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00:00:30Good afternoon, this is Radio Svoboda, you are watching the Present Time TV channel,
00:00:34this is the Archeology program, in the studio Sergey
00:00:36Medvedev. 86 years ago, in the summer
00:00:40of 1940, the USSR occupied and then
00:00:43annexed the three Baltic countries. Since then, they
00:00:46have regained their independence, strengthened their sovereignty, and joined the
00:00:50EU and NATO. However, today Moscow is again threatening these
00:00:53countries. Is a new Russian
00:00:56attack possible? What is the position of the Russian-speaking residents of the Baltics?
00:01:00And what is the future of small countries in the era of global wars?
00:01:04We will talk about this in our program today in Anton
00:01:07Sergienko's report.
00:01:11In the summer of 1940, the Soviet Union annexed
00:01:15Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia. Half a century later, these
00:01:18countries regained independence, joined NATO and the European
00:01:21Union, becoming an important part of the Western security
00:01:24system. But after the start of the full-scale war in Ukraine, the Baltic
00:01:28countries once again found themselves at the center of discussions about a possible Russian
00:01:32threat. Today, Moscow regularly accuses the Baltic countries of
00:01:35Russophobia and militarization. And
00:01:38Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia are actively strengthening their borders,
00:01:41increasing military spending, and hosting additional
00:01:45NATO forces on their territory. Most analysts believe that
00:01:49a direct Russian attack on a member country of the alliance
00:01:52would mean the risk of war with the entire bloc or with the so-called
00:01:56coalition of the willing, which makes such a scenario extremely dangerous.
00:02:08The issue of security is not an abstract topic, but the basis of
00:02:12state policy. Today, the future of the Baltic countries depends not
00:02:15only on their own decisions, but also on the outcome of Russia's war
00:02:19against Ukraine, and with it the entire architecture of European
00:02:23security.
00:02:27That was a report by Anton Sergienko. Joining us via
00:02:30Zoom is political scientist and former Minister of
00:02:34Defense of Latvia from 2023-2026, and
00:02:37now a member of the Saeima of the Republic of Latvia, Andris
00:02:50of Minister of Defense, did you feel a growing
00:02:54threat of attack from Russia and how is this
00:02:57perceived in Latvia today?
00:03:01Russia has always posed a constant threat,
00:03:05a constant danger. After 2022, after the
00:03:09aggression against Ukraine, Russia became the main threat to
00:03:12its neighbors, including Latvia. Therefore, of course,
00:03:16there was no time to think in terms of fear, about what could
00:03:20happen if we were not ready. So, of course,
00:03:23the most important task was to prepare together with our NATO and EU
00:03:27allies, but at the same time we had to.
00:06:23That is why the airspace is not completely closed, units are deployed
00:06:27at the border, however, there are certain
00:06:30restrictions. Drone incidents serve
00:06:33as another reminder of the importance of continuously working on
00:06:37the development of technologies, both of the drones themselves and of the means
00:06:40to counter them.
00:09:12However, the most important thing is the presence of NATO troops and equipment,
00:09:16as well as the existence of plans that allow for the rapid deployment
00:09:19of additional forces from other countries. This is about creating
00:09:23a holistic defense architecture, from battalions of brigades to divisions and
00:09:26corps. This is precisely what is crucial, and this
00:09:30work is currently underway. Regional defense plans are quite
00:09:34feasible and implementable, but of course, at the heart of it all lies the main
00:09:38principle: security guarantees must always be in effect, and confidence
00:09:42in them -
00:10:31There are different levels here. On the one hand, NATO is an alliance of thirty-
00:10:35two states where Article five on mutual support in case of
00:10:39aggression applies. This is the most important basis of the alliance and the defense
00:10:42system, including for Latvia. At the same time,
00:10:45there are also countries in the region that share similar views. You
00:10:48mentioned the Nordic countries: the Baltics, Poland, Germany, the Netherlands,
00:10:52the United Kingdom, and also Canada, the country leading the brigade
00:10:56here in Latvia. Therefore, regional rapprochement
00:10:59and joint activities in the region, including with the participation of
00:11:03Ukraine, should certainly be encouraged and supported. Ukraine has
00:11:06extremely important experience, knowledge, and fighters who have gone through
00:11:09real battles. That is why, while serving as minister, I
00:11:13firmly believe in the need for active cooperation with the Ukrainian
00:11:16side. We need to learn from their experience in countering
00:11:19drones, and also to master and implement technologies and
00:11:22the culture of their use. states,
00:11:34but we supplement
00:11:37it with various regional initiatives and cooperation
00:11:39formats, including, as you noted, with the participation of
00:11:43Ukraine, for example, within the framework of the activities
00:11:46of the Joint Expeditionary Force,
00:11:49led by the United Kingdom. For us, this is an opportunity to expand the existing
00:11:52format.
