILITY TO PRODUCE THINGS. YOU KNOW, IF YOU THOUGHT ABOUT A
00:30:42CHINA FIGHT, PEOPLE ESTIMATE WE MAYBE HAVE EIGHT DAYS OF WEAPONS
00:30:46ON HAND. WELL, WHAT WHAT THEY ARE WE IN THE IRAN CONFLICT, YOU KNOW, YOU
00:30:49NEED TO HAVE 800 DAYS OF WEAPONS ON HAND, NOT ONLY DO YOU NEED
00:30:53HAVE 800 DAYS WEAPONS ON HAND, YOU CAN YOU HAVE ABILITY TO REGENERATE THOSE 800 DAYS OF
00:30:56WEAPONS INSIDE AN ENVELOPE OF EXECUTION. THAT MEANS YOU CAN SUSTAIN
00:31:00DETERRENCE. AND I THINK WE JUST GOT A LOT OF THE MATH WRONG.
00:31:03WE KIND OF BECAME BEAN COUNTERS. WE SAID LIKE, WELL, WE'RE NOT USING THESE WEAPONS.
00:31:06YOU KNOW, MAYBE WE SHOULDN'T BE PRODUCING THEM. HOW DO WE JUST SUSTAIN
00:31:10EVERYTHING AT THE MINIMUM RATE OF PRODUCTION?
00:31:12AND ALL OF THIS SCREWS OVER THE
00:31:14THE CONCEPT THAT INNOVATION IS A
00:31:17CONSEQUENCE OF PRODUCTIVITY.
00:31:19THE ANALOGY IS, I DIDN'T DO THIS EARLIER, BUT I THINK IT'S WORTH
00:31:22SHARING IS GREAT FOR DUTY, FOR A TECH CROWD IS LIKE THE WAY I COMMUNICATE THIS INNOVATION IS THE CONSEQUENCE OF PRODUCTIVITY
00:31:27TO TO FOLKS IN SILICON VALLEY IS
00:31:30WHAT DO YOU THINK MOTIVATED THE
00:31:32GOOGLE RESEARCHERS IN 2017 TO WRITE THE ATTENTION IS ALL YOU NEED. PAPER THAT LED TO THE
00:31:36TRANSFORMER REVOLUTION AND THE CURRENT A.I. IT WAS IT WAS A
00:31:40DESIRE TO GET A 3% INCREMENT, LITTLE IMPROVEMENT IN THE PERFORMANCE OF GOOGLE TRANSLATE.
00:31:44YOU CANNOT THINK OF A MORE BANAL
00:31:48IMPETUS LEADING TO A MORE PROFOUND CHANGE. BUT I THINK ACTUALLY A LOT OF
00:31:51PROFOUND CHANGES START WITH A BANAL IMPETUS.
00:31:56OKAY, WHAT WE SEE THIS BACKLASH
00:32:01ON AGAINST TECH, AGAINST AI AND
00:32:05IT SEEMS TO BE FIND IT ON THE LEFT. YOU FIND IT ON THE RIGHT, YOU
00:32:07FIND IT AMONG CULTURAL CONSERVATIVES, YOU FIND IT AMONG
00:32:11LIBERALS. YOU THINK THIS IS PROFOUNDLY
00:32:15MISTAKEN. AND YOU ARGUE VERY STRONGLY THAT IT IS.
00:32:18WHY ARE THESE PEOPLE WRONG AND
00:32:20WHY ACTUALLY DO WE NEED A I?
00:32:23WHY WILL I HELP THE AVERAGE PERSON? WELL, I THINK THE AMERICAN
00:32:26PEOPLE ARE BEING LIED TO ABOUT A.I. PART OF IT, IT STARTS WITH WHO ARE THEY LISTENING TO, WHO'S OUT
00:32:30THERE AND SAYING THIS STUFF? IT'S THE INVENTORS, NOT THE
00:32:32WIELDERS, THE INVENTORS. FIRST OF ALL, DO YOU HAVE KIND
00:32:35OF A RELIGIOUS AND THAT'S THE RIGHT WORD CONVICTION THAT THEY
00:32:38ARE BUILDING A GOD, THAT THAT'S WHAT AGI IS TO THEM.
00:32:42AND SO, YOU KNOW THAT THE PASCAL SHAPED PASCAL WAS EITHER GOD
00:32:45SHAPED HOLE IN THEIR HEART IS BEING FILLED WITH THIS AND THAT
00:32:48LEADS TO A SERIES OF CONCLUSIONS THAT I THINK ARE FAITH BASED.
00:32:51THERE'S ACTUALLY NO EMPIRICAL BASIS TO SAY THESE THINGS. BUT IF YOU HAVE THIS AS A GOD,
00:32:56THEN YOU BELIEVE IT WILL LEAD TO 50% WHITE COLLAR JOB LOSS INSIDE
00:32:59OF A YEAR OR SO. BUT, YOU KNOW, THESE PEOPLE SEEM SO SMART, SO PEOPLE ARE
00:33:03LISTENING ON THE OTHER END, THEN YOU HAVE WHAT IS THE EMPIRICAL
00:33:07EXPERIENCE FOR MOST MOST AMERICANS WITH AI, IT'S MOSTLY I
00:33:11SLOP, YOU KNOW, OR SOME VERSION OF GAMBLING.
00:33:13SO ON ONE HAND, THESE PEOPLE ARE SAYING IT'S GOING TO END
00:33:17HUMANITY OR CERTAINLY MAKE MAKE OUR IMPOVERISH US. AND ON THE OTHER END, YOU CAN'T
00:33:21SEE ANYTHING BUT VICE IN TERMS OF ITS APPLICATION AND IN YOUR CONSUMER LIFE.
00:33:26SO THIS IS THIS IS SUPER DEPRESSING AND THEN YOU START WONDERING, YOU KNOW, ISN'T THE
00:33:30ISN'T THIS THE PRECONDITION FOR SOMETHING LIKE THE FRENCH REVOLUTION, LIKE, WHY WOULD
00:33:33RATIONAL HUMANS JUST SAY, I'M JUST GOING TO SIT HERE AND LET THIS HAPPEN?
00:33:36AND I THINK THE REACTION IS THEY'RE NOT THEY'RE NOT GOING TO SIT HERE AND GET THIS HAPPEN.
00:33:40AND WHAT I WANT TO MAKE THE CASE IS THE CASE THAT I SEE EVERY DAY
00:33:43OUT ON THE FRONT LINES FROM THE FACTORY FLOOR TO THE THE ICU
00:33:47BEDS IS LIKE ACTUALLY THIS IS HAVING A PROFOUND IMPACT ON THE
00:33:51PRODUCTIVITY OF PEOPLE. IT IS IMPROVING THEIR JOBS AND IT'S CREATING BENEFIT FOR THE
00:33:55AMERICAN PEOPLE. AND I THINK WE THEN NEED A NORMATIVE VIEW ON TOP OF THAT,
00:33:58WHICH IS THAT THE AMERICAN
00:34:00WORKER DESERVES A PRODUCTIVITY DIVIDEND THROUGH THE APPLICATION
00:34:04OF BY, YOU KNOW, ROUGHLY IN THE 70S, THERE WAS A PROFOUND BREAK
00:34:07BETWEEN WAGE GROWTH AND GDP GROWTH.
