Original Broadcaster Captioning (Enhanced). Treat it as a searchable index of what was broadcast, not a quotation record.
00:00:00CENTERS GUIDE TO LIFE AFTER A.I., HE OFFERS GUIDANCE ON
00:00:04HANDLING THE INTRODUCTION OF A.I. INTO OUR LIVES AND WORK.
00:00:09AT 5:45 P.M. EASTERN, ALSO AT 10:30 P.M. JOURNALIST ANNIE
00:00:13JACOBSEN, AUTHOR OF THE BESTSELLING BOOK BIOLOGICAL WAR
00:00:16A SCENARIO, EXPLORES HOW THE RELEASE OF A BIOLOGICAL WEAPON
00:00:20COULD PLAY OUT ON A GLOBAL SCALE.
00:00:22INSIGHTFUL STORIES IN FINANCIAL VOICES.
00:00:24WATCH BOOK TV EVERY SUNDAY ON
00:00:27C-SPAN TO AND FIND A FULL SCHEDULE ON YOUR GUIDE OR WATCH
00:00:33ONLINE AT ANY TIME AT BOOK TV. TALK.
00:00:38>> AND NOW KEVIN WARSH GIVES HIS FIRST KEYNOTE AS THE FEDERAL
00:00:43RESERVE CHAIR AT THE ANNUAL JACKSON HOLE ECONOMIC SYMPOSIUM IN WYOMING.
00:00:47HE SAID, QUOTE, I'M IMPRESSED BY THE OVERALL APPEARANCE OF THE
00:00:49ECONOMY, WHICH TO HAVE STRENGTHENED. HE ALSO ACKNOWLEDGED RISING
00:00:53COSTS FROM INFLATION.
00:00:55THIS IS ABOUT 30 MINUTES.
00:01:05GOT. >> GOOD MORNING, CHRISTINE. THANK YOU FOR THAT KIND
00:01:09INTRODUCTION. IT WAS 25 YEARS AGO THAT WE WERE COLLEAGUES. IT'S AN HONOR TO SHARE THE STAGE
00:01:13WITH YOU. IT'S GREAT TO BE BACK HERE IN THE VALLEY AGAIN.
00:01:17SEE SO MANY FAMILIAR FROM ACADEMIA, FROM MY LAST TOUR OF
00:01:22SERVICE AND FROM MY FIRST HUNDRED DAYS, WHICH IS JUST THIS
00:01:25WEEKEND, I'VE BEEN LOOKING FORWARD TO THIS WEEKEND AND
00:01:29BEFORE I GO FURTHER, I WANT TO THANK JEFF SCHMITT AND HIS TEAM
00:01:32FOR THE INCREDIBLE.
00:01:36EVERYBODY HERE IS IN DEBT TO YOU AND YOUR COLLEAGUES AT THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF KANSAS
00:01:40CITY. OUR JEFF, OUR THANKS TO YOU AND YOUR TEAM.
00:01:44NOW, HE AND THE OTHER PLANNERS HERE HAVE SOME RECREATION
00:01:48OPTIONS LINED UP FOR LATER TODAY. >> I'D ADVISE YOU TO BE VERY
00:01:52CAREFUL WITH YOUR CHOICES. >> AS I LEARNED YEARS AGO, YOU
00:01:56CAN TWO DIFFERENT KINDS OF HIKES
00:01:58ON THE TRAILS AROUND JACKSON.
00:02:00I CAN SUM UP MY HIKES WITH
00:02:03FORMER VICE CHAIRMAN DON COHN.
00:02:05TWO WORDS I SURVIVE.
00:02:08THESE STEELY MARATHON DEATH
00:02:12MARCHES REVEALED THE SIGN OF DON
00:02:15THAT I WAS NOT READY FOR. BUT THERE'S ANOTHER KIND OF HIKE.
00:02:19>> THIS ONE WAS WITH FORMER CHAIRMAN BEN BERNANKE.
00:02:22>> ANOTHER OLD COLLEAGUE WITH, BEN.
00:02:26IT WAS A MUCH MORE LEISURELY PACE.
00:02:28AN EASY STROLL ALONG THE WANDERING TRAILS OF THE
00:02:32ROCKEFELLER PRESERVE. >> SO BEFORE SETTING OUT TODAY
00:02:35MY RECOMMENDATION, DO A WELLNESS CHECK.
00:02:38>> ASK YOURSELF, IS THIS A CONE
00:02:41DAY OR A BERNANKE DAY?
00:02:43THE BEST ABOUT THIS GATHERING IS
00:02:45THAT IT HELPS US ALL GET OUT HERE TO THE MOUNTAINS AND CLEAR
00:02:49OUR MINDS AND THINK STRAIGHT
00:02:51ABOUT OUR WORLD, OUR TIME.
00:02:55FOR IT FEELS LIKE THE RIGHT
00:02:57PLACE AND THE RIGHT AUDIENCE FOR
00:02:59REAL ENGAGEMENT WITH THE IDEAS THAT MATTER MOST.
00:03:03>> INNOVATION AS KRISTEN MENTIONED, IS THE CONFERENCE
00:03:07THEME, AND I BELIEVE THE PUBLIC,
00:03:09THE MARKETS UNDERSTAND THAT
00:03:11INNOVATIONS IN THE COMMON DUCT
00:03:13OF FED POLICY WILL HELP DELIVER
00:03:16PRICE STABILITY ALONGSIDE FULL EMPLOYMENT.
00:03:19SO HERE'S A QUICK OVERVIEW OF WHAT I'LL COVER IN MY REMARKS THIS MORNING.
00:03:23YOU CAN CALL IT AN OUTLINE AND CALL IT A TRAIL MAP, BUT PLEASE
00:03:27JUST DON'T CALL IT FORWARD.
00:03:31FIRST, I'LL TOUCH ON A FEW THE LONGER TERM QUESTIONS WE'RE
00:03:34ASKING AT THE FED ABOUT THE LATEST GENERAL PURPOSE
00:03:38TECHNOLOGY AND WHERE IT MIGHT TAKE ECONOMY.
00:03:42THEN REFLECT A BIT ON THE
00:03:44PRACTICE OF FORWARD GUIDANCE AND THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE
00:03:48CENTRAL BANK AND FINANCIAL MARKETS.
00:03:50NEXT, I'LL PRESENT SOME OF THE
00:03:52KEY PRINCIPLES THAT BELIEVE SHOULD GUIDE THE CONDUCT OF
00:03:55MONETARY POLICY. AND FINALLY, I'LL GIVE YOU MY
00:03:59ASSESSMENT OF WHAT'S HAPPENING IN THE ECONOMY. SO FIRST, I THINK WE SHOULD TRY
00:04:02TO PREPARE A BIT FOR FUTURE
00:04:05POLICY CONJUNCTURE WITH THE
00:04:09UNCHANGING OF THE TETONS AS OUR BACKDROP.
