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00:00:00nominal, interesting, key for our countries what
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00:00:46President Trump in Denton, Texas, he was there on Thursday as part of an
00:00:50offensive a month before the midterm elections, in which Trump
00:00:53says the problem is not the country's
00:00:57situation, not the economy or the price of fuel, but he says that
00:01:01Republicans have not been able to sell how well things are going,
00:01:04President Trump's policies and the
00:01:08country's success. On Friday, the unemployment figure
00:01:11came out, it dropped slightly to 4.2%, only
00:01:1526,000 jobs were created, which pleased the markets
00:01:18because it's a sign that they might postpone the interest rate hike
00:01:22in October, but that's the scenario under which we begin
00:01:26this edition of "Clash of Opinions," a message of optimism from Trump,
00:01:30which reminds me of Hans Christian Andersen's
00:01:34"The Emperor's New Clothes," but we'll talk about that later. I'm going to
00:01:38introduce our guests. Here in Washington
00:01:41are Rocío Obéz, she is a Republican strategist
00:01:44lawyer. We are also joined by Tatiana Dangón,
00:01:48political analyst and lawyer from Miami,
00:01:51César Grajales, strategist and analyst, and from San José
00:01:55in Costa Rica, Juan Carlos Hidalgo. Thank you to all four of you for
00:01:58joining us. Rocío, I'll start with you. President Trump has
00:02:01said, everything is very good, what has
00:02:04failed is selling the
00:02:06country left at 9:30 AM from the Angel de la message. That's the scenario, and that's why the
00:02:09polls give the Democrats a considerable advantage
00:02:14you read, don't believe what you hear, believe what for a month from now. Have the Republicans made a mistake by not selling the success of the Trump
00:02:18administration? Uh, there are several
00:02:21factors, and first, although we always want to talk about a Donald Trump
00:02:24and him being the messenger, the
00:02:28elections, which are quite local and
00:02:31regional, each
00:02:34of those candidates has to
00:02:38had to do it months ago, but in these
00:02:40but what next 30 days it has to be a message that despite
00:02:45understanding the reality of inflation having risen and the high
00:02:48the topic of the gasoline costs being a factor, that message
00:02:51can be in Minnesota as
00:02:54he knows more than it can be in Maine, it's a very different factor, and for President
00:02:58Trump to be only the lead singer and wanting to do it for the next
00:03:0230 days, it can be something positive because he
00:03:06gets people to vote, and that's a factor, right? The Maga
00:03:09people, the more independents, not necessarily, right?
00:03:12Because the movement and that independent vote
00:03:18to generate a discourse of right now is very difficult for both the Democratic and Republican parties, they are in
00:03:21complete dissatisfaction. So what I
00:03:25think is that we are going to have a moment
00:03:29where the White House, no matter how much it wants to sell,
00:03:32the war in Iran has been a problem, and
00:03:35if they achieve something in the next two or three weeks that is a miracle,
00:03:39yes, they could recover, but
00:03:42I don't think that the president launching
00:03:45himself, right, and trying to do all this as if nothing has happened,
00:03:48being in complete denial, will help
00:03:52him either. It didn't help Joe Biden, it doesn't usually help
00:03:55presidents when they say nothing has happened, all of this is in transition, they have to go
00:03:59with a clear message of what the
00:04:03solutions are and what positive things will be happening for either of the
00:04:06two parties, that's exactly what will happen. César,
00:04:10the president insists, he says: things are good,
00:04:13the press doesn't report them, the candidates don't know how to
00:04:17sell them. Uh, the reality is that the polls are a
00:04:20reflection of the moment, but right now the accumulated advantage is 12
00:04:24points for the Democrats in these elections, which generally
00:04:27favor the opposition party. There's the
00:04:31high price of fuel and a series of controversies.
00:04:34This is a strategy that Republicans should follow. Is the president right
00:04:38that the mistake is not selling the
00:04:40message about the success that the United States is experiencing?
00:04:43Let's see, um, I think that the president, in this
00:04:46comment, yes, I completely disagree with him,
00:04:49I don't think it's a matter of the country being
00:04:53excellent. I think the country has made very valuable changes, I think the country
00:04:56was coming from a streak of 4 years that, in my opinion, was not
00:05:00positive for the country in terms of, at least, security, in terms of
00:05:04immigration, and in economic terms, obviously the
00:05:07president made some promises and some changes
00:05:10uh for what was going to improve the American's pocket
00:05:14and, for example, in terms of the tax reform, and I have mentioned
00:05:18it several times, I think that is something very important that the daily voter
00:05:22forgets the relevance that this reform has to
00:05:25be able to save more money in their pocket, a
00:05:29reform that was uh
00:05:32not only extended but already permanent in last year's
00:05:35legislation, but I also think that the issue of saying that
00:05:39everything is fine and not recognizing that there are groups, and I think...
