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00:00:00Eulogies for the polls, this is the Yom Kippur of Yom
00:00:03Kippur. For months,
00:00:06we became addicted to the polls, even though we knew, we knew
00:00:09we would be disappointed, after all, the gaps between the channels were so
00:00:13big, someone had to be wrong.
00:00:16Someone, almost everyone missed in one way or
00:00:19another, Gantz is a straight party, not the largest party,
00:00:23and after them is the Likud with Netanyahu of course, 20
00:00:26seats. The party of Yoaz Hendel and Zaliha, four
00:00:30in our last
00:00:32seats pass the electoral threshold and you'll see this, Amcha Israel
00:00:37poll here passes the electoral threshold with four
00:00:40seats. The coalition 50 seats weakens
00:00:43by one seat, the opposition as mentioned strengthens by one seat, receives
00:00:4756 seats, the Arab parties
00:00:5014 seats. Pay attention, the right-wing bloc,
00:00:53five days to the elections with
00:00:5562 seats, the left-wing bloc with 44.
00:01:00And the Arab parties, which are of course part of the left-wing bloc and the opposition
00:01:04with 14 seats, of course the Arab
00:01:08parties are not part of the bloc just like that.
00:01:11Before the elections, the last polls before the elections,
00:01:14most of them had no clear preference for one
00:01:17of the blocs, but they completely indicated
00:01:20the opposite trend.
00:01:24So how is it that everyone was wrong? These elections were also about
00:01:27the pollsters and they shattered the lie of Ashkar. This is not just
00:01:30Yom Kippur for most pollsters, there was a complete collapse of
00:01:34the consciousness industry that lasted for years in the studios.
00:01:38Hakeem definitions. Wait, when you poll
00:01:41500, 600 thousand Israelis in a poll, there's
00:01:45no choice, you have to make assumptions to learn based on them what
00:01:4810 million Israelis think. This
00:01:52of course doesn't explain how it turned out that in channels critical of the government, the polls
00:01:55showed a loss, in channels supporting it, the polls showed a majority.
00:01:59Yes. Maybe that's what's called the sampling error margin.
00:02:03Wait, did you see how much they insisted on
00:02:06the results? Look at the similarity between the last
00:02:09poll before the elections and the exit poll on election
00:02:13night itself. And here's the bloc map, according to this last
00:02:16poll before the elections, the opposition 54
00:02:19seats, the coalition, 50 seats, the Arab
00:02:23parties with 16 for the opposition bloc
00:02:2653 seats, the coalition bloc.
00:02:3050 seats, the Arab parties,
00:02:3317 seats, this is how the bloc map looks,
00:02:36the coalition, 50 seats, the opposition, 56
00:02:39seats, and the full picture in the bloc
00:02:42picture, 52 for the Eisenkot bloc, 50 for the
00:02:46Netanyahu bloc, the Eisenkot bloc is the largest bloc also in the last poll,
00:02:4952 seats, against which stands the
00:02:52Netanyahu bloc with 50 seats, and this is the
00:02:56bloc map, the Eisenkot bloc with 53
00:03:00seats, and the Netanyahu bloc with only 50
00:03:03seats. We checked for the last time, the right-wing bloc
00:03:06with 62 seats, the left-wing bloc with
00:03:1044 seats. According to the exit poll of Channel
00:03:1314 news, this is what the seats map looks like, the
00:03:17right-wing bloc with 60 seats, the left-wing bloc
00:03:21with 43. This is almost an open miracle, the poll
00:03:24that every channel presented to us for months long, certainly the last poll before
00:03:28the elections, tasted. Sometimes it was identical to the exit poll of
00:03:32that channel on election night. Yes, and this is especially
00:03:36interesting when you know the true results.
00:03:40Wait, I think we made a bit of a mess, so let's just say, this
00:03:44is what we're seeing right now, and it's certainly a different picture from what we saw, and this
00:03:47is the bloc map that's changing because of this update, it's
00:03:51a very different picture from what we saw in the polls, in the polls the Likud
00:03:54was much weaker. The true results of the elections after counting
00:03:58100% of the votes. The Likud receives 27
00:04:01seats, finally and officially, Hendel and Zaliha,
00:04:04Ofer Winter do not pass the
00:04:07electoral threshold, the Joint List 11, Ra'am of Mansour
00:04:11Abbas, strengthened to eight seats.
00:04:14It turned out a bit different from what they showed us for months,
00:04:18or not, because there were those who saw in the event more of a Six-Day
00:04:22War victory than a Yom Kippur surprise. Pay attention to what
00:04:25happened on Channel
00:04:2812, some pollster.