00:04:11WE ARE HERE TO SURVEY ECONOMIC
00:04:13LANDSCAPE THAT IS BUT STATIC.
00:04:17IT WASN'T SO LONG AGO, INCLUDING
00:04:19IN ROOMS LIKE THIS.
00:04:21IN THE RUN UP TO THE CRISIS OF
00:04:232008 AND OVER THE DECADE
00:04:26FOLLOWED WHEN ECONOMISTS POLICYMAKERS WERE SPEAKING OF
00:04:29SIX PILLAR STAGNATION.
00:04:31SPEAKING OF A GLOBAL SAVINGS
00:04:34GLUT, IT'S A WIDELY HELD VIEW
00:04:36THAT AN EXCESS OF CAPITAL WOULD SIT ON THE SIDELINES FOR A VERY
00:04:39LONG, LONG BECAUSE THERE JUST WOULDN'T ENOUGH COMPELLING
00:04:42INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES. ALL THE GOOD STUFF YOU'LL RECALL
00:04:47BEEN INVENTED.
00:04:47SO GROWTH BE LOW AND SLOW.
00:04:51WELL I'M, SURE HAVE CHANGED.
00:04:54WE'VE COME TO A HINGE POINT IN
00:04:57HISTORY, TO BORROW A PHRASE
00:04:59FRAMING FROM MY FORMER MENTOR,
00:05:01SHULTZ, TO THE CLEAREST EXAMPLE
00:05:05PROGRESS A.I., THE 80 YEAR OLD
00:05:08NAME FOR THE NEWEST TECHNOLOGY
00:05:10HAS BEEN FASTER, EVEN THAN ITS EVANGELISTS PREDICTED.
00:05:13JUST A COUPLE YEARS AGO. THE POTENTIAL FOR SUBSTANTIALLY
00:05:16HIGHER GROWTH ON THE RISE EVER
00:05:20POOLS OF CAPITAL POURING INTO AI
00:05:23RELATED INFRASTRUCTURE OF ALL
00:05:25SORTS, A KIND SUPER MOORE'S LAW
00:05:29SEEMS TO BE PLAYING OUT. SCALING LAWS, TOO, ARE CHANGING
00:05:33BOTH THE METHOD AND SPEED OF INNOVATION.
00:05:37CAPITAL AND LABOR HAVE COMBINED
00:05:39TO CREATE LARGE LANGUAGE MODELS AT THE HEART OF A.I. USERS BY
00:05:43TOKENS TO GAIN ACCESS TO THESE MODELS REPORTS.
00:05:47BUT ANNUALIZED TOKENS FOR THE
00:05:49TWO LEADING LABS ALONE AT MORE.
00:05:56THAN $100 BILLION, AN INCREASE 500% FROM JUST 12 MONTHS AGO. WE HAVE THE FED.
00:06:00WE WATCH ALL THIS ATTENTIVELY.
00:06:03WE RECOGNIZE THAT A.I. IS A NEW
00:06:07POTENTIALLY A NEW FACTOR OF PRODUCTION THAT WILL HAVE
00:06:11CONSEQUENCES FOR THE ECONOMY AND
00:06:13THE CONDUCT OF MONETARY POLICY. IT OPENS UP SOME MAJOR LINES OF
00:06:19INQUIRY WITH THE APPLICATION OF A.I. CAUSE A SIGNIFICANT
00:06:23SUSTAINED RISE IN PRODUCTIVITY ACROSS THE ECONOMY.
00:06:27IF SO, WHEN WILL TOKEN USAGE BE
00:06:31COMPLEMENTARY OR? COMPETITIVE TO LABOR?
00:06:35WILL THE NEXT GENERATION OF AI MODELS DEMAND EVEN GREATER
00:06:40CAPTURE INTENSITY TOO? OR THE MODELS THEMSELVES HELP
00:06:44DEVISE A CAPITAL LITE SOLUTION?
00:06:46AMONG THE OTHER YET UNKNOWN IS
00:06:49THE RESULTING MARKET STRUCTURE. WHO GETS TO MAKE THE MONEY?
00:06:53IT'S NOT OBVIOUS WHEN THE WHERE
00:06:55THE RETURNS ON CAPITAL WILL LAND OR ON WHAT TIME SCALE.
00:06:59EARLY ON. HOW MUCH OF THE SURPLUS GOES TO
00:07:03OWNERS SCARCE ASSETS. THE AIR IN LABS OR CHIPMAKERS OR
00:07:07ENERGY OR CLOUD PROVIDERS OVER
00:07:10TIME, HOW MUCH THAT VALUE
00:07:12ACCRUES TO BUSINESSES AND CONSUMERS.
00:07:16AND IMPORTANTLY, WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS FOR WORKERS AND FOR
00:07:19THE EMPLOYMENT SIDE OF THE FED'S MANDATE?
00:07:24LIKEWISE WE DON'T YET KNOW THE EQUILIBRIUM PRICE OF THE TOKENS
00:07:27THAT GIVE ACCESS TO THESE MODELS.
00:07:30MIGHT THERE BE A HETEROGENEITY OF TOKENS SUCH THAT GROWING SUMS
00:07:35WILL PAID FOR THE ACCESS TO THE BEST MODELS?
00:07:37THOSE ARE THE FRONTIER WILL
00:07:41TOKEN FOR OLDER MODELS FALL TO
00:07:44THE LEVEL OF THEIR MARGINAL COST. WELL WILL BE STRENGTH.
00:07:47THINKING THROUGH THESE MATTERS WITH THE HELP OF A TASK FORCE ON
00:07:51PRODUCT LIBERTY AND JOBS. MY EARLY CHECK INS WITH THE
00:07:54LEADERS OF THAT TASK FORCE AND THE REST HAVE BEEN VERY
00:07:57ENCOURAGING. TO BE CLEAR THOUGH, THEIR RECOMMENDATIONS WILL COME LATER
00:08:01AND HAVE NO ON DECISIONS MAKE IN
00:08:05THE CURRENT POLICY CONJUNCTURE.
00:08:07BUT I BELIEVE THAT FOR FUTURE POLICY CHALLENGES THIS
00:08:11INTELLECTUAL INVESTMENT TODAY WILL LEAVE US MUCH BETTER
00:08:16PREPARED TOMORROW.
00:08:18NEXT, LET ME SAY A WORD ABOUT
00:08:20GUIDANCE AND SUBSTITUTES A AS
00:08:24OUR TASK FORCES GO ABOUT THEIR WORK.
00:08:26AS YOU MIGHT KNOW, I'M NOT
00:08:29WAITING TO INTRODUCE INNOVATIONS
00:08:30THE FED TO HELP MAKE US FIT FOR PURPOSE.