00:34:10WAGE GROWTH STAGNATED A IS AN OPPORTUNITY TO REESTABLISH THAT
00:34:14LINKAGE THAT AS PRODUCTIVITY IS REALIZED, WE NEED TO MAKE SURE
00:34:16AS A SOCIETY THAT PRODUCTIVITY BENEFITS THE WORKER, IT MUST
00:34:20RESULT IN WAGE GROWTH.
00:34:22SO THAT'S YOU KNOW, IT WOULD BE
00:34:25A TRAVESTY TO LOSE THIS THIS
00:34:29ALMOST DEUS EX MACHINA LIKE
00:34:31ADVANTAGE THAT IS AN AMERICAN PHENOMENON. YOU KNOW, YOU PEOPLE LOOK AND
00:34:35THEY SEE THE CHINESE HAVE THESE MODELS, THOSE MODELS WERE ESSENTIALLY STOLEN THROUGH
00:34:39DISTILLATION. IT IS NOT A CHINA. IT'S NOT. IT'S NOT. IT IS SOMETHING THAT CAME OUT OF
00:34:43A 50 MILE RADIUS OF THE BAY AREA
00:34:46THAT IS AN AMERICAN PHENOMENON AND THAT WE THAT WE SHOULD NOT
00:34:49TURN OUR BACK ON. AND A LOT OF WHAT YOU'RE SAYING
00:34:54IS THAT AMERICA HAS A COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE, NOT JUST IN THE DEVELOPMENT, BUT IN THE
00:34:59IMPLEMENTS, ASIAN USE AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF AI OVER OTHER COUNTRIES.
00:35:04WHAT'S THE SOURCE OF THAT ADVANTAGE AND HOW IMPORTANT IS
00:35:08IT? THE ADVANTAGE IS DETERMINATIVE AND I THINK THERE'S REALLY TWO
00:35:11PIECES OF IT AS IT RELATES TO. THE FIRST IS JUST A PROFOUND CULTURE.
00:35:15ALL CURRENT OF AMERICA. YOU KNOW, IT'S LIKE THE POPULAR
00:35:19NARRATIVE IS SOMETHING LIKE, YOU
00:35:21KNOW, THE SILICON VALLEY CULTURE COMES FROM THE GOLD RUSH.
00:35:24THIS SORT OF FRONTIER SPIRIT OF SO OF CALIFORNIA.
00:35:28I DON'T THINK THAT'S RIGHT. ACTUALLY, THE MODERN SILICON VALLEY CULTURE THAT'S LED TO ALL
00:35:30THIS CREATION, IT CAME FROM IOWA, CAME FROM BOB NOYCE.
00:35:35THE INVENTOR OF THE TRANSISTOR, CO-FOUNDER OF INTEL.
00:35:39YOU KNOW, NOYCE IS LITERALLY THE GUY WHO CAME UP WITH THE TERM OPEN DOOR POLICY.
00:35:43AND AND IT'S ROOTED IN
00:35:45MIDWESTERN VALUES AROUND PLAYING POSITIVE.
00:35:48SOME GAMES OPEN COMMUNICATION, TRANSPARENCY AND ABILITY TO
00:35:52SUSTAIN THOSE POSITIVE. SOME GAMES OVER LONG PERIODS OF TIME.
00:35:55NOYCE WAS THE FIRST EMPLOYER IN SILICON VALLEY WHO GAVE EVEN HIS
00:35:58SECRETARY EQUITY. YOU KNOW, THERE'S THERE'S A LOT
00:36:01IN THAT SORT OF THAT SORT OF
00:36:04IDEAL, THIS SORT OF VALUE SYSTEM. NOW, YOU COULD YOU COULD SAY,
00:36:08LOOK, ISN'T IT KIND OF WEIRD THAT THERE ARE ZERO INDIAN OR
00:36:11CHINESE ENTERPRISE SOFTWARE COMPANIES THAT ARE COMPETITIVE ON THE WORLD STAGE?
00:36:15THOSE CULTURES DO SOFTWARE, BUT THEY DON'T DO SOFTWARE
00:36:18COMPANIES. AND SO THAT IS NOT A TECHNICAL SKILL.
00:36:21IT IS A CULTURAL CAPABILITY THAT I THINK IS UNIQUELY PRESENT IN
00:36:25AMERICA. THE SECOND PART OF AI IS THAT
00:36:28THAT IS PROBABLY MORE UNIQUE IN OUR ABILITY.
00:36:31IT IS AMBITION IN THE COMPANIES
00:36:35THAT ARE SUCCEEDING. AND I THINK THE MILITARY IS THE ULTIMATE EXPRESSION OF THIS. BUT THE COMPANIES THAT ARE
00:36:39SUCCEEDING IN ADOPTING AI, THEY DON'T HAVE LANE GOALS LIKE, HEY, I WANT TO BE MORE EFFICIENT.
00:36:43I'VE NEVER HAD A CUSTOMER COME TO ME SAY LIKE, I WANT TO FIRE THESE PEOPLE.
00:36:46THEY SAY, I WANT TO DOMINATE MY INDUSTRY.
00:36:48I WANT TO REWRITE THE RULES OF THIS SEGMENT.
00:36:51THERE'S THERE'S THERE'S AMBITION. I THINK THAT SORT OF AMBITION IS
00:36:55UNIQUELY AMERICAN. THAT IS, IT IS MANIFEST DESTINY THROUGH ANOTHER MEANS ALTOGETHER.
00:36:58AND THEN THE CAPITALIST CONTEXT. AND I THINK IF YOU GO TO A LOT OF OTHER COUNTRIES, THE AMBITION
00:37:02IS MUCH MORE INCREMENTAL. IT'S LACKING. IT'S LIKE, HEY, I JUST WANT TO
00:37:06DO SOMETHING SAFE AND I THINK THAT'S IS EXPLAINING A LOT OF
00:37:09THE GROWTH AND OPPORTUNITY THAT
00:37:12WE HAVE RIGHT NOW AND WHY I'M SO OPTIMISTIC THAT WE WILL SUCCEED
00:37:14IN RE INDUSTRIALIZATION. WHEN YOU LOOK AT CHINESE TECH
00:37:18COMPANIES AND CHINESE TECH
00:37:20CAPABILITIES, THESE WHERE DO YOU
00:37:23SEE GAINS THAT WE REALLY NEED TO
00:37:25WORRY ABOUT GAINS WHERE THEY
00:37:27MIGHT BE CHALLENGING THIS EDGE THAT WE HAVE AND WHERE DO YOU
00:37:30SEE SORT OF AN ENDURING SOURCE OF STRENGTH THAT THAT MAYBE
00:37:34GIVES MAKES YOU OPTIMISTIC THAT WILL WIN? YEAH.
00:37:38WELL, DON'T UNDERESTIMATE THE CHINESE. LIKE ONE OF ONE OF THE THINGS THAT WE TALK ABOUT IN THE BOOK
00:37:42IS I DON'T LIKE THE TERM NEAR PURE.
00:37:45IT COMPLETELY LETS US OFF THE HOOK. IT'S IT'S KIND OF A SHIBBOLETH.
00:37:49WE GET TO PRETEND LIKE, OH, WE'RE STILL IN THE LEAD. AND YES, YOU'VE ALREADY HEARD MY
00:37:52OPINION THAT WE ARE THE BEST MILITARY IN THE WORLD THAT I THINK THAT'S A TRUE STATEMENT.
00:37:56BUT I THINK WE WOULD BE BETTER OFF THINKING OF THE CHINESE AS A PURE ADVERSARY.
