Google Speech-to-Text API Automatic Transcription (Chirp). Treat it as a searchable index of what was broadcast, not a quotation record.
00:00:14Iran had warned, if war begins, this time it will not remain within Iran's
00:00:18borders. Washington did not take Tiran's warning seriously. What followed was a
00:00:21widening battlefield, Israel,
00:00:24and US bases in Saudi Arabia, the
00:00:26in UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait came under attack.
00:00:30"the war
00:00:30of began in the skies, but soon reached the veins
00:00:32of the economy. then Tairan issued its next
00:00:35of warning, if Iran's infrastructure
00:00:37of is targeted, your infrastructure will be targeted as
00:00:40in well, and the world quickly understood that
00:00:42of even silence and neutrality in this war could carry heavy price, but
00:00:45Iran's next
00:00:46in warning is even more consequential. the war could
00:00:49become extra regional. no official evidence says
00:00:53that all recent incidents are
00:00:58of in connected, but this is where the central question begins. when Iran speaks of an extra..." regional war, does it only mean an
00:01:02expansion of geography, or does it refer to a chain of energy
00:01:05routes, supports, military basis
00:01:08of markets and the global
00:01:10of economy? of the United States once ignored Iran's warning about the regionalization of war, and it
00:01:14is
00:01:14in still dealing with the costs. now the question is, if
00:01:18of Washington ignores the warning of an extra regional war this time as
00:01:21well, will it be able to pay the
00:01:23price?
00:01:32of a
00:01:51Good evening, and tonight's a spotlight, we turn once again to the straight of
00:01:55remoz, where Iran has now made its position
00:01:58of unmistakably
00:01:59of clear. The straight will not be reopened until Washington
00:02:02changes as its
00:02:04of hostile
00:02:05of behavior toward Iran. Iran's Supreme National Security Council has
00:02:08laid out six conditions, including an end to the aggression against
00:02:12of
00:02:12of Iran and its allies, the withdrawal of US military forces from the
00:02:16region,
00:02:17in compensation for the damage caused
00:02:19of by the two wars, the lifting of sanctions and the unconditional
00:02:22release of Iranian assets. This comes as Iran
00:02:26and Oman continue
00:02:28of negotiations over new framework for managing
00:02:31of traffic through the straight of hermus, but reports that the two sides have
00:02:34reached an understanding over the coordinates of new shipping
00:02:38route. At the same time, maritime tensions are
00:02:41of escalating of with reports of an Iranian strike on an
00:02:45in ADNOC of lengked of vessel and further reports of an Iranian
00:02:48naval boarding industry. The
00:02:51of implications extend far
00:02:53of beyond West Asia, Hormus remains one
00:02:55of the world's most important energy choke points, while the parallel
00:02:59disruption around Bob Almandov strate has also created additional
00:03:02pressure on global trade and energy markets, but this is no
00:03:06longer simply a question of whether Iran will reopen
00:03:10of the straight of for moves. The question is bigger: what does Iran
00:03:13want an exchange for reopening it? Can Washington force its
00:03:17preferred outcome without addressing Tehran's demands and are we
00:03:21witnessing the emergence of a completely new security order
00:03:24around the world's most critical maritime choke points? That's
00:03:28what we'll be discussing with our. guests
00:03:32of tonight, Henry
00:03:36Hokamaki, writer and podcaster join us from Tartor Sun in
00:03:39Russia
00:03:45and Honey Bathitch, a journalist and writer join us from the city of
00:03:48Beirot.
