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00:00:00to our colleagues in Atlanta and Mexico City, we thank you for
00:00:03your company. We'll see you on Monday on Direct USA and next Sunday
00:00:06again here on Clash of Opinions on CNN. See you later,
00:00:22we are CNN, the world leader in
00:00:25news.
00:00:39Hello, good evening, welcome to Conclusiones, I'm Mario
00:00:42González, this time for my colleague Fernando del Rincón, and
00:00:45we begin amidst judicial controversies over the
00:00:49presidential election, Brazil enters the final stretch of
00:00:52this process. The frontrunners are President Luis
00:00:56Ignacio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro.
00:01:00Almost 159 million are called to the polls this
00:01:03Sunday.
00:01:06The Legislative Assembly of Bolivia discussed what to do after the
00:01:09controversial detention of prosecutor general Roger
00:01:12Mariaca and amidst pressures from
00:01:15the executive.
00:01:18After the deadly, simultaneous earthquakes of
00:01:21June, several Venezuelans are seeking the so-called American dream in a new migrant
00:01:25caravan advancing through southern
00:01:27Mexico.
00:01:30Venezuelan human rights activist Rocío San Miguel is acquitted,
00:01:33she was released from prison a few days after the capture of Nicolás Maduro,
00:01:37she had been accused of an alleged plot against the then
00:02:17this Sunday, October 4, almost 159 million Brazilians
00:02:21of 25% on part of are called to the polls to elect president, governors,
00:02:24federal and state deputies, and two-thirds of the Senate. The
00:02:28elections take place in a framework. of a judiciary facing
00:02:31accusations of politicization and that
00:02:35yesterday moved new pieces on the eve of the last presidential
00:02:38debate that led, according to the organizing network TV Globo,
00:02:42to its cancellation, this after two decisions taken by
00:02:45magistrates of higher courts, the first was from magistrate
00:02:49Estela Arana in which she prohibited showing
00:02:53the lectern that would be left empty by Luis Ignacio Lula
00:02:56da Silva who had decided not to participate and in view of this
00:02:59resolution. Flavio Bolsonaro announced that he would also
00:03:02not attend the debate. The second resolution, the
00:03:06dean of the Supreme Court, Gilmar
00:03:09Méndez, determined that the
00:03:12participation of the candidate of Mission, Renan Santos,
00:03:16despite the party not meeting
00:03:19than the legal requirements to be invited, and after these decisions Globo cancelled the debate and
00:03:23Brazilians were left without the possibility of evaluating the candidates for
00:03:27the last time before the Sunday vote.
00:03:31In the first round, Lula da Silva is ahead in the
00:03:33polls. The Nexus polls commissioned
00:03:37by Banco BTG Pactual show a
00:03:40effectively before favorable difference for the president. Lula reaches
00:03:4342% of the voting intention, while Bolsonaro
00:03:47reaches 37, 37%. For its
00:03:50part, the consulting firm Quist published this
00:03:54Monday a new result that shows a similar difference
00:03:58between Lula's voting intention against. 9% and Bolsonaro with
00:04:0234%, practically the same distance. In both
00:04:05polls, the margin of error is two percentage
00:04:07points.
