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00:00:14let's say, from the
00:00:22the results of the
00:00:39Thank you for staying with us. America Squarely magazine, citing
00:00:43United Nations figures, reported a few days ago that Latin America is,
00:00:46listen to this, the region of the world that is
00:00:49aging the fastest.
00:00:52Why? Because Latin American women
00:00:55critics of the use of school are having fewer and fewer children. According to the magazine,
00:00:58this will produce a historical
00:01:00in the last 10 or transformation that will have an enormous political
00:01:03and economic impact. The figures are impressive: the
00:01:07birth rate in Chile, for example, is already lower
00:01:10than in Japan, where the population has been declining
00:01:14for a long time. Across Latin America,
00:01:18the birth rate fell from six children per
00:01:21woman in 1950
00:01:23to an average of
00:01:261.8 children per
00:01:28state, especially in what woman today. Impressive, in several countries in
00:01:32the region there are already more deaths than
00:01:34births per year. We have with
00:01:38us Lawrence Blair, the journalist who wrote the article for
00:01:41American Squarely. Let's go directly to him.
00:01:46then she told us, in Lawrence, thank you for being with us. Well, tell us a little
00:01:50social isolation from bit about what's happening, that is, Latin American women don't want to have children or
00:01:54they want to, but they don't because they can't
00:01:56support them. Why are Latin American women
00:02:00having so many fewer
00:02:03children? Well, first of all, thank you for the
00:02:06invitation. I think it's a very complex phenomenon, no?
00:02:10There are several factors that are influencing these
00:02:13decisions to have children or not. Ah, I think
00:02:16the first would be the cultural
00:02:19element. Ah, we have seen in recent decades an
00:02:23expansion of university education to cure the
00:02:26segment of the population, countries like Brazil,
00:02:30Peru, Chile, women, more than anything,
00:02:33now, let's say, have more access to job
00:02:36opportunities, professional opportunities, there are
00:02:39other, let's say, goals in life, such as traveling,
00:02:42studying, developing in a rational way and being able
00:02:46to reach a certain level of
00:02:47eh, we must maintain all economic stability before thinking about having children, and obviously
00:02:51access to contraception, something that helps a lot in that
00:02:55ability to postpone that
00:02:57you at the beginning of the program, I want to step a little away from decision. I also believe that there is also an economic
00:03:00element. Ah, in
00:03:04be thinking about a distribution of all the conversations I had in Uruguay and also talking to people
00:03:06in the region, almost everyone mentioned that they feel a
00:03:10precarious economic situation, an instability, economic
00:03:13instability that is quite significant, no? The
00:03:17cost of housing, of rent, of
00:03:20food, of fuel, of care, all
00:03:24of that is making the idea of becoming
00:03:27a father, a mother, increasingly
00:03:31impossible for many people. So I think that this
00:03:34mix of economic and cultural factors
00:03:38is what is affecting the birth
00:03:41rate. What are the countries in Latin America where
00:03:45women are having fewer children? Well,
00:03:48we see a very clear trend that the countries that have reached
00:03:52a higher level of
00:03:56these moments, the accelerated fall in economic development tend to be the ones that have
00:03:58Chile almost
00:04:02one child per one child per woman, followed very closely by
00:04:05Costa Rica and Uruguay. There we also have
00:04:08Cuba, which is a very interesting case where
00:04:12hours, and that
00:04:13drop in adolescent the exodus to a certain extent of young people
00:04:17seeking asylum in other places, seeking better economic opportunities
00:04:20in the United States, has also
00:04:23the reasons that led caused the birth rate to fall quite
00:04:25a bit. After that, ah, to me,
00:04:29a big surprise. We also see Argentina there with
00:04:321.5 children
00:04:35per woman, followed by Brazil, Colombia, El
00:04:39Salvador. So one of the
00:04:42largest economies followed by Ecuador,
00:04:45Mexico, Peru are all below, let's say, what is
00:04:49called the replacement rate, no? The
00:04:53rate at which deaths are greater,
00:04:56right, than births. In your
00:05:00research for this article, did you find that
00:05:03politicians, governments, are concerned about this
00:05:07issue, or do they not even have it on their radar at the political
00:05:11and media level? I think it is still very
00:05:14incipient, and many of the political
00:05:17responses that are being offered tend to
00:05:21try to reverse this trend of falling birth rates,
00:05:24which is actually something almost impossible. It is an
00:05:28inevitable process that has occurred in a large part of the world.
