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00:00:00Let the parliament make a decision, that only. an early election will be held on this date,
00:00:03so many days of early election, early
00:00:06election, early election, why is it being pronounced, what
00:00:09is happening, we will try to solve the codes of this tonight, and we will start with
00:00:13this topic clearly, of course, we will have many
00:00:16other topics, first let me greet my broadcasting partner Fikret
00:00:20Bilaya, Fikret abi, hello,
00:00:23I wish you a good broadcast, I send my regards and
00:00:26love to our guests, thank you, He is with us via remote connection.
00:00:30Also with us is New Party Deputy Sezgin Tanrı. Welcome, Mr. Sezgin.
00:00:33Thank you very much. Greetings and love from Diyarbakır.
00:00:37Thank you. Let's send our greetings to Diyarbakır too. Who are we with in the studio?
00:00:41Sir, political scientist Associate Professor Doctor Doğan
00:00:44Çetinkaya is with us. Welcome, Doğan Hoca. Hello, I'm glad to be here. Economist
00:00:48Professor Doctor Murat Birdal is with us. Welcome, Murat Hoca.
00:00:51and I think the CHP We will also discuss political issues with Murat Hoca, but you know. I guess
00:00:55the markets haven't seen such a big earthquake, such a big
00:00:59shock in a long time. The fund market has been devastated,
00:01:03something like 20 billion in funds have exploded, people are afraid
00:01:06if there will be a continuation, etc. What happened, what happened? There are very interesting
00:01:10developments there, we will evaluate them, and
00:01:13of course, lawyer İsmail Emrettelci is with us. Welcome, İsmail Bey.
00:01:17Hello, I'm glad to be here, good broadcast to everyone. Among all these agendas,
00:01:20IBB trials are very important, we continue to follow them, and something very
00:01:24striking happened yesterday. A defendant on the stand
00:01:27cried. Why did a defendant on the stand
00:01:30cry, in response to what question, and what does
00:01:34this incident tell us about the course of the IBB case? We will address
00:02:08Let me take it, just in case something goes wrong there. Now, the Chief Advisor to the President,
00:02:11Mehmet Uçum, said that
00:02:14he foresees the elections to be held on April 16,
00:02:172028. This is actually one month before the elections
00:02:21that would normally be held in May. This date
00:02:24is the date of the referendum for our transition to the Presidential
00:02:28system, he says. It's its anniversary.
00:02:31Mr. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will be a candidate
00:02:34for the last time. That date has a symbolic meaning, and
00:02:38Mr. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will be a candidate for the last time, says Mehmet
00:02:42Uçum. Before that, the words
00:02:45of MHP Chairman Devlet Bahçeli had drawn attention. Mr.
00:02:48President completed two of the three crescents.
00:02:51He won the 2018 and 2023 elections.
00:02:54Now the third of the three crescents
00:02:58remains. The third of the three crescents.
00:03:03Hopefully, he will complete the third one. Well, these words are sending a message, and I will ask my guests
00:03:07to interpret the details of that message. Let's also look at visual
00:03:10number one, friends. Şamil Tayyar
00:03:13wrote a tweet, you can check it, but
00:03:17we highlighted these specific sections in red
00:03:20because we found them striking
00:03:22the main target is to scatter the opposition. in relation to the topic we are currently discussing. He says, a friend from the general
00:03:26headquarters said that the first round of the election would be on April 2, and the second round on April 16.
00:03:30As Mehmet Uçum said earlier, April 16,
00:03:332028. The first round on April 2, the second round on April 16.
00:03:37Şamil Tayyar's friend from the general headquarters said, "Write it down and
00:03:41keep it aside." What does it say here? "Well, at this stage,"
00:03:45he says, "I have a suggestion. I said it before, I'll repeat it.
00:03:48No matter when the election is held, under current circumstances,
00:03:52it's beneficial to decide on an election now." Look,
00:03:55he says it should be decided now. He suggests this.
00:03:59Tayyar suggests it. The election decision of April 18, 1999,
00:04:02was made 9 months in advance. It can be done now too. Parties will continue their preparations accordingly.
00:04:05The concern about snap or early elections will disappear. Political stress will decrease.
00:04:09Polemics will end. Normalization will begin. I think it should be tried,
00:04:12he says. Very interesting. He says this early election decision should be made
00:04:16now, Şamil Tayyar. Of course,
00:04:19there was also a backstage report by Ayşe Sayın
00:04:23from BBC Turkish. The following sentence was striking, dear viewers:
00:04:27In AKP circles, an election scenario that would pave the way
00:04:30for Erdoğan to be a candidate again, and within this scope, the option of making
00:04:34the election decision months in advance is being discussed. Look,
00:04:37in Ayşe Sayın's backstage report from the BBC, it is also being discussed
00:04:41that the election decision might be made much earlier
00:04:44in the coming period in the AKP. These must
00:04:48be pointing to something, these must be pointing to something.
00:04:51I'll turn to New Party Deputy Sezgin Tanrı Kulu first.
00:04:55Mr. Sezgin, what do these indicate in your opinion? Why have
00:04:57they intensified?
00:05:01"First of all, let me state that, of course, there will be an election, either
00:05:05in 2027 or 2028. Now the issue
00:05:08is here, we need to focus on this:
00:05:11can Mr. Erdoğan be a candidate for the third time?
00:05:14What are the conditions for him to be a candidate, and is an election
00:05:18held a week or a month before its normal
00:05:21time an early election as described in the third paragraph
00:05:24of Article 116 of the Constitution, or is it not?
00:05:27These need to be discussed. Now, Article 101 of the Constitution
00:05:31very clearly limited the presidency to two
00:05:34terms of five years each, meaning a person can serve
00:05:38as president for a maximum of two terms
00:05:40of five years each.
00:05:44Beyond that, they cannot. The exception to this is shown
00:05:48in Article 116, third paragraph,
00:05:52of the Constitution. If
00:05:54the parliament decides by majority,
00:05:58meaning 360 votes, that's what I mean by majority,
00:06:02as described by Hersan, to renew the elections,
00:06:05then the president can be a candidate
00:06:08one more time, yes, one more time, it says.
00:06:11That is, if the parliament decides to renew the elections, of course, now Article
00:06:15116 of the Constitution
00:06:17did not write such a special
00:06:21article because it thought that the president
00:06:25or this parliament would not act against the constitution, its purpose,
00:06:28and spirit. It did not write a special article about
00:06:32when an election is early and when it is not,
00:06:35like whether an election held in the last year is an early election
00:06:38or not. But it is clear that the framers of the constitution,
00:06:42that is, what the parliament meant by the phrase
00:06:45"renewal of the elections," meant this:
00:06:48a president served for five years, then
00:06:52became a candidate for a second term, and was re-elected, but
00:06:56the parliamentary majority is not on his side, and the parliament
00:06:59convened and decided to renew the elections
00:07:02in the first year of his term,
00:07:05and the president's term has expired.
00:07:08In this case, the president will ultimately have served
00:07:125 + 1 years of presidency, not 5 + 5.
00:07:16In order to prevent this, that is, in order for him to complete
00:07:20the 10-year period, the framers of the Constitution
00:07:24intended that if such a decision is made at the beginning of the term
00:07:27or at the latest in the middle of the term, then it can
00:07:30be called an early election, and the president
00:07:33can be a candidate. In 2017,
00:07:36when this constitutional amendment was made, I was also
00:07:39a member of that parliament. Yes, discussions were also held
00:07:43in this way, meaning that
00:07:47because it was foreseen that those who would implement the constitution,
00:07:50that is, the parliament, the president, the Supreme Election Council, or
00:07:54the Constitutional Court, would not act against
00:07:57the constitution, no special exception article
00:08:01was added here, such as if elections are renewed
00:08:03in the last year, then a president who has served two terms
00:08:07cannot be a candidate again. A special prohibition article
00:08:10was not added here. This does not mean that Mr. Erdoğan can be a candidate
00:08:14in an election that will be held a week or a month earlier, but
00:08:18they are having this discussion now, so de facto, the term
00:08:22of the presidency that the constitution
00:08:25did not foresee, that is, the term rule, becomes 3 terms.
00:08:29That is, although the constitution does not foresee this,
00:08:32they want to have these discussions now and cut this off.
00:08:36In parliament, that is, the current de facto
00:08:39situation is that they have the opportunity to exceed
00:08:43the number 360. This alliance of the Justice and Development
00:08:46Party, the Nationalist Movement Party, and other political parties
00:08:49or deputies supporting them can reach 360.
00:08:53Therefore, they have an idea that Mr. Erdoğan
00:08:56can be a candidate one more time with a decision
00:09:00taken by the parliament a week, a month, or two months
00:09:04before its time. But this, in the end,
00:09:08means that
00:09:11if you ask any average constitutional expert,
00:09:14we can very easily state that the constitution
00:09:17does not foresee this, does not aim for this.
00:09:21The purpose of these discussions is this: let this discussion be held now,
00:09:24let it end, and let it be cut off, they say. This is the issue. That is,
00:09:28he is a candidate one more time, whatever you do,
00:09:31whatever you say. We have also drawn other constitutional
00:09:35institutions into our political partnership, such as the Supreme Election Council.
00:09:39That is, in the end, the Supreme Election Council will decide
00:09:42whether he can be a candidate or not.
00:09:46They are having this discussion now because they also have a foreseeability
00:09:49that these cannot decide otherwise. But an election
00:09:52is coming our way. Of course, you said you can find
00:09:56360. There is a deficit of 30.
00:09:59Yes, so how will they find it if the AKP and MHP are not enough?
00:10:03I mean, within the arithmetic of this parliament,
00:10:07I mean, with independent deputies,
00:10:10and then other political parties, I'm just stating a possible
00:10:14prediction, they can reach 360,
00:10:17I mean, they won't have much difficulty, or
00:10:21even if they do, they can reach a point of 360,
00:10:25I think. But now, Mr. Sezgin says that,
00:10:28of course, for a year, but look, for a year, let me tell you this,
00:10:31Mr. Sezgin, please allow me to ask my question,
00:10:35and I will answer you again, please convey your comment. The critical point here
00:10:38is this: the mentioned date is one month
00:10:42before the normal election date, meaning they say May 2028,
00:10:46and they say let's hold it in April and make a decision together now,
00:10:50or with a certain majority. Now, in a normal
00:10:54election. A election that is brought forward by only one month
00:10:57clearly carries no other purpose than to enable Erdoğan to be a candidate again.
00:11:01Now, when this happens, for example, will the DEVA
00:11:05Party members support it, will the Future Party members support it,
00:11:09the Future Party actually eliminated itself, then will the DEN Party
00:11:12members support it, will the CHP members support it?
00:11:16That is, for a normal early election, they might
00:11:19convince some individuals from these parties, but can the deputies of these parties
00:11:22support a proposal for an election that is only brought
00:11:26forward by one month from its normal date? Can the
00:11:29government get their support? Well,
00:11:32I'm saying this in terms of the current environment. Of course, a one-year, one-and-a-half-year
00:11:36period is a long time in Turkish politics.
00:11:39As Mr. Demirel said, even 24 hours
00:11:42is a very long time in Turkey. Therefore, they want
00:11:46to reach a number that can guarantee this environment
00:11:49now. That is, they want
00:11:52to make a decision with the current
00:11:55parliamentary structure. That's the reason.
00:11:59They don't want to leave it for a year later, or
00:12:02three months before the elections.
00:12:05They want to guarantee it. I think the reason behind
00:12:09AK Party-affiliated circles voicing this is this.
00:12:13I understand. Let's turn to Fikret abi. I say
00:12:16that they may not find this majority
00:12:20a year later, or they may find this majority now.
00:12:23What is being discussed in Ankara?
00:12:33That is, after Erdoğan's statement
00:12:37was reflected in the public, that is, after a statement
00:12:41saying, "Hopefully, we will overcome the upcoming elections," was reflected,
00:12:43time left until the election, if we ask if they would support
00:12:46writes about it, or someone from the government side,
00:12:49this time a voice came from the palace, from Mehmet Uçum and so on.
00:12:53Let's make it now. Why is this?
00:12:56There must be a reason for this, Fikret abi, what do you attribute
00:12:59it to? Yes, Gökmen, I attribute
00:13:03these discussions and developments to the effort to guarantee
00:13:06President Erdoğan's candidacy one more time.
00:13:09That is, he wants to make an early election decision now,
00:13:13find 360 in the parliament now, and secure
00:13:17Mr. Erdoğan's third, and even fourth, candidacy.
00:13:21Since they have a concern that "what if the parliament changes in the future
00:13:26and we cannot make this decision," they want to make this decision
00:13:29by taking into account the current distribution
00:13:32of deputies. This is based on the fact that currently
00:13:36there is a framework law, a process of "Turkey without terrorism,"
00:13:39that the government is carrying out with the DEM Party. In that process,
00:13:43if some of Öcalan's expectations are met,
00:13:46the DEM Party may also support
00:13:49the AK Party's early election
00:13:52decision. That is, they want to make
00:13:56such a decision now they themselves may not have
00:13:59decided on that yet, but being disturbed. Because currently,
00:14:03the DEM Party has a closeness to the AK Party
00:14:06in the context of the "Turkey without terrorism" process, with Öcalan's involvement.
00:14:10They want to make an early election decision with the support of the DEM Party
00:14:14before this closeness is broken inaccurate.
00:14:17Mr. Erdoğan's third candidacy after the transition to
00:14:21the presidential system, his third presidency.
00:14:30Are they afraid of an accident along the way in the process?
00:14:33Yes, there could be an accident. The DEN Party's board
00:14:36could change. The "Turkey without terrorism" process might
00:14:39not proceed. The DEN Party might withdraw its support,
00:14:42and then an early election decision might not be made by finding 360 votes.
00:14:45And because they have the concern that Mr. Erdoğan might not be a candidate
00:14:49again, they want to make this decision now
00:14:52and secure the candidacy, because the current environment
00:14:55is suitable, the arithmetic is suitable, and the Party's
00:14:59support continues. This issue is being discussed
00:15:03within such an approach. Of course, the statement made
00:15:07by Mr. Mehmet Uçum also gives a direct date: April 16, 2028.
00:15:10This also shows that Tayyar gives the same date.
00:15:13Yes, I mean, this actually shows
00:15:16that the government
00:15:18is afraid of an early election to be held in the next year.
00:15:22It is afraid of losing the early election, because the economy
00:15:26is very bad, prices are rising,
00:15:28unemployment, minimum wage. It cannot fix these. It thinks
00:15:32that if it goes to the election in this economic crisis, it will lose.
00:15:35Therefore, it wants to use almost the entire normal presidential
00:15:39term, hold an early election on April 16, one month
00:15:42before the end of the term, and turn it into a parliamentary
00:15:45decision with the support of the DEM Party. It wants to turn it into a parliamentary
00:15:49decision so that candidacy can be possible again.
00:15:52But it also became clear that it is hesitant to go to an early election
00:15:56during that period, Gökmen, because if it thought it had a high
00:15:59chance of winning the early election, the AK Party could have made
00:16:03an early election decision at an earlier date and secured
00:16:06Mr. Erdoğan's candidacy again. Instead of doing this,
00:16:10it wants to hold an early election on April 16, 2028,
00:16:13one month
00:16:16before the normal date. That is, there is a one-month period compared to the normal period.
00:16:19Of course, as Mr. Tanrıkulu said,
00:16:22whether an election one month earlier counts as an early election is another
00:16:26matter of debate. But we understand that the government
00:16:29side has a high concern of losing an early election
00:16:33that will be held earlier. Therefore, they want to make an early
00:16:36election decision now, before the parliamentary arithmetic changes,
00:16:40before the stance of the DEM Party changes, and secure the candidacy.
00:16:43You can say that very easily. Okay, let's look at the parliamentary
00:16:47arithmetic then. It was in visual number 3, we had prepared it.
00:16:50What does the parliamentary arithmetic say? Sezgin Tanrıkulu said
00:16:54that they could reach 360, because 360
00:16:57is needed, three-fifths is needed. He
00:17:00was right to some extent. How? He is somewhat proving Sezgin Bey
00:17:03right. Is that so? Do you also agree? Somewhat, yes.
00:17:07Justice and Development Party 280,
00:17:11New Party 91, DEM Party 56, MHP
00:17:1546. If you add up AK Party and MHP,
00:17:18it makes 280, 320, 326. If you also
00:17:21add HÜDA PAR, it's around 330. So there are 30 left.
00:17:25Now, where will those 30 come from? Will they
00:17:28come from DEM Party members? Will they come from CHP?
00:17:31Will they come from CHP members? There are 44 CHP members.
00:17:35They won't come from Good Party members, right, Doğan Hoca?
00:17:38Will they come from the New Road Group? I mean, will DEVA Saadet come? Doğan Hoca, you're saying
00:17:42New Welfare. Three of them are outside, of course, not within
00:17:45the 20. But the independent 11
00:17:49people are important. Yes, the independent 11 are important. Yes, and here
00:17:52there is HÜDA PAR, there is New Welfare, there are 3 TIP, there are 2 Democratic,
00:17:562 Labor Party, 1 Felicity Party, 1 DSP, 1 DSP is also important.
00:18:00Now, you are asking if they will reach 360.
00:18:02The possibility is not impossible,
00:18:06and it's not difficult either, I think. Especially, will the DEM Party members,
00:18:09for example, I'm saying this excluding DEM. Okay, let me
00:18:13ask you this, if you allow me. Let's say next month they put this into effect,
00:18:17they gathered the parliament, friends,
00:18:20say the name, 2028, on April 16, they said
00:18:24let's make an early election decision now. They found 360,
00:18:27they exceeded 360. Do you think
00:18:30that in such a short time, within one or two
00:18:34months, if they make this move, will the DEM
00:18:36Party deputies support this? Can the DEM Party explain this to the public?
00:18:40I think, because I will repeat the critical point here, an election only one month
00:18:44before the normal election means only guaranteeing
00:18:47Erdoğan's candidacy. They can explain this to the public.
00:18:50Now, for the DEM Party, let's start from there, for the DEM Party
00:18:54to support this process in this way, it is especially
00:18:57necessary for some important stages
00:19:00to be reached in the process that it desires and expects.
00:19:04That is, it needs to go above a certain level. This framework law
00:19:08was important. They also gave importance to it and called
00:19:11for support for it from the public, especially from the democratic public
00:19:15and intellectuals. But on that issue, they have some
00:19:19problems with mobilization. There are very serious discussions
00:19:22within their own public and within the party about
00:19:26where this process regarding the solution of the Kurdish question
00:19:29will progress, their expectations and Abdullah Öcalan's
00:19:32expectations. As you know, some expectations at various
00:19:36levels have not been met. Because of this,
00:19:39I don't think the DEM Party would support such a decision
00:19:43in the current known conjuncture
00:19:46without a guarantee. When steps are taken
00:19:49in the process as they wish,
00:19:52as was the case with the New Party's
00:19:55support
00:19:57for the framework law, I say that there will be
00:20:01problems. That is, since it is also a democratic party,
00:20:05there will be different voices there. There will definitely
00:20:08be those who support and those who do not. But I don't
00:20:11expect the DEM Party to support such a thing
00:20:15given the current position, because even though the process
00:20:19is currently going in the direction they want,
00:20:22the expected returns, amnesty, etc.,
00:20:26the steps that need to be taken, the government is quite
00:20:29slow on that. The reason for the government's
00:20:32slowness is also related to the election, because the government has two
00:20:36concerns. One of them is...
00:20:50Erdoğan also states this. Now, two things emerged in Erdoğan's
00:20:54discourse. One is the "overcoming" discourse in his Rize
00:20:57speech, which expresses concern about the election.
00:20:59He said, "We will succeed in overcoming it." So, we understand
00:21:03from that that they thought and discussed it. On the other hand,
00:21:07the word "overcoming" indicates a concern, that there is at least
00:21:10a problem. Secondly, he says, "We are also
00:21:13aware that there is an economic problem and we need to take steps
00:21:17to solve it." This means that elections are being discussed, and his inner
00:21:26circle is experiencing economic problems. Now, at this point, it's a bit of a mystery
00:21:30how quickly they will take steps and get support.
00:21:33But when you look at this table, ultimately, today, one of the most
00:21:37important partners of the People's Alliance is the CHP. That's why there are
00:21:4144 deputies there. It's not clear how many of these 44
00:21:44deputies, through coercion or bargaining
00:21:48or various means that are now considered outdated.
00:21:51The number of the 44 deputies who directly positioned themselves
00:21:55next to Kılıçdaroğlu is not less, right? I mean, yes,
00:21:58but still it's a small proportion. Since there are 30 deputies,
00:22:02you don't have to get all 44 of them there. Secondly,
00:22:06it's not clear if these 11 independent
00:22:08people will be candidates in the next elections. They are very important.
00:22:12In such a parliament, in the next election, people who think they will not be nominated
00:22:15will act a bit more according to their personal and material
00:22:19interests. I'm not implying that the 11 independent
00:22:22deputies there are under suspicion, but as a matter of political
00:22:26debate, they have such characteristics
00:22:29that we are accustomed to. There is DSP there.
00:22:33DSP was also a part of the People's Alliance in the elections.
00:22:37So, when you look at this table, it might not be very difficult
00:22:40to find 30 votes on top of AKP, MHP,
00:22:43and HÜDA PAR, excluding the DEM Party.
00:22:47But if they get the DEM Party, they can do it very easily.
00:22:50Then the constitutional debate might also come to the agenda,
00:22:53and they can do whatever they want with the constitution. But I don't
00:22:57think the DEM Party would get involved in this
00:23:01much in this position. Let me say a couple more things, of course, but keep it in mind,
00:23:04I'll come back for another round. This is enough for now. No, say it, but keep
00:23:08it in mind, because we will discuss this extensively. This issue has more than
00:23:12one dimension. Please. Okay, okay, then
00:23:16I also agree with this early election issue.
00:23:18Of course, there is also a certain hesitation
00:23:22among the citizens and their base regarding the initiatives taken by the AKP,
00:23:25the operations carried out by the government, especially in certain
00:23:29segments. Now, this is a very serious ethical problem,
00:23:32because there is no clear regulation in the constitution,
00:23:35but as the law maker
00:23:38said, even if the early election is held one or two months earlier,
00:23:42or even a couple of weeks earlier, a chief advisor to the president
00:23:46said that an early election is an early election, which is probably how they will interpret it,
00:23:50because right now, the situation that manifests
00:23:54is whatever they want to interpret. That's why
00:23:58I agree with Tanrıkulu on that.
00:24:01Because of this, this election debate
00:24:05has now come to the fore, so Uçum's statement
00:24:08or Tayyar's statements are important
00:24:11because this shows that we have entered the election period,
00:24:15and those circles that were previously in the background
00:24:18they are concerned about.
00:24:32Selvi draws attention to the economic dimension and 5 in
00:24:36the visual. Let's
00:24:38convey
00:24:40it. So, it won't be like this, says Selvi, trying to convey this.
00:24:44Okay, so the election should be brought forward, etc., late 2027
00:24:48or early 2028, but? "Yes, Turkey's course is now an election,"
00:24:52he says. I'm surprised he didn't write about İmamoğlu, very interesting, he didn't write today,
00:24:56I was surprised, I was very shocked. Pensioners, who form the AK Party's
00:24:59voter base, minimum wage earners, and tradesmen
00:25:02are in trouble. Look, it's important that Selvi is aware of this.
00:25:06He knows it's in trouble. Pensioners
00:25:09represent a mass of 17 million people. It's clear how pensioners gave a lesson in the local elections.
00:25:13Demirel, after 50 years of political experience, said that there is no government that the pot cannot overthrow.
00:25:17For this reason, the AK Party has no choice but to fix the economy. President Erdoğan
00:25:21said at the AK Party's Central Decision and Executive Board meeting that there are economic
00:25:24problems and we are aware of them. We are working to solve them. We have
00:25:28instruments to solve these problems. We will fix the economy. So, Erdoğan
00:25:31must have said at that meeting, we have
00:25:34instruments to solve this problem. Mr. Murat, do they
00:25:38have instruments to solve this problem?
00:25:41On the one hand, this economic picture is not just
00:25:44about the economy. You know, it's constantly talked about
00:25:48the dimension stemming from the legal situation in Turkey
00:25:52and preventing capital inflows. Uh, yes.
