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00:00:00will continue like this as long as this
00:00:02war with Iran continues,
00:00:06that one is a crucial war with
00:00:08Iran. To some extent, the situation in Ukraine
00:00:12is important, especially when it comes to derivatives, but as long as
00:00:15this war in Iran continues, as long as the uncertainty
00:00:19is not resolved, we will continue
00:00:23not only with high prices but also highly volatile and variable
00:00:26prices. But regardless of
00:00:30that, how the
00:00:32armed conflict in the Middle
00:00:36East will end, many
00:00:39analysts claim that the global oil market will never be
00:00:43the same after that war.
00:00:46Uh, how do you assess the market's
00:00:49ability to cope with the new
00:00:53circumstances, including the closure of the
00:00:56Strait of Hormuz and everything that
00:01:00resulted from it? We see that
00:01:03markets are turning to alternative
00:01:06routes, land transport
00:01:09of oil from Saudi Arabia, the Emirates,
00:01:13Iraq, Turkey. However, in terms of quantity,
00:01:16when we talk about transport, it is not even close to the
00:01:2020 million barrels per day, approximately
00:01:24how much was the daily traffic through
00:01:27the Strait of Hormuz, i.e., by ships.
00:01:31That's an excellent observation, uh, namely, as
00:01:34there is an old saying, the best
00:01:37solution for high prices are high prices,
00:01:41and the so-called demand destruction, meaning the destruction
00:01:44of demand through prices, and that is exactly what is happening now,
00:01:48namely, in most countries, for example, take
00:01:51Europe, uh, we don't have, there are no shortages,
00:01:55which is very good, because as long as the state does not interfere with
00:01:58prices, there will be no shortages, namely,
00:02:01all those who use oil, of course,
00:02:05derivatives, gasoline, diesel, who don't
00:02:08care that much about driving cars, they stop driving
00:02:12cars, and the amount of derivatives remains for
00:02:15those who really need to
00:02:18use them, uh, especially when it comes to industry, that is very
00:02:22difficult, of course, because prices are extremely high and
00:02:24there, my, my logic is that
00:02:28the state should never interfere when it comes to prices, and
00:02:31why? Because the market works very well, look
00:02:34now, we have had so many problems in the Middle
00:02:37East, and we had an incredible loss,
00:02:41as you said at the beginning, immediately some
00:02:4320% of all - all
00:02:47oil exports from the Middle East,
00:02:50and you still don't have
00:02:53queues at gas stations, we have enough gasoline, we have enough diesel,
00:02:56so markets are working, we should leave markets to work as they should
00:03:00and from the side of politics, we should help
00:03:03those who are struggling with
00:03:06these high prices, namely those who
00:03:10don't have those who have to control whether markets
00:03:13are exaggerating with pricing?
00:03:16No, no, absolutely not, I
00:03:19think, even actually in the last
00:03:23few months, there has been a lot of criticism that
00:03:26markets are not reflecting the gravity of the situation.
00:03:30because everyone expected that if the Middle East and
00:03:33Hormuz were closed, oil prices would go to $200 per
00:03:37barrel, let's just remember Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan and their
00:03:40somehow uh forecasts or
00:03:44predictions, uh that didn't happen, it didn't happen
00:03:48precisely because you said, markets are working now
00:03:51you have alternative alternative routes, you have the so-called
00:03:54East West pipeline in Saudi Arabia which can
00:03:58which from some two million barrels increased the flow
00:04:02to almost 6 million barrels you have
00:04:06a bypass route pipeline bypass
00:04:09around Hormuz which Abu Dhabi uses
00:04:12which goes over a million to a million and a half barrels and they
00:04:16have even increased it to 1.7 million barrels, so all these
00:04:20quantities have actually managed
00:04:22to somewhat
00:04:24alleviate the problems of the entire market,
00:04:28but all these alternatives you... spoke about trucks that
00:04:32go, they cannot operate, they cannot exist, they cannot be
00:04:35economical if there is some price control and
00:04:39you say no, prices cannot go beyond this, then all that
00:04:42would stop, then we would really have
00:04:45shortages
00:04:47um mm of derivatives, what we are witnessing at this
00:04:51moment, here oil and natural gas are the two main fuels that
00:04:54power the world, the United States is
00:04:58positioning itself. solidifying its
00:05:01position as a key supplier of natural
00:05:04liquefied natural gas, Qatar
00:05:07is solidifying its
00:05:10Chinese panels, put them on position, right as a stable partner. when concluding
00:05:14contracts, while, for example, China controls over
00:05:1880% of global production of equipment for renewable
00:05:21energy, I don't know, wind turbines, solar panels,
00:05:24batteries for energy storage, is the
00:05:27world changing in this context in terms of the positioning
00:05:30of great powers in the energy sector, are we on the way to replace
00:05:34one dependence
00:05:36in terms of oil from the Middle East and Russia
00:05:40with another dependence? From
00:05:42Chinese technology American liquefied
00:05:46natural gas, well, you said it well, actually, one thing that I
00:05:50always say, which is very important and I
00:05:53think at the beginning when you asked me, I actually didn't answer your
00:05:57question well, you said whether the oil market will
00:06:00ever be the same again, that is a wonderful question and it will
00:06:04never be the same again, it is very important to say
00:06:07that in the 70s, when we had the so-called first oil
00:06:11shock, although the first oil shock was actually in 1861,
00:06:14but that's not important now, uh,
00:06:17that oil shock was then, we had no choice, you had
00:06:21absolutely no choice, if you don't have
00:06:24gasoline, uh, you don't have any other
00:06:27alternative, today we have alternatives,
00:06:30electric cars are here, electric
00:06:33cars are relatively cheap and they are
00:06:36here to serve as some kind of alternative and China
00:06:40has made that alternative incredible. I, I will
00:06:43turn your question upside
00:06:45down a little, for example, China regularly
00:06:48imported over 10 million barrels of oil.