00:05:43yes, he mentioned it very well, politics is local.
00:05:46People, for example, here in Miami, in certain areas
00:05:50of Miami, who go and fill up their gas tank
00:05:53with $20 extra
00:05:56truly feel it.
00:05:59They feel that message in an insensitive way, and they
00:06:02forget that last year's tax reform, for example, was
00:06:06a positive thing. So I think there are positive things, I think
00:06:09that in the cost of living, uh, it has not
00:06:13gone well, I suppose if I had to grade it, I would give
00:06:17it a B, I wouldn't give it an A, nor would I give it a
00:06:20D, but I think he has to be more of a leader
00:06:24to explain what the plan is, how much longer Americans
00:06:27will feel the pain in their pockets, at least in
00:06:31terms of gasoline, but not simply say that everything is
00:06:34fine because many districts,
00:06:38and in this electoral cycle, many districts are feeling that economic
00:06:42part, and denial does not help. Now, I want to conclude with the
00:06:45following: on average, on average, comparing most
00:06:49US presidencies, the incumbent president loses around
00:06:5226 seats during that midterm
00:06:55period. However, some projections with Trump's
00:06:59popularity, which is around 38%,
00:07:02some projections say plus or minus
00:07:0619 seats in Congress, in the House of Representatives. If that
00:07:10happens, Juan Carlos, it seems that the president is not as
00:07:13bad as many seem to be showing, and
00:07:17the greatest example, for example, in 2010, President Obama had just
00:07:21passed Obamacare, which was a popular reform for many,
00:07:24and yet he lost around 63
00:07:28seats in Congress and had a popularity of 45%.
00:07:31So I don't think the president is as bad as
00:07:35many claim, or the party led by the
00:07:38president, but I think it is important that he recognize
00:07:42the economic problem and how he will improve it in the coming
00:07:45weeks and months. Tatiana, President Trump visited
00:07:49Texas, Oklahoma, Alabama, his tour for these 30 days
00:07:53will be in Republican-majority states to mobilize
00:07:55his base, and César said, projections and polls are one thing,
00:07:59we won't know until after November 3rd when the
00:08:03elections are held, but the outlook is not favorable. Is
00:08:06Trump's message a denial of reality, or is it simply
00:08:10an attempt to minimize the losses of what could come, if it is
00:08:14confirmed that the Democrats will at least regain the House of
00:08:17Representatives?
00:08:19Of course, Juan Carlos, here we are facing a scenario where Trump tries to
00:08:22use a strategy known as the bandwagon
00:08:26effect, where he seeks
00:08:30optimism, because a defeatist
00:08:33discourse, a discourse that shows that the results are
00:08:37not favoring the Republican party and that, of
00:08:40course, the polls reflect this, well, a defeatist
00:08:44discourse can generate a loss of votes within
00:08:48his own base, and the reality we are seeing now is
00:08:52that within the Republicans themselves, there is a
00:08:55certain pessimism regarding the results.
00:08:58There is also, within the Republicans themselves, an enormous
00:09:02distancing or a great distancing from
00:09:05Trump's support. Many candidates are distancing themselves from
00:09:08receiving that support from Trump because they know very well that these
00:09:12midterm elections, although President Trump will not be
00:09:16elected, are a referendum, a way
00:09:19to assess how his government has been, and
00:09:23in effect, what it shows is that his government has not fulfilled
00:09:27a promise that was central to his campaign, which is to
00:09:30improve the cost of living, the economy or the
00:09:33pockets of Americans, and of course
00:09:36that also comes accompanied by factors
00:09:39such as the war in Iran that has raised gasoline
00:09:42prices, it also comes accompanied by the
00:09:46deportation policy and the immigration policy
00:09:50that in some way has been contrary to the promises he made in
00:09:53his campaign and that has lost a great reach within a group that in the
00:09:57last elections supported him, such as the Latino vote.
