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00:01:24institution could make a for next uh AI
00:01:27industry insiders are warning the rise in the
00:01:31uh intelligence of AI models is
00:01:34risk that is growing too much. As you can see, I've been joined by Jonathan Richard
00:01:38Schwortz. He's the visiting professor at
00:01:40primarily worked with the US labs, and in Imperial, head of AI research at Thompson Righters Foundation. Very good
00:01:43morning to you. Thanks so much for joining us. Good morning. Um, I guess to set
00:01:47this up, and in the last sort of 24 hours or so, um, number
00:01:51of threads on X have gone viral, one in particular
00:01:54from a former AI safety worker at both ap
00:01:58and anthropic that that raised the... question said that the chance
00:02:01AI one day could kill us all was greater than 10%,
00:02:05right? Is that assessment you agree with? Um, I think on sort of
00:02:09extinction, I'm perhaps a little bit more sort of cautious about my
00:02:12predictions, but I think what is almost certain now is that we have a drastic reshift of power in
00:02:16society. I think that sort of frontier labs have an immense
00:02:19opportunity to sort of reshift economic power, social power,
00:02:23political power, scientific power, even infrastructure power, and I think it's something that we
00:02:27should very seriously think about a society. Um, I guess. One of the
00:02:30other central things that's come out in the last 24 hours was the the
00:02:33suggestion that bosses at all of the big AI
00:02:37companies, none in particular
00:02:40um are more aware of the risks than they make public. Is that
00:02:43something that that you think could be true? Um, I think of
00:02:47course all insiders within those
00:02:4960 applications, and labs probably have have sort of about a three to six months horizon of roughly
00:02:53where development is headed. I think that some of the sort of recent
00:02:56developments we have on model development, especially a sort
00:02:59say that this is normal? This is normal in in of new called um sort of a cursive self-improvement where models
00:03:03kind of just become better and better over time, um, is something
00:03:06that uh seems to have started to take off and seems to be something that there's a lot of
00:03:10energy in and uh so the bosses, but
00:03:13also really all researchers with these labs will have a unique insight that isn't necessarily
00:03:16public yet. Is there a concern throughout the ranks
00:03:20of employees that this is going too fast too
00:03:23quickly and and and people have felt they can't speak up? I think that's
00:03:26fair to say, and it's not just the employees. I mean, I have been in this field for over 10
00:03:30years, and this year has been one of the most of astonishing amounts of progress, both
00:03:34in terms of the model's capabilities and how fast they're being released. I think the
00:03:39boils over, then that's how we got to that field is becoming more diverse, which is important because it's not sufficient for us to just look
00:03:41at open air and the tropic, there's a huge amount of open-weight models that are being
00:03:45released that are just almost as capable and really anybody could
00:03:48download them, you and me, and increasingly they can be run on consumer
00:03:52hardware, and so there is a sense in which uh you
00:03:55know the the sort of safety and security issues have been more serious than ever before.
00:03:59Um, clear. Really all of these companies like in
00:04:01any new technology want to want to
00:04:05win, want to get there first and innovate fastest. If
00:04:08we only cared about profit, which clearly we
00:04:11don't, but if we only cared about profit, is it fair to say
00:04:15in this technology more than any others, that it's going to be winner takes all or
00:04:19winner takes most? Is there that sort of legitimate
00:04:22incentive for them to put the the foot to the
00:04:25floor to try and be first, because if they don't then
00:04:29somebody else will... all of their lunch? I mean, that's certainly how they're operating, right? I think
00:04:33there's perhaps a space for more kind of pluralistic world in the AI space, but the the frontier labs
00:04:37are operating in this kind of speed, right? And it's really kind of prisoner's dilemma's
00:04:40kind of situation where the sort of uh self-interest of these
00:04:44firms is to move as fast as they possibly can, and unless there's some
00:04:47sort of external arbiter, we're in a situation where they just keep raising,
00:04:51right? And the sort of voluntary agreements that people have tried to put in place haven't really been
00:04:55able to prevent that or slow things down, because I guess the follow-on question
00:04:59for that, which if there is that prize for someone at the end of it
00:05:02is when you then get onto the nationalistic debate,
00:05:06which is if you don't allow the, let's
00:05:09narrow it down to two countries for argument's sake, the... US
00:05:12companies, one of them at least to be the winner, then the alternative
00:05:16could be a Chinese company being the winner. Is that a fair way of looking at it? Um, I
00:05:20would say that a lot of people, including a lot of my own academic work, is
00:05:24trying to kind of get away from that dynamic, right? There's a huge amount of energy and
00:05:27effort about the sort of idea of sovereign AI, nation, states
00:05:31institutions trying to develop their own models and sort of get away from this dynamic and being
00:05:35fully reliant on others. In this country and other middle powers there's a lot of interesting
00:05:39work being done, so I don't think we're in a situation where it's inevitable that...