00:37:59AND THEY ARE VERY GOOD AT FAST FOLLOWING, BUT THAT DOESN'T MEAN
00:38:03THEY'RE NOT GOOD TO INNOVATION BECAUSE OF EVERYTHING I JUST TALKED ABOUT, WHICH IS THAT INNOVATION IS A CONSEQUENCE OF
00:38:08PRODUCTIVITY. SO NOW, WITHOUT HAVING TO SPEND THE TIME AND CAPITAL TO GET TO
00:38:11WHERE WE ARE, THEY'RE ABLE TO GET THERE VERY QUICKLY THROUGH
00:38:13OTHER MEANS. WE'LL LEAVE THAT UNSAID AND THEN ATTEMPT THAT CREATES MORE
00:38:19DILEMMAS FOR US. IT REDUCES THE GAP OR INCREASES HOW MUCH WE HAVE TO SPEND IN R&D
00:38:23INCREASES THE THE CALORIES WE HAVE TO SPEND IN TRYING TO STAY AHEAD.
00:38:26AND THEN THERE ARE, YOU KNOW,
00:38:28MOST NECESSITIES. THE MOTHER OF INVENTION, WHEN
00:38:31YOU LOOK AT SOMETHING LIKE DEEP SEA, EVEN THOUGH IT IS THE RESULT OF DISTILLATION BECAUSE
00:38:35THEY HAVE INFERIOR GPUS, THEY HAD TO DO ALL SORTS OF LEGITIMATELY CLEVER
00:38:39OPTIMIZATION. ALL RIGHT.
00:38:41AND SO THE STIMULUS WE'RE CREATING FOR THEM IS ALSO GOING
00:38:44TO CAUSE THEM TO INNOVATE IN OTHER WAYS THAT POSE CHALLENGES FOR US.
00:38:48NOW, I DON'T THINK WE SHOULD REDUCE THOSE STIMULUSES. SO LIKE, I THINK THAT WOULD ALSO
00:38:51THAT'S A DIFFERENT FORM OF SUICIDE, BUT IT WILL HAVE CONSEQUENCES.
00:38:56YEAH. CAN WE IN SOME WAY? OKAY. YOU SEE SOMETHING LIKE DEEP SEA
00:38:59COMES OUT AND. ALL RIGHT, THERE'S CLEVER OPTIMIZATIONS AND SO ON.
00:39:03CAN WE THEN FEED THAT BACK INTO HOW WE WORK?
00:39:05YEAH, ABSOLUTELY. IF YOU'RE GOING TO FASTBALL LOW, WE SHOULD DO. YEAH.
00:39:09AND PEOPLE ARE DOING THAT. PEOPLE ARE DOING THAT.
00:39:12WHAT WHAT WOULD YOU SAY? YOU KNOW, YOU THINK ABOUT YOU
00:39:15TALK ABOUT THE NEED TO REALLY,
00:39:18YOU KNOW, SURGE IN PROCUREMENT
00:39:21AND SO ON IN ORDER TO GET THE VOLUME THAT WILL REALLY CAUSE THE INNOVATION, THE
00:39:26TRANSFORMATION THAT'S NEEDED. WHAT KIND OF SURGE IN THE DEFENSE BUDGET DO YOU THINK IS NEEDED?
00:39:31IS IT AN OVERALL SURGE? IS IT A REALLOCATION OF EXISTING FUNDS?
00:39:35HOW SHOULD WE BE THINKING ABOUT THIS? I THINK THE I THINK THE PRESIDENT IS THINKING ABOUT THIS
00:39:39CORRECTLY. SO HERE'S A PLACE THAT I THINK I HAVE BEEN WRONG OVER THE LAST LITTLE BIT.
00:39:43I'VE SAID WE DON'T NEED MORE MONEY. MAYBE WE ACTUALLY NEED LESS MONEY. YEAH.
00:39:47AND I THINK THERE'S SOME TRUTH TO THAT. IF YOU HAD SOME SORT OF MAGICAL
00:39:50WAND TO ELIMINATE HUMAN FEELING AND EMOTION AND COULD JUST
00:39:55REALLOCATE THE MONEY, BUT THAT'S NOT REALITY. AND I THINK GOING BACK TO THIS
00:39:59EXAMPLE OF, HEY, WE NEEDED TO BUILD 154 AIRFRAMES TO GET THE TEN THAT WE NEEDED.
00:40:03THERE. THIS BOLUS IN SURGE, ACTUALLY YOU NEED MORE CHAOS, YOU NEED
00:40:07MORE INVESTMENT, MAYBE EVEN OVER INVESTMENT TO FIGURE OUT HOW TO
00:40:10GET THE THINGS TO WORK THEY NEED TO WORK. THAT GIVES YOU THE OPPORTUNITY TO PARE BACK IN THE FUTURE.
00:40:14RIGHT. AND SO I THINK, YOU KNOW, THE
00:40:171.5 TRILLION TOP LINE IS ROUGHLY LIKE RIGHT. THE THING THAT WE ALSO NEED IS LESS TIME.
00:40:21WE NEED TO GIVE OURSELVES LESS TIME TO DELIVER OUT OUTCOMES
00:40:25THAT THAT IS OFTEN, YOU KNOW,
00:40:27WHY WOULD YOU TOLERATE SOMEONE AS DIFFICULT?
00:40:30WE FIRED EDWARD HALL ONCE BEFORE BRINGING HIM BEFORE SCHREIBER BROUGHT HIM BACK TO FINISH UP
00:40:34THE MINUTEMAN. WHY WOULD YOU TOLERATE SOMEONE WHO IS NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT?
00:40:37EDWARD HALL, IF YOU WEREN'T STARING DOWN THE BARREL OF THE SOVIETS GETTING TO AN ICBM
00:40:40BEFORE YOU WITH MORE CAPABILITY, IT'S, YOU KNOW, SOMEHOW WE HAVE
00:40:45BEEN BECOME INURED TO SOME OF THESE FACTS, WHICH IS WHY I THINK THE PURE ADVERSARY
00:40:48COMMENTS IMPORTANT. YOU KNOW, I THOUGH OVER THE LAST
00:40:51PROBABLY FOUR YEARS, WE SHOULD HAVE HAD FOUR DIFFERENT SPUTNIK MOMENTS. WELL, WE'VE HAD NONE.
00:40:55YOU KNOW, EVEN THOUGH THEY ARE LEGITIMATELY SPUTNIK MOMENTS. AND SO HOW IS IT THE SPUTNIK
00:41:00MOMENT CATALYZED SUCH CLARITY IN
00:41:02THE MIND OF THE AMERICAN PEOPLE? AND WE'VE HAD FOR THAT WE CAN'T
00:41:06SEEM TO GRIP WHAT ARE THE FOUR
00:41:09CHINESE HYPERSONIC GLIDE VEHICLE
00:41:11THE ABILITY FOR THE RUSSIANS TO
00:41:14SUSTAIN THE FIGHT AS LONG AS THEY'VE HAD HERE?