00:10:01And I'll close with this: perhaps
00:10:04the bandwagon effect does not have
00:10:08or what Trump seeks with his optimism campaign does not
00:10:11he expects, because in the end, as many have
00:10:15argued here, these elections are also measured
00:10:18by the pocket, and historical records show that at least for the
00:10:22House, the parties that are in
00:10:25government tend to lose elections, except in specific cases
00:10:28like Clinton in
00:10:311998 and Bush in
00:10:342002, but of course, everything tends to
00:10:37indicate that what Trump is arguing, blaming Republicans for not knowing
00:10:41how to communicate the results of his government, is not the
00:10:44reality and is not what
00:10:47results of these elections. Juan Carlos, there is an interesting
00:10:51phenomenon, which is that the same forces or the same
00:10:55pressure that led to
00:10:58the elections not being favorable to the
00:11:02Democrats against Trump, the economy, the
00:11:05perception that things are not going well, are the same thing that is
00:11:09now going to come back to haunt the Republicans, we will see if it is confirmed,
00:11:12and I say this because if one looks at the
00:11:15basic economic data, it is not bad.
00:11:19The economy, unemployment is at 4.2%, which is the
00:11:23latest figure, which is very low unemployment, inflation is
00:11:27high, but the markets react
00:11:30positively, there are many pressures, but it is still
00:11:33an economy with a performance
00:11:36that is considered favorable. Here Trump is facing the same
00:11:39process and is interpreting it in his own way. Yes, and
00:11:43see how interesting, because indeed what cost the Democrats the
00:11:46election in 2020,
00:11:49uh, 26,
00:11:5224, was not the defense of democracy, it was not
00:11:56the defense of institutions, it was an economic
00:11:59issue. The cost of living during Joe Biden's
00:12:02presidency, inflation increased above levels we hadn't seen
00:12:06since the early 80s. This eventually took its
00:12:09toll on the Democrats, there is no other explanation. In this
00:12:13case, of course, inflation has fallen from those high levels it
00:12:16reached, approximately 9%, but it is very far from
00:12:20reaching the Federal Reserve's inflation target of 2%. It has been
00:12:24between 3.6 and 3.8,
00:12:27and with a cause, and it has increased due to a
00:12:30very identifiable cause that is very attributable to Donald Trump's
00:12:34government, the war in Iran. When the
00:12:37increase in inflation occurred during Biden's presidency, it was due, of
00:12:41course, to the effects of the pandemic, to an injection of a lot
00:12:44of liquidity into the economy, a result of the fiscal
00:12:47stimuli that were made due to the pandemic. Even so, people
00:12:51identified that those policies were the ones that fueled
00:12:54inflation. In this case, the cause
00:12:57is much more identifiable, an invasion of a country that was
00:13:01totally without any kind of provocation, which raised oil
00:13:04prices, energy costs, and that has been transmitted throughout the economy,
00:13:08we see it then not only with the price of gasoline but also the price of diesel
00:13:12which has been close to $6 per
00:13:16gallon and that, of course, is transmitted into higher production
00:13:19costs for farmers, for public transport, etcetera,
00:13:23etcetera. So
00:13:25it is much more difficult for Republicans to defend their
00:13:29economic record, despite all the other things you say, it is indeed
00:13:33a very resilient economy,
00:13:35but ultimately what matters to Americans is not
00:13:39so much how the stock market is doing, how the unemployment rate is,
00:13:43it is the cost of living, and that has been aggravated by the war in Iran and by tariffs.
00:13:46Well, we have to
00:14:18break.
00:14:22The full story with Anderson Cooper, the best.
00:17:42Since Trump was a candidate in 2015, he has been sending a
00:17:45message in which he tells voters directly,
00:17:48don't believe what you see, don't believe what
00:17:51I tell you, in that case the president of the United States, and he now says
00:17:55that things are very good, but let's review a poll from this week
00:17:59from API, one of the questions is
00:18:02about how Trump is doing in terms of cost of
00:18:05living. From September
00:18:0718th to 24th, the result is that barely
00:18:1017%, that is, two out of every 10 respondents,
00:18:14approves of Trump's management in terms of cost of living,
00:18:1782% disapproves.
