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00:01:30France registered the lowest wine production since
00:01:331957. The country faces one of the worst
00:01:37heatwaves in history, marked by drought and record
00:01:41temperatures.
00:01:46you don't have access to According to the Ministry of Agriculture, wine production in 2026 is below
00:01:4934 million hectoliters,
00:01:526% less than last
00:01:55depressed profitability year. The Ministry's Statistics service
00:01:57indicates that the 17%
00:02:00access to drop, in relation to the average of 2021-2025,
00:02:04larger fairs tend to is explained both by the reduction of areas and by the
00:02:07yields, affected by the drought and heatwaves of
00:02:11summer. France is the second largest wine producer in the
00:02:15world, behind Italy. Until September
00:02:19nothing today 1st, production is estimated at 33.9 million
00:02:22hectoliters compared to 35.9 million last
00:02:26year. This is one of the smallest harvests in the last
00:02:3030 years according to the International Organisation of Vine
00:02:34and Wine, which compiles worldwide wine production and consumption
00:02:37statistics, France had already registered in 2025 the lowest
00:02:40production since
00:02:441957.
00:02:47Corn prices remain high, in the south the summer
00:02:50crop has already started to be sown. The
00:02:53second corn crop harvest is already in its final stages. Meanwhile,
00:02:57producers in Rio Grande do Sul have already started
00:03:01sowing the Summer 2026-2027 Crop.
00:03:04In the state, the area destined for the cereal may be larger next
00:03:08season. According to Cepia, some
00:03:10producers opted for corn in search of crop
00:03:14diversification and the reduction of risks with other
00:03:18products like soybeans. According to the research center,
00:03:21attentive to the possible impacts of El Niño for the next
00:03:24season, sellers are withdrawn, limiting the
00:03:28volume of lots for negotiation. and international highs have
00:03:32raised export parity, the result
00:03:35is pressure on prices, with the high,
00:03:38a portion of buyers have chosen to consume lots
00:03:41commercialized in advance, instead
00:03:44of negotiating at higher levels. According to CPEA
00:03:48researchers, these agents bet that full
00:03:51warehouses, the need to pay debts, and the weakened
00:03:55pace of exports this season, will lead
00:03:59producers to... need to sell in the coming
00:04:02weeks. The price of soybeans gained strength
00:04:06at the beginning of September. Look at this.
00:04:09The appreciation of soybeans observed in August, gained
00:04:13strength at the beginning of this month, sustained by
00:04:16uncertainties about the possible impacts of El Niño on the
00:04:192026-27 crop.
00:04:22Due to higher Asian demand for North American soybeans and the
00:04:26intensification of conflicts in the Middle East. In addition,
00:04:29according to CPA, Brazilian producers await a greater
00:04:33volume of rain to start field activities in the 2026/27
00:04:37season, a scenario that has retracted
00:04:40negotiations involving large quantities. For the
00:04:44researchers, the rise in the national market was limited by the
00:04:47decrease in external demand for Brazilian soybeans. Which is common
00:04:51for this period of approaching the entry of the North American
00:04:54crop. Even so, in the partial period from January to
00:04:58August, Brazil exported almost 90 million tons of
00:05:02grain soybeans, a record for the
00:05:04period.
00:05:06Let's see now the weather forecast for this Wednesday across
00:05:09the country.
00:05:15Wednesday will be marked by the return of instabilities in some areas of the
00:05:19south-central region of the country, the combination of a low pressure area in the interior of the continent
00:05:23and a trough in the atmosphere again favors the formation of heavy clouds,
00:05:27in addition to the transport of heat and humidity, increasing the risk of thunderstorms,
00:05:30mainly between Paraná, Santa Catarina, Rio Grande do Sul and São
00:05:33Paulo. In addition to heavy rain, there is a chance of lightning, wind gusts
00:05:37and high volumes in some places. And attention, Thursday
00:05:40and Friday should concentrate the highest volumes of rain and the highest risk of
00:05:44thunderstorms between the south and southeast, in the south of the country the weather changes again,
00:05:48the action of a trough associated with a low pressure area in the interior of the
00:05:51continent, again increases instabilities. From
00:05:55early on, there is a forecast of rain showers between Paraná and northern Santa Catarina.