00:03:54Gentlemen, both of you, thank you so much for being with us, I'm going to begin with uh
00:03:58Mr. Haukamaki and to talk. on thank you Henry for your
00:04:01time, the first question, I wanted your thoughts on um the
00:04:05latest uh statement by Iran Supreme National Security
00:04:09in Council linking the reopening
00:04:13in of the strate of removes to six different
00:04:14of political and military conditions, what does that tell
00:04:17you about the Tehran's strategy at this
00:04:21point in time and also the balance of power in the west Asia
00:04:25region? absolutely, and I want to
00:04:29begin by thanking Thank you for the invitation, it's always a pleasure being on Press
00:04:32TV. Now, with regards to your question, Iran putting
00:04:36forth these conditions signals a couple of things: first, it
00:04:39demonstrates
00:04:40a clear eyeed analysis of what is just. These
00:04:44conditions are absolutely what should be called
00:04:48for. Iran is the victim here
00:04:50of of an absolute unmitigated
00:04:53aggression, and what is becoming an unmitigated failure by
00:04:57the United States. It makes sense that as the... target
00:05:00in of such aggression, Iran would
00:05:03be able to get these sorts of
00:05:07of conditions of in return for being the victim of this aggression, but what it
00:05:11also signals is... that as you mentioned, there is new security
00:05:15order coming forth, and it shows that Iran is quite confident
00:05:19with its position as things stand right now. these
00:05:22conditions, as it is at the moment, the United States
00:05:26would be quite unhappy to be reading these conditions.
00:05:29however, as the the situation continues to develop,
00:05:33and as we've discussed, as I've been on this show previously,
00:05:37Iran is a very stable position right
00:05:40now, the... goals the United States were to
00:05:44topple the, they say to change the regime, but we know what that is code
00:05:48for, the dismantling the Islamic Republic, if anything, the Islamic
00:05:52Republic is a much more strong position than it was before this aggression by
00:05:56the United States, and we see that Iran is putting forth
00:05:59conditions that the United States is unhappy with, now why would they put these
00:06:03forth at the present time? one is that they believe that they are a
00:06:07very stable position themselves, but also there is reporting that's been
00:06:11coming out within the... last 24 hours that continues to show that the United
00:06:15States's weaponry, their munitions are being constantly
00:06:19depleted. the chairman the joint chiefs of staff, Dan Cayne the
00:06:23United States, within the last 24 hours has
00:06:26apparently been behind closed doors talking with the
00:06:30generals the United States military to try to find potential off-ramps
00:06:34as munitions continue to dwindle. Iran is certainly
00:06:37also seeing this reporting that is coming out and as result
00:06:41believes that now the correct time to put forth what are
00:06:45again just demands? the United States at some point will have
00:06:49to understand that whatever its objectives are at this current time are not
00:06:52going to be achieved by force and they are going to
00:06:56have to acquies to what Iran wants at some
00:06:58point. well thank you. now let me bring
00:07:02in Mr. Bathitch into this conversation as well. thank you for being with
00:07:06us. um your thoughts on the importants um you're
00:07:09welcome. your thoughts on what it means that Right now Iran is actually
00:07:13controlling the straight of from moves, some analysts are
00:07:17arguing that Iran can overplay this card at this
00:07:20time and space, would you say that that is a possible
00:07:24outcome? Well, I
00:07:27think Iran right now is a unique position
00:07:31that the United States has basically grossly
00:07:35miscalculated Tehran's response
00:07:38to the the aggression the United States
00:07:41and "the United States has overplayed its hand. I mean,
00:07:45it's obvious that what the
00:07:48president and this administration in Washington thought would be
00:07:53easy win for them, turned out to be a
00:07:56quagmire, and I, I, I
00:07:59doubt that that Iran can,
00:08:02as you, as you mentioned, overplay this hand. In fact, right now, many
00:08:06analys are saying that Iran's best weapon is
00:08:10patience, and time is on it." side, not on Donald
00:08:14Trump side, so I don't see that, I see what we're
00:08:18facing today is major shift, a techtonic shift
00:08:21in the balance of power at least in our
00:08:24region, and it's obvious that the United
00:08:28States has failed utterly
00:08:32and will will probably
00:08:35withdraw, I mean, as foreign affairs, the magazine mentioned, I
00:08:39mean, Washington has to disengage. I mean, there
00:08:43is, they don't have an option, the only other option is a land war, and
00:08:47that would be very expensive and very unpopular, and I doubt
00:08:51that Donald Trump or any president would would take
00:08:54this this gamble, so no, I don't see it at all, I think
00:08:58it's time is on Iran side here,
00:09:01and as as your guest mentioned,
00:09:05it is the country that's been aggressed upon, it is
