Google Speech-to-Text API Automatic Transcription (Chirp). Treat it as a searchable index of what was broadcast, not a quotation record.
00:00:00consequences are concerned uh, i have to admit,
00:00:03i i don't think about it too much because i'm
00:00:07scared to think about it, because i have
00:00:11two cars and two motorcycles and i'm not particularly
00:00:15rich and every time i go to fill up at the
00:00:18من gas station, notice the gas prices
00:00:20of keep going up and my
00:00:23of natural instinct of course is to uh say
00:00:26various launch various curse words.
00:00:30at Trump, because he is soly
00:00:33responsible for this absolutely
00:00:36idiotic war, why is it idiotic war? I'm not a
00:00:40fan of war,
00:00:41me but
00:00:41of usually in wars have strategic targets in mind, they
00:00:45have a plan to achieve those targets
00:00:48and that's the way you measure your success,
00:00:52so Trump's war, he
00:00:55of and his people completely misunderstood the
00:00:59a nature. of the Iranian government, the Iranian government is not something that
00:01:03you
00:01:04of can where you knock down the leader and then you
00:01:07in you you cause complete dust after
00:01:10as happened in Iraq for example or as happened
00:01:14in Libya or
00:01:18of Syria for that matter in Iran has an actual republic
00:01:22of with very
00:01:23a complex
00:01:24of mechanics that are designed to
00:01:27replace like any other. republic like any other
00:01:31democratic republic, so the problem
00:01:35with ending this war, particularly as Trump
00:01:39wants to end it, which
00:01:40of is before the midterms, as your other guess
00:01:43said, with victory is that he doesn't know
00:01:47of what this victory looks like, the the the goal
00:01:50posts, the the uh keep changing, this
00:01:54victory keeps changing, it was never
00:01:56of about hermus to begin with, 'm
00:02:00straight was completely free for to navigation
00:02:03of before the war started, this was a problem that is a direct
00:02:06consequence of his war,
00:02:09of the fact that the people in the white house are
00:02:12absolute, i have no words
00:02:15for for them, and to think that he was elected to
00:02:19prevent this kind of thing is another problem,
00:02:22so the world economy is has been shaken even even if
00:02:26the war ends tomorrow ' um
00:02:30the it's the infrastructure still needs to
00:02:33be revamped and
00:02:37there
00:02:37are there are new players involved now the yemeni
00:02:41hosis have are moving up
00:02:44inside eliminating the rebels the
00:02:48other the saudi backed groups
00:02:51of in northern Yemen um and
00:02:55I suspect the the the ease with
00:02:57of which the hoodzies managed to take is not
00:03:01just because
00:03:02of their strategic and tactical brilliance, which
00:03:06is surprising, I'm going to ask you some questions
00:03:09about the the situation in the balbal straight
00:03:13and also Yemen and Saudi Arabia, but I will come back to that,
00:03:17in the meantime, miss the side, brend crew has been
00:03:21above $100 for some time right now, while
00:03:24traffic through the straight
00:03:25of off from moves remains dramatically below the...
00:03:30world levels, we all know about the situation in the straight of bob and mandab straight, what
00:03:34happened to the very important pipeline from Saudi
00:03:37Arabia, that according to some, was responsible for
00:03:404%
00:03:41of the global oil supply, you can correct me if I'm wrong there, um,
00:03:45the question is uh, what would happen to the global
00:03:49economy if the current prices
00:03:51of stay the same or even go higher?
00:03:55well, the global economy will enter and
00:03:59well, it is already... very weak, you have to understand that the global economy
00:04:02has never fully recovered from the pandemic, then it was hit
00:04:06by the Ukraine war, which also led to an energy
00:04:10of shock, now it has been hit in between it was hit by
00:04:14the situation in
00:04:15of Gaza which may not have had immediate effects, but it certainly
00:04:19led to lot of disruption, and now it is being
00:04:22assaulted by the war on Iran, all
00:04:29of of these are cumulative, multiple shocks. that are going to send the global economy into a tail
00:04:33spin, obviously there will be an energy shock.
00:04:36now you have to understand the energy shock has so far been
00:04:40mitigated by several by several things. number
00:04:44one, china has had, china had lot
00:04:48of stock piles, so it has been
00:04:51using them. secondly, thanks to an already weak
00:04:55economy, there has also been a lot of demand destruction, which means
00:04:59that Essentially people are just closing down
00:05:03businesses, losing their livelihoods and not demanding
00:05:07oil, but this level, the continuing
00:05:11increase in oil price. which are not going to decline
00:05:14even if the war ended tomorrow as the other other speaker
00:05:18pointed out, there's going to be lot of
00:05:22time before the destroyed all facilities in the
00:05:26gulf region can be restored and other oil
00:05:30facilities can come online, so the energy impact will be
00:05:34huge. secondly, there's going to be
00:05:36a debt impact, number of countries in the world are heavily
00:05:40indebted and they face... higher oil prices will
00:05:44get deeper into debt and there will be debt crisis, so all
00:05:48in all we are looking at an extremely bad
00:05:51scenario for the world economy, but let add one other
00:05:54thing: president Trump's best friends
00:05:58in the oil economy, for whom he was announcing the
00:06:02drill baby drill initiative, they are
00:06:05making money hand over fist and doing so
00:06:09at the expense of US consumers. What do I mean
00:06:13by that? On the whole, most these majors
00:06:17are drilling oil in the United States, there
00:06:21costs have not gone up, but as world oil prices go
00:06:24up, they are charging the consumers world
00:06:28prices, so they are making a
00:06:31windfall game, and so you can imagine that
00:06:35President Trump, while he is electorally in trouble with
00:06:39the rising oil prices, he politically... He is
00:06:43doing very well, serving the precise interest whom he was
00:06:47elected to
00:06:53Saudi Arabia today reportedly requested the postponents of an
00:06:57Iran uh Persian gulf meeting in Oman a
00:07:01temporary shipping arrangement through the straight of Formus. Why
00:07:05would Riad want to delay arrangement that could help
00:07:09restore stability? Indus straight to for mous.
00:07:13Well, I have I have a feeling that Riyad's
00:07:17postponement has something to do with the with the hoosi
00:07:21victory, because the hoothies are constantly being
00:07:23presented, especially in the
00:07:26media, with Saudi
00:07:30complicity, as Iranian
00:07:32back, Iranian back is key element, so
00:07:36I think is the the Saudis
00:07:40are trying to bring in. Iran as well
00:07:44- into this are
00:07:48are are trying to get some kind of
00:07:51concessions, but but the or
00:07:53blame um to by postponing
00:07:57this meaning, and Oman has been a
00:07:59very um, very good broker, it's been one
00:08:03the best players
00:08:06in in this terrible situation, one the
00:08:10most reliable so far.
00:08:25prices, not only are the oil
00:08:28companies benefiting from this the the windfall,
00:08:32but the trump family and few people around him are
00:08:35benefiting by manipulating the stock
00:08:39market uh and to
00:08:42shorting oil futures on one day and then
00:08:45making the profits on the next, so
00:08:49they uh, there's a lot of corruption going
00:08:53on, Trump is the only president I ever heard of
00:08:57who, there is that going on, and also American
00:09:01oil companies drilling in Texas benefit from
00:09:05a high oil price, because it's very expensive to drill
00:09:09in in the United States and um...
00:09:12they with
00:09:14the the high oil prices, all of sudden the profit margins are
00:09:18justified, so shaale oil
00:09:21becomes economically viable, and also
00:09:25Trump made another mess in Venezuela before at
00:09:29Christmas, that was his Christmas gift to the world um by
00:09:32taking over the Venezuelan oil,
00:09:36which supposedly to great fan fair has been handed over to
00:09:40Chevron and Exxon to develop. and we've heard
00:09:44various projects being
00:09:47started, but there's something else that isn't
00:09:50mentioned, and that is that the investments needed
00:09:54to bring Venezuelan oil production up to
00:09:57speed are huge, billions and billions,
00:10:01dozens of billions of dollars are needed to upgrade the
00:10:05infrastructure, and also Venezuelan cruwed suffers from
00:10:09similar problems to shale, it's not sweet. It needs
00:10:13a lot of refining and it's very sludgy,
00:10:16unlike most middle eastern
00:10:18oil. Miss
00:10:21Desai, um, according to Mr. Bruno's uh... analysis
00:10:25when it comes to the oil prices, if there the oil prices go
00:10:29up from a certain point then it is good for the US
00:10:33economy, so if you wanted to
00:10:36actually tell what Iran should be doing at this moment, there
00:10:40must be a sweet spot that Iran should try its best to
00:10:44keep the oil prices in that range, am I in the right?
00:10:48um, yes, I mean there is a there is a certain
00:10:51complexity as Mr. Bruno just pointed out that ' you
00:10:55know the shale oil producers
00:10:59benefit from a higher oil price because their production
00:11:02is not viable under a certain price, but that does not
00:11:06go for all American oil producers, so that's the first thing.
00:11:09secondly, as I said, the the producers who are
00:11:13already producing a a lower price
00:11:17are already benefiting. I just
00:11:30is that Trump's announcements about you, how
00:11:33he is taking over Venezuelan oil or how the
00:11:37oil war will, how the Iran war will end
00:11:40after the midterms, all these are
00:11:44time to coincide with the midterm
00:11:47elections, so somehow to alleviate,
00:11:51somehow to essentially excuse his...
00:11:55is tremendous blunder in undertaking this war.
00:11:59now as far as Iran is concerned, I i
00:12:03suppose it will be wise for it to keep the oil
00:12:07price down to level which does not benefit the shale
00:12:10oil drillers and I don't know exactly
00:12:14what that price level would be, but honestly I am not
00:12:18sure that that's what necessarily Iran wants, because
00:12:22Iran's interest also is in
00:12:25continuing the supply of oil, at the end the day,
00:12:29Iran may benefit from higher oil prices, but it needs to sell some
00:12:33oil in order to keep going, and and Iran has been quite
00:12:37explicit about that, Iran has been quite explicit about that,
00:12:41so I would say that for Iran
00:12:43exactly how much to keep
00:12:47the what traffic to let through and how
00:12:50much are decisions that it far and I have no doubt
00:12:54it will continue. to make cleverly depending its needs and of
00:12:58course it's very important and genuine
00:13:01desire not to harm unduly harm
00:13:05its allies and other innocent
00:13:08parties in in the situation. Iran has not
00:13:12created this world energy crisis, it is the
00:13:16United States, the United States could stop the energy
00:13:19crisis tomorrow by simply ending its
00:13:23entirely unjustified. war on Iran,
00:13:27and of course same goes for Israel,
00:13:30absolutely. Mr. Bruno, Europe is
00:13:34also facing its own inflationary pressures as
00:13:38energy prices uh rise, could the uh
00:13:41crisis industry of removes actually shaped the
00:13:45European countries um to do something different from
00:13:49what they have been doing in the past decades? Well, I think
00:13:53European countries have... two serious problems, one is
00:13:57hormoz, actually three, the other is
00:14:00the close alliance with the United States,
00:14:04and the third problem is the obstinacy in Europe
00:14:07to perpetuate the war in Ukraine,
00:14:11which is hurting and them
00:14:15completely, it is one the biggest shooting yourself in the
00:14:18foot uh issues ever made, this
00:14:22war could could have ended for. four or five years
00:14:25whenever it started, but Europe decided to put all
00:14:29its marbles into defeating Moscow, which is
00:14:33an absolutely incredibly stupid go,
00:14:37we goal, historical terms everyone knows what
00:14:40happens when europe decides
00:14:44to mount some kind of campaign against
00:14:47Russia, and now Russia is going
00:14:49after - for for
00:14:52many years. the first Russia
00:14:56was careful not to damage civilian infrastructure too much
00:15:00in Ukraine, in fact we had foreign
00:15:03dignitaries, actors arriving in Kieve
00:15:07regularly. How many wars do we see that?
00:15:10where the the the leader is visited by foreigners without with
00:15:14complete impunity. this is unique, but
00:15:18now you know we heard
00:15:20there was a train, supposedly Boris Johnson was on that train, former British
00:15:24prime minister. and the train was seen as the
00:15:28Russians identified as carrying weapons and so they targeted it and
00:15:32now they're upping the Russians are much more
00:15:35serious they so there is going to be double whamy gas
00:15:38energy from Russia and now the straight of
00:15:42hormoz blocked and the straight babal
00:15:46mandab under huzi control. it's
00:15:49ironic the hoodzies took over the port of
00:15:53mocca. most europeans have no idea that that's the reason
00:15:57why coffee you know we have maca coffees because that's where
00:16:01it came from and and that's another interesting issue what's going
00:16:05to happen to coffee prices, but um,
00:16:08so we have a really terrible situation, Europe is the
00:16:12victim of its own, I don't even want to say Miopia,
00:16:16stupidity is more
00:16:18the the issue here, they really need to stop the
00:16:22war in Ukraine, and then they act all surprised
00:16:26when far right parties who
00:16:30have which have at their center the
00:16:33platform, the the political program
00:16:37to pull out of this Ukraine war, like the
00:16:41alternative for Deutschland, which won the elections a
00:16:44in state, last week,
00:16:47I believe, um, threatening
00:16:51Chancellor Merth's party,
00:16:53I don't know how long mer will last in fact, so Europe is
00:16:57already will soon face political consequences as
00:17:00result the totally misguided economic
00:17:04ones, there's another consequence too, China
00:17:08will benefit, China is the United States seems to be
00:17:12doing everything to make China the big, the
00:17:16next big diplomatic, economic and military
00:19:18ali pa
00:19:18dado.
00:20:54هذه حرب قاسيه كثير كثير كثير قاسيه
00:20:56نتي يشوفونا الدول
00:20:59العربيه نحن عايشينها اه
00:21:02والصعبه اكثر كمان علينا وهذه الخيم مش نافعه يقوللك الخيمه
00:21:06منيحه احسن الخيمته
00:21:10القطريه بالعكس القطريه والشوادر كله كله هذول مش
00:21:13نفعات الواحد الا زي
00:21:15بيته.
00:21:20her interview, she's calling out to them, come and see our lives,
00:21:23you know, come and save us, of course these Arabs are not going to do anything, they are
00:21:27complicit, aren't they? I think they put themselves a situation where that
00:21:31the whole they economy is based on rich people coming and living there in
00:21:34the in their countries, so once you've got that situation that even though
00:21:38they have defense, but they're
00:21:39not a military country, so really they they just want to keep the status
00:21:43quo for themselves, whatever is going on around
00:21:45them.
00:22:09In southern Iran, where the waters the Persian gulf meet the
00:22:13open ocean lies narrow stretch of water that may
00:22:17matter more than any battlefield. straight of
00:22:20hormos, passage through which, according to
00:22:23estimates by institutions such as the US energy
00:22:27information administration, a significant portion the
00:22:31world's oil flows every single day, not
00:22:34merely around, but vital artery the global,
00:22:38yet in recent weeks, this straight has, yet in recent
00:22:41weeks, this straight has once again moved from energy maps to the
00:22:45front pages of security crises, following tensions
00:22:49and clashes between Iran, the United States and Israel,
00:22:53the name hormos is being heard once more, this time not merely
00:22:57as passage, but as a tool, a tool caught between
00:23:01war, economy and law, and now an
00:23:05old question has been revived, can ts be charged for
00:23:08passage through this
00:23:09street?
00:23:18Here a fundamental. Question arises: does Iran have the
00:23:22right under international law to impose such levies
00:23:26similar to those charged in international canals, or is the
00:23:30straight of hormos fundamentally an international straight
00:23:34where no state may exercise sovereign measures such as tols
00:23:38or
00:23:38restrictions.
00:23:42The straight of homoz remains effectively closed by Iran. That's having
00:23:46a major impact on the global economy as it's a vital. corridor
00:23:50for oil, gas and huge range of other materials. the legal
00:23:54status of streets and canals worldwide regarding passage fees and
00:23:58tols fundamentally depends on whether the waterway is
00:24:02natural straight or an artificial
00:24:04canal.
00:24:09canals such as suwez and panama are artificial waterways
00:24:13under the sovereignty or joint administration the owning
00:24:16state. in these canals charging to
00:24:20cover construction, maintenance and operational costs is
00:24:24standard and accepted practice. For instance, in
00:24:28the Panama Canal, all vessels pay tools based
00:24:31tonage, type and cargo. In the SUS
00:24:34canal, these fees are determined according to specific
00:24:38indices such as net tonage and vessel
00:24:41type.
00:24:55By contrast, natural streets generally fall under the regime of
00:24:59international law the sea, particularly the
00:25:021982 United Nations Convention on the law the sea
00:25:06or unclose. Under this framework, levying
00:25:10tools or fees solely for passage is prohibited.
00:25:13International straights are natural waterways used for
00:25:16international navigation between two parts the... high seas
00:25:20or exclusive economic zones, and under our
00:25:24convention, they enjoy transit pack convention, they
00:25:27enjoy transit passage rights. However,
00:25:31the crucial point is that Iran and the United States, despite signing
00:25:35this convention, have never ratified it. Iran has
00:25:39even rejected portions of it, including the transit passage
00:25:43regime. Instead, Iran relies a different
00:25:46legal framework, innocent passage. From this
00:25:50perspective, Iran maintains that within its territorial waters,
00:25:54it reserves the right to exercise control, regulate
00:25:58navigation and even impose conditions, including potential
00:26:01tools.
00:26:05"Well, as matter of fact, the straight of hormos is open, it is
00:26:09only closed to the tankers and
00:26:13ships belong to the to our enemies, to those
00:26:16who are attacking us and their allies, others are free
00:26:20to pass, of course, many them prefer
00:26:24not because their security concerns, this,
00:26:28this has nothing to do with us. This approach is rooted in the
00:26:3119'. 58 Geneva Convention and in practices such as the
00:26:35ruling in the Corfu Channel case, which allow coastal
00:26:39states to impose conditions on passage to protect national
00:26:43security and the environment. In the 1958
00:26:47Geneva Convention on the territorial sea a concept called
00:26:50innocent Passage was defined, passage that must be
00:26:54non-threatening, non-destructive and compatible with the
00:26:58security the coastal state. But this was not
00:27:01merely simple. definition: this concept gave the coastal
00:27:05state a tool, the right to determine whether passage is
00:27:09truly innocent or not, and if it is not, the
00:27:13right to respond remains reserved for them.
00:27:16thus, emerging from these very practices, logic took
00:27:20shape. passage is free, but not without
00:27:23constraints. the coastal state may monitor or set
00:27:27conditions for high risk passages such as military
00:27:30vessels or carriers of... dangerous materials may
00:27:34require prior notification and even under specific
00:27:37circumstances impose restrictions to protect national
00:27:41security or the
00:27:42environment.
00:27:51Within this framework, passage is no longer merely a physical
00:27:55movement, but illegal relationship between freedom the
00:27:59seas
00:27:59and state sovereignty.
00:28:32یک ماه افتاد خب نشون میده که ما
00:28:35برای اطمینان از تردد ایمن
00:28:39و امن شناورها باید مجموعه تدابیر رو
00:28:43اتخاض بکنیم این فقط در رابطه با حفظ
00:28:47امنیت ملی ایران به عنوان کشور ساحلی
00:28:50نیست.
00:29:04Ultimately, the straight of Hodmos is not merely waterway, it
00:29:07is a convergence point of law, power and
00:29:11interpretation, and after years of compromise and
00:29:14securing passage for all the world's nations, even those that have
00:29:18sanctioned Iran for decades, Iran has now decided to
00:29:22exercise its natural right and implement a comprehensive
00:29:26plan in cooperation with Oman to establish new
00:29:29passage regulations for this strategic city.
00:29:32Great: control and management that naturally does
00:29:36not suit the taste of hajamanic
00:29:39powers.
00:30:07says the straightful moves would be open within the framework of international
00:30:11law.