00:05:59Throughout the afternoon and also at night, these instabilities advance through more areas
00:06:02of Santa Catarina. In Paraná, the alert is for thunderstorms throughout the
00:06:05day. And in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, the rain is more concentrated in the northwest and in the
00:06:09northern strip, while the rest of the state remains
00:06:12firmer and a new cold air mass keeps temperatures lower in some
00:06:16areas of the state of Rio Grande do Sul. In the southeast, the circulation of moist
00:06:20winds continues to maintain a lot of cloudiness on the coast and in the east of the
00:06:23region. In addition, a trough at mid-levels of the atmosphere
00:06:26favors new rain showers, mainly in the interior of São Paulo and also in
00:06:30Minas Gerais. The forecast is for rain in the state of São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Espírito
00:06:34Santo, Triângulo, South, central, west and east of
00:06:38Minas Gerais and with a risk of thunderstorms in some areas. The situation is
00:06:41one of attention. also on the coast of São Paulo, where there is a chance of high volumes of
00:06:45rain, the situation is dangerous, in the areas closest to the
00:06:49coastal strip and in the south-central of São Paulo, in addition to the south and in some areas
00:06:52of eastern Minas Gerais, the cold air keeps temperatures a little more pleasant,
00:06:56while in the interior of Minas Gerais and in northern São Paulo, thermometers rise more in the
00:06:59afternoon, Wednesday already requires attention in some areas, but the
00:07:03scenario becomes even more worrying in the coming days, between Thursday and Friday
00:07:07the pre-thunderstorm conditions increased significantly in a large part of the south
00:07:10and also in the southeast, Paraná for... this as the state of greatest tension, with
00:07:14risk of intense rain, hail, wind gusts and thunderstorms.
00:07:18São Paulo also enters alert on Thursday, mainly in the south-central
00:07:21of the state, where the condition is dangerous for high accumulations of
00:07:24rain. During thunderstorms, avoid open areas, do not stay near
00:07:28trees, if possible, avoid going out during periods of more
00:07:32intense rain. In the Midwest, isolated showers may still occur during the
00:07:36morning of this Wednesday. Throughout the day, new areas of instability
00:07:40gain strength between the center, east and north of Mato Grosso. eastern half of Mato Grosso
00:07:44do Sul, Federal District and south-central Goiás. The showers
00:07:48occur irregularly, but can be strong accompanied by thunderstorms in some
00:07:51points. And the alert for thunderstorms in southeastern Goiás and also in
00:07:55Mato Grosso do Sul. In the northeast, it continues to rain mainly in the
00:07:58south of Bahia and on the coastal strip between the region of Natal and Alagoas,
00:08:02moderately to strongly, while in the interior, the weather remains
00:08:06drier. And in the northern region of the country, showers
00:08:09continue between Amazonas, Pará, northern Tocantins. in
00:08:12Roraima with an alert for thunderstorms in some areas, while in the
00:08:16other areas the weather remains drier, with heat and sun
00:08:19prevailing. while some areas of the south-central region of the country again register
00:08:23rain, the dry air continues in some areas, mainly in the central region of
00:08:27Piauí, where indices can range between 12 and 20% and
00:08:31reach emergency levels in some places. In Curitiba, the
00:08:34conditions for rain already increase during the morning and mainly during the afternoon
00:08:38and also at night. Showers can occur moderately, strongly with
00:08:42thunderstorms and high accumulations, with a maximum of
00:08:4519 in the afternoon. In São Paulo, rain is forecast already
00:08:48from dawn and also in the morning. Throughout the day and also at night, it rains at any
00:08:52time, there is a risk of heavy rain, thunderstorms, high accumulations
00:08:56and disruptions in some places. And the maximum can reach up to
00:08:5921 degrees, and in Recife, instabilities
00:09:02increase during the afternoon and also at night, where moderate to strong
00:09:06rain is forecast with some clearings in the sky and temperatures can reach
00:09:09up to 27 in the afternoon. In Porto Alegre. in Florianópolis,
00:09:13maximum of 20 and 22 degrees this Wednesday. In
00:09:16Vitória, temperatures can rise up to 25, while in Brasília
00:09:20it gets a little warmer, with a maximum of 28. And in Palmas and
00:09:24Cuiabá, heat of 35 and 36 degrees in the
00:09:27afternoon. Sales of agricultural machinery and implements accumulate a drop of more
00:09:30than 25%. Analysis after the break. Now
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00:09:46Brazil and the world, all this on your cell phone and to access it is
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00:10:04time, 24 hours a day, Record News, you
00:10:07trust.