00:09:09the victim here, it was '
00:09:12attacked, an unprovoked attack in the midst of
00:09:16negotiations, so I don't see it, I think
00:09:20Iran has all the cards right
00:09:22now. Henry, when it comes to the
00:09:25disengagement the US military forces from
00:09:29the region, would you say that is a likely scenario to happen
00:09:33after all we have seen a witness uh and
00:09:37happen in the past 160 days,
00:09:41and if something like that happens. how do you think that is going to affect the
00:09:44balance of power in the region first, specifically speaking to
00:09:48regime? yeah, well, I'm so sorry, I'm going to
00:09:52come back to you, Mr. Badhitch, that question was for Henry, yeah,
00:09:56okay, yeah, I have to agree
00:09:59entirely with what you just said, and also, I'm sorry to reiterate things that
00:10:03I've said on previous programs, but over the last several weeks, I've
00:10:07been having to say the same thing again and again, which
00:10:11is that the... United States is a position where it is not going
00:10:14to achieve its strategic goals, the United States is
00:10:18messaging around its strategic goals has continued to
00:10:22alter at at the first point they said that "this was all
00:10:25about the nuclear program, then the United States has begun altering
00:10:29this to regime change to, this should have happened 47 years
00:10:33ago, the the actual reason for the United
00:10:37States undertaking this aggression at the present time, the rhetoric
00:10:40begins changing and has continued to change over the last
00:10:44several weeks. what we understand from this is that the reason
00:10:48for this aggression was always the same, it was to dismantle the
00:10:52Islamic Republic, nothing more, nothing less. Now the way
00:10:56that this was going to be undertaken of course is changing as the United
00:11:00States has begun to realize that the methods that has been taking over the
00:11:04last several months are not achieving the desired
00:11:07result. If anything, as I already have mentioned, the Islamic Republic is a
00:11:11much stronger position now than it was when the aggression
00:11:14began. Before the aggression began, the straight of hormoves was
00:11:18open, now Iran completely controls the straight of Hormus,
00:11:22and as you mentioned at the top the program is in uh
00:11:26negotiations with Oman about making a
00:11:28permanent route in which they would jointly
00:11:32control this route. This is a completely different situation than there
00:11:36was before, which again just shows that the Islamic Republic is a more
00:11:40strengthened position uh almost perversely.
00:11:44However, the United States is not going to be able
00:11:47to continue this operation forever. As we mentioned, the
00:11:51munitions are being depleted, a ground war would be extremely.
00:11:55unpopular, and so the administration at some point or another is
00:11:59going to have to look for an off-ramp, what that off-ramp can
00:12:03look like, nobody really knows, however, we have
00:12:06speculated on previous programs that the United
00:12:10States is going to
00:12:11have to seek a way in which they can say, look, we have one in some
00:12:15way, that's why the rhetoric keeps changing, they changed the rhetoric so
00:12:19that if they ever achieve a goal, that was never really the goal in the
00:12:23first place, they can claim "well, this is, this is our opportunity
00:12:27declared victory, and now we can pull out. none these
00:12:31objectives are being achieved, so the United States is being left with very
00:12:34little in terms of what can actually be done. one these things that has
00:12:38been talked about recently is the bombing of pickax mountain,
00:12:42which, as we've discussed previously, nothing short of tactical
00:12:46nuclear weapons and even in that case, only maybe tactical nuclear
00:12:50weapons could disrupt what is underneath pickaxe mountain is on
00:12:54the table right now.
00:12:55"no one knows if the United States is actually going to take this remarkably
00:12:59egregous step to move into a nuclear
00:13:02warfare scenario and whether or not that would even
00:13:06work, but the other option is for them to just pull
00:13:09out. now the messaging is what is going to be the
00:13:13key. to me it's more likely that the United States is just
00:13:17going to have to pull out the operation entirely as they see that what they're
00:13:20trying to achieve is not going to happen. the question is how are they going to
00:13:24pack?" that for the American domestic audience, how are they
00:13:28going to be able to say, look, we achieved our goals, we, quote
00:13:32unquote, won this war, that's what we're really
00:13:36going to have to think about, because Iran is being strengthened, but the United
00:13:40States, when they are going to pull out, and we know that they're going to, because
00:13:44they cannot win in the situation that we see right
00:13:47now, they're going to
00:13:49have to find some way to spin it rhetorically, and that is what is going to be the interesting
00:13:52thing to look at. That's right. Mr. Badhitch,
00:13:56what would it look like if the US
00:14:00forces withdraw from the
00:14:02region?