00:06:52In such a situation, China should have
00:06:56a lot of problems, but China does not have so many problems, well, first
00:07:00they had some strategic, huge strategic
00:07:03reserves, but second, China is intentionally politically
00:07:07and and
00:07:10economically turning towards. energy
00:07:13as a source, a source and there's no reason why we
00:07:17shouldn't do the same, we need to heavily
00:07:19subsidize the transition to electric conditions,
00:07:23especially for our conditions in Bosnia, where we are totally dependent on
00:07:26everyone, what you said about geopolitical
00:07:30circumstances, now we are turning to China for, I don't know, electric panels, for
00:07:34I don't know, my panels are made in in Spain,
00:07:37the panels in my house, therefore it's not all that, but if the Chinese
00:07:41sell cheap panels. fantastic, let's
00:07:44buy them, the difference between new
00:07:47um, new so-called clean
00:07:50energy and old, dirty energy is that when you
00:07:54buy panels from China, yes, you will probably buy panels from
00:07:57China, I don't know, inverters and batteries, but
00:08:00you will buy them once, that's it, then you have solved all
00:08:04problems, and for oil and for gas
00:08:07you buy every time, every time you have to
00:08:11refill oil, refill gas, therefore, there is a huge difference and that's
00:08:15why I am a big proponent of the transition to
00:08:19new, new types of energy, to clean types of energy,
00:08:22especially solar energy which is the absolute
00:08:26future.
00:08:28We've been talking about big economies and
00:08:32big powers fighting their energy wars all this time, but
00:08:36what is the position of small countries like Bosnia and Herzegovina
00:08:39and the countries in the region?
00:08:42Um, how do they manage with their
00:08:45modest mandatory oil reserves,
00:08:49complete dependence on imports of derivatives through
00:08:52neighboring countries, and
00:08:55do you have any advice for domestic decision-makers at this
00:08:58moment? Very difficult, very
00:09:01difficult, um, and you see the situation in Bosnia yourself,
00:09:05you see the prices at gas stations, I was in Sarajevo two
00:09:08weeks ago, and for our people, those are the same prices as
00:09:12in England, but the salaries are completely different, of course,
00:09:15however, there is no cure for that because we import all the oil, we import
00:09:19all the gas, the situation is very difficult here in Bosnia,
00:09:23especially, I am not an expert on our energy in Bosnia, however,
00:09:26we have a very difficult political situation where oil,
00:09:29where where gas, which is very important, practically comes from
00:09:33Russia, and the Croats are
00:09:36blocking us for an alternative import of gas
00:09:39across across the river, across across the Adriatic. And as
00:09:43long as that alternative is not resolved, that's a problem. So,
00:09:47the situation is difficult, we know that, what are the long-term
00:09:50solutions, we have very good examples,
00:09:54Pakistan, Pakistan has in the last
00:09:57two years invested in those cheap Chinese
00:10:00panels, they have built 17 uh
00:10:04gigawatts of solar energy, this
00:10:08solar energy that is practically not even tracked at every
00:10:11residential level, or mm also
00:10:15many smaller shops, stores, smaller manufacturers,
00:10:18they simply bought cheap
00:10:22houses, put them on shops. "Here and
00:10:26there, whoever could afford to buy batteries
00:10:29solved a lot of problems because Pakistan
00:10:32was extremely dependent on gas, however,
00:10:36this time they have reduced that problem further, Pakistan depends on
00:10:40gas, but they have drastically reduced that problem, so we should
00:10:44um look at such examples, of course, here in
00:10:47Sarajevo, for example, the climate is not ideal, for example, for
00:10:51solar energy, however, I have in
00:10:54England, too..." So the climate is not ideal for solar energy
00:10:58we mostly, mostly about 70,
00:11:0180% of all consumption in my house
00:11:05comes from solar energy and from batteries, therefore it can be
00:11:08solved and
00:11:11we have to go for electrification as much as possible, especially here
00:11:15the prices are
00:11:18relatively low for electricity, I actually
00:11:21tried to buy a so-called heating pump in Sarajevo, what is it called. heat
00:11:25pump, and
00:11:27I had two options, let me tell you a practical example, to put a
00:11:31boiler in the apartment
00:11:34and um, to put a heat pump, the quotes, I took several, for
00:11:38the boiler they were around 3, 3,200
00:11:41marks, the quote for the heat pump was
00:11:4421,000 marks, so we
00:11:47should go for that, but we still haven't solved
00:11:50the problems, so we don't have enough
00:11:53installers and the state should somehow
00:11:56step in to subsidize heat pumps, because we are solving a problem,
00:12:00we are moving away from gas, it is strategically, our, we are in
00:12:03a catastrophic situation, we get all our gas from Russia, so we
00:12:07have to run away from gas, if it really happens in
00:12:112027 that the European Union really completely
00:12:14cuts off gas supply from Russia, in Bosnia and
00:12:17Herzegovina, the Southern Gas Interconnection project, which should
00:12:21ensure diversification
00:12:24of uh transport or those supply routes of natural
00:12:28gas, is still
00:12:31a project that is being talked about but there is no
00:12:34realization of it,
00:12:37in what situation will Bosnia and Herzegovina be then in
00:12:402027 and what do you
00:12:43think about the Southern Gas Interconnection project
00:12:46and when it comes to the price of gas, later for the end
00:12:50consumer.
