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00:00:22We are CNN, the world
00:00:25leader in news.
00:00:33must maintain all Every election in Brazil, the
00:00:36world watches with attention, the fifth largest country on
00:00:39the planet, tenth world economy, more than a
00:00:43country, a continent within a continent, but
00:00:47force of this election is especially relevant, two surnames face
00:00:50each other again, although now it is the son and not the
00:00:53father, who represents the
00:00:55tensions, that part of Bolsonaro, Flavio versus
00:00:58Lula, a country. Brazil divided in two and
00:01:02where many vote more against a candidate than
00:01:05in favor of the one they decided to support. The geopolitical
00:01:08moment is key, President Trump not only supports Flavio
00:01:12Bolsonaro, but also imposed tariffs of
00:01:1550% on Brazil for what he calls political
00:01:19persecution after the conviction of former president Jair Bolsonaro
00:01:23for attempted coup against Da Silva. Will Brazil
00:01:28they are completely be a counterweight or an ally of the United States in the coming years? It is a close election
00:01:32according to the polls and therefore
00:01:35much a reflection of unpredictable, where two diametrically opposed
00:01:38each other: religion,
00:01:41democracy, security, economy, all issues that
00:01:44with barely
00:01:473% of undecided and the more than
00:01:51open possibility of a second round. Sunday, October
00:01:544 or 25 of that same
00:01:57month, dates that will mark the... history of
00:02:00Brazil, how will the results of these elections
00:02:04the world, what are the urgencies of the South American
00:02:06giant, what is at stake for the democracy of that
00:02:10country, topic of global connection for CNN
00:02:13en Español.
00:02:16We begin the analysis and for that we are joined by Sabrina Almeida who is
00:02:19a researcher at the Instituto Democracia Inject, thank
00:02:23you very much for being with
00:02:25on people's confidence in us. Hello, Monica, hello everyone, thank
00:02:28you very much for the invitation. The first question, in general
00:02:32terms, what is at stake for Brazil in
00:02:35this election in which 158 million
00:02:38Brazilians have to
00:02:43fears are there regarding each one decide. Well, it's an
00:02:46election, as everyone knows, very
00:02:50important, very
00:02:53close, marked by many
00:02:56events, many...
00:03:00external to the campaigns,
00:03:049:30 in the morning from the Angel of for example,
00:03:07the crisis in the Supreme Federal Court
00:03:10here in
00:03:13I mentioned them. Brazil, geopolitical crises of external
00:03:16interferences, now in this stage of the
00:03:20campaign, a lot of misinformation,
00:03:23desinformativa,
00:03:25I think that because it is an election
00:03:29that is very close to the first
00:03:32round, it is very open,
00:03:36so every vote counts, it is important,
00:03:39population Sabrina, to ask, yes, yes,
00:03:43I hear you perfectly, to ask
00:03:46you, for you it is quite evident that there will be a second
00:03:50round, we are talking about the presidential elections, because there is also
00:03:53a renewal of important seats in the
00:03:57Senate and the entire Parliament, besides the
00:04:00regional ones, so the question is, for you it is evident that with 3% of
00:04:04undecided and the polls we have
00:04:07election in seen, there will be a second round, yes,
00:04:10yes, yes, very probably the
00:04:13electoral polls already
00:04:17show that there is a technical
00:04:20tie between the main
00:04:25should play, especially in candidates, so yes, the second round
00:04:28should happen. And I think
00:04:32that also in this
00:04:35stage the votes will be very
00:04:38tight, they will not
00:04:41be automatically transferred to the
00:04:44candidates who will support one or another
00:04:48candidate. I think
00:04:51that the support of the
00:04:54parties and the candidates will
00:04:57not influence the decision of the
00:05:01voters in a very decisive way. I think
00:05:04it will be something very
00:05:06disputed in the stage between one
00:05:10the world what is happening, I am at round and the second round. We know Luis Ignacio Lula Silva,
00:05:14if he achieves it, it would be his fourth term, he has many
00:05:17elections under his belt, a union leader, we already know about his
00:05:20career, but tell us a little more about who
00:05:24Flavio Bolsonaro is, for all those who listen to
00:05:28CNN en Español, besides knowing that he is the son of former president Jair
00:05:32Bolsonaro, who
00:05:35is he, what kind of
00:05:37leader?
