Google Cloud Speech-to-Text API (Chirp) + Gemini 2.5 Flash Non-Thinking. Treat it as a searchable index of what was broadcast, not a quotation record.
00:00:00very influential, from Teotônio Vilela to
00:00:03Renan Calheiros, to Artur
00:00:06Lira, it has an enormous trajectory, Alagoas always collaborates and
00:00:10contributes, from a public
00:00:13policy perspective, to national policy. We have Artur Lira and Renan Calheiros
00:00:17in confrontation
00:00:20some polls, he reaches above again, both are candidates for the Senate. In this case,
00:00:23Renan Calheiros is on his son's ticket, Renan Filho, and
00:00:26Artur Lira is on JHC's ticket to try
00:00:30for the Senate. At this moment, we are seeing Artur
00:00:34Lira ahead of Renan Calheiros, but
00:00:37this is not necessarily
00:00:40the final result, because
00:00:43Marina JHC, who is the wife of candidate
00:00:47JHC, is in the lead in the state
00:00:50according to research institutes. Husband and wife doing very
00:00:53well, exactly. That's what we'll be following tonight,
00:00:57who will ultimately come out in the first or second spot for Alagoas.
00:01:01It's possible that Marina JHC will
00:01:05remove one of these two chiefs we're seeing on your screen, Artur Lira, the former speaker
00:01:09of the chamber, or Renan Calheiros, the famous
00:01:12senator with a very long
00:01:14Eduardo Ridel that career, from the Collor government until today in national politics. To Sergipe, but
00:01:17first, a new jump in the national count.
00:01:21Can we put the national screen for us? We were at 21% of the polls,
00:01:25we are now at almost 30, we reached 27%.
00:01:29There they are... the same disposition, right? Flávio Bolsonaro with 16
00:01:32million votes, Lula 3 million
00:01:35and force a second votes behind, it's 50 to 41, and abstentions
00:01:38jumped from 5 to 8 million.
00:01:418 million Brazilians who decided not to choose, or voted
00:01:45blank, or voted null, or didn't even vote. You know what would be interesting
00:01:48for us to try to find out, Edu, is what votes are entering
00:01:52the TSE computers. This question for our
00:01:55central to bring us now, because what happens when we are already 1 and a half
00:01:59hours into the count, right?
00:02:02Judging, taking as a basis that the polls closed at five, the data
00:02:05started to be forwarded to the Superior Electoral Court. It is very
00:02:09possible that this distance that Flávio
00:02:11is opening from Lula is being motivated by the
00:02:16Haddad is arriving at the hotel from arrival of votes from the states where Flávio has a lead, right?
00:02:19Notably the southern states, which traditionally are very quick
00:02:23in counting. This could be one of the reasons
00:02:27why Flávio Bolsonaro is
00:02:30always in the lead in the chart, and
00:02:33votes from the Northeast usually arrive later. It could be, it's a hypothesis, so it's interesting
00:02:37to know the proportion of vote arrivals. Anyway, the votes will
00:02:41arrive, in the end the result will have been consecrated. It's the
00:02:44anxiety of the count that causes this question, but it's a way
00:02:48for us to understand the reality we're narrating, right? That's it. Rio Grande do Norte
00:02:51has 30% of the count. Bahia has 16%. It confirms what you're saying.
00:02:55I think the progress, they're not that advanced. Let's see how the dispute is going
00:02:59there. In the Federal District, we have the Senate seats. There are two
00:03:03seats, huh? Two seats in this election. Michele Bolsonaro from the PL has
00:03:0628 and Biakisses from the PL has 27. It's the
00:03:10pure blood ticket there, right? The PL is taking both
00:03:13seats at this moment. 91%. Look,
00:03:17we're getting there, we're getting there. How is the DF government doing? Let's see. Let's
00:03:20show the people now how the DF government is doing. A snapshot with
00:03:2391% of the probable reelection of Celina
00:03:27Leão 49.8, or if she doesn't make it.
