Google Cloud Speech-to-Text API (Chirp) + Gemini 2.5 Flash Non-Thinking. Treat it as a searchable index of what was broadcast, not a quotation record.
00:00:00attracting the attention of those who were in the
00:00:02publication, the video was shared by users who
00:00:06took the opportunity to highlight the affection
00:00:09that exists between Colombians and their
00:01:02fear, is it complicated by what
00:01:21needs of the
00:01:29Word.
00:01:46rule out asymmetric actions by the
00:02:02I mentioned,
00:02:53real purge of the
00:03:24we must maintain everything
00:03:41be thinking about a distribution of
00:04:36Hello, good evening, welcome to Conclusiones, I'm Iván Pérez Armenti for
00:04:40Fernando del Rincón. Today here in Conclusiones, the US Treasury Secretary,
00:04:43Scott Bessent, threatened this Monday to impose new
00:04:47sanctions on countries that refuse to break their economic ties
00:04:51with Iran. Social media has become a
00:04:55new gateway for armed
00:04:58latest information, we disseminate groups in Colombia. Human Rights Watch warns that almost half of the minors recruited in
00:05:022025 were recruited through platforms like TikTok and
00:05:05Facebook. Mexican President Claudia Shaman
00:05:09questioned the decision of the governor with license to.
00:05:14to return to local government on Friday and just one day later, after the
00:05:17criticism, the official again requested a leave of absence, which was
00:05:20granted this
00:05:21Sunday,
00:05:41that has severely hit its economy, the Donald Trump government now
00:05:45wants to go a step further, threatening countries that continue
00:05:49to do business with Iran, although the US Treasury Department did not
00:05:53impose new significant sanctions this Monday, as it had
00:05:56hinted, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent did threaten to
00:06:00impose penalties on countries that refuse to break their
00:06:03economic ties with
00:06:04Iran.
00:06:20But here's a problem for Washington: Iran has been learning
00:06:23to survive under sanctions for decades, according to US sources, the government of the
00:06:27Asian country has built a complex network of shell companies,
00:06:31intermediaries, exchange houses and a fleet of shadow tankers
00:06:35that allows it to move oil and money outside traditional financial channels.
00:06:39The US Treasury estimates that in 2024 alone, about
00:06:429 billion dollars in Iran-related banking activity passed
00:06:46through correspondent accounts in the United States. Iran part of
00:06:50the trade is done by avoiding the dollar, with Chinese yuan, bartering and other
00:06:53mechanisms that make Washington's control difficult. And there is also another
00:06:57issue. To be truly effective, this strategy, the United States would
00:07:01have to pressure the large buyers of Iranian oil, the
00:07:05independent refineries and the banks that process those
00:07:08revenues. Many of these actors are linked to
00:07:11China. The pressure on Iran could become
00:07:15another front of tension between Washington and Beijing, but
00:07:18Tehran is showing signs of yielding. The main
00:07:22Iranian negotiator and Speaker of Parliament, Mohammad Bager
00:07:25Galib, responded that the United States is not in a position to decide with
00:07:29whom Iran can trade and I quote, the Americans
00:07:32know that no one believes their
00:07:34bluster. Trump, for his part, raised the stakes on
00:07:38Truth Social and threatened with tremendous economic consequences, as he
00:07:42said. To countries that provide Iran with any kind of
00:07:45lifeline. What are these countries? Let's see. China is
00:07:49Iran's largest trading partner and main buyer of its
00:07:52oil. With Turkey there is more than 5 billion dollars in
00:07:56bilateral trade. In 2024 alone, 13% of its natural
00:07:59gas came from Iran. With Iraq there is a strong
00:08:03dependence on Iranian gas and electricity. With India
00:08:06there was more than 1.6 billion dollars of trade in
00:08:092025. While the United Arab
00:08:13Emirates suspended trade and financial transactions with Iran until further
00:08:17notice, they said. What path will the rest of the
00:08:20world follow? Will they heed the warnings of the United
00:08:23States? We are going to talk about all this with my first
00:08:25guest.
00:08:31I welcome Fernando Wilson, he is a doctor in history, specialist in international
00:08:34relations, academic at the Adolfo Ibáñez University in Viña
00:08:38del Mar, Chile. Thank you for being with
00:08:41us. I start by asking you about this decision by the United
00:08:44States, these sanctions that had been announced but ultimately do
00:08:48not seem to be as severe as expected.