00:05:00For example, Yisrael Beiteinu, which is hovering
00:05:03around the electoral threshold with only four
00:05:06seats, which at the end of this evening
00:05:08maybe Lieberman after many years.
00:05:13In the true results, our Momo Filber will be much
00:05:16more correct. In the last poll before the elections on Channel 14, Lieberman
00:05:20was predicted five seats, in the exit poll on election
00:05:23night, four, and after
00:05:26midnight they increased it. Lieberman received on Channel
00:05:2911 eight seats, on Channel 12 nine seats,
00:05:32and on Channel 13 seven seats. The right-wing bloc
00:05:35with 62
00:05:38seats. Avigdor Lieberman's party, Israel.
00:05:42Our party does not pass the electoral threshold, now we can
00:05:46say it's official, Shlomo, he doesn't pass, he doesn't even reach
00:05:493%. Lieberman with the number zero hovering above
00:05:53his head, this is truly an unprecedented
00:05:56event, when the true data started flowing, it was already official,
00:05:59Lieberman doesn't pass, unprecedented and also
00:06:03didn't happen, yes, we found out later tonight, regarding Lieberman, he
00:06:07passes the electoral threshold, it's not
00:06:09the 7-8 they gave him on the other channels, but he will probably be at least
00:06:13four, maybe five, we are faithful to the numbers,
00:06:17faithful to accuracy, so right now we're returning it to
00:06:2060-60, faithful to accuracy,
00:06:2460-60, no,
00:06:2767-53 and Lieberman completely
00:06:30seven as others gave, or as Channel
00:06:3314 calls it, your great victory
00:06:36in the whole exit poll story when the other channels essentially
00:06:40straightened up, reduced and ego
00:06:43and that, uh, I don't know, until this moment none of them
00:06:47even wrote not even a small
00:06:50apology, this guy is worth a Netflix series, this whole doctrine
00:06:54that I actually developed, I wrote about
00:06:56the book, run to buy, is there
00:07:00any instruction there to give preference first to your former partner
00:07:03who was more right than you? Sorry, in the last
00:07:07mandate polls published before the elections, the one who deviated the least from the number
00:07:11of mandates received by each party was pollster
00:07:14Tzuriel Sharon on Channel i24, Channel
00:07:1715. He is a former partner of Shlomo Filber,
00:07:21who immediately after him in terms of achievement
00:07:23from the true results, Maagar Mochot Institute
00:07:27on Channel 16. Now this is very misleading,
00:07:31in the broader picture, which is perhaps even more important, of bloc
00:07:34distribution, who is most accurate? Here it
00:07:37gets complicated. Filber predicted that Netanyahu's bloc
00:07:41would win 62 seats, compared
00:07:44to 53 it actually received. That is, in predicting the relative
00:07:47strength between Netanyahu's supporters and opponents in the next Knesset, Channel
00:07:5114 was correct in identifying the trend, but was
00:07:54the furthest in numbers. The closest
00:07:57in the bloc picture was precisely that Channel 16, the Maagar Mochot Institute, which predicted
00:08:0152 seats for Netanyahu's
00:08:04bloc and 68
00:08:06for his opponents. Yes, on the other hand, third,
00:08:10maybe already fourth, according to what parameters we determine
00:08:14that a poll was accurate. Channels 14
00:08:17and i24 were the only ones who told us
00:08:20in advance that the Likud would be the largest
00:08:24party by a margin. And also the only ones who bet that the
00:08:27Eisenkot bloc would get less than 50 seats, less than the
00:08:30Netanyahu bloc, excluding the Arabs.
00:08:33Yes, I said, they bet, because I'm
00:08:37going to quote now precisely the one who impressed? The pollster who impressed
00:08:40Tzuriel Sharon who explained. In Haaretz. Polls are
00:08:44supposedly an event for statisticians, but
00:08:47when it comes to mandate polls, which are perhaps the most complex
00:08:50in Israel, it's already a sociological event.
00:08:54It requires understanding social codes, the DNA
00:08:57of your target audience, how the motivation
00:09:00to vote works, things related to identities, to very
00:09:04emotional matters and to gut feelings. He said
00:09:08gut feelings. Okay, conclusions
00:09:11for next time. Everything we analyzed based on the polls over
00:09:15time doesn't ultimately align with reality. The essential
00:09:19question is, will it change anything? If there
00:09:22were no polls, it would be very difficult to fill the time we
00:09:26filled in recent months,
00:09:29the public also demands it, and the public also goes to fortune
00:09:32tellers and coffee readers.
00:09:35Right, maybe it's time we treat them
00:09:39accordingly.
