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00:04:47Why did I choose this topic at all, because it is clear
00:04:51that our listener is predominantly a voter
00:04:55of the Centre Party, so the fluctuations in
00:04:58the rating of this party. they are quite remarkable,
00:05:02but by and large, that is,
00:05:05one can say that, well, yes, that is, I agree with the opinion
00:05:08of Andrey Shumakov that since the Centrists in Tallinn are in power.
00:05:12or in power, then it is clear
00:05:16that close attention is paid to them, but here something else is interesting,
00:05:19it is much more remarkable that the Social Democrats, according
00:05:23to this study, caught up in popularity with the Centrists, and
00:05:26it is remarkable that the rating of the Reform Party increased, again, who
00:05:30is in power, who is not in power, the reformists are in power, they
00:05:33have been beating these
00:05:36anti-records of their own popularity constantly
00:05:39for the last months, or even years, now they have a trend towards
00:05:43an increase, and in many ways, again, thanks to the fact that they
00:05:46are in power, they are visible, and things in the country as a whole, as
00:05:50it were, are not bad, especially in the economy, yes, we
00:05:54now have certain alarming moments here, related to
00:05:57the rise in fuel prices, it is unknown what winter will bring, but at least
00:06:01now things have improved for the reformists, and if
00:06:05their statement that in the next parliamentary elections it is quite realistic
00:06:08for them to get 20 parliamentary
00:06:11mandates, based on the latest alignment of sociologists,
00:06:14this no longer
00:06:16looks like the reformists simply bounced off the bottom, so
00:06:20to speak,
00:06:22that is, there was nowhere to fall further anyway, they, it seems to me, in their rating
00:06:26have already reached the size of their own core
00:06:29audience, and this rating simply could not
00:06:33decrease
00:06:33under current circumstances.
00:06:40since we have already started talking about some preferences among.
00:07:12in slang, and why do you think that the majority of voters would like it,
00:07:16because such research data came out this week, again, but
00:07:20we, you see, we still
00:07:23have a coalition formed by the party
00:07:26that won the elections, so people influence this very
00:07:29indirectly, and somehow simply
00:07:33sum up the ratings of these
00:07:37three parties, but it seems to me that we rarely have such
00:07:40a situation.
00:07:42we rarely have a coalition formed in this way,
00:07:45so I, probably, if we have
00:07:49some dispute now, I will bet that there will be no
00:07:52coalition in this form. Andrey, your opinion? Well, why
00:07:56not, as they say, experience is already available, but
00:08:00in the end, everything will be decided by
00:08:03parliamentary mathematics, that is, when it is already clear
00:08:07how many mandates each specific political
00:08:11force has, then ...
00:10:13Titov correctly noted that we do not yet
00:10:16know how we will get to spring, that
00:10:19is, what else can happen during this time, we have certain
00:10:23questions with fuel, yes, we will obviously start the heating
00:10:26season, and it will start, right, and what will
00:10:30happen to prices, it is also not very clear, and this
00:10:33will, of course, affect everything very much, but if we look only at the current
00:10:37situation, then yes, and it seems to me that this statement
00:10:40is such, I would even call it almost indisputable, yes
00:10:4320 mandates, yes, if we look at what is happening outside the window, then
00:10:47we want to start the heating season now, in general, very soon
00:10:51the batteries will work,
00:10:53utility bills. Speaking of, they said yesterday that a warm
00:10:57wave will still come, yes, but utility bills will inevitably creep up,
00:11:01what is happening at our gas stations is a separate story about reducing
00:11:04excises, unlike many countries, including
00:11:07our closest neighbors, Latvians, our government
00:11:10does not want to think, so all this can, of course, play against
00:11:14the Reform Party, but again, there is still a lot of time ahead, all these latest
00:11:18events, even despite a major scandal in the defense
00:11:21sector, it seems to me that they in a certain sense ...
00:11:25play even into the hands of the reformists, because they replaced
00:11:28the Minister of Defense, who found himself
00:11:31at the center of this whole scandalous story, and the new Minister
00:11:35of Defense, well, we will probably soon have
00:11:39popularity and authority ratings of certain
00:11:42government members, it seems to me that the new Minister of Defense will get pretty good
00:11:46marks there, because well, you can hear from all
00:11:49sides literally that a real
00:11:53man has finally come and he ... I mean Martin Herrem, the former
00:11:56commander of the defense forces, he is sympathetic to many, well,
00:12:00plus they introduced a new face into the cabinet
00:12:03of ministers, this is Liina Vahter,
00:12:06yes, she may not be so well known
00:12:10to the general public, but these few months in office will clearly
00:12:13make her such a magnet for voters by
00:12:16the March elections, and Herrem too, by the way, despite the fact that he initially
00:12:20almost immediately made it a condition that he would not run
00:12:23and ...