00:03:31If she continues with this performance, he'll take the dispute to the second
00:03:34round,
00:03:37but we have to last there in the DF, right? You see the fourth place candidate there from
00:03:40Novo is pushing. We have a confirmed reelection, it seems to be in Mato
00:03:44Grosso. Mato Grosso with Eduardo Ridel. We'll bring you that
00:03:47information with the screen in a little while. Yes, I was saying, Edu, that there in the
00:03:51DF, this fourth place candidate is pushing for a second
00:03:55round. He's the candidate from Novo, he's having
00:03:59a performance that... is forcing a second round, because for Celina
00:04:02Leão to reach 50, 50.1%, whatever
00:04:05it is, she needs to beat the trio there. Mato Grosso closed
00:04:09the bill, folks, please confirm it for us. We'll confirm it in a bit.
00:04:13Before that, let's go to Mato Grosso do Sul, Cris. Mato Grosso do Sul
00:04:16has the following numbers: Eduardo Ridel from the
00:04:19PP has 67, Fábio Trade from the PT
00:04:23with 23%. In sequence, João Henrique Catan
00:04:27and Delsídio Amaral, look at him there with 1% of the votes. That's
00:04:31it, Delsídio Amaral, who returns to politics, he was from the PT, he was
00:04:34from the Dilma government, he fought with the PT, he was even
00:04:38arrested in the scandals that occurred at the
00:04:41time, and abandoned politics for a long
00:04:44period. Now he returns to try for an elective office,
00:04:48and for governor, he left the legislative, went to the executive. He
00:04:51had been a senator, hadn't he? He had been elected by the PT, broke with the
00:04:55PT, a big confusion there at that time in the Dilma government, in
00:04:59fact the dispute is between Eduardo Ridel and the others,
00:05:02but Ridel has an enormous advantage, with more than
00:05:06double the votes of his opponent. We'll show you
00:05:10the dispute almost closed in Mato Grosso do Sul,
00:05:13before that let's jump to Sergipe. The state of
00:05:16Sergipe has the following vote configuration at this moment, with more
00:05:20than 35% of the polls counted, Fábio from PSD has
00:05:2358 against
00:05:2636% for Valmir, for Francisquinho from Republicans.
00:05:30Dr. Elton has problems with justice at this moment, so the votes are not
00:05:34considered, but 4.07 appear there, they don't make up
00:05:37the valid votes, that's what I'm referring to, Tati Cristina de Jesus
00:05:41appears on. Piauí calling, let's go to the data for the state of
00:05:45Piauí.
00:05:49You can check with us, new numbers for the dispute in Piauí, where
00:05:52Rafael Fonteles from the PT has 68%. This is a bill
00:05:56that should be defined tonight. João, Joel
00:05:59Rodrigues from the PP, 29%.
00:06:03Ah, so you have 42% of the votes. Piauí is one of the seven
00:06:07Brazilian states where you certainly have a definition this Sunday. Note,
00:06:11Edu, he will be the first governor elected by the PT in this first
00:06:14round, right? Rafael Fonteles. The PT is not
00:06:18expected to have a large number of governors, surprisingly.
00:06:22Eh, there are many disputes eh for a second
00:06:25round. There are other allies of President Lula
00:06:29in dispute eh to head
00:06:32the state governments, but this is a PT
00:06:36governor who will surely be elected in the first round. Rio de Janeiro
00:06:39next. Let's go to the numbers from Rio de Janeiro. The dispute at this point. For you,
00:06:43Douglas Ruas from the PL maintains the lead in the count with
00:06:4715% of the polls counted,
00:06:5050.17 to 41.21 for
00:06:54Eduardo Paes. You already know that Garotinho has a subjudice
00:06:57candidacy. William Sirido Pissol, who is a councilman, has
00:07:012.81%.
00:07:04And in São Paulo, what is the reality in the state of São Paulo? Let's go to the
00:07:07numbers. São Paulo has accelerated now, right?