00:18:20Uh, Tatiana already mentioned
00:18:25emperor's new clothes, because one would think
00:18:28that Trump is disconnected from reality,
00:18:32we do and what the economic
00:18:35numbers show. A while ago, for example, a
00:18:38midterm convention, the first time the
00:18:41Republicans do it in Dallas, Texas,
00:18:44he was the protagonist, there he told voters to pretend that
00:18:48he is on the ballot and told them to make all the fraud they want for the Republicans to
00:18:52win. Trump promises, but his message is
00:18:55clear, but that strategy shows
00:18:58a Trump who sees a different country than the rest of Americans
00:19:02see. Of course, the disconnection
00:19:06is not in how the economy is managed, but the disconnection
00:19:10is in how much the cost of living is for Americans,
00:19:13and precisely now they were talking about how the economy and employment rates
00:19:17can go up, but that doesn't necessarily directly
00:19:21affect the cost of living for people, and the truth
00:19:24is that a person when they go to a supermarket, when they need
00:19:28to get gas, they realize that everything is much
00:19:31more expensive, and that is the reality that people live in, and I think
00:19:35the perfect example is California. Monthly,
00:19:38thousands of jobs are created in California, and that does not mean
00:19:41that it reduces in any way or improves the
00:19:45conditions of the cost of living, and I think here an additional
00:19:48example that serves very well to understand how Americans are thinking
00:19:52and how the cost of living is at the forefront is the success that Mandani has had
00:19:56in New York with his campaign,
00:20:00he focused precisely on understanding that the main concern of citizens
00:20:03was the cost of living and not other things in which
00:20:08many leaders get distracted when doing these campaigns,
00:20:11so I would close with this, surely there is an immense disconnection of the
00:20:15president with the reality that Americans are living, and especially
00:20:19regarding the cost of living, but we should add to this that all
00:20:23of this is of course part of his campaign strategy and the logic
00:20:27he always follows where his narrative must be
00:20:30the one that must prevail over the others. Here, César,
00:20:34this week, for example, there was controversy, the government was publishing
00:20:37ads that they say are public
00:20:41announcements, but they are very similar to his
00:20:44campaign ads, which were paid for with funds from the Immigration
00:20:48and Customs Enforcement. He says it is to foster
00:20:50patriotism, but
00:20:54they look like campaign issues at a time when the
00:20:58country's situation is complex, and
00:21:01you said something that is also interesting, we will see if this is confirmed on November
00:21:043rd and if Trump gets away with it, but if not, if the
00:21:07Democrats win the House and win both the House and Senate, the
00:21:11scenario for Trump will be very different starting next
00:21:14year. Juan Carlos, several things. First,
00:21:18well, yes, I understand what you mentioned about the commercials they've been running, I'm not going
00:21:22to go into whether beyond how a certain
00:21:25electorate perceives it, there are others
00:21:28who believe that it is a call to that
00:21:32patriotism to the United
00:21:35States. The issue of how
00:21:38the president will fare will not only be, for me, a
00:21:41reflection of how the next two years will be
00:21:45in the legislative part and how Donald Trump's presidency
00:21:48turns out, but also how
00:21:512028 comes. I think that will also be a thermometer, a very valuable
00:21:55thermometer for that 2028, who
00:21:59can really take the lead for the Republicans
00:22:02and be a good candidate,
00:22:05but also what candidate the Democrats
00:22:08need. I disagree with Tatiana, I don't think
00:22:10that populism is the solution, I
00:22:14was one of the first to criticize during that
00:22:18political rally of the president
00:22:20in Dallas when he promised $5. It seems to me that a $500 solution
00:22:24is a crazy thing, I don't, I don't
00:22:27believe in populism, I don't believe in
00:22:30handouts in exchange for something specific. Mandani
00:22:33has very clearly made enormous promises that end up
00:22:36sacrificing the economy, free
00:22:40markets. I find rent control and all those kinds of things he
00:22:43promises terrible, which in the end in the long run and over time generate
00:22:47more poverty, and the
00:22:50president, well, I think he has made those mistakes. I think he doesn't
00:22:54need, neither this administration nor the Republicans
00:22:57need those kinds
00:23:00of promises, simply finding the right
00:23:04public policy, they already did it with tax reform
00:23:07to continue improving the economy. You see, in
00:23:11terms of immigration, well, it has also affected him in many
00:23:15areas and districts, like here in Miami-Dade County, but if you look at the general vote, they
00:23:18continue to support him in relation to border
00:23:21security, so see
00:23:24exactly what is failing and improve it. César,
00:23:30Mandani represents is not populism, it is
00:23:35the people who live in New York, and of course understanding that
00:23:39reality implies that the biggest challenge people face