00:04:10Lula no longer brings me the same security as he did in his first terms,
00:04:14so that's why today I'm choosing Flavio, because today he gives me a little more
00:04:18security about doing something different,
00:04:21so that's my choice. No, it doesn't mean
00:04:24it's better, but today he gives better security than Lula. Bolsonaro was
00:04:28a... he was a... We who work under the
00:04:32CLT, we lost a lot, but Lula
00:04:35helped a lot, but Brazil's problem, everyone
00:04:39knows, is taxes,
00:04:42taxes are very high, why do we have to improve, even Lula
00:04:45I'm not saying this because I'm a member of the Workers' Party, but it's to
00:04:48lower taxes,
00:04:52let's remember that if no candidate exceeds 50% of the votes, something
00:04:56that seems will be a reality, there will be a second electoral round on October
00:05:00different moment in 25, there the scenario is more complicated, that could be
00:05:03that more difficult scenario for Lula because most
00:05:07of the candidates who would be left out are right-wing
00:05:11and there is no strong left-wing candidate who can support Lula da Silva as
00:05:14happened in 2022, which is why
00:05:17the polls point to a closer second round, in that
00:05:19scenario, according to the Nexus poll,
00:05:23a five-point difference shrinks to just two,
00:05:27two percentage points, with 46% for Lula and
00:05:3044% of the voting intention for Bolsonaro, let's remember that the
00:05:34margin of error is 2%, while
00:05:37for the Aquaest consulting firm the difference disappears in an
00:05:40eventual second round. already a tie, 42 points for
00:05:44each candidate. Lula seeks a fourth non-consecutive
00:05:48term. Bolsonaro has said that he wants
00:05:51to continue the legacy of his father, former president Jair
00:05:54Bolsonaro, although they have the same objective to win the presidency of
00:05:58Brazil, their visions for the future are very different,
00:06:01polarizing. Alessandra Freitas tells
00:06:04us.
00:06:07Corruption scandals, family dramas, and polarization
00:06:11mark the turbulent presidential campaign in Brazil. On
00:06:14October 4, millions of Brazilians vote in the first
00:06:17round. The dispute is once again marked by two well-known
00:06:21surnames. President Luis Ignacio Lula da
00:06:24Silva, 80 years old, seeks a fourth term
00:06:28and faces Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, eldest son of former
00:06:31president Jair Bolsonaro. Lula
00:06:34defeated Bolsonaro in 2022, after
00:06:38having been imprisoned. Now it is Jair who has been sentenced
00:06:42to more than 27 years of prison for an attempt to
00:06:45reverse that defeat through a coup and
00:06:49to serve house arrest for humanitarian reasons.
00:06:53Within Brazil, economy, cost of living, public
00:06:57security, and organized crime dominate the
00:06:59campaign, but the geopolitical dimension is also
00:07:03especially present. Lula da Silva and Flavio
00:07:06Bolsonaro represent very different visions for Brazil.
00:07:10This country maintains a complicated relationship
00:07:12with the United States and deals with tariffs since last
00:07:16year. In 2025, Trump imposed tariffs of up to
00:07:2050% on Brazilian imports and
00:07:23linked the measure to the process against Jair Bolsonaro, which
00:07:27he called a witch hunt. This year,
00:07:30Washington imposed a new tariff
00:07:34Brazilian exports, for trade
00:07:37practices it considers unfair. Flavio traveled to
00:07:40Washington to ask for the new tariff to be postponed until after the
00:07:44elections, arguing that it could politically
00:07:47benefit Lula. The Brazilian president accuses his
00:07:51main contender of defending his own interests above
00:07:54national ones, and turned Brazilian sovereignty into
00:07:58a campaign issue. When I asked Flavio if he wanted
00:08:02to postpone tariffs or eliminate them, he backed
00:08:05down.
00:08:09While Flavio Bolsonaro draws close to Trump and other right-wing leaders
00:08:13in the region, Lula da Silva advocates a multipolar
00:08:15foreign policy, deepening ties
00:08:19with China and the BRICS bloc of emerging countries. Between
00:08:23January and August, China received about 31% of Brazilian
00:08:27exports, the United States, less than
00:08:3010%. Before the UN, Lula again warned against foreign
00:08:33interference in the Brazilian
00:08:36elections. Brazil does not
00:08:39fit in anyone's backyard. This
00:08:42country is the next big chapter in a year of
00:08:45extremely polarized and reunited elections in
00:08:48Latin America. In Colombia and Peru, right-wing candidates won,
00:08:52adding to the region's political shift. Now, with Lula and
00:08:56Flavio tied in the polls, in the face of a probable
00:08:59second round, the world watches what direction
00:09:02Brazil will take. Alessandra Freitas,
00:09:05CNN.