00:05:41Well, the
00:05:51movement we call Bolsonarism
00:05:55is something that emerges with a
00:05:59opposition, the most important
00:06:02to the
00:06:04government since
00:06:072018 at
00:06:08least.
00:06:11He is a figure who was a parliamentarian for
00:06:15almost his entire political
00:06:18career, he is
00:06:22truly very allied to the
00:06:25center of political parties,
00:06:28more recently the
00:06:31right, and his
00:06:34project is very supported by the more
00:06:37liberal logic,
00:06:40cutting
00:06:42taxes and tariffs, very
00:06:48the government of
00:06:51Argentina by Javier Milei, a very
00:06:54explicit political ally and mobilized
00:06:57in his campaign, and it is true that, according to
00:07:01analysts, he would be the least
00:07:04ideological within the family and among the children,
00:07:07he is 45 years old, he was a councilman for 16
00:07:11years, then a senator. of Brazil. Is
00:07:15he more moderate than his father or
00:07:17not?
00:07:20I think that is an image that the campaign
00:07:23is already trying to
00:07:25sell,
00:07:28but in reality he is very much allied
00:07:32to the ideas that
00:07:35Bolsonarism brings. I think that for the
00:07:39campaign it is very useful to use
00:07:43this more moderate position
00:07:45to try to get the votes
00:07:49of more moderate
00:07:53candidates, but I think
00:07:56that it is not a moderate
00:08:00political proposal.
00:08:04I was only saying it in comparison with his father, as you told us, tax cuts, chemical
00:08:08castration, construction of mega-prisons like
00:08:11Bukele's, reduction of taxes and also
00:08:14reduction of the state, now a
00:08:16question
00:08:19things that are also in his plan to return these proposals
00:08:22exactly, exactly, that's why
00:08:25Does it weigh on
00:08:28Flavio Bolsonaro to be the son of
00:08:32Jair Bolsonaro? Does it help
00:08:34or harm him?
00:08:39I think it weighs a lot, I think it is
00:08:42the main banner of his
00:08:45campaign, I think it is the
00:08:48main reason for the voters
00:08:51who will vote in his
00:08:55campaign. The image of his
00:08:58father was also very mobilized in his
00:09:01campaign
00:09:03and
00:09:05I don't know if for other voters who are not
00:09:09exactly affiliated
00:09:14with the idea of Bolsonarism, if it is
00:09:17a prejudice, but I think
00:09:21that to make the opposition to the
00:09:25PT, to capture this
00:09:28part of anti-PTism,
00:09:31important
00:09:33and very effective that they use the
00:09:37image of his father. I understand and I want to close by asking you,
00:09:40how is Luis Ignacio
00:09:43Lula da Silva's last
00:09:47government evaluated today in
00:09:50Brazil? What are the
00:09:54lights and shadows, what are the strengths and
00:09:57weaknesses of Lula beyond his age? He is
00:10:0180, Bolsonaro 45, and that has always been
00:10:05put in any campaign within the pros and cons,
00:10:08but how is Luis Ignacio Lula da Silva's government evaluated?
00:10:15It's a very important
00:10:18question, at this moment in the electoral polls the
00:10:22rejection in fact of
00:10:26Lula and Flavio is very high, it is around
00:10:2950% for
00:10:32both, but I think it is much
00:10:35more a reflection of the society as a
00:10:38whole that adopts very different
00:10:42projects and very different
00:10:45political visions,
00:10:48but Lula
00:10:50bet on this
00:10:53campaign, he brings
00:10:56the legacy of the achievements of his government
00:11:00in all these
00:11:04years of PT government. Lula
00:11:06also bet on the idea
00:11:10that we cannot go back, we
00:11:13cannot lose
00:11:17our acquired rights.