00:14:05Well, I think that
00:14:07eventually, they they'd already
00:14:11started to reduce their their
00:14:15their presence or footprint within the Persian
00:14:18gulf itself,
00:14:19I mean the last aircraft carrier to actually transit the straight of
00:14:23hormos was in 2012. 23 I believe, it's
00:14:27clear that even their most
00:14:31cherished and precious bases in Qatar or any other gulf
00:14:35countries have become liabilities
00:14:39basically for them, they're just sitting ducks
00:14:42especially with the the shortage of
00:14:45munitions, defensive
00:14:49missiles, patriot systems or or others and lot
00:14:53of talk about uh basically pulling out
00:14:57US forces, maybe to bases in
00:15:01Israel, that's a foregone
00:15:04conclusion now, how the white house, how the administration will
00:15:08spin this withdrawal, how they will frame it, that's
00:15:12another matter, but if you recall in the text the
00:15:15mou itself between the US and Iran, which the US did not
00:15:19live up to, it is mentioned that US
00:15:23has 30 days to... pull its forces away
00:15:27from or outside the proximity the Islamic
00:15:30Republic. now proximity to means the
00:15:34bases, it's US basis in Iraq and... and in the
00:15:38Gulf, this is proximity,
00:15:41so uh, had the US actually
00:15:45implemented the MaU in good faith, which they didn't, they would
00:15:48have to say to their to the American people, we're pulling out because
00:15:52this is what we agreed to, and how they frame a
00:15:56victory or how they frame a success to the
00:15:59US, people, I can't see how they could
00:16:03possibly do that, because most Americans today have access to...
00:16:07news and can see for themselves this
00:16:11failure, in fact
00:16:12I would go as far as to say that the American empire has
00:16:16stumbled right here, this is the beginning the
00:16:19fall as far as I can see, and Hormus is
00:16:23to Trump, as suas was to Anthony Eden, the British
00:16:27Prime Minister in the 50s, and that
00:16:30signaled Britain's disengagement east of Sewers
00:16:34and eventually the clapse of...
00:16:37British imperial power in the region, which was later taken over by the
00:16:41US, of course, but still, so I think this is
00:16:45major turning point, and there is no way to frame
00:16:49this as any victory. I mean, even the American
00:16:53people can see clearly that this was a gross
00:16:56miscalculation and a big mistake.
00:17:00That's right. Henry, so many different things to ask right
00:17:03here, if the reopening of this rate of hormous is now. to
00:17:07sanctions relief as it was uh today in the
00:17:11statement by the Supreme National Security Council uh and also the
00:17:15compensation for war um and there is this
00:17:19leverage right now by Iran that if they are controlling the straight of moves
00:17:23and they reach to deal with the Omani side um how
00:17:27would that affect the US
00:17:30um you know role in the region that is my first question and if there are no
00:17:34sanctions on Iran because the reopening the straight off from and
00:17:37Iran is actually collecting money from the ships that are
00:17:41passing through the strategic waterway, that is also going to
00:17:45affect Iran economically speaking, again giving Iran
00:17:49another leverage? yeah,
00:17:52absolutely. I agree entirely, and I think that in either case what
00:17:56we're going to see is a change in the power balance
00:18:00within the region. Until this moment, really,
00:18:04the United States and Israel had assumed that they had. total dominance
00:18:08the region and have been acting with impunity for
00:18:11decades uh really doing any actions that they really
00:18:15wanted to, because no regional actors had the
00:18:18ability either individually or collectively to really push back
00:18:22any substantive way against these egregous actions that the United States and
00:18:26Israeli governments have been undertaking for these decades.
00:18:30however, the the situation today is one in
00:18:33which we see that the power balance is already shifting,
00:18:37Iran is having the ability to act
00:18:41against this agregous action by the United States and
00:18:44Israel, it is standing firm in the face these
00:18:48attacks by the imperialists from the west, and
00:18:52if the conditions that Iran has laid
00:18:55out are agreed to, which I don't believe that
00:18:59they will be in the near future, just to make it clear, but if they
00:19:03are agreed to, what that would be is huge change in...
