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00:00:00The report also highlights the Iranian government's crackdown on internal
00:00:03protests at the end of 2025, stating that
00:00:06Tehran used the death penalty as a tool of
00:00:09intimidation and control? Ricardo Cabral, an expert in international
00:00:13security strategy, joins us to provide an analysis.
00:00:16Hi Cabral, good afternoon to you, always welcome.
00:00:18Good afternoon, Kelia, it's always a pleasure to be here
00:00:22on Record News connection.
00:00:24right, and this and the Well, we always evaluate these war issues, we
00:00:27know that civilians just...
00:00:30suffer too much and also looking at history,
00:00:33these crimes end up going unpunished,
00:00:36right? Yes, look, Kerry,
00:00:40the war, right, for example,
00:00:43this school was next to an Iranian
00:00:46military facility, the Americans did not update their
00:00:50intelligence
00:00:53and launched a Tomahawk
00:00:57there, 120 people... In
00:01:00the United States, this is called, we call it collateral
00:01:03damage, but
00:01:05the investigations there blamed the Defense Intelligence
00:01:09Agency, there is a defense, the
00:01:12Pentagon has its own intelligence agency
00:01:15and they also blamed the artificial intelligence
00:01:18used in these
00:01:21attacks, basically the attacks in Iran were
00:01:25carried out using this type of instrument
00:01:29of artificial intelligence that identifies the target well, it is
00:01:33destroyed with precision, but you see, a Tomahawk
00:01:36was launched, the explosion of which caused the
00:01:40death of these children and it was not only
00:01:44this location,
00:01:47several American
00:01:50attacks against barracks also resulted in civilian deaths,
00:01:54of course, collateral effects and so on, but
00:01:57nowadays we have conditions to be more precise,
00:02:01unfortunately, what you said is true,
00:02:04right, unless the United States
00:02:08admits its fault, they do it, the military
00:02:12goes through a court martial, they will explain
00:02:15themselves, but they will hardly be punished, right, it remains
00:02:18the question of the unwanted collateral effect,
00:02:22nobody wanted to hit a school, but
00:02:25the excessive use of force, that's why
00:02:28this committee is talking about it, right, because
00:02:32excessive force is a war crime,
00:02:35exactly, now you mentioned an important detail a little
00:02:39while ago, I would like you to highlight
00:02:42it for us, because you know a lot about weapons,
00:02:45military strategy, right, Cabral, and you said: look,
00:02:49nowadays we could be more precise in an action during the
00:02:52war, with weapons that would not impact civilians so much,
00:02:56that is, do you believe that in
00:02:58resilience, very times of war, what is missing is precisely this...
00:03:01since there are technologies,
00:03:06there is no care, Kylie, there is the
00:03:08target, there is the target, there is a person of
00:03:12interest, there is the priority target,
00:03:16and that is part of the mission, the collateral effects,
00:03:20they will always be resolved by the
00:03:23question, there was no intention to hit
00:03:26civilians, but the priority, the priority of the
00:03:30military in war is the target, right, the civilian, the duty to
00:03:34protect, which is also part of the
00:03:37doctrine, etc. it is never
00:03:41always in the background in relation to the mission and the
00:03:45target, that's why many
00:03:47misfortunes happen, right, the Americans, just remember
00:03:51that during the Obama administration, that campaign of
00:03:54selective assassinations killed thousands of people, because
00:03:58there, what was the priority? Hit the target, it doesn't matter if he
00:04:02is with 30 people around, the Americans
00:04:05usually, not only the Americans, others, the Russians
00:04:09also do this a lot, Israel, right, when in
00:04:12combat the priority is to fulfill the mission, hit the
00:04:16target and, unfortunately, whoever is close, if they
00:04:19suffer death, some
00:04:23mutilation, it's war, the excuse is always that
00:04:27it was not intentional to attack
00:04:30civilians, exactly, well, look at this news
00:04:33that's just coming in for us, Cabral, the President of the United States says that
00:04:36he hopes the end of the war against Iran is
00:04:40near. Donald Trump is expected to meet with Gulf leaders on the
00:04:43sidelines of the UN General Assembly next week
00:04:47to discuss this conflict. The meeting should focus
00:04:50on Washington's plans for a post-war
00:04:53strategy.