00:11:19I understand,
00:11:22so Flavio puts himself as this
00:11:25option of change,
00:11:28but it's easier to say
00:11:31I'm different, I'm
00:11:35the change, but it's a very
00:11:38different project, when you analyze
00:11:41all the proposals in the
00:11:44socioeconomic aspect of social
00:11:48security, so
00:11:53antagonistic
00:11:56projects, Sabrina
00:11:59Almeida, researcher at the Democracy
00:12:03Insec Institute, thank you very much for
00:12:06joining us from Brazil, analyzing these
00:12:10weekend elections, thank
00:12:13you, Monica, it was a pleasure, hug, we will take
00:12:17a break and return with more analysis, what does this election in
00:12:21Brazil mean at a global level for our continent?
00:12:24When we return,
00:12:25I am Juan Carlos Lopez, welcome to
00:12:35clash of opinions, diplomacy, you know well that what is said
00:12:38in private is not what is said in public, well, here we know what is said in
00:12:42private, clash of opinions, Sunday
00:12:45on CNN,
00:12:47the need to migrate knows no
00:12:50age, many claim they want to reach
00:12:54Mexico City, but others seek to go further
00:12:57north.
00:12:58The Mexican army's anti-drone
00:13:02battalion consists of these types of
00:13:05elements of inhibitors to bring down drones
00:13:09that have become a threat. The
00:13:12Chiapas authorities have detected a cattle smuggling
00:13:15point. This is one of the illegal
00:13:19crossing points for cattle that goes from Central America to
00:13:22Mexico. Thousands of demonstrators. Workers from this
00:13:25country left at
00:13:29Independence. I am in the municipality of Teuchitlan in the
00:13:33Mexican state of Jalisco. Here the discovery was
00:13:36macabre by groups of people searching
00:13:39for the disappeared. What made you come here with the
00:13:43suspicion that your son could be on this
00:13:45ranch?
00:13:49The complete story with Anderson Cooper, CNN's best
00:13:52journalists share professional stories.
00:14:32A CNN podcast.
00:14:44Every night there is the possibility of a
00:14:47bombardment without filters, they should
00:14:50not treat our young people like this anywhere,
00:14:54here it is asked. Is there freedom of belief in the country in
00:14:56Spain, this type of phenomenon is not
00:15:00that they are the generators of change, they are the expression of a change
00:15:04and it is debated, their foreign policy will be
00:15:06like this, lukewarm, without taking a stance. Conclusions with
00:15:10Fernando del Rincón, Monday to Friday on
00:15:13CNN. The news does not stop and
00:15:16CNN is always present to bring you the most relevant
00:15:20information, now on weekends follow Rey
00:15:23Rodríguez. leading the World Watch team, your reference
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00:15:31country and in the world, stay with CNN for
00:15:35accurate and timely information. The
00:15:38stories of the moment, World
00:15:41Watch, Saturdays and Sundays on CNN.
00:15:54We continue talking about this election, which is also parliamentary, not just
00:15:58presidential, so close in Brazil, and for that, as you can see
00:16:02on the screen, we contacted Sergio Fausto, political scientist and also
00:16:06executive director of the Fernando Henrique Cardozo Institute, it's a pleasure
00:16:09to talk to you again,
00:16:12likewise, Monica, let's see, I would like to ask you what does it mean
00:16:16in the current geopolitical
00:16:18context with the United States governed by President
00:16:22Donald Trump, and in the context of this initiative called
00:16:25"Shield for the Americas", what does the Brazilian
00:16:29election mean? Well, it means
00:16:32a lot, two scenarios, right? The two
00:16:36candidates who go to the second round, one is Lula,
00:16:39re-election, the other is Bolsonaro's son,
00:16:43Flavio Bolsonaro. Flavio Bolsonaro
00:16:46manifestly aligns with Donald
00:16:49Trump, that is, from the White House's point of view,
00:16:53having Flavio here is having an ally
00:16:57in the largest country in the region
00:17:01and very probably Brazil under the
00:17:05leadership perhaps of
00:17:07Bolsonaro would enter this
00:17:11regional scheme under the
00:17:13leadership of the United States, Shield of the Americas, and the
00:17:17only counterweight would basically be ideological
00:17:20and geopolitical strategy in Mexico, relevant I
00:17:24mean, yes, in this scenario, yes, Mexico would be
00:17:27the last trench, so to speak, well, along with
00:17:31Uruguay, obviously, but I am equating.