00:41:19THE ASYMMETRIC ABILITY FOR
00:41:23PEOPLE LIKE THE HOUTHIES TO HOLD. SO MUCH OF NOT ONLY WORLD TRADE,
00:41:26BUT OUR ASSETS AT RISK AND THEN
00:41:31THE YOU KNOW, THE TEN YEARS OF
00:41:35CONSUMPTION IN TEN WEEKS THAT EFFECTIVELY WE'VE GOTTEN THE
00:41:37MATH COMPLETELY WRONG. THAT HAS A LOT OF IMPLICATIONS. I GET AN EXAMPLE OF THIS STUFF
00:41:42IS AND TO THE POINT THAT WE MAY NOT BE SPENDING ENOUGH, IF YOU'RE GOING TO MAKE MUNITIONS,
00:41:45WE SHOULD BE TREATING ALL OF THESE MUSICIANS WITH THAT POTENTIALLY EVEN OUR EXQUISITE
00:41:49MUNITIONS AS CONSUMABLES.
00:41:50THEY'RE NOT PIECES OF ART THAT YOU PUT ON THE SHELF AND YOU MAKE SURE AND TEMPERATURE
00:41:55CONTROLLED SETTINGS YOU MAKE IT AT THE POINT OF MAKING IT.
00:41:58YOU ALREADY HAVE A PLAN OF HOW YOU'RE GOING TO CONSUME IT AND TEST.
00:42:01AND THAT MEANS THAT YOU'RE GOING TO HAVE TO MAKE ANOTHER ONE TO REPLACE IT, WHICH DRIVES THE
00:42:05STIMULUS, THE INDUSTRY TO KEEP GOING AND AN OPPORTUNITY TO
00:42:07DRIVE COMPETITION.
00:42:09AND NEW ENTRANTS HAVE SOME SORT
00:42:11OF FOOTING TO GO GET WORK AND
00:42:13THIS IS WHERE YOU THIS PART OF
00:42:15IT IS A CONSEQUENCE, OKAY? IF YOU'RE GOING TO BE A
00:42:19MONOPSONY, WHICH IS REALITY, THIS IS WHERE YOU'RE GOING TO HAVE TO ADAPT TO IN ORDER TO OVERCOME THE PATHOLOGIES THAT
00:42:23ARE THAT COME FROM BEING A MONOPSONY. SO YOU REALLY TALKING ABOUT A
00:42:26SPATE OF SPENDING THAT IS JUST SO GREAT THAT IT KIND OF WASHES
00:42:30AWAY A LOT OF THESE OBSTACLES AND FORCES A NEW LOOK.
00:42:33NOW I KNOW I DON'T KNOW HOW MANY
00:42:36BUDGET HAWKS WE HAVE AT HUDSON, BUT I KNOW PLENTY OF BUDGET AND
00:42:39DEFICIT HAWKS OUT THERE WHO ARE PROBABLY GETTING GREAT
00:42:43INDIGESTION AT THIS MOMENT AND WOULD SAY, YOU KNOW, WE CAN'T DO
00:42:47IT OR WE SHOULDN'T DO THAT KIND OF SPENDING. WHAT'S YOUR RESPONSE?
00:42:51WELL, I SHARE THOSE CONCERNS. I'M ACTUALLY VERY FISCALLY CONSERVATIVE, AND I WOULD
00:42:55STRONGLY PREFER A BALANCED BUDGET. AND I WOULD LIKE TO WORK THESE THINGS OUT.
00:42:58BUT I THINK WE'RE STUCK BETWEEN A ROCK AND A HARD PLACE THAT
00:43:00THAT THE REALITY IS THAT, YOU
00:43:02KNOW, ARE DEFICIT DOESN'T REALLY MATTER IF WE DON'T HAVE A
00:43:06COUNTRY. AND SO WE'VE GOT TO SOLVE THAT PROBLEM FIRST AND THEN WE'RE
00:43:10GOING HAVE TO FIGURE OUT THESE OTHER PIECES AS WE GO ALONG. OKAY.
00:43:14NOW, I THINK ANOTHER ARGUMENT WE MAKE IN THE BOOK THAT IS IMPORTANT IS LIKE WE'VE LOST THE
00:43:17PLOT ON HOW NATIONAL SECURITY IS
00:43:20THE OTHER SIDE OF THE COIN OF PROSPERITY AND THAT YOU NEED TO
00:43:24GET THESE THINGS TO WORK TOGETHER.
00:43:26IF YOU THINK ABOUT FAIRCHILD AND
00:43:28I THINK IN 68, 69, 96% OF ALL
00:43:31THE INTEGRATED CIRCUITS, THEY PRODUCED WENT TO APOLLO. THERE WAS ONE CUSTOMER IN THE
00:43:35ENTIRE WORLD FOR AN INTEGRATED CIRCUIT, AND IT WAS THE MISSION TO THE MOON.
00:43:41BUT NOYCE, WHO WAS AT FAIRCHILD AT THE TIME, WOULD NOT LET THE
00:43:43AIR FORCE PM TELL HIM WHAT TO DO
00:43:47IN TERMS OF R&D. I INVENTED THE TRANSISTOR, WAS HIS RETORT.
00:43:51LIKE, WHO ARE YOU TO TELL ME WHAT I SHOULD BE INVESTING MY R&D? AND HE NEVER TOOK MORE THAN 4%
00:43:55OF HIS R&D BUDGET FROM THE GOVERNMENT SO THAT HE COULD BE
00:43:59IN CONTROL OF IT. HE DIDN'T HAVE TO LISTEN TO ANYONE ELSE. THIS WAS CRITICAL, NOT ONLY TO
00:44:03THE FUTURE PROSPERITY OF AMERICA, THE ABILITY FOR US TO
00:44:06BUILD THE MICROCHIP INDUSTRY, BUT ALSO IN RETURN BACK TO THE
00:44:11GOVERNMENT. SO AS THINKER ONE, WHICH WAS OUR ANSWER TO THE VAST SOVIET
00:44:15QUANTITIES AMMUNITION PRODUCE, THE SOVIETS MADE SO MANY MUNITIONS, OUR THING WAS LIKE, WE'RE NOT GOING TO COMPETE WITH
00:44:20THEM ON QUANTITY. WE'RE GOING TO BE ON QUALITY. WE'RE GOING TO INVENT PRECISION, PRECISION GUIDED MUNITIONS.
00:44:23WE HAVE MANY FEWER IMMEDIATE MISSIONS, BUT THEY'RE ACTUALLY GOING TO GO WHERE THEY'RE SUPPOSED TO GO.
00:44:26PEOPLE FORGET THAT IN WORLD WAR TWO, ONLY 6% OF BOMBS DROPPED. ACTUALLY HIT THEIR INTENDED
00:44:31TARGET. YOU KNOW, IN THE PREP FIRES FOR NORMANDY, WE KILLED ROUGHLY 50,000 FRENCH CIVILIANS.
00:44:34YOU KNOW, THAT'S HOW IMPRECISE THESE THINGS WERE. WELL, THAT COST PERFORMANCE WAS
00:44:38ONLY POSSIBLE BECAUSE OF MOORE'S
00:44:40LAW FROM THIS FROM THE 60S TO THE 80S MEANT THAT WE COULD PUT
00:44:43THESE MICROPROCESSOR LASERS AND LITERALLY EVERY MUNITION WE EVER BUILT.
00:44:47AND THAT GAVE US, YOU KNOW, A LOT OF NATIONAL SECURITY.
00:44:51NOW, WE COULD ALSO LOOK AT THE INVERSE WHERE WE HAVE TOTALLY CEDED THE LEAD.
00:44:55WE INVENTED THE DRONE, THE PREDATOR WAS THAT THAT'S REALLY
00:44:58AN AMERICAN SCALED INVENTION.
