Google Speech-to-Text API Automatic Transcription (Chirp). Treat it as a searchable index of what was broadcast, not a quotation record.
00:00:00were pulling her from beneath the depre. the fallen sofa had
00:00:03shielded her head from the collapsing building, but her injuries
00:00:07for severe. her greatest wounds, however, were
00:00:10invisible. weeks later, a video of at home standing on the
00:00:14ruins of her home spread across
00:00:17in Iran. in her hands was a hand-written note rescued from the rubble,
00:00:21one her young son had written before the attack.
00:00:25as she read it, her voice faltered. around her lay the
00:00:29remains
00:00:29of the... life she had built, her father says that after
00:00:33losing her husband, her
00:00:34of ordinary sounds after more than two months of overwhelming
00:00:38grief after losing her family
00:00:40in a us
00:00:41of Israely attack, she suffered fatal stroke and died.
00:00:45her
00:00:46of story speaks to a quiet or taller war of survivors who
00:00:49carry the destruction with them long
00:00:52a after the dos settles. it also reflects a wider pattern
00:00:56of us Israeli aggression across the region that... has left
00:01:00behind a deeper tool not only
00:01:02in a single moment of impact, but in the lasting human
00:01:06consequences that
00:01:10of follow.
00:01:15of
00:01:25of
00:01:35of
00:01:37of
00:02:10of
00:02:52Good evening and tonight's a spotlight we examine the growing
00:02:56economic fallout from the crisis and the straight of removes as oil.
00:03:00prices search shipping remains severely disrupted and
00:03:04the impact reaches consumers across the globe. Brent Crude has
00:03:08climbed above $108 a barrel, while the latest
00:03:12disruptions to Saudi Arabia's alternative oil roots are
00:03:15adding further pressure to global supplies. At the same
00:03:19time, a planned Iran and Oman arrangement on shipping through the
00:03:23straight of removes has been postponed. President Donald Trump says the rise
00:03:27in prices is the legacy of buy. administration
00:03:31and insists that oil prices will drop like rock once
00:03:35the military conflict would Iran ends, what with American diesel
00:03:38prices at record levels and financial markets
00:03:41increasingly worried about inflation, the economic
00:03:45consequences
00:03:46of the war are becoming harder to separate from the military
00:03:49campaign, so who
00:03:51of is ultimately paying the economic price for this conflict? Washington launched
00:03:55a
00:04:00of of military campaign to impose its will on Iran, but the war hands instead. that produced major global energy
00:04:03in shock has this strategy achieved the opposite of what it
00:04:06intended? that's what we'll be discussing tonight with our
00:04:14of guests. redika desai, director
00:04:19a of the geopolitical economy research group joining us from the city of
00:04:20of London. and
00:04:24also joining us is Alessandra Bruno, author and geopolitical analyst join
00:04:28us from the city of Toronto.
00:04:33Thank you both of you for joining me at this spotlight program. I'm
00:04:37going to begin with miss desai. um,
00:04:40president Donald Trump has been posting about the straight of
00:04:43removes, the conflict in uh Russia between
00:04:47Russia and Ukraine and how the energy prices are at this
00:04:51point. Excuse me, he also said that the
00:04:55oil prices will drop like rock once the conflict
00:04:59of between Iran and the US ends, he also linked to the
00:05:03Russia-Ukraine war saying that
00:05:05of both sides have agreed that they are not going to attack each other's
00:05:09of energy infrastructure uh, how would you say? is
00:05:12analyzing the situation and would you call that realistic? Mr.
00:05:16Sai? I would definitely not call it
00:05:19realistic, I would call it totally self-interested.
00:05:23President, which he thought he could,
00:05:27which he thought he could finish off a
00:05:30weekend, it's now in its seventh
00:05:33month, it's not
00:05:35stopping, Iran's
00:05:38resistance, resilience and brilliance. I
00:05:42should say
00:05:43has a trumped Trump and as
00:05:47a consequence he is left dealing with the consequences and having to
00:05:51explain it to an extremely irirate American
00:05:55electorate whom his party is going to
00:05:59face in about six weeks
00:06:02time. he has not got clue
00:06:06about how he can end this
00:06:08war by winning, that is to...