00:17:35Exactly, that Uruguay is
00:17:38a spectacular country, but
00:17:40it is a very small country, it does
00:17:44not have the relevance of Mexico and Brazil in the
00:17:47region, this does not mean that even if
00:17:51Flavio wins, Brazil will be
00:17:55100% subservient to the United
00:17:57States, there is a long tradition of seeking
00:18:00autonomy in Brazil's foreign policy, yes,
00:18:04yes, this would somehow be maintained.
00:18:08For example, Brazil has relations with China that
00:18:12cannot be damaged and I believe
00:18:14that Flavio is clear about this, yes, and I
00:18:18tell you one thing, I was also studying his government program and I saw
00:18:22that one of the points was to preserve
00:18:25critical minerals for Brazil, and that is something that obviously at some point could
00:18:28come into conflict with the
00:18:31wishes or expectations of the United States, but I want
00:18:34to take you to another topic, I would like you to explain
00:18:38to those who are watching us the role that
00:18:42religion and evangelical churches play in Brazil
00:18:45in this election as in other previous ones.
00:18:48Well, this is a pattern that was established since the
00:18:522018 elections, when Flavio's
00:18:55father won, the right
00:18:59has about 70% of
00:19:02the evangelical vote in Brazil, which is
00:19:05a social group that has grown throughout
00:19:09the last decades, today
00:19:12it represents around 30% of the
00:19:17and continues to grow, it is in
00:19:19terms of its
00:19:22religiosity, a more intense
00:19:26religious group than Catholics who are still
00:19:29the majority, but and
00:19:32that is, I would say, the main
00:19:35pillar of the pure and hard right in Brazil
00:19:39and also with a
00:19:42population that used to vote for the PT,
00:19:46with scarce resources and who today also vote for a
00:19:49religion that accompanies them, that takes men out of alcoholism, that somehow is where the state
00:19:53is not, many times, exactly, exactly, it
00:19:57plays the role that the state
00:20:02the poorest areas of the peripheries of large
00:20:05metropolises, that
00:20:08is, it plays a very important social
00:20:11role, there is quite a lot of heterogeneity,
00:20:14it is very curious, it is not that
00:20:18it is a totally homogeneous group, but for
00:20:21some reason since
00:20:232018 in presidential
00:20:27elections they tend to vote more homogeneously
00:20:30than before, and that is why the Bolsonaros also place so much emphasis on
00:20:34issues like family, like being against sexual diversity and other issues. Now I
00:20:37ask you, yes, exactly, yes, I wanted to ask
00:20:41you what role the judiciary in Brazil is
00:20:45playing in Brazilian democracy and how it weighs in this election, if you
00:20:48can briefly explain the challenges that
00:20:52the Brazilian judiciary faces and the struggle in the Supreme
00:20:56Court of Brazil, and I tell you this because in a previous election, the
00:20:59first one I had to discuss with you in 2018 and cover
00:21:02on the ground in 2018, it was clear that
00:21:06Lula was in prison, Haddad represented the PT,
00:21:09and Bolsonaro won, and today Jair Bolsonaro is in prison
00:21:13and his son takes over and faces Lula.
00:21:16How are the challenges, do they have weight or not?
00:21:20The challenges are now
00:21:23brutal because we have a generalized
00:21:25crisis of distrust that reached the Supreme
00:21:29Court, in relation
00:21:33to the parties, distrust had been there for a long time, but
00:21:36now it reached the Supreme Court which plays a very
00:21:40important role in the
00:21:42constitutional engineering of Brazil, it is a very
00:21:46active Supreme Court that played a prominent role.