00:25:55whether it's the beginning of 2028
00:25:59or the end of 2020, whichever it is,
00:26:03as he said, can they go to an election in a way that can win the hearts
00:26:07of those 17 million pensioners? No, they can't.
00:26:10I always repeat the same thing, so I was closing the door
00:26:13to the possibility of an early election. So,
00:26:17the relationship between economy
00:26:19and democracy needs to be described like this:
00:26:23since the situation on that front, the democracy front,
00:26:27is not good, we see a deterioration on the economy side.
00:26:30But as the economy side deteriorates, we
00:26:34see a more authoritarian regime there, and it will be like this.
00:26:38If they can't get it from this side, they limit your room for maneuver
00:26:41from the other side. Their seizing municipalities, their
00:26:44making it impossible for municipalities to produce policies
00:26:47was because of this. I have been emphasizing the same thing
00:26:51since the local elections,
00:26:54made the right moves back then. It entered
00:26:58areas where it could directly contact the public, and seeing that it gained points
00:27:01there, it increased its effectiveness and directly tackled
00:27:05the implementations in this social policy area. So,
00:27:08it drifted into a path that prevents its rival from producing policies.
00:27:12Now, the upcoming process presents such a picture. So, that's why
00:27:15I don't really believe
00:27:19that democratic steps like the resolution process
00:27:23and such, which would complete this, can be taken in the area of democracy.
00:27:26Unfortunately, I might be painting a somewhat pessimistic picture for you,
00:27:30but we are in a global economy. I've put aside the failure
00:27:33of the national economy, the deviation of the inflation fighting program
00:27:37from its targets, etc. There's a serious failure internally,
00:27:41and I absolutely think it's wrong
00:27:44to blame a single person for this. It's not Mehmet Şimşek;
00:27:48Erdoğan is at the helm, because we're talking about
00:27:51a process where politics and economy go hand in hand.
00:27:55The main reason why capital doesn't enter,
00:27:58why permanent capital inflows don't occur,
00:28:01is political instability. And you will appreciate that this is not represented
00:28:05by one person. If there is one person at the top, it's not Mehmet Şimşek, it's Erdoğan
00:28:09himself. Now, look, there's a situation where
00:28:12the target has been largely missed, and
00:28:16for a return to an election economy, inflation needs to be brought under control
00:28:19to some extent. It seems there's stubborn inflation
00:28:22at 30%, and not much progress is being made there.
00:28:26And it seems not only 2026 but also 2027 won't be easy in that area.
00:28:30When we look at the global economy,
00:28:34look, yesterday the Fed raised interest rates. It seems highly
00:28:36likely that there will be another interest rate hike by the end of the year.
00:28:40And the possibility of interest rate hikes
00:28:44continuing next year is quite high.
00:28:47We are facing a global inflation wave. We will probably
00:28:50talk about those in later sections, but
00:28:53here, the price of this engine... Yes,
00:28:57but these are all connected. The man attacked Russia,
00:29:00hit and destroyed five refineries, and Russia is the most important
00:29:03diesel producer in the world. Especially, Russia is the main producer
00:29:07of the diesel we import.
00:29:10This affected us most of all. So, while diesel prices
00:29:14increased globally, they increased even more in our country.
00:29:17But on the other hand, there's also the Trump factor. We're talking about an incredibly
00:29:20strange leader, incredibly inconsistent. Two days ago, the man lashed out at Ukraine,
00:29:24saying, "What are you doing? You've turned global markets upside down!
00:29:27Stop hitting the refineries!" He himself had hit refineries in Iran
00:29:31before. So now, all refineries, of course,
00:29:34don't produce diesel at the same rate, but Russia was very critical here.
00:29:38Those five refineries played an important role. But both in Iran, the ones hit in Tehran,
00:29:41and the refineries that Iran hit
00:29:45on the other side, all of these together,
00:29:48we see the results of the war triggered by Trump.
00:29:52And the reason for its rise more than in Europe
00:29:55is that these are transported by ships. There's also this ironic
00:29:58side to it: these ships also burn diesel. That's why diesel
00:30:01is important. Now, for Europe, what is it?
00:30:0315-20% or so. It's lower in America, but agriculture uses diesel,
00:30:06motor fuel. Industry uses motor fuel.
00:30:10Transportation uses motor fuel. That motor fuel is brought
00:30:14by ships that use motor fuel. So transportation costs
00:30:17also become more expensive. Now, in terms of global production
00:30:20conditions, in terms of supply chains, a very serious problem
00:30:24is being experienced. It's not possible to solve this in the short term,
00:30:27because you can't immediately substitute this production capacity,
00:30:31open new refineries, or immediately replace
00:30:35the lost capacity in existing ones. What I see... still,
00:30:38they say one year. Because of this, some of these price increases
00:30:42seem permanent. In an environment where
00:30:45inflation is not falling, where this upward movement in inflation
00:30:48is permanent, central banks try to get ahead of it by raising interest rates.
00:30:52Now, can you imagine what would happen
00:30:56to a Turkey that lowers interest rates in a period when the world
00:30:59is raising interest rates? I will say you can. Because we also
00:31:02tried this and saw how the Turkish economy was dragged
00:31:06into a dead end. I don't think they'd want to repeat
00:31:09this. This time, the cost will be very heavy,
00:31:12because unlike before, they took low inflation
00:31:16and brought it to a very high level. Today, they already
00:31:20have high inflation that they can't bring down. If they push this even higher,
00:31:22it would be a very bad election scenario. They had some room for maneuver
00:31:26there. They had managed to carry out the election by increasing
00:31:29the minimum wage and so on, by artificially increasing
00:31:32wages for a while. Because it must be said,
00:31:36some friends also discussed at that time,
00:31:39"Oh, the pot was bringing down the government,"
00:31:43but it didn't, my friend. What the pot did was this: the man
00:31:46had a real gain in wages at that time, there was no loss
00:31:50there. We said that inflation would cause this loss
00:31:53in a very short time, and then we saw it in the next 6 months.
00:31:57After that, another 6 months,
00:32:00meaning that the inflation gain that citizens
00:32:03would be exposed to after winning the election
00:32:07would erode it, we said. You said
00:32:10it, and that's what happened. So now, in 6 months,
00:32:14can they make such reliefs again, Mr. Murat?
00:32:16Now, this is the goal. As they enter the election,
00:32:20we will probably see the steps of this from the second half of 2027 onwards.
00:32:24The credit market will start to expand. Now, with these operations,
00:32:27they are also doing some cleanup, clearing the way. Now, foreign
00:32:31capital wouldn't enter the stock market in this state.
00:32:33Now they will clean up those places a bit, they will make room.
00:32:37However, in such a situation, this expansionary
00:32:39policy will have very serious inflationary
00:32:43consequences. Currently,
00:32:46entering such an election process with very high inflation
00:32:49also has high costs and is unsustainable. What was the problem
00:32:53last time? Reserves. So, you also need to keep the exchange rate stable.
00:32:56You can't let the exchange rate go, because when you do,
00:32:59it directly affects citizens' pockets. So, you also need to keep the exchange rate stable.
00:33:03That's why reserves need to be strengthened. Currently, Turkey is not ready
00:33:07for such an election process. The picture is very negative
00:33:09in international markets. It's not possible to say that it will be better
00:33:12in the second half of 2027, etc., but at least
00:33:16they will want to gain time until then. If not, option B
00:33:19is to eliminate the opposition. By "eliminate," I don't mean an election without an opposition party,
00:33:23of course, but a situation where they can choose the candidate they want.
00:33:26So, when you look at the picture
00:33:29we just talked about here, yes, not all of CHP,
00:33:32there are people we know very well there, some of whom are staying there
00:33:36because Kılıçdaroğlu won't be permanent and it's good for their own political careers.
00:33:39They can pave the way for them, but some of them will no longer
00:33:43have a political career. In significant numbers here,
00:33:47now, a person who says yes to such an offer from the AKP
00:33:50will no longer have a chance in left-wing politics.
00:33:54They can probably gather some from there. They might find such support from the "new way" group
00:33:58as well; they shook that quite a bit, they reduced those they could reduce.
00:34:01But something could happen from there as well. I think the first option
00:34:04is to secure it from there. You think they can find 360, right, hocam?
00:34:08I thought they could find it from there, but what Fikret Bey said is very
00:34:11true. Well, why would you try to determine
00:34:15a future date from today?
00:34:19It might be a weak argument, but a very
00:34:22Kılıçdaroğlu'nun kalıcı olmayacağı ve kendi siyasi kariyerleri
00:34:26açısından iyi olduğu için orada duruyorlar yani önlerini açabileceği
00:34:29için ama bir kısmının da artık siyasi kariyeri olmayacak
00:34:33buradaki önemli sayıda, şimdi AKP'nin
00:34:36zaten böyle bir teklifine evet diyen bir kişinin
00:34:40artık solda siyaset şansı olmayacaktır, oradan
00:34:44bir kısmını devşireb. "Yeni yol grubundan da belki böyle bir destek
00:34:48bulabilir, orayı bayağı bir salladılar, düşürebildiklerini düşürdüler
00:34:51ama, oradan da bir şey olabilir, bence de birinci seçenek
00:34:54oradan onu sağlamak, 36'ı siz de bulabileceklerini düşünüyorsunuz değil mi hocam,
00:34:58weak argument.
00:35:02"To alleviate the unrest in the markets." For God's sake,
00:35:05when you look at the unrest in the markets, only a small part of it
00:35:09is due to the expectation of an early election. Markets are not fluctuating because
00:35:12of the expectation of an early election. The reason foreign capital is not coming in
00:35:16is not the expectation of an early election or anything like that. The main issue
00:35:19is this: it means they think this support
00:35:23will not be permanent, and they are trying to guarantee it.
00:35:27What kind of support might not be permanent here?
00:35:30The DEM side. As we always say,
00:35:34this "resolution process"
00:35:37an external concern side and an internal concern
00:35:40side. There was no question of patriotism or the nation in any of this.
00:35:44This was entirely part of the government's
00:35:47search for a way to stay in power, and therefore,
00:35:51we knew they wanted this support in exchange for
00:35:53certain promises and pledges. Perhaps they will try to tie this up,
00:35:56but I agree with Doğa on this too; this is not
00:35:59a party like CHP. The party I'm talking about
00:36:03is a party that is ideologically consistent within itself.
00:36:05Without seeing some concrete promises being fulfilled and steps being taken,
00:36:09they won't give that support.
00:36:12Okay, İsmail Emretelci, is the government trying to put
00:36:16the early election in its pocket? Are they saying, "Let's make a decision on this
00:36:19from the parliament, and it's not even that early, it's just a month before the election.
00:36:23Let's put that in our pocket, and then let's look ahead"?
00:36:26What's your comment? Well, they're doing something like this:
00:36:29the constitution is clear. Mr. Tanrı Kulu said this.
00:36:33Let me do this for him: there is a concept called "ratio legis,"
00:36:36fitness for purpose. What is the purpose of this constitutional rule?
00:36:40Now, let's say Erdoğan is in power.
00:36:43Despite Erdoğan, the parliament,
00:36:47without Erdoğan's support – because his term
00:36:50of office is still continuing, he was elected –
00:36:53the parliament said, "I want to have an early election."
00:36:57And it reaches a majority of 360 in some way.
00:37:01But Erdoğan is in power. Erdoğan doesn't support this.
00:37:04They want to go to an election. Now, the constitution says
00:37:07that if a 3/5 majority
00:37:10in parliament makes such a decision,
00:37:13an early election will be held under those conditions.
00:37:17This is what we mean by "fitness for purpose" for this rule. This is the purpose
00:37:21of this rule. So, an early election
00:37:24or a brought-forward election happens despite you being in power.
00:37:27This is the rule. Now,
00:37:31can we say that Erdoğan will not support such a decision
00:37:34that the parliament will make?
00:37:37Such a thing is not possible. This would be a decision
00:37:41entirely dependent on Erdoğan and made according to Erdoğan's directives.
00:37:45Now, don't look at these people with advisor titles,
00:37:49or some ally of the alliance, or the small partner of the government.
00:37:51You know, they have all sorts of partners. Don't mind them expressing these things, and don't mind Erdoğan not speaking out.
00:37:55After all, that party has a general chairman. The AKP has 280 deputies,
00:37:58and there's no chance of an early election decision
00:38:02that Erdoğan doesn't want. Therefore,
00:38:05if such a decision is made, it will be a decision entirely
00:38:09against the constitution. But what I'm saying is valid
00:38:12in regimes with normal constitutional jurisdiction or in regimes
00:38:15where the High Election Council is truly independent.
00:38:19We know there's no such regime without one. So, can Erdoğan
00:38:22make this decision? He can, and then he can say,
00:38:25"This decision was made despite me."
00:38:27He can say that too, he can convince his base of it.
00:38:31But everything,
00:38:35as stated before, has this situation. What did Ton Barak say?
00:38:39He needs legitimacy, he says, because he knows
00:38:42he cannot do such a thing without legitimacy. Therefore,
00:38:46Erdoğan also does not want this to be the case. Today,
00:38:48you know, when Erdoğan went to New York for the United Nations
00:38:52General Assembly, he announced today that he would meet with Trump.
00:38:55Yes. Yes. He needs legitimacy.
00:38:58So, how will he provide this legitimacy now?
00:39:01Now, in the "Turkey Free of Terror" vote, such a picture emerged.
00:39:05It passed with a very large vote. Now they saw that,
00:39:07actually, the purpose of the votes
00:39:09was not support for the AKP.
00:39:13It was a vote given
00:39:14for the guns to fall silent, for the bloodshed to stop,
00:39:17for a path to be entered, for the wheel of history to turn forward.
00:39:20But the Justice and Development Party government
00:39:24always tries to deceive itself, and says, "I can find the legitimacy
00:39:27I'm looking for right here, right now."
00:41:17that doesn't even stop there, or they make this decision
00:41:20and this time they try to eliminate the opposition,
00:41:24meaning, the pressures and moves
00:41:27they have made against the opposition so far, perhaps a more intensified
00:41:31version of these could follow. We will discuss this section separately,
00:41:35because in Nuray Babacan's backstage news,
00:41:38both in terms of candidacy, to confuse people in terms of candidacy, and by putting more pressure on the new party,
00:41:42by making more moves, we will talk about what awaits us in that section.
00:41:46But let me see what our viewers are saying, and then let's listen to Sezgin Bey.
00:41:49Look, he says, "The Erdoğan we know
00:41:53doesn't enter an election he will lose.
00:41:56meşru olmayacağının farkındalar dolayısıyla meşru
00:42:00olmayan bir yapı ekonomide ne de
00:42:04diğer alanlarda hükmünü böyle istediği
00:42:07gibi eee doğrultamaz halka.
00:42:10uygulayamaz, bunun bilincinde olduklarını düşünüyorum, peki şimdi
00:42:12aslında Murat Birdal hocam az
00:42:16önce yorumunda hani belki de bununla
00:42:19da yetinmeyip ya da bu kararı alıp bu kez de
00:42:22muhalefeti eee yok etmek yani muhalefeti yok etmek anlamında
00:42:26muhalefete yönelik şu ana kadar yapmış oldukları bir takım
00:42:29baskılar, hamleler belki bunların daha da katmerlisine gidecek bir
00:42:33süreç olabilir, bu bu bölümü ayrıca konuşacağız,
00:42:36çünkü eee Nuray Babacan'ın bir kulis haberinde.
00:42:44hem adaylık anlamında adaylık anlamında insanların kafasını karıştırmak hem de
00:42:47yeni partiye daha eee yüklenerek daha da fazla hamleler yaparak o
00:42:51bölümde konuşuruz bizi neler bekleyebilir eee ama
00:42:54izleyicilerimiz
00:42:56ne diyor ona da bakayım ondan sonra Sezgin beyi dinleyelim bakın diyor
00:42:59ki eee bizim bildiğimiz Erdoğan
00:43:03There's another calculation here."
00:43:06Yes, this is something that is said very often, but after all, he enters an election.
00:43:14onu bir şekilde şu an kaybediyor gibi görünse de anketlerde acaba
00:43:17kazanabileceği
00:43:20bir şekle başka türlü dönüştürebilir mi? bunun arayışlarının olduğu
00:43:23söyleniyor. Osman Ahunbay diyor ki, sanki çocuk
00:43:26kandırıyorlar diyor. Bu şeyle ilgili enstrümanlarımız var,
00:43:30Erdoğan demiş ya ekonomi düzeltecek enstrümanlarımız var
00:43:33diye, yani Selvi bunu duyuruyor AKP MyK'sında. O da
00:43:37diyor ki, sanki çocuk kandırıyorlar, madem enstit.
00:43:42Even if he seems to be losing now in the polls, can he
00:43:46transform it into a shape where he can win in another way?
00:43:49It is said that he is looking for this. Osman Ahunbay
00:43:53says, "It's like they're fooling children." This is about
00:43:56"we have instruments." Erdoğan said, "We have instruments
00:43:59to fix the economy." So Selvi is announcing this
00:44:02in the AKP MYK. He says, "It's like they're fooling children.
00:44:06If you had instruments, why is the economy in this state?"
00:44:10In other words, "You have instruments, but there's no artist to play them?" he says.
00:44:14Uh, he says, "This is not happening."
00:44:17He said it very well. Then Hatice Karahasan said
00:44:20that she thinks the reason they are trying to determine
00:44:23the election date so early is this:
00:44:26due to pressures and bad governance,
00:44:30that is, to suppress the public's anger by giving an election date.
00:44:33She thinks that's the reason. Then Tayfun Baran says, "Mr. Tanrıkulu
00:44:37talks about the YSK, but, you know,
00:44:41elected officials are arrested without trial,
00:44:44what will the YSK do, etc.?" In this environment,
00:44:48Yelda Öztürk also said, "Honestly, they are the ones who buttoned it wrong,
00:44:51we are the ones paying the bill. We demand our right to urgent, tiered retirement."
00:44:55Faruk Avşar also said, "We are in a transfer period that never closes. The government will find 360."
00:44:59Transfers never end. "The quality of politicians but let it not have
00:45:02the ambition to change the government, that is, not be in that position.
00:45:06Now, what happened to the CHP, what happened to us...
00:45:09Look, after March 31, 2024,
00:45:12first they designed the judiciary.
00:45:15They built a judiciary in places where they would conduct operations.
00:45:19They created a judicial system that would conduct their own operations.
00:45:23Uh, they adjusted the security bureaucracy accordingly, and they adjusted
00:45:26the administrative bureaucracy accordingly. And on
00:45:29October 30, 2024, they pressed the button.
00:45:32They accused the CHP of collaborating with terrorism.
00:45:36When they didn't get a result from that, they started the operation in Istanbul
00:45:43on March 19. Look, if they had gotten a result
00:45:46from the operations on March 19, 2025, if the CHP, Özgür
00:45:49Özel's administration, had stayed at the CHP general headquarters, had stayed in Ankara,
00:45:53and had lost its claim to be the first party,
00:45:56there would have been no need for that operation on May 21, 2026,
00:46:00that unlawful operation called "absolute plunder." But they didn't get a result.
00:46:02Within a 14-month period, this time they came and seized the CHP
00:46:06unlawfully. So, one
00:46:10he won by one and a half votes in the second round, so it was a risky election for him.
00:46:13In the 2024 local elections, the Justice and Development Party, the absolute loser,
00:46:17lost at the ballot box even in this autocratic environment.
00:46:21After that, after March 2024, they are trying to transform the regime into this:
00:46:24all their actions are for a guaranteed autocracy,
00:46:27meaning, let there be elections, but let the result not change. Let there be opposition,
00:46:30değişmesin muhalefet olsun ama iktidarı değiştirme
00:46:34iddiası olmasın yani o pozisyonda olmasın
00:46:38şimdi yani Php'nin başına gelenler bizim başımıza gelenler
00:46:42bu bakın 2024 31 Martından sonra
00:46:45ilk önce yargıyı dizayn ettiler operasyon
00:46:49yapacakları yerlerde bir yargı inşa ettiler kendi.
00:46:52operasyonlarını yapacak bir yargı düzeni oluşturdular,
00:46:56eee güvenlik bürokrasisini buna göre ayarladılar ve idari
00:47:00bürokrasi de buna göre ayarladılar ve 31
00:47:03eee 30 ekim 2024'te düğmeye bastılar,
00:47:07işte CHP'yi terörle işbirliği yapmakla
00:47:09suçladılar, ondan bir sonuç almayınca da 19 Mart'ta
00:47:13İstanbul'daki operasyona başladılar. Bakın 19
00:47:16Mart 2025'teki operasyonlardan sonuç
00:47:19alsaydı, CHP Özgür.
00:47:22özel yönetimi CHP genel merkezinde
00:47:25kalsaydı, Ankara'da kalsaydı, birinci
00:47:28parti olma iddiasını kaybetseydi, 21 Mayıs
00:47:322026'daki
00:47:34o operasyona, mutlak Bultan denen hukuk dışı operasyona gerek
00:47:37kalmazdı. Ama bir sonuç alamadılar, 14 aylık süre
00:47:41içerisinde bu kez geldiler, CHP'ye el koydular, hukuk dışı
00:47:45by court order,
00:47:48even if a judge, a panel has ruled. "It is not
00:47:52a legal decision, I mean, it may be formally a court
00:47:55but it is not a legal decision, it is null and void in my
00:47:58opinion, and they seized the CHP leadership
00:48:02with that decision. Now,
00:48:06on July 24, a new party was founded, this party
00:48:09years, see this, they
00:48:12are trying to take its importance now, whether it is the opposition,
00:48:16yes, they are looking for political legitimacy, as
00:48:19İsmail said a little while ago, "command,"
00:48:23it must be legitimate, but that political legitimacy
00:48:26should not be strong enough to change
00:48:29Erdoğan and this government, this is what they want to do,
00:48:32they are spreading this fear, what fear are they spreading,
00:48:35they are trying to spread this idea, today, even the bath attendant says this,
00:48:39the shopkeeper says this, they won't leave, they won't
00:48:42give up, or an AK Party voter
00:48:46who has broken away from them is trying to say this, that
00:48:49no one but Erdoğan can govern this country. With
00:48:53so many troubles inside and outside,
00:48:57they are trying to create a two-sided fear, a weariness,
00:49:01and we are dealing with these, we are trying
00:49:05to do this, we are telling
00:49:07both AK Party voters and voters who have broken away
00:49:10from the AK Party that Turkey cannot be governed worse than this,
00:49:14it cannot be worse, how can it be worse, you have
00:49:18been in power for 25 years, with 100 liras,
00:49:21100 liras, not even one
00:49:26fuel. Oh, here, sorry, you were just showing it, show it again. Yes,
00:49:30not even one liter of fuel comes. In
00:49:322009, the Justice and Development Party was in power,
00:49:36they put this money into circulation,
00:49:39when they put it into circulation, 40 liters of fuel came with it,
00:49:42now you can't even get 1 liter. So they were there then,
00:49:46now the citizens, I mean, young people, new
00:49:50voters, etc., don't know about this, people forget,
00:49:53as if when this money came into effect in 2009, there was
00:49:57another government in Turkey, or there are so
00:50:00many operations every day, every day in some
00:50:03place, I mean, against gangs, etc.,
00:50:06I mean, okay, but I mean, these, I mean,
00:50:10the government didn't change a year or two ago, this government
00:50:13was in power, I mean, in the end, what
00:50:17happened in the stock market,
00:50:20I mean, these have been happening for a year or two. You shared
00:50:24a queue on social media today from Diyarbakır, what was that? Well,
00:50:27look, believe me, my heart aches, really,
00:50:31I mean, in the end, in the whole world, it is thought that when
00:50:34a retiree retires after a service, they should
00:50:37live in peace, they should eat their fill
00:50:41with dignity and peace, I mean, they should not have
00:50:44any worries about the future, etc., I mean, they should
00:50:48live in security, they should live in good health conditions.
00:50:51After working for 25, 30, 40 years, now in Diyarbakır,
00:50:55look, there are queues
00:50:58every day in front of the Meat and Fish Institution's sales office,
00:51:02every day, people get up at
00:51:045 in the morning for the ticket queue, sorry,
00:51:08Mr. Sezgin, my
00:51:12director couldn't reach me, but I have to go to commercial,
00:51:15I didn't hear it.