00:06:12he would prefer, mean he he he he can end the war
00:06:16tomorrow, but that would involve admitting defeat, and that
00:06:20is the one thing, he cannot afford ahead
00:06:23midterms, the so we have seen him saying in
00:06:27front the cameras at
00:06:31an airport, tamarx somewhere, oh this is going to last at least until
00:06:34after the elections, because
00:06:36he knows that he cannot end this before the midterm
00:06:40elections, so all he
00:06:41can try to do is, as you pointed out, blame it on
00:06:45the Biden administration, claim that it will end after
00:06:49the end the midterms,
00:06:52meanwhile trying to make sure that he is going to
00:06:56still his party will still in the midterms, he's
00:06:59promised every American five, every adult
00:07:03American 500 US
00:07:07dollars if the Republicans win, go figure, I mean
00:07:10who's desperate? Absolutely, thank you so
00:07:14much, Mr. Sai, let me bring in our other guest, Mr.
00:07:18Bruno into this conversation as well, thank you so much uh for your
00:07:22time tonight, well thank you, also Donald Trump says that the
00:07:25military conflict will not last very long, and when
00:07:29that conflict ends, the oil prices are going to uh
00:07:33be back to the normal situation as they were before February
00:07:3728th, the there are two questions that I wanted to pose, number one
00:07:41is um even if that would be the case, what would
00:07:45happen to the global economy? and second, can he actually
00:07:49do that? can he find out an exit ramp from this conflict
00:07:53that quick? well, thank you for having me.
00:07:57now as far as the economic consequences are
00:07:59concerned, uh, i have to admit,
00:08:02i i don't think about it too much because i'm
00:08:06scared to think about it, because i have
00:08:10two cars and two motorcycles. "and I'm not particularly
00:08:13rich, and every time I go to fill up at the gas
00:08:17station, I notice the gas prices keep going
00:08:20up, and my natural instinct of course, is
00:08:23to say various, launch various
00:08:27curse words at Trump, because he is
00:08:31soly responsible for this absolutely
00:08:35idiotic war. Why is it idiotic war? I'm not a
00:08:39fan of war, but usually wars have strategic..." targets in
00:08:43mind, they have a plan to achieve those targets
00:08:47and that's the way you measure your
00:08:49success, so Trump's
00:08:53war, you might say, failed at the very
00:08:57beginning, because he went for regime change, and he did not achieve
00:09:01regime change because he completely, he and
00:09:04his people completely misunderstood the
00:09:08nature the Iranian government, the Iranian government is not something that...
00:09:12can where you knock down the leader and then you you you
00:09:16cause complete dust after as happened
00:09:20in Iraq for example or has happened
00:09:23in Libya or Syria
00:09:27for that matter in Iran has an actual republic
00:09:30with very complex
00:09:34mechanics that are designed to replace like any
00:09:38other republic like any other democratic
00:09:41republic. so the problem with
00:09:45ending this war, particularly as Trump wants to end it, which
00:09:49is before the midterms, as your other other guests
00:09:52said, with the victory, is that he doesn't know what
00:09:56this victory looks like, the the the goal posts,
00:10:00the the keep changing, this victory keeps changing,
00:10:04it was never about hermus to begin
00:10:07with, the hermus straight was completely free for to
00:10:11navigation before the... war started, this was a problem that
00:10:14is a direct consequence of his war, the fact that
00:10:18the people in the white house are absolute, i
00:10:22have no words for ' for them and to think
00:10:26that he was elected to prevent this kind of thing is
00:10:29another problem, so the world
00:10:32economy has been shaken, even even if the war ends
00:10:36tomorrow, the it's
00:10:40the infrastructure still needs to
00:10:42be revamped, and
00:10:46there
00:10:46are there are new players involved, now the yemeni
00:10:50hosis have are moving up
00:10:53inside. eliminating the rebels, the
00:10:56other, the saudi-backed groups in
00:11:00northern Yemen, um, and I, I
00:11:03suspect the the the ease with which the hoodzies
00:11:07managed to take over is not just because their
00:11:11strategic and tactical brilliance, which is
00:11:15surprising, I'm going to ask you some questions about