00:05:31It can probably be done more slowly, more gradually,
00:05:35but reversing it will be very difficult. But policies so
00:05:39far are focusing on that, not for example, in
00:05:42Uruguay, a senator told me that he wants
00:05:46to cause an migratory shock to try to attract more people from
00:05:50Europe, from other countries so that they
00:05:52come and nothing in some way
00:05:56helps to stabilize the
00:05:58falling birth rate. In Chile, the new president, José
00:06:02Antonio Kast, he proposes giving $2
00:06:05to each for each child that is born,
00:06:08not a woman, but I believe such policies, as
00:06:12I told you, at most will gain a decade
00:06:16more than those rates will continue to
00:06:19fall. And I believe that public policies and
00:06:22social provision, preparations
00:06:25should better focus on how
00:06:28societies can enrich themselves with more dignity. Thank
00:06:31you very much for your time. We have a break. When we return,
00:06:35we will ask a demographer which Latin American countries will
00:06:39have to close more schools due to lack of students.
00:06:43And which countries will have more problems to be able
00:06:47to continue paying retirees. Don't
00:06:50go away, we'll
00:06:51be right back.
00:06:59In a global panorama, we travel the world in search of events that
00:07:03impact our environment. We bring you the most
00:07:07current information, we disseminate what is discussed on the web and social networks
00:07:11in an organized and verified way to understand what is happening and how it
00:07:15affects us. Come, join me in understanding the
00:07:18world at the speed at which events occur. You choose the
00:07:22platform. Global Panorama with Gabriela
00:07:25Frías, live from Mexico City.
00:07:29México,
00:07:32A story can change everything, a look at
00:07:35the reconstruction efforts of a city and the hope of a people
00:07:39determined to rise up. It evolved very quickly, CS. We thought
00:07:43it would become a category five, and to understand what
00:07:46is happening, let's go to my colleague Ione Molinares to
00:07:50Washington.
00:07:52The explosion, we can see the dimension it had to take away the entire
00:07:56facade. We hear the protagonists, they
00:07:59mocked us as mothers and fathers of the 43.
00:08:03Where she lived, a bomb fell. We are about to board this
00:08:07Mexican air force plane heading to Romania to
00:08:10get a complete picture. We are here as migrants to
00:08:14progress, to make this country grow. There are great stories to
00:08:17know and many perspectives to analyze. Perspectives
00:08:21with Mario González, Monday to Friday on CNN.
00:09:15But regardless of that, the truth is that everything that happens in the world is
00:09:19somehow stirring up, and that Latin America, with all
00:09:22the aspects that are there, as you said, of elections,
00:09:26of the treaty between Mexico
00:09:29and Canada and the United States, will be in the spotlight, and it comes from a
00:09:33moment when the markets, to continue a bit with our focus
00:09:36today on markets, when the markets
00:09:40have also been quite well, and that...
00:09:43there are some expectations that, to the extent, although they are difficult to
00:09:47anticipate certainly, but that are
00:09:49moving in a way they haven't in
00:09:53many years.
00:10:07I am Yona Molinares in Washington. This is
00:10:10CNN.
00:10:16Thank you for staying with us. We are analyzing United Nations figures that show that
00:10:20Latin America is the region of the world that is aging the
00:10:24fastest. Latin American women are having fewer
00:10:28and fewer children, and in some countries like Chile, it is
00:10:32projected that very soon more people will die than
00:10:35will be born. We have with us demographer Luis Rosero
00:10:39Bixby, founder of the Central American Population Center at the University
00:10:42of Costa Rica. Professor Rosero, thank you for being with
00:10:46us. Well, these data that we
00:10:49talked about earlier from the United Nations show that Latin American
00:10:53women are having fewer and fewer children, and the population of Latin America is
00:10:56aging faster than in any other part of the world. What do
00:11:00demographers like you say? Is this good or bad for
00:11:04the economy of our countries? Greetings from Costa
00:11:07Rica, yes, it has
00:11:10positive aspects, but it also represents great
00:11:13challenges, right? The aging of the
00:11:16population, which has accelerated
00:11:20because the birth rate fell
00:11:2515 years in a surprising way,
00:11:28right? So we have this phenomenon, eh,
00:11:32birth rate that was falling and it
00:11:35was expected that the population would age, right?
00:11:38Now this fall is accelerating, and that makes the
00:11:41aging that was expected become more
00:11:44accelerated and worrying, right?