00:09:44What do you do when you see a video that seems far-fetched? Do you just
00:09:48move on? No! We saw that small
00:09:51fakes can cause great damage right now
00:09:54in the elections. We'll see more in a moment, but first let's remember that if
00:09:58you come across a dramatic,
00:10:00exaggerated picture or video, be suspicious, be on the
00:10:04other side, and send it to our fake machine, 050
00:10:079395501,
00:10:10and there it will be checked if it was made.
00:10:12with artificial intelligence. For example, this picture,
00:10:16which Prime Minister Netanyahu shared on election day, shows a long
00:10:20line of voters at a polling station in Sakhnin. This picture was shared
00:10:23on many accounts. And as the fake machine found,
00:10:27it was made using artificial intelligence, it's a fake. It's a shame the Prime Minister
00:10:31didn't send it to the fake machine first.
00:10:34Well, even afterwards he doesn't send it, and after we checked, the
00:10:38post is still up on his page. Also on election
00:10:41day, a popular Telegram page called Abu Ali Express with a post
00:10:44that reached over 100,000 views. The Joint
00:10:47List, an Israeli minister confiscated all polling stations in the settlement of Hararah
00:10:51in the Negev, preventing further voting. Wow,
00:10:54fake. The police did not confiscate the polling stations, they did
00:10:58us a favor, heavy rains that fell caused a power outage
00:11:01for public safety and until emergency lighting, prepared in advance, was activated,
00:11:05voters were asked to wait less than 10 minutes. Despite the difficult conditions,
00:11:09voting continued as usual. Good, the Joint
00:11:12List also told us, no statement was issued on their behalf, it's a shame
00:11:15that the fake machine doesn't check people
00:11:18talking yet, but that's in the future, we're on it. One
00:11:22more.
00:11:26The day after the elections, Prime Minister Netanyahu shared this video
00:11:30He wrote last night that at an event of
00:11:34the Joint List, they sang "Biladi, Biladi" from the official Palestinian
00:11:38anthem, and he quotes, "Palestine is my home,
00:11:41the land of my victory, Palestine is my revenge, and the land of steadfast
00:11:45endurance." These are the words of the Palestinian anthem, and this
00:11:49is what they sing. No, no, that's
00:11:52what they sing. Ahmed Tibi was the first to do it from the other
00:11:56side. This "Biladi, Biladi" that they sang in the Joint List
00:11:59is a song from Hadash. Did someone not translate
00:12:02it correctly for you? Correct, someone didn't translate
00:12:05it correctly, I wonder how that happened. We checked with
00:12:09our friend, from the other side in Arabic, we won't bother you with all the details, but
00:12:12Palestine is my home, it is my revenge and so on, what Netanyahu quoted was not
00:12:16said there. These are some of the words in the Palestinian
00:12:19anthem, but the members of the Joint List actually sang the anthem of
00:12:23the Hadash movement, as
00:12:25the fake machine says.
00:12:29Send a file, video or image to our WhatsApp number
00:12:32050 9395501.
00:12:35This barcode will quickly take you to the number in the chat.
00:12:39The engine will answer if the video or important image has indeed been treated
00:12:43with artificial intelligence. Continue to check with all
00:12:47the means at your disposal before spreading it.
00:12:50That's it, these are the gaps. This time they are available online. Always
00:12:53watch, share. Spread it, what's so complicated
00:12:57about that?
00:13:00A few weeks ago, journalist Shlomi Eldar publishes the
00:13:04biggest scoop of his life. On the very
00:13:07same day, he discovers that the love of his life
00:13:11is over. A rare conversation, in its honesty, about
00:13:15love and betrayal, about truth and the poison
00:13:18machine, about the warning given by the President of the Emirates
00:13:21to Netanyahu, and also about how to get up
00:13:25from the lowest point, and you forgot that on the way there was also
00:13:28cancer, but it ended with good news. Saturday night
00:13:32at a meeting.
00:13:35This is the best in the country.
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00:13:53Many ask me, Dov Ela. How at your advanced age
00:13:56of 47 do you still maintain vitality? What is
00:14:00turmeric, Botox, kombucha for good health?
00:14:03A good mood. The doctor prescribed me Felix three times a week,
00:14:07and Felix is not a pill, it's a friend.
00:14:10And twice a week, Doris and Jacob. Hey, wait
00:14:13guys, let me get a word in. They keep me healthy in body and soul.
00:14:17I have to go, they're waiting for me there too.
00:14:19Account. Hey, what's
00:14:22up?
00:14:25Senior citizens, social connections are a preventative medicine that helps keep
00:14:29you vital in body and soul. For information and a variety
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