00:51:18My heart really ached, I will tell you about this later,
00:51:20okay.
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01:00:26Açıkça continues, dear viewers, in this segment, lawyer
01:00:30Figen Çalıkuşu is also with us via remote connection. Welcome,
01:00:33Ms. Figen. Hello, good evening, Mr. Gökmen,
01:00:36I greet you, our viewers, and our guests. Hello.
01:00:39Thank you. Now, we talked
01:00:42before the break. Why did Mehmet Uçum say that Erdoğan
01:00:45will be the President for the last time? It is suitable
01:00:49for April 16, 2028,
01:00:53that is, one month before the normal election date, April 16 is important
01:00:57and symbolic, it is the anniversary of the acceptance of the referendum
01:01:01for this new presidential government system. Why did
01:01:03he say these things, and other names accompanied
01:01:07him while he was saying them? Abdülkadir Selvi also
01:01:10said it could be the end of 2027 or the beginning of 2028. Şamil
01:01:13Tayyar said he heard from AKP members
01:01:16that April 16, 2028 is seen as the first
01:01:20round, and April 2 as the second round for the presidential
01:01:23election on April 16, and
01:01:26this decision should be made now, that is, it would be good if the decision
01:01:30that there will be early elections in April 2028
01:01:33is made now. This discourse has emerged
01:01:37as a new discourse. We are discussing what is behind
01:01:40this. Mr. Sezgin Tanrı was talking, of course, there is
01:01:43also an economic dimension to it, because without the economy improving,
01:01:47retirees, workers, these people, without
01:01:51taking a slight breath, the government does not have
01:01:54the chance to go to elections easily. He shared a queue
01:01:58in Diyarbakır today, he was explaining it,
01:02:02we went to commercial. What kind of queue was it, Mr. Sezgin, can
01:02:06you briefly explain it? Very briefly, the Meat and Fish
01:02:09Institution sells meat cheaper
01:02:12in its organized sales stores than the market,
01:02:16than markets and butchers. Ground meat is 400 lira,
01:02:20diced meat is 440 lira, this
01:02:23is the price, retirees,
01:02:26most of them elderly people, those I spoke to.
01:02:31To buy 1 kilo of ground meat and 1 kilo of diced meat,
01:02:34they queue up at 5 in the morning,
01:02:37they wait, they get a ticket at 8:30,
01:02:40and at 9:30, they queue up again, and
01:02:43if there is still meat
01:02:46left, they try to get meat.
01:02:50So, for a discount of 300-400 liras,
01:02:53retired people, elderly people
01:02:56in the morning, and a few people said, we come here after
01:03:00morning prayer and queue up. They expressed these concerns,
01:03:04look, Mr. Sezgin, you will say this, tomorrow or the next
01:03:07day they won't sell us this meat either, they eliminated this queue so it wouldn't
01:03:10be seen, we won't be able to buy this meat. They also expressed
01:03:14such a concern. Well, look, we are talking about
01:03:17a system of poverty where people queue for hours
01:03:20to buy 1 kilo of ground meat for 200-300 liras
01:03:24cheaper. There is such a system,
01:03:27and the average pension is 23,000
01:03:30liras, 27-28,000 liras,
01:03:34and there are 17 million people,
01:03:37I mean, retirees, do they not see these? What
01:03:41did Mehmet Şimşek say just yesterday? He said, when the time
01:03:44comes, we will make an inflation adjustment. Which inflation?
01:03:48TÜİK's inflation, ENAK's inflation, or the real market's
01:03:51inflation? Which one will you use? If they make an inflation adjustment
01:03:55according to TÜİK, it will be 30%, 23,000 liras will be
01:03:5930,000 liras, what will that be enough for?
01:04:02Therefore, they cannot fix this situation. So,
01:04:06as I tried to express, Figen
01:04:09put it conceptually and
01:04:12said to secure it. In the end,
01:04:16they are trying to create the conditions for Mr. Erdoğan
01:04:19to be a candidate one more time and to be re-elected
01:04:22in this oppressive environment by opening this discussion now
01:04:26and trying to get such a decision made with 360 votes
01:04:30in the parliament. This is what they are trying
01:04:33to do. Look, as our teacher said
01:04:36earlier, what happened in the stock market,
01:04:39I mean, even those who follow the stock market
01:04:43from afar knew that it would burst
01:04:45somewhere, that small savers
01:04:49would lose money, that
01:04:52big companies' funding source was not banks,
01:04:56but the stock market, that there was a squeeze somewhere
01:05:00and it would burst. Now, if those who follow the stock market
01:05:04from afar see this, how do those
01:05:06who created it not see it? And
01:05:10those who suffered damage are small savers,
01:05:13I mean, those who invested 300,000 or 500,000 liras
01:05:16of their savings there and tried to contribute to their
01:05:20budget, I mean, people
01:05:23whose economy is more balanced, these people
01:05:27suffered damage again, they suffered damage again.
01:05:30Thousands, tens of thousands, maybe hundreds of thousands of people
01:05:34who joined and trusted the stock market in this way suffered damage
01:05:37from this situation, it is not clear how much more damage
01:05:40they will suffer. Well, I will turn to Ms. Figen,
01:05:43but Professor Murat, will the losses of those
01:05:46small investors be covered, how will it work?
01:05:49There is a Nasreddin Hoca anecdote, right?
01:05:53I mean, if you don't believe
01:05:55it was born, why don't you believe it died? I was looking at a stock
01:05:59certificate just now. It gained 20,000% in 3
01:06:0220,000%. Look,
01:06:06now, to such an investment tool,
01:06:10it came out like this, as Mr. Sezgin said,
01:06:13there are some funds, and everyone knew
01:06:16that the stocks that these funds invested in performed
01:06:20very well, and everyone was trying to follow them.
01:06:23So, there is a process going on where there are groups on Telegram,
01:06:27etc., they join these groups, and certain
01:06:31people say they get tips from these funds,
01:06:34from fund managers, and tell them to jump in. If it works
01:06:37once or twice, you have to carry the stock,
01:06:41you will enter the stock, but then you will have
01:06:44to make others carry it so you can exit. That's how the mechanism
01:06:48works, first they enter, they drive it, then
01:06:52other people jump in, etc. I won't name
01:06:55names now, but the names are already out there, they jump in
01:06:59because these people entered. So, there was such a process
01:07:02in the stock market, especially recently,
01:07:06very intense movements, and these funds
01:07:10that carried them were known to everyone.
01:07:13If you ask why we were dragged into such a process, I think
01:07:16that's the most important thing, citizens couldn't
01:07:19protect their small savings against high inflation.
01:07:23I talked to a lot of people today, most of them retirees,
01:07:26there are students, a group of people with small amounts of money.
01:07:42With its winnings, a search began, and of course,
01:07:46they turned to these stock-heavy funds
01:07:49in the face of incredible returns. Normally,
01:07:52while the returns of the IMKB 100 index
01:07:56funds remained very low, when these incredible
01:08:00returns, as I just mentioned, emerged, it
01:08:03also appeared as an attractive element to citizens.
01:08:06Now, the reason I started with the phrase "will they
01:08:10get their losses back" is that just as it went up,
01:08:14it can also fall. The value of these funds is tied
01:08:18to these stocks, so now these funds are being liquidated,
01:08:21so there will be gradual selling. Many of
01:08:24their boards are currently opening
01:08:28at the floor, there is no buying side right
01:08:32now, I mean, there are no buyers, only sellers.
01:08:35At what values they sell, they will write
01:08:38that down, a pool will be created from that average, and
01:08:42then the collected money will be paid. For those who
01:08:46placed a sell order before 1.5 yesterday, it seems
01:08:49that a debt will be written for them, an advance payment
01:08:52will be made to them, and then it will be divided among the others,
01:08:56it seems. Yes, but how it will be done, we will see,
01:08:59but who will pay for the fund's money? The fund's money is
01:09:03in the fund, let's not say it's coming from the state,
01:09:06but for example, this participation house, yes,
01:09:10I mean, these savings finance
01:09:19companies are negotiating to acquire it. What will happen to those who suffered losses there? Those who suffered losses there,
01:09:23well, it seems the state will cover it. So,
01:09:26their situation is actually savings finance,
01:09:30so their purpose is savings, since it's savings,
01:09:34it's most normal for
01:09:37their money to be paid, I mean, it's most normal
01:09:41for the public to cover it, I mean, when I say normal.
01:09:44In this sense, now, if the topic comes up,
01:09:47we will say it, those who overlooked this,
01:09:51those who overlooked this, they overlooked it in an organized
01:09:55way, because Mehmet Şimşek made a statement last year
01:09:57that there is manipulation in the funds, and
01:10:01measures need to be taken. It's been more than a year,
01:10:04right, professor, they waited. What were you waiting
01:10:08for? I mean, we will talk about that when the time comes,
01:10:11that's a different thing, but let me ask the professor,
01:10:15because I am also curious, now funds declare default.
01:10:18Now, when they declare default, someone has a loan payment,
01:10:21someone else has another payment, I mean, people,
01:10:24in the end, there are those who will not be able to
01:10:28get their money even if they sell before 13:30 and
01:10:31it's fixed. Also, as announced, there are prices that
01:10:35are inflated excessively due to stock speculation,
01:10:38way above their value. Now,
01:10:42for example, there are people who buy a 5 lira stock for
01:10:4650,000 liras, I'm just giving an example. Now,
01:10:49if this person
01:10:52places a sell order even before the hour,
01:10:55and this fund cannot pay it, what
01:10:58will happen, they won't get their money. Yes, but funds,
01:11:02but no, before the hour, even if they give it, professor, I'm saying that up until now,
01:11:05there are those who got their money the day before,
01:11:09and they were also called back. I'm not even talking about
01:11:12what happens after that, I'm not talking about after 13:30
01:11:15at all. I've seen some explanations
01:11:19that say a debt will be written, and they have
01:11:22already recorded it separately in their accounts,
01:11:25so a payment will be made as a debtor, but not at the current
01:11:29value. Look, the issue we call
01:11:33default is this: these funds can never meet
01:11:36collective demand instantly. These assets need to be converted
01:11:39into cash somehow, meaning they need to be sold.
01:11:42In stock funds, there is T+2, so you give it today,
01:11:45and it comes back to you as cash
01:11:49two days later. So, it cannot be done instantly.
01:11:53Moreover, in an environment where everyone is heavily
01:11:57invested, it cannot be converted into cash instantly. In such
01:12:00a situation, the market would collapse. There are other
01:12:04measures taken today. Look, behind the prevention
01:12:07of the market collapse, there is a decision made
01:12:11by the Capital Markets Board. Our main issue here is
01:12:14what we call a margin call. Here,
01:12:17we are now moving past small individuals. Big investors,
01:12:20qualified investors, etc., largely make
01:12:23leveraged purchases, meaning they don't buy with their
01:12:27own assets, they don't buy with the money in their bank,
01:12:30they might be playing with a very small amount of their own
01:12:34money, but largely with credit. And therefore, there is
01:12:37also a certain amount of equity protection here,
01:12:41it was around 35%. Your total assets, these
01:12:45BIST index stocks, are valued at 80-90%,
01:12:48smaller, worse stocks are valued at 20%.
01:12:52For example, an equity amount is calculated there.
01:12:56When this falls below 35%, meaning if you have a 100,000
01:13:00lira stock position, and the equity calculation
01:13:03for that position falls below 35,000,
01:13:06a sell order is given. This is called a margin call.
01:13:10In all major financial crises, in stock market crises,
01:13:14the main reason is this margin call. Now, when the situation
01:13:17of liquidating these funds arose, the
01:13:20most important threat was the margin call. Why did the banks
01:13:25collapse yesterday? I mean, actually,
01:13:27there is no situation that would threaten major banks
01:13:31like İş Bankası, Garanti Akbank, etc. The reason
01:13:35for a collapse led by all these big banks
01:13:38was a great concern in the market due to this margin call.
01:13:42By reducing the equity protection ratio here to 20%,
01:13:45the Capital Markets Board eased the market there,
01:13:49it separated other stocks, separated small
01:13:52stocks from large, reliable stocks. It said, okay, there's
01:13:56nothing we can do about the others, because you can't support those
01:13:59prices, they are not prices that can be supported. Unfortunately,
01:14:03it's a situation where the investor who enters there will largely
01:14:06be victimized. Each fund is within itself, one fund
01:14:10does not transfer to another. There are money market funds,
01:14:14government bond index funds, there is nothing there. In these
01:14:18stock funds, the losses of each fund will be evaluated
01:14:21within itself, and the stocks will be sold. Therefore, the loss
01:14:40that arises there will be distributed equally
01:14:43among all investors. There is no deposit guarantee
01:14:47for deposits in the other one, there is only the BRSA's
01:14:49supervision guarantee, meaning I supervise these, their operations
01:14:53are under my supervision.
01:15:07It didn't go bankrupt, look, it defaulted,
01:15:11it couldn't make payments, yes, it couldn't make payments,
01:15:15when there is a very strong outflow from the system at once,
01:15:18that money is tied to somewhere, it's the same for funds.
01:15:22When we say default, they say bankruptcy, no, a part of your asset is still there.
01:15:25At least, because the stock value has decreased,
01:15:29it cannot return to cash anyway. The nature of the asset is not suitable
01:15:32for it to turn into cash immediately, and if you try to turn it
01:15:36into cash immediately, the values will not stop anyway. The common
01:15:38aspect of the shares they play is,
01:15:42look, for a while, measures had started to be taken there.
01:15:46These are very low liquidity shares, meaning
01:15:49these brokerage firms that do not have much volume
01:15:53can easily make the share hit the ceiling with a single move and carry
01:15:57it at the ceiling for days. You cannot make such moves in
01:16:00large banks, etc., and they also did it in their savings,
01:16:04by the way, they showed their power, that was experienced
01:16:07in the past months, okay, let this be our trailer, we will talk about
01:16:11this at 23:00, dear viewers. Former MASAK
01:16:14Deputy Chairman Ramazan Başak will also be with us
01:16:18via remote connection.
01:16:30should be a candidate, 2. Early
01:16:32elections should be in April
01:16:362028, 3. This decision should be
01:16:39made now. What is this?
01:16:42Is the government afraid of a mishap
01:16:45regarding early elections? What might it be planning
01:16:48by putting this decision in its pocket now?
01:16:52What do you think is under all this agenda?
01:16:55Oh, Mr. Gökmen, they say
01:16:58life is what happens while you're making plans, right?
01:17:02So, this much has happened to us too, of course,
01:17:05actually you will talk about that in the next segment,
01:17:09but I would like to say this much: there is the
01:17:12first article of the Capital Markets Law,
01:17:16very clearly, the objectives of the law and
01:17:20the duties of the board are also listed, to ensure
01:17:23the secure, transparent, efficient, stable, fair, and
01:17:26competitive functioning and development of the capital market, and
01:17:29to regulate and supervise the capital market to protect the rights
01:17:33and interests of investors. It said this, it was not
01:17:36enough, it was not enough, and what else is there?
01:17:40There are sub-departments of the Capital Markets Board,
01:17:43the Surveillance and Inspection Department, it has a very clear
01:17:47job, I will just go to your question, if I don't say this, it won't
01:17:51sit right with me, very clear. What is its job? Look,
01:17:55really, here, it says to monitor unusual price and
01:17:58transaction volumes, the possibility of market fraud,
01:18:01and the shortcomings and information of collective
01:18:05investment institutions. "My duty,
01:18:08my duty. Now, since November, an international
01:18:12organization's warning in June, a new
01:18:15measure taken in August. We need to ask
01:18:18what they have done. While they were dealing with
01:18:21opposition municipalities, did those in the stock market
01:18:24relax? Was it overlooked? What happened? With all this
01:18:28concentration, this swell, how did this happen
01:18:31when there are legal obligations regarding surveillance and
01:18:34supervision? These are questions that demand answers. Okay, you will
01:18:38talk about this later, but we have very important legal
01:18:41legislation, and why haven't its requirements
01:18:44been met? We need independent institutions so much, don't
01:18:48we? Not just in the judiciary, but in all
01:18:51places. Now, let's come to the part you mentioned.
01:18:54First of all, the MPs will make this decision.
01:18:57Of course, it is known that our constitution
01:19:00is not being applied, but they swore
01:19:03to abide by the constitution with loyalty,
01:19:07honor, and integrity. Now, when it says elected
01:19:11kez seçilir derken anayasanın bir gerekçesi var, hani bize
01:19:14söylüyorlar gidiyoruz referandumda falan diye ama o anayasa
01:19:18yazılırken bir de gerekçe yazılıyor altına o gerekçede bu iki
01:19:22kezin ne olduğunu bilmeleri lazım bu oylamaya
01:19:24katılanların eee orada diyor ki yani
01:19:28çok güzel bir gerekçe o yüzden izninizle çok da kısa çok
01:19:31kısa demokratik sistemin temel taşlarından
01:19:35olan güçler ayrılığı ve iktidar. dengelenmesi
01:19:38ilkeleridir, bunun gerekçesi iki kez seçilmek. Bu
01:19:42hukuku, bu pardon, bu hüküm eee yetkin tek
01:19:46bir elde ve süresiz olarak toplanmasını
01:19:49engellemek, siyasi yenilenmeye
01:19:53ve yetki devrine, yetki devrine imkan
01:19:56sağlamak için konulmuştur. Şimdi biz şöyle bir
01:20:00garip durumdayız, eee, siyaset niye var,
01:20:03siyaset kurumu, bu yöneticiler falan, bu halkın.
01:20:07people and then promise prosperity and freedom,
01:20:11and they are supposed to deliver that prosperity and freedom.
01:20:15These elections have been going on for years,
01:20:18and there are economic problems, and we have seen many serious
01:20:21perceptions that push the people's economic problems to the
01:20:25background, such as existential problems, religious
01:20:28and ethnic fault lines, etc. What changes? Nothing changes.
01:20:31We are falling further and further behind, but unfortunately,
01:20:35they don't stop making us talk about
01:20:38elections and politics. And now, as your question
01:20:42also includes, today we are hearing and
01:20:46discussing the statements of the appointed person.
01:20:49There were already problems before.
01:20:52They are in trouble. President Erdoğan will enter
01:20:55his most difficult election. This shows it.
01:20:58It's a difficult election. The economic distress is
01:21:01already beyond explanation. It's being experienced.
01:21:04Due to the lack of independence of these institutions,
01:21:08we are facing another very serious robbery,
01:21:11and in this robbery, of course, we need to see if there are reflections
01:21:15of bureaucratic political identities,
01:21:18because that fire is constantly burning
01:21:22in our pockets, and we are talking about the
01:21:25Presidency again. Because it will be a very difficult
01:21:29election, they want to secure this.
01:21:32This is the only explanation for this.
01:21:35To find 360. At this point, of course,
01:21:39this process is also ongoing, the process of a Turkey
01:21:42without terrorism. Of course, we hope it continues successfully
01:21:46and ends, reaches its conclusion, we are all for that.
01:21:49Of course, it is progressing within the framework of security.
01:21:53Even if the legal aspect is missing, could there
01:21:56be a halt there? Could there be other developments
01:22:00that we don't know about? Is there a situation
01:22:03of securing it now to relieve themselves?
01:22:08But I want to say this: after such a decision
01:22:11is made, the function of the parliament is obvious.
01:22:14When we look at everything from the way laws are made
01:22:18to its budget, we are in a system where our representatives,
01:22:21the deputies, fulfill their duties effectively and competently,
01:22:24aren't we? After this election decision is made,
01:22:28we also need to see how the process in Turkey
01:22:31will work. Will the decision for early elections
01:22:35çağrı olacak mı erken seçim kararı? almak değil mi
01:22:39Erdoğan said something.
01:22:42He says, "If you can't buy
01:22:46the egg you bought with the minimum wage 8 years ago,
01:22:50if you can't buy milk, if you can't buy cheese,
01:22:53if you can't buy the bread you bought, or if
01:22:56you buy less, don't vote for me," he said
01:22:59in 2011. Now, this people
01:23:02has fallen behind in all of these, and Mr. Gökmen, he can't
01:23:06even control the egg prices. While he can't control
01:23:08egg prices, while diesel has reached triple
01:23:11digits, and we are still talking about early elections
01:23:15and being pressured to have early elections.
01:23:18they are in a situation.
01:23:21That's why I wanted to remind the MPs who will vote
01:23:25of their oath to the constitution. So, we need to consider
01:23:28how much more sacrifice this nation
01:23:31can make. If 5 million
01:23:35retirees today were to change their preferences,
01:23:39no matter what they do, even if they decide
01:23:42on early elections, even if President Erdoğan becomes a candidate
01:23:46one more time, the result will not be different.
01:23:50But for this process, the moves they will make
01:23:53not for the benefit of the people, but
01:23:56based on their own political strategies, for their own
01:24:00benefit, for their own seats, really, they talk about
01:24:03legitimacy in Turkey. I just watched the guests,
01:24:07forget about legitimacy, in terms of health,
01:24:11what will be left of the health of this country,
01:24:14these people, this society, this legislature, executive, and judiciary?
01:24:18That's a big question mark. So,
01:24:22now, I will ask my friends for visual number
01:24:24one, and then visual number two. Because Ms. Figen
01:24:28also said, let's say they gathered the parliament
01:24:32these days or in these weeks or in these months.
01:24:36They found 360, they passed and made the
01:24:39decision for early elections. After that decision, what
01:24:43will happen in the period leading up to the early elections?
01:24:46What will the citizens experience? What will the new party experience,
01:24:50IBB? What will happen to the trials, etc., etc.? Now,
01:24:53this is important, because when Şamil Tayyar
01:24:56put forward his proposal, saying, "I think it's
01:25:00beneficial to decide on early elections now, regardless
01:25:04of when they will be held under current conditions," he states
01:25:07that he believes this will benefit the country as follows:
01:25:11"Parties will continue their preparations accordingly, the concern of snap or early elections will
01:25:15disappear, political stress will decrease, polemics will end,
01:25:18normalization will begin." Look, he says, "political stress
01:25:22will decrease, polemics will end, and normalization will begin."
01:25:24I wonder if my guests think this way,
01:25:28that political stress will decrease, polemics will end, and
01:25:31normalization will begin, because there is
01:25:34a news piece shared by Nuray Babacan
01:25:38based on AK Party backstage information. What kind of game plan
01:25:41is the government in? What are the new
01:25:45plans they have prepared? Now, my friends
01:25:49prepared the headlines like this: The plans
01:25:52will be made for the second round.
01:25:55The plans will be made for the second round.
01:25:58A new area will be created for disgruntled
01:26:01conservatives. The DEVA, Felicity, and
01:26:05New Welfare alliance will be supported.
01:26:08Thus, in the first round, the opposition bloc
01:26:12will be divided.
01:26:14In the second round, negotiations can be held
01:26:16with these parties.
01:26:20Some of these names
01:26:21will be taken into the cabinet.
01:26:25The second round, with the support
01:26:27of old friends and the Dem Party,
01:26:30will be overcome. The second round,
01:26:33old friends, meaning DEVA, Felicity, New
01:26:36Welfare. And will be overcome with Dem Party support.
01:26:40The new party will be challenged with immunities
01:26:43and new trial processes. The new party will be challenged
01:26:47with immunities and new trial processes.
01:26:50"You can read a detailed article with breathing, dear
01:26:53viewers, it has described it in even more detail.
01:26:57Let's ask Fikret Abi. Fikret Abi, let's say such
01:27:01an early election date has been accepted in parliament,
01:27:04and an early election decision has been made.
01:27:08After it's accepted, what can Turkey experience
01:27:11until that date? Now, there are clues
01:27:15regarding this in the backstage information provided by Nuray Babacan.
01:27:18What do you say?" "Yes, of course, I
01:27:22have no doubt that the AK Party
01:27:25will seek the votes and support of conservative parties
01:27:29that are in opposition but can support the government,
01:27:32meaning it will seek the support of the parties
01:27:35forming a new path and their MPs.