00:23:42is the cost of living, far from populism being the solution, in his
00:23:46opinion, Mandani's solution is the
00:23:48correct one. Regardless of whether it is correct
00:23:52or incorrect, it is a real understanding of what the priorities
00:23:56of a citizenry are, and of course to
00:23:59this we must add that Trump's promise, let's remember, was
00:24:03to reduce costs, it was to guarantee a life that was
00:24:07much more affordable for
00:24:09Americans, and the question I would ask César is whether he has
00:24:13achieved it or not, and I think he has not achieved it, and precisely
00:24:17for that reason his level of economic management, his disapproval level is as high
00:24:21as what we just saw. I think that political decisions, sometimes the menu of
00:24:25political decisions that a politician has to have, also
00:24:28based on timing, I think the timing of the Iran issue, and I disagree with Juan Carlos on
00:24:32this, I believe that Iran is indeed a global threat, and beyond whether they declare
00:24:35war directly or not on the United States, they have done so through
00:24:39other proxies, but beyond
00:24:42that, I don't think this year was the moment or the timing for the Iran issue, and I think
00:24:46that has taken its toll in terms of gasoline. But the solution
00:24:49is never, in my opinion, economic
00:24:53populism, never, never, never. Well,
00:24:56there's an issue here, we have to go to the break. I wasn't talking about Iran, I know it's
00:25:00Hidalgo, but it's interesting, Trump calls
00:25:03Mamdani "my little communist," they have a relationship that surprises many
00:25:07because they get along very well, but Mandani's popularity, as
00:25:11Tatiana highlights, is much higher than Trump's. He has
00:25:15defied this whole debate about
00:25:19whether Democrats are socialists in the United States and whether they have
00:25:23a place or not. We'll talk about this when we return from the break. We're in
00:25:26"Clash of Opinion."
00:25:29Our obligation as journalists is to tell things as
00:25:33they are and not necessarily as they want us to
00:25:35tell them.
00:25:38We want to have great minds talking about the
00:25:41most important issues that affect our countries and
00:25:45us as people.
00:25:48I have a responsibility to tell the truth, to be truthful, not to
00:25:52be neutral, they are very different things. Oppenheimer.
00:25:55presents on Sunday on
00:25:58CNN,
00:26:00I am Mexican-British and I have been practicing
00:26:04journalism for 20 years in Mexico City, in the United
00:26:07States, and now in Miami for CNN. CNN
00:26:11América is a multi-platform program where you will
00:26:15get information from all areas that will allow you
00:26:18to understand the world from the angle you are viewing it. In
00:26:22those 3 hours, you will not only have information from a
00:26:25political and economic perspective, but also
00:26:29health from a women's perspective, but above all. It is a
00:26:33space where we can have conversations not to
00:26:36polarize, but to integrate society.
00:26:41What excites me the most is to inform,
00:26:43inquire, investigate the why of things, get to the bottom
00:26:47of the facts, here you will see what makes news and everything that
00:26:51impacts your daily life. CNN América with Rebecca
00:26:54Kelly, Monday to Friday on
00:26:56CNN.
00:27:31The need to migrate knows no age, many
00:27:34say they want to reach Mexico City, but others seek
00:27:38to go further
00:27:39north.
00:27:42The anti-drone battalion of the Mexican army consists of
00:27:46this type of element of inhibitors to bring down drones
00:27:49that have become a threat. The
00:27:52authorities of Chiapas have detected a cattle smuggling
00:27:56point. This is one of the illegal crossing
00:27:59points for cattle going from Central America
00:28:03to Mexico. Thousands of protesters, workers of this
00:28:08Independencia. I am in
00:28:12the municipality of Teuchitlán in the Mexican state of Jalisco. Here
00:28:15the discovery was macabre by groups of people
00:28:19searching for the disappeared. What
00:28:22made you come here with the suspicion that your son could be on this
00:28:26ranch?
00:29:31In an instant. The conversation continues one month before the midterm
00:29:35elections in the United States and a panorama that, at least on paper,
00:29:38favors the
00:29:39Democrats.
00:29:43Live from Mexico
00:29:45City.
00:29:47A story can change everything. A look at the
00:29:51reconstruction efforts of a city and the hope of a people
00:29:55determined to rise, evolved very quickly, and we never
00:29:58thought it would reach a category five. And to understand what
00:30:02is. We go with my colleague Ione Molinares to
00:30:06Washington,
00:30:08the explosion, well, we can see the dimension it had to take down the entire facade.
00:30:12We hear the protagonists, they
00:30:15mocked us as mothers and fathers of the 43, where
00:30:19she lived, a bomb fell, we are about to board this
00:30:23Mexican air force plane bound for Romania to
00:30:26get a complete view, we are here as
00:30:29migrants to progress, to make this country grow. There are great
00:30:33stories to know and many perspectives to analyze.
00:30:36Perspectives with Mario González, Monday to
00:30:39Friday on CNN.