00:08:35TO HIGHLIGHT ONE EXAMPLE I'VE SET OUT TO CHANGE THE FORM AND
00:08:39FUNCTION OF THE FED CHAIRMAN, SO-CALLED FORWARD GUIDANCE.
00:08:43YOU MIGHT KNOW ABOUT MY LONG TIME DISCOMFORT WITH EARLY
00:08:48PRONOUNCEMENTS OF FUTURE POLICY DECISIONS.
00:08:50I MUCH PREFER ANOTHER PATH, AND
00:08:52THAT WILL MAKE THE CASE FOR IT
00:08:57TRANSPIRE AND SEE IN COMMUNICATIONS ABOUT FUTURE POLICY DECISIONS.
00:09:01IT'S NOT AN END UNTO ITSELF.
00:09:03COMMUNICATIONS MUST BE IN
00:09:05SERVICE TO THE FED'S PERIL RESPONSIBILITY.
00:09:09WHAT IS THAT. IT'S GETTING POLICY RIGHT
00:09:13FORWARD AS A REGULAR PRACTICE
00:09:16WAS ADOPTED BY MY COLLEAGUES AND
00:09:18ME DURING THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS.
00:09:20IT WAS ESSENTIAL THE TIME AND WE
00:09:24INTRODUCED IT WITH MUCH FANFARE.
00:09:26BUT AS WITH OTHER LEGACIES
00:09:28CRISES PAST, I THE PRACTICE HAS
00:09:32ITS WELCOME. IN NORMAL TIMES, THE ROLE OF
00:09:36FORWARD GUIDANCE SHOULD BE LIMITED AND, CIRCUMSCRIBED.
00:09:40OTHERWISE, IT RISKS CREATING
00:09:42AMBIGUITY IN THE NAME OF CLARITY
00:09:46OVERSHARING POLICY DELIBERATIONS AND OVERCOMMITTING TO FUTURE
00:09:51DECISION AS CAN LEAD MARKETS,
00:09:53BUSINESSES AND HOUSEHOLDS.
00:09:56AND I BELIEVE WHEN POLICYMAKERS
00:09:58MAKE QUASI COMMITMENT ON INTEREST RATES THROUGHOUT THE
00:10:02CYCLE, WE INHIBIT OUR OWN
00:10:04FREEDOM TO MAKE THE RIGHT CALLS.
00:10:07WHEN IT'S TIME TO DECIDE TO GET
00:10:10POLICY, WE ALSO NEED TO GET THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE CENTRAL
00:10:14BANK AND FINANCIAL MARKETS.
00:10:16THE MARKETS, THE EXCUSE THE FED
00:10:18NEEDS CLEAR MARKET SIGNALS AS
00:10:21UNFILTERED AS POSSIBLE FROM
00:10:23MARKET INTERNALS, FROM THE LEVEL
00:10:27AND CHANGE IN ASSET PRICES ACROSS.
00:10:29THE PRICES AND TRADING VOLUMES
00:10:32OF TREASURY SECURITIES.
00:10:35THE FOREIGN EXCHANGE VALUE OF THE DOLLAR.
00:10:37THE COST. AVAILABILITY OF CREDIT.
00:10:41A BROAD SET OF COMMODITY PRICES. THESE.
00:10:45AND INDICATORS SHOULD INFORM THE
00:10:47FED'S NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK ON
00:10:50ECONOMIC ACTIVITY AND INFLATION.
00:10:52THE BUSINESS CYCLE. IT SHOULD ALSO REVEAL THE STATE
00:10:56OF BROADER FINANCIAL AND THE
00:11:00RISKS AND UNCERTAINTIES OF THE FINANCIAL CYCLE.
00:11:04AT SAME TIME, MARKET
00:11:07PARTICIPANTS THEMSELVES SHOULD
00:11:09TRACKING REAL INFORMATION ABOUT THE REAL ECONOMY.
00:11:13THEY SHOULD DRAW THEIR OWN CONCLUSIONS, FORM THEIR OWN
00:11:17EXPECTATIONS ON THINGS LIKE OUTPUT AND EMPLOYMENT AND
00:11:21INFLATION. AND THEY TOO SHOULD STAY SHARPLY
00:11:23ATTUNED TO RISKS.
00:11:25IN MY VIEW, FED SHOULD BE HUMBLE
00:11:27AND NEVER NAIVE.
00:11:29THE FED PLAYS AN ESSENTIAL ROLE
00:11:32IN THE ECONOMY AND MARKETS ARE
00:11:35TOOLS ARE POWERFUL. WE DETERMINE THE PATH OF SHORT
00:11:38TERM INTEREST RATES.
00:11:40AND MARKET PARTICIPANTS WILL ALWAYS TRY TO ANTICIPATE WHAT WE
00:11:44WILL DO NEXT. BUT WE SHOULD NOT INDULGE A
00:11:50REGIME IN WHICH MARKET PARTICIPANTS LOOKING PRIMARILY
00:11:53TO THE FED FOR THEIR NEXT TRADE.
00:11:58THE ECONOMIC LITERATURE HAS LONG
00:11:59DESCRIBED THE DISTORTING EFFECTS WHAT IT CALLED THE HALL OF
00:12:04MIRRORS. IF MARKETS RELY MATERIALLY ON
00:12:07THE FED'S GUIDANCE AND THE FED
00:12:10RELIES ON MARKET PRICES, WE'RE
00:12:13MORE LIKELY TO BE BLINDED TO DEVELOPMENTS.
00:12:17MORE TO BE CAUGHT UNPREPARED AND
00:12:20MORE LIKELY TO COMMIT ERRORS IN POLICYMAKING.
00:12:24NOW, PERVERSELY, MARKET
00:12:27PARTICIPANTS ARE UNLIKELY TO BEAR THE BIGGEST OF THE HALL OF
00:12:30MIRRORS PROBLEM MOST SERIOUS
00:12:33HARM IS LIKELY TO BEFALL THOSE
00:12:36ANY FINANCIAL ASSETS.
00:12:38IF THE FED GETS INFLATION WRONG
00:12:40AND JUDGES THE ECONOMY WRONG GETS THE WORST OF IT.
00:12:44NOT THE FINANCIAL HIGH FLIERS.
00:12:49HARD AMERICANS ARE THE ONES LEFT TO DEAL WITH INFLATION.
00:12:51THAT'S TOO HIGH OR JOBS THAT SUDDENLY APPEAR LESS SECURE.
00:12:56SO. SO IF FORWARD GUIDANCE IS ILL
00:12:59SUITED TO NORMAL TIMES, HOW ABOUT THE NEW FED CHIEF AT A
00:13:03MEETING?
00:13:03JUST LIKE SOME EXPLICIT REACTION
00:13:07FUNCTION? SURELY HE COULD TELL US HIS
00:13:10INTEREST RATE PATH. IF, SAY, THE DATA WERE TO COME
00:13:13IN OR COLD?
