Google Cloud Speech-to-Text API (Chirp) + Gemini 2.5 Flash Non-Thinking. Treat it as a searchable index of what was broadcast, not a quotation record.
00:00:12No one thought that this crisis would continue for
00:00:1620 days and it is not clear how much longer it will continue.
00:00:20For this reason, the world oil market
00:00:23is under severe pressure from supply.
00:00:27We are seeing severe reactions, and we are reaching a stage
00:00:30where there is a possibility of an overshoot in oil prices
00:00:34with the slightest tension. Mr. Robati,
00:00:38that's why some people say, "Now the war has just begun." They say,
00:00:41"Now the war has just begun for them."
00:00:44We were involved in an economic war before,
00:00:48and we were sanctioned before. We were sanctioned.
00:00:51They were able to stage a coup d'état with the same atmosphere in the country.
00:00:55It was economic, right? Exactly.
00:00:58The story is that they are gradually
00:01:01feeling the pressures. And
00:01:04why exactly is the playing field turning around and the war moving to their side?
00:01:18this story so that we reach a conclusion." If we
00:01:21want to retreat at this point,
00:01:24what will happen? How will the situation be? I mean, this whole market can
00:01:28turn back again. I mean, all of these
00:02:00The point is that, yes, if the same agreement with Oman
00:02:03is to be made again and oil exports are opened, these
00:02:07will quickly refill the reserves, and oil prices will again
00:02:11rise for a long time. The signals that Trump is giving are, "Come on, this is a different situation now."
00:02:14Yes, this is it. The bond yield is going up, the US economy is under
00:02:18pressure, and
00:02:21oil prices are on the verge
00:02:49has been controlled at 110 until now, it will continue to be controlled.
00:02:52Suddenly, it might make
00:02:56those strange movements, and perhaps if
00:03:00there hadn't been the Islamabad memorandum or other events, that overshoot
00:03:03in oil would have happened much sooner. And that
00:03:07small window of opportunity that was created for
00:03:11reserves to be refilled and the market to calm down a bit, well, some say
00:03:14it won't happen that way. They say, "You don't know, America will eventually
00:03:18pull something out of its magic box with the extensive economic tools
00:03:22it has.
00:03:38know what the reason for people's livelihood is, why the situation
00:03:42is like this, what the solution is. What is it in America? What is it in Japan?
00:03:45And with a very precise
00:03:49estimation, it's clear what's happening. And indeed,
00:03:52America's economic tools now have a debt of 234 trillion
00:03:56dollars, and it's repaying this debt
00:04:00with new debt. That is, with new debt, with these new loans that go from one pocket to
00:04:03another. And every year, approximately 2 trillion dollars are added
00:04:07to that debt. They say it's the most indebted country in the world. If
00:04:11it had something strange in its magic box, it would have fixed
00:04:14that first, and then it would have moved on to other issues.
00:04:18And petrodollars wouldn't have been
00:04:29they have played not all their cards, but 80% of their cards.
00:04:33Maybe 20% of their cards are still unplayed, but
00:04:37I think Iran's unplayed cards
00:04:39are more. This is my guess and my analysis.
00:04:43And my conclusion is that our
00:04:46problem in the economic war and resilience,
00:04:49Mr. Razavi, our problem, dear viewers, is not
00:04:53America. Our problem is ourselves, our economic
00:04:56governance model. And
00:05:01now a series of political economy issues that are imposed on that governance
00:05:04model have caused us
00:05:22was good or bad, because some people say that I only mentioned its economic aspect. I know
00:05:26that some people say that it created an opportunity for us too. For example,
00:05:30the 80 million barrels that we sent out to sea,
00:05:34well, we had to do something for
00:05:38this to happen. Although, the naval blockade after the negotiations
00:05:41in Islamabad
00:05:48was supposed to be like that. And well, I don't care, some things like
00:05:51hitting infrastructure, we
00:05:54gained experience from this. We must admit
00:05:58that we, the Iranian nation, together, have the right to say that some
00:06:02things happened until we saw the 12-day war. We didn't know, for example, this thing or opinion, we
00:06:05knew it, we understood its practical
00:06:08positive and negative aspects. Now, they ask here, "What if oil prices go up?"