00:45:02BUT WE GOT IN OUR OWN WAY, WE WE
00:45:05VIEWED THE DRONE AS AN ITEM. WE'D SAY THIS IS A FLYING MISSILE.
00:45:09AND THEN THE FAA DOMESTICALLY SAID, NO, NO TO BEYOND LINE OF
00:45:12SIGHT OPERATIONS. SO YOU BASICALLY KILLED ANY
00:45:16COMMERCIAL UTILITY OUT OF THIS INVENTION OUT THE GATE.
00:45:18BUT OF COURSE, IF YOU HAD COMMERCIAL UTILITY, DJI WOULD
00:45:22NOT EXIST. DJI WOULD BE AN AMERICAN COMPANY. IT MIGHT BE A SUBSIDIARY OF
00:45:25GENERAL ATOMICS, IT MIGHT BE SOMETHING THEY SPUN OUT ALTOGETHER. ALL THAT PROSPERITY WOULD BE HERE.
00:45:29AND IN RETURN FOR THAT PROSPERITY, THE PRICE PERFORMANCE THAT WE NOW STRUGGLE
00:45:33TO GET OUT OF OUR DRONE INDUSTRY WOULD BE AN AMERICAN PHENOMENON
00:45:35THAT THE MILITARY COULD BENEFIT FROM. WE'VE TALKED ABOUT AND I WANT TO
00:45:40TURN IT OVER TO THE AUDIENCE FOR A FEW QUESTIONS AT THE END.
00:45:42BUT WE'VE TALKED ABOUT THIS
00:45:4410,000 DRONE TARGET FOR TAIWAN.
00:45:46I GUESS, HOW CLOSE ARE WE?
00:45:49ARE WE TO REACHING IT?
00:45:51AND WHAT, IF ANYTHING, ELSE, DO WE NEED TO DO TO GET THERE AND
00:45:54WHEN DO WE GET THERE? WELL, I HAVE A LOT OF CONFIDENCE
00:45:57THAT THE PRESENT TEAM IS GOING TO GET THERE. I WOULD VIEW THE 10,000 DRONE
00:46:00TARGET AS A STARTING POINT. RIGHT. YOU THINK ABOUT THE UKRAINIAN
00:46:04PRODUCTION THIS YEAR IS GOING TO BE 6 MILLION DRONES.
00:46:07SO LET'S PUT STRUGGLING FOR 10,000, HOPEFULLY FOR NOT MUCH LONGER.
00:46:11YOU KNOW, I THINK A BOLUS OF ENERGY INVESTMENT TO THE POINT
00:46:15OF THERE IS NO PROCESS. ONLY PEOPLE. I THINK WE HAVE THE RIGHT PEOPLE
00:46:18DRIVING THIS THING NOW. AND I'M VERY OPTIMISTIC THAT
00:46:21WE'RE GOING TO GET THERE NOW. AND THIS IS BIG A BIG PART OF
00:46:24MAYBE THE AMERICAN PHENOMENON IS, YOU KNOW, WE TEND TO GET OUR
00:46:27-- KICKED IN THE FIRST, THIRD OR FIRST HALF BEFORE WE GET OUR STUFF TOGETHER AND THEY START
00:46:30WINNING AND I THINK WE'RE IN THE WE'RE ABOUT TO START WINNING PHASE OF THIS.
00:46:34WELL, GREAT. ON THAT NOTE, I THINK THIS IS A
00:46:37GREAT MOMENT TO TURN IT OVER TO THE AUDIENCE.
00:46:39PLEASE IDENTIFY FOR YOURSELF. AND REMEMBER, YOU'RE GOING TO
00:46:43ASK A QUESTION WHICH IS A SHORT,
00:46:45SHORT INTERROGATIVE OF SENTENCE,
00:46:48ENDING WITH A QUESTION MARK. YES, SIR.
00:46:51WE HAVE A MICROPHONE HERE. HELLO.
00:46:57AND AND CAN YOU FILL ME IS TO BE
00:46:59WITH NIKITA VERY EXCITED TO JOIN
00:47:01HUDSON FROM NEXT MONTH. I WAS VERY INTERESTED IN HOW YOU
00:47:05SAID THAT NOTHING HAS RESTORED
00:47:07DETERRENCE AS MUCH AS THE THEY'D HAVE.
00:47:09AND THE MADURO OPERATION. I WANTED TO COMPARE THAT WITH
00:47:13THE WITHDRAWAL FROM AFGHANISTAN,
00:47:15WHICH I THINK HURT AMERICAN DETERRENCE.
00:47:17BUT THE WHOLE IDEA OF THE
00:47:19AFGHANISTAN WITHDRAWAL WAS TO
00:47:22SAVE AMERICAN ASSETS AND
00:47:24MUNITION FOR THE CHAIN OF FIGHT.
00:47:26DO YOU BELIEVE AT THIS STAGE IT
00:47:30IS MORE IMPORTANT FOR AMERICA TO FINISH THE JOB IN IRAN FOR
00:47:33DETERRENCE RATHER THAN SAVE THE MUNITIONS FOR A FUTURE?
00:47:37FIND A CHAIN FIGHT? WELL, I THINK NO MATTER WHAT, EVEN EVEN IT.
00:47:41SO YOU CAN SAY IRAN IS A PROXIMATE CAUSE, BUT IT JUST
00:47:44ILLUSTRATES REALLY THE ROT OVER THE LAST 30, 40 YEARS THAT WE
00:47:47HAVE BEEN UNDER PRODUCING MUNITIONS.
00:47:49AND BY NOT EXPANDING THEM, WE WERE ABLE TO TELL OURSELVES A
00:47:53LIE THAT THAT WASN'T THE CASE. BUT NOW WE'RE CONFRONTED THE
00:47:57CONSEQUENCES OF A LACK OF DETERRENCE HAVE MEANT LIKE, WELL, YEAH, IT DOESN'T MAKE
00:48:00SENSE TO SHOOT DOWN A $2,000 HOUTHI DRONE WITH A $2 MILLION
00:48:04MISSILE, AND YOU ONLY HAVE TO DO THAT SO LONG BEFORE YOU REALIZE THERE'S A PROBLEM.
00:48:08BUT I THINK THE PRESENT MOMENT, YOU NEED THAT ON STEROIDS. YOU NEED IT.
00:48:12YOU NEED A SCALE TO CONFRONT THE ISSUE AT A SCALE THAT GETS YOU
00:48:15TO FIRE UP THE THE FORGES OF THE ARSENAL OF FREEDOM, WHICH WE'RE
00:48:19CLEARLY AT THAT POINT. I THINK I WOULD AGREE WITH THE
00:48:23ASSESSMENT. FIRST OF ALL, THE DETERRENCE FROM MADURO AND MIDNIGHT HAMMER IS TWOFOLD.
00:48:26THE RUSSIAN AND CHINESE EQUIPMENT DIDN'T REALLY WORK. SO IF YOU'RE A THIRD PARTY COUNTRY SITTING THERE THINKING,
00:48:30HEY, I JUST BOUGHT ALL THIS KIT --.
00:48:33AND THEN YOU ALSO HAVE THE FACT
00:48:36THAT IT'S NOT LIKE THE CHINESE REALLY CAME TO, YOU KNOW, WHAT
00:48:38IS MADURO THINK ABOUT HIS ALLIANCE WITH THE CHINESE RIGHT NOW? THEY DID NOTHING TO HELP HIM.
00:48:42SO, YOU KNOW, IT CHANGES. IT MAKES VERY REAL.