00:11:58Do you think Ukraine should be given the opportunity
00:12:01for early accession
00:12:03to NATO?
00:12:07I am personally convinced, and this conviction is firmly shared here in Latvia,
00:12:11that Ukraine should become the thirty-third member of NATO, and as soon as
00:12:14possible. At the same time, we respect the formula adopted at
00:12:18the NATO summit in Vilnius in 2023.
00:12:21Ukraine will become a member of the alliance when the allies reach an agreement
00:12:25and circumstances allow. At the moment, there is no agreement among all
00:12:28participants.
00:12:29no.
00:12:33Do you think it is possible to overcome such regional and
00:12:37pan-European differences between NATO members, because,
00:12:41as I already mentioned, on the one hand we see the eastern and northern
00:12:44flanks, and on the other hand, the Mediterranean flank.
00:12:48Is it possible to establish mutual understanding between
00:12:51the Mediterranean and northern flanks of NATO?
00:12:56In general, yes, the approach that provides for the protection of every member
00:12:59of the alliance, every inch of NATO territory, the so-called
00:13:03360° approach, is a completely obvious
00:13:06thing. This principle is clearly enshrined in NATO's strategic concept
00:13:10and is consistently reflected in the final declarations of all
00:13:13alliance summits. Russia poses the main threat to
00:13:17NATO allies and partners. At the same time, discussions are undoubtedly
00:13:20taking place within the alliance, which are not always
00:13:24smooth. And sometimes they are quite difficult. It is known that there have been
00:13:28disagreements between Greece and Turkey for several
00:13:31decades. Therefore, of course, one cannot ignore the complexity
00:13:34of the union's structure, which unites 32
00:13:37states. But still, I am convinced that the common goal is to create
00:13:41NATO 3.0, as it is sometimes called, including in the context
00:13:44of increasing defense spending to 5% of GDP.
00:13:47It is to make the alliance more combat-ready
00:13:51and resilient. In addition, now is the best time for...
00:14:56I would not like to go into details, as regional plans are not
00:14:59public documents, however, the very fact
00:15:02of their existence confirms that NATO develops such plans taking into
00:15:05account various scenarios. In addition,
00:15:08Latvia has its own national defense plan, which provides
00:15:12for specific procedures in case of the implementation of certain
00:15:15scenarios. I repeat, the most rigid
00:15:19scenario would be a full-scale invasion of the Baltic countries.
00:15:22The minimum we are already facing is hybrid threats,
00:15:26they are constantly present. That is
00:15:29why there are various plans to respond to different
00:15:31scenarios. We must be ready for all the options
00:15:35you mentioned. whether it's Suwalki, Daugavpils
00:15:39or Narva. Of course, these are critically important and risky
00:15:43directions that must be taken into account. I want to emphasize
00:15:46once again: Narva, Daugavpils, Suwalki, and
00:15:49other similar places, this is not just Latvia or Estonia,
00:15:53this is NATO territory. The situation is different from
00:15:56Ukraine, despite all the difficulties Russia is facing in
00:16:00Ukraine, it is Ukraine that is fighting Russia with the support of NATO,
00:16:03the European Union, and Latvia. In the case of Latvia, any. mines,
00:17:23so now we can use them legally.
00:17:27Five states, Finland, three Baltic countries and Poland, withdrew
00:17:31from the Ottawa Convention, because we are convinced that to protect our
00:17:35citizens, everything possible must be done. "We must have
00:17:38all the necessary means in case one of those negative
00:17:42scenarios is realized, which we must take into account and prepare
00:17:46for. Preparation for defense serves as a deterrent,
00:17:48the aggressor will simply break his teeth if he really
00:17:52decides on any actions. That is why
00:17:55it is so important not only to build defensive lines on the ground,
00:17:58but also, as you already mentioned, to ensure air defense
00:18:01in the airspace. The creation of air defense
00:18:04systems is one of the top priorities for.
00:19:37danger, says military expert Yuri
00:19:40Fedorov.
00:19:44Yes, as long as the war is going on in Ukraine, no
00:19:47war, well, at least a war of the classical type, and even
00:19:50a neo-classical one, that is, with widespread
00:19:54use of drones and so
00:19:57on, simply cannot happen, there will not be enough
00:20:01forces, there will not be enough capabilities, including
00:20:04material capabilities, maybe there will be enough people.
00:20:07But there will hardly be enough iron. Another
00:20:11question is that in the conditions of the war with Ukraine,
00:20:14Russia may resort to a number of
00:20:18hybrid actions, well, for example, constant
00:20:21threats, all sorts of attempts at
00:20:25political destabilization,
00:20:29such demonstrative semi-strikes,
00:20:32incomplete strikes with the help of or
00:20:36by means of missiles or
00:20:39drones, well, for example, what happened in
00:20:42Poland, you see, a missile flies,
00:20:45right, it didn't kill anyone, it didn't damage anything.