00:09:08Giant of South America, what direction will Brazilians choose? What
00:09:12issues will mark the decision? We will analyze it with my guest tonight,
00:09:15noche,
00:09:32practically, a real train crash is looming
00:09:36with a reserved forecast, as we have just seen,
00:09:39Fernando.
00:09:42Look, we have a first round that is already
00:09:45very, it is very disputed, which will take place on
00:09:48Sunday, with a climate of
00:09:52much polarization, as Alessandra Freds
00:09:55highlighted very well in her
00:09:57introduction, uh, and we have a
00:10:00situation in which,
00:10:03uh, there is
00:10:07a lot, especially the ruling party,
00:10:11talking a lot about foreign interference in the
00:10:14elections, that issue uh, is already being raised,
00:10:17there were interventions by the judiciary
00:10:20yesterday, for example in the
00:10:24debate of that didn't happen
00:10:28and we are in a situation where
00:10:32the judiciary here in Brazil is very empowered and
00:10:35is dictating the rules of the
00:10:38elections as never happened
00:10:42before, and I say dictating the rules is extrapolating
00:10:45these rules, so
00:10:49uh, I see that we can have everything in that
00:10:52from a decision, for example,
00:10:55for example
00:10:57uh, after the second round where a diploma
00:11:00is suspended, because there are also
00:11:03ministers of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil who are
00:11:07literally in survival mode, who
00:11:10know that if Flavio
00:11:13Bolsonaro wins the elections they will hardly
00:11:17survive
00:11:19uh in the
00:11:21court.
00:11:26Now, what you mention about this, which we also
00:11:29outlined a bit before uh the judiciary,
00:11:33in case the process is judicialized,
00:11:36there are great risks and there are great
00:11:39possibilities that the issue will be judicialized, a
00:11:43second electoral round, small margins of distance,
00:11:46generally this ends up in the
00:11:48courts,
00:11:50yes, but I don't think
00:11:54the same thing will happen, the same type of
00:11:57allegation that occurred in 2022 when the
00:12:01integrity of the electoral system and the security of electronic
00:12:05voting machines were questioned, I believe
00:12:08that today it is more clearly perceived
00:12:11that uh the environment of this
00:12:15debate, of the electoral debate, will
00:12:20of foreign interference,
00:12:22uh, and that. I say
00:12:25because I clearly see the
00:12:28movement of the incumbent party, the ruling
00:12:31party, the workers' party, moving
00:12:35in that direction, they have already even
00:12:38uh uh
00:12:41filed lawsuits
00:12:44uh in the superior electoral court and also took
00:12:47the issue to the supreme federal court
00:12:50talking precisely about this issue of
00:12:53foreign interference. So I think that it can be
00:12:56there uh especially at a time when it is said
00:13:00that there are ministers who are
00:13:03playing the game of ministers of the supreme federal court who are playing the
00:13:07game of the government
00:13:11this raises a worrying scenario that
00:13:14I hope does not
00:13:16happen
00:13:21this that you mention about foreign interference, well we have seen it in
00:13:24many. many in many elections, the most recent ones in Latin
00:13:27America, uh, how much can this
00:13:30trend influence, especially in Latin America, but
00:13:33worldwide, uh, do you think it can be clearly
00:13:36perceived in this electoral process, how much does
00:13:40the Donald Trump factor weigh here,
00:13:43for example,
00:13:46I see that this is being explored from a political
00:13:49point of view, but that is a concern
00:13:53more uh. from an internal point
00:13:56of view, I say that I don't believe there is
00:13:59really clear interference,
00:14:02there are sympathies from Trump
00:14:06uh and today for example the
00:14:09US embassy in Brasília
00:14:13issued a security alert, it was
00:14:15closed to the public
00:14:19and released
00:14:22a note talking about
00:14:26uh that the US diplomatic
00:14:30representation was closed for security reasons, so that fuels
00:14:34this uncertainty, this
00:14:38climate that talks about foreign
00:14:41interference, but I don't think that's real, I think that's
00:14:45being politically exploited for
00:14:49the case of a defeat of the ruling
00:14:52party.