00:08:51Does this move the needle in the conflict on the part of
00:08:54the United States, will it achieve any change or is it really just announcing
00:08:58something because something had to be announced? Well,
00:09:02these sanctions must be understood as the tip of an iceberg
00:09:05that is essentially based on the maritime
00:09:08blockade, the blockade as long as
00:09:11Iran is not able to export
00:09:14oil in large volumes, considering that it
00:09:18only has three operational gas pipelines
00:09:21and oil pipelines with countries that are not its primary customers,
00:09:25to supply China and East and Southeast Asia, it needs
00:09:29tankers, this situation or these
00:09:32financial sanctions
00:09:36clearly complicate not only the
00:09:39traffic or the free flow of ships sailing from
00:09:42Iranian ports, but also the financial
00:09:46management for example, future sales or
00:09:49any type of management that can be given
00:09:53to try to overcome or rather
00:09:56to obtain financing through advance
00:10:00payments in exchange for commitments
00:10:04to deliver oil once the problem has been overcome, in that
00:10:07situation one must see the Iranian circumstances basically about the
00:10:11signs of its internal eh the real, the
00:10:15Iranian currency has collapsed in value
00:10:17dramatically since February
00:10:2028, sorry, when these attacks began,
00:10:23but particularly in the last two weeks the
00:10:27collapse has been several hundred percent in
00:10:30comparison with the dollar, that is a clear demonstration that an
00:10:34already very battered economy with severe employment problems, with
00:10:38severe problems of business failures, today
00:10:41begins to receive a blow that is
00:10:44cumulative, certainly one would have
00:10:48expected more intense sanctions,
00:10:50but the level of cumulative damage that the Iranian
00:10:54economy is receiving contrasts greatly with the
00:10:58statements of some of the Iranian spokesmen who
00:11:01state that they contrast, pardon me, with the
00:11:05statements of the government of the secular administration
00:11:07inasmuch as that term can be used with respect to the
00:11:11Iranian government of President Pesechkian who has started to say
00:11:15that the best part of value is to overcome
00:11:18problems, to negotiate, to debate, in Iranian
00:11:21rhetoric that is a significant crack within the power
00:11:25systems, beyond Iranian rhetoric,
00:11:29Iran has been dealing with sanctions and a confrontation with the United
00:11:33States for quite some time now, what was
00:11:37announced complicates the situation that was already difficult
00:11:40much more and on the other hand, the United States announces
00:11:43this because it cannot announce more, because it doesn't have more strength to
00:11:47do something stronger because it will escalate it, how do you
00:11:50see it? I tend to think that
00:11:54finally, considering that
00:11:57the political-strategic leadership of this conflict started without a
00:12:01clear and achievable desired end state, it was never clear
00:12:05if the American and Israeli objectives were the beheading
00:12:08of the regime, a regime change, or on the contrary, only the
00:12:12dismantling of the nuclear program,
00:12:15but already for some months we began to
00:12:18notice a dynamic
00:12:21of contrasting balances between
00:12:25what appear to be more professional
00:12:29conductors in the management of this process, for example with the
00:12:32determination of the maritime blockade, which by far is the strongest blow that has been
00:12:36inflicted on the Iranian economy and subsequently with the
00:12:40addition of these financial measures that complement it, now as
00:12:43you yourself pointed out, I tend to think that this
00:12:47is a measure that seeks to either escalate
00:12:50or de-escalate precisely in the scheme
00:12:54of going. gradually processing
00:12:57that at this point no one doubts will be long,
00:13:01that is, the Iranian government will hardly give in
00:13:04to first, the first pressure, therefore,
00:13:07in a dynamic of cumulative pressures coupled
00:13:11with the deep export problems it has because
00:13:14of the maritime blockade, it will probably
00:13:18reach a point where they will sit down to
00:13:21negotiate and where both sides will claim victory, but... Finally,
00:13:25Iran will give in on what has finally become
00:13:28the conflict, which is the free passage through the Strait of
00:13:30Hormuz, speaking precisely of the Strait of Hormuz and
00:13:34taking your words a bit, taking into account the maritime blockade, but
00:13:38also that the United States does not have total control of the Strait
00:13:41of Hormuz, both say they control it, the truth is that neither
00:13:45of them fully controls it and
00:13:48that this continues to escalate, do we run the risk that
00:13:51the war with Iran will transform into the
00:13:54war. in Ukraine, that it will become eternal, that
00:13:58years will pass and it will not be resolved and that millions will continue
00:14:01to be spent, bombing will continue, tensions will continue and it will not
00:14:04be resolved? Well, one of the critical keys
00:14:08of a maritime blockade is that it does not have to be exactly at the
00:14:12point to block, that is, the maritime blockade can be
00:14:15distant, as has been practiced, the British were the
00:14:19great kings of that process during the 16th and
00:14:2217th centuries, in that situation the Americans. can
00:14:25impede traffic in the direction
00:14:28distances of hundreds if not thousands of miles from the coast or the
00:14:32Strait of Hormuz itself, therefore it is relatively
00:14:37the level of naval power enjoyed by the US
00:14:41Navy to apply a distant blockade without major
00:14:44problems, on the other hand, the
00:14:47claims of having escorted more than a thousand ships through
00:14:51the Strait of Hormuz at first glance seem
00:14:55exaggerated, but on the other hand there is no doubt that the US
00:14:58Navy has the capacity to escort merchant ships through
00:15:01the Strait of Hormuz and to contain any direct attack that the
00:15:05Islamic Revolutionary Guard, the navy or the
00:15:09Iranian army tries to make, missiles based on the islands of the
00:15:12Strait of Hormuz, in the two tumbs in Gam, Larak,
00:15:15etc., but on the other hand, this certainly
00:15:19leads us to a novel title from the
00:15:2360s, a forever war by Joe
00:15:27Haldeman in terms of that in strict terms
00:15:30the conflict with Iran began
00:15:34in 1979 for the United States with the capture of
00:15:38the embassy and has never ended, they have had,
00:15:41there was Operation Eagle Claw, the failed rescue attempt of the
00:15:45Iranians, of the hostages in Tehran, then
00:15:48Operation Praying Mantis, at the end of the
00:15:51Iran-Iraq war, where after a succession of Iranian attacks on
00:15:55American interests, the mining of the frigate Samuel B.