00:20:49nothing.
00:21:20level of full-scale
00:21:23war, that's what I would say, so to speak, if we talk
00:21:27about attempts at internal political destabilization
00:21:31using all sorts
00:21:33of proxy groups, but this is most likely, if we talk
00:21:37about Estonia, Narva and some adjacent
00:21:41areas, but at the same time, we need to understand
00:21:45that the authorities in Estonia, as I understand, well, I
00:21:49hope that they are ready to
00:21:52suppress, and quite decisively, any
00:21:55attempts at destabilization, well,
00:21:58something like what happened in
00:22:02Donbas or in Donbas in 2014-2015.
00:22:05In Latvia, this is most likely
00:22:09the Daugavpils region, there is indeed
00:22:13a demographic situation there, rather
00:22:16with a predominance, well, I can't say a predominance, but with... with
00:22:20a large percentage
00:22:23of ethnic Russian minority,
00:22:26but again, it very much depends on how
00:22:29local authorities will react,
00:22:33the same Suwalki corridor, but you see, it's even more complicated here, because
00:22:37in order to try,
00:22:41then in some way
00:22:43to seize this corridor, you need, you need
00:22:46Minsk's consent, you need Belarus's consent.
00:23:23That was Yuri Fedorov in the report of our correspondent Anton
00:23:26Sergienko. And joining us via Zoom is political scientist,
00:23:29professor at the University of
00:23:38of Narva, Narva Ivangorod, Narva
00:23:41fortress, that very Narva bridge, which,
00:23:45our acquaintance journalist Arkady
00:23:48Babchenko advises to destroy, right, to
00:23:52separate Russia from Estonia. I know that you have spent a lot of
00:23:55time in Narva and have been to this city many times, I want to
00:23:59ask you, as a person who knows the situation on the ground,
00:24:02how much of a conflict point is this really? All these talks about the Narva
00:24:06Republic, about the Narva Russians, about all this
00:24:09Eastern Estonia? I am afraid that I will not be able to answer this
00:24:13question briefly, but I will start by saying that this is a very polemical
00:24:16topic. And
00:24:20I think that if we look a little
00:24:23deeper into modern history,
00:24:27then this conflict tension began not in 2022,
00:24:31but much earlier, because
00:24:34if we look, for example, at the annual reports of the Estonian security police
00:24:37KaPo, it was also obvious from the late 1990s
00:24:41that Russia is perceived, unlike most other
00:24:44European countries, in Estonia, not so much as a partner or just
00:24:48a neighbor, but rather...
00:25:50that such discussions are inappropriate
00:25:53in this context, and moreover, they play into the hands
00:25:57of Kremlin propaganda, I say this to show
00:26:00that even between allies... I mean Ukraine and Estonia,
00:26:04there is a different perception of
00:26:07the issue we are discussing
00:26:09now. What is this first logic based on, that
00:26:13in fact there are some
00:26:15analogies, some parallels, one needs to be very careful about them, I think
00:26:19that there are several factors of Estonia's
00:26:21vulnerability, many of them are of a, shall we say, global,
00:26:25structural nature, well, for example, now
00:26:28it is becoming completely obvious that aggression.
00:27:32only with the partnership of Finnish
00:27:34colleagues, well, that's from the point of view of, so to speak, hard
00:27:38security, this hardvera, from the point of view of
00:27:41software, to what extent is
00:27:44the soil in the very east of Narva,
00:27:48Kohtla-Järve, Narva,
00:27:52to what extent can this be compared with the situation in Donbas and
00:27:54the population, say, exposed to Russian
00:27:58propaganda, to what extent are they ready for such a...
00:28:01not very big, I'll explain why I'm talking about the distance, because there are several such
00:29:24polarizing points
00:29:27each year that provide
00:29:30fertile ground for discussion on this topic, of course, May
00:29:349th is the most famous of them,
00:29:38I was in Narva this May
00:29:419th, and I saw what
00:29:45the phenomenon I call sound
00:29:48aggression means, you can call it some kind of visual diplomacy, in
00:29:52quotes, musical diplomacy, but it is actually
00:29:55a special operation
00:29:59for uh for...
00:30:32noted May 9 as Victory Day, and
00:30:36quantitatively, the number of people who came to the shore
00:30:40to watch what was
00:30:43happening at this so-called patriotic concert in
00:30:46Ivangorod was, in my observation, still
00:30:50more than the number
00:30:53of people celebrating May 9 as Europe Day, and this
00:30:56is certainly a factor that acts regularly, this is not the first.