00:07:1028% of the polls counted. You have Tarcísio de Freitas from the
00:07:14Republicans with 65%, Fernando Haddad from the PT with
00:07:1733% of the votes, more than 7 million
00:07:21votes already counted in the state of São Paulo. In this
00:07:25dispute, Fernando
00:07:28where he will make statements at the end of this first
00:07:32round, okay? So both candidates mobilized
00:07:35a lot in this final stretch, Fernando
00:07:38Haddad trying to bring votes from the national
00:07:42dispute to the state of São Paulo, but he faces the difficulty
00:07:46of the good approval of the government Tarcísio de Freitas, with
00:07:4965% at this moment. Tarcísio also has
00:07:53the support, ah, go ahead, Cris, you can speak. I
00:07:56was commenting here with our central, that
00:08:00we should return to the transmission, because I wanted to comment on the position
00:08:04of Tarcísio de Freitas. This election of Tarcísio de
00:08:06Freitas projects him with great confidence for
00:08:092030. Tarcísio de Freitas, who
00:08:13was considered to be a presidential candidate
00:08:16in this election and was waiting
00:08:19in fact he also preferred
00:08:23to run for governor of the state of São
00:08:26Paulo because he already had a much easier election
00:08:30projected, an almost guaranteed reelection, and then
00:08:33Bolsonaro chooses Flávio Bolsonaro
00:08:36to contest the election for the PL, so Tarcísio
00:08:40remains in the Republicans, he remains.
00:08:43as a candidate for reelection for the government of São Paulo, but he is an
00:08:46extremely important player for 2030.
00:08:50He projects himself with this victory, which will surely
00:08:53be concluded tonight, a significant victory
00:08:57in São Paulo, confirming his governing style, a style,
00:09:00a tone of moderation,
00:09:03that seeks to have transit in other wings, without being disloyal to his
00:09:07godfather, who is Jair Bolsonaro, and with
00:09:10deliveries in the area of infrastructure. A government marked
00:09:14by privatizations, by
00:09:16concessions, in the liberal style, as is to the taste of
00:09:19conservative parties. He is liberal in economic
00:09:23management, in the management and issues
00:09:27related to infrastructure etc. He is conservative in
00:09:30customs to the taste of Republicans. Therefore, if
00:09:33Tarcísio de Freitas is elected in São
00:09:36Paulo, Cleitinho is elected in
00:09:39Minas Gerais and in Espírito Santo we also have a
00:09:42candidate from the Republicans. We have the Republicans governing
00:09:46eventually almost 40% of the Brazilian
00:09:49population, that's quite a lot, Cristina Lemos. The first governor
00:09:52to be reelected this Sunday is the governor of Mato Grosso do Sul,
00:09:56Eduardo Ridel. He has had 67, he has, right?
00:10:0067.32% of the votes. Why do we say
00:10:03mathematically? Because it hasn't reached 100% of the polls. It has
00:10:0685% of the polls, but the second place in this dispute
00:10:10can no longer turn the game around. He no longer has the conditions and votes to
00:10:14turn this game around in Mato Grosso do Sul, which is Fábio Trad
00:10:17from the PT. So we were in a dispute just now where the PT
00:10:21was leading, the PP was in second place, now it's inverted, right?
00:10:25Eduardo Ridel, from the Progressistas, pardon me, is
00:10:29mathematically elected with
00:10:3167.39%. It is a case of re-election. Fábio
00:10:35Trade with 23% of
00:10:38the votes, Cris, at this point, confirms exactly what we were saying earlier, right? It was
00:10:42a guaranteed election, there it is, it's
00:10:4567%, we're going to move towards 70%, right? of the intentions,
00:10:49of the votes for Eduardo Ridel. It's worth
00:10:52doing a recap of... the profile of
00:10:55Eduardo Ridel. So he's a governor from
00:10:59the Progressive Party. He's 57
00:11:02years old, he's a moderate, known for being a center-right
00:11:06moderate. He has a strong connection to the productive
00:11:09sector, aligned with conservative economic
00:11:13liberal agendas. There, at the
00:11:16head of the government of Mato Grosso, he has a technical management and he is even
00:11:19classified as a discreet technocrat, right?