00:10:12In September, Sky turns 30, celebrating a
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00:11:15turns 30 celebrating a new era of
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00:11:22SkyMóvel, the mobile telephony with the... largest
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00:12:16Sales of agricultural machinery are lower than last year, from
00:12:20January to July the drop was more than 25%. Now the
00:12:24sector hopes for a warming in the coming
00:12:27months, but the annual balance should still be below
00:12:312025. Pedro Estevão, president of the sectoral
00:12:34chamber of agricultural machinery and
00:12:44throughout the year the sales of agricultural machinery and implements
00:12:48were already falling since last
00:12:51year, right? Since last year. What's happening? Why
00:12:55aren't sales
00:12:57recovering?
00:13:00Look, there are several factors, but I'll list the main ones for
00:13:04you and the viewer, first that the
00:13:07sector is quite leveraged, that is, in the period
00:13:11from 2019 to 2023, it was that period when we had a pandemic,
00:13:14interest rates fell, commodity prices rose
00:13:18a lot, folks, we increased the planted area by about
00:13:2215 million hectares, that's a lot, it's such
00:13:25an astonishing increase, people leveraged
00:13:29themselves in that period. The problem started
00:13:33in 2025, we had a crop loss due
00:13:36to a very severe drought throughout Brazil, we had a crop loss there
00:13:40in 2025. The price of the main
00:13:44two main commodities, which are soybeans and corn, fell
00:13:48a lot on the stock exchange, you had an excess of supply and
00:13:51this price that reached, for example, soybeans hit $17 a bushel
00:13:55and went back to $10, so you have a
00:13:58very low profitability, especially until
00:14:01mid-June, we are with the price of soybeans
00:14:05very low, soybeans and corn, and these two commodities
00:14:08basically represent 60% of the
00:14:12agricultural machinery market, so the profitability
00:14:15of these commodities was very low, so people not
00:14:18having profitability, having crop loss and having debt to
00:14:22pay, they will hold back investment. Another
00:14:26detail is that the interest rate for costing is quite
00:14:29expensive, the resource that the government
00:14:32allocates for for costing
00:14:35is around 170 billion, despite the
00:14:39harvest plan being 530, we are more or less subsidizing
00:14:43170 billion for costing, so you have
00:14:46a large portion of farmers who will need to go to the
00:14:49market, they pay a very high interest rate, so they don't go to the market, they prefer
00:14:53to use their own resources to cover costs and
00:14:57then certainly less money is left for
00:15:00investment eh, and we
00:15:03now have El Niño right, which is actually an
00:15:07imponderable, we don't know exactly what will happen, and this
00:15:11ends up, let's say, scaring away investments because if the farmer doesn't know
00:15:15exactly what will happen, he is very afraid
00:15:17of crop loss and not being able to pay
00:15:21his bills, so it also makes you have...
00:15:25have, let's say, a very great fear of the farmer making
00:15:28investments, so these
00:15:32things I told you about are a leveraged sector, low
00:15:35profitability, loss of...
00:15:38high interest rates made this year,
00:15:41especially this year, very bad for the agricultural machinery market,
00:15:45let's talk a little more about all these points, right, between January and July of this
00:15:49year, sales totaled 26
00:15:52billion and 200 million reais,
00:15:5625.8% less than in the same period
00:15:59last year, you said about the pandemic era that
00:16:03investment was higher, we then perceive a rollercoaster
00:16:08ride right, a few years ago the
00:16:11producer was one of the only sectors of the
00:16:14economy that worked much more, right, it was
00:16:18in the pandemic era that the agribusiness, we then realize that
00:16:21at that time the producer invested a lot and is still paying
00:16:25that bill because we know that a machine like this costs a lot
00:16:29right, so the producer took advantage of the
00:16:32high prices of that period took advantage of the expansion of
00:16:36area of that period made an investment and that bill is still
00:16:39coming?