00:13:29here
00:13:30now.
00:13:34One more line, one news: Vladimir Svet will become
00:13:38an adviser to the elected President Jüri Madis by
00:13:41internal policy issues. Well, good luck,
00:13:44probably, yes? Good luck, of course, I wouldn't say it's an unexpected
00:13:48appointment, given that Vladimir Svet once
00:13:51worked in the bureau of the Chancellor of Justice.
00:14:56which accompanies this budget topic
00:15:00for next year. The first point we will start
00:15:03right away, so to speak, without introductions, is
00:15:06that the Estonian government has agreed to limit the state budget deficit
00:15:10next year at 4% of
00:15:13GDP. Recall that in principle, according to forecasts, it was either
00:15:174.9%, or 4.4%. And
00:15:20now, after this consensus was reached,
00:15:24the prime minister.
00:15:38250 million, well, indeed
00:15:41a small figure, I'm not talking about the sum now, a small figure, 250
00:15:45million, a small
00:15:48figure, if you look at our country's budget in
00:15:51general, I understand that detractors and ordinary citizens
00:15:55again will now compare 250
00:15:58million with the scandal in the same defense
00:16:01forces, that is, in the Ministry of Defense regarding the purchase
00:16:04of ammunition for 70 million, who says more?
00:16:09But still, this first point, that
00:16:12the deficit will be at the level of four, this
00:16:16can be considered what?
00:16:19A victory, a compromise,
00:16:22or some kind of hopelessness or what
00:16:25is it? And why is it hopelessness? It seems to me that this is quite
00:16:29a positive moment, and it just fits into that
00:16:32concept that I was talking about, this is such a calm defense from
00:16:35the government.
00:17:37We will talk about fuel and excises today or can we jump ahead a bit
00:17:41we will, we will, let's, we will, let's, we will okay, so when we talk about
00:17:44fuel, I will say why 250
00:17:47million is, on the one hand, a small, and on the other
00:17:50hand, not a small amount, okay, also about the budget
00:17:54like this, yes, very interesting, yes, don't
00:17:56switch channels
00:17:59I said that there are two points, we discussed the first, the second point is also
00:18:03there, but for it I will make a small
00:18:06introduction. The government plans to increase the wage fund for teachers,
00:18:10police officers, rescuers, and cultural workers by 3%. Well,
00:18:14how exactly these funds will be distributed within
00:18:17the respective spheres will be decided by the ministries and subordinate
00:18:21institutions, and Mihal also reported that the tax
00:18:24burden will decrease to 35.2% next
00:18:27year, for comparison, last year it was
00:18:3136.2, in the current 35.5,
00:18:34I apologize, here ... here is my
00:18:38second introductory part, what do you think, is it just me
00:18:41or do you also think that why are already
00:18:45specific things regarding, including
00:18:48the increase in the wage fund in the respective categories,
00:18:52announced by Kristina Kallas, the leader of the E-200
00:18:55party, everything is clear, she is like the second coalition
00:18:59partner, I mean the E200 party, and
00:19:02why this topic
00:19:05of salary increase ...
00:19:08should have been announced by Kristina Kallas, is there some
00:19:11political technological thing
00:19:14behind it? I'm not ready to analyze political technologies here, but it seems
00:19:18to me that this is related to the teachers' strike
00:19:21that took place this week,
00:19:24and since teachers demanded salaries and since
00:19:28it was Kristina Kallas who said that we don't have
00:19:31this reserve, to raise teachers' salaries,
00:19:35then she had to explain that there is still some
00:19:39reserve, some money is still available, and somehow
00:19:42some demands can be resolved. But if we are talking
00:19:46about increasing, for example, also from the sphere of cultural
00:19:49workers, police officers, rescuers, well,
00:19:53police officers and rescuers are the sphere of the Ministry of Internal
00:19:56Affairs, the Ministry of Internal Affairs is headed by a party member with Kristina Kallas, so
00:20:00therefore here everything is absolutely logical,
00:20:03culture, yes, the Ministry of Culture is under the Reform Party.