01:27:38To guarantee their re-election, it may
01:27:42give them places from its own lists of
01:27:46MPs. With such an alliance, it can get
01:27:50votes. One of the ways
01:27:53to be able to decide on early elections
01:27:55now is to enter into a dialogue
01:27:59with these parties. Similarly, an alliance can be formed
01:28:03with independent candidates. As I stated
01:28:06in the first part, if the expectations of the Dem Party for a Turkey
01:28:10without terrorism are met to a certain
01:28:14extent, it can guarantee the support of the Dem Party
01:28:17in parliament. Thus, it will have decided
01:28:20on early elections. However, it is not
01:28:23possible to know whether policies will change or
01:28:27new policies will be adopted after the early election
01:28:30decision. But the AK Party wants to guarantee
01:28:33re-election by deciding on early elections before
01:28:37the current situation in parliament deteriorates further. The AK Party
01:28:40wants to guarantee Mr. Erdoğan's re-candidacy. We understand
01:28:43this. The reason for their haste is not
01:28:46to hold the elections too early, but to be able to decide
01:28:50on early elections immediately. They think that they might
01:28:52face a problem in the future, so now that the parliamentary
01:28:55arithmetic is suitable, let's include the new path MPs in the alliance,
01:28:59and let's also give places
01:29:02to independents and get their support. If we also
01:29:06get the Dem Party's MPs, then
01:29:09we will have the majority for an early election decision
01:29:13in the constitution. And once an early election
01:29:16decision is made, Mr. Erdoğan's third candidacy will be guaranteed.
01:29:19Considering the possibility of not being able to overcome
01:29:22future problems, it is understood that the ruling
01:29:26party is inclined to make this decision now. They are testing
01:29:29the waters for this, such initiatives may be taken.
01:29:32We will observe this. Now, regarding the framework
01:29:36law, regarding a Turkey without terrorism, there has
01:29:39not yet been very rapid progress. There is also
01:29:43a hesitation here that is worth remembering. Now,
01:29:46there is a public reaction to this. So,
01:29:50regarding the steps the AK Party
01:29:53will take, Bahçeli openly said he supported it,
01:29:57but the AK Party is a bit more distant, Mr. Erdoğan is a bit
01:30:00more distant from this issue, because in the 2013-2015
01:30:03period, another opening process
01:30:06was experienced, intellectuals, journalists,
01:30:09writers were sent to Anatolia, the issue was explained.
01:30:12However, the voters reacted to that process
01:30:16in the 2015 elections and caused the AK Party
01:30:19to lose its single-party rule. Now, there is also
01:30:23a concern whether the voters will react in a similar
01:30:26way to this new opening process. That's why the AK Party is
01:30:30taking very slow steps. But if the Dem Party imposes
01:30:33some conditions for the early election decision
01:30:36and makes it mandatory, then perhaps the AK Party
01:30:40and the MHP may choose to meet some of the
01:30:44Dem Party's expectations, right? Yes, Professor Doğan,
01:30:47what do you say? How do Nuray Hanım's
01:30:51predictions come across to you politically?
01:30:54Well, these are already happening right now,
01:30:58beyond predictions, of course, valuable assessments,
01:31:01but many of them are happening. I want to start from here.
01:31:05Now, there's this last emphasis, isn't there?
01:31:08He will be a candidate for the last time. The year
01:31:11is 2009. The year is 2009. So, how many years ago?
01:31:158 years ago, Professor, you wouldn't
01:31:18believe it. 17 years ago,
01:31:22there's something like this, he says, Mr. President,
01:31:25at that time, at the party level, there was
01:31:29a three-term rule, and he says, did he say 2009?
01:31:362009. The 2011 elections, he says, are my last candidacy
01:31:40in this context. But he also says a very beautiful
01:31:44thing: "I won't be stuck to my seat like some others."
01:31:47That was in 2009. After that, he really doesn't
01:31:51run for MP again because he will be elected president anyway.
01:31:55But there's a "last" emphasis there. I'll come back to why
01:31:59this "last" is important later. In 2012,
01:32:02at the AKP congress, he says, "I will be a general
01:32:05chairman candidate for the fourth and last time."
01:32:09He returns to the AKP general chairmanship after the presidential
01:32:12system with a party leader is adopted. But most importantly,
01:32:16the 2023 elections. In the 2023 elections,
01:32:19he very clearly, although he said it several times,
01:32:23in Samsun, Mr. President says, "With the strength
01:32:26we will gain from the support we asked
01:32:30from our nation for the last time in 2023,
01:32:33we will start the construction of the Turkish Century and hand
01:32:37over this blessed flag to our youth." So, in the
01:32:39previous election, we were told, "This is the last."
01:32:42So, this was the last. Therefore, it was clearly stated
01:32:46by the president himself that he would not be a candidate
01:32:49again. Before the 2024 local elections, Mr. President
01:32:53also spoke at Tügva's coordination meeting and said,
01:32:57"For me, this is a final." So, even going into the local
01:33:00elections, he said, "I was elected for the last time in
01:33:032023, and these 2024 local elections will be my
01:33:07last election, according to the authority given by the law."
01:33:10He asks for support in the local elections.
01:33:14Now, in this environment, with the economic situation,
01:33:18the emergence of another very serious presidential candidate, etc.,
01:33:21Mr. Erdoğan's, the government's, and
01:33:24its partners' most important concern is
01:33:27to consolidate their own neighborhood. Now, this
01:33:31"last" emphasis is for this. Meaning, those who
01:33:34were offended, alienated, those who supported for many
01:33:38years, as Mr. Tanur Kul also said, only Erdoğan can
01:33:41bestow these problems. But voters who might say, "this
01:33:45has become too much," and we are talking about
01:33:48a quarter of a century, the "last" emphasis
01:33:51is actually for this. Are they saying, "please,
01:33:55one more time," yes, this is the last, because
01:33:59even people who have been with him for years might
01:34:02say, "we walked together until now." Because the government
01:34:05no longer has the concern of convincing those outside
01:34:09their own neighborhood. The main thing is to hold onto
01:34:13what they have. That's why this started many
01:34:17years ago, this is not new, like the reopening of Hagia
01:34:20Sophia as a mosque. He is using his weapons
01:34:23slowly in the last process to somehow convince
01:34:27the conservative voters. That's why the "last"
01:34:31gerçekten sondu onlar açısından ama iktidar için Erdoğan bir
01:34:34mecburiyet yani kazanabilmek için devam edebilmek için ve kendilerine
01:34:38onunla özdeşleştiren kitlelerin iktidarda kalabilmeleri için
01:34:41de eee Cumhur Ittifakında olduğu gibi mesela Bahçeli çok. tehlikeli bir
01:34:45örnek vermiş, yani kendi amblemini örnek olarak koymuş, bugüne
01:34:49kadar iki hilali eee başardık, aldık üçüncü hilal yani
01:34:53seçilemezse MHP'nin üç hilali gitmiş mi oluyor yani bir hilal eksik mi
01:34:56kalmış oluyor, kadar riskli bir eee destek veriyor şimdi
01:35:00bu muhafazakar partiler şimdi öbekler var muhafazakar şunu
01:35:03söyleyeyim yani ta 2009'dan beri bu son
01:35:06vurgusunu yapıyor iktidar yapıyor iktidar yapıyor yapıyor evet en
01:35:09emphasis is important
01:35:13here. So, this "last" was
01:35:18told to us many times, and the last presidential
01:35:21election in 2023 was really the last for them,
01:35:24but for the government, Erdoğan is a necessity.
01:35:28So, Uçum says he will be a candidate
01:35:31for the last time. So, he should say,
01:35:34"this time he will really be a candidate for the last time."
01:35:38But he doesn't say that, does he? He doesn't say that.
01:35:40And there is an important process here now.
01:35:44Now, he needs
01:35:49to solve these economic problems somehow, and
01:35:52the government no longer has many instruments for this.
01:35:56This does not seem very possible, because we are in a state
01:35:59of high alert, and the election is actually very close.
01:36:03Even if it is held in the last week of 2028, if they say
01:36:06"we held early elections a week ago,"
01:36:09no one in mainstream politics will be able to say
01:36:12anything about this in a Turkey where diplomas are cancelled today.
01:36:16So, even then, there is little time left.
01:36:20So, they are making these calculations in a more
01:36:23constrained position. Therefore, they will
01:36:26enter a state of high alert. Now, we talked about conservatives,
01:36:30who are there? DEVA, Felicity, New Welfare. Now, some
01:36:34discussions are taking place there. I heard rumors
01:36:37and it was written several times in this context.
01:36:40For example, lowering the election threshold. Why is lowering
01:36:44the election threshold important? Let's say it's 4% or 5%.
01:36:48Now, there are parties that operate in that
01:36:50band, and if they think they cannot exceed that band, people will turn to
01:36:54new parties. For example, the Victory Party. Now,
01:36:58many people who would vote for the Victory Party will
01:37:02vote for a new party. The concern of "why should my
01:37:05vote go to waste" is very widespread among these voters,
01:37:08especially Erdoğan's opponents. But if this threshold is lowered, then an alliance
01:37:12motive among people who are below the threshold but close
01:37:16to passing it may become more realistic. For example,
01:37:19New Welfare, DEVA, Felicity, okay? But of course, this
01:37:22is about the parliamentary elections, the arithmetic of the
01:37:26presidential election is different. But their mobility
01:37:29may come to the agenda in some way. So, there
01:37:33is the nationalist Victory Party, the Good Party.
01:37:36The Good Party may not have a big threshold problem, but
01:37:40it could still be risky in some positions. Among
01:37:43conservatives, there are Felicity, DEVA, New Welfare. But there
01:37:47is an important dynamic of the presidential
01:37:51election. New Welfare experienced this. So, New Welfare,
01:37:54in the last presidential election, by supporting the People's
01:37:58Alliance in the second round and appearing on that platform,
01:38:02stopped its rise. Otherwise, it would be much higher today. That's why Mr. Erbakan
01:38:06is very clear. He makes statements
01:38:09against Erdoğan and his policies, and he criticizes
01:38:12every step they take.
01:38:15Why does he do this in such a way? Because the rise of
01:38:18the New Welfare Party has very clearly stopped,
01:38:22and the most important reason for this is that there is
01:38:25now a very serious anti-Erdoğan sentiment at the grassroots
01:38:29among conservative voters. Therefore, it will be a bit difficult
01:38:33for New Welfare to turn to that side,
01:38:36as Nuray Babacan said, because this will have
01:38:40a cost, and no one bathes in the same water twice.
01:38:43Now, a Sinan Oğan example there are such things in the scenario, that is,
01:38:47let's divide it in the first round so that we leave it for the second round, in the second round, now in 2023,
01:38:50they already did this in some way, that is,
01:38:54the nationalists went to Erdoğan's side in the second round. This was both a
01:39:09demoralization for the nationalist voters,
01:39:12for the nationalist voters who were against Erdoğan, it was a demoralization,
01:39:15and it gave Erdoğan a very serious boost and morale in the second round.
01:39:19That's why Nuray Babacan says this: In the second round, old
01:39:23friends, it's not easy. Old friends are a bit complicated.
01:39:26Their support is difficult for me, because I don't think the government
01:39:29can take serious steps in the process. There's no time left anyway, because
01:39:33if that serious step is not within the constitutional framework,
01:39:37the government cannot get meaningful support from them. Because they
01:39:40will only enter that situation with a constitutional guarantee that will be approved and voted on in the constitution.
01:39:44In the second round, bargaining with these parties will really be like
01:39:47washing oneself twice in the same water. In this sense, the government
01:39:51is in a tight spot in terms of the presidential election. That's why it is making these final remarks
01:39:54very seriously. Okay, so you
01:39:58are sharing with us the analysis of whether this will work or not,
01:40:02not just the backstage news of Nuray Babacan. I'm saying these things are happening.
01:40:05I forgot one last point there, let me tell you. Most importantly,
01:40:09here, the new party immunities.
01:40:12The real event with the new lawsuits is the last point, because
01:40:16look, what Murat said, I was going to connect it there, I'm sorry, I forgot it while I was talking.
01:40:19What did Murat say? He said they don't have very serious
01:40:23instruments in the economy, but they do have this instrument,
01:40:25maybe he agrees, IBB. Look, what happened today?
01:40:29Ekrem Eray resigned from the CHP group
01:40:32in IBB and said that he was tired of these conflicts, etc.
01:40:36In fact, he was already the former provincial chairman of the Democratic Party, not a CHP member.
01:40:40I think this is also one of the government's biggest operations as we head towards the election.
01:40:43You are talking about the rhetoric of a similar operation, right, Doğan Hodja,
01:40:47especially now that it's come to light with Üsküdar, they are coming to IBB,
01:40:50they are coming to the IBB council. Nuray Babacan says
01:40:54we are everywhere in Turkey. Despite all these pressures,
01:41:00we are showing great resistance. We are fighting under the leadership
01:41:03of our general chairman. We are offering a vision to Turkey.
01:41:07We are ultimately sure that when this ballot box is put forward,
01:41:10we will ensure the security of the ballot box. We see that too, and in the end,
01:41:13this government will definitely change at the ballot box.
01:41:16That is, whether Erdoğan will be a candidate or not, whether he will form an alliance with this one or that one.
01:41:20In the end, our citizens will vote with their consciences
01:41:23for the future of Turkey. And this vote will be
01:41:27in favor of the change of this government after 25 years.
01:41:30This is the situation I see. I mean, it's not because of some abundance.
01:41:34If they didn't have these fears, as Ismail just explained,
01:41:38they wouldn't have committed this cruelty in these IBB cases.
01:41:41That is, they wouldn't have committed such obvious cruelty.
01:41:44I am saying this as someone who has followed all judicial processes
01:41:47from the beginning of the Constitutional Court until now.
01:41:51They are afraid, really afraid.
01:41:54And with that fear, they are trying to do all sorts of illegal things.
01:41:57Just yesterday or the day before, the accounts of our closest friends were closed.
01:42:01Ali İsmail Korkmaz. Look,
01:42:04access to his accounts was blocked. Access to the accounts of peace academicians
01:42:08was blocked. Access to many accounts,
01:42:10our friends, accounts of our journalist friends,
01:42:14access to Evrensel newspaper was blocked. at a certain time,
01:42:18and even a couple of times they finished at 1 or 1:30 at night. And now, the lawyers are rightfully saying
01:42:21that holding these hearings until this late
01:42:25is a violation of human rights,
01:42:29it's torture, both for the defendants and for the lawyers.
01:42:32They repeatedly voiced their objections, and they are still voicing them.
01:42:36The chairman and management of the Istanbul Bar Association came to the courtroom two days ago
01:42:39in the evening and spoke about this, saying
01:42:42that this situation violates both their professional rights and human rights.
01:42:46And they were very right. And it's not just that. For example, there are also demands
01:42:50that only the names of those whose statements will be taken on that day be read,
01:42:53and no one else's statement be taken. Because why? The lawyers there
01:42:57sometimes wait to ask a question and conduct a cross-examination.
01:43:00But it's not clear when it will be their turn. People wait there for 12 hours, and at night,
01:43:04that is, when the hearing starts in the morning, the names of those whose statements will be taken
01:43:08today should be announced from the very beginning. The board sometimes does this,
01:43:12sometimes it doesn't. It has done it twice so far.
01:43:15That is, it does it when it feels like it. Therefore,
01:43:18there is such a problem. I hope it will be overcome.
01:43:21But as far as I understand, they also want to finish the hearing as soon as possible,
01:43:25to rule on this case as soon as possible, with incredible speed.
01:43:29But of course, this is not appropriate for the profession,
01:43:31for law, or for human rights. This issue needs to be resolved somehow.
01:43:34Our expectation is very clear: The hearings should start at 10 AM.
01:43:37When we go to Çağlayan or Kartal, the hearings start at 9 or 9:30 AM.
01:43:40They can also start at 10 AM there, and end at 6 or 6:30 PM.
01:43:43This is a very normal situation. How much is it from how much now?
01:43:47We don't see it starting before 11 or 11:30 AM, especially for the last 2 or 3 weeks.
01:43:50From the beginning, it started at 10 AM, then it came to 10:30, 11, 11:30.
01:43:53Now it doesn't start before 11:30. And in the evenings, it ends around
01:43:5711 or 12 o'clock, sometimes even later.
01:44:00Therefore, urgent measures need to be taken in this regard. For now, like this.
01:44:04And you will comment on my main question, but before that, I would ask you,
01:44:07you are here, but we will say goodbye to Sezgin Bey before the commercial break.
01:44:11He will convey his comment. Then you will share your comment
01:44:15with us in terms of the IBB process. Sezgin Bey, what do you say?
01:44:18Nuray Babacan says, yes, the government has new game plans,
01:44:22and these are the ones that the new party will get from these plans.
01:44:25What do you say, sir? Of course,
01:44:28we are not expecting that the Justice and Development Party
01:44:31will suddenly become democratic, that there will be democratization,
01:44:35that judicial practices will improve, and that we will go to an election
01:44:39in such a framework. This is contrary to the nature of things.
01:44:43The system they established is a system that can only progress with pressure.
01:44:46That's why we live in such an unfair environment in every field.
01:44:49They will raise this even more, because how many cases do you have against you, Sezgin Bey?
01:44:52Well, I guess there are about 20 now. I guess it should be close to 20.
01:44:56And they also know that their system only works with pressure
01:44:59and in an unfair environment. That's why they use all the tools
01:45:02they have, and at the top of these comes the judiciary.
01:45:05They have used the judiciary against the opposition in every matter so far,
01:45:08and they will continue to use it. Will we back down because of these? No.
01:45:12I mean, in the last 3-4 months, I have been an election observer in two countries.
01:45:15One was Hungary, and the other was Kazakhstan.
01:45:19I saw there, we have the opportunity to compare
01:45:23with world examples. That is, we also have the opportunity to compare
01:45:26this regime with world examples. I believe,
01:45:30I mean, I sincerely believe, I see the field constantly.
01:45:33It's not like what journalists and commentators do. People are not like that.
01:45:37They will cooperate with the party, Kurds will go to the polls,
01:45:41they will vote for Erdoğan, or the party voters,
01:45:43there is no such world. There is none.
01:45:46That is, it is impossible for Erdoğan to convince the Turkish voters, whom he has oppressed so much
01:45:49in this environment. This is not something that will happen
01:45:52in a year or so. That is, the conservative voters.
01:45:56So much corruption, so much illegality,
01:45:59so much, I mean,
01:46:03they see the situation much more than us, because
01:46:06they came from the same neighborhood, they lived in the same neighborhood.
01:46:09So, what can the new party do
01:46:12so that Erdoğan cannot realize these plans,
01:46:16that is, so that he cannot involve the conservatives or the party members
01:46:19in this way? That is, what can be done?
01:46:22That's why, look, that's why the time has come for the new party.
01:46:25We founded the new party and we are progressing rapidly. Really, sir,
01:46:29I need to go to commercial. We don't have such funds.
01:46:33Our only source of income is these humble commercials of this television.
01:46:36So, please complete it, Mr. Sezgin, okay?
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02:00:08They think that an autocratic form of government, the concentration of power in one hand,
02:00:12the decision-maker being one person, the absence of a balance mechanism,
02:00:15is more correct for them. That's why they want it to continue like this.
02:00:18Also, there are powers in Turkey that have grown strong from this regime,
02:00:22in bureaucracy, in the judiciary, in the economy.
02:00:25There are powers that have emerged with these. And they are clinging to this order with all their might.
02:00:28With all their might. I really have a lot to say.
02:00:31For example, if they didn't trust this system,
02:00:35would a electricity distribution company close to the government, called Dedaş,
02:00:37commit this cruelty to our citizens in 6 provinces? I mean, who wants this order to continue?
02:00:41These people want it, because their order will be disrupted.
02:00:44Well, thank you very much. I wish you good broadcasts.
02:00:47Again, greetings and love, Sezgin Tanrı, thank you.
02:00:51Ismail Emretelci, we were going to say goodbye to Sezgin,
02:00:54so you had to leave it half-finished. This is what Nuray Babacan said,
02:00:57they will do these things. And regarding the new party,
02:01:01there will be even more pressure, even more moves, like operations against municipalities.
02:01:05Doğan Hodja said that this is already being done now,
02:01:08but is something worse being planned? What's going on?
02:01:11Well, a little while ago, Murat Hodja said
02:01:15that option A is to fix the economy,
02:01:17and option B is to neutralize the opposition. Actually, option B is their option.
02:01:21First, let's neutralize the opposition, that's my opinion.
02:01:25Then, if there's time, we'll look at the economy.
02:01:29Because the reason for this is, I think the government knows very well
02:01:32that no matter what they do, they have no chance of fixing the economy.
02:01:36The retiree, that is, the pension given to the retiree
02:01:39has no chance of being more than a social aid. For example, 30,000 liras.
02:01:42For example, my father gets 30,000. My father was a civil servant
02:01:46who served the state for 27 years. He is a retired civil servant.
02:01:50What will they do with 30,000? They will make it 40,000.
02:01:54What will happen if they make it 40,000? How will this man live with 40,000?
02:01:57Do they think the retirees can live
02:02:01without receiving help from their families? No, they know very well
02:02:04that they cannot live. Therefore,
02:02:07they have no chance of fixing the economy. They have no chance of lowering inflation.
02:02:11I mean, it might go below 30% to some extent, right, sir? But that's also doubtful now.
02:02:14It's over. There's no such thing. For example,
02:02:18we talked about this fund and so on a little while ago, and we will talk about it again,
02:02:21but I will go very generally. There is no free market in Turkey.
02:02:25People have no opportunities to invest. There is a floating exchange rate regime in name,
02:02:28but since there is no free market, there is actually a fixed exchange rate system
02:02:31as a result of state banks selling from behind. Therefore,
02:02:34those who want to escape from this sometimes enter the stock market.
02:02:38We experienced this 2-3 years ago. In fact, a certain stock attracted a lot of attention.
02:02:41The owner of the stock came out and said, "My stock is not that valuable."
02:02:45They attacked him. Now, after some time passes,
02:02:48in my opinion, there is an organized crime incident.
02:02:52We experienced fund incidents. How do we know? The Minister of Finance
02:02:56came out and said that no measures were taken for a year. Those who caused these measures not to be taken,
02:02:59its counterpart, etc., etc. Therefore,
02:03:03now the main target is, since the economy is already bad
02:03:06and has become inextricable,
02:03:10But the critical point is this: There are two aspects here.
02:03:13They acted similarly
02:03:15in the local elections. That is, they tried to isolate
02:03:19the Republican People's Party at that time,
02:03:22and by isolating it, they tried to attract
02:03:26their allies to their side and make them act against the CHP
02:03:29so that they would not succeed. What happened? The citizens reacted very strongly.
02:03:33In fact, we said this here at that time, that the citizens at that time elected
02:03:36Ekrem İmamoğlu, the mayoral candidate of Istanbul,
02:03:39and Mansur Yavaş, the mayor of Ankara Metropolitan Municipality,
02:03:43with a much larger vote. And even that was not enough.
02:03:46Under the chairmanship of Özgür Özel, they elected.
02:03:50razılar, daha hesaplarına geliyor
02:03:52eee,
02:03:54yani ortadoğudaki düzen, dünyadaki düzen, ABD'deki
02:03:58yönetim biçimi falan Türkiye'de demokratik bir düzeni
02:04:01değil, bir parlamenter rejimi değil, hukuka uygun bir düzeni
02:04:05değil, eee böyle bir düzenin kendileri için daha elverişli
02:04:09olduğunu düşünüyorlar, otokratik bir yönetim biçiminin
02:04:12eee gücün tek elde toplanmasının, kararvericinin tek
02:04:15kişi olmasının denge... mekanizmasının olmamasının
02:04:19kendileri bakımından daha doğru olduğunu düşünüyorlar, o yüzden de
02:04:22böyle yani eee devam etmesini istiyorlar. bir
02:04:26de bu rejimden palazlanmış güçler var
02:04:29Türkiye'de bürokraside, yargıda
02:04:32ekonomide palazlanmış, bunlarla ortaya çıkmış
02:04:35güçler var, onlar da dört elle sarılmışlar bu düzene,
02:04:39dört elle, hani benim söyleyeceğim gerçekten çok
02:04:43söz var, mesela yani bu
02:04:46düzene güvenmese. dedaş denilen yani
02:04:49böyle iktidara yakın olan bir elektrik dağıtım şirketi
02:04:536 ilde yurttaşlarımıza bu zulmü yapabilir mi
02:04:56yani onların düzeni bozulacak kim istiyor bu düzen?