00:16:42Certainly, yes, the
00:16:44investments usually the farmer is characterized
00:16:47by buying and making financing for
00:16:50investments, these investments are more or less from
00:16:5410 to 5 years, so let's put an average of 7 years, so
00:16:58you have a lot of bills to pay, so you have
00:17:01low profitability, you have very little money left to
00:17:04have resources to make new investments, so... it is really
00:17:08the agricultural sector has a lot of these ups and downs and this up and
00:17:12down is due to the price of commodities, note that
00:17:15I said that in a good time the price of soybeans on the
00:17:19Chicago exchange was $17 a bushel, which is 27 kg
00:17:22and it dropped to 10 now 4 months
00:17:26ago, that is, a very large difference from seven to from 10 from
00:17:3017 to 10, it
00:17:32a lot and behind soybeans came corn, came
00:17:35wheat, came other commodities... other grains that cause the
00:17:39price to fall a lot, so we always have this
00:17:42mismatch between profitability
00:17:45and the prices of commodities, this makes
00:17:49sales really rise and fall at a very
00:17:52high speed, for you to have an idea, in the period
00:17:5621, 22, the sector invoiced 98
00:17:59billion and now we are talking about invoicing 53 billion, it is a
00:18:03very big difference, ah this is normal in the agricultural
00:18:06sector, let's say, it has
00:18:09basically always been like this, that is, when the commodity price falls,
00:18:13people stop buying, when the price, profitability
00:18:16is high, people buy, it has always been like this, this
00:18:20magnitude of this fall is a little
00:18:23greater than other events that happened in the past,
00:18:26precisely because of the accumulation of negative
00:18:30factors, which was the drought, high interest rates
00:18:34made this, let's say, potentialize this... this
00:18:37low crop yield,
00:18:41low profitability, when we talk, right, another point you
00:18:44mentioned, the issue of high interest rates, of the harvest plan,
00:18:48explain how it works, because we always report here year after year
00:18:51right, that some millions of reais
00:18:55were released for investment, for small, for medium, for large
00:18:58producers, family farming, how does it work and for
00:19:02the producer to have access to this credit to invest in machinery, because
00:19:06there are some plans, including... that are specific
00:19:09for the purchase of machinery, for the purchase of tractors, of agricultural
00:19:12machines,
00:19:16yes, the harvest plan has many lines of
00:19:19investments and you sometimes get confused, you have the part of
00:19:23costing and the part of investment, the part of
00:19:26investment, the interest rates are not so expensive, today you have
00:19:29the Pronaf line, which is
00:19:32for small farmers, which is 5%, it's a quite
00:19:35reasonable interest rate, I would say... that it's quite attractive, an interest rate of
00:19:395%, but this is for very small farmers who are called
00:19:43Pronaf farmers, after that you have the
00:19:46line, for example, today there is MV Agro, which is a line
00:19:50that the government recently introduced, about 30 days
00:19:54ago, which costs 9%, so
00:19:56it's also reasonable, then you have the traditional lines, which are for
00:20:00large farmers, let's say, large farmers, which is the Moderfrota, which
00:20:03is 12.5%, you have a financing
00:20:06line for... medium farmers, which is the Pronamp, which is
00:20:0911.5%, and besides that you have FCO and FNE, which
00:20:13are the lines for the Midwest and for the North,
00:20:17Northeast, so, let's say, the volume of resources you
00:20:20have for investments are even reasonable, if you add up everything I told
00:20:24you, it amounts to about 22 billion available
00:20:28for the farmer to buy, for a sale of
00:20:31fifty-something billion, we have basically 60% of our sales
00:20:35would be covered with interest or with... resources that are
00:20:38reasonably cheap, right, what is really
00:20:41expensive today is the, let's say, the
00:20:45costing, as I said, what I said before, only 170
00:20:49billion. It's a subsidized resource, the bulk
00:20:53of the costing is done by CPR, CPR
00:20:56will cost Selic plus one, Selic plus three, Selic plus four, depending on the
00:21:00farmer's payment capacity, which is not such a cheap resource,
00:21:04so you have these differences
00:21:06in the harvest plan, but I repeat for
00:21:10investment you have quite a lot of resources
00:21:13with a reasonable interest rate, what is really lacking is the appetite for
00:21:16the farmer to buy due to these...