00:05:42sort of either Chinese or or US labs are dominating and everybody else is left behind. I
00:05:46think there are things that can be done, but the opportunity window is shrinking. I
00:05:51regulator imposed rules or restrictions
00:05:55that slow down the US's ability to innovate, would
00:05:59that prisoner's dilemma risk still apply that China might not do the
00:06:02same? Well, I mean, that's the conversation people are having, right? Frankly,
00:06:06uh, sort of, if regulation is is only applied in a certain jurisdiction or a certain
00:06:10country, uh, it's it's sort of. opportunity for others to kind
00:06:13of catch up or even exceed the ability. So really, I think what's needed is a sort
00:06:17of multilateral international sort of way of
00:06:20of of of coordinating this. Um, we do have an AI safety
00:06:24institute here in the UK. I mean many people say it's one of the world leaders,
00:06:28but I guess are we now at a point where it's wishful
00:06:31thinking to to expect that that UK-based
00:06:36difference in this? Yeah, I mean AC, the AI security institute
00:06:40has been incredibly influential and has really seen as one of the world class institutes in this
00:06:44space. But I do think that we're in a position where it's no longer clear if we can fully
00:06:47rely on this voluntary excess, right? I think it's also fair to say that AC has
00:06:53a world where more and more models are being provided by more and more institutions,
00:06:56it's not necessarily clear whether one single institution can can completely scale,
00:07:00so I do think we need something that goes beyond a single kind of country's institution, and
00:07:04something like in a more multilateral international basis would certainly be very
00:07:07valuable. Bring us back to where we started and and the scale of the
00:07:11risk that you you think that as
00:07:14a society face from AI and if
00:07:18it's not 10% chance of total wipe out, is it
00:07:21underpriced in the way that we talk about it in terms of
00:07:25significant risks to society? Yeah, I mean I personally
00:07:28think that we are um, I think this 10% figure is something that's very difficult
00:07:32to sort of assess, right? It's more like a gut feeling than a proper sort of populistic
00:07:35measure, but I do imagine that the kind of systematic risks like the
00:07:39power I describe, the sort of economic impacts and so on, those are almost
00:07:42certain to be happening. I mean, there's already a sort of situation where arguably AI
00:07:46developers are are making sort of large judgments on what human values
00:07:49are, uh, sort of decisions that usually happen throughout the political process, right? And
00:07:53this is already happening and it's kind of troubling that people like me or my
00:07:56colleagues get to decide what model should be saying on sort of some of the most contested issues in the
00:08:00world, right? And sometimes I believe that the extinction debate is important,
00:08:04but there's lots of other kind of debates here that are kind of falling a little bit by the wayside.
00:08:08Um, what if people
00:08:12a... process of technological
00:08:14innovation
00:08:16and law makers and regulators will catch
00:08:20up and there'll always be a sort of balance that that evolves over
00:08:24time. Yeah, I would I would say that's probably mistaken. I mean, if we look at past
00:08:27technologies, comparison, people like to make the industrial revolution,
00:08:31that sort of ran over 80 years in in a limited number of sectors and
00:08:34already there the consequences were quite dire for many people until
00:08:38some of the benefits were to be seen. Think of the internet, sort of more recent
00:08:42example. A lot of the predictions of how things would turn out ended up being true. I
00:08:45think the level of uncertainty and the scale and speed of things is just different this time.