00:48:45THE CALCULUS FOR THESE COUNTRIES. AND THE OTHER PART OF IT IS IT
00:48:48REMINDS THE WORLD OF WHAT I SAID EARLIER, WHICH IS WE REALLY ARE THE GREATEST MILITARY BY A LOT
00:48:52WE HAVE. IT'S NOT JUST RAW CAPABILITY,
00:48:55IT'S KNOWHOW. IT'S AN ABILITY TO FIGHT.
00:48:57IT'S THE TRADECRAFT BEHIND IT. IT'S THE ABSOLUTE READINESS OF WHAT WE HAVE.
00:49:01AND THEN YOU THINK ABOUT THE CHINESE SYSTEM. IT'S ENDEMIC WITH CORRUPTION.
00:49:05YOU YOU GET PAID NOTHING. YOU HAVE LOW RESPECT IN THEIR SOCIETY. AS A MILITARY OFFICER, THE WHOLE
00:49:09THING IS ONLY WORKED THROUGH GRAFT.
00:49:12AND NOW LIKE MATTERS? LIKE, OKAY, YOU FIGURED OUT
00:49:15THERE WAS WATER IN YOUR ROCKETS INSTEAD OF FUEL. WHAT ELSE HAVE YOU NOT FIGURED OUT HOW LONG IT'S GOING TO TAKE
00:49:19YOU TO BOTTOM? ALL THAT STUFF OUT, ALL THAT INCREASES THE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY.
00:49:23AND THEN YOU RECOGNIZE LIKE, OH, AMERICA IS NOT LIKE THAT.
00:49:27THEY'RE NOT SAFE IN OUR FUEL. LIKE THERE SHOULD ACTUALLY WORKS.
00:49:31AND I THINK SEEING THAT INTUITIVE SCENARIOS REALLY PLAY
00:49:33OUT SHOWS THAT WE HAVE BOTH WILL
00:49:36AND UNMATCHED CAPABILITY.
00:49:41JOHN. YOU DON'T NEED TO INTRODUCE YOURSELF.
00:49:45I, I COULDN'T HELP THINKING IN YOUR DISCUSSION ABOUT THIS IS
00:49:50THE WAY WE UNDERSTAND THE WORLD MORE THAN ANYTHING ELSE, THAT WHAT YOU'RE TRYING TO DO IS TO
00:49:53MAKE PEOPLE WAKE UP AND SEE THAT
00:49:56THE, THE OLD WAYS HAVE TO BE CHALLENGE.
00:49:58THAT'S WHAT THE HERESIES ARE. I WANTED TO GET YOUR OPINIONS
00:50:04ABOUT THE WAY IN WHICH OUR OUR
00:50:06KIND OF LITERATURE OR OUR POETS
00:50:10OPERATE AGAINST TECHNOLOGY. I MEAN THE GREAT OPPOSITION TO
00:50:13AI IS DETERMINED LATER OR HAL OR
00:50:16EVERY TIME YOU, YOU, YOU USE THIS STUFF.
00:50:19YEAH, IT'S IT'S EVIL OR IT'S IT'S IT'S SUICIDAL.
00:50:23THERE'S A WAY IN WHICH YOU'RE TALKING EMPIRICALLY ABOUT THE
00:50:27WORLD AND THE IMAGINATION IS BEING TAKEN OVER BY PEOPLE WHO
00:50:30ARE AGAINST YOU. HOW DO YOU THINK ABOUT THAT
00:50:34PROBLEM AND HOW WE CAN SOLVE IT? WELL, WHAT I THINK ABOUT THIS
00:50:36PROBLEM A LOT, SO YOU COULD JUST START WITH A HISTORICAL VERSION
00:50:40OF IT, WHICH IS LIKE WHAT? YOU KNOW, I GREW UP IN THE SHADOW OF THE SPACE COAST IN
00:50:43ORLANDO AND WHEN THE SHUTTLE LAUNCHED, YOU WOULD GO OUT TO
00:50:46THE COURTYARD AND YOU COULD ACTUALLY SEE THE CONTRAIL ON REENTRY.
00:50:49THE DOUBLE SONIC BOOMS WOULD WAKE YOU UP EARLY ON SATURDAY MORNING.
00:50:52ALWAYS SEEM TO BE SATURDAY MORNING. AND LIKE 5 A.M., SIX.
00:50:54AS A KID, THAT WAS GREAT.
00:50:57CARTOONS WERE THE NEXT NEXT DESTINATION.
00:51:01BUT YOU'RE LITERALLY GROWING UP
00:51:03IN THE SHADOW OF OPTIMISM THAT
00:51:05TECHNOLOGY LOOK AT LOOK AT WHAT SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY IS GOING
00:51:08TO BENEFIT HUMANITY. YOU LOOK AT THE ASPIRATION, THE AMBITION.
00:51:11IT'S SO CRAZY. THERE'S A FRONTIER TO GO
00:51:14EXPLORE, YOU KNOW, AND I WOULD SAY GENERALLY OUR MEDIA WAS
00:51:18PRETTY OPTIMISTIC THAT YOU THINK ABOUT HUNT FOR RED OCTOBER
00:51:21NATIONAL GREATNESS, YOU KNOW, EVEN KID STUFF LIKE RED DAWN,
00:51:24THERE WAS HERO ISM IN THE
00:51:27CONTENT AND AND AND WE ALSO HAD
00:51:29WE HAD LIKE THE GENE RODDENBERRY OPTIMISTIC SCI FI, YOU KNOW,
00:51:32MAYBE STAR TREK'S A LITTLE TOO COMMUNIST FOR ME, BUT STILL IT'S NONETHELESS IT'S IT'S IT'S VERY
00:51:37OPTIMIST VIEW OF THE FUTURE.
00:51:39AND LIKE I THINK THINGS LIKE TERMINATOR DO A LOT OF DAMAGE
00:51:43THEY THEY SEND A LOT OF SUBCONSCIOUS SIGNALS YOU KNOW AT
00:51:45SOME SOME POINT JURASSIC PARK
00:51:48BECAME ABOUT A SUBTLE WARNING THAT OF COURSE THERE ARE
00:51:50CONSEQUENCES TECHNOLOGY BUT MOST PEOPLE I KNOW WERE INSPIRED BY IT. LIKE WE SHOULD BRING DINOSAURS
00:51:54BACK. REALLY COOL. BUT IF YOU LOOK AT JURASSIC PARK 17 OR WHATEVER, THE LAST ONE
00:51:58WAS, IT'S REALLY LIKE
00:52:00ENVIRONMENTALISM AND SCIENCE IS BAD AND WE SHOULD JUST TURN OUR
00:52:03BACK ON ALL THIS STUFF AND IT'S GONE TOO FAR. AND OF COURSE YOU DON'T WANT TO
00:52:07BE TOTALLY POLLYANNISH, YOU KNOW, YOU WANT TO BE OBLIVIOUS TO THE CONSEQUENCES THAT
00:52:11TECHNOLOGY WILL DRIVE CHANGE,
00:52:13BUT YOU CAN'T BE SO PESSIMIST THICK AS TO TO BE SO RETROGRADE
00:52:16AND TURN YOUR BACK ON THESE THINGS ENTIRELY. AND SO STRIKING. THAT BALANCE, I THINK, COMES
00:52:21DOWN TO THE STORIES WE TELL EACH OTHER. AND SO WHAT IS OUR ART IS IS
00:52:24ABSOLUTELY CRITICAL AND, YOU KNOW, I THINK THERE'S AN OPPOSITE. I THINK PEOPLE ALSO KIND OF
00:52:28TIRED OF THE CYNICAL STORY IS AND THERE'S GOING TO BE AN
00:52:31OPPORTUNITY LIKE YOU THINK ABOUT. I'LL GIVE YOU A SILLY EXAMPLE,
00:52:35WHICH IS LAND MAN. I THINK LAND MAN HAS DONE MORE TO GET PEOPLE TO KIND OF
00:52:38INTERNALIZE THE NECESSITY AND VALUE AND HOW HARD IT IS TO
00:52:41ACTUALLY GET THESE FOSSIL FUELS OUT OF THE GROUND TWO MILES DOWN.