02:05:00devamını işte bunlar istiyorlar, düzenleri bozulacak
02:05:15beda edecektik, o yüzden yarım eee kesp bırakmak
02:05:19durumunda kalmıştınız, bu Nuray Babacan'ın söylediği
02:05:23işte bunları bunları yapacaklar, ha yeni parti ile ilgili
02:05:26de ayrıca daha da baskı, daha da fazla hamle işte. belediyelere
02:05:30yönelik operasyonlar. Doğan hocam dedi ki, aslında zaten
02:05:34hani bu yapılıyor şu anda ama daha mı acaba
02:05:37beteri planlanıyor, ne oluyor, ne bitiyor? Şöyle
02:05:40eee, az önce Murat hocam dedi
02:05:44ki, hani A seçeneği ekonomiyi düzeltmek, b
02:05:47seçeneği de eee muhalefeti hani
02:05:51etkisizleştirmek, aslında b seçeneği onların seçeneği.
02:05:54Önce muhalefeti etkisi etkisizleştirelim, benim
02:05:57düşüncem bu şey, sonra. ekonomiye zaman
02:06:01kalırsa bakarız, çünkü bunun nedeni şu, bence iktidar şunu
02:06:04gayet iyi biliyor, ne
02:06:07yaparsa yapsınlar, ekonomiyi düzeltme ihtimalleri
02:06:10yok, emekliyi yani
02:06:13emekliye verilen aylığın bir sosyal yardımdan öteye geçme ihtimali
02:06:17yok mesela yani 30.00 lira mesela benim babam 30.000 alıyor, benim
02:06:21babam 27 sene devlete hizmet etmiş memurdu, memur
02:06:23emekçisi 30.000 ne yapacaklar yani 40.000 yapacaklar yap
02:06:2740.000 ne yap ne olacak yani 40.000 nasıl geçinecek bu
02:06:30adam yani emekliler
02:06:34ailelerinden yardım almadıkça yani
02:06:37geçinebiliyorlar mı zannediyorlar iktidarlar hayır yani geçinemediklerini çok iyi
02:06:41biliyorlar dolayısıyla bir ekonomiyi düzeltme ihtimalleri
02:06:45yok enflasyonu indirme
02:06:47ihtimalleri yok yani %30'un altına belki bir nebze inebilir
02:06:51değil mi hocam yani şey ama da şüpheli artık yani o da geçmiş olsun
02:06:55yok böyle bir şey yani eee mesela az önce
02:06:59konuştuk işte bu fon vesaire yine de konuşacağız ama çok genel
02:07:02gireceğim, Türkiye'de bir serbest piyasa yok,
02:07:06insanların yatırım yapma imkanları yok, dalgalı kur
02:07:10rejimi sözde var ama serbest piyasa olmadığı için
02:07:13kabu bankaların arkadan satışları neticesinde aslında
02:07:17bir sabit kur sistemi var, eee dolayısıyla
02:07:20buradan kaçmak isteyenler zaman zaman işte borsaya giriyor, bundan
02:07:2423 sene önce yaşadık, hatta belilli bir hisse çok yöneldi, hissenin sahibi
02:07:28olan kişi çıktı dedi ki ya... benim islam bu kadar değerli değil dedi adamı topa
02:07:31tuttular işte aradan belli bir süre geçiyor işte bana göre
02:07:35bir organize suç olayı var işte fon olaylarını yaşadık
02:07:39nereden biliyoruz işte maliye bakanı çıktı söyledi bir sene boyunca
02:07:43tedbir alınmadı bu tedbirin alınmamasına sebebiyet verenler bunun
02:07:46karşlayıcısı vesaire vesaire vesaire dolayısıyla
02:07:49şimdi ana hedef dolayısıyla ekonomi zaten berbat
02:07:52olduğu için ve içinden çıkılamayacak bir hale geldiği için
02:07:56ana hedef zaten muhalefeti dağıtmak ama kritik
02:07:59konu şu: "şimdi burada iki husus var, yerel
02:08:02seçimlerde de benzer bir şekilde davrandılar,
02:08:06yani o dönemki cumhuriyet halk
02:08:08partisini yalnız
02:08:10yalnızlaştıralım ve yalnızlaştırınca
02:08:14işte zamanındaki ittifaktakileri yanımıza
02:08:16çekelim, onların CHP'nin aleyhine davranmasını sağlayalım ve
02:08:20başarı kazanamasınlar, ne oldu vatandaş çok büyük bir tepki
02:08:24verdi, hatta o dönem bunu söylemiştik burada
02:08:27vatandaş o dönem işte İstanbul'. belediye başkanı adayı ekrem
02:08:31imamoğlu'nun, Ankara Büyükşehir belediye başkanı Mansur
02:08:33Evaş'ı çok daha büyük bir oyla seçerek,
02:08:37hatta da yetmez eee Özgür Özeyin genel başkanlığındaki
02:08:41voted for the party at very high levels, with 37-38% of the votes,
02:08:44they voted for the future of Turkey, we said.
02:08:47Therefore, I don't think
02:08:51this isolation operation
02:08:54For one more reason,
02:08:57if you notice, now.
02:09:00As Nuray Babacan said in her news, new path, remedy,
02:09:03happiness, etc., old friends, old friends, actually, do you know who
02:09:07these are? Don't get hung up on the names, and the
02:09:10members of that party shouldn't get hung up on them either, please. I request that beforehand.
02:09:14Independent of the names,
02:09:16there are people who want to continue in the parliament and there are parties. Look, the equivalent of this in the
02:09:20previous election was the six-party table.
02:09:24So, who was the six-party table with at that time? That is, who are those who
02:09:28want to enter with now? They want to be passed.
02:09:31Therefore, actually, we can make
02:09:35a logical inference like this: In the previous election, they were with
02:09:39the loser. Now, the parliament also wants
02:09:42those who will lose the next election to be with them
02:09:45to increase their support. The miscalculation in the
02:09:48last election emerged. We were also
02:09:52mistaken. I was also mistaken at that time
02:09:54because I was the election official in Istanbul for the party,
02:09:58so I... it worked. I was also mistaken, I must say that openly.
02:10:02But it means that others will be mistaken in the
02:10:05coming period. I don't think this business,
02:10:09this scenario, will go very far, because this also shows weakness in the eyes of the citizens.
02:10:13This is essentially it. That's what we couldn't see at that time.
02:10:16The citizen actually saw that
02:10:19weakness. Whereas, our chance of getting votes by going
02:10:22it alone, that is, without needing
02:10:25any alliance, by entering the election, was
02:10:29much higher. We couldn't see this at that time. Let's speak openly about this.
02:10:33We were deceived, etc., etc.
02:10:36That is, also at this time, this is very important.
02:10:39The party talk is very
02:10:43common. Now, I think Erdoğan's
02:10:46calculations and what he actually expects
02:10:49is that, that is, even if the party
02:10:52has provided its support, what will the Kurds do?
02:10:56What will the voters do, let's say they got the party's support?
02:10:59What will you do with the voters? I think
02:11:03this is essentially the issue on the table,
02:11:07and I think Erdoğan is waiting for this, and let's not forget,
02:11:11Öcalan previously. "made a statement for the
02:11:14municipal elections, but the voters, the Kurdish
02:11:17voters, made their choice against his, now in this period,
02:11:21they listened to Demirtaş's call, not Öcalan's. Yes, now in this
02:11:25period, in this period,
02:11:28there are voices being tried to be suppressed from all sides regarding the Kurdish movement.
02:11:31That is, no, brother, Öcalan
02:11:34will speak, no one else will speak,"
02:11:38we see such an instigation and.
02:11:42"This is being tried to be dominated in the state
02:11:46and society, that is, everyone's consent is being tried to be obtained, but
02:11:50Erdoğan, in my opinion, will
02:11:53take this distance accordingly because he cannot
02:11:57predict what the voters will do. That is, as
02:12:00I said earlier, referendum or something, their decisions will be made
02:12:04after such processes, and
02:12:07this decision will be made after being sure of some processes. He, right now,
02:12:10nobody from the Kurdish movement." "As far as we can see, nobody
02:12:14speaks against Öcalan anyway, that is, nobody
02:12:17says anything. Demirtaş, I mean, what else can
02:12:20the man do in the meantime, we need to say that too, I think he is being treated unfairly, what else
02:12:24can he do, of course. That is, he said he wouldn't
02:12:28make political statements, he said he supports the process, etc., etc.
02:12:31but they cannot solve the meaning
02:12:34of the silence of the voters, especially the Kurdish voters,
02:12:37and as far as I can see,
02:12:41without taking a guarantee..." they are not taking a path, and
02:12:44I think the most important factor
02:12:46that will affect the timing and outcome of the upcoming elections is this. Yes, dear
02:12:50viewers, let me remind you of this as a factual point, everyone is
02:12:54free to comment, that is, when we host a party
02:12:57deputy or a group chairman periodically,
02:13:00especially when there is very little
02:13:04bir süre kala, şöyle bir iki hafta ya da bir ay ya da bir iki ay
02:13:08any plan of the government that aims for Erdoğan's re-candidacy
02:13:11and is brought forward by a week or two or a month or two,
02:13:15they make statements that they will not support such a thing.
02:13:18Let me state these, but of course, politics
02:13:21is this, you never know what
02:13:24will happen. What I'm saying is the government's perspective,
02:13:28otherwise, I cannot say that it binds the party, it's not my place,
02:13:31no, I'm not saying it for you, don't misunderstand me, I'm just
02:13:35reminding this in general, because the party members also
02:13:38naturally, once in a while, we are talked about in environments where we are not present.
02:13:42We are a television channel that can invite party deputies to our broadcasts
02:13:46at certain intervals. Therefore,
02:13:49I want to express their views they conveyed in our invitations
02:13:52here, so that it contributes to forming your opinion.
02:13:56Can I make one more factual point there?
02:13:59That is, they also have legitimate criticisms here.
02:14:02Up until now, many politicians
02:14:06who accused us of supporting the AKP are now
02:14:09with the AKP. They say, 'We
02:14:12are still where we were.' Let me also say this
02:14:15by the way, this is also the case in the IBB assembly,
02:14:19let me specifically say that, that is, contrary
02:14:22to what is thought in the IBB assembly,
02:14:26I think the most consistent group
02:14:29is the party group, it's very important, let me tell you, but
02:14:32this has been discussed in recent weeks, hasn't it? From Üsküdar onwards,
02:14:36can a situation be created in the IBB assembly where
02:14:39the party assembly members there are also persuaded in another way,
02:14:42and the IBB can be taken over? It is being discussed. You say
02:14:46that the situation is not like that, that is, we already see that, so far,
02:14:50so far, under the name of urban rent,
02:14:54that is, what everyone says, because even saying this can be a crime, that's why I said it in inverted
02:14:58commas, selected people, they went, they are going, they
02:15:01will go, etc. I have seen others leave, but I have not seen any of them
02:15:05leave. That's why I said it in my previous segment when talking about the parliament's arithmetic,
02:15:09that is, instead of the party, we should look at the number of CHP.
02:15:25We saw positions already, they are saying, I was offered a vice presidency, I went.
02:15:28We saw them being transferred like that, but I
02:15:32haven't seen any other stance
02:15:35from these friends in the assembly, I want to say that specifically.
02:15:39Okay, now in the last segment we turned to Figen Çalıkuşu,
02:15:43but we are also curious about Figen Hanım's thoughts
02:15:46on the topic we discussed. Figen Hanım, what
02:15:49do you say about Nuray Babacan's article, based on the
02:15:52backstage information she conveyed? The information she
02:15:55announced to the public there, that is, regarding what the AKP will do in the
02:15:59coming period. Because you said in your previous comment
02:16:02that if
02:16:05the parliament convenes tomorrow, next month, and a majority
02:16:08is secured as the AKP wishes, and that early
02:16:11election date is set now, and the decision is made now and the date is announced,
02:16:14this time, what Turkey will experience until that date
02:16:18is important, you said. Nuray Babacan's article also contains
02:16:21some clues about this. Do you also agree?
02:16:29Or rather, how can the opposition, the new party,
02:16:33reverse that process? Yes, Mr. Gökmen, we
02:16:36already see this in the municipal councils.
02:16:39Beyond that, we also see
02:16:42transfers of deputies. They are doing
02:16:45what they said, that is, whether an election decision is made
02:16:48or not, they are doing it as a preparation.
02:16:51As a result, I doubt this will change.
02:16:54Even if an election decision is not made in this process,
02:16:58we will see these transitions,
02:17:01we will see these bargains. Unfortunately, here,
02:17:05that is, even the AKP voters need to think.
02:17:08The fact that politics disregards the voters
02:17:12and ignores the voters' votes is very dangerous. That is, here
02:17:15there is a ballot box, but it is an insufficient ballot box.
02:17:19In that case, we need to accept that
02:17:22electoral democracy has been abandoned. That is, elections no longer
02:17:25have any meaning. If an early election decision is made,
02:17:29even if it is not made, we will see
02:17:31these in the period leading up to the election, we will see
02:17:34these bargains. This is unfortunately a very unpleasant situation,
02:17:38that is, it is very problematic both in terms of the voters
02:17:41and in terms of the erosion of democracy, because
02:17:44what we expect from democracy is not just the
02:17:48ballot box, but democracy has lost significant
02:17:52ground and has eroded
02:17:55in terms of the point the system has reached with its institutions and the functioning of the regime.
02:17:58We see that this is becoming even more intensified.
02:18:01Of course, the other question you asked is important:
02:18:05What can be done, what can be done to reverse this? At
02:18:09this point, a lot of work falls
02:18:12on the opposition. Let me also say this, that is, we always talk about 50 + 1.
02:18:16It was said today that the election
02:18:19will be in 2028 by the advisor and so on, but
02:18:22none of these are certain.
02:18:25You might see a constitutional package come before the election,
02:18:29certain bargains might necessitate this.
02:18:33Here, a draft constitution that no one can
02:18:37say no to might come. We shouldn't overlook
02:18:40that either, because this work has been going on for a long time, as you know,
02:18:44and in fact, the AKP is doing this work alone.
02:18:48That is, its other partner is not participating.
02:18:51It has formed a commission, and that
02:18:54commission, if I'm not mistaken... Under Yazıcı's presidency, that commission
02:18:57has almost completed it, because we see its monthly reports in the form of
02:19:01small news from time to time. This is also
02:19:04important, let's not forget this detail. If another form comes
02:19:07that moves away from 50 + 1, or if they bring
02:19:11a system that does not include separation of powers but is nominally
02:19:14a parliamentary regime, such a proposal might also come.
02:19:18We shouldn't ignore these either. I
02:19:21consider it a possibility, because there is a very serious deadlock.
02:19:2550 + 1 will challenge very seriously.
02:19:29There are experiences gained from the six-party
02:19:32table. The partners and components of the six-party
02:19:36table, of course, in the sense you are talking about
02:19:38about this 5%, the position that the conservative
02:19:42wing will take is important, but it is certain
02:19:45that there is also a resentment in the six-party table in the later
02:19:48developing process. That is, the CHP and now, of course, the group that
02:19:51has left, how their stance towards the new party will be clarified,
02:19:55I don't know. If they make significant contributions to the constitutional amendment
02:19:58and see changes that will satisfy them,
02:20:02they might also act together. I want to include this.
02:20:06What have we seen in these elections so far? In general,
02:20:09despite the fact that people have very serious economic
02:20:13problems, which by the way have become
02:20:16increasingly aggravated, what was highlighted was
02:20:20identity and belonging politics, that is, differentiations
02:20:24based on cultural identities, religious and ethnic identities,
02:20:27existential problems, security problems, etc. Now we also see examples of these.
02:20:31The latest operation is also related to this.
02:20:35As was said earlier, in unrelated accounts,
02:20:39such measures were
02:20:42taken. For example, a journalist, Tuğba Tekerek, was arrested,
02:20:46wasn't she? Here, we saw the same
02:20:49attitude of consolidating a differentiation through identity politics
02:20:52again. So, there is a need
02:20:55for a discourse that will shake this, that is, a discourse
02:20:58that will shake identity politics and be inclusive.
02:21:02The opposition needs to do this collectively.
02:21:05Yes, the pressure is very high. "People might be hesitant
02:21:09to speak up in this sense, but politicians are more
02:21:13comfortable in this regard, at least they have immunity in this sense.
02:21:16In terms of the new party, yes, they will struggle,
02:21:19that is, these municipalities will probably also work
02:21:23on the IBB, and work will continue
02:21:27on other metropolitan municipalities they haven't taken.
02:21:30I don't think they will stop, and
02:21:34we might also see other parties that might change their position
02:21:38in connection with this constitutional amendment." It was said for the party, but
02:21:41I really don't know. If the election is to be postponed to 2028,
02:21:45there is a huge 2027 ahead of us, we shouldn't dismiss this.
02:21:49Of course, they will come with social aids,
02:21:52that is, to prevent the voters from changing their preference
02:21:56in times of economic hardship,
02:21:59they will take measures. At this point,
02:22:02the opposition needs to increase the voters' trust.
02:22:05Unfortunately, these
02:22:09lawsuits are a heavy, wearing process, but their internal
02:22:12conflicts are another problem. The fact that even
02:22:16the name of a new party has been discussed for a long time
02:22:19is really wearing. It might be considered important
02:22:22that it is mentioned a lot, but the fact that there is hesitation
02:22:26even in a party name creates problems, especially
02:22:29I would be concerned about it being left to the Constitutional
02:22:33Court. Personally, I would be concerned. When and how
02:22:37the Constitutional Court will make a decision, in which near
02:22:40future, whether it will create a problem or not, would be a big
02:22:44surprise. This needs to be overcome. That is,
02:22:46the opposition, I won't just talk
02:22:49about the new party, but the opposition bloc
02:22:52needs to take more careful
02:22:56measures against the political power's strategies.
02:22:58Also, these changes in preferences,
02:23:02that is, some of them were forced and under pressure,
02:23:05it happened because of that pressure. These are well-known,
02:23:09that is, we all accept the pressure, but there are also
02:23:13choices that we find to be very
02:23:16Here, the AKP wanted to show this,
02:23:19that is, ultimately, there is a great misconception here.
02:23:22Look, with this great misconception, one who is elected
02:23:26like our side has achieved this in such a problematic environment.
02:23:30They say they are incapacitating the opposition, right? Here,
02:23:33a strategy is being pursued on multiple fronts,
02:23:36that is, both operations and pressures to change preferences
02:23:39and so on. Against all these,
02:23:43very careful measures need to be taken. As I said,
02:23:47from now on, I suppose
02:23:50we will see more identity politics. This great operation is also a
02:23:53sign of this, like its spokesperson. There is a need
02:23:57for another discourse that will shake this.
02:24:00Now, there is a need to see an opposition that has set aside
02:24:03its internal problems and difficulties, but from now on, the conservative wing...
02:24:06"Can there be a discourse that will provide
02:24:10integration both in terms of the CHP and the new party?
02:24:13I mean, when I say conservative opinion, I want to remind you
02:24:17of the six-party table example. Problems were also created
02:24:20in that process. There is a process, a time, to compensate for all these,
02:24:24if it is 2028. But a constitutional
02:24:27amendment might come beforehand. Let's not dismiss this at all,
02:24:30because I don't think it will be done by saying it from the beginning.
02:24:33That is, the AKP's own secret agenda." An agenda
02:24:37that continues without even including its partner
02:24:41tells us that its probability is high.
02:24:44Okay, what is your opinion on this topic? Please share it briefly, and then
02:24:47I will turn to my other guests. That is, if
02:24:51such an early election is decided at an early date
02:24:54right now, if it passes this decision through parliament,
02:24:57after that, will the constitutional amendment agenda
02:25:01be removed from the government's agenda,
02:25:05or no, will its plans related to the constitutional
02:25:09amendment continue, but will it feel more comfortable
02:25:12there? Undoubtedly, it will feel more comfortable,
02:25:15but if a constitutional amendment is made, the election
02:25:19system after the constitutional amendment will also change. That is,
02:25:23I don't know what kind of regulation they will come up with. That's why
02:25:26today's speeches, these comments, undoubtedly Ms. Nuray's
02:25:30comments are valuable, and the information she received is also valuable, but
02:25:33we have seen that the political power, the AKP, has not
02:25:36always done what it said. We have seen that the stated
02:25:40and the actions are different. That's why they are at an important
02:25:44junction point. Perhaps
02:25:47gördüğüm bakın Devlet Bahçeli.
02:25:50what I see is that Devlet Bahçeli insisted on 1 for a very long time,
02:25:53for a very long time. But now we don't hear this from him, and
02:25:57we started hearing about the constitutional amendment from him recently,
02:26:01and yes, there are aspects of the regime that need to be corrected.
02:26:04Now, these are the things being discussed, but the most discussed
02:26:07are the early election debates. If they decide on the constitution,
02:26:11then a different calendar will be implemented after the constitution.
02:26:14Well, again,
02:26:17commenting after seeing the constitution would be healthier
02:26:21for the package to come. But let's not forget that
02:26:24the last framework law was 467, if I'm not mistaken,
02:26:27wasn't it, Mr. Gökmen? They got such a vote.
02:26:30And with the articles they will regulate in the constitution,
02:26:34with these changes in the regime, they might also get over 400 votes
02:26:37in a package that cannot be rejected, for example, if the budget changes,
02:26:41if the mother tongue and education, citizenship definition changes.
02:26:45And then they might even easily bring themselves to a referendum
02:26:48preference as a test. That's why I said
02:26:52earlier about all these things, that is,
02:26:56there is a need for a discourse that will reverse
02:26:59these strategies and that the opposition will be able to make the people's
02:27:02economic preferences a priority, that is, Lenin's saying,
02:27:05"Our greatest friend is inflation." There is a need
02:27:09for a different and inclusive, depolarizing, disruptive discourse
02:27:12on this. That is, it cannot fix the economy.
02:27:16I agree here. To fix it, they need to return to strict law.
02:27:20Structural reforms, Mehmet Şimşek, if I'm not mistaken,
02:27:23it's been over 3 years, and what was his first word, Mr. Gökmen?
02:27:27It was to return to rationality. What is our rationality
02:27:30right now? Is our rationality
02:27:34the collapse of this seven-portfolio company?
02:27:37Is our rationality the medium-term program that keeps falling back?
02:27:41So, the problem is there, it's big. Fixing the economy would be a very temporary
02:27:44bandage. They also see that it won't work.
02:27:48They might also be taking measures to fix this system, this regime,
02:27:51and from here, there might also be a demand
02:27:54to instill trust in the people, that is, yes, the system is changing, the regime is changing, a new
02:27:58constitutional package is coming. Okay,
02:28:02our viewers are also sending us messages like this. First of all,
02:28:06a viewer wrote about this execution. Kenan Birkan says, the sentence is the same,
02:28:10the crime is the same, the person is the same, the citizen of the legal order, the person is the same citizen of the legal order.
02:28:14So why is the execution different? This distinction that emerged
02:28:17in the July 31st Covid law "must have a reasonable
02:28:21and fair justification, our request is very clear, equality and
02:28:24justice," he says. Batı Tunç said,
02:28:27"More economy should be discussed."
02:28:30We are discussing a lot of economy in this program, Mr. Batı. That is, my
02:28:33professor is here, and my other guests are also interested
02:28:37in economy despite it not being their field, and they are conveying their comments
02:28:40to us. But of course, you are right. That is, diesel,
02:28:43stock market, poverty,
02:28:46then sold forests,
02:28:50lands, retired," "the hunger situation of minimum wage earners,
02:28:53unemployment, youth. Our viewer is bringing these up.
02:28:56One of our viewers said
02:28:58that he is also a little angry, but not really at us,
02:29:02but at the opposition. He says, "You say Erdoğan cannot be a candidate,
02:29:06but every evening you run him
02:29:08in surveys as a candidate."
02:29:10"You position Erdoğan as a candidate in surveys and discuss him."
02:29:14Yes, Professor Dumain, he seems to be a little angry at you too, but
02:29:17you are a political scientist. He's angry at YSK, I think."
02:29:21The citizen is angry at YSK, and we are also angry at YSK.