00:08:49Um, Jonathan, thanks so much for joining us. We really appreciate it. Jonathan Richard
00:08:53Schwartz from Imperial.
00:14:38Welcome to another edition of Scene,
00:14:41in the next few minutes we will talk about Balet Fest,
00:14:44then about the BH Drama Festival Zenica, but also about the
00:14:48Pitchwise Festival, which brings female art and the fight for gender
00:14:52equality through numerous programs. I am Adrijana Gavrić,
00:14:55once again, welcome to
00:14:57Scene.
00:15:01From September 18th to 26th,
00:15:04the 17th Ballet Fest Sarajevo will be held. The festival has
00:15:08grown over the years into a significant meeting place for
00:15:11domestic and international artists. This year's
00:15:15program brings performances, exhibitions, workshops and
00:15:18discussions dedicated to ballet and dance art. The audience
00:15:22can expect various dance expressions from contemporary
00:15:25dance to ballet classics. Special
00:15:28attention will be paid to artists who have pushed the boundaries of dance
00:15:32art with their work. We have three four
00:15:35segments in our festival, which are, of course, inevitable performances,
00:15:39exhibitions, discussions, workshops.
00:15:43The performances this year are truly for
00:15:45lovers of those who like contemporary expression. The leaders
00:15:49in contemporary ballet expression are,
00:15:53of course, one company with which contact has been
00:15:56traditionally established and continues, Bitef Dance
00:16:00Company with a very important and
00:16:03interesting play called "Unclean
00:16:06Blood".
00:16:09The 25th BH Drama Festival Zenica will be held from
00:16:13September 14th to 20th at the Bosnian National
00:16:16Theater Zenica. There are seven plays in the competition
00:16:20program. The festival opens with the National Theater Mostar
00:16:23with the play "Mayor or This is a play about Mujaga
00:16:27Komadina". And there are also Sartr with plays for
00:16:30"Life Entire" and "Basement". Chamber Theater 55 "You
00:16:34Love My Soul". National Theater Sarajevo "On a Letter".
00:16:38and from Serbia the regime of healing and Gorocvet
00:16:41all seven plays which the selector
00:16:45uh selected in April
00:16:48will appear and will be performed
00:16:51uh within the 25th Festival of Bosnian-Herzegovinian Drama. One
00:16:55play for organizational reasons, the play of
00:16:58Chamber Theater 55, "You Love My Soul"
00:17:01due to time constraints, inability to find
00:17:05an adequate date and time for the festival to be in
00:17:09continuity, will be performed in the Chamber Theater, that is, in
00:17:13its home theater on Saturday,
00:17:15September 19th, for for for the closing
00:17:19of the festival.
00:17:23In Sarajevo, the 21st Pitchwise
00:17:26Festival of Women's Art and Activism organized by the Cure
00:17:30Foundation has begun. The festival brings artistic programs, workshops,
00:17:33performances and discussions dedicated to empowering
00:17:36women, solidarity, freedom and the fight for gender
00:17:40equality. A feminist is born,
00:17:44a feminist is made, is the slogan of the 21st Pitchwise Festival
00:17:47of Women's Art and Activism, the eponymous exhibition is one of three
00:17:51installations that this year bring different artistic perspectives on
00:17:55women and society. With that slogan, the focus is actually
00:17:58placed on the fact that feminism is not something that is given, but that it
00:18:02develops over time, both in all of us, and it also develops
00:18:06and actually responds to... the challenges that society places before us.
00:18:10This year's festival is truly organized in
00:18:12a time of wars, human rights
00:18:15violations, shrinking space for the actions of activists and
00:18:19human rights defenders, shrinking space for the actions of civil
00:18:22society. The exhibition is very layered, we had more than
00:18:27um, we opened the space for 23 different
00:18:30art projects and different perspectives.