00:52:44IN SOME SENSE, IT'S A MIRACLE THAT IT WORKS AT ALL. BUT, YOU KNOW, THE MESSAGE IS
00:52:48JUST IT'S JUST ENTERTAINMENT. AND SO I THINK TELLING THE REST
00:52:52OF OUR STORIES REALLY DO MATTER. OKAY?
00:52:54YES, SIR. YOU KNOW. ALL RIGHT.
00:52:58THANK YOU, JAKE AND SARA, SINCE
00:53:00A QUESTION IS THE IRAN WAR, OR
00:53:04IF I DON'T KNOW IF WE CALL IT A WAR, WHAT NOW?
00:53:07BUT IT'S DEMONSTRATED THAT
00:53:10RESOURCES ARE THE CONSTRAINING FACTOR.
00:53:13AND AS MUCH AS WE WANT TO SAY THAT THE INNOVATION CURVE IS
00:53:17INFINITE, HOW DO WE SQUARE THAT WITH RESOURCES?
00:53:21ARE FINITE AND OUR ABILITY TO
00:53:24PROTECT THEM IS EVEN FINITE. WHEN YOU SAY RESOURCE, DO YOU
00:53:28MEAN OIL? OKAY. EXAMPLE THEN ALSO WITH CHINA,
00:53:30CRITICAL MINERALS AND I KNOW WE HAVE THE PROJECT VAULT AND I'D
00:53:33LOVE TO HEAR YOUR THOUGHTS ON THAT TOO. WELL, YEAH, I THINK YOU NEED
00:53:37MORE DIVERSITY OF SUPPLY. SO, YOU KNOW, THERE'S OBVIOUSLY GOING TO BE A SHORT TERM PRICE
00:53:41SHOCK AND THE LONGER IT GOES, MAYBE IT TURNS INTO A LONG TERM ISSUE.
00:53:45BUT NOT EVERY PART OF THE WORLD IS DEPENDENT OIL THAT'S COMING FROM THE MIDDLE EAST.
00:53:48EVEN IF THE PRICE OF OIL IS DEPENDENT ON THE OIL THAT'S COMING FROM THE MIDDLE EAST.
00:53:51SO THIS IS PART OF THE MYTH OF
00:53:53GLOBAL GLOBALIZATION, THE SAME WAY WITH CLOUD COMPUTING. WHAT IS CLOUD COMPUTING?
00:53:58THERE'S NO CLOUD. THERE ARE SOME PHYSICAL
00:54:01INFRASTRUCTURE SOMEWHERE ELSE. THERE IS STILL YOUR POINT OF VULNERABILITY. AND I THINK, YOU KNOW, YOU HAVE
00:54:05TO PIERCE THESE LAYERS OF ABSTRACTION TO REALIZE THAT. I THINK WITH RARE EARTHS WE WERE
00:54:09ABLE TO LIVE IN THIS WORLD WHERE WE THOUGHT THERE'S NOT THAT MUCH
00:54:13ECONOMIC VALUE HERE. THERE'S NO REAL MARGIN.
00:54:15YOU KNOW, WHY WOULD WE INVEST IN
00:54:17THIS PART OF THE SUPPLY CHAIN? BUT WE'RE NOT VIEWING IT.
00:54:19WE'VE NOW LEARNED PAINFULLY, YOU HAVE TO VIEW IT THROUGH THE RISK
00:54:23LENS OF THIS, WHICH IS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS STUFF TO
00:54:25DEPRIVED IS A CHOKE POINT FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE ECONOMY.
00:54:29I PUSH IN THIS DIRECTION OF BEING A RE INDUSTRIALIZATION
00:54:34MAXIM. IT'S BECAUSE OF THAT THAT I THINK AT SOME VERY BASIC LEVEL.
00:54:36SO LET'S TAKE PHARMACEUTICALS AND NATIONAL WILL TO FIGHT.
00:54:39SO 80% OF OUR APIS FOR GENERICS AND GENERIC DRUGS COMES OUT OF
00:54:44CHINA. WHAT DO YOU THINK THE AMERICAN
00:54:46PEOPLE'S WILL TO FIGHT IS GOING TO BE WHEN THEY HAVE TO SUDDENLY
00:54:50DECIDE WHETHER THEIR FIVE YEAR OLD IS GOING TO DIE FROM WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY A TRIVIAL EAR
00:54:54INFECTION BECAUSE WE NO LONGER HAVE ANTIBIOTICS OR FIGHT A WAR?
00:54:58YOU KNOW, THERE ARE ALL THESE
00:55:00WAYS IN WHICH PURELY VIEWING
00:55:02THIS STUFF ECONOMICALLY DOESN'T
00:55:06WORK WHEN THE OTHER SIDE ISN'T INTERESTED.
00:55:09YOU KNOW, THE WAY I PUT THIS, PARTICULARLY WITH CHINA, IS THAT IS THE CCP.
00:55:12IT'S NOT ENOUGH FOR CHINA TO PROSPER.
00:55:15AMERICA MUST ALSO FAIL. IT IS TOTALLY AN ECONOMIC
00:55:18BUSINESS DECISION WHETHER YOU WANT TO BUY AMERICAN SOYBEANS OR BRAZILIAN SOYBEANS.
00:55:21I DON'T ACTUALLY BEGRUDGE YOU FOR THAT. THAT'S THAT'S TRADE. BUT WHEN YOU'RE TRYING TO
00:55:26SMUGGLE IN AGRICULTURAL FUNGUSES SO THAT WE CAN'T GROW SOYBEANS,
00:55:29THAT'S NOT TRADE. THAT'S SOMETHING ELSE.
00:55:31AND BEING CLEAR EYED ABOUT WHAT ARE THEIR INTENTS.
00:55:34AND THEN AS A CONSEQUENCE, WHAT SORT OF DEALS CAN YOU EVEN HAVE
00:55:37WITH THEM THAT AREN'T GOING TO JUST BE PURELY CONQUEST?
00:55:40ECONOMICS IS THE CRITICAL
00:55:43CONCEPTUAL UNDERSTANDING TO READ, TO UNDERWRITE THE BASIS
00:55:45FOR RE INDUSTRIALIZATION.
00:55:50YES.
00:55:52THANK YOU. AND TO HAVE FREEDOM SENIOR
00:55:56VISITING FELLOW AT THE HUDSON INSTITUTE.
00:56:00IN 2018, THERE WAS A CLASH
00:56:02BETWEEN THE GOOGLE, GOOGLE AND
00:56:04THE PENTAGON ON THE PROJECT MAVEN.