00:11:23Prioritizes efficiency of the public machine, fiscal
00:11:26responsibility. Ridel's political base is the
00:11:30countryside. He was former president of the State Agricultural Federation.
00:11:33It is agribusiness that is the
00:11:36link for
00:11:39leads him now to reelection, and there in the state he supports
00:11:43Flávio Bolsonaro, but he is not a radical anti-PTist. He maintains
00:11:46dialogue with the federal government normally, and is
00:11:49pragmatic, as we said before, and his government, the
00:11:53government of Eduardo Ridel, ended with
00:11:5675% popular approval. That is, a governor
00:11:59who delivers the government with more than 70% approval
00:12:03rating, he is almost a
00:12:07- it's almost a given that he'll be re-elected to
00:12:09office in a re-election attempt, Edu. Now let's go to the dispute in
00:12:13Paraná. You already know that the first governor to be re-elected in the
00:12:16country was Eduardo Ridel from Mato Grosso do Sul, and now in
00:12:20Paraná, the count is very advanced,
00:12:2282% of the polls already open.
00:12:2550% of the votes for Sérgio Moro and half
00:12:28of that, 25%, for Sandro Alex from the
00:12:32PSD. So the group of Governor Ratinho Júnior, elected once,
00:12:36reelected in Paraná, is
00:12:38now enduring a second place to go to
00:12:42the second round. If more votes don't come in for
00:12:45Moro, turning this game around already in the first round, right? Well, according to
00:12:49the research institutes, what counts is the ballot box, right? What counts today is the ballot box, and
00:12:53the indication there in Paraná is for an indefinite situation in
00:12:57the second round. It's Moro
00:13:00disputing in the second round, probably with Sandro
00:13:03Alex. Then we'll have an interesting situation, which
00:13:07is the search for votes, the search for alliances with those who
00:13:11were left behind on the road. In this case, Requião Filho's
00:13:14PDT will certainly tip the scales when
00:13:18trying to reach an agreement for the second round. It's unlikely that the
00:13:22PDT will close with Sérgio Moro. Sérgio Moro
00:13:25will have to face the rest of his opponents in the second
00:13:29round, even with all the governability, right? Because he needs to have a majority, although the PL
00:13:33is expressive in the Legislative Assembly of Paraná, you have difficulties.
00:13:37Anyway, you are in a live multiplatform coverage here on Record,
00:13:40eh News and on R7 on
00:13:43Record Plus. Soon I want to hear Rafael Algarte's voice in our
00:13:47analysis room, eh at any moment we'll go back
00:13:51into Fantástico with new data for you. Look,
00:13:54the counting is very fast, you have 36% of the polls
00:13:57counted for president of the republic, but for state government you have
00:14:0133% in São Paulo, in Rio de Janeiro 23%, in
00:14:05Minas 34%, 27%, in Bahia
00:14:08and you've already seen more than 70% there
00:14:12in the federal district, now the numbers from Rio Grande do Sul, let's
00:14:16follow together the dispute between Luciano Zuco of the
00:14:19PL and Juliana Brizola of the PDT, 65%
00:14:23of the votes counted. 58 to 31, Edu, remember I said
00:14:27earlier that we could comment on the situation of Gabriel Souza, look,
00:14:30Gabriel Souza is the vice president of
00:14:33Eduardo Leite, right? There in Rio Grande do Sul, and he had
00:14:37a very important role there during
00:14:40that crisis caused by the flood
00:14:44in 2024 which
00:14:46caused serious damage to the state of Rio Grande do Sul. Gabriel
00:14:50Souza was the right-hand man of Governor Eduardo Leite in that
00:14:53situation, and he is in third place, and he is precisely the one who
00:14:57can take the election in Rio Grande do Sul to the
00:15:00second round, even though Zuco has favoritism there in the
00:15:04state, and Gabriel Souza is a
00:15:08politician with an extremely high
00:15:11academic intellectual level, a Harvard education.