02:29:24That is, if he cannot be a candidate, then the surveys
02:29:28should ask who will win instead of Erdoğan, not
02:29:32who will win against Erdoğan. Either believe his rhetoric or
02:29:35his survey, both cannot happen at the same time. The opposition cannot create
02:29:39a politics without Erdoğan. Here, he is criticizing the opposition.
02:29:42We are acting on the assumption that the existing law is invalid
02:29:46in practice, because that's what's happening. The citizen's reaction is correct,
02:29:50but a program cannot be made
02:29:54by assuming that there is no such situation. You said that, it sounds
02:29:57a bit like a scolding for me, so no, it's not a
02:30:01necessity. Now, just a second,
02:30:04Ms. Figen, a citizen, if I don't read this message completely,
02:30:08he'll attack me. This opposition, he says,
02:30:12cannot create a politics without Erdoğan. For example, this might actually
02:30:16be a criticism that the opposition can take seriously,
02:30:20in the sense of creating a politics that leaves him behind. It constantly defines itself through
02:30:24him, and this invalidates its own argument with its own hands.
02:30:27As a result, there is a serious strategic inconsistency.
02:30:30He did a very good job. Yes, I read it from beginning
02:30:33to end. His name is Voyager Scribe. Then, Bahtisen Beyazyavuz also
02:30:37said something like this: "All comments disregard the people."
02:30:41Don't misunderstand, not your comments, I just conveyed
02:30:44Mehmet Huçum's words, and Şamil Tayyar's
02:30:47and Nuray Babacan's conveyed information.
02:30:50"Based on AKP backstage information, they will do this, they will trick
02:30:54old friends, etc., etc." These comments, he says, are "abstract
02:30:57words that disregard the people, that don't even touch on what reflexes
02:31:01they will show, and that have no chance of coming true,
02:31:04only in line with the wishes of the party elites. If you
02:31:07go among the people and look, you will see that they are waiting with their cards
02:31:11open," he says. They have opened their cards,
02:31:14they are waiting, according to our viewer. There is also a comment from
02:31:18a citizen there about the fund. He took a fund, he asked a question
02:31:22about it, did you see it? I didn't answer it.
02:31:25That is, he took a money market fund from Terra.
02:31:28He also wrote below, he is asking, "What about our fund?"
02:31:32I'll answer it when the time comes, but let his curiosity be satisfied, that is, danger.
02:31:36Is there such a thing as normal conditions? I'm going to tell you
02:31:40that there's a strange situation there. Under normal conditions, money
02:31:43market funds are the most liquid assets, and there shouldn't be any risk there.
02:31:47But here, there's
02:31:50a problem with the TP2 fund that the citizen mentioned, and there's also a
02:31:54legal process there. Normally, reverse repo transactions constitute about
02:31:5765-75% of these.
02:32:01These are government securities. They are backed by government debt securities,
02:32:04and these are assets that can be easily
02:32:08converted into liquid cash. However, in this
02:32:11example, there's a situation where a corporate stock is used as collateral to provide
02:32:14financial support.
02:32:18This is actually contrary to the nature of that instrument.
02:32:22Therefore, an arrest operation has already taken place there.
02:32:26This process seems to be turning into a more legal process.
02:32:29There might be a loss there
02:32:33in proportion to its share, of course, but apart from that, it will be
02:32:37a more guaranteed
02:32:40fund compared to other stock funds, actually. Thank you very much, professor,
02:32:43because we attach great importance to the participation
02:32:46and questions of our citizens. We are broadcasting within such an interaction. Mrs. Pigen,
02:32:49were you going to add something in a sentence just now? I was going to say
02:32:53for this execution package, those who ask are right,
02:32:57of course. I mean, we already talk about it at other times,
02:33:00but as you know,
02:33:05I think it will be addressed in the process. That is, after
02:33:09this framework law, the execution package will also be
02:33:12looked at collectively. This is my expectation. Okay, okay.
02:33:15Fikret Abi, Şamil Tayyar says, "I have a suggestion." He says, "Let's
02:33:19announce the date of the early elections." He says, "Let's make this decision in the parliament
02:33:23now, let's make an early decision
02:33:26for early elections." So, the early election itself
02:33:29is not very early, only a month before the normal election, but he says, "Let's make this decision
02:33:33early." Yes.
02:33:36He says, in that case, stress will decrease,
02:33:39normalization will begin. That is, does he mean peace will come to the country? I don't know what he means,
02:33:42but will it, Fikret Abi?
02:33:45So, Şamil's approach there, as I stated earlier,
02:33:48is to guarantee President Erdoğan's re-candidacy.
02:33:52Currently, the atmosphere in the parliament
02:33:55is suitable. If a process with the party is carried out,
02:33:59and if the party's expectations
02:34:01are met, even if partially, support can be obtained.
02:34:05Independents can be given a guarantee of re-election.
02:34:08And if other parties,
02:34:11such as DEVA and Yeniden Refah parties, are approached and their re-entry
02:34:15into the parliament is guaranteed, then this support will be provided, and
02:34:19an early election decision that will ensure President Erdoğan's
02:34:22re-candidacy will be made now.
02:34:26There is a sense of urgency in this
02:34:29proposal because perhaps next
02:34:33year, when the early election decision is made, the
02:34:36stance of the parties in the parliament might change, the
02:34:40stance of the HDP might change, they might not be able
02:34:43to make an early election decision, they might not be able to find this majority.
02:34:46In that case, Mr. Erdoğan cannot run again. These
02:34:49are statements aimed at eliminating this risk. That is,
02:34:53Mr. President also said that we will overcome the early elections.
02:34:56He is actually reflecting a
02:34:59problem there in that statement."
02:35:08he states. While Mr. Bahçeli says that
02:35:11we have to make some regulations,
02:35:14the lowering of the election threshold may come
02:35:18to the agenda so that the MHP does not face a threshold problem,
02:35:21there is such an approach. However,
02:35:25the government accepting the constitutional amendments
02:35:28that the HDP wants and fulfilling
02:35:31them can gather a very big
02:35:35reaction from the voters. For example,
02:35:38changing the definition of citizenship, that is,
02:35:41removing the word "Turk" or, as the HDP wants,
02:35:45including Kurds as a founding
02:35:48nation in the constitution and accepting
02:35:52Kurdish as the official
02:35:55language of education, these are their expectations
02:35:58as part of Article 42. These are very big decisions. These
02:36:02would be changes that are incompatible with the
02:36:05qualities of the Republic of Turkey founded by Atatürk.
02:36:08A big reaction could really come from the voters,
02:36:12a very big reaction from the public. We need to sound
02:36:15out that side as well. What do the voters say, what does the public say, what does
02:36:19the majority say? Because I reminded you earlier,
02:36:23after the period of 2013-2015,
02:36:25in the 2015 elections,
02:36:28the voters removed the AK Party from being the sole
02:36:31ruling party. They could react like this
02:36:34again. Therefore, it becomes increasingly
02:36:37difficult for them to get the result they expect. What is your
02:36:40opinion on this? So, Şamil, or rather Şamil Tayyar, I apologize,
02:36:44says that if this decision is made now,
02:36:48normalization will occur, stress will decrease, and the country will be in peace
02:36:52until that date. Will it happen? Will it?
02:36:54So, the AK Party will relax, Mr. Erdoğan will relax, the MHP
02:36:58will relax, Bahçeli will relax. Such a relief will emerge,
02:37:02but regarding the new party, Professor Doğan says, "Everyone's
02:37:05peace is their own," Fikret Abi. Of course, that's what I'm saying too,
02:37:09that is, the government, the government's peace will come, but
02:37:12there will be no change in its attitude towards the opposition.
02:37:16Many operations are being carried out
02:37:19against the new party, including pressure to change its name.
02:37:23Journalists are being arrested, scientists
02:37:26are being arrested, municipal council
02:37:30members are being arrested, mayors are being arrested. All
02:37:33of these will continue, but the ruling
02:37:37side will be at ease, it will relax, because justice
02:37:40will be finalized. That is, the tension that Şamil mentioned
02:37:43will disappear only on the side of. This tension will disappear,
02:37:47but the government's pressure on the opposition,
02:37:50especially on the new party, will continue. We see this every
02:37:54day with a new initiative.
02:37:57Their pressure on municipalities, their attempts to gain a majority in municipal councils,
02:38:01to transfer municipal council members, or to win the election for deputy mayor
02:38:05by arresting them will continue. What could happen
02:38:09economically? I know
02:38:12this: "When elections approach, this government tends to
02:38:16give wage increases to public employees,
02:38:19civil servants, and pensioners, and it creates an expectation
02:38:23that these increases are being made in exchange for votes
02:38:25in the election. This also reflects
02:38:29in the ballot box, which is true. So,
02:38:33if this is to happen next year, a significant wage
02:38:36increase could be provided at the beginning of the year.
02:38:39However, unless the inflation problem
02:38:43is solved, we have already seen that those increases melt
02:38:46away within a month or two in previous years. The same thing
02:38:50would happen again," we can say, Gökmen. So,
02:38:53Professor Murat, Fikret Abi says, "Peace will come, but it will come
02:38:57to them." As he says in the movie, "Don't say that about our Sivas, our Sivas is growing,
02:39:01growing for you?" That is, peace is coming, but for
02:39:04us or for whom? I don't know how peace happens,
02:39:07but what do you say about these plans?
02:39:10We are also curious about whether the government will actually
02:39:13get what it wants in this regard. That is, if it gets this decision made
02:39:17early by the parliament and if
02:39:20the early election date is announced in April 2028,
02:39:24and if Erdoğan's re-candidacy is guaranteed,
02:39:27will things change in his subsequent steps,
02:39:31whether it's about the HDP, the process, or the economy?
02:39:34Will he feel more comfortable, or will something else happen? Is it
02:39:38possible to make such projections, in your opinion? So, there,
02:39:42of course, by reading the public, by reading public opinion,
02:39:45perhaps he might prefer not to take some steps
02:39:48he should take in that process if he sees a big reaction against him.
02:39:52But we should not forget that there is
02:39:56also a Kurdish vote he can win from his side.
02:40:00Therefore, he will also go to the polls, and he will make a cost-benefit analysis
02:40:03there. That move didn't help him much
02:40:07in the past. He will see if he can turn it in his favor. He is already
02:40:10gauging the market with polls, but as I said,
02:40:14unfortunately, my expectation there is not
02:40:17at all such
02:40:20an alarming expectation. Perhaps, we saw
02:40:24between the June-November elections how the elections
02:40:27suddenly turned around, unfortunately,
02:40:30by increasing pressure
02:40:33on society, by making the opposition
02:40:36unable to do its
02:40:39job, I think
02:40:42it will progress and try to secure
02:40:45the election. Because otherwise,
02:40:47it doesn't seem very possible to turn this around. It's not something
02:40:50that can be done by gaining ground with small moves here and there.
02:40:54As we just said, people don't vote with instructions
02:40:57from above, and they can vote very contrary to the instructions
02:41:00from above. That is, their party can be on the other side, and the voters can be on the other
02:41:03side. The most important party here
02:41:07is the anti-Erdoğan party or Erdoğan's supporters.
02:41:10That is, society is polarized in this way. No matter how much you try
02:41:14to divide
02:41:21it turns into a tiny party, and as we approach the elections,
02:41:24we can even see it disappear.
02:41:27In such an environment, the tactics of creating a CHP, creating
02:41:31new whatever, dividing them like this, don't work. For
02:41:35example, in Nuray Babacan's article, there was a
02:41:38problem: dividing the conservative bloc
02:41:40by supporting it doesn't work much, because
02:41:44they are not alternatives to each other. They vote for their own party,
02:41:48and on the other side, they vote for the presidential candidate, as in the past.
02:41:52To do this, for example, the name of the CHP is never mentioned. They have to support the CHP.
02:41:55Because the alternative to the CHP taking votes from the new party
02:41:59means the disappearance of the CHP. The CHP will come out
02:42:03with a completely anti-new party propaganda. They need to support
02:42:07the CHP even though its name is not mentioned. The main problem here
02:42:11is that none of these are as strong
02:42:14as the anti-Erdoğan sentiment.
02:42:17A move that will change this, a move that will break
02:42:20this, can only be achieved by increasing prosperity in the economy.
02:42:22That is, Turkey needs to open a new path. But this is not
02:42:26possible under current conditions. That's
02:42:29why I keep returning to the same point.
02:42:33New moves may come that will make it impossible
02:42:36or difficult for the opposition to do its job.
02:42:39Istanbul Municipality is one of them, a very important stage,
02:42:43by the way. But it can also drag on. That is,
02:42:46we can also see other names being removed from politics,
02:42:49being passive. For example, yes.
02:42:53Now, I will also take Professor Doğan's
02:42:56comment on this
02:42:57but
02:43:00let me move forward by asking this
02:43:03and take his comment in that way. If the government really
02:43:07makes such an early decision on early elections and puts it in its pocket,
02:43:11then will it be a favorable situation for large
02:43:14segments of the public, public opinion,
02:43:18I don't know, different
02:43:21segments, or will there be
02:43:24normalization, etc.? Or will the government
02:43:27continue to do what it knows
02:43:30in terms of repressive policies, operations,
02:43:34and not complying with the decisions of the Constitutional Court,
02:43:37not releasing those inside? What do you say, professor? Now, people
02:43:40are complaining, of course, they are also writing
02:43:44on social media and so on. What do they say? They react, they say,
02:43:48"Don't talk about that, talk about this, this is important, that is important."
02:43:51They are right, they are right, but they are wrong
02:43:54on this point, because will there be an early election or
02:43:58not? Now, this is actually not a very important issue.
02:44:02I am generally an optimistic person and I believe that there will be
02:44:06a significant transformation in Turkey in the near future. Because
02:44:09Erdoğan, the current regime, the AKP
02:44:12government, its current support, its social
02:44:16base, still has a significant social base.
02:44:19But the main reason for this is that it is a party
02:44:22state. That is, the system we live in
02:44:26is a party state. The elements of this
02:44:29party state, its civil servants,
02:44:32those who serve it, the people
02:44:36involved in its economic distribution system, constitute a significant
02:44:39portion of the population. This is not like in old Turkey.
02:44:43This government has tied a significant
02:44:46portion of the population to itself.
02:44:49Therefore, you cannot lower the AKP's social base,
02:44:53its vote depot, below a certain point. And even,
02:44:56for example, there are groups who feel compelled
02:45:00to continue with the AKP politically, primarily the elements
02:45:03of the People's Alliance, and besides them, when you consider those who participate
02:45:07in these operations with the AKP and so on,
02:45:11since they have to continue with the AKP, people ask, if there are so many
02:45:15crises, if there is so much reaction from the public,
02:45:18why can this AKP government still
02:45:21get so many votes, even if they have decreased? It's because
02:45:25those people are compelled to the government
02:45:27and even want it to continue. This is a very powerful lobby. Let's put that aside for now.
02:45:31Secondly, early elections or not, it has no
02:45:34importance for the election. Or the great
02:45:38importance of the election may not be in the next election. We need
02:45:41to admit that this regime is a rotten
02:45:45regime. There is a very serious social reaction to this regime.
02:45:48It cannot gain legitimacy, both in terms of international
02:45:52relations. Look, today, America approved 45 F35s to Saudi
02:45:56Arabia. We are a NATO country, but it cannot give us. It is struggling
02:45:59greatly. We will talk about it later. He will meet with Trump and so on. Why?
02:46:03There is a legitimacy problem because we are giving it to him. That is international diplomacy there. The country
02:46:07also has very serious problems, and the
02:46:10anti-Erdoğan side is much larger. But we need
02:46:14to say this clearly: I am hopeful for the future.
02:46:17Erdoğan no longer has a great following among the oppressed,
02:46:20among the working class, among the middle classes, among tradesmen.
02:46:24Therefore, the future will be against the pillars
02:46:28of this regime. Let me say that. But
02:46:31when it comes to the upcoming elections, early or
02:46:35not, we all see it in some way. We
02:46:39faced it in the Üsküdar municipal elections. That is, people,
02:46:43council members, people who will vote were detained,
02:46:46the municipality was isolated,
02:46:50surrounded, people were arrested. That is,
02:46:53transfers of people who would vote for him took place,
02:46:56or they were threatened with arrest
02:46:59in an environment. Now, what does this show us? It shows us this:
02:47:02the continuation of the operation against the new party, the CHP, and
02:47:06the new party. What is this? You had
02:47:09a very serious presidential candidate, his diploma was cancelled,
02:47:13he was arrested, he is currently inside. Now, look,
02:47:16we are going to elections in such an environment. What else happened? A completely
02:47:20different administration was brought to the main opposition party, it was interfered with,
02:47:24that party was actually closed down. We put that aside too.
02:47:28The diploma was cancelled. The opposition had a very serious local election success,
02:47:31they had councils, they had municipalities. What is
02:47:35happening now? Council presidents, mayors
02:47:38are being arrested. And so on, there is an operation.
02:47:42We say immunities can be lifted. Now, which election are we
02:47:45talking about? That is, because we are talking about
02:47:48an election held under these conditions, there is a new party
02:47:52standing in the middle in an election held in such
02:47:55an environment. But the new party is alone. Now, we are
02:47:59writing on social media here, we are talking here, but now, regarding the new
02:48:02party, Özgür Özel has risen as a leader
02:48:05outside the new party. What are all the other
02:48:09anti-Erdoğan parties or democratic mass organizations,
02:48:13opinion leaders, journalists doing,
02:48:16Gökmen Bey? They are
02:48:18doing
02:48:21only one thing: giving advice to Özgür Özel.
02:48:24Are they doing anything else? There are many
02:48:27really wants. Darling, democratic, legitimate.
02:48:30Are these channels being used? Are our citizens using
02:48:34them? Is our public using them? Are other democratic mass organizations
02:48:37using them? There is an organization called DISK, for example, isn't there? A workers'
02:48:41union, or organizations like that.
02:48:44That is, today, there is very serious pressure.
02:48:48An incredible operation has been carried out on the main opposition party.
02:48:51But from journalists, opinion leaders, intellectuals,
02:48:54democratic mass organizations, and other political
02:48:57parties, no one is doing anything
02:49:00other than telling Özgür Özel what to do. Therefore, one needs to understand
02:49:04Özgür Özel at some point. Therefore, there is criticism from the left,
02:49:08and criticism from the right, from nationalists. Because the anti-Erdoğan
02:49:11sentiment in this society is also a monolithic
02:49:14bloc. That is, there are nationalists,
02:49:17there are social democrats, there are socialists. But everyone
02:49:21says that until now, the CHP pursued a right-wing, conservative
02:49:25policy to persuade them. Those who criticize from the left say
02:49:29that it seems there was no support for it, let's oppose from the left.
02:49:32They say, "You are collaborating with the Kurds, you are acting with them."
02:49:36Nationalists are acting from there. But what is Özgür Özel trying to do?
02:49:40The anti-Erdoğan supporters who are doing nothing themselves,
02:49:43those who are doing nothing. Do we have immunity
02:49:46or something? No,
02:49:50but you are also a citizen. Now, Özgür Özel's
02:49:53difficulty is there. That is, he has to satisfy all these people
02:49:57who are doing nothing and giving him advice, as a politician, of course.
02:50:01But under what conditions? We will go to a commercial break. I'm finishing.
02:50:04Under what conditions does he have to satisfy
02:50:08them? He has to satisfy them while
03:00:17I was trying to say this, uh, against
03:00:20the main opposition party, from absolute Butland to diploma cancellation,
03:00:24up to, uh, operations in municipalities, a very serious operation
03:00:27is underway, uh, and this will of course be reflected in the elections, whether
03:00:30there is an early election or not. "In this environment,
03:00:34in such an environment, in an environment where such an operation is ongoing,
03:00:38elections will be held, but in the medium term, the opposition needs
03:00:40to stand firm, to pull itself together, not to be demoralized,
03:00:44it is important for the opposition to stand with a will to democratize
03:00:47the regime in Turkey in the medium term,
03:00:50not like 'I'm sulking', if this doesn't happen, that is, in this
03:00:54climate, in a place where there is a single-party rule, under these conditions,
03:00:58the main opposition party trying to stand on its feet and left alone,
03:01:01because currently." As I said before, from intellectuals
03:01:05to university professors, from democratic mass organizations to other opposition
03:01:09political parties, they are nowhere to be seen, therefore
03:01:13the new party is trying to do something, and the operation is
03:01:16being carried out against it, apart from that, the government of course has other games
03:01:20as you reflected, therefore we should not be too pessimistic,
03:01:24uh, in the medium term, there are very serious grounds to be hopeful,
03:01:27but this election is not a life-and-death election for
03:01:31Turkey, such a thing.
03:01:45how the next election will turn out will not determine
03:02:02right. Yes, cried.
03:02:04A statement came from the Presidential Candidate Office regarding this issue,
03:02:07friends, its visual is at 6, I would like
03:02:10you to give me visual number 6, please.
03:02:14What happened during the hearing of the IMM case?
03:02:18The message from the Presidential Candidate Office shares it as follows: Tears
03:02:22on the stand. Tears on the stand.
03:02:25For months, I've been saying the same thing about
03:02:28the IMM investigation. Spouses, children, were targeted
03:02:31and held hostage, I said that confession came with family torture.
03:02:35A live example of this happened yesterday on the stand in court. What he
03:02:39meant by yesterday happened the day before.
03:02:42It was thrown yesterday because of this. The ağa, who was subjected to the ugly
03:02:46accusations of a 30-year family friend.
03:02:50Our general manager Ali Sukas asked you this: Would you have given this statement if your
03:02:53son hadn't been arrested? The ağa, who was subjected to the ugly accusations
03:02:57of a 30-year family friend, general manager Ali Sukas asked
03:03:01you this: Would you have given this statement if your son hadn't been arrested?
03:03:04This question made the defendant on the stand cry. Tears
03:03:07flowed. The defendant on the stand, over 60 years old,
03:03:11while wiping his tears with his friend's
03:03:13question, could only say, "I don't want to answer this
03:03:17question." This question made the defendant
03:03:20on the stand cry, tears flowed, the defendant
03:03:24on the stand, over 60 years old, while wiping his tears with his friend's
03:03:28question, could only say, "I don't want to answer this
03:03:31question." These sighs will surely have a price, this
03:03:34injustice will surely have a consequence in a fair trial. Mr. İsmail,
03:03:38what exactly happened there, what was the incident? So now the incident
03:03:41is this, the person who gave this statement, Mengir,
03:03:44uh, his son.
03:03:47His son-in-law Dinçer Kantar is also arrested in this file from the beginning.
03:03:50The claim is that,
03:03:53uh, they have 500 million lira worth of receivables,
03:03:57and to get this, they are released by giving an effective
03:04:01repentance statement that they transferred their 50 million lira worth of real estate
03:04:04at low prices on paper. Now Ali Sukas, of course,
03:04:08asked this in court, "Did I ask you for any benefit?"
03:04:11He said no. That is, he
03:04:14asked again about the accuracy of these matters, "Absolutely, such things did not
03:04:18happen," he said, and finally he asked
03:04:21this question: "If your son had not been arrested, would
03:04:24you have given such a statement?" The man couldn't bear it, he cried
03:04:28on the stand and said, "I don't want to answer this question."
03:04:31Now,
03:04:33what the esteemed president
03:04:35wrote is actually this incident. Now these things are happening
03:04:39before our eyes. Look, these things are happening
03:04:42every day. What lies beneath his
03:04:46crying? What lies beneath his crying is this: he has a friend,
03:04:50Ali Bey, a very close family
03:04:52friend,
03:04:54and it's completely the outward manifestation of the injustice he did
03:04:58in the past, that is, because Ali Sukas's
03:05:01accusations against him are one of
03:05:05the biggest ones, and many people gave such
03:05:08statements against Ali Sukas in the Ağaç Ağşiya
03:05:12file, and almost all of them in their statements
03:05:15given in court. They
03:05:18retracted,
03:05:20and this was the last link in that chain, but for the first time, I witnessed
03:05:23someone crying on the stand with an emotional
03:05:27release, let me put it that way, "I don't want to answer
03:05:31this question," yes, "I don't want to answer," because the question is very clear:
03:05:34"If your son hadn't been arrested, would you have given such a statement?" No, look, this has
03:05:38happened many times, Murat Kapke, you know
03:05:42about this, Murat Kapke's place in the advertising
03:05:45file, in the Media advertising file.