00:21:20variables that we have been talking about throughout the interview and it is
00:21:23interesting because agricultural fairs are
00:21:27important thermometers that
00:21:29guide this this buying and selling relationship
00:21:33right, for example, Expodireto ended last weekend
00:21:35the balance of Expodireto, which is the largest agricultural fair in
00:21:39Brazil, that happens in Rio Grande do Sul,
00:21:42purchase intentions fell compared to last
00:21:46year's edition by about 25%. Meaning
00:21:48we had already been seeing this at Agrishow, saw it at other
00:21:52fairs, now Expodireto, which I think is the last big fair of the
00:21:55annual calendar right, this market
00:21:58is challenging, reflecting Expodireto reflecting
00:22:01this trend of retraction in
00:22:04investments,
00:22:07so fairs, the trend of fairs is to reflect what is happening
00:22:11in the market, you see that at Agrishow we
00:22:14reported a drop of 22%. The
00:22:17accumulated from January to July is 22%. That is, the fair
00:22:20reflects a lot what happens, especially the big
00:22:24fairs, if you take a regional fair, it may be that specifically
00:22:27for that region, for that crop, the market is
00:22:31different, right, so you have some crops that are doing well, for example,
00:22:34uh, you take machines for
00:22:38livestock, it's reasonable, it's not a bad market like soybeans
00:22:42and corn, uh, machines for coffee are very good, that is, if you
00:22:46have a specific fair for coffee, uh, it
00:22:49won't... report such a bad result, but the
00:22:54reflect what happens in the market, it's difficult for you to
00:22:57have a result at the fair that is very different from what is
00:23:01happening in the market, so this number from
00:23:05Expodireto reflects exactly what is happening in the market, there is
00:23:09different, there was nothing different at the fair that would cause
00:23:13sales to increase, it reflects exactly what is happening,
00:23:17uh, it is worth noting
00:23:21to the public that we recently had, about
00:23:2520 days ago, the price of soybeans and corn increased a lot on the Chicago stock
00:23:29exchange due to climate
00:23:32problems in the United States, so
00:23:36let's say, the price increased a bit, this made the farmer feel
00:23:39a little more optimistic, but this optimism will only be
00:23:43reflected next year, that is, when he really has a good
00:23:47harvest, if he has El Niño, El Niño doesn't harm
00:23:50much there in February-May of next year, when he harvests, he makes the calculations, there is
00:23:54money left, the price is better, because the price of
00:23:57commodities increased by basically 15%, so he will have a
00:24:01slightly better profitability, but this will only be reflected next year.
00:24:05this year, even
00:24:07this increase that happened now in the last 15 days, still not
00:24:10not probably won't reflect this year,
00:24:14so we continue with the same forecast of closing
00:24:17the year with -20 which even
00:24:21-22 will be a challenge for us to reach -20 it would mean that from now on
00:24:24sales would have to be a little better than they were until then
00:24:28up to our statistics until July
00:24:31we think it's difficult for that to happen, we're at
00:24:34-22 looking for -20, we think it will
00:24:38be difficult, because it's interesting for us to reinforce, right, when you say that
00:24:41these numbers or this profitability will only reflect next
00:24:45year because when we talk about agriculture, we talk about a long cycle, right, when we talk about crop
00:24:49year, we don't talk about the year from January to December, so the farmer is
00:24:52planting now or is preparing the soil or is, even
00:24:56if it's finishing the harvest, in the case of corn, the second harvest, but this
00:25:00sale, it has either already been made and is already committed or is negotiating for
00:25:03next year and will only receive next year, so it's important for us to
00:25:07also tell this to those who follow us and sometimes are not so
00:25:10familiar with this calendar, but then another
00:25:14point that you reinforced also that impacts this
00:25:18retraction in investment is the... El Niño, we've been talking about an intense
00:25:22El Niño this year worldwide and you've already talked about
00:25:25North American production and this
00:25:28climatic insecurity directly affects the
00:25:31investment that the producer makes in this
00:25:34machinery, so that means, the reflection of El Niño or the impact
00:25:38of El Niño in the Northern Hemisphere will also
00:25:41interfere with what the Brazilian producer will
00:25:43invest,
00:25:46ah, for sure, right, you...