00:19:07the balance of power, the lifting the blockade, lifting
00:19:11of sanctions and unfreezing of Iranian assets would be
00:19:15huge, huge, economically for the Islamic
00:19:18Republic, it would allow them to trade much more
00:19:22freely, it would allow them to utilize assets that have been frozen
00:19:25abroad, and it would allow them for making further connections
00:19:29beyond the countries that
00:19:30it is already actively engaged with, like Russia, like
00:19:33China, but I don't see that happening in the near future after. all it
00:19:37is in the current days where the United States
00:19:41Congress is attempting to put further sanctions
00:19:45on Iran on Russia on China
00:19:48and it would be a bit strange if they are
00:19:52implementing new sanctions at the same time that they're going to be dropping sanctions so I
00:19:56don't see that happening within
00:19:57the next few days but as I mentioned a little bit ago as the
00:20:01situation continues to develop and the United States understands it
00:20:05cannot win in this scenario. it is eventually going
00:20:09to have to agree to at least some demands. now whether it is the current demands that
00:20:13have been laid out by the national security council of
00:20:16Iran? it may be, it may not be. there may be further
00:20:19negotiations down the road when the United States actually comes to the table
00:20:23and understands that it has to agree to something, that it's not going to achieve
00:20:27its objectives. the moment that that happens, Iran is going to
00:20:31be monumentally strengthened, not only in terms of economics, but also in
00:20:34terms of legitimizing the political project. The United States having
00:20:38to acquies to the demands of Iran, legitimizes the political project
00:20:42and demonstrates the strength the
00:20:45government. That is something that would be
00:20:48unprecedented. for the United States to do for Iran and would
00:20:52signal a dramatic sea change in power. now with
00:20:56regard to uh Israel, Israel is certainly not going
00:21:00to be very happy about that, and what we have seen
00:21:04is that as soon as there's any action that the Israeli government
00:21:08is unhappy with, they begin to act in increasingly
00:21:11terroristic ways. so what I would anticipate
00:21:15is that as this situation that is unfolding draws
00:21:19further. towards the conclusion and Iran
00:21:22inevitably is strengthened because the United
00:21:25States's gross miscalculation and absolute
00:21:29incompetence within the situation, Israel is going
00:21:33to feel, I guess in some ways embulden, but in also
00:21:37other ways desperate, because they're going to realize that the balance of power
00:21:41in the region is shifting further and further away from them, and every time that they
00:21:45has even been a hint of power shifting away from
00:21:48Israel within the Middle East, the government has resorted to open
00:21:52terrorism and I would anticipate that that is something that would happen and that
00:21:56is something that inevitably the national security council of
00:21:59Iran will be preparing for, because this is
00:22:02historically what we have seen from that government.
00:22:06Mr. Bathich, right now with the straight of remos
00:22:10closed by the Iranian armed forces and also the straight of
00:22:14bobal mandab at the very least facing disruptions by
00:22:18the Yemeni armed forces. "are we looking a new
00:22:21maritime uh regime, new maritime system in the
00:22:25west Asia region uh, and is this something that Washington
00:22:29can neutralize? well, we're
00:22:33certainly looking a new regime, certainly uh,
00:22:37the straights of hormus will not go back to the
00:22:40way uh that they were before, certainly there
00:22:44will be some form of agreement with between Iran and
00:22:48Oman over uh..." some
00:22:51form of payment or
00:22:55fees for services, mean it's similar to
00:22:58the bospherus, the
00:23:02which is also major commercial
00:23:06waterway, as far as the balbel
00:23:09mandab states go, mean the emines
00:23:13have effective control, missile
00:23:17control over that straight and do threaten it. and
00:23:20have for for some time now
00:23:23choked Saudi commerce going through
00:23:26that Saudi vessels or Saudi bound vessels
00:23:29as a result the the bombing
00:23:33the runway the SANA airport and the continued blockade
00:23:37against the the the Yemen
00:23:41the Yemen government Sanah so
00:23:45uh certainly it's going to change the way that
00:23:49things have been... done for too long,
00:23:52shipping has taken has passed through
00:23:56these two waterways without much trouble and without
00:24:00much, so I think
00:24:04now with the situation changing and power
00:24:07shifting towards Tehran and indeed
00:24:10towards regional countries as well, who
00:24:14will want to take agency
00:24:18over their territorial water. and that's only
00:24:22right and proper. now it's in no one's
00:24:25interest to bar entry or to
00:24:28choke commerce in the long term.