00:04:57Trump said he heard that Iran. also heard in
00:05:00fact Iran directly without giving more details, the president
00:05:04stressed that Tehran does want to close a deal, we have already
00:05:08seen several statements from Trump before that he wants to close a deal, then he says he is not
00:05:11talking to Iran. So why
00:05:15is Trump saying this now, does it have to do
00:05:19with the weekend meetings, what is your assessment?
00:05:23Look, there's a lot of pressure on the Gulf, then we
00:05:26followed, right, we talk a lot and we
00:05:30are, we are, everyone is scared with this oil
00:05:33above $100,
00:05:36repercussion, we are entering winter in the
00:05:39northern hemisphere, in a few months winter will begin. So
00:05:43the stocks are very low, today
00:05:47we have news that, for example, from
00:05:50Wednesday to now, only six
00:05:53ships passed through the Gulf, six large oil tankers,
00:05:566 million barrels, each
00:06:00transporting 2 billion barrels of oil, that is,
00:06:0312 billion passed in more than
00:06:0724 hours, while the average was 20 ships
00:06:11per day, each with 2 million barrels, so you
00:06:14can imagine how it is, then there is the pressure
00:06:18of China at this moment, China is
00:06:21not helping, but it is in its own
00:06:24interest, pressing Iran and the United States
00:06:28for, as the Chinese call it, a little more
00:06:32rationality, Iran will not get everything it
00:06:35wants and neither will the Americans, so there is
00:06:39a lot of pressure for them to be rational.
00:06:42they both lift
00:06:46their blockades, I remember that Iran blocks
00:06:50ships that pass from other ports that are not
00:06:53its own and the Americans block Iran, so the idea
00:06:57of the Chinese is, look, let's lift the blockade and
00:07:01you will resolve the
00:07:04issues, but Mohsen Rezai,
00:07:08who is currently the strongman
00:07:11of Iran, said: look, there will only be a deal
00:07:15if the Americans give in to everything we
00:07:18demand, Trump says that the
00:07:22Iranians must give in to what he
00:07:25demands, so I don't know where Trump
00:07:28right, the crisis
00:07:31is deepening, you have a positive circular
00:07:35causation that affects the West a lot,
00:07:39which is the sale of oil, it generates dollars, which
00:07:42are invested in Europe and the United States, a little goes to
00:07:46Asia and from this money it starts to circulate
00:07:49and the payment methods of the Middle East are
00:07:53starting to collapse, because money is not
00:07:56coming in, countries like Qatar, Bahrain,
00:07:59Kuwait, right, that don't export, are not exporting
00:08:03almost anything and now Saudi Arabia is also
00:08:06going through this problem, they start to
00:08:10pressure the countries there.
00:08:13In this case, Iran will only be sensitive to China and
00:08:17Russia, Russia is insensitive to talking to
00:08:21Iran about this, quite the contrary, it is supplying
00:08:24material, while China, because it is being
00:08:27harmed, is starting to pressure Iran and the
00:08:31United States, right, now they are starting to feel
00:08:34it at home, a gallon of diesel is
00:08:37costing more than $6, a gallon of gasoline more than
00:08:41four and... there will be elections in November, Trump's
00:08:45popularity is at its lowest and the
00:08:48Democrats have opened more than seven points
00:08:52in relation to the Republicans, so the pressure now
00:08:55is also on the United States, within the United
00:08:59States he prohibited the export of diesel, he should
00:09:02prohibit gasoline and gas, right, with
00:09:06that Europe will be the most affected, it will
00:09:09lose another major supplier and the countries
00:09:12are all very anxious with the
00:09:16arrival of winter and with the worsening of their
00:09:19stocks, Europe is afraid of 60% of the
00:09:23stocks it should have at this time of year and
00:09:27without prospect of completing the minimum
00:09:30level to get through the winter, look at the problem, Kerry, exactly and
00:09:34the problem can escalate, we are still checking here with the
00:09:38international agencies, but information from a North
00:09:40American TV channel says that Iran's forces
00:09:44would have shot down at least two North
00:09:46American military drones, we are, of course, checking all
00:09:50this, but Cabral, if this information
00:09:54is confirmed, how does this negotiation between Trump
00:09:57and Iran turn out, can anything change?