00:13:16WELL I WISH OUR UNDERSTANDING OF THE ECONOMY WERE SO PRECISE AS
00:13:20TO PROVIDE A MECHANIC TRIED AND TRUE ANSWER.
00:13:24THAT'S SOME SIMPLE FUNCTION LIKE A TAYLOR RULE.
00:13:28COULD BE RIGOROUSLY RELIED UPON,
00:13:30BUT OUR KNOWLEDGE JUST DOES NOT
00:13:32EXTEND THAT FAR, AT LEAST NOT YET.
00:13:36AND OTHER FACTORS MOST RELEVANT
00:13:38TO THE PROPER CONDUCT MONETARY POLICY.
00:13:40THEY CHANGE OVER TIME PROVIDING
00:13:44FORECASTS TO ILLUSTRATE THE FED'S REACTION FUNCTION WORKS
00:13:48BETTER IN THEORY THAN IN
00:13:51PRACTICE BETTER IN THE LAB THAN IN THE FIELD.
00:13:55I AM NOT ALONE IN NOTICING THAT
00:13:58FORWARD GUIDANCE IN 2021.
00:14:00TO CITE JUST ONE EXAMPLE MIGHT WELL HAVE SLOWED THE POLICY
00:14:05RESPONSE TO HIGH INFLATION. IN MY TERM AS CHAIRMAN, MY
00:14:09COLLEAGUES AND I WILL ENDEAVOR TO CONSTRUCT MORE RELIABLE
00:14:12MODELS, MORE ROBUST RULES AND
00:14:15WILL DO THIS KNOWING THAT
00:14:17ACCURACY IN FORECASTING IS STILL
00:14:19JUST AN ASPIRATION.
00:14:21WITH SO MUCH CHANGING SO FAST IN
00:14:24OUR GEOPOLITICS, GLOBAL SUPPLY
00:14:27CHAINS TECHNOLOGY, IT'S WISE TO
00:14:30BE MODEST ABOUT WHAT WE CAN AND CANNOT KNOW.
00:14:32AS WE SIT HERE TODAY IN THE SAME
00:14:36SPIRIT WE SHOULD RECEIVE THE
00:14:38FULL RANGE OF IDEAS MATTERS THAT
00:14:40MAY INFORM THE FED'S MONETARY POLICY DISCUSSIONS.
00:14:44IF THE AIM IS OPTIMAL MAKING AND
00:14:46IT SHOULD, WE SHOULD NOT CROWD
00:14:50VIEWS ON THE ECONOMY, HOW THEN
00:14:53TO A BETTER PATH TO POLICY?
00:14:56IN THE BALANCE OF MY I WILL
00:14:58SHARE WITH YOU KEY PRINCIPLES
00:15:02THAT GUIDE MY THINKING ON THE APPROPRIATE CONDUCT OF MONETARY
00:15:06POLICY, AND THEN I'LL OFFER MY PROMISED ASSESSMENT OF THE
00:15:10ECONOMY. SO LET'S TURN FIRST TO PRINCIPLES.
00:15:13FIRST, I'VE NOTICED IN THIS LINE OF WORK.
00:15:17YESTERDAY'S NEWS HAS A WAY OF
00:15:19GETTING MISTAKEN FOR WHAT'S HAPPENING RIGHT NOW.
00:15:23THE CHALLENGE IS TO KNOW THE DIFFERENCE.
00:15:25IN OTHER WORDS, WE MUST INTERROGATE REALITY, MAKE SURE
00:15:31WE'RE NOT SETTING FORWARD
00:15:32LOOKING POLICY BASED ON STALE OR
00:15:36INACCURATE DATA, NOR SHOULD WE
00:15:39RELY ON ISOLATED DATA POINTS.
00:15:41TRENDS MATTER MOST.
00:15:44THE FED'S DECISION MAKING AGENCY
00:15:47WE MAKE CHOICES AMID UNCERTAINTY
00:15:50IN THE DATA UPON WHICH WE MUST
00:15:52BE RELEVANT CONTEMPORANEOUS,
00:15:55ACCURATE, AND AS ACTION AS POSSIBLE.
00:16:01SECOND PRINCIPLE THE FED'S ACTIONS INTENDED TO ENSURE THAT
00:16:04THE AGGREGATE.
00:16:08SIDE OF THE ECONOMY IS BROADLY CONSISTENT WITH AGGREGATES.
00:16:12HOWEVER, WE OBSERVE DIRECTLY IS ACTIVITY.
00:16:14WE NEVER SEE AND CAN ONLY INFER
00:16:18WHAT'S REALLY HAPPENING ON THE SUPPLY.
00:16:22HENCE, EVALUATING THE CURRENT AND EXPECTED BALANCE BETWEEN
00:16:26AGGREGATES, SUPPLY AND AGGREGATE DEMAND IS.
00:16:32THIRD PRINCIPLE THERE SHOULD BE NO.
00:16:36THE FED'S PRICE STABILITY
00:16:38OBJECTIVE OF 2% AS MEASURED THE
00:16:41PRICE INDEX IS A FIRM FIXED
00:16:45TARGET. LET MAY BE EQUALLY CLEAR ABOUT
00:16:47PRICE STABILITY IS NOT.
00:16:55NOR IS INFLATION NECESSARILY
00:16:57MEAN REVERTING. IT'S THE FED'S JOB TO DELIVER
00:17:01STABLE PRICES. NO EXCUSES.
00:17:05FOURTH PRINCIPLE THE FED ALSO
00:17:07BEARS RESPONSIBILITY FOR MAXIMUM EMPLOYMENT.
00:17:11ACHIEVING BOTH SIDES OF MANDATE
00:17:13OVER THE MEDIUM TERM IS NOT AN EITHER OR PROPOSITION.
00:17:17I DO NOT BELIEVE FED'S DUAL MANDATE WORKS.
00:17:23CROSS-PURPOSES. AFTER ALL, HIGH INFLATION ITSELF
00:17:25IS VERY HARMFUL TO ECONOMIC
00:17:29PROSPERITY. FIFTH PRINCIPLE. SHORT INTEREST RATES ARE THE
00:17:35PREDOMINANT TOOL TO ACHIEVE THE DUAL MANDATE.
00:17:39UNCONVENTIONAL TO SPUR ECONOMIC
00:17:41ACTIVITY MAY SUIT GENUINE CRISES
00:17:45OF WHICH WE ALL HAVE MUCH EXPERIENCE, BUT THEY SHOULD
00:17:48OTHERWISE BE USED SPARINGLY.
00:17:51IF ALL.
00:17:54SIXTH MONEY MATTERS.
00:17:56I KNOW IT'S NOT FASHIONABLE
00:17:58THESE DAYS, BUT MY VIEW IS THAT
00:18:00MONEY HAS SOMETHING IMPORTANT TO
00:18:03DO WITH MONETARY POLICY.