00:15:15That's why his performance was so important for Eduardo
00:15:19Leite. Eduardo Leite himself seems to be taking
00:15:22a sabbatical, Edu, he
00:15:26Paulo, to work in the private sector, because
00:15:30Eduardo Leite actually wanted to be a candidate for
00:15:33president of the Republic, and he couldn't get
00:15:37his party, the PSD, to accept
00:15:40him as a candidate, he couldn't make his candidacy viable
00:15:43at that point. Caiado leaves
00:15:46União Brasil, migrates to the
00:15:49PSD to be the PSD candidate.
00:15:52However, he manages to get the president of the PSD
00:15:56to be the vice president, who is Gilberto Cassabi.
00:15:59Therefore, Cassabi's bet was
00:16:01on Caiado, and Gabriel and Gabriel Souza, who
00:16:05was Eduardo's vice.
00:16:07He was left behind, Eduardo Leite was left behind and Gabriel Souza is in
00:16:11third. Cristina Lemos, we have live information, a storm
00:16:15hit the north of Rio Grande do Sul. At least 30 cities were
00:16:18affected and reporter Jairo Bastos brings us the
00:16:22live information. Hi Jairo, good
00:16:23evening.
00:16:27Hello, good evening, good evening everyone. According to the
00:16:29state civil defense, incidents were recorded in
00:16:3337 cities in the northern region of the state, in
00:16:3630. Damages were confirmed
00:16:40due to the storm, more than 13,000 people were
00:16:43affected and 80 are in shelters. The
00:16:47most affected municipality was Júlio
00:16:50de Castilhos where houses had their roofs torn off by the force of the
00:16:53wind and more than 9,000 people were left without
00:16:57power. In Estação, the hail damaged
00:17:00roofs, in Três Palmeiras, the rain and
00:17:03hail caused damages. Tarps and tiles
00:17:06were. to the population,
00:17:09voting occurred normally since the
00:17:12ballot boxes have batteries. We return to the studio. That's
00:17:15right, it's a good thing they have batteries, right, Jairo? Thank you very much. In many voting
00:17:19locations, in the largest electoral colleges, you also have a generator outside.
00:17:23The same reality we had in Rio Grande do Sul, we had in Paraná,
00:17:2614 cities were in the dark. Cris, to vote, I
00:17:30went twice. The first time there was a 30-minute line here in São Paulo, here in
00:17:34São Paulo, and I went home. I said, looked at the sky, it was going to rain. I
00:17:38said, I think I'll have to come at the time of the storm. Much later it wouldn't work because I had
00:17:41to be live. Exactly, look at the risk. So I went back there around 2:30 in the afternoon and
00:17:45then I stayed for 20 minutes, but in my voting location I heard reports of
00:17:491 hour queues. After all, there were 25
00:17:52keystrokes from people today, an expressive,
00:17:55important vote that is advancing. Let's find out, speaking of which, how the situation is in
00:17:59Santa Catarina. The numbers for governor are these, Jorginho
00:18:03Melo, closer to reelection, closer and
00:18:06closer. If we were at 70% of the polls counted,
00:18:10mathematically there would be no more comeback, but there are 50% of the polls, there are
00:18:14many votes to come in, but those that have come in are giving extreme
00:18:17favoritism to Jorginho, Jorginho Melo from the PL. Those who
00:18:20follow us here directly from Santa Catarina know that he is the
00:18:24favorite governor to be reelected, Gelson Merízio
00:18:27from the PSD, PSB, pardon me,
00:18:2916%, João Rodrigues and Marcelo
00:18:33Brigadeiro, we have a new partial for president of the republic, we made a new jump
00:18:36last time. when we showed you, we were at 31%,
00:18:4010% more, look, 41% of the polls
00:18:42counted, more than 50 thousand valid votes, the
00:18:46reality is this: Flávio Bolsonaro has
00:18:4924 million votes, 50%, at this moment, followed
00:18:52by Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva who has 41% of the
00:18:56votes, almost 20 million votes, and Augusto Curi and Ronaldo
00:18:59Caiado follow in the third and fourth count. How are
00:19:03the abstentions? 10 million
00:19:06Brazilians either voted null or voted blank or did
00:19:09not show up to vote, according to the Superior
00:19:13Electoral Court. Any words here about this partial? Look, it's interesting
00:19:17to see that we are already approaching two
00:19:20hours of counting with Flávio Bolsonaro always in the
00:19:23lead. This is a surprising scenario because we are already reaching
00:19:27half of the polls, right? 41%, 40,
00:19:30well, almost half, it still lacks a bit, but it
00:19:33is interesting to observe that it has been stabilized