00:56:08TODAY WE HAVE ANOTHER CLASH BETWEEN THE ULTRA SPEAKER AND
00:56:10THE PENTAGON. WHAT DOES WHAT WHAT DO YOU THINK
00:56:14IT REVEAL ABOUT THE RELATIONSHIP
00:56:17BETWEEN THE AI FIRM AND THE NATIONAL SECURITY IMPERATIVES?
00:56:22WELL, FIRST OF ALL, I THINK IT IS IT'S A TRAGEDY BECAUSE IT IS
00:56:25IN THE NATIONAL INTEREST FOR ALL THESE LABS TO BE IN THE FIGHT.
00:56:28I THINK MY PERSONAL VIEW IS
00:56:32THAT, LIKE THERE'S A LOT OF LESSONS FROM HISTORY THAT THAT
00:56:35WE OUGHT TO REFLECT ON AND THE
00:56:38KIND OF KNEE JERK REACTION TO HAVE THIS SORT OF SIMPLISTIC
00:56:41VIEW OF LIKE, YOU KNOW, I WANT TO GOVERN. HOW AM I TECHNOLOGY IS USED IS
00:56:46VERY UNDERSTANDABLE. I THINK A LOT OF ENGINEERS, MYSELF INCLUDED, START THERE.
00:56:49BUT THEN IF YOU IF YOU SET THIS IN THE CONTEXT OF DEMOCRACY, YOU
00:56:54KNOW, IT'S IT'S INTOLERABLE, I THINK, FOR THE AMERICAN PEOPLE
00:56:57TO SAY THAT A UNELECTED OFFICIAL THAT THEY'RE UNABLE TO HOLD
00:57:01ACCOUNTABLE IS ACTUALLY GOING TO BE DRIVING POLICY.
00:57:04IT BECOMES TYRANNY BY TECH, BRO, IN A HOODIE.
00:57:06AND I THINK THAT PERSPECTIVE IS NOT UNDERSTOOD CERTAINLY BY THE
00:57:11TECHNOLOGY AS THEY VIEW IT AS LIKE, WELL, THIS WOULD BE IMMORAL.
00:57:13AND, YOU KNOW, THAT'S THAT'S THEY'RE FREE TO HAVE THAT VIEW
00:57:16IN AMERICA. BUT ALSO RECOGNIZING THAT MAYBE OTHER PEOPLE DON'T HAVE THAT
00:57:21VIEW. THAT'S SO THAT'S ONE LAYER, JUST LIKE EPISTEMIC ABILITY, YOU KNOW, LIKE HOW DID THE SOVIETS
00:57:24GET THE BOMB? YOU KNOW, PEOPLE LIKE THEODORE HALL, WHO WAS EDWARD HALL'S BROTHER.
00:57:28SO EDWARD HALL MAKES THE MINUTEMAN, YOU YOU ONE OF THE YOUNGEST SCIENTISTS IN THE
00:57:32MANHATTAN PROJECT AT 18 YEARS OLD, FRESH OUT OF HARVARD, THEODORE HALL.
00:57:36HE SAYS IN HIS INFINITE WISDOM, BECAUSE HE'S ONE OF THE WORLD'S BEST PHYSICISTS AND HE WAS I
00:57:40KNOW, GEE, POLITICS TO THE WORLD
00:57:42WILL HAVE PEACE IF THERE ARE TWO COUNTRIES WITH THE BOMB AND
00:57:46AMERICAN MONOPOLY ON THE BOMB IS DANGEROUS. SO HE WALKS INTO THE SOVIET TRADE MISSION IN NEW YORK AND
00:57:50GIVES THEM SECRETS, YOU KNOW, AND SO, YOU KNOW, A FEAR OR
00:57:54ACCOUNTING OF THEODORE HALL IS
00:57:56EVERY DEATH FROM COMMUNISM SINCE
00:57:581949 THAT BLOOD'S ON HIS HANDS, CERTAINLY IN PART.
00:58:02BUT THAT'S NOT HOW I THINK THE ENGINEER VIEWS THAT.
00:58:04AND I THINK THAT THAT'S PART OF THE CHALLENGE. NOW.
00:58:08AND I ALSO FEEL LIKE THERE ARE
00:58:12THERE WERE VERY PRAGMATIC COMPROMISES THAT CAN BE MADE HERE. AND WE'RE GOING TO HAVE TO HAVE
00:58:15A NATIONAL DIALOG ON THESE THINGS BECAUSE I KNOW THAT YOU JUST BRUSH THIS UNDER THE RUG
00:58:19AND KIND OF MOVE, BUT I IF I HAD
00:58:22NOTICED CYNICISM OR LACK OF OPTIMISM, IT'D BE LIKE, WOW, I
00:58:25THOUGHT WE WERE PAST THIS, YOU KNOW? BECAUSE IF YOU LOOK AT GOOGLE, IT'S A TOTALLY DIFFERENT COMPANY TODAY.
00:58:29THEY ARE VERY INVESTED IN
00:58:31FREEDOM AND PROSPERITY AND, YOU KNOW, YOU SHOULDN'T TARNISH THEM
00:58:34WITH THE BRUSH OF THE VIEWS THAT THEY HAD IN 2018, WHICH MIGHT
00:58:37EVEN HAVE BEEN MORE LIKE KIND OF A POPULIST REACTION INSIDE THE
00:58:41INSTITUTION VERSUS AN INSTITUTIONAL VIEW. BUT WE'RE GOING TO HAVE TO
00:58:44RECONCILE WITH THOSE THINGS ONCE AGAIN. GREAT. WELL, THIS IS UNFORTUNATELY, OUR
00:58:47TIME IS UP. CAN I MAKE ONE COMMENT?
00:58:51GO RIGHT. AND I WANT TO MAKE SURE TO THANK AND INTRODUCE MY CO MADELINE
00:58:54HAAS IN THE AUDIENCE AS WELL. THANK YOU.
00:58:57THAT WAS TERRIFIC.
00:59:02WELCOME. AND AND THIS IS THIS IS A GREAT BOOK.
00:59:06AND I HOPE YOU ALL GET A CHANCE TO READ IT. AND FOR THOSE OF YOU DON'T
00:59:10SNATCH ONE HERE, BUY IT.
00:59:12IT'S YOU KNOW SOMETIMES THEY SAY
00:59:15IN THE 21ST CENTURY, IF YOU WANT TO KEEP SOMETHING SECRET,
00:59:19PUBLISH IT IN A BOOK.
00:59:21BUT THIS IS A BOOK THAT DESERVES TO BE READ.
00:59:24I THINK WE'VE HAD ENOUGH OF A SAMPLE OF WHAT'S ON SHAMS MIND
00:59:28THAT WE KNOW THIS IS A MIND THAT IS WORTH FOLLOWING.
00:59:32I AM CERTAINLY GLAD, COLONEL,
00:59:34THAT YOU ARE A PATRIOT DOING
00:59:36WHAT YOU'RE DOING FOR THE UNITED
00:59:38STATES, AND GOD BLESS YOU AND
00:59:42THIS MORNING, NASA ASTRONAUTS
00:59:44JESSICA MEIR AND A NAIL MEN ON
00:59:46STEP OUTSIDE THE INTERNATIONAL SPACE STATION FOR A CRITICAL
00:59:50SPACEWALK TO PREPARE THE STATION FOR THE INSTALLATION OF ITS
00:59:53SEVENTH ROLL OUT SOLAR ARRAY. THE NEW HARDWARE WILL INCREASE
00:59:57THE STATION'S POWER CAPACITY SUPPORT FUTURE SCIENTIFIC
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