00:18:05WE SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO MONEY
00:18:07CREATED BY THE CENTRAL BANK AND MONEY THAT COMES FROM THE
00:18:12BANKING AND FINANCIAL.
00:18:14IT'S TRUE THAT FINANCIAL
00:18:16INNOVATIONS SUCH ASKED OF THIS
00:18:18CONFERENCE AND OTHER ALTER THE
00:18:22MECHANICS THAT LINK THE MONETARY
00:18:24BASE THE VELOCITY OF MONEY AND THE BROADER ECONOMY.
00:18:28BUT THAT IS SCARCELY A REASON IGNORE THE ULTIMATE EFFECTS OF
00:18:32MONEY ON FINANCIAL CONDITIONS AND PRICES.
00:18:37FINALLY, A QUIETER A MORE
00:18:42PURPOSEFUL FED IN ITS COMMUNICATIONS IS BETTER ABLE TO
00:18:45MEET ITS OBJECTIVES, AND WE CAN
00:18:48BE HELD ACCOUNTABLE FOR DELIVERING ON OUR REMIT.
00:18:51THE ONLY TRUE TEST OF OUR CREDIBILITY.
00:18:55TO BORROW A LINE FROM GENERAL CHUCK YEAGER AT THE MOMENT OF TRUTH.
00:18:59THERE ARE EITHER REASONS OR RESULTS.
00:19:03SO HAVING HEARD A LITTLE BIT ABOUT A.I. AND GENERAL PURPOSE
00:19:08TECHNOLOGY, HAVING HEARD A LITTLE BIT ABOUT THE NEXT
00:19:10POLICY, CONJUNCTURE A LITTLE ON
00:19:14PRINCIPLES, LET'S TURN TO THE ECONOMY TODAY.
00:19:16GIVEN THOSE PRINCIPLES, HOW DO I READ THE ECONOMY?
00:19:20WHAT'S REALLY GOING ON OUTSIDE THE WINDOW?
00:19:23IT'S A LITTLE IRONIC THERE ARE
00:19:25NO WINDOWS IN THIS ROOM, BUT BUT
00:19:27THEY'RE BIG ONES AT THE FEDERAL RESERVE.
00:19:31AND WE'VE BEEN USING THOSE IN MY
00:19:34FIRST HUNDRED DAYS, AND I EXPECT WE'RE GOING TO CONTINUE TO USE
00:19:37THOSE IN THE PERIOD RIGHT AHEAD OF US. YOU MAY HAVE READ IN THE JULY
00:19:41MINUTES THE VIEW OF THE FOMC.
00:19:46LABOR WERE STABLE.
00:19:49OUTPUT SOLID, BUT INFLATION REMAINED TOO HIGH.
00:19:52A GOOD MAJORITY OF MY COLLEAGUES AND I THOUGHT WISER COURSE WAS
00:19:56TO AWAIT NEW INFORMATION IN THE
00:19:58INTERMEETING PERIOD, ESPECIALLY
00:20:02GIVEN DEVELOPMENTS IN SUPPLY CHAINS, INVESTMENT FLOWS AND
00:20:06GEOPOLITICS BEFORE DECIDING WHETHER A CHANGE IN INTEREST
00:20:10RATE POLICY WAS ADVISED.
00:20:12AND WE EXPRESSED OUR JOINT
00:20:14READINESS TO ACT AS
00:20:17CIRCUMSTANCES EXCUSE ME, REQUIRE
00:20:20FOR MY PART TODAY, AS WE SIT
00:20:23HERE, I'M IMPRESSED BY THE OVERALL PERFORMANCE, THE
00:20:26ECONOMY, WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE.
00:20:29ONE INDICATOR OF STRENGTH IS HOW WELL AN ECONOMY HOLDS UP STRESS,
00:20:33HOW WELL IT HOLDS UP UNDER SHOCKS.
00:20:37ON THAT SCORE, BOTH STREET AND
00:20:39WALL STREET HAVE BEEN REMARKABLY.
00:20:44SEVERAL OTHER OBSERVATIONS.
00:20:46BUSINESS CAPEX IS RISING RAPIDLY.
00:20:50THE FOURTH QUARTER CHANGE AND INVESTMENT IN EQUIPMENT AND INTANGIBLES HAS AROUND 9%.
00:20:55ITS HIGHEST GROWTH RATE SINCE 2021.
00:20:57AND MORE THAN HALF OF THE CAPEX GROWTH CAN LIKELY BE ASCRIBED TO
00:21:03THE BUILDOUT RELATED TO A.I.
00:21:05WHAT ABOUT PROFITS FOR THE
00:21:09FIRMS? THE S&P PROFITS HAVE GROWN MORE THAN 20% OVER THE PAST YEAR
00:21:13ALONE. PROFIT MARGINS ARE QUITE
00:21:16ELEVATED RELATIVE TO HISTORY.
00:21:18OVERALL EQUITY MARKET VOLATILITY QUITE LOW.
00:21:21WE'RE STAYING KEENLY FOCUSED ON
00:21:24MARKET INTERNALS, WATCHING
00:21:26PERFORMANCE ACROSS SECTORS.
00:21:30EXPECTATION FOR BOTH GROWTH AND CAPEX AND CORPORATE EARNINGS ARE
00:21:33RUNNING QUITE HIGH. I CONTINUE TO WATCH THE CHANGE THE GROWTH RATES.
00:21:38SECOND DERIVATIVE, THE FOLLOW ON EFFECTS, ASSET PRICES, BUSINESS
00:21:43CONFIDENCE, CONSUMER INCOMES AND SPENDING ARE EQUALLY IMPORTANT
00:21:46TO GAUGE CREDIT SPREADS ON
00:21:50CORPORATE BONDS AND LEVERAGED LOANS ARE NEAR THE LOW END OF
00:21:53THEIR AVERAGES.
00:21:55IN ISSUE VOLUMES THIS YEAR QUITE STRONG.
00:21:59LOOKING BEYOND FIXED INCOME
00:22:01MARKETS TO THE BANKING BUSINESS IN THE JULY SO-CALLED SLEUTH
00:22:05SURVEY, BANKS TELL US THAT FOR
00:22:07CNI LOANS ON THE EASIER END OF
00:22:11THEIR HISTORICAL RANGES HELPS
00:22:13EXPLAIN THEIR GROWTH THAT. WE'VE SEEN THIS YEAR ON THESE LOANS.
00:22:17IN MY VIEW, CREDIT AND LOAN
00:22:19MARKETS ARE SHOWING FEW SIGNS OF POLICY RESTRAINT.
00:22:23NOW, CERTAIN SECTORS LIKE AND
00:22:25AGRICULTURE ARE SHOWING
00:22:28STRENGTH, BUT ON BALANCE, I WOULD BE HARD PRESSED TO
00:22:32DESCRIBE FINANCIAL CONDITIONS AS RESTRICTIVE.