00:19:37in this scenario for quite some time and we will still
00:19:41advance a lot in this counting and I imagine now it's almost
00:19:447 in the evening, let's imagine that between 8:30 and 9 the scenario
00:19:48will already be clearer, the hammer can be struck, hopefully the
00:19:51main votes that came for the presidential dispute so far
00:19:55came from those states where the counting is faster,
00:19:57Federal District, Tocantins, Rondônia, you
00:20:01still have a lot of votes behind from the Brazilian Northeast, which is
00:20:05not the political cradle, but
00:20:07Lula's great electoral support, no doubt,
00:20:11so we'll be back with you with these numbers, but you don't miss
00:20:15anything, because there's no commercial break here,
00:20:19we pass the ball already 2 hours live, we've been live for 2
00:20:23hours, we pass the ball to our multiplatform analysis central with
00:20:26Rafael Algarte and Bruno
00:20:29Soler, we'll be back in a
00:20:31little while.
00:20:38Hello, a great evening to you. I, Rafael Algarte, will now
00:20:42keep you company in our counting center, this joint
00:20:45system of the Record Group, R7, Record News. This
00:20:49counting is tight. We're seeing the numbers advancing more and more in
00:20:52different states, but analysis is needed to understand the movements that have
00:20:56been made so far, and of course I have Bruno Soler
00:21:00here with me, he's an analyst from the Realtime Big
00:21:04Data Institute. Bruno, a pleasure to have you here with me today. A pleasure, Rafael, always good to be with
00:21:07you. Bruno, we looked, we're here with the R7
00:21:11portal checking the numbers at this moment, looking at the presidential
00:21:14race, obviously there's a very
00:21:17significant importance for governors, but I want to start. In this race, looking
00:21:21at the figure of Flávio Bolsonaro and also President Lula.
00:21:24Cris Lemos and Edu Ribeiro just brought us the news, we're 2 hours into
00:21:28the count. Flávio has been leading since the beginning. We're at
00:21:3141% of these votes counted, so we need to
00:21:35calmly understand until we reach 100%. But
00:21:39it's a movement, especially as we were analyzing here at this
00:21:43moment what's happening in the states. Both in Minas, which appears there with
00:21:47less than 40% of the polls counted, but Flávio
00:21:50is ahead, this is a key state, and the movements
00:21:54can already be read here at a certain moment. Look, Rafael, from what
00:21:57we see from the numbers, it is very likely
00:22:01that Flávio Bolsonaro will finish in the lead. It seems to me that there is no
00:22:04chance for Lula to turn the tables on Flávio Bolsonaro, due to
00:22:08the dynamic we are seeing in the opening of votes. There is still
00:22:11a good portion of the votes from the Brazilian Northeast to
00:22:15be counted
00:22:17now. This could cause the distance
00:22:21to decrease a little
00:22:25round, right? The big point is, we are seeing that the sum
00:22:28of those small candidates there is very low, it's around seven
00:22:31points, more or less, the sum of everyone, right? Three points for Augusto
00:22:35Curi, two, 2.5 for Caiado, plus two for what we're seeing here
00:22:39behind us, it's almost three points for Augusto Curi,
00:22:432.38 for Ronaldo Caiado, there's still a little more
00:22:462% for Renan, eh,
00:22:50this sums up to about seven points in total. Flávio
00:22:54is opening a nine-point lead over Lula,
00:22:57what we are noticing with the opening of the polls in the
00:23:01Northeast, is Lula growing a little, right? Flávio reached
00:23:0450.80, now he's at
00:23:0750.20, Lula
00:23:09at 41.63, but the fact is that with this
00:23:11result, it's very difficult for President Lula
00:23:15to win even if he goes to the second
00:23:19round. Flávio comes out with an absolutely
00:23:22gigantic advantage. We were discussing earlier
00:23:26that if Lula finished four points ahead, three points
00:23:29ahead, it would already be good for Flávio Bolsonaro. With Flávio
00:23:33in the lead, it seems that the election is already almost
00:23:36being defined with Flávio as President of the Republic, and this is an important point, Bruno,
00:23:40for us to bring here in our analysis, because when we look at this
00:23:43first round, at the possibility then of a second, that candidate
00:23:47at least the two here, they need
00:23:51to understand where the other votes will come from. Next, we
00:23:55are seeing Augusto Curi with 2.96% and
00:23:58Ronaldo Caiado with 2.38%.