03:05:48One of the most important and upon which the indictment was built,
03:05:52one of the effective repenters, Murat Kapke, clearly said, "When I was taken
03:05:55in, I was informed that my wife
03:05:58was also in custody, and I was forced to give such a statement."
03:06:02These are things that were openly expressed in court. Look, yesterday,
03:06:06Murat Ongun, when the last
03:06:09statements were finished, by the way, let me also say this, in the evening,
03:06:11uh, today it was around
03:06:147 o'clock, uh, yesterday it finished a little
03:06:17early, uh, so let's say these things so that
03:06:21tomorrow or the day after they don't say we didn't say it. Muraton took the floor
03:06:24specifically and used a sentence like this: "This evening," he
03:06:28said, "Mr. President, you bring everyone
03:06:31here,
03:06:33you ask these people, especially those who give effective repentance
03:06:36statements, first, 'Do you repeat your statements?'
03:06:40'Yes, I repeat my statements.' 'Do you stand by your words?' 'I stand by
03:06:44them.' What happens 5 minutes later?
03:06:48Upon cross-examination, it is understood that
03:06:52almost all of these people, look, with one or two
03:06:55exceptions,
03:06:58uh, from what I understand
03:07:00from their statements,
03:07:03they think they will be arrested at any moment if they retract,
03:07:07that's why I think they are.
03:07:105 minutes later, upon cross-examination, 'No, I didn't actually see such a
03:07:13thing, I said what I heard, I told what I heard,' we
03:07:17witness them giving statements like this, 'Who will protect
03:07:21our rights, our law?' he asked very clearly, because the same thing happened
03:07:25yesterday, look, an effective repentant named Kabil Taşçı came out.
03:07:29"He had also given a statement in the same way, about
03:07:32bribery and so on, mixing with tenders,
03:07:35'Am I involved in such a thing?' he said, 'Did you see such a thing?'
03:07:39'No, I didn't see it,' he finally said, 'I have a close friend named Vedat,
03:07:42I heard it from Vedat,' he gave such a statement finally, look, all of these are
03:07:46in the records, we constantly come here, we
03:07:49explain these things, that this file is not like this,
03:07:53that there is no evidence in this file, that there is nothing
03:07:56except for effective repentance statements
03:07:59in this file." We are saying there is nothing, look, we are saying
03:08:02it many times, yesterday, for example, uh,
03:08:06again, uh, another friend came
03:08:09to the stand, one of the effective repenters had given a statement
03:08:12against him, he shouted and explained, "I went to a man in the tender
03:08:16entitlement unit, had the document signed and
03:08:19left," whereas the man in his effective repentance statement said,
03:08:23"They were arranging the tenders among themselves," the child rebelled,
03:08:26that is, "In my life, I only once,
03:08:30how did I sit down and tell my secrets to a person I saw
03:08:34only once, like this and that and so on?" It's always the same story, always the same
03:08:38things, so
03:08:40that emotional outburst is now the final point of the matter.
03:08:44What should normally happen is that you should take
03:08:48legal action against all those who give
03:08:51such statements at the end of the statement, but, uh-huh, that is, not to intimidate
03:08:55others, but you will take legal action, you will accuse them of abuse
03:08:58of rights, or you will say that there
03:09:02is no proper indictment here, and in this file, we
03:09:05first of all need to immediately end these
03:09:08arrests, you need to say this, but this is stubbornly
03:09:12not being said. Look, at the end of the last session,
03:09:15uh, during the monthly detention review, the prosecution,
03:09:18it's like a joke, requested the continuation of everyone's
03:09:21detention, look, everyone's. Two people were released, the prosecution even
03:09:25objected to that. So actually, the situation has reached
03:09:29this point: "There is no trial here, there is no
03:09:32judicial activity here, there is stubbornness here,
03:09:36there is stubbornness here, we have locked
03:09:38you up here, and we will not release you
03:09:42until we get a result from here," such a subtext
03:09:45is being given to people and to society, whereas
03:09:48this is an unacceptable
03:09:51situation in any way. Look, for example,
03:09:55I just explained that hearings go on until midnight here and so
03:09:59on and so on." We explain how much the effective repentance
03:10:03statements have been retracted, we explain,
03:10:06uh, even the simplest statements, look, that is,
03:10:10the situation, Mustafa Akın's situation, look, there are situations of those
03:10:13who have only one act of accusation, did something like this happen,
03:10:17İsmail Hüsnu Yüksel Tunar, yes, he says, "Do you know me?"
03:10:21Yes, a very funny incident, Dinçer Kantar says, "No,"
03:10:24his son-in-law Hüsnu Yükseltünar then says,
03:10:28"You said you delivered the money."
03:10:30He says, "Yes, this is the son-in-law of the crying person," for example,
03:10:33he gave such a statement. He asks,
03:10:36"Do you know me?" "No, I don't know you,"
03:10:39he says, "Don't you know me?" "I don't know you, who am I,
03:10:43I am the person you said you gave money to," he says. Now this,
03:10:47look, sometimes when we tell
03:10:50these things here, I think we are telling parables, odes,
03:10:54like legends, mythology, but these are real, these are happening.
03:10:58For example, I say in my police statement or my prosecutor's
03:11:01statement, etc., in a way that will enter the indictment, I say
03:11:05I gave money to İsmail Emre Telci. Yes.
03:11:08Then I meet İsmail Emre Telci in the courtroom. İsmail
03:11:12Emre Telci says to me, "Gökmen, do you know me?" I say, "I don't
03:11:16know you, İsmail." "Then," he says, "why did you give me
03:11:19money?" He says, "I am the person you claim to have given money to."
03:11:22But look, these scenes are happening almost every
03:11:25day. Look, they are happening every day. And
03:11:29what was the peak of this? It was Ertan Yıldız's statement.
03:11:33In Ertan Yıldız's statement, they cut off Fatih Keleş's lawyers'
03:11:36third question. Yes. They pulled him out of there.
03:11:40Look. This trial, if
03:11:43there is really a trial. Yes. There are certain things
03:11:46that need to be done for it to really happen. One,
03:11:49detentions must be ended immediately. Two,
03:11:52Ekrem İmamoğlu's defense must be taken. His day and
03:11:56time must be determined and a reasonable time must be given. Why?
03:12:00Not one day, two days, not too much, Ekrem Bey doesn't
03:12:03want 20 days, doesn't want 10 days, 4-5 days
03:12:06is enough, three, some
03:12:09interrogations were cut short, some interrogations
03:12:12were cut short, the cross-examinations of those
03:12:16we call effective perjurers, effective repenters, must be
03:12:18completed, they must be brought back, the question and answer
03:12:22part must be completed, even if it's just formally,
03:12:26these must be done, look, I don't see any trial
03:12:30in progress even if these are done, I understand, because
03:12:33why? I'll say my last point, when that interrogation
03:12:36was cut short, what did the president say? "You will make
03:12:39it a ground for appeal." Look, we will never forget this.
03:12:43When does a ground for appeal arise? If a decision is made
03:12:47against you, then you appeal the file.
03:12:49So a decision has been made
03:12:52against you. Do you understand? That's the point here,
03:12:55so if your opinion is wrong, then the president should correct it. Yes, no,
03:12:59no, that is, you are drawing such an assumption from this word, of course,
03:13:03if he said, "I said it by mistake, it just came out of my mouth," but
03:13:06these, this sentence is not a sentence
03:13:09that can even accidentally come out of one's mouth, I would like
03:13:12to specifically note this. Well, sir, uh, former MASAK
03:13:16Vice President Ramazan Başak is also our guest in this segment
03:13:20via remote connection. Welcome, Mr. Ramazan. Thank you,
03:13:23Mr. Gökmen. Greetings to our guests, hello there. Thank
03:13:27you very much, uh, Mr. Ramazan,
03:13:30there's a media outlet called Bloomberg, it said that this is
03:13:33like a 20 billion dollar thing, that is, that
03:13:36explosion in funds, the bubble burst, the system
03:13:39collapsed and so on, that is, a 20 billion dollar
03:13:43thing is being talked about, a story is being talked about, it's not small. Now,
03:13:46there's a part of this business like "bir evim, katılım evim" (my house, participation house),
03:13:50that's the companies part, there's the holding
03:13:53that houses them uh, doing something,
03:13:57failing, and then this
03:14:00time there's the stock market crash, some funds
03:14:03and so on doing something, what
03:14:07is it, Tera, Pusula, Tera, Tera ile
03:14:09Pusula, Destek, uh, yes.
03:14:13We can say their names, right? It's getting involved in many places,
03:14:16after that.
03:14:20news
03:14:23we can say. Holding CEO Emre Tezmen also said,
03:14:27"I would like to state here openly that my respect, love, and
03:14:31faith in our President and his team who work day and night for our country's
03:14:34independence are endless. In line with
03:14:37the national vision represented by our President, we will resolutely
03:14:41maintain our local and national stance in every platform and at every level
03:14:44of responsibility for our country's needs, not just in the financial
03:14:47sector."
03:14:50Uh, professor, you are a financial crimes expert, that is, former MASAK
03:14:53vice president. What happened here, what
03:14:56triggered it, where were mistakes made, where was there
03:14:59negligence? Now, uh, Mr.
03:15:02Gökmen, this incident, uh,
03:15:05when you consider that the capital market board was established in 1981,
03:15:09it is the most destructive,
03:15:12most trust-eroding, and most investor-suffering
03:15:15event in the 45-year history of the capital market.
03:15:19Let's add a fourth one: it is the biggest
03:15:23event where these crimes were committed knowingly,
03:15:26right before the authority's eyes,
03:15:29leading to this destruction, this loss
03:15:33of trust, and hundreds of thousands of
03:15:36investors being victimized. Let's first
03:15:40clearly state this. Well,
03:15:44how did we get to this point? Unfortunately,
03:15:47we got to this point because some
03:15:51profit-motivated networks or
03:15:54uh, ill-intentioned
03:15:57people engaged in certain market manipulation
03:16:00activities in certain stocks, leading
03:16:03to an abnormal surge in the prices
03:16:07of those shares. Among these
03:16:10are the Tera and Pusula groups, which are the subject
03:16:14of today's question, as well as groups related to
03:16:17Destek or Hedef, and other groups will emerge,
03:16:20because currently the investigation, as
03:16:24we see, will expand. Basically, the main
03:16:28reason for today's destruction is the abnormal
03:16:32increase in the value of these shares by 100, 200, 300,
03:16:35or 400 times through some dubious
03:16:38transactions, detached from their real value.
03:16:41Now, in these stocks, when this process
03:16:44of fraud resulted
03:16:47in abnormal value
03:16:50increases, these were transferred to funds, that is,
03:16:53to investment funds. First, they were taken into
03:16:57closed investment funds,
03:17:00these shares were exchanged mutually, that is,
03:17:03in illiquid shares, mostly with low free float rates, and
03:17:07in shares that were thought to be easily inflated
03:17:10and manipulated. In these closed
03:17:13funds, their values were abnormally inflated through dubious
03:17:17transactions. Then these were opened
03:17:20to investors on Tefas, opened to investors.
03:17:23Naturally, investors were drawn to these investment
03:17:27funds, which had reached such high values and had increased
03:17:30so much, with the influence of social media and certain
03:17:34guidance. With investors
03:17:37turning to these, a second fuel
03:17:40was, in a sense, filled into the tanks
03:17:44of these people. With these incoming
03:17:46supports, these manipulative movements, that is, value
03:17:49increases, reached abnormal levels. Now, this
03:17:53uh... "For a very long time,
03:17:57manipulative movements, movements towards market manipulation
03:18:00in this regard were known.
03:18:03That is, we started to express them much earlier.
03:18:07I personally started writing about these from April
03:18:102025 and personally applied in writing to the relevant
03:18:14state institutions to take measures, but
03:18:18these were not taken into consideration. However,
03:18:22at the capital markets congress on November 3, 2025,"
03:18:25Mr. Mehmet Şimşek and the former CMB president already said,
03:18:28"We know about the manipulations in the stock market,
03:18:31we will do what is necessary." As I said, before that,
03:18:34these movements had already started and were well known,
03:18:38known by name, but for some reason, the authority
03:18:41did not take any measures, causing the problem to grow.
03:18:45Uh, but the most concrete
03:18:48"we know" table, as I said, was at the congress,
03:18:51where the minister and the former CMB president
03:18:55made a statement on this matter, saying "we know." Well,
03:18:59were any measures taken until August 2026? No measures
03:19:02were taken. Therefore, the problem grew, and the
03:19:06value increases in these stocks, which I mentioned earlier,
03:19:10multiplied and grew.
03:19:12At the end of August, of course, during this time,
03:19:16foreign organizations warned Turkey,
03:19:20gave deadlines, saying, "If you don't comply, we will remove
03:19:23you from the index, we will do this and that." With the influence of these,
03:19:27in August, the CMB came to a point
03:19:30of taking measures, making a regulation on this matter,
03:19:33but it was delayed so much and the problem
03:19:37was amplified so much that any measure
03:19:41you take will not have
03:19:44any effect in remedying
03:19:47the very significant damage. However, it will
03:19:50have an effect on preventing such dubious transactions
03:19:54in the future, and it will reduce them. Two dates were given,
03:19:58October and December, meaning that these manipulative
03:20:01or dubious transactions were not stopped
03:20:04immediately; a transition period was given, "You will
03:20:08do these things until October 31st, you will do these
03:20:11things until December 2026, and after that,
03:20:15you will no longer be able to do these transactions
03:20:17that you have done until now,"
03:20:19it said. However, the damage that occurred until
03:20:23August, that is, the abnormal inflation of the shares and
03:20:27their transfer to funds, and the public offering
03:20:30of these funds, is evident. How will you
03:20:34fix this? You couldn't fix it.
03:20:37With the regulations, the shares started
03:20:40to come to their real value, which is the only
03:20:44possible outcome; there is no other possible outcome for those
03:20:47shares because they were sold with a dream,
03:20:51that is, non-existent values were sold. For example,
03:20:55today, you look at a factoring company with 150 employees,
03:20:59you combine Yapı Kredi and Garanti Bank, its value
03:21:01is greater. Hedef Holding has 18 employees,
03:21:04that is, you look at it, it can become Turkey's
03:21:08second largest company in terms of value.
03:21:11You look at small companies, many industrial
03:21:14establishments, the most established industrial establishments in Turkey,
03:21:17have reached a greater value. How did they reach it?
03:21:21Entirely through dubious transactions, through reciprocal
03:21:24transactions, through those organized transactions,
03:21:27these transactions occurred knowingly, right before the authority's
03:21:30eyes. Therefore, when August 2026 arrived,
03:21:34the CMB had such a picture. Now,
03:21:38the damage had already occurred there, that is,
03:21:41any measure you take in the subsequent process
03:21:45will serve to reduce and eliminate such
03:21:48dubious transactions, or will achieve that. But
03:21:51until then, because you tolerated this damage and
03:21:55caused this damage to reach very high
03:21:58levels, a part of that damage.
03:22:01there would be a cost. Now, unfortunately,
03:22:04in these recent days, these last two days, with these incidents
03:22:08we experienced, the bill for this damage
03:22:11has slowly started to be charged to the participants.
03:22:15So, out of 220 funds,
03:22:18the liquidation of 130 funds has been decided.
03:22:22And for the remaining ones, the value of
03:22:2590 funds, which is announced daily,
03:22:29will be announced once a month and on the 15th
03:22:31of the month, and will be subject to buying and selling
03:22:35based on that value. What does this mean?
03:22:38For 90 funds, if you want to sell,
03:22:42you will wait for the value of that 15th day,
03:22:45meaning you will sell at the value after waiting 15 days.
03:22:49Now, these funds, especially stock funds, will lose value
03:22:53every day. They will lose value. So the process
03:22:56is going like this. Other money
03:23:00market funds, etc., containing values,
03:23:03also have a high probability of losing value
03:23:06during the process. Now, if you try to sell
03:23:09at the value of the 15th of that day,
03:23:12you will get less money than you would get today.
03:23:16If you want to withdraw that day. Now,
03:23:19the liquidation of 130 funds has been decided.
03:23:23So I will say one thing: T+2 is also being abolished,
03:23:26it is no longer valid.
03:23:27T+2 is abolished,
03:23:3015 working days, now think about it,
03:23:34who will remove the portfolio?
03:23:38There is 1.1 trillion TL worth, meaning these 220
03:23:41funds correspond to a massive amount of
03:23:441.1 trillion. There are approximately
03:23:481 million investors. Look,
03:23:51throughout history, since the Republic, even in the history of the Republic,
03:23:54and I have been in bureaucracy since the 80s,
03:23:58and I follow these issues very closely.
03:24:02In the history of the Republic, there have been very few transactions
03:24:05with such high damage, both in terms of amount
03:24:07and as an event that occurred right under the eyes of the authority.
03:24:11It is both a loss of trust and destructive,
03:24:14and so many investors
03:24:18have been victimized. This is a first in the history of the CMB.
03:24:21Now, we are talking about a size of 1.1 trillion
03:24:24and we are talking about 1 million people.
03:24:27The CMB will handle the liquidation of these
03:24:30130 companies that are being liquidated
03:24:34or put into liquidation. Now, how quickly
03:24:37will the CMB do this? When it does,
03:24:41the value of these funds will erode every day,
03:24:44it will disappear. Therefore, who will cover the damage
03:24:48that arises in this regard, which is very, very likely to be large damage?
03:24:51That's why I made a post on X
03:24:54today. Yes, there is a very big
03:24:58negligence, there is a very big dereliction of duty.
03:25:02This is very clear, but what needs to be done
03:25:05at this point are two urgent
03:25:09things. First, according to Article 17
03:25:12of Law No. 5549
03:25:15on the Prevention of Money Laundering, an urgent measure
03:25:19must be placed on the assets
03:25:21of these four bosses, meaning the four bosses currently
03:25:25under investigation. These are Destek, Hedef,
03:25:29Pusula, and Tera.
03:25:32An urgent measure must be placed on the assets of these four bosses, because there is a strong suspicion of crime,
03:25:36and the incidents that occurred are very serious.
03:25:39The damage that could be caused is very large.
03:25:42An urgent measure must be placed on their assets according
03:25:45to Article 17 of Law No. 5549. Then,
03:25:49with the values obtained as a result of this measure,
03:25:52the money of the investors in these funds, whatever amount can be covered,
03:25:56must be paid. It's not an easy
03:25:59thing. Why? Because, look,
03:26:03as long as there is negligence on the part of the public,
03:26:07as long as the public does not perform its duty,
03:26:10as long as it does not perform
03:26:13görevini yapmadığı sürece meydana gelen
03:26:16zararlarla ilgili olarak siz vatandaşı suçlayamazsınız. Şimdi
03:26:20genel olarak şöyle bir algı var, işte yüksek değerdeydi, e
03:26:24bilseydi, almasaydı, eee işte celemesini
03:26:27çeksin. Siz bunu söylerken kamunun
03:26:31bütün görevleri, bütün sorumlulukları yerine getirilmiştir, kamu
03:26:34görevini yapmıştır, denetim görevini yapmıştır, vatandaş. gitmiştir, riskli
03:26:38yatırım araçlarına parasını yatırmıştır, evet bunun karşılığında
03:26:41ceremesini çeksin dersiniz, ama kamu
03:26:45organize biçimde yapılan, gözgöre göre yapılan defalarca
03:26:49bütün uzmanların, aklı selim bütün uzmanların eee
03:26:52yaptığı uyarılara dikkat etmeden biliyoruz demesine
03:26:56rağmen bakan ve eski SPK başkanının bu
03:26:59dolandırıcılıklarla yüz binlerce vatandaşın dolandırılmasına
03:27:03eee sebebiyet verirse burada
03:27:06kamunun... da sorumluluğu var, elbette ki o görevlerin, görevlilerin
03:27:10görevi imalle ilgili bir süreci olacaktır, onlara destek verenler,
03:27:14çünkü kamudan siyasetten, bürokrasiden destek
03:27:17almadan bu kadar organize ve büyük çaplı
03:27:20bir eee şeyi, dolandırıcılığı
03:27:23gerçekleştirmeleri mümkün değil, ben 45 yıl ee masanın her tarafında çalışmış
03:27:27bir insanım, her eee görevde de bulundum, mümkün
03:27:31değil, dolayısıyla mutlaka onlar bundan sonraki süreçte
03:27:35şeyi eee sorumluluklarının. yerine
03:27:38getirecek ve yargı da bunların hesabını soracaktı, dolayısıyla kamu
03:27:41görevini yapmadığı için, sorumluluklarını yerine getirmediği için, bu
03:27:45dolandırıcılıkların yapılmasına göz yumduğu
03:27:48için, görmediği için eee bu yatırımcıların mümkün
03:27:52olduğunca bakın hazineye el atılsın demiyorum, hazineye el
03:27:55atılmadan, hazineye sirayet etmeden bu kişilerin
03:27:59çaldıkları paraları başka yerlere
03:28:02devretmemeleri için bu kişilerin bir kere mal varlıklarına el
03:28:05konulması lazım neden? bakın sermaye piyasası kanunu
03:28:0963-62 sayılı kanunda 107 madde piyasa dolandırıcılığın
03:28:13işte manipülasyon dedikleri şeyin
03:28:16karşılığı kanunda piyasa dolandırıcılığıdır.
03:28:21arıcılığında bir kere cezalar çok düşük, siz bankada bir
03:28:24şube müdürü veya yönetici olarak bir mudinin hesabından
03:28:27100.000'yi izinsiz aldığınız zaman sate bir imzayla 20
03:28:31yıla kadar hapis cezası var 20 yıla kadar 160
03:28:34madde sermaye piyasası kanunu'nun 107 maddesinde yani
03:28:38bugün yapılan işlemlerin karşılığı olan piyasa dolandırıcılığında yüz
03:28:42binlerce yatırımcıyı dolandırıyorsunuz bakın yüz binlerce
03:28:45yatırımcıyı yüz binlerce yatırımcının parasını çalıyorsunuz
03:28:49alacağınız 3 ve 5 yıl arası
03:28:52da üçüncü fıkra gereği eee tespit
03:28:55edilebilen zararın iki katını hazineye ödediğinizde
03:28:58bakın hazineye şeye değil yatırımcılara
03:29:01değil hazineye ödediğinizde hiç ceza
03:29:03yok yani onun için
03:29:07bugünkü paylaşımda yani
03:29:10zarara uğrayan gözgöre göre kamunun görevini yapmaması
03:29:14nedeniyle zarara uğrayan eee yatırımcıları da
03:29:18kollamak adına hazineyen sirayet etmesini önlemek
03:29:21adına bu tedbir konularak elde edilecek
03:29:25ki yurt dışı varlıklarına da gitmesi lazım masaın elde edilecek
03:29:28varlıkların eee gerçekten zarara uğrayan bu
03:29:32kişilere dağıtılması uygun çözüm
03:29:34olacak
03:29:36peki eee dolayısıyla bunun bir sermaye piyasası ayağı var bugün
03:29:40eee işte gerçekleşen en son olayda bir de
03:29:43eee finans piyasalarına da sirayet etme
03:29:47riski var şu anda çünkü bu eee
03:29:50dört grubun yatırım bankaları, pusulanında
03:29:53katılım bankası var, dolayısıyla sadece sermaye
03:29:57piyasalarına ilgilendiren bir sorun yok, aynı zamanda
03:30:01eee bankacılık eee sektörünü de ilgilendirdiği için bu
03:30:04gruplara ait birer bankada olduğu için katılım bankası da
03:30:08dahil eee BDDK'nın ve finans piyasaları ile ilgili otoritenin
03:30:11yani BDDK'nın da eee devreye girmesi lazım
03:30:15nedenle bir üçüncü şey yapılması lazım Gökmen
03:30:18Bey, BDDK. ve eee
03:30:21tmsf'nin bir araya gelmesi acilen bu
03:30:25bankalara bir kere bir yönetim ataması
03:30:28lazım ve pusula holding'e bir yönetim ataması lazım veya diğer
03:30:32holdinglere, çünkü eee siz eee çok önemli bir
03:30:36iddiayla bu kişileri soruşturuyorsunuz, yurt dışı yasağı koyuyorsunuz,
03:30:39işte arkasında belki tutuklamalar gelecek, bugün birkaç
03:30:43tutuklama olduğu söyleniyor bu gözaltına alınan patronlarla
03:30:46ilgili e ama bu insanlar işinin başında.