00:22:36REAL CONSUMER SPENDING HAS BEEN HEALTHY.
00:22:38DESPITE THESE SHOCKS INCREASING
00:22:41MORE THAN 2% OVER THE PAST FOUR QUARTERS. IF YOU COMBINE CONSUMPTION WITH
00:22:44THE BRISK WE TALKED ABOUT EARLIER PRIVATE, DOMESTIC,
00:22:49FINANCIAL PURCHASES HAVE ALSO RISEN.
00:22:52THESE PURCHASES HAVE INCREASED AT A PACE OF NEARLY 3% OR SO.
00:22:56SO THIS YEAR. THAT'S A MEASURE THAT TYPICALLY
00:22:59CAROLS MORE SIGNAL THAN GDP.
00:23:03THE TREND HERE TO POSITIVE.
00:23:05SO ON THE EMPLOYMENT SIDE, THE FED'S DUAL MANDATE COUNTRIES
00:23:09WELL LABOR MARKET ARE QUITE STABLE.
00:23:13JOBLESS RATE AT 4.1% REMAINS LOW
00:23:16BY HISTORICAL STANDARDS AND HASN'T CHANGED MUCH IN COUPLE OF
00:23:21YEARS. UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS ON A FOUR
00:23:24WEEK MOVING AVERAGE, AN EMPIRICALLY ROBUST REAL TIME
00:23:27INDICATOR, ARE NEAR THEIR LOWEST IN DECADES.
00:23:31IN MY VIEW, THE RELATIVELY LOW
00:23:33TURNOVER IN TODAY'S LABOR MARKET IS PARTLY A RESULT OF.
00:23:37THE SIGNIFICANT REMATCH BETWEEN EMPLOYERS AND EMPLOYEES THAT
00:23:41HAPPENED AFTER THE POSTS IN THE
00:23:44POST-PANDEMIC ENVIRONMENT.
00:23:46BUT WHEN LABOR SUPPLY IS BARELY GROWING MONTHLY GAINS ARE
00:23:50NATURALLY GOING TO RUN LOW.
00:23:54THERE ALWAYS AREA OF CONCERNS IN THE LABOR MARKET, FOR EXAMPLE,
00:23:56AMONG RECENT GRADUATE. IN GENERAL, THOUGH, PEOPLE WANT
00:24:00TO WORK BY AND ARE HOLDING OR FINDING JOBS.
00:24:04IT MAY WELL BE CONCERNED ABOUT
00:24:08FUTURE DISRUPTIONS, BUT OF NOW I
00:24:10BELIEVE THE MARKETS ARE BROADLY CONSISTENT.
00:24:14FULL EMPLOYMENT.
00:24:16BUT ON THE PRICE STABILITY SIDE
00:24:18OF OUR MANDATE THE NUMBERS ARE MORE CONCERN.
00:24:22THE FED'S PREFERRED MEASURE OF INFLATION I TALKED ABOUT EARLIER
00:24:26THE 12 MONTH CHANGE IN THE PC
00:24:28PRICE INDEX STANDS AT 3.7%.
00:24:32THE SIX MONTH CHANGE A LITTLE ABOVE FOR THE COMPARABLE
00:24:36MEASURES FROM THE INDEX ARE ALSO
00:24:39ELEVATED AS OUR CORE MEASURES.
00:24:40BOTH OF P, C AND CPI INFLATION.
00:24:44NONE OF THESE MEASURES ARE PERFECT, BUT THEY ALL TELL A
00:24:48SIMILAR STORY. INFLATION IS RUNNING ABOVE OUR 2% TARGET.
00:24:53THE FED'S PREDOMINANT FOCUS
00:24:55RIGHT NOW SHOULD BE ON PRICES.
00:24:59SO WHAT'S OUR JOB?
00:25:01THE JOB FOR POLICYMAKER IS TO
00:25:04CAPTURE UNDERLYING INFLATION
00:25:08EASIER SAID THAN DONE. WE WANT TO GAUGE WHETHER
00:25:10UNDERLYING INFLATION RISING OR FALLING OR SEEMS TO BE STUCK IN
00:25:16PLACE. WE ALSO WANT TO UNDERSTAND NOT
00:25:18JUST THE DIRECTION OF TRAVEL, BUT THE SPEED.
00:25:22EACH OF THESE BROAD INFLATION MEASURES HAVE FALLEN
00:25:26SIGNIFICANTLY. THEIR HIGHS OF A FEW YEARS AGO,
00:25:28BUT PROGRESS OF THE LAST COUPLE YEARS HAS BEEN MORE MODEST.
00:25:32AND WHILE THIS SUMMER'S PCI AND
00:25:34CPI READINGS BETTER THAN EXPECTED, THEY DO NOT TELL ME
00:25:38THAT UNDERLYING HAVE
00:25:40MEANINGFULLY IMPROVED THE DATA.
00:25:44ALSO SHOW MODERATE WAGE GROWTH.
00:25:46BUT IN MY VIEW, WHEN TRACKING
00:25:48INFLATION, WAGE GROWTH HAS NOT
00:25:50PROVEN A RELIABLE INDICATOR OF
00:25:53FUTURE INFLATION FOR A VERY LONG TIME.
00:25:57SO TO TRY TO GAUGE UNDERLYING
00:26:00INFLATION, I WANT TO TELL YOU ABOUT A COUPLE OF THINGS I'VE ALWAYS LOOKED TO.
00:26:04I FIND IT INSTRUCTIVE TO
00:26:07DISAGGREGATE THE 199 INDIVIDUAL COMPONENTS OF THE PC PRICE
00:26:12MEASURE OVER THE LAST 12 MONTHS,
00:26:1554 54% OF GOODS AND SERVICES.
00:26:17THIS BASKET SHOWED PRICE INCREASES ABOVE 3%.
00:26:22THIS IS WELL BELOW THE POST-PANDEMIC HIGHS OF ABOUT 77%.
00:26:26BUT IT WELL ABOVE THE LEVEL OF
00:26:29THREE TWO IN A COUPLE OF THE THAT PRECEDED THE PANDEMIC.
00:26:33LOOKING OVER JUST THE LAST SIX MONTHS, THE CONCLUSION IS
00:26:37SIMILAR. 49% OF GOODS AND SERVICES THE PC
00:26:40BASKET SHOWED INCREASES ABOVE 3%
00:26:44AND THIS IS WELL BELOW THE POST-PANDEMIC HIGHS.
00:26:47BUT STILL ELEVATED, QUITE ELEVATED.
00:26:52RECENT RISE IN OVERALL COMMODITY PRICES.
00:26:54ALSO BEARS WATCHING.
00:26:56WHAT WE NEED TO JUDGE IS WHETHER
00:26:58THE TRENDS WE SEE INDICATE
00:27:00UPSIDE INFLATION.