00:06:12I think on the first or second day of the war,
00:06:16Mr. Shakeri was on the phone in the program and said this point. Some people
00:06:20actually raised this as a criticism, but I think it was a very accurate and correct point that
00:06:24we were discussing with you before the program today, and this was emphasized:
00:06:27that if oil prices suddenly jump
00:06:30(let's call it an overshoot), a sudden jump
00:06:33to 120 dollars, 130 dollars, what do I know,
00:06:37115 dollars, for example, sudden jumps might happen
00:06:40for the reasons you mentioned. Now, the second question is whether it's even good for us or not,
00:06:44because at first glance, it's good, right? It's a pressure, but on the other hand, there's always a point
00:06:48that they say a type of, that is, the pressure
00:06:51in the market now is for what? I'm saying this for the viewers to know.
00:06:55The question is getting long. The pressure is for what? The supply is low.
00:06:58A certain amount, a type
00:07:01of oil extraction exists that is specifically, for example, shale
00:07:05and some other forms. These
00:07:08are very expensive to produce.
00:07:11Therefore, when oil prices are low,
00:07:25millions of barrels will enter the market in a short period (not tomorrow,
00:07:28for example), and this will turn out to be against your interest.
00:07:32There's an answer that Mr. Shakeri also gave before, but now you
00:07:35can also say it: Is it good for us that oil prices go up, or not? Or rather,
00:07:39to what extent is it good for the other side?
00:08:21assumed that if the Strait of Hormuz is closed, right now,
00:08:24what will happen? So, 15-16 years
00:08:28ago, you took the trouble to examine the dependence
00:08:31of industrial countries on oil exported from the Strait of Hormuz, estimating the demand function
00:08:34for oil in the Persian Gulf. We ran several
00:08:38econometric models to see how really the elasticities
00:08:42are. Elasticity means the coefficient of change in variables
00:08:45relative to each other. That is, what happens to demand if the price becomes this? What happens to renewable
00:08:49energies? And so on. The output that
00:08:52we reached was that first, something that was addressed
00:08:56in the article at that time is that Saudi Arabia
00:09:00is waiting to make Yanbu a substitute for the Strait of Hormuz.
00:09:03That is, the same
00:09:06pipeline. Yes, that part. The
00:09:09conclusion of the article was, in line with what Mr.
00:09:13Khezab mentioned regarding whether high oil prices are beneficial or detrimental to us.
00:09:16The output of the article that we reached 16 years ago was
00:09:20that in the short term,
00:09:24raising oil prices by closing the strait and reducing
00:09:27supply will result
00:09:30in industrial countries having no solution,
00:09:34meaning they will be checkmated. They will be in a stalemate,
00:09:37they won't be able to do anything. And that
00:09:40price
00:09:43cannot be covered or
00:09:47managed by any means, and no
00:09:49change will occur in the structure of global oil demand
00:09:53in the short term. Short term, what period? A period
00:09:57between one to two years. One to two years
00:10:01from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, in a way that, according to
00:10:04our previous charts, the structure of the global energy market will be affected by a contract that
00:10:07will remain a source, and it will be able to influence
00:10:10this SPR, putting China under pressure. Now, Saudi Arabia is also under
00:10:14pressure from two fronts, and this is in the short
00:10:17term, and for war, this short term is important to us. We don't want to see
00:10:21what happens in the market structure in 5 years. We don't want to keep the Strait of
00:10:25Hormuz closed for 5 years, but
00:10:29the finding of the article was that in the long term, beyond two years, if the strait
00:10:32remains closed, it will gradually lose its importance in the global
00:10:36oil demand function, and
00:10:40shale oil will be substituted due to high oil prices.
00:10:43Renewable energies will be substituted.