03:30:50peki işinin başındayken eee delil karartma işte mal
03:30:54kaçırma gizleme eee türü şeylerin
03:30:57yapılmayacağını nereden biliyorsunuz onun için
03:30:59eee hem tedbir mallarına tedbir hem de
03:31:03işte eee bu ilgili kurumlara eee bir eee
03:31:07kamunun yönetimi eee oluşturarak bir atama
03:31:10yapması eee şu anda gelinen noktada uygun çözüm olacak gibi
03:31:14duruyor evet eee bir
03:31:17figen hanıma tabii tabii soru sorcak. Bu arada Murat hocam bu
03:31:21rakamlar ne ya 1,1 trilyonluk şey toplam
03:31:24eee fonların değeri evet 17 milyar dolarlık
03:31:28bir şey var yani 1 milyon insanın
03:31:32doğrudan dahil olduğu bir durumdan bahsediyoruz ki birçok insan
03:31:36bankalar tarafından yönlendirilmiş gitmişler
03:31:38bankaya bakın burada az önce bize yazan mesela
03:31:42izleyicinin durumundaki gibi hani garantili en düşük
03:31:45riskli olduğu varsayılan para
03:31:48piyasası fonu almış ama para... piyasası fonu ters
03:31:51repo işlemini bir hisse senedini dayanak gösterererek
03:31:55yapmış o şirketin yani burada yine
03:31:58ee o şirketin de yönetim kurulu başkanı şimdi gözaltında
03:32:02destek factoring ya baktığınızda inanılmaz bir
03:32:05değer var ya defter değerinin 100 katına
03:32:08ulaşmış spk bunun neresinde devreye girecek pia değeri
03:32:12şirketin defter değerinin 100 katına uşmış katına ulaşmış
03:32:16yani destek faktoring iş bankasının 2,5 katı olmuş ya.
03:32:20ya siz bir yerinde demez misiniz yani bu bu arada 2,5 katı dediğim şu
03:32:24anki değeri yarısına düşmüş hali bu yani bu
03:32:27bir yerde sürdürülemeyecekti zaten bu bir yerde çökecekti
03:32:30spk'nın bu balonu görüp buradaki anormal
03:32:33hareketleri bu markezin kırmızı pazartesi vardır
03:32:37ya herkes bilir o cinayetin işleneceğiniz hikayeye öyle
03:32:40gireriz herkes biliyordu bütün
03:32:43forumlara vesaireye girdiğinizde bu aracı
03:32:46kurumlar bu kurumlar bu fonlar nereye?
03:32:50iş yaparsa millet orayı yakalamaya çalışıyordu, alıyordu,
03:32:52uçuruyordu, 50 liradan çıkmış hisse senedi
03:32:56bir sene, bir buçuk sene önce piyasaya arz edilmiş, mesela bu bahsettiğim destek
03:33:00faktörünik, 50 liradan çıkmış ta
03:33:03gitmiş 4.000 liralara, ya şimdi 2.000 liralardayken bu
03:33:07olay gerçekleşti, siz nerede müdahale edecektiniz buna,
03:33:11yani buradaki değerlerin tutmadığını, burada çok büyük balon ortaya çıktığını bilmiyor
03:33:14musunuz, hepsini geçtim, bu eğer
03:33:17olmaması gereken işte...
03:33:25çok büyük bir ihmal var burada ve önümüzdeki süreçte hani seçim
03:33:29vesaire diyoruz ya hani ne olacak siz faiz indireceksiniz vatanda.
03:33:37Bu borsaya kim girer böyle bir
03:33:38ortamda? Bigen hanım
03:33:41e Ramazan Bey şuna dikkat
03:33:44çekti, evet yani bu tür yatırımlarda bulunmak
03:33:48risklidir. Dolayısıyla hani bu riskin doğa
03:33:51sonuçlarından biri de kaybetmektir.
03:33:54Ama ilgili kurumlar görevlerini tam olarak
03:33:57yerine getirmek kaydıyla bu risk
03:34:00eee bu şekilde değerlen. Siz ne
03:34:03dersiniz, siz de çünkü buna benzer şeyler söylemiştiniz o iki
03:34:07dilim önce konuşmamızda evet
03:34:11Ramazan Bey'in anlatımları değerli tabii ki, şimdi
03:34:13burada kurumların bağımsızlığına çok
03:34:17ihtiyacımız var, bunu tekrar ediyorum, bir daha bunun
03:34:20yaşanmaması için yapısal önlemler işte
03:34:24yapabilirler ama bunları uygulamada
03:34:27kararlılık görür müyüz, çünkü
03:34:31bakanı. dediği neredeyse 10 ay oluyor tespiti
03:34:35peki eee bu SPK Maliye Bakanlığına
03:34:38bağlı Hazine ve Maliye Bakanlığına bağlı tabii ki kararlarını ayrı alan bir kurum
03:34:42onu demek istemiyorum ama başındaki bakan bunu tespit
03:34:46ettikten sonra oradaki uzmanların bu gerçeği
03:34:49bilmeleri görmeleri ee
03:34:51kaçınılmaz uzman olarak orada oturuyorlar ve az evvel kanuna
03:34:55da değindim hele ki gözetim ve denetim eee
03:34:59dairesinin görevleri çok net özellikle. "özellikle
03:35:03bu tür işlemler, bu tür yoğunlaşmalar,
03:35:06dolandırıcılığa yönelik, piyasa dolandırıcılığa yönelik
03:35:09hareketleri en rahat onlar görebilir. şimdi Ramazan Bey
03:35:13eee daha uygun bir üslupla ihmal dedi, eee, bu
03:35:17biraz eee daha dikkatli bir eee
03:35:20soruşturmayı gerektirir, bağımsız kurumlar derken
03:35:23hakikaten vatandaşın canı burada çok yandı, vatandaşın
03:35:27canını yakıldığı kadar o oranda kazananlar
03:35:30var, bu kazananlar kimler? paydaşları kimler, yani
03:35:34sadece burada 4 kişi veya o şirketler değil, şimdi
03:35:38basitçe bir gecede bir sabah uyandık, tavut şirketlerine
03:35:41denetim kayyum atandığını gördük ki yasada mümkün değildi o
03:35:45suçta, bunu da o zaman tekrar tekrar söyledim, şimdi
03:35:48burada mutlaka ve mutlaka bu tedbirlerin işletilmesi
03:35:52lazım, artık bağımsız yöneticilere bunların
03:35:55geçirilmesi ve sıkı denetlenmesi lazım, bunun yasada karşılığı
03:35:59var ve Türkiye'deki cumhuriyetin.
03:36:02Savcılarına gerçekten çok ciddi iş düşüyor ama
03:36:06şimdi bakarsanız bakan 10 aylık
03:36:10sürede bunu baştan biliyor olmasına rağmen bu
03:36:13gidişatı durduramamış ve bu ağır yıkım
03:36:17engellenememiş ise bunu bunun eli
03:36:20kolunu bağlayan kim yani bu
03:36:22irade nasıl kaynaklanıyor bunlar nerelerden bu
03:36:26cesaret alınıyor bunların bir bağımsız
03:36:30tarafsız cumhuriyet. Savcılıklar
03:36:33tarafından araştırılması, soruşturulması gerekiyor. Biz bunu
03:36:37görecek miyiz? Gökmen Bey ee pek emin
03:36:40değilim. Yani bu 10 aylık süreçte yaşananlar
03:36:43sonrasında kazananlar var, hem
03:36:47de öyle böyle değil fazlas kazananlar var. Ramazan Bey
03:36:50başka bir yol gösterdi, mal varlıkları. Dilerim üstlerinde mal
03:36:54varlıkları vardır. Olmayaması kuvvetle
03:36:57muhtemel. Yani bu insanların evet eee
03:37:00zararları var. O insanları. "suçlama gibi bir
03:37:04lüksümüz yok, çok doğru bir tespit, sistem dört dörtlük
03:37:07olur, şahısların kendi tercihleridir, o risk analizlerini yapmışlardır
03:37:11ve bunu üstlenmişlerdir, ama burada öyle bir durum yok, çok ciddi
03:37:15bir zaafiyet var, ben
03:37:18beklerim ki bir hukukçu olarak ve bu ülkenin bir
03:37:21vatandaşı olarak cumhuriyet tarihinde görülmemiş dedi
03:37:25Ramazan bey rakamlar uçuk ve bence bu burada
03:37:28kalmayacak eee daha da büyük farklı işlemlerin."
03:37:43what date we will see, if it can be stopped, it couldn't be stopped, we don't know if it went out of the loop. I hope they quickly put in place very strict measures to compensate for this process and present it to the citizens. But
03:37:47Mrs. Figen, a committee of the ministry
03:37:50gathered on this, and a statement came from that committee,
03:37:54the Financial Stability Committee said there is no serious situation,
03:37:58no infrastructural problem, etc.
03:38:01Immediately after these events, the minister appeared on live broadcast
03:38:05and did not address this issue at all.
03:38:08I think the main thing that was said was that it could be managed temporarily,
03:38:12but Mrs. Figen, the minister didn't address the issue at all.
03:38:16I watched it specifically. He appeared on Habertürk
03:38:20as if that day the whole country was burning
03:38:23and this event had erupted. Neither he brought it up, nor did
03:38:27the person asking the questions,
03:38:30the moderator, ask him about it.
03:38:33They don't talk about the suffering of the citizens.
03:38:37That's not an issue for them.
03:38:40They talk about whether they can get the turmoil under control.
03:38:43There's a lot of money involved, a huge amount of money.
03:38:47There's a significant outflow in reserves today as well,
03:38:50and the measures taken are to ensure
03:38:53liquidity. There's such a big concern
03:38:57about contagion that we quickly saw the measures
03:39:00taken by the BRSA and the Central Bank. We first saw the Central Bank's
03:39:04measures, and they were eased. Why? Because
03:39:08it could lead to a very serious monetary problem,
03:39:11it could be contagious. These are not small numbers.
03:39:23Consider the money circulating and the money flowing out. At the same time, there is a loss of trust. We were going to provide this trust, investments were going to come, and everything was ruined here. This cannot be seen
03:39:27as insignificant. Mr. Ramazan, you wanted
03:39:30to say something. Can I say something? Now, look,
03:39:34we are facing a very, very big event,
03:39:36and hundreds of billions of dollars. uh, sorry, TL
03:39:39in criminal proceeds were obtained here,
03:39:43because market manipulation
03:39:45carries a prison sentence of 3 to 5 years.
03:39:49The values obtained are criminal proceeds,
03:39:52and these have been subjected
03:39:56to laundering according to Article 282 of the TPC.
03:39:59Therefore, we have been on the grey list
03:40:02twice, in 2011-2014,
03:40:06and 2021-2024, totaling 6 years,
03:40:09and we paid very high prices.
03:40:12We are still under close monitoring. So, as a country
03:40:16on the FATF's close radar,
03:40:19we should be very sensitive to these issues,
03:40:23but in this incident alone, hundreds of billions
03:40:26of liras of black money and money laundering traffic
03:40:29occurred, and unfortunately,
03:40:32the relevant authorities did not
03:40:35intervene in these. Therefore,
03:40:39these investigations will definitely
03:40:43fall under TPC Article 282, because they are criminal proceeds.
03:40:46They will all be subject to TPC
03:40:49Article 282. And some of these groups
03:40:53had announced that they made investments abroad. They had announced that they bought participation banks abroad,
03:40:56in countries like Holland and some other third world countries.
03:41:00They had said that they made
03:41:02investments, they had announced
03:41:06it. I had also made a post on X,
03:41:09I said the money has moved to the laundering stage.
03:41:12So, you said it moved to the laundering stage,
03:41:16meaning criminal proceeds were obtained, meaning
03:41:19a fraud transaction occurred according to 107,
03:41:22worth hundreds of billions of liras. So, money was obtained
03:41:26and put into laundering. Now, for example,
03:41:29for years, we always asked where we could earn the easiest, fastest,
03:41:33and most money. Wasn't it from drugs? From drugs.
03:41:36But in recent years, I've shared this many times,
03:41:39the ranking has changed in recent years. The easiest, fastest,
03:41:43and most money comes from illegal betting, market
03:41:46manipulation, and drugs.
03:41:49Why? Because in drugs, there's a process: you plant, you sow,
03:41:52there are chemical processes,
03:41:56logistics, etc. Let's not elaborate on that.
03:42:00But in market manipulation and
03:42:02illegal betting, a few programs,
03:42:063-4 computers. In market manipulation, when you make a deal
03:42:09with a few brokerage firms and a boss, you can earn
03:42:13hundreds of billions or tens of billions of liras
03:42:16in a very short
03:42:18time.
03:42:21In a very short time. Therefore,
03:42:24these investigations, as I said, will also be subject
03:42:27to TPC 282 money laundering,
03:42:31and in subsequent processes,
03:42:33when the FATF evaluates us, it will definitely
03:42:37have criticisms about why we did not intervene
03:42:40in the increased money laundering traffic.
03:42:43Now, Mr. Ramazan, when you say things will be done
03:42:46like this, you are referring to what needs to be done.
03:42:50As far as I understand, do you have enough
03:42:53faith that these will be carried out perfectly,
03:42:56as you said? Are you confident
03:43:00about this? I mean,
03:43:02I want to believe. I can't really
03:43:05say that
03:43:07it will definitely be done,
03:43:11etc., in such a relaxed and definite tone.
03:43:14But an important step has been taken.
03:43:17I mean, it was thought
03:43:21that these would never be touched
03:43:24until about a week ago. Because you see,
03:43:28there's a transfer from MIT
03:43:31within a group, you see there's a member
03:43:34of the Presidential Economic Policies Committee, so-and-so,
03:43:38you see there's a former Undersecretary
03:43:41in the Ministry of Finance at a very high level.
03:43:45So, relationships
03:43:48are being talked about, who they are in relationships with,
03:43:51etc. The idea that a step could not be taken
03:43:54on this issue was more dominant, but today
03:43:58we saw that, one way or another, this step was taken.
03:44:01I also attach great importance to this, because if
03:44:04it had been delayed, the number of 1 million people
03:44:07currently suffering, the number of 1 million people,
03:44:11would have been much higher. The fund size of 1.1
03:44:14trillion would have been 2.1 trillion,
03:44:17and it would have reached much more destructive points.
03:44:21From this perspective, even though it's very late,
03:44:24I still consider it an important step and I hope
03:44:27it continues. Nesrin NASA sent us a message,
03:44:31saying, Mr. Gökmen, institutions like the CMB
03:44:34and the BRSA, Nesrin Hanım makes an analogy here,
03:44:37are institutions that clear the table during a party
03:44:40to prevent excessive behavior. They are not spectators,
03:44:44she says, they don't just watch the party as spectators.
03:44:48And of course, there will be excessive behavior in such things.
03:44:51They are there to prevent this, they are institutions
03:44:54that clear the table, she says. And also,
03:44:57look, now
03:45:01in these, there are
03:45:04three investment banks in these groups, meaning the groups currently under investigation.
03:45:08I also said there's a participation bank
03:45:10and two savings and finance sectors.
03:45:14So there's Katılım Evim and Bir Evim.
03:45:18Now, why is the savings and finance sector
03:45:22important? Because
03:45:24it operates by collecting money from the public,
03:45:28meaning it's like a deposit, not a deposit,
03:45:31but it collects money from the public.
03:45:34sector. Now, today,
03:45:38Katilim Evim's customer count is 110
03:45:41thousand, meaning 70 thousand-something are vehicles,
03:45:45and the rest, which are houses.
03:45:48Now, I don't know how much Bir Evim is,
03:45:52I don't think Bir Evim will cause much of a problem
03:45:55because most of these transactions were carried out through Katilim Evim.
03:45:59The most common question is, will we
03:46:03be able to get our money back? If Katilim Evim and Bir Evim
03:46:06acted in accordance with the
03:46:10regulations, i.e., Law No. 63-61,
03:46:13they started to be subject to the supervision and auditing
03:46:17of the BRSA in 2021. The savings
03:46:20finance sector. If they acted in accordance
03:46:22with this law and secondary regulations
03:46:26issued by the BRSA, I believe
03:46:29that the participants, the customers,
03:46:32will be able to get their money back. However,
03:46:36if they used the bills and other things
03:46:39there contrary to the regulations, there will undoubtedly
03:46:42be a serious problem. From this perspective,
03:46:45the savings finance sector also has
03:46:49about 100,000 people. In Bir Evim,
03:46:53you can find around 30-40 thousand people
03:46:56in total. There is a group of 50 thousand people
03:46:59there. From this perspective,
03:47:03the magnitude of the event is on top of many people.
03:47:07And there are also development investment banks. Today,
03:47:10I looked, there is an asset total
03:47:13of over 150 billion. Development investment banks
03:47:17have borrowed and lent money to many institutions
03:47:21and many people. There is also a possible
03:47:24danger in the finance sector from that side.
03:47:27There is a danger of it spreading generally.
03:47:31From this perspective, the issue is not just
03:47:35the capital market, but also the savings finance sector,
03:47:38the banking sector, and its subsidiaries. Therefore,
03:47:41a much more careful process needs to be carried out. For this,
03:47:45as I said, the managements must be determined
03:47:47by the public, and this process should be carried
03:47:51out under the supervision of those managers. Yes, but let me add this here:
03:47:55in the case of Katilim Evim, the BRSA has an obligation
03:47:58to audit the asset managements of these savings finance companies.
03:48:02It doesn't offer a deposit insurance like a deposit insurance,
03:48:05but if those assets are somehow illegally removed from the system,
03:48:09the BRSA should have intervened. It has a serious responsibility
03:48:12there. If so, we are facing a very big negligence.
03:48:16My question is about how effectively these investigations and examinations,
03:48:19covering all institutions, will be carried out
03:48:23to address this issue. Actually, I think
03:48:26it's the 4.3rd in the system, if I'm not mistaken.
03:48:30I'm using the example of one of the most important
03:48:34companies. I'm also
03:48:37a bit of a company, let me hear from İsmail Bey, then I'll return
03:48:40to Figen. Yes, we need to decide on this.
03:48:44Now, the minister's statement
03:48:46date is November 4, 2025. At the Turkish Capital Markets Congress,
03:48:50he said, "I will look at the issue more simply."
03:48:54I will try to summarize it very concisely. We know
03:48:57that manipulations are being made through these. Now,
03:49:01at best, after the words of the Minister of Treasury and Finance,
03:49:04who is the institution that needs to take action
03:49:08on this matter? The Capital Markets Board.
03:49:10Isn't it very simple? If I'm wrong, Mr. Ramazan can correct me.
03:49:13Now, as far as I know, the CMB
03:49:16chairman will change on May 9, 2026.
03:49:19Okay, the CMB chairman until then didn't do it.
03:49:22What month are we in now, from May? We are in September.
03:49:26Why didn't the CMB chairman and management take action
03:49:30on this matter until September? I'm trying to say
03:49:33these connections This is not a situation
03:49:36to be dismissed as unimportant. a spectator position
03:49:40on this matter, its current acting chairman
03:49:43and influential people? I think that's the main question here.
03:49:47How many precautions can they take? What are their limits?
03:49:50I think this is currently unknown, because
03:49:54there is such a situation that
03:49:57he said there is
03:49:59negligence by the public, very correctly, and I agree.
03:50:02Of course, there is negligence by the public because
03:50:06they are in a spectator position. We also know
03:50:08that after this incident, the CMB prepared a guide
03:50:12starting from August 28, and it was said that
03:50:15these institutions would comply with it. So they know very well
03:50:19what the problem is. Of course, after this incident
03:50:22erupted in these stocks, they made prohibition
03:50:25lists for the managements of various institutions and funds,
03:50:29and gave various penalties. They are very well
03:50:32aware of who did not fulfill
03:50:35their obligations and which institution.
03:50:38Measures had already been taken in these stocks.
03:50:42For example, the volatility-based measures for short selling
03:50:47were taken two or three times. But despite that, nothing.
03:50:51So the question comes to my mind: despite this process
03:50:55being followed in great detail, despite the necessary moves
03:50:58being made immediately afterwards, person by person,
03:51:01institution by institution, why wasn't it done before?
03:51:05I think that's the main problem here. And therefore,
03:51:08look, the current CMB chairman was the second chairman
03:51:11in the previous period. Well, the other aspect of the matter,
03:51:14Mr. Ramazan, there is a continuous
03:51:17responsibility there, a legal context.
03:51:20Therefore, if this investigation is to proceed,
03:51:24if this investigation is to proceed,
03:51:28administrative action must be taken here,
03:51:32and the necessary measures must be taken as soon as possible
03:51:35to make this person's investigation more effective. I cannot
03:52:01Also, in June, the investment's negative
03:52:05foreign capital investment turned negative on August 25.
03:52:08Now, also,
03:52:20I need to go to a commercial. Can you stay for another 5 minutes
03:52:24in the next segment? Please complete your comment there,
03:52:26because what you said is important. İsmail, you've also followed
03:52:29these issues very well. Because everyone,
03:52:33we have many people around us asking us, İsmail,
03:52:37we are bidding farewell in this segment. I will continue with my other guests. Thank you very much.
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03:56:59"To make the unheard heard, to say the unsaid,
03:57:03to show the unseen."
03:57:04From the streets to politics,
03:57:13from markets to financial markets, from street vendors' stalls
03:57:17to large market shelves.
03:57:19Every weekday morning
03:57:30from 7 to 10, as Turkey wakes up,
03:57:34we will be together in this studio.
03:57:48Turkey's energy depot. Orbus.
03:58:06Openly continues. We will say goodbye to Ms. Figen,
03:58:09but she was saying something important before the break,
03:58:13so we asked her to complete it.
03:58:15Please, Ms. Figen.
03:58:17So, on August 25-26, it was observed
03:58:21that foreign capital turned negative in terms
03:58:24of inflows and outflows. We had seen the Central Bank's
03:58:28statements and declarations in this regard.
03:58:31But what I want to say here is that these are intertwined structures,
03:58:35especially when I look, I see Pusula Finans Holding,
03:58:38portfolio funds, participation house, etc. Now,
03:58:41if a truly effective investigation
03:58:45is to be conducted,
03:58:47can be examined. So, technically,
03:58:51these are among the things that need to be legally examined.
03:58:54Is there a division of labor among them? Was it established
03:58:57in advance? Now, when you look at it,
03:59:01these were permitted about 3 years ago,
03:59:05and as Mr. Ramazan also said,
03:59:08they operate on a small scale, with about 18 people.
03:59:11But when you look at it, these are places where very
03:59:15large amounts of money circulate. In terms of stock prices
03:59:17or trading volume, not to give a misleading
03:59:21impression, these are not ordinary matters,
03:59:24not things that happen by chance. In that sense,
03:59:28the provisions of the TCK also come into play.
03:59:31That also needs to be looked at if an effective investigation
03:59:35is desired. I wanted to explain that.
03:59:39This is very important. A significant duty falls
03:59:43upon the public prosecutors. The fire in the pockets
03:59:45of so many thousands of citizens will seriously affect the market,
03:59:48and we are facing a situation that can cause many breakdowns,
03:59:52kırılmaya da neden olabilecek bir durumla karşı karşıyayız öyle
03:59:55önemsiz geçiştirilecek bir durum değil peki
03:59:59Well, Figen Çalıkuşu, thank you very much
04:00:02for your contribution. Good evening,
04:00:05see you. Now, Professor Murat will tell us
04:00:08more about this issue, and former MASAK vice president
04:00:12Mr. Ramazan will also explain, but I didn't give the floor
04:00:15to Mr. Doğan in the previous segment, yet these issues certainly have
04:00:19political dimensions to be interpreted. Look, we also said this,
04:00:22didn't we? What did NTR Holding boss Emre Tezmen say?
04:00:25He said, "I want to express clearly here that my respect,
04:00:29love, and faith in our President and his team, who work day and night
04:00:33for the independence of our country,
04:00:36are infinite." In line with the national vision represented by our President,