00:27:04NOW IT MATTERS TO WHETHER THE INFLATION READINGS OF THE PAST
00:27:08YEARS HAVE SEEPED IN THE EXPECTED.
00:27:10THE GOOD IS THAT MEASURES OF
00:27:14INFLATION IN THE MEDIUM TERM, BY
00:27:16AND LARGE, LOOK STABLE AND
00:27:20INFLATION COMPENSATION MEASURES FROM THE SWAPS MARKET SEND A
00:27:24STRONG AND SIMILAR MESSAGE,
00:27:27ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT RECENT DEVELOPMENTS.
00:27:31IT'S A CREDIT TO THE FED AS AN
00:27:33INSTITUTION CONSISTENT WITH THE
00:27:36BEST OF THE FED'S TRADITIONS
00:27:38THAT MARKET PRICES CONFIDENCE
00:27:40THAT WE WILL DELIVER PRICE STABILITY.
00:27:44AND I CAN ASSURE YOU THEY'RE RIGHT.
00:27:47THE THING ABOUT MARKET MEASURES OF INFLATION EXPECTATIONS IN
00:27:50ECONOMIC HISTORY. I KNOW SOME ECONOMIC HISTORIANS
00:27:54IN THE AUDIENCE AS THEY ALL TEND TO LOOK REALLY STRONG AND
00:27:57DURABLE UNTIL THEY DON'T.
00:27:59THESE EXPECTATIONS ARE NOT PUSHED AROUND EASILY.
00:28:03AND RIGHT NOW THEY ARE VERY WELL
00:28:06ANCHORED, BUT THEY MUST BE CLOSELY MINDED.
00:28:08AND IT'S THE FED'S JOB TO MAKE
00:28:10SURE THAT INFLATION EXPECTATIONS
00:28:13DO NOT GET UNANCHORED.
00:28:16NOW IS ONE SIGNAL NOBODY CAN
00:28:18MISS RESPONSIBILITY FOR 65
00:28:21MONTHS OF SUSTAINED AND ELEVATED
00:28:24INFLATION SINCE WITH THE CENTRAL BANK.
00:28:28AND THAT'S WHERE IT BELONGS. SO HERE IS MY STANDARD.
00:28:32WE MUST BE CONFIDENT THAT
00:28:34UNDERLYING INFLATION IS MOVING TO OUR OBJECTIVE CLEARLY, AND
00:28:38THAT'S SUFFICIENT SPEED.
00:28:42OTHERWISE WE HAVE WORK TO DO. THAT'S OUR JOB.
00:28:44THAT'S OUR MANDATE. AND THAT'S OUR CHARGE TO KEEP.
00:28:48SO I'VE COVERED QUITE A BIT OF
00:28:51GROUND IN THE LAST 25 MINUTES OR SO. LET ME SEE.
00:28:54I CAN CONCLUDE THIS WAY.
00:28:56I STAND HERE TODAY COMMITTED TO
00:28:58A DISCIPLINE AND NOT A DECISION.
00:29:02MY FED AND I ARE HARDLY THE
00:29:06FIRST TO HOLD THESE POSITIONS IN
00:29:08A TIME OF GREAT CONSEQUENCE, WE
00:29:10ARE DETERMINED TO THE TIME BY
00:29:13OUR VERY BEST WORK.
00:29:16BUT THOSE OF US, THOSE OF YOU
00:29:18THAT KNOW US, YOU'LL KNOW THE FOLLOWING IS TRUE. WE TAKE OUR RESPONSIBILITIES
00:29:24SERIOUS WITH HUMILITY AND WITH RESOLVE.
00:29:28WE KNOW SO MUCH DEPENDS ON THE CHOICES WE MAKE.
00:29:33SOUND POLICY HELPS HOUSEHOLDS
00:29:36AND BUSINESSES TO PROSPER WHEN CARRIED OUT EFFECTIVELY.
00:29:40IT BROADENS AND DEEPENS THE
00:29:42MOMENTUM OF OUR ECONOMY AND HELPS TO SECURE AMERICA'S
00:29:46LEADERSHIP IN THE WORLD.
00:29:48AND I KNOW THAT COUNTRY NEEDS US
00:29:50TO THINK CAREFULLY, ACT WISELY.
00:29:54PERHAPS NOW MORE THAN EVER, IT'S
00:29:56A TREMENDOUS HONOR TO SERVE ONCE AGAIN AT THE FEDERAL RESERVE.
00:30:00TRULY GRATEFUL FOR THE ENCOURAGEMENT, GOOD COUNSEL AND
00:30:03THE WARM RECEPTION I'VE RECEIVED IN MY FIRST 100 DAYS FROM MY
00:30:07COLLEAGUES. I'M ALSO HONORED AND GRATEFUL
00:30:10FOR THE VIEWS THAT I'VE GOTTEN
00:30:12SOLICITED UNSOLICITED FROM SO MANY OF YOU IN THIS ROOM FOR
00:30:18THAT AND FOR YOUR KIND ATTENTION THIS MORNING, I SAY THANK YOU.
00:30:22LET'S GET ON WITH THE REST OF THE PROGRAM.
00:30:33JOINING US FROM THE JACKSON HOLE
00:30:37ECONOMIC SYMPOSIUM IN WYOMING IS, DAVID LYNCH, WASHINGTON POST
00:30:40GLOBAL ECONOMICS CORRESPONDENT. >> THANKS FOR BEING WITH US.
00:30:43WHAT DID YOU TAKE FROM TODAY'S
00:30:47FIRST SPEECH AT THIS.
00:31:02FROM THE NEW FEDERAL RESERVE CHAIR, KEVIN WARSH? WELL, I THINK MR. WARSH WAS TRYING TO DO A COUPLE OF THINGS TODAY, AND HE MADE PROGRESS ON SOME OF HIS OBJECTIVES.
00:31:06INVESTORS BEEN CONCERNED IN THE WAKE. HIS PRESS CONFERENCE LAST MONTH,
00:31:07WHICH LEFT THEM AS TO HOW THE
00:31:10FED WAS EVALUATING THE INFLATION
00:31:13PROBLEM IN THE ECONOMY, HOW IT MIGHT RESPOND TO IT.
00:31:16AND HOW THE CHAIRMAN IN PARTICULAR WOULD RESPOND.
00:31:19AND I THINK TODAY'S SPEECH MADE
00:31:23CLEAR THAT MR. WARSH IS NOT
00:31:25SATISFIED WITH THE CURRENT STATE
00:31:28OF PLAY WITH INFLATION.