00:10:48Other oil export routes like Yanbu
00:10:51and Bab el-Mandeb will replace the Strait of Hormuz. Of course, we discussed those materials,
00:10:54and they cannot be safe again. They won't be safe,
00:10:58but economically, they will supply the market.
00:11:01Yes, they can, but if the market was supplied at $60 oil,
00:11:05now it's supplied at $100. Then it will be supplied at $160,
00:11:08which again goes back to the bond yield.
00:11:11Well, this means a terrible inflation caused by
00:11:15cost-push or pressure from energy costs in the global
00:11:18economy, which will again
00:11:26the domestic situation. We have a serious dilemma now. People say that some
00:11:30are portraying it as either we have to address people's livelihood
00:11:33or we have to resist. This approach you are talking
00:11:37about, resilience, resilience,
00:11:39resilience, okay, let's accept it. If we
00:11:43maintain this line, America's situation will be
00:11:46ruined. We must be able to preserve ourselves, or not? Let's assume
00:11:50America's situation also worsened. When my economic situation is so
00:11:54bad that I don't know, so many percent of society
00:11:57are below the poverty line, there's pressure, inflation, what's the point? Whatever happened
00:12:01to America, happened. We must be able to remain. You
00:12:05made a point, you said, "I think the problem is not there, the problem is domestic,
00:12:38obvious. What caused
00:12:41Israel and
00:12:44America to covet attacking us? What was the reason?
00:12:47The reason was that they felt people were extremely
00:12:51dissatisfied economically, and with the
00:12:57actions they would take, it would lead to a series
00:13:00of events that would bring them to their ultimate goal, which is
00:13:03the disintegration of Iran. I'm not saying
00:13:06their ultimate goal is the overthrow of the Islamic Republic. By no means is their ultimate
00:13:10goal the disintegration of Iran. That's still there,
00:13:14and it's a gradual process,
00:13:18and it will reach that goal.
00:13:25for years, this discussion we are having now, Mr. Razavi, is not
00:13:29political, it's really not political, it's about numbers
00:13:33and figures. And if my writings
00:13:36are seen, we have always said these things from the perspective of an economic
00:13:40expert: that
00:13:43this economic approach will lead to
00:13:47what? What exactly is this, I mean, why
00:13:50does it lead to a cliff?
00:13:54Look, we have many
00:13:57and diverse issues in our economy.
00:14:00We have the energy issue, we have fuel smuggling,
00:14:04and imbalances, and
00:14:07so on and so forth. But in economics, we say "price,"
00:14:11or the price of governance. Then it shows
00:14:15itself in inflation. That is, if governance
00:14:17is good, it shows itself in inflation. If it's bad, it also shows itself
00:14:21in inflation. Economic governance
00:14:25is the root cause of all these issues. In our energy discussions,
00:14:28in all discussions about imbalances and so on,
00:14:31it's inflation. That is, unless you
00:14:34solve inflation in the Iranian economy, none
00:14:38of your problems will be solved. So, now if you make gasoline 87,000 tomans,
00:14:42tomorrow
00:14:42morning,
00:14:46in about 6 months, you'll have to make it 160,000 tomans
00:14:50again, because the root cause, inflation, has not disappeared. You
00:14:53have an inflation engine. Now, what is the reason
00:14:57for inflation in Iran? The reason for inflation
00:15:00in Iran is a series of structural issues. A
00:15:04part of it is sanctions. A
00:15:06part of it is global
00:15:09inflation. I give these
00:15:1230% weight. 70% of our inflation
00:15:16is the unauthorized increase in the monetary
00:15:20base and liquidity.
00:15:23And 50 to 60% (between
00:15:2740 and 60%) of that increase in the monetary base is due to
00:15:29banks. That is, look, our government now,
00:15:33in all past governments, you
00:15:36remember, right? There was one of the ministers
00:15:40who increased salaries by 50%. They fired him,
00:15:43didn't they? Yes. They fired him. He was the Minister of Labor
00:15:46under Raisi. Yes. They fired him because he wanted to
00:15:50increase salaries so much, saying it would cause inflation. Whereas, if you compare
00:15:53the amount of liquidity increase due to salary increases or food
00:15:57coupons or other issues with
00:16:00the liquidity that banks are creating due to imbalance
00:16:04and the main factors of those events,
00:16:11it's just a drop in the ocean. That is, even if you increase
00:16:15salaries by 100%, how are banks increasing
00:16:18liquidity? A bank is on the verge of bankruptcy.