00:15:17Cooper, CNN's best journalists
00:15:21documented stories. use apple. If I was to take
00:15:40The full story with Anderson Cooper, tonight on
00:15:44CNN. Live
00:15:51change everything, a look at the reconstruction efforts of a
00:15:55city and the hope of a people committed to rising. It evolved
00:15:59very quickly and we never thought it would become a category
00:16:025. And to understand what is happening. Let's
00:16:06go with my colleague.
00:16:10to Washington, the explosion, well we can see the dimension it had to take away the entire
00:16:14facade, we listen to the protagonists,
00:16:18they made fun of us as mothers and fathers of the
00:16:2143, where she lived a bomb fell, we are about to
00:16:24board this Mexican air force plane bound for
00:16:28Romania to have a complete vision, we are here
00:16:31as migrants to progress, to make this country grow, there are great
00:16:35stories to know and many. Perspectives to analyze
00:16:39Perspectives with Mario González from Monday to Friday
00:16:42on CNN.
00:18:35Brazil has a lot at stake in this. of the electoral process on Sunday, two completely
00:18:39different visions, the Latin American region must also be
00:18:43very attentive because it also implies maintaining that
00:18:46distance of Lula da Silva and his administration from the United States, for
00:18:49example, or marking a completely
00:19:00Electoral Court, uh, at what point does this come
00:19:03yesterday, this decision to finally suspend the television station?
00:19:07The political debate has been widely commented on,
00:19:11there is uncertainty about the role that the electoral court may play
00:19:14in this electoral process, Fernando, is there, let's say, a
00:19:18risk?
00:19:21Yes, I believe that risk exists
00:19:23clearly, and I would say that we are not even
00:19:27talking about the Superior Electoral Court, because the Superior
00:19:30Electoral Court for the first time since the
00:19:34re-democratization of Brazil
00:19:37Uh, it is completely
00:19:40annulled by the Supreme Federal
00:19:43Court, always in the elections in
00:19:46Brazil, the Superior Electoral Court that
00:19:49dictated the decisions and
00:19:53those decisions were always respected,
00:19:57but this time the Supreme Federal Court
00:20:01is commanding
00:20:03the electoral game.
00:20:07So, uh, decisions are made
00:20:11by individual ministers of
00:20:15the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil
00:20:17and sometimes
00:20:21correcting decisions of the Superior
00:20:24Electoral Court, a
00:20:27situation that was not seen in
00:20:31past elections and
00:20:34that is why I say that
00:20:37there is a situation where a single minister can make
00:20:41a decision that changes uh that
00:20:45causes a result that
00:20:47interferes with the result in the. and the electoral process
00:20:51as it was yesterday, yesterday that debate was not held
00:20:55basically due to a decision by
00:20:59a minister of the superior electoral court
00:21:02who was an advisor to President
00:21:05Lula uh, that is also another
00:21:09problem we have with the
00:21:11appointment of ministers
00:21:14who are who have
00:21:18strong political content, a political
00:21:22bias and that clearly
00:21:25shows how much that is harming the
00:21:28electoral
00:21:29process,
00:21:34we reviewed some polls a moment ago, a technical tie
00:21:38practically, uh, with a very high possibility of
00:21:41a second round between these two Brazilian politicians,
00:21:45do you think the decision has already been made
00:21:49by the majority? by the Brazilians or is there still a good
00:21:52margin of indecision that will be announced next
00:21:56Sunday? I see
00:21:59that we will have yes a second
00:22:03round that will take place three weeks later on
00:22:06October 25, today only
00:22:0910% of the votes are for
00:22:13candidates who are not Lula or Flavio Bolsonaro
00:22:16so
00:22:19practically. impossible for any of these two
00:22:21candidates to reach 50% with one more
00:22:25vote, so we will have a second now, in case of a
00:22:28second round, these 10% of