00:10:01Look, Trump,
00:10:05we, we talked about his election, Trump is
00:10:08stable, right, he can decide to
00:10:11open action, for example, he signed that
00:10:14memorandum to unblock the Gulf, he can do something
00:10:18similar, so far the pressure he is
00:10:21under is even from within the cabinet,
00:10:25Jared Kushner, Marco Rubio are
00:10:29pressing him to reduce
00:10:32the demands on Iran, Scott
00:10:36Bessent, who is the Treasury Secretary and is
00:10:39responsible for implementing economic
00:10:42sanctions against Iran, he comes from another
00:10:45plan, he says, look, this is the moment
00:10:49of greatest resistance from, Iran is already
00:10:53yielding, it has already... We have already passed the point of
00:10:56no return, there is food shortages
00:11:00in Iran, they don't have electricity all
00:11:02day, they don't get water every
00:11:06day, what was a water shortage of one day a week for
00:11:10rationing, now there is no water several days a
00:11:13week, so there is a lack of food, so he thinks
00:11:17that pressuring Iran at this moment with an
00:11:21economic agenda and maintaining tightening the blockade will yield results.
00:11:25But it's destroying the Americans, right? Well,
00:11:29it's a very complex situation, let's talk
00:11:32now about another dramatic situation, the war in
00:11:35Ukraine, Russia bombed the capital Kyiv and
00:11:39other cities with drones and missiles this morning, Cabral,
00:11:43more than 20 people were injured according to authorities and at least
00:11:46eight regions reported damage. In Sumy and
00:11:49Odesa, energy infrastructure was hit. The bombings
00:11:52happened hours after the US Congress
00:11:56approved an important sanctions bill against Moscow,
00:11:59the goal is to intensify economic pressure on Russia
00:12:03due to the invasion of Ukraine. The bill
00:12:06was now sent to President Trump for sanction.
00:12:10Volodymyr Zelensky classified the decision as an extremely
00:12:13powerful tool to end the war. He also said
00:12:17that tougher sanctions were essential to force
00:12:20Moscow to return to the negotiating table,
00:12:24Cabral. Look, Peskov
00:12:27just said that the approval, the approval
00:12:30by Congress, if Trump signs it, he can veto
00:12:34it, right, but the law was passed, the law
00:12:37is bipartisan, it is the law of the late Senator
00:12:41Lindsey, I believe that it is indeed a very
00:12:44strong instrument to
00:12:47bring the Russians to the table more flexibly,
00:12:50see Ukraine is doing its part, it is attacking the
00:12:53refineries, it has taken out... only this week, six
00:12:57refineries, right, with more than 1 million barrels of
00:13:00oil, then there's more gasoline, look at the diesel, you have to
00:13:04divide that, right, 400,000
00:13:08400,000 liters of gasoline plus the diesel
00:13:11etc, all of this has already come out, it's pressure
00:13:14on the Russians, right, now if the
00:13:18Russians, a Russian characteristic is
00:13:23resilient, the Russians are very resilient and their
00:13:27expectation is war until 2028,
00:13:30they got support at the BRICS meeting from India
00:13:34and China said that it will
00:13:36also continue to buy oil and supply material.
00:13:39Look, American pressure is important,
00:13:43but the Russians, I may be
00:13:47very wrong, they will not give up Donetsk,
00:13:51Zaporizhzhia, if Ukraine does not give in, there will not be
00:13:55more attacks or fewer attacks, American
00:13:58sanctions, Peskov said, this will only hinder
00:14:01and prolong the war against Ukraine, that is, the Russian
00:14:05response is, you can impose sanctions, we are
00:14:08not worried, yes, we have even been following
00:14:12here that no sanctions stop the war, right,
00:14:15so you see, it's a situation that we don't know if it will really be
00:14:18effective, right, looking at what has already happened at other times in this
00:14:22conflict, now Ukraine is proposing... Cabral,
00:14:25record spending on defense already for next year,
00:14:282027. According to authorities, as the cost of the war with Russia
00:14:32increases, the country needs more financial support from
00:14:36partner countries. The forecast is that defense spending
00:14:40will reach 110 billion dollars next
00:14:43year, an increase of 12% compared to this
00:14:46year. They represent about 2/3 of total
00:14:50expenditures in a budget proposal for
00:14:532027. The Minister of Finance stated that Ukraine will
00:14:57need more than 52
00:15:00billion dollars in international financial aid. The
00:15:04daily cost of the war rose, do you know to how much?