00:12:52First, that interconnection from the south. must absolutely be
00:12:56resolved as soon as possible, because we must have an alternative
00:13:00for the reasons you mentioned, as for Russian
00:13:03gas, we will see and and and regardless
00:13:07of the European Union, uh
00:13:10gas comes to us via Serbia,
00:13:13it could mainly continue to
00:13:16come, it comes via Hungary,
00:13:19Serbia, there is a possibility that the arrival of gas
00:13:23will continue, it is in everyone's interest, we
00:13:27are a small country in this difficult geopolitical
00:13:30situation, I think we should not deal too much with politics, but
00:13:34preserve what we must, so that gas is extremely
00:13:38important for us, because even if that southern interconnection is resolved,
00:13:41it will take at least two or three years to build
00:13:45and and when the decision is made, therefore
00:13:48uh the situation is difficult in
00:13:51the meantime everyone, that is
00:13:54from a political point of view, I would look to
00:13:58allow duty-free imports for cheap
00:14:02Chinese panels, for example, for cheap Chinese batteries
00:14:06and and the transition to domestic
00:14:09types of energy, meaning wind wind and
00:14:12and solar energy, of course, that will not
00:14:16be an absolute solution, but it is a short-term solution,
00:14:20it is also a long-term solution, because once you
00:14:23buy it, yes. It's about slightly larger investments, but then
00:14:27you have no further costs, no further import costs,
00:14:30like this, and like this, given the geopolitical
00:14:34situation, oil, oil and and and
00:14:38natural gas, or LPG,
00:14:41LNG,
00:14:43have, have very big strategic problems, they
00:14:47have become more of a problem than a solution for
00:14:56The International Air Transport Association has halved
00:15:00the forecast for global airline profit for
00:15:032026, from the initial
00:15:0641 billion to 23 billion dollars,
00:15:10due to the current geopolitical situation. Against
00:15:13such pessimistic forecasts, Air France decided to fight with
00:15:17luxury. With portions of caviar and
00:15:21champagne, Air France launches the motto that luxury pays off.
00:15:25Such a business move helped Air France to deal with
00:15:28the consequences of the oil crisis.
00:15:31We noticed that there is greater resilience to price
00:15:35increases in business class than in
00:15:37economy class, we have significantly raised prices in premium cabins and so
00:15:41far we are doing better than we expected. Simply
00:15:44put, the rich are getting richer and more willing to
00:15:47pay more for comfort. And the French capital itself, which
00:15:51attracts millions of visitors, is synonymous with luxury and
00:15:54refinement. France has long
00:15:58been an attractive destination. All luxury brands are located
00:16:01in Paris. We have more Michelin-starred restaurants
00:16:05than any other country in the world,
00:16:08Air France was not immune to the consequences of the US-Iran
00:16:12war and rising jet fuel prices, however,
00:16:15instead of reducing the level of service, the company intensified
00:16:18efforts to build a brand that is associated with luxury. According to
00:16:22data shared by the company, revenue from first class
00:16:26and premium segments increased by
00:16:2911%.
00:16:32That's all for Forbes magazine for this week, for other news from the world
00:16:36of business economics. Our exclusive stories, interviews,
00:16:39read them on forbesbih.com, watch n1 and read Forbes.
00:30:24Good evening, dear viewers, welcome to
00:30:26the news.
00:30:30Citizens of Bosnia and Herzegovina today elected members of government bodies, a total of
00:30:33518 of them. Voter turnout by 5 PM
00:30:36was 32.20%. Citizens are electing a new government for the first time with the
00:30:40help of new technologies.
00:30:43To have a little change, to have it a little better, this has been
00:30:47terrible so far, so I expect nothing, a little harder, much harder
00:30:50situation than it has been so far, unfortunately that's how it is,
00:30:54we always hope for the best, and
00:30:57this time we hope that young people...