00:16:22When this happens in the world, for example, in Britain,
00:16:26suddenly the British government closes seven banks, which it has done.
00:16:29It happened in Britain in history. You can search and see. It was a world
00:16:33war. Yes. Or in America, during the 2008
00:16:37crisis, they tell bankrupt banks in the morning, "Go hold a liquidation meeting." They close the bank.
00:16:41The bank, sir, is an economic institution. It's closed. You invested
00:16:45here. You made a mistake. We don't close it, do we? What do we do?
00:16:48We take money from our pockets,
00:16:52we create inflation by printing money, we go and cover
00:16:56the bank's imbalance. We print money not for
00:17:00people's situation, but to protect the bank. Exactly.
00:17:03Sometimes I print money for someone who can't buy
00:17:07even a kilo of meat in a year. I give them meat, which doesn't even raise inflation
00:17:11much because it doesn't manipulate the monetary base significantly.
00:17:14In fact, it might even boost production because it strengthens domestic production,
00:17:18and demand for it increases. I create money, create inflation,
00:17:22and bring inflation to people's
00:17:24tables so that those corrupt
00:17:27economic oligarchs' banks don't go
00:17:31bankrupt. Exactly, so their banks don't go bankrupt.
00:17:34So, what does this have to do with sanctions and the dichotomy of sanctions and the dichotomy
00:17:38of livelihood? What do I know? They probably say
00:17:42this bank is investing in some sensitive area, they say things like that.
00:17:46We should probably protect it. I'll give you a benchmark now, an
00:17:49example: Argentina,
00:17:51Egypt, Turkey,
00:17:54and
00:17:57Poland and Korea
00:18:00are countries that not only have good relations with America,
00:18:04but some are even colonies of America and Israel. Argentina is the second largest Jewish
00:18:07population in the world, after Israel. That is, Jews have a strong influence
00:18:11there. Their current president, who has a very close relationship with Netanyahu,
00:18:15Javier Milei, Argentina, has the worst economic situation in the world.
00:18:18The interest rate is around 80,
00:18:22and inflation is triple digits.
00:18:24Well, as a result,
00:18:28the condition
00:18:30for improving people's livelihood has absolutely no relation to this.
00:18:34Yes, I'm not saying sanctions are ineffective. Sanctions
00:18:38are a catalyst for our problems. That is, we
00:18:41have strange problems in
00:18:43our economy that if we sell oil
00:18:47and its money comes in, we can use the Dutch
00:18:50Disease mechanism to sweep those
00:18:54problems under the rug for now. But they won't be resolved
00:18:58by that. Exactly like what happened in 1973 after
00:19:01the oil shock of 1973 in Iran. As soon as that oil money is gone, we suddenly
00:19:05face a surge in inflation. Towards the end of Mohammad Reza
00:19:09Pahlavi's era, our inflation reached 245%, whereas
00:19:13before, it was always below 5-6%. Why? Because that petrodollar
00:19:16was no longer there, that oil money was no longer there to cover the problems. Well,
00:19:20here it's exactly the same. Sir, you have a terrible economic
00:19:23governance based on conflicting
00:19:26interests with the people, which is
00:19:29creating liquidity and inflation.
00:19:32Inflation whose benefit also doesn't go to
00:19:35the people. That is, the money you print, you don't use to increase salaries,
00:19:39you don't give goods to the people. If we do this, you say that
00:19:43compared to the inflation that exists to protect
00:19:46these financial institutions, this is nothing. So, if we
00:19:49print money, did I understand correctly? If we print money, I'll tell you the numbers
00:19:53and figures. In the crisis of 2017,
00:19:57wasn't it? The crisis of financial and credit institutions, where several of them were dissolved.