00:15:08190 million dollars this year compared
00:15:11to 116 million in 2022,
00:15:15when this war began. Cabral, impressive numbers,
00:15:19huh? Yes, and all
00:15:22of this funded by the European
00:15:25continent, because Ukraine is bankrupt, Ukraine has no money for anything
00:15:29and what is happening, this is the other
00:15:32side, war usually has several facets,
00:15:36right, and this is an economic
00:15:38facet that is also dragging
00:15:42Russia down, right, the Russian sovereign fund has already gone
00:15:46to space, public debt has practically
00:15:48doubled, inflation, according to official numbers,
00:15:52is controlled, but there is a very big inflation
00:15:56problem there, they have very, very high
00:15:59interest rates, they increase their dependence on
00:16:02China, as China supplies a large
00:16:06part of the electronic components and other components that
00:16:10Russia needs to wage war, there is the
00:16:14issue of personnel shortage, right, Russia has
00:16:18a chronic problem of personnel shortage like Ukraine,
00:16:21but you see, as I said, Russia is not
00:16:24worried about this, Russia is worried
00:16:28about the issue of, let's say, the
00:16:32survival of the regime, a defeat in Ukraine
00:16:35could mean not only the
00:16:38end of Putin's regime, but
00:16:41also a possible fragmentation, this is
00:16:45a conversation that is happening within Russia, Russia cannot
00:16:48admit defeat, and that's it, if
00:16:51you remember some conversations, then come the threats
00:16:54from Medvedev, right, from
00:16:58other elements of the
00:17:01Russian leadership, saying, in
00:17:04extreme terms, we always have
00:17:08nuclear weapons, we will not be defeated on the battlefield,
00:17:11it's a very dangerous thing, right,
00:17:15Ursula von der Leyen has already talked about this, Marine Le Pen commented
00:17:18on this, right, look, we are at
00:17:21a very dangerous moment in the war, yes, well,
00:17:25dangerous moments of geopolitical
00:17:27tensions, right, tensions with war and commercial
00:17:31tensions, we often see countries reorganizing
00:17:34themselves, look at this news, I would really like your analysis.
00:17:38The Prime Minister of Canada gave a speech in the European Parliament
00:17:41this Thursday. Macron stated that Canada
00:17:45and Europe must ally to protect
00:17:48markets, democracies and the rule of law in a world
00:17:52dominated by the United States and China. Yesterday, the
00:17:55leader of the European Commission stated that Canada could become
00:17:59the first associate member of the Bloc.
00:18:03Guess what, Donald Trump spoke after the declaration. The president
00:18:07criticized the measure and threatened to
00:18:10cut trade with Europe. stated that he is not seeking
00:18:13to form a third bloc to act as a rival to Washington and
00:18:17Beijing. However, he reinforced that no one
00:18:20can dictate Canada's international agreements,
00:18:23Cabral. Look, this is a
00:18:27complex moment for the United States, largely Trump's fault,
00:18:30who was not skilled enough to
00:18:33close a deal with Canada.