00:11:47So there we have the challenges to the welfare
00:11:53has to do with... the pension
00:11:57schemes and public health that
00:12:01fundamentally serve elderly people, right?
00:12:04So what does that mean? There will be a crisis to be able to pay pensions
00:12:08and to be able to pay for hospitals,
00:12:10probably so, unless reforms are made, right?
00:12:14If things are left as they are,
00:12:16certainly there will be serious problems,
00:12:19right? Eh, it is said that there will be a collapse of pension
00:12:23schemes. Perhaps it won't get that far, but
00:12:27yes, to a substantial reduction in benefits,
00:12:30right? That the pensions that are received
00:12:33now will become half
00:12:36or a quarter of what they are now, for example,
00:12:40there will definitely be problems for the schemes, wow, they will
00:12:43fall by half or a quarter. Which Latin
00:12:46American countries are most at risk of this crisis
00:12:50in their retirement system and health services,
00:12:53putting Cuba aside?
00:12:55Eh, they are very advanced in this aging
00:12:58process and are moving very rapidly. Eh,
00:13:02Uruguay, Chile and Costa Rica, I would
00:13:05say. These three countries are very
00:13:09advanced, they have reached very low fertility rates
00:13:12of just one child per woman or close to one child per
00:13:16woman. In a matter of about
00:13:1920 or 30 years, they will have a quarter
00:13:23or a third. The population will be
00:13:26older adults. And where are Mexico, Argentina,
00:13:30Colombia and others, eh, a little further behind and Brazil,
00:13:34right? A little further behind than these three countries, I would say
00:13:37a decade behind. That is, it will happen
00:13:40first in Uruguay, Costa Rica, Chile, and then it will happen
00:13:44in Argentina, perhaps in Brazil, in Mexico.
00:13:47Yes, but professor, what do you say to the opposite argument
00:13:51that it's good for women to have fewer children, because
00:13:55a woman who has six children lives more economically constrained than a woman who
00:13:59has one child? What do you say to
00:14:01that argument? Eh, it doesn't contradict it entirely,
00:14:05right? We are talking about different
00:14:09times. These problems that will come
00:14:12will occur within two or three
00:14:15decades, right? At these moments, at
00:14:21the birth rate, eh, I believe, and I believe
00:14:24I can demonstrate it, is being
00:14:26beneficial, why? Because it is
00:14:30currently occurring eh,
00:14:33mainly among young women, due to a
00:14:38pregnancy. So this is
00:14:41allowing for the empowerment of these
00:14:44women, so that they can get a better education, have better
00:14:47life projects, etc. That's on one hand.
00:14:50On the other hand, this drop eh is
00:14:54reducing the quantitative
00:14:56pressure on educational systems. In
00:15:00Costa Rica, for example, we are going from a population
00:15:03of 1.5 million minors 10
00:15:07years ago to one that will be
00:15:10300,000 or 400,000
00:15:13children. Of course, there will be sad news that schools
00:15:17have to close, etc., but in general
00:15:20this process is a
00:15:23unique opportunity to improve the quality of
00:15:27education, so that the number of students per teacher, for
00:15:30example, is reduced by half, or so that
00:15:34the infrastructure of public schools is improved.
00:15:37Etc. What should be the retirement age in Latin
00:15:41America then? Well, that can vary among populations and
00:15:44occupations. But for example, if we take a
00:15:48benchmark, which is,
00:15:51moment that 10 or
00:15:5420% of the
00:15:56population eh, already suffers from
00:16:00disabilities, right? They can no longer fend for themselves.
00:16:04That is currently happening around the
00:16:08age of 75. That is, at these moments,
00:16:11being 75 years old was like being
00:16:1560 years old in the 50s or 40s of the last
00:16:19century when social security
00:16:21was established, right? Something like that is what
00:16:25has happened, health has improved, etc., and that
00:16:28is what we are seeing. So the retirement age should
00:16:32be 75 years old. I think that will be reached. I know that now it is
00:16:35difficult to say. I know that governments can fall,
00:16:39etc., but possibly,
00:16:42a retirement age of 75 years old with
00:16:45the possibility that people in certain occupations can
00:16:49retire earlier, that would be
00:16:51reasonable and would alleviate many
00:16:55of the problems. Professor Roserovi, thank
00:16:57you very much for your time. We have a break. When
00:17:00we return, my reflection of today. Don't go away, we'll
00:17:03be right back.
00:17:10I am Juan Carlos López, welcome to Clash of Opinions.