00:31:30HE SAYS THE FED STILL HAS MORE
00:31:32TO DO AND TRIED TO PROVIDE A
00:31:36LITTLE BIT OF OF A SENSE OF HE'S
00:31:40THINKING ABOUT THESE THINGS
00:31:44WITHOUT DOING SOMETHING THAT HE
00:31:46SEES AS INAPPROPRIATE, WHICH IS A TERM CALLED FORWARD GUIDANCE
00:31:50THAT THE FED HAD GOTTEN INTO THE BUSINESS IN THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL
00:31:54CRISIS 2008 OF TELLING MARKETS
00:31:56EXPLICITLY WE'RE TAKING THESE
00:31:58STEPS AND GOING TO CONTINUE FOR
00:32:00A PERIOD OF TIME. AND SO YOU CAN COUNT ON THAT
00:32:04ENVIRONMENT AND.
00:32:05WARSH ONCE INVESTORS TO MAKE UP
00:32:09THEIR OWN MIND ABOUT STOCKS
00:32:11BONDS WITHOUT GETTING A OF
00:32:13ADDITIONAL INFORMATION FROM THE
00:32:15FED AND THAT CHANGE OF POLICY IS
00:32:19WHAT'S LEFT. A LOT OF PEOPLE.
00:32:21>> WHAT HAS BEEN YOU'VE SEEN THE
00:32:24INVESTORS RESPONSE THIS. ARE THEY NOW A LITTLE BIT MORE SETTLED.
00:32:28>> WELL, I THINK THEY THEY TOOK
00:32:30AWAY WHAT THEY SAW AS OF AS A
00:32:32HAWKISH TONE IN HIS SPEECH. IN OTHER WORDS, THEY IF YOU LOOK
00:32:36AT FUTURES TRADING, THERE'S NOW
00:32:40SOMETHING 60% OF TRADERS EXPECT
00:32:42THE FED TO RAISE RATES AT ITS NEXT MEETING, WHICH IS IN THE
00:32:45MIDDLE OF SEPTEMBER. YESTERDAY, IT WAS ONLY ABOUT A
00:32:49THIRD OF INVESTORS. SO JUST FROM THE SPEECH,
00:32:51INVESTORS HAVE GOTTEN THE SENSE THAT THE CHAIRMAN'S FOCUSED THIS
00:32:55AND THAT HE IS WILLING TO GO
00:32:59ALONG WITH RATE INCREASES EVEN IF HE'S NOT ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT
00:33:03IT, BECAUSE HIS BOSS, THE PRESIDENT, CERTAINLY DOES WANT RATES TO GO UP.
00:33:06HE WANTS IT TO GO DOWN. BUT WARSH MADE IT CLEAR, I
00:33:09THINK, THAT HE WOULD GO ALONG WITH RATE INCREASES IF THE
00:33:13INFLATION DATA DOESN'T PRETTY
00:33:18QUICKLY.
00:33:22AND C-SPAN'S WASHINGTON JOURNAL,
00:33:25OUR LIVE FORUM INVITING YOU TO DISCUSS THE LATEST ISSUES IN
00:33:29GOVERNMENT, POLITICS AND PUBLIC POLICY FROM WASHINGTON AND ACROSS THE COUNTRY.
00:33:32>> COMING UP THIS MORNING, WE'LL TALK THE IMPACT OF THE NEW TRADE
00:33:36WAR BETWEEN THE U.S. AND CANADA WITH CARLOAD AID.
00:33:39DIRECTOR OF INTERNATIONAL POLICY AT THE UNIVERSITY OF CALGARY AND
00:33:43AGRO, CONGRESSIONAL AND TRADE EDITOR OLIVIA BRIDGES.
00:33:46ON THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION TEMPORARILY LIFTING BEEF TARIFFS
00:33:49IN, AN EFFORT TO LOWER PRICES, C-SPAN'S WASHINGTON JOURNAL
00:33:52JOINING THE CONVERSATION. LIVE AT SEVEN EASTERN THIS
00:33:56MORNING ON C-SPAN, C-SPAN NOW
00:33:58OUR FREE MOBILE APP OR ONLINE AT
00:34:02C-SPAN DOT ORG.
00:34:08>> THIS FALL, CONGRESS GETS BACK
00:34:10TO WORK AND THERE'S A LOT ON THE AGENDA. THE HOUSE RETURNS ON MONDAY FROM
00:34:14THEIR SUMMER RECESS FOR A WEEK OF INCLUDING LEGISLATION TO FUND
00:34:17THE GOVERNMENT. THE SEPTEMBER 30TH DEADLINE THROUGH DECEMBER 11.
00:34:21THE SENATE PASSED THE MEASURE EARLIER THIS MONTH, AND THEN ON SEPTEMBER 14TH, BOTH THE HOUSE
00:34:25AND THE SENATE WILL BE IN SESSION. HOUSE LAWMAKERS WILL ALSO TAKE
00:34:28UP LEGISLATION IMPOSING SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA AND IRAN,
00:34:32NAMED IN HONOR OF THE LATE SENATOR LINDSEY GRAHAM AND ALREADY PASSED BY THE SENATE.
00:34:36THE SENATE SET TO CONSIDER THE CLARITY ACT THAT WASHINGTON
00:34:39REGULATORY FRAMEWORK FOR DIGITAL. ALONG WITH A GOP BUDGET
00:34:44RESOLUTION, DEFENSE, FARM AID AND ID AND SENATORS WILL
00:34:46CONSIDER LEGISLATION ON ESTABLISHING NATIONAL STANDARDS
00:34:50FOR COMPENSATING COLLEGE ATHLETES FOR THE USE THEIR NAME, IMAGE AND LIKENESS.
00:34:55WATCH AS CONGRESS RETURNS THIS FALL ON THE C-SPAN NETWORKS.
00:34:58C-SPAN DEMOCRACY, THE
00:35:03UNFILTERED. >> STAYING INFORMED IS
00:35:07ESSENTIAL. THE C-SPAN SHOP HAS THE APPAREL
00:35:09TO MATCH YOUR CIVIC ENERGY PREMIUM T-SHIRTS, HATS AND
00:35:13DRINKWARE. EVERY FAVORITES FOR THOSE
00:35:16PASSIONATE ABOUT POLITICS THROUGH C-SPAN.
00:35:19THERE'S FOR EVERY C-SPAN FAN AND
00:35:22EVERY PURCHASE HELPS SUPPORT OUR NONPROFIT OPERATIONS.
00:35:24SHOP NOW OR ANYTIME ONLINE AT
00:35:28C-SPAN SHOP, DAWG.
00:35:30GEAR FOR ENGAGEMENT.
00:35:34>> PRESIDENT TRUMP TRAVELED TO
00:35:36HOUSTON TO TAKE PART IN AN AWARD CEREMONY PRESENTING THE
00:35:38CONGRESSIONAL SPACE OF HONOR TO NASA'S AS CREW MEMBERS.
00:35:42AND AFTERWARDS SPOKE WITH ASTRONAUTS ON THE INTERNATIONAL
00:35:45SPACE STATION.
00:35:47HERE'S A LOOK.