00:21:50Throughout the years, it was dragged into
00:21:54politics, it played an important role in
00:21:56containing Bolsonaro's authoritarian
00:22:00attempts, but it went
00:22:02too far, so to speak, and they are perceived
00:22:06today as a Supreme
00:22:09Court, with the exception of two or three
00:22:12very politicized judges and some of
00:22:15them with very strong indications of being involved
00:22:19in corruption, so you can
00:22:21imagine an institution that gained
00:22:25enormous prominence throughout the last
00:22:28years, judging
00:22:31corrupt politicians, judging very
00:22:34sensitive issues, sexuality, marriage between
00:22:38people of the same sex, and
00:22:41also very delicate political issues such as the conviction
00:22:45of Bolsonaro for the coup attempts, and
00:22:49now this institution is
00:22:52under brutal suspicion from all
00:22:55Brazilian society, that is, it is a major crisis
00:22:59and with repercussions on confidence in
00:23:03democracy, we could talk about the short-term
00:23:06effects on the elections, but I am more
00:23:09concerned about the medium and long-term effects
00:23:15democracy. To conclude, I would like to ask you what
00:23:19are the fears in
00:23:22Brazil, in a very polarized country, divided in two,
00:23:25one could say, today, if Lula wins or
00:23:29if Bolsonaro wins, what
00:23:33after what we also saw in Plan Alto and in Brasilia when
00:23:36Luis Ignacio Lula da Silva assumed
00:23:40the presidency again in his third term? For each
00:23:43of them, what fears do their opponents have?
00:23:47Fears, fears, fears. In relation
00:23:51to Lula, there is no
00:23:55fear that he will not be willing
00:23:58to face the country's fiscal
00:24:01problems and that if re-elected the
00:24:04country would slide towards an
00:24:07economic crisis, this is the main threat that
00:24:11people on Bolsonaro's
00:24:13side see. From
00:24:17Lula's side, pardon,
00:24:20from Lula's side, looking at the
00:24:23right-wing camp,
00:24:26the great fear is a
00:24:29repetition of the authoritarian attempts of Flavio's
00:24:32father's government, if
00:24:36Flavio is elected President of the Republic and
00:24:39after Lula, to conclude, that for not only
00:24:43the Latin American left but specifically also for the
00:24:46Workers' Party with a leadership that has marked decades.
00:24:51Yes, that is a great question, Monica, it is the tenth
00:24:57which Lula participates, seven times as a
00:25:00candidate, three times as the protagonist,
00:25:03even if he was not a candidate, I think
00:25:07it is an absolute record, and one of the problems
00:25:11is that he did not prepare his succession, he did not prepare
00:25:15his succession within his party, he did not prepare
00:25:18a broad front that could
00:25:22generate a successor in the center-left camp,
00:25:24so it is a major challenge,
00:25:28Sergio, thank you very much for joining us on
00:25:32Global Connection for all CNN
00:25:40Global Connection for CNN
00:25:42en Español.
00:25:51They're taking him out, but we have to inform the world about a coup, CNN,
00:25:55sir, please, we are international press, we have to inform
00:26:00the door of Congress, unfortunately not.
00:26:32relationships, we
00:26:36the progress that has been made, let's not talk about other chapters such as equality between
00:26:40men and women, such as
00:26:42working conditions, such as the distribution of wealth, which is
00:26:46one of the problems that globalization has had, that is,
00:26:50well, you have to be thinking about a distribution of
00:26:52wealth that works and does not create
00:26:58the tension and we no longer have time for that, of the
00:27:01last. Times is very, very
00:27:05based on that tension produced by the global economy.
00:29:50The most populated country in Latin America, above
00:29:53Mexico, the largest regional economic power with
00:29:562.3 trillion dollars of nominal
00:29:59GDP, interesting, key. Our
00:30:03countries are what happens in Brazil, and we follow it closely in a new
00:30:06global connection for CNN en Español.
00:30:21We are CNN, the world leader in
00:30:23news.
00:30:46President Trump in Denton, Texas was there on Thursday as part of an
00:30:50offensive a month before the midterm elections in which Trump
00:30:54says the problem is not the country's
00:30:57situation, not the economy or the price of...