00:20:00Yes, in that year, our monetary base suddenly increased
00:20:04by 17%. It's a disaster, 17%.
00:20:07A monetary base that later led to terrible
00:20:11inflationary shocks. Why? The government came and printed money
00:20:15and sorted out those financial and credit institutions.
00:20:18Or, for example, a bank that recently entered
00:20:22the merger process with Bank Melli. Well, that wasn't liquidation.
00:20:25They opened it again within the national assets.
00:20:29Well, the question is, if we don't do this, in that same
00:20:32issue, I remember Mr. Rouhani,
00:20:36despite all the criticisms and his faults, said something like, "Someone who invested
00:20:40where they shouldn't have, and then the government has to pay their money,"
00:20:43which actually comes from the pockets of all the people, not the government. It was a reality
00:20:47here. The point is that, but the problem is,
00:20:51someone who looks at it says, for example, if you want to touch imbalanced banks,
00:20:54which, God bless, are not just one or two, it will create a security problem.
00:20:57In the literature of policy science, we have a term
00:21:01that says, "You don't have cost-free policy-making."
00:21:04You ultimately, every decision you
00:21:08make or don't make, some people get happy, some people get upset.
00:21:11You have to see where the national interest
00:21:14of the majority lies in which policy. Yes,
00:21:18maybe those 10% on the street,
00:21:21"Fereshteh ba Bala," will be upset by this policy if a bank goes bankrupt
00:21:25or is liquidated. But what about the people? What about
00:21:28the other 90% who have to pay the cost of that inflation? Ayandeh
00:21:32Bank. Excuse me, money was not only
00:21:36from Elahieh upwards. No, I'm talking about the majority.
00:21:39Small depositors are not a big number, or small
00:22:29these numbers and figures. Argentina, Egypt,
00:22:33Turkey, Poland. How many of these are we
00:22:37besieged by? We are actually under siege, blocked, as
00:22:41they say. They've physically stopped my oil
00:22:44exports. They claim that I don't know, they claim that these 30 million,
00:22:48208 million, if it's more, there's no oil on the water to sell, and so on.
00:22:51My point is that, okay, you're saying
00:22:54that 70% of economic issues, for example, relate to domestic
00:22:58matters, and 30% are other issues. But the issue
00:23:01of siege, the issue of the maximum economic pressure campaign that America
00:23:05has launched. Now, please tell us, considering the discussion
00:23:09you mentioned at the beginning of your remarks, that America's situation
00:23:12has reached this point of resilience, and we also have a situation
00:23:16here. In this situation, if, for example,
00:23:23they continue very firmly, and tension remains
00:23:27high, how do you present your arguments
00:23:31in this situation? First, a new inflation should not be imposed
00:23:35on the people. That is, that money-printing engine must be shut down.
00:23:38The government should not pay for the banks' imbalances.
00:23:41This is the most important action that must be taken.
00:23:45Immediately, a very strict policy towards imbalanced
00:23:48banks, merging and dissolving them, so that
00:23:52at least we don't create inflation for ourselves. We have the inflation
00:23:55of siege, we have the inflation of cost pressure.
00:23:59Let's not create monetary inflation for ourselves from
00:24:03printing money to resolve bank imbalances.
00:24:06Second, Mr. Razavi, a country under siege
00:24:09that doesn't have foreign currency, how are 500-billion-rial and 400-billion-rial Lexus cars
00:24:13imported? How is foreign currency allocated for this? These countries'
00:24:16economy is a war economy.
00:24:20This is a war economy. If it's foreign currency, how are these things coming in?
00:24:24How are all these luxury goods that you see
00:24:27in the city and elsewhere coming in? With what
00:24:30foreign currency are they coming in? In what way are they being imported?
00:24:49that you are dealing with a mechanism inside
00:24:52the country where that bureaucratic
00:24:55system simply doesn't allow
00:24:59your knots to be untied. As you said, you know that
00:25:02in these two months of 1405,
00:25:06۱۴۰۵
00:25:09our, excuse me, at the end
00:25:12of 1404 and then 1405, compared
00:25:16to 1404, our economic growth has gone up.