00:15:58Roberts, the attack on facilities and
00:16:01floating bases in the Persian
00:16:05Gulf. a series of installations were demolished, an
00:16:08Iranian corvette was sunk, etc., therefore this has been a
00:16:11tense situation in which what we have is a hybrid
00:16:15war in which there are phases in which there is
00:16:18a kinetic stage of direct
00:16:21military actions, but in which economic sanctions,
00:16:25aggressions through the media, special
00:16:28operations, you will remember the various interferences, the hacking
00:16:32of the centralized control system of tens of thousands of...
00:16:35nuclear centrifuges that ended up delaying the Iranian
00:16:39nuclear program for several years that was carried out by some
00:16:42American intelligence agency and with the
00:16:45support of Israel, that is, this is a multidimensional
00:16:49conflict that evolves
00:16:52adapting over time according
00:16:55to the strategic
00:16:58moment and the conjuncture, in that situation I personally
00:17:02tend to think that this will
00:17:06slowly decline. Due to the need, especially
00:17:09Iranian now, but unlike
00:17:13Ukraine, which is a conventional conflict of medium intensity, with
00:17:17regular operations of conventional armed forces, here
00:17:20there will be sparks, I would not
00:17:24Quds Force of the Revolutionary Guard, that is, the international
00:17:28action force that has carried out, well, without going any further, the
00:17:31AMIA bombing, etc., and
00:17:34I hope that this dynamic continues as
00:17:39of a forever war in which
00:17:43as long as the Islamic regime remains, it is very difficult
00:17:46for this to de-escalate, the great Satan is one of the great
00:17:49justifying factors of the theocratic regime in
00:21:32I continue my conversation with Dr. in History Fernando Wilson about
00:21:36these sanctions that the United States has announced, financial sanctions for Iran's
00:21:39trading partners. Fernando, I wanted to ask you, we were just at the beginning
00:21:43of the program reviewing the main trading partners, China at the top, and
00:21:47specifically regarding China I wanted to ask you. Does China
00:21:52the United States announces, does it add another element to the tension that already
00:21:56exists between the United States and China? I mean, what effect can
00:22:00it have on China that ends up being, let's say, the third
00:22:03guest at this table who is not always so present in the
00:22:05discussion? Well, China generally
00:22:09adopts very silent
00:22:12and discreet positions in conflicts that directly affect it, but it does
00:22:16not have concrete control. China is by far, as you yourself
00:22:20said, the main foreign client of Iran,
00:22:24so was India, especially for natural gas, that has been
00:22:27changing, courtesy of pressure from the United States
00:22:30and also the attitude of the government of Narendramodi, be that
00:22:34as it may, the concrete fact is that China had an
00:22:37undetermined figure, publicly,
00:22:40but it was speculated that it was between four and six months
00:22:44of oil and natural gas supplies based
00:22:47essentially on old tankers inverted in floating tanks
00:22:51and in land deposits, it has been able to
00:22:54manage this in some way by acquiring or
00:22:57increasing its volumes of oil and gas acquisitions
00:23:00from Russia, precisely by absorbing the
00:23:04quotas of fuels that Europe stopped
00:23:08acquiring and in that way it has managed to compensate somewhat
00:23:11and reduce the reduction
00:23:14of its strategic reserves, but this is a concrete
00:23:18problem, the fact that on
00:23:20at least three occasions Xi Jinping has been categorical about the
00:23:24need for an end to this conflict has drawn attention, that is very
00:23:26rare, very rarely does Xi Jinping make statements of that
00:23:30level of radicalism, which clearly shows an
00:23:33annoyance, but this comes at a bad time in
00:23:36China, let's remember that there have been internal power movements,
00:23:40last year there was a
00:23:43high command of the armed forces, several of the commanders
00:23:47in chief and various generals and admirals. of
00:23:50very high level were dismissed from their positions, therefore
00:23:54this catches Xi Jinping at a time when
00:23:58there are power platforms that are in motion within
00:24:01China and he has to navigate them with the best possible
00:24:04elegance, it certainly complicates this, this is
00:24:08another bad news in the face of the
00:24:11relative stagnation of Chinese economic
00:24:14growth and the severe internal problems that have been triggered
00:24:18by, let's say, the... demographic change and the