00:25:50the media has intense coverage on El
00:25:54Niño, right, considered the biggest El Niño since 1870
00:25:58we don't know what will happen, this brings a lot of insecurity to the farmer, right, we
00:26:01know that here in... you have an excess of dry rain there in the
00:26:05northeast, midwest, in the midwest, the climate becomes
00:26:09irregular, right, but as they say, it's being
00:26:12said that it's a very strong El Niño and look, from
00:26:161870, from 1870 to now, back
00:26:19then it was a disaster, right, you didn't
00:26:23have as many resources as you have today, they talk about
00:26:2640 million people, right, so it really was a very
00:26:30serious phenomenon, the... one becomes very apprehensive
00:26:34about making any investment with something that one has no
00:26:37control over, right, it's unpredictable, totally unpredictable what will happen with
00:26:41El Niño, this really retracts investments a lot
00:26:44and for the next few months,
00:26:48Pedro, what can we expect, perhaps a
00:26:51slight recovery, some data talks about a slight recovery and I also wanted
00:26:55to, just to finalize, for you to tell me a little about the
00:26:59import of machines, because we see in the...
00:27:11sector is seeing this issue? Look, imports have
00:27:14increased, especially from China, right? China started to invest here in
00:27:18Brazil, direct imports,
00:27:21to give you an idea, in
00:27:24four years it increased from 40 million dollars to
00:27:27213 million dollars and this
00:27:30year, despite sales falling, China is increasing 27%
00:27:34of its sales here in Brazil, so China has become a very
00:27:37strong player here in Brazil,
00:27:41ah, they, China still has a problem that it
00:27:45brings a lot of imported things and
00:27:48the crop plan, right, because to access the crop
00:27:51plan you have to have local content, when China
00:27:55imports directly, it doesn't, that's why people are talking a lot about bringing industry here
00:27:59and then yes, they would have local content, they would have...
00:28:03the
00:28:05crop plan, what happens is that in recent
00:28:09years the so-called Pix amendment has increased a lot, which are
00:28:13let's say, those purchases, that money that the deputy sends
00:28:17to his base and there are many
00:28:19municipalities that buy agricultural machinery, the government itself buys agricultural machinery
00:28:23and then you, by the current
00:28:26law, you are not obliged to have
00:28:30local content, then the... it's basically
00:28:33price and then the Chinese ends up winning because they
00:28:37have a very great competitiveness, the products in
00:28:40China are about 40% cheaper than
00:28:42ours, so China really has
00:28:46entered the market, it's not yet among the big
00:28:49producers because it doesn't have eh the
00:28:52product doesn't have a quality adapted
00:28:56to our market, the large
00:28:58farmer needs to have after-sales. "You
00:29:02don't have enough resale from China yet, so let's say,
00:29:06it's a player that is entering, it's not yet
00:29:09eh not that big, but it
00:29:13scares by its speed, right, because if it jumps from 40,
00:29:17I think this year it will go to 240, so it's at
00:29:20240 million dollars, right, it's really entering very
00:29:23quickly - into the market, the Brazilian
00:29:26market, those who build factories here in Brazil, the Brazilian
00:29:30market is open, right, that's why we have..." Americans,
00:29:34Europeans, Indians,
00:29:36eh, Koreans here in Brazil manufacturing agricultural machinery, if the
00:29:40Chinese enter, it's one more, one more