00:25:20Why? Because practically many government managers were not working. I emphasize
00:25:24again, I'm not talking about this government. What happens is that the government manager facilitates
00:25:27affairs. Who was it? An exporter gave an interview
00:25:31a while ago, saying, "I came from China to the Khorasan border in two
00:25:35weeks. I was in customs for three weeks." This was Mr. Laylaz.
00:25:39Well, he said, "I waited behind our own customs for three weeks." "I came there in two weeks."
00:25:42I passed the siege. Yes, I passed the siege and stayed in customs for a week.
00:25:46Well, what is my point? My point is that, yes,
00:25:50there is a siege, and the siege still exists. I also said what the solution to the siege is.
00:25:53That is, as he puts pressure on us, we must
00:25:57also apply our pressure. But people should be sure that the economy...
00:26:01Look, I'll give a few examples.
00:26:32The automotive industry, you might not believe it, the top 10 countries in the world,
00:26:35in terms of infrastructure, meaning the machinery our car manufacturers
00:26:39have, are capable of producing the latest cars in the world.
00:26:43Now, the fact that they don't produce them is due to management technology and so on.
00:26:47Well, and other issues. I want to tell
00:26:50you that Iran has so much capacity, so many
00:26:54resources, that firstly, it will never experience hyperinflation.
00:26:58Secondly, all ways
00:27:01of siege are manageable.
00:27:26With economic policy reforms, by
00:27:28prioritizing the interests of 99%,
00:27:33this is easily solvable, and on the other hand, we see America's situation as very
00:27:36sensitive. Then, look, even before, we have to break that,
00:27:40but from the domestic discussion,
00:27:44I mean, I want to illustrate this: if people's situation
00:27:47is bad, if we have inflation, if things are bad,
00:27:51and this inflation is also the cause of all other issues,
00:27:55what is the reason? The reason is that our
00:27:58economic management itself has flaws. That is, if I want to assign weight
00:28:02with numbers and figures,
00:28:05more than two-thirds of your problems can be
00:28:09solved if you fix your economic management model. One minute.
00:28:12How can we end the war? America should give up
00:28:16hope that there are some people in Iran who want to surrender,
00:28:19and people's livelihood must be covered,
00:28:22not with money. The government must provide
00:28:26all Iranian people with
00:28:29their UBI or at least
00:28:32their daily caloric needs through goods, not
00:28:36goods that lose value against inflation every day.
00:28:45we have based on what the oil price was,
00:28:49that 20 billion dollars is nothing, we have a little
00:28:52more. We sold this
00:28:55much more expensively. Even if we sell for less, it was not less, we have rejected it from
00:28:59the blockade. We have been discussing this for a month now and until the end of the year and more.
00:29:32The stormy, most enduring battlements
00:29:35of history. The Citadel and the Mosque of Ali Shah
00:29:38are the identity of the resistance
00:29:40of Azerbaijan and the steadfastness of the Iranian
00:29:44nation against oppressors and
00:29:47aggressors. The fortress of the defenders of Iran and
00:29:50the arena of the Mujahideen of the Constitutional Revolution and today
00:29:54this proud wounded in the ages
00:29:57is observing the national event of Iran,
00:30:01East Azerbaijan. Iran. The Citadel
00:30:04of Tabriz, its head in the sky, its foot in
00:30:08the soil of Iran. Iran,
00:30:11East Azerbaijan, Iran.
00:30:31Hello. Welcome to the 2:30 news from the News Channel.
00:30:35The amount of ration cards will increase in mid-October.
00:30:38The government spokesman has given this news and said that the amount of
00:30:42ration cards for vulnerable groups will increase
00:30:45and it is not related to the payment of subsidies and other
00:30:49livelihood aid from the government. Ms. Mohajerani also
00:30:52said that the approved resolution of the share of gasoline
00:30:56for new cars over one billion will also be discussed.