00:18:37Things are extreme, Canada has a serious problem,
00:18:41it only has a surplus with the United States, its
00:18:45other two big partners, the European
00:18:48Union and China, it has huge
00:18:51deficits, more than 20 billion in trade
00:18:55deficit with China and
00:18:58almost 10 in deficit with the
00:19:01European Union, so what is left
00:19:05for it, right, to try to
00:19:08build alliances for the clash that
00:19:12is the fundamental clash for it, which is
00:19:15this alliance with the European Union aims
00:19:19basically at what? It aims to get better
00:19:22conditions in the negotiation with the United
00:19:26States. Now, the United States will not stop
00:19:29trade with the European Union and much less with Canada. At this moment they
00:19:33depend a lot on Canadian oil. So
00:19:36it's a bargain, but we have to see that it's a
00:19:40movement that also interests the Europeans,
00:19:44because Europe is also having very tough negotiations,
00:19:47not only with the United States, but also with China and these
00:19:51alliances, that's why they made an agreement with Mercosur,
00:19:54that's why they want an agreement with Canada,
00:19:58they will seek agreements with Japan and
00:20:01Korea and with the countries of the Middle East, this
00:20:05meeting that Trump will have with the Gulf Cooperation
00:20:08Council, there will also be a meeting with Ursula
00:20:12von der Leyen, they are trying to organize, which is a way of
00:20:16what? You balance the
00:20:18game in trade, of the geoeconomic pressures,
00:20:22when you have two big actors that are
00:20:26extremely aggressive against
00:20:28smaller partners, and look, the European Union is not that
00:20:32small, the European Union is the third, if we consider
00:20:36the totality, it's the third bloc in the world, hence also
00:20:40another concern, adding another country to this, another
00:20:43country, you mentioned the news, the United Kingdom,
00:20:47they are negotiating with the United Kingdom, doing with... people to bring the United
00:20:51Kingdom back, well, look, there's still more news
00:20:55coming in, all in real time, because still talking about
00:20:58Canada, Cabral, the country formally requested
00:21:02to join the military coalition led by the United Kingdom, the
00:21:06force, a group of 10 NATO member states is a rapid
00:21:09response military partnership. Canada, already a member of the North
00:21:13Atlantic Alliance, seeks closer military cooperation with European
00:21:16nations in an attempt to
00:21:20reduce dependence on the United States, so how do you see this
00:21:23whole movement? Look, it's another
00:21:27issue, for example, we could talk about several
00:21:31things about armament here, but I won't mention that, everyone, the
00:21:34European Union depends on American technological
00:21:38input, but this technological
00:21:41input serves as a weapon of
00:21:44coercion, intimidation, right,
00:21:47you force an
00:21:51alignment, right, that is, the United States can simply not
00:21:54approve the sale of weapons to the European Union, as is happening
00:21:57now, they need air defense systems,
00:22:01they, they decided to prioritize their
00:22:04allies in the Gulf at the expense of themselves,
00:22:07the Europeans, so the attempt by the
00:22:11European Union, Canada, and adding to this, South
00:22:15Korea and Japan to create a new
00:22:18technological hub that allows
00:22:21to replace some armaments that are
00:22:25supplied almost exclusively by
00:22:28the Americans, right, for example, long-range missiles
00:22:32are from the Americans that have them, right, missiles
00:22:35with beyond-visual-range for fighters, only
00:22:38the Americans have systems, these
00:22:42artificial intelligence
00:22:44systems, Europe is far behind, right, so
00:22:48it means it's a way of... of trying to have
00:22:51strategic autonomy,
00:22:54expanding, right, for you to get out of an alignment,
00:22:58you see the price that the Europeans are paying for not
00:23:01aligning themselves, because if it depended on the United States, they would have invaded the
00:23:05Gulf along with the Europeans, and the Europeans said:
00:23:08no, we are committed to Ukraine, we don't have
00:23:12money or strength to go to the Middle East,
00:23:15so these measures, including Brazil should think
00:23:19a lot about this. in having autonomy from these big centers
00:23:22not to be subordinate, right? well, there's another
00:23:26piece of news coming in here, it's also hot news, Cabral,
00:23:30the influential sister of the North Korean leader defended North
00:23:33Korea's nuclear arsenal. According to
00:23:36Kim Yo-jong, Pyongyang's position as a
00:23:40nuclear power is absolute and cannot be
00:23:43reversed under any circumstances.
00:23:46She also stated that the country's nuclear arsenal contributes greatly
00:23:50to deterring the outrageous acts of international
00:23:53criminals, this is the meaning of these
00:23:57weapons and classified as idiots those who expect
00:24:01denuclearization. Recently, Donald Trump says
00:24:04Pyongyang has 57 very powerful
00:24:07nuclear weapons while the UN estimates the number
00:24:11to be between 80 and 120.
00:24:15Cabral, look, the way the
00:24:19Russians are doing with North
00:24:22Korea, they will very quickly reach something
00:24:25close to 150 warheads, this is
00:24:28true, there is a pressure from the
00:24:30Europeans in general on North Korea
00:24:34to dismantle its nuclear arsenal, they will not
00:24:38do that, and they are
00:24:40attentive to the nuclearization of South
00:24:44Korea and Japan, Japan openly
00:24:47discusses the construction.