00:24:01And the profile that we analyzed throughout this electoral
00:24:04race, the PT's own campaign at
00:24:08various times tried to analyze, this week it was said that Lula's campaign
00:24:11was already trying to signal to Augusto Curi to see if
00:24:15it was possible to pull him at that moment in a possible second round.
00:24:19I wanted to understand, and also bring you into this analysis for us to verify
00:24:22if President Lula, looking at a second
00:24:25round, making an analysis based on the numbers we have here, if
00:24:29from there he can get enough votes to defeat
00:24:33Flávio Bolsonaro, because until then it seems like a task that will be almost Herculean.
00:24:36Look, Rafael, it seems impossible. Of
00:24:40course, in an election anything can happen, you can have changes,
00:24:43something can happen in the middle of the road and so on, but
00:24:47ah, the prediction, if we look at what the data has presented
00:24:51to us, there is a much stronger tendency for Flávio
00:24:54Bolsonaro, including to increase the distance, because the votes of
00:24:58Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos have a greater tendency
00:25:01to go to Flávio Bolsonaro. Augusto Curi's votes can
00:25:05even be divided, let's say, or even a little more for Lula,
00:25:08and Zema's didn't appear in the ballot box, right? Romeo
00:25:12Zema's vote is an absolute fiasco, right, Rafael?
00:25:16We expected Zema with 1%, 2%, but he is
00:25:18there, uh, with zero point
00:25:22something, right? So uh,
00:25:24this, that is, his vote will also matter little
00:25:28in this second round process. What we are seeing is
00:25:32ah, Flávio Bolsonaro opening a
00:25:35lead that seems irreversible, exactly.
00:25:38And we are now arriving, we started here at 41% of the precincts counted,
00:25:42it will reach 50 soon, we are talking about 47.26% of the
00:25:46precincts counted, a total of valid votes of 57,000
00:25:507 million 287 when we verify this
00:25:54race so far, and this is an important point. Back
00:25:57in August we had candidates, this third
00:26:01way that since Jair Bolsonaro's election,
00:26:04at some point there was talk of an attempt to somehow
00:26:08reduce this polarization, which we saw did not happen in 2026,
00:26:12polarization remains existing and still very latent, and there is a
00:26:15collapse of these other candidates. When we look at Zema, Caiado,
00:26:19Augusto Curi, in
00:26:22eight points, and now what we have here at this moment is
00:26:26two, Bruno, so it is very significant, it seems that
00:26:30a third way flopped. Exactly. We
00:26:33see the film of the election is very interesting, right,
00:26:36because at the beginning of the year when Flávio ran as a candidate and people
00:26:40started to know Flávio Bolsonaro and he presented himself as
00:26:43that Bolsonaro, he even used to say I am the balanced Bolsonaro,
00:26:47right, he brought that into the campaign, right, he did the whole campaign right at the beginning of the campaign
00:26:51he presented himself like that to the electorate and he gained
00:26:55popularity, he got very close to President Lula right at the beginning
00:26:58of the year at a time when the government's approval rating was also very...