00:24:32mean, this,
00:24:35so in some way, i think there
00:24:39will be an agreement reached that
00:24:43will give Iran and oman and
00:24:46probably even Yemen, a degree of control. "and there
00:24:50will be some form of agreement, some sort
00:24:54of
00:24:55you know give and take, obviously
00:24:59this form of control over waterways is
00:25:03an asset a way that you can use in your
00:25:06inbtering for better deal, better,
00:25:09so I do see that happening, certainly we're never going to
00:25:13go back to the way things were before, so
00:25:17who knows how how things will will shape."
00:25:21Exactly, very interesting conversation. Thank you, both gentlemen, Henry
00:25:24Hakamaki, writer and podcaster, joining us from the city of
00:25:27Toturston and Henry Honey Batich, journalist and
00:25:31writer joining us from the city of Beirot. Thank you both.
00:25:35Thank you for having me. And that brings us to the end of this edition
00:25:39of our spotlight program. Thank you for being with us and
00:25:41bye-bye.
00:26:06"as an African, I can't help but think about sanction as in Zimbabwe,
00:26:10because that was what introduced me to sanction in the first place, where the
00:26:13Zimbabwe people had to suffer because of US unilateral
00:26:17sanction and also the EU sanction, and what that sanction did
00:26:21to the entire economy, but having come to Iran, I realized the
00:26:25sanction can be treated as swatt. What is what? In
00:26:29business, swat means s w o t."
00:26:33which means strength, weakness, opportunities and threat, and
00:26:37that is how Iranians have shooted sanctions by turning it
00:26:40into strength, and today Iran
00:26:44produces over 90% of its food
00:26:47consumption.
00:27:01According to the... Most recent sensors, Iran has 90 million
00:27:05people, or over 90 million people, and this
00:27:09produces over 90% the food that its people
00:27:12need. It is so self-sufficient in creating food and
00:27:16producing food that
00:27:17it is also exporting to other countries. There are only
00:27:21very few countries that have been able to attain over
00:27:2470% of food sufficiency according to the
00:27:27UN, and those countries are China,
00:27:30Russia, the United States. and Iran is also one
00:27:34them, but the difference is Iran is heavily
00:27:38sanctioned.
00:27:46According to UN estimate, export of agricultural
00:27:50products now amounts for 12% of Iran's total
00:27:54GDP. When you compare that to the
00:27:57countries around Iran that are well, relatively
00:28:01much, much richer. than Iran, but they cannot produce
00:28:05even 2% the food that they consume,
00:28:09countries like Saudi Arabia, like Kuwait, like
00:28:12Oman, what we can argue that some these countries are
00:28:16experiencing drought, and the geography does not allow for
00:28:19food production, but one the lies we've been told is that
00:28:23to be self-sufficient in food and consumption, you have
00:28:27to be very, very rich. You can also compare that to African
00:28:31countries that have... have huge hurriable land that allow
00:28:35them to be able to farm, but most African
00:28:39countries still import over 70% the food
00:28:43they
00:28:43consume.
00:28:53well, this is one the good restaurants in Tehran and Africam to try
00:28:57very famous Iranian dish known as conme
00:29:00sapsi. "this is
00:29:04considered by Iranian as the king of food.
00:29:07one thing Iran has taught us from the very first moment that are uncovering
00:29:11sanctions around the world and especially in Iran, whether it is from their
00:29:15military doctrine to their technology when it comes
00:29:19to medicine or the ability to be able to produce your own food, is
00:29:23that when a nation takes a decision that it
00:29:27can do it, it will find ways, whether you're
00:29:30sanctioned by everybody in the world. or your sanction by the United
00:29:34States,
00:29:41very
00:29:42delicious.
00:30:36The headlines, the Secretary of Iran Supreme National Security Council
00:30:40says the straight
00:30:41of removes will not reopen until the US corrects its behavior and
00:30:45stops threatening the Islamic Republic. The Iranian president
00:30:48says Tehran took reciprocal action after the US violated the
00:30:52Mou, stressing that the Islamic Republic will continue to defend
00:30:56its interest while pursuing diplomacy.