00:20:07Heidi Purga could have put in a good word for it,
00:20:11well, I don't know, I'm more inclined, probably,
00:20:14to second Andrey Shumakov that
00:20:16there is no very
00:20:20serious ulterior motive here,
00:20:23rather just a coincidence, yes, since there was a specific information occasion in
00:20:27the form of a warning strike by teachers, they started with that as the main thing, and mentioned
00:20:31the rest for good measure, well, and now we read other news
00:20:35that, for example, teachers' unions they...
00:20:50Well, Jorgen Ligi, of course, said in his usual manner,
00:20:54that the tone annoys him, not in that tone, not in that tone
00:20:58is a salary increase required, but still
00:21:01this rare case when in many ways one can
00:21:05agree with Jorgen Ligi, and not even
00:21:08from the point of view of what he mentioned about the tone,
00:21:12but from the point of view of what he mentioned about other spheres that are categorically
00:21:16underfunded, and there was no salary increase.
00:21:20there will not be, for example, the social sphere, yes, the social sphere, Jürgens touched on this
00:21:24topic, that, like, why don't we say anything about the social network,
00:21:27sphere? In general, there are many spheres
00:21:30that are not so, perhaps, well-known, yes,
00:21:33teachers, this is important, no one
00:21:36says that these are people who do not deserve a good
00:21:40salary, the same applies to police officers and rescuers -
00:21:43this is our safety, in the end,
00:21:46but we should not belittle the merits
00:21:50of representatives of other professions, in the end, again, returning to
00:21:54the conversation about that very state budget deficit,
00:21:57we come to the conclusion that funds are limited, no
00:22:01matter how you look at it, in this regard, even 3%
00:22:05growth that was proposed, well, it's still better than
00:22:08nothing, yes, and the same, by the way, Heidi Purga,
00:22:11the Minister of Culture from the Reform Party, she also said that, excuse me, but
00:22:153% is also money, especially this
00:22:19week ... a graph came across, I think it was in
00:22:22the newspaper Eestipäevaleht, where it was said that
00:22:26our teachers, if you take this
00:22:29regional picture across
00:22:32different regions, then our teachers in all
00:22:35counties, except Harju and Tartu,
00:22:38receive above average salaries for the county, that is, in
00:22:42general, teachers are already quite well
00:22:46paid employees, if you take ... this kind of cross-section by
00:22:50counties, yes, only in Harju and Tartu, where the average
00:22:53salary is slightly higher, teachers receive a little less,
00:22:57well, it seems to me, and in Viru County it's the opposite, yes, in Viru County, teachers
00:23:00are generally, one might say, a privileged class, considering the 1.5
00:23:04coefficient that applies to their salaries, by the way, doctors too, I
00:23:07listened today, no,
00:23:11yes, a member of the board of the Narva hospital, that is, a member of the management,
00:23:14sorry, well, there are
00:23:17solid bonuses, additions. That is,
00:23:20indeed, those who are interested can
00:23:23go either as a teacher or as a medical
00:23:26worker, but at the same time, please note that this
00:23:29migration from conditional
00:23:33Võru or Paide to Narva, again, conditional
00:23:36Narva for teachers and doctors, still did not happen,
00:23:40still people mass migration did not happen, it
00:23:43is there, very isolated, it is very
00:23:46isolated, yes, that is, what's the problem, Andrey, huh?
00:23:50Well, I don't know what exactly the problem is, those teachers, before the region as
00:23:53such, it seems to me that it is still difficult for a person
00:23:57to change their well-established place, a person must have very strong
00:24:01motivation, and even a difference of 500 euros, for example, in salary, yes, that's a pretty
00:24:05serious difference, still, it
00:24:07still does not act as such a strong motivator, people come
00:24:11who, for example, want to be in a different language environment, several
00:24:15interlocutors on Delfi told us that they came
00:24:19to improve their Russian.