00:27:02very bad, right, people were very critical of
00:27:06that beginning, that they had to pay a lot of taxes, the living
00:27:09conditions were bad for the population, at that moment
00:27:12Flávio got very close. Then there was the
00:27:15episode of the dark horse, when the
00:27:19Dark Horse episode happens, Flávio starts to
00:27:21lose his votability.
00:27:25These votes fall to these third-way candidates, the
00:27:28voter tested Ronaldo Caiado, at first it seemed like the guy...
00:27:32could grow, he's in a big party, Gilberto Cassab, a great
00:27:36strategist behind the campaign, a pro-Caiado
00:27:39movement emerges that doesn't and that doesn't take
00:27:43off, doesn't gain momentum. Then the voter starts to see Romeo Zema and
00:27:47Zema with that untouchables thing, it started to seem
00:27:50that he could also gain momentum, he didn't gain momentum. When he presented
00:27:54himself to the people, Zema was very very fragile, his positions,
00:27:58right, a governor of Minas who spoke of fiscal adjustment, then you look at the situation of...
00:28:02Minas was not good, so that starts to lose a little bit of
00:28:06the idea of going for him. Then that Renan Santos
00:28:10movement emerges, Renan reaches 8
00:28:139% in some polls of voting intention, but when Romeo,
00:28:17when Renan Santos goes to the general public, when he leaves
00:28:20the internet and goes to present himself to the Brazilian voter, then it's a
00:28:24disaster, because he goes to an interview
00:28:28very aggressive, talks about atomic bombs,
00:28:31talks about... blood in the favelas, this ends up scaring
00:28:35the electorate, until the voter settles into a psychical
00:28:38moment for the voter to go for Augusto Curi, right, the Augusto
00:28:42Curi movement, after that debate on Band, he starts to appear
00:28:46as a more neutral guy, against polarization and all
00:28:49that, but the voter also didn't feel confident in
00:28:53Augusto Curi, and we have a moment then, Rafael, which is the moment
00:28:57of the STF crisis, when the STF
00:29:00crisis hits, the Brazilian who was already... tired of this process, an
00:29:03extremely negative election, little discussion,
00:29:07then the person who is already dissatisfied with the government,
00:29:10sees all that was happening in the supreme court, what did
00:29:14we see happen? This voter starts to return to Flávio
00:29:18Bolsonaro, even without having great passion for Flávio Bolsonaro, but
00:29:21says: to defeat the status quo the change is
00:29:25Flávio Bolsonaro, then he returns to that initial level
00:29:29of the of the
00:29:33first measurements, I'll get to that topic, I just want to look at this
00:29:36here, because this is very good for us to be able to conclude this thread, because I want
00:29:40to bring up the government of São Paulo at this moment, which has
00:29:4347.46% of the precincts counted, right, a total of 12
00:29:47million votes, then we have Tarcísio from the Republicans, the current
00:29:50governor there being re-elected, already winning in the first round, which was
00:29:53debated a lot even before we got close to this Sunday. He has
00:29:5764.31% of the votes against Haddad's
00:30:0134. 80% from the PT. We
00:30:04have Vivian Mendes, who comes next with
00:30:070.33%, and Vera Lúcia from PSTU with
00:30:100.31% of the votes. I want to look at this
00:30:14point, before we return to the Supreme Court, Bruno, because
00:30:17here we cannot say it's a surprise, because when we look at
00:30:21Haddad, he already came to this dispute, he doesn't say this
00:30:24publicly, but we know that it was to create a strong platform for President
00:30:28Lula here in the state of São Paulo. The attempts, he participates
00:30:32in the debate, he was here at Record, participated in the questioning,
00:30:36was on the general balance, then also participated in another
00:30:39questioning with Gotino here from the group and we
00:30:43brought here how this movement was carried out by
00:30:46him so that especially the voter from
00:30:49the interior of the state, Fernando Haddad is a known figure,
00:30:53but to deliver and convince this voter is a different
00:30:57process, right, Bruno, then we have Tarcísio.