00:11:19the the situation in the babal mandab straight and also
00:11:23Yemen and Saudi Arabia, but I will come... back to that, in the
00:11:26meantime, miss the side, brend crew has been
00:11:30above $100 for some time right now, while
00:11:33traffic through the straight of from moves remains dramatically
00:11:37below uh the pre-world levels, we all know about the situation in the
00:11:41straight of bob and mandab straight, what happened to the very
00:11:45important pipeline from Saudi Arabia that according to some was
00:11:48responsible for 4% the global oil supply, you can
00:11:52correct me if I'm wrong there - question is
00:11:56uh, what would happen to the global economy if the current
00:11:59prices stay the same or even go
00:12:02higher? well, the global
00:12:05economy will enter and well, it is already very weak, you
00:12:09have to understand that the global economy has never fully recovered
00:12:13from the pandemic, then it was hit by the Ukraine war which also led
00:12:17to an energy shock, now it has been hit in between it
00:12:21was hit by the situation in Gaza which... may
00:12:25not have had immediate effects, but it certainly led to lot of
00:12:29disruption and now it is being assaulted by the
00:12:33war on Iran, all these are
00:12:36cumulative multiple shocks that are going to send the
00:12:40global economy into a tail spin, obviously there will
00:12:44be an energy shock, now you have to understand the energy
00:12:48shock has so far been mitigated by several by
00:12:52several things, number one, China. has had
00:12:56China had lot of stock piles so
00:13:00it has been using them, secondly, thanks to an
00:13:03already weak economy, there has also been a lot of demand destruction,
00:13:07which means that essentially people are just closing
00:13:11down businesses, losing their livelihoods and not
00:13:14demanding oil, but this
00:13:17level, the continuing increase in oil prices
00:13:21which are not going to decline even if the war it
00:13:25tomorrow as the other other speaker pointed
00:13:28out, there's going to be lot of time
00:13:32before the destroyed all facilities in the Gulf
00:13:35region can be restored and other oil
00:13:39facilities can come online, so the energy impact will be
00:13:43huge. Secondly, there's going to be debt impact,
00:13:46number of countries in the world are heavily indebted and
00:13:50they facing higher oil prices will get deeper into debt
00:13:54and there will... be debt crisis, so all in all we are
00:13:58looking at an extremely bad scenario for the world
00:14:02economy, but let me add one other thing, president
00:14:05Trump's best friends in the oil
00:14:08economy, for whom he was announcing the drill,
00:14:11baby drill initiative, they are making money
00:14:15hand over fist and doing so at the
00:14:19expense of US consumers. what do mean by
00:14:22that? on the hole "most these majors are
00:14:26drilling oil in the United States, their
00:14:30costs have not gone up, but as world oil prices go
00:14:33up, they are charging the consumers world
00:14:37prices, so they are making a
00:14:40windfall game, and so you can imagine that
00:14:44President Trump while he is el was elected to
00:14:46serve, thank you so much, miss
00:14:50desai, mr. bruno, Saudi Arabia today
00:14:54reportedly request" to the postponents of an Iran uh
00:14:58Persian gulf meeting in Oman a temporary shipping
00:15:01arrangement through the straight of Ramus why would Riyadh want
00:15:05to delay arrangement that could help restore
00:15:08stability under straight of from
00:15:10moves? well um I
00:15:14have I have a feeling that Riyad's postponement has something to
00:15:18do with the with the Housi victory because the Housies are
00:15:22constantly being presented. in the
00:15:25media with Saudi
00:15:29complicity as Iranian back,
00:15:33we always hear the stories the Iranian backed hoossis
00:15:36and "nothing else is known about the hoothis in
00:15:40in in the mainstream, but Iranian back is key
00:15:44element, so i think is the
00:15:48the saudis are trying to bring in Iran as
00:15:52well into
00:15:54this are are are trying
00:15:57to get some kind of concessions, but
00:16:01but the or blame um to
00:16:05by postponing this meaning and oman." has been a
00:16:08very um very good broker, it's been one
00:16:12the best uh players
00:16:15in in this terrible situation, one the most
00:16:19reliable so far, might be the reason of course