00:24:30that story didn't happen, well, in Finland too, by the way, the same Estonian doctors also
00:24:33became less likely to go there, and
00:24:37now Andrey, let's talk about excise in a few
00:24:39seconds, here
00:24:43now,
00:24:49as ... correctly noted, if you look at the cost
00:24:53of diesel fuel, for example, at our
00:24:55gas stations, then yes, this is a separate
00:24:58story, a separate one, what, Andrey, a week ago, just
00:25:02such a remark from personal experience, I
00:25:05usually always fill up the tank when my car informs me
00:25:09that the gas is running out, not gas, I
00:25:12have a diesel, I drive up to the gas station insert the nozzle and
00:25:15wait for the tank to fill up, a week ago, when ...
00:25:20I saw these prices at gas stations, I may have, for the first time in my life, not filled
00:25:23the tank completely, because a full tank would mean a three-digit number,
00:25:27psychologically I was not ready for this. That's how,
00:25:30Andrey, you justify the stereotypes of some of our listeners
00:25:34about how rich Russian-speaking journalists
00:25:37in Estonia are, a full tank in them, so I didn't fill
00:25:41the tank completely, you see, it's just the opposite, yes, all
00:25:44teachers in Virumaa,
00:25:47and if we talk further about excises, then... it's clear
00:25:51that everyone compares
00:25:54the policy on this issue with neighboring countries, in the same Latvia, where
00:25:57the government decided to reduce fuel excises, we generally read this
00:26:01week that...
00:26:32Why do we, well, not we, but why does our Ministry of Finance
00:26:36so categorically insist that this should not be done, but it seems
00:26:40to me that we had a story that we wanted to raise these excises
00:26:44even more, we once abandoned this increase, that is, we already
00:26:47had, apparently, some amount allocated for this, we have already abandoned it, but
00:26:51where else to retreat?
00:26:54There is one mathematical trick, I am not
00:26:58claiming that it will turn out the same.
00:27:00Still, you need to sit down and calculate carefully, but the trick
00:27:04is that by lowering excises, the overall
00:27:07revenues of the state from the sale
00:27:10of fuel will not decrease, because due to the increased price,
00:27:14the state receives more in the form
00:27:18of turnover tax,
00:27:21that's how it is, yes, well, you get the idea, right,
00:27:25so therefore, reducing the excise tax does not mean anything for the state budget,
00:27:29and now to the question of those 250 million. In the teaser
00:27:32about which there was talk 10 minutes ago,
00:27:35look, in Latvia they lowered the excise tax
00:27:38and this can reduce
00:27:41the price per liter of motor fuel for the end
00:27:44consumer by approximately 20 cents, I thought it was
00:27:489 cents, 9, I got
00:27:5120, okay, if 9, then it's actually funny, let's
00:27:55take 20, let's go all out, 20 cents per
00:27:58liter, the average tank of an average
00:28:02car is 45 liters, so 20 times
00:28:0545 is 9 euros per tank
00:28:08a person saves, well, how many times a month does a person fill up, well, on
00:28:12average, again, with our driving, twice a month, yes, twice
00:28:16a month, 9 times 2 equals 18, 18
00:28:19euros is less
00:28:22than 10% of the average salary, well, what less than 10, less
00:28:25than 1%, less than one, less than 1% of the average national
00:28:29salary, this is less than what people pay for internet per month.
00:28:33Can we talk about this as a serious saving and break
00:28:37spears over it? Probably not. Now to the question of 250
00:28:40million. 250 million is roughly 1% of the
00:28:44state budget. Now, if you compare these two
00:28:48figures, 18 euros for an ordinary person or 250
00:28:51million euros for the state budget, then answer the
00:28:55question yourself: is it a lot or a little? That is, it turns out that Jorgen
00:28:58Ligi, the Minister of Finance of the Republic of Estonia at the present time,
00:29:02he is much smarter than the Minister of Finance of 93, 94
00:29:06countries in the world, well, here
00:29:09one cannot assert so categorically, because we
00:29:13know little about these 93 countries, if we do not take neighboring Latvia, about
00:29:16which we know more, as it were, yes, about these 93
00:29:20countries we know little at all, what exactly are the tax measures, there, there may be
00:29:24anything not only for excise, here
00:29:26and that is, well, France is groaning, Germany
00:29:30is groaning, there are simply large... okay,
00:30:33good
00:30:39forecast, good forecast, this is not a forecast, this is just a good
00:30:42apprehension, yes, good apprehension, and here we need to
00:30:46calculate - what share, in
00:30:49what product, in what final price
00:30:53this fuel constitutes and how it will affect, in general, this is quite
00:30:57a serious mathematical calculation,