00:24:22collapse of the construction sector, therefore
00:24:25it's raining on them, and China cannot
00:24:28intervene as it did before the pandemic with the strength that an
00:24:32economy growing at 8% gave it, today
00:24:35it has to moderate a little more, it also has some
00:24:39problems in the Indian Ocean basin where Narendra
00:24:42Modi's India is being much more aggressive and therefore
00:24:46has to be more prudent, but it is undoubtedly hitting
00:24:50it, and beyond any discussion,
00:24:53you just mentioned India, we have very little time left and I don't want to fail
00:24:56to talk about Turkey, which is also another
00:25:00trading partner of Iran, but now it has also had rapprochement
00:25:04with the United States in the last NATO meeting, even Trump
00:25:07talked about selling planes and so on,
00:25:10I mean, how much does this decision complicate
00:25:14Turkey and what happens between the relationship of Turkey and the United States with this
00:25:17decision also with these sanctions?
00:25:20Well, Erdogan has shown formidable ability to
00:25:23use Turkey's central position between Europe,
00:25:27Russia, Central Asia and the Middle East. In that sense,
00:25:31although it is one of the main clients, but in proportions exponentially
00:25:35lower than China's, of Iran, it is also
00:25:39true that it is desperate to recover direct relations with the
00:25:42United States, and Donald Trump seems willing to do so.
00:25:46However, some of the key elements of that relationship, such as eventually
00:25:49reinstating. into the F35 program, clashes with the
00:25:52problem that the industrial quotas that Turkey
00:25:56was going to assume in the program for this fifth generation fighter have already
00:25:59been filled by other level 3
00:26:02suppliers within the Lightning 2 program, therefore
00:26:06it is very difficult for that to happen also that other
00:26:09partners of the program without going any further
00:26:12Greece, the different European states, Great
00:26:15Britain itself, etc., may manifest themselves in a
00:26:19less amicable way, most likely
00:26:22it will be released for Turkey
00:26:25access to the F-16 Block 70 as well
00:26:28as the upgrade to the Viper level of the F-16
00:26:31Block. and 70 already 50 sorry already existing in the
00:26:35Turkish Air Force, that is already a significant concession
00:26:38, they would be
00:26:41multi-billion dollar contracts in terms of the number
00:26:45of aircraft that would be both modernized and purchased, let's remember that Turkey
00:26:49has already acquired Eurofighter Typhoons, therefore
00:26:52it can manage these balances
00:26:56in some way, somehow Turkey is less trapped
00:26:59than India, first because it depends much. less and second because
00:27:03it has many more suppliers who are
00:27:07courting it, especially the Arab states of the Gulf, the
00:27:11conservative monarchies of the Persian
00:27:14Gulf who also have large stocks of oil to export and have not
00:27:18been able to extract through the Persian Gulf, but who do
00:27:22have gas pipelines and oil pipelines that lead to
00:27:25Egypt and Syria in some cases, those of Egypt
00:27:28are by far more practical and from there they feed tankers.
00:27:33or gas carriers with which to supply and Turkey is again
00:27:37a priority
00:29:20In that setting of objectives and
00:29:23relationships,
00:29:27that has been advanced. Let's not talk about other chapters such as equality between
00:29:31men and women. such as working conditions,
00:29:34such as the distribution of wealth, which is one of the problems that
00:29:38globalization has had. That is to say, well, you have to
00:29:43wealth that works and does not create tensions.
00:29:47Part of the tension and we don't have time for that
00:29:51from recent times is very, very
00:29:55much based on that tension produced by the
00:29:57global economy.
00:30:11I'm Andrés Oppenheimer in Miami, we are
00:30:13CNN.
00:30:16I'm Mexican-British, I've been doing
00:30:20journalism for 20 years in Mexico City, in
00:30:24the United States and now in Miami for CNN.
00:30:27CNN América is a multi-platform program where
00:30:31you will have information. Information from all areas that will
00:30:34allow you to understand the world from the angle you are
00:30:37seeing it. In these three hours you will not only have
00:30:41information from an economic and political perspective,
00:30:44but also health, from a women's perspective, but
00:30:48above all it is a space where we can have conversations not
00:30:52to polarize, but to integrate
00:30:55society.
00:30:57What excites me the most is to inform.