00:24:58it's a problem of enriching uranium, same for Korea
00:25:01South and both North Korea and
00:25:05Russia and China see
00:25:08this as a breakdown of
00:25:11the balance that exists in the Asia
00:25:14Pacific. The Americans observe this very
00:25:17carefully and
00:25:20point to the increase in the Chinese arsenal,
00:25:23which should reach 100 warheads by
00:25:27the end of this decade, and the
00:25:31modernization of the Russian nuclear arsenal, which
00:25:35is largely Soviet. They now practically have a
00:25:38new nuclear arsenal, even more modern than the
00:25:41Americans'. So the Americans look at this and
00:25:45are not, I wouldn't say encouraging, but allowing
00:25:48the ambitions... of Japan and Korea, who
00:25:52feel pressured
00:25:54by North Korea, by China and, in Japan's case,
00:25:58in addition to these two, by Russia, to nuclearize, uhm.
00:26:02This is a danger, right? We
00:26:05know how it starts, we
00:26:09don't know how it ends. The North Korean regime
00:26:12always plays high. When pressured,
00:26:16it goes forward. This week, query, they carried out a
00:26:19large exercise with missiles of various
00:26:23ranges: short, medium, and long range, with
00:26:26what everyone was astonished by: missiles
00:26:30that were nuclear, but without a nuclear warhead.
00:26:41What are these guys doing? The North Korean
00:26:44regime cannot be
00:26:46coerced to try
00:26:50a otherwise they will
00:26:53respond. There was a time when Russia
00:26:57could convince them, China
00:26:59currently has autonomy. The
00:27:03North Korean nuclear
00:27:06and they manage to say no to the Chinese and
00:27:09Russians, imagine to the Americans. Well,
00:27:13at a time when we are really seeing countries arming themselves,
00:27:17many really using this issue of having nuclear
00:27:20weapons as protection and without transparency,
00:27:24right? Today the situation is very complicated, Cabral.
00:27:28Yes, the International Atomic Energy Agency
00:27:31failed
00:27:33largely, but look, whose fault was it? You want, I'll
00:27:37list, I'll talk about the culprits, for
00:27:41example, Pakistan nuclear weapons,
00:27:44built nuclear weapons, detonated bombs. India too. Why weren't
00:27:48they punished? Because they were allies of the Soviet
00:27:52Union and the United States, right? Israel itself,
00:27:54Israel has nuclear weapons. How many weapons? No one
00:27:58knows, but it also was never questioned about
00:28:02the fact of not having nuclear weapons. North Korea,
00:28:05Iden, an ally of China and an ally of the Soviet
00:28:08Union, not the Soviet Union, because they didn't have nuclear weapons at that time,
00:28:12but an ally of Russia. So we had several countries that
00:28:16circumvented the nuclear
00:28:19weapons blockade, and currently the problem tends to
00:28:23worsen, because look,
00:28:26let's play fair and square here.
00:28:30Iran will have nuclear weapons.
00:28:33It apparently has agreements with North Korea and Pakistan
00:28:36so that when this confusion is over,
00:28:40it will have nuclear weapons because it sees balance. If Israel has it, I
00:28:44have to have it. Just to conclude, and within
00:28:47this conversation, it's like, if Israel has it, I have to have it.
00:28:50If Iran has it, I, Saudi Arabia, have to have it. The
00:28:54United Arab Emirates has already said, if Saudi Arabia has it, Iran
00:28:57has it, I also have to have it. Egypt has already told everyone,
00:29:01look, the Middle East
00:29:04nuclearized is a powder keg. Ah, I also want to have nuclear
00:29:08weapons, okay? Look at the mess you're making with
00:29:12this. Well, these countries all,
00:29:15we hope for peace, Cabral, it's always important to
00:29:19hear you. Thank you very much for the analysis. Have a good afternoon. See
00:29:22you next time. Thank you very much. Good afternoon everyone.
00:29:25And I hope we stay away from this, that this doesn't go forward.
00:29:29Exactly. Thank you once again. The Brazilian government
00:29:32publishes a decree readjusting the Bolsa Família. After the break,
00:29:36I'll tell you everything. See you soon.
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