00:18:34The exhibition opens some of the typical questions. that you can
00:18:38expect at such a festival, the question of mm women's
00:18:41position in society, mm, the question of aging and
00:18:44menopause, mm, the attitude towards
00:18:47illness in our society. The exhibition "Sometimes it Boils Over", presented by
00:18:51the Furaj Mir project team
00:18:55from Prnjavor, talks about war and human suffering. The focus is on people, regardless of their
00:18:58origin, religion or nation. We constantly talked about those war
00:19:02events, about building peace and how emotions
00:19:06and everything else swelled. One of my colleagues, Adrijana, who is actually
00:19:09the main member of our team, said, oh, something always boils over,
00:19:13like, oh, it's boiling over again, but sometimes it
00:19:16topic, and we just focused on the ordinary
00:19:20civilian, more precisely the refugee, a person
00:19:23without any prefix, whether they are of this
00:19:26religion, that race, whatever national group they belong to,
00:19:30we just focused on the person in war and the individual who suffers
00:19:33and who is looking for something better and looking for peace. The third ex... Exhibition
00:19:37is dedicated to human rights defenders, women who with their
00:19:41long-term work contribute to the fight for equality
00:19:44and a dignified life. Among them is the director and co-founder
00:19:47of the Cure Foundation, Jadranka Miličević. The House of Human
00:19:50Rights Oslo, which covers which in a way coordinates
00:19:54between the Houses of Human Rights in Europe, chose from
00:19:58each House of Human Rights one of the women who is
00:20:01recognized for her long-term work, for her
00:20:04certain - I won't say
00:20:07"really" - but for the results she achieves in her daily work,
00:20:11and it's normal that it was an honor for me when they
00:20:15chose and nominated me to be among and together with
00:20:19all these other comrades. From women's personal
00:20:21experiences to stories of war and refuge, to portraits
00:20:25of human rights defenders, this year's Pitchwise brings
00:20:28different perspectives, but also a common need to speak and
00:20:31question and act. Amila Mrkonja, N1,
00:20:35Sarajevo.
00:20:39And that would be all we prepared for you today. A new gathering with
00:20:42new information is scheduled for Monday. Be well,
00:20:46goodbye!
00:26:03I am Adrijana Gavrić, you are watching N1.
00:26:38From tomorrow, a significantly more pleasant temperature in almost all
00:26:42areas, around 25 degrees. A cloudy system
00:26:45from the north has enveloped our country, bringing precipitation and
00:26:49a drop in temperature. From tomorrow, we expect the temperature to be
00:26:52within the average for the last decade of the calendar
00:26:56summer. On Saturday, the weather will be variable cloudy in
00:26:59central, southern and eastern regions with rain or local
00:27:02thunderstorms. Precipitation will stop by the end of the day,
00:27:06clearing is expected. A light to moderate northern
00:27:10wind will blow, minimum temperature in Bosnia up to 15 degrees, in
00:27:14the south up to 21, maximum from 21
00:27:17to 30 degrees. From Sunday, temperatures will be within
00:27:21the average for this time of year, from 23 to 30
00:27:25degrees, periods of sunny and cloudy
00:27:28weather will decrease, and only occasionally will there be conditions for transient showers.
00:27:48to point out facts and reveal what is behind political and social
00:27:52events is our daily task,
00:27:55always current, but without sensational lies. We choose
00:27:58topics important for the lives of citizens of all of Bosnia and Herzegovina.
00:28:02Only verified and timely news and stories have
00:28:06a place in the N1 Diary. I am Marijana
00:28:09Kršo, you are watching
00:28:10N1.
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00:30:25Good evening, welcome to
00:30:26the diary,
00:30:31test voting in Bosnia and Herzegovina held with difficulties,
00:30:34voters waited for hours for ballots, the use of new
00:30:37technologies went without problems.
00:30:41We noticed where the problem is, we are very happy and satisfied that we were able
00:30:45to notice what is mm a small
00:30:48oversight, so to speak. It is about
00:30:52the delay in printing the ballots themselves and in distributing
00:30:55those ballots to polling stations.