00:17:13Diplomacy, you know well, is said in private, not what is said in public. Well,
00:17:17we know what is said in private. Clash
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00:18:18In that setting of objectives and
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00:18:29men and women, such as working
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00:21:33primero,
00:21:37Today with Yole Molinares, the Capitol has already prepared the
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00:22:35important topics of the day.
00:23:44Thank you for staying with us. As I told
00:23:47the daily news and talk about
00:23:50a topic that will probably have a much greater impact in our countries in the medium and
00:23:53long term: the future of education.
00:23:56The laptop craze is over. Will we go back to classes
00:23:59with pen and paper? It's not an
00:24:02academic question. Sweden is already reducing
00:24:06digital education in all schools in the country, decreasing the
00:24:10use of school laptops and
00:24:12returning to use pen and paper more and
00:24:16more. It's a radical change because
00:24:20a few years ago many of us celebrated the adoption of school
00:24:23laptops. Sweden was one of the pioneering countries in all
00:24:26this. We saw school laptops as a passport
00:24:30for educational improvement and the democratization of
00:24:32education. I myself wrote a book where I talked
00:24:36a lot about this. All children could,
00:24:40we believed at that moment, ask their tablet questions during
00:24:43school hours and after class, and that would put them all
00:24:47at the same level. That is, it
00:24:51would put the children of the poorest families at the same
00:24:54level as the children of wealthy families, because it would be
00:24:57like having a personal tutor after school
00:25:02theory was going to result in more educated new generations and
00:25:06richer countries. And
00:25:09now, after hearing
00:25:13Sweden to reduce the use of educational
00:25:15tablets, I am not against
00:25:18school tablets, nor do most experts say they should be completely
00:25:22banned, but there are growing
00:25:25doubts about how effective they are.
00:25:28Sweden is one of the most technologically advanced countries
00:25:31in Europe and one of the pioneers in the use of school
00:25:35laptops, as I just told you, and the Swedish government, according
00:25:38to a BBC London report, is
00:25:41now returning to classes with pen and paper
00:25:44because academic results in recent years
00:25:48were disappointing.
00:25:51That is, they are not eliminating laptops, but they are
00:25:55reducing them. What should we do in our
00:25:58countries? Should we follow the example of Sweden or
00:26:00bet on education with screens? The
00:26:04truth is that since laptops began to be used in
00:26:08classes in the early 2010s, school
00:26:11levels have fallen in many countries,
00:26:15obviously, including Sweden. According to the
00:26:18OECD, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development,
00:26:21the Club of Rich Countries,
00:26:25PISA tests, as they are called, are tests for
00:26:2815-year-old students that are taken in more than 80 countries.
00:26:32They had been falling even before the
00:26:35pandemic, but they suffered an unprecedented
00:26:38drop between 2018 and
00:26:412022. Of course, part of that was the
00:26:44pandemic, because many children could not go to class
00:26:48for months and obviously lost schooling.
00:26:52But the problem, as I just said, came from before, and
00:26:57tablets as a pillar of teaching say
00:27:01that laptops had a lot to do with the
00:27:03drop in school performance, because many
00:27:07students who had them in class were distracted,
00:27:11used them to chat on social networks, both in class
00:27:14and at home. So what is the solution?
00:27:17Probably, as the Harvard University professor,
00:27:21Emiliana Vegas, told us in today's interview, young
00:27:24children learn more with paper books than with digital
00:27:28tablets. Reading and writing are
00:27:30actions that require
00:27:34an attitude, that is, an
00:27:37action, and many times that allows
00:27:40them to remember things better than passively
00:27:44looking at a screen. And
00:27:49high school,
00:27:51the ideal is for tablets to be used partially
00:27:55and for specific uses.
00:27:58She gave us the example that when schools, for example, don't have English
00:28:02teachers, well, tablets can fulfill
00:28:05that function. So, as she told
00:28:08us, perhaps it's not a bad idea to do what
00:28:12Sweden is doing, not to eliminate school
00:28:15tablets, but to use
00:28:17them selectively and with limited times, both in
00:28:20schools and in homes. I wouldn't be
00:28:23surprised if many more countries follow in Sweden's
00:28:26footsteps, and return to encouraging the use of pen and
00:28:30paper, as before. Well,
00:28:33we've run out of time for today. If you you missed a part of this program and want
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00:30:37Hello, how are you, I'm José Antonio Montenegro this is Globo
00:30:40Economía today dedicating our time to
00:30:44electrification and specifically to how despite the
00:30:47very strong onslaught that is.