00:16:23um might be the reason of course um the saudis
00:16:27on the other hand, what i want wanted to add to your
00:16:30other guests comments speaking of oil
00:16:34prices, not only are the oil company is
00:16:38benefiting from this
00:16:39the the windfall, but the Trump family and few people
00:16:43around him are benefiting by manipulating the
00:16:47stock market and to
00:16:51shorting oil futures on one day and then
00:16:54making the profits on the next, so
00:16:58they there's a lot of corruption going
00:17:02on, Trump is the only president I ever heard of
00:17:06who ' trades stocks
00:17:10through his family in Texas benefit from a
00:17:13high oil price because it's very expensive to drill in in
00:17:17the United States
00:17:19and they with
00:17:22the the high oil prices all of sudden the profit margins are
00:17:26justified so shale oil
00:17:29becomes economically viable and also Trump
00:17:33made another mess in Venezuela before uh
00:17:37christmas that was his christmas gift to the world by
00:17:41taking over the Venezuelan oil,
00:17:45which supposedly to great fan fair has been handed over to
00:17:49Chevron and exon to develop, and we've heard
00:17:52various projects being
00:17:56started, but there's something else that isn't
00:17:59mentioned, and that is that the investments needed
00:18:02to bring Venezuelan oil production up to
00:18:06speed, are huge, billions and billions, dozens
00:18:10of billions of dollars are needed to upgrade the
00:18:13infrastructure, and also Venezuelan cruwed suffers from
00:18:17similar problems to shale, it's not sweet, it needs
00:18:21a lot of refining and it's very sludgy,
00:18:25unlike most middle eastern
00:18:26oil. Mr.
00:18:30Sai, according to Mr. Bruno's analysis when it
00:18:34comes to the oil prices, if the the oil price. go
00:18:38up from a certain point then it is good for the US
00:18:41economy, so if you wanted to
00:18:45actually tell what Iran should be doing at this moment, there
00:18:49must be a sweet spot that Iran should try its best to
00:18:52keep the oil prices in that range, am I under
00:18:55right? yes, I mean there
00:18:58is a there is a certain complexity as Mr. Bruno just
00:19:02pointed out that
00:19:03you know the shale oil producers.
00:19:07benefit from a higher oil price because their production is
00:19:11not viable under a certain price, but that does not go for
00:19:15all American oil producers, so that's the first thing, secondly, as I
00:19:19said, the the producers who are already producing
00:19:23a a lower price are already
00:19:27benefiting. I just wanted to add a couple more points to what
00:19:30Mr. Bruno said, before I go to the question of
00:19:34what Iran should do, but so the points wanted to add is
00:19:38that Trump's announcements about
00:19:41you know how he is taking over Venezuelan oil or how the
00:19:45oil war will how the Iran war will end after
00:19:49the midterms all these are timed to
00:19:53coincide with the midterm elections
00:19:56so somehow to alleviate somehow
00:20:00to essentially excuse
00:20:03his tremendous blunder in
00:20:06undertaking. this war now as far as Iran is concerned,
00:20:10I I I suppose it will be wise for it to
00:20:14keep the oil price down to level which does not
00:20:18benefit the shale oil drillers and I
00:20:22don't know exactly what that price level would be, but
00:20:25honestly I
00:20:26am not sure that that's what necessarily Iran wants because
00:20:30Iran's interest also is in continuing the
00:20:34supply of oil at the end the day. 'Iran
00:20:38may benefit from higher oil prices, but it needs to sell some
00:20:41oil in order to keep going, and and Iran has been quite
00:20:45explicit about that, so I would say that for
00:20:49Iran'. exactly how much to
00:20:53keep the what traffic to let through and how
00:20:56much are decisions that it has been making very
00:21:00cleverly so far and i have no doubt it will continue to make
00:21:03cleverly depending its needs and of course it's
00:21:07very important and genuine desire not to
00:21:11harm unduly harm its allies
00:21:15and other innocent parties in in
00:21:19the situation. Iran has not created this
00:21:22world energy crisis, it is the United States, the United
00:21:26States could stop the energy crisis tomorrow
00:21:30by simply ending its entirely unjustified
00:21:33war on Iran, and of course same goes for
00:21:37Israel, absolutely. Mr.
00:21:40Bruno, Europe is also facing its own
00:21:44inflationary pressures as energy prices
00:21:47uh rise, could the uh "crisis industry of
00:21:51removes actually shaped the European
00:21:54countries um to do something different from what they
00:21:58have been doing in the past decades? well, I think European
00:22:02countries have two serious problems, one is
00:22:05Hormus, actually three, the other is
00:22:08the close alliance with the United States, the
00:22:12obstinacy in Europe to perpet obstinacy in Europe
00:22:16to perpetuate the war in Ukraine, which..."
00:22:20is hurting and them completely, it
00:22:24is one the biggest shooting yourself in the
00:22:26foot uh issues ever made, this
00:22:30war could could have ended four or five years
00:22:34whenever it started, but Europe decided to put all
00:22:38its marbles into defeating Moscow, which is
00:22:42an absolutely incredibly stupid go, we
00:22:45goal, historical terms everyone knows what happens.
00:22:50when Europe decides to mount
00:22:53some kind of campaign against Russia, and now Russia
00:22:57is going after - for for
00:23:01many years, for the first, Russia was
00:23:05careful not to damage civilian infrastructure too much in
00:23:09Ukraine, in fact we had foreign
00:23:11dignitaries, actors are riding in Kiev
00:23:15regularly, how many wars do we see that, you know
00:23:19where the the... "the leader is visited by foreigners without
00:23:23with a complete impunity. this is unique, but
00:23:27now
00:23:28we we heard there was a train, supposedly Boris Johnson was on that train,
00:23:32former British prime minister, and the train was seen
00:23:35as the Russians identified as carrying weapons and
00:23:39so they targeted it, and now they're uping, the
00:23:43Russians are much more serious, they so there is going to be double
00:23:46whamy gas energy from Russia."
00:23:50and now the straight of hermus blocked and the straight of
00:23:54babal mandab under huzi control, you know
00:23:57it's ironic, the hoodis took over the port of
00:24:01mocca, most europeans have no idea that that's the reason
00:24:05why coffee, we have maca coffees because that's where
00:24:09it came from, and and that's another interesting issue, what's going to
00:24:13happen to coffee prices, but so
00:24:17we have a really terrible situation. Europe is the
00:24:21victim of its own, I don't even want to say Miopia,
00:24:25stupidity is more
00:24:27the the issue here, they really need to stop the
00:24:31war in Ukraine, and then they act all surprised
00:24:34when far right parties
00:24:38who have which have at their center the
00:24:41platform, the the political
00:24:45program to pull out of this Ukraine war like the
00:24:49alternative. for Deutschland which won the elections in a
00:24:53state last week, I
00:24:55believe, um, party,
00:24:59I don't know how long party, I don't know how
00:25:02long
00:25:03mer will last in fact, so Europe is already will soon face
00:25:07political consequences as result the
00:25:11totally misguided economic ones, there's another consequence
00:25:15too, China will benefit, China
00:25:18is the United States. seems to be doing
00:25:21everything to make China the big the next
00:25:24big diplomatic, economic
00:25:26and military superpower. Absolutely, well we are going to
00:25:30see about that. Thank you so much for your insights, those were
00:25:34Redica desai, director of geopolitical economy research group joined us from
00:25:38the British capital, London, and Alessandra Bruno, author and
00:25:41geopolitical analyst joined us from the city of
00:25:44Toronto. And that brings us to the end of this edition over
00:25:48spotlight program. Thank you for joining us.
00:29:53Top stories here on Press TV, the Islamic Revolution Guard course says it shot
00:29:57down and destroyed another American MQ1 drone over the straight of
00:30:01hormones.
00:30:06at these three civilians have been killed in fresh saudi air strikes and yemen's
00:30:10southwestern province of
00:30:11Thaiz,
00:30:16and Beijing aser Washington to stop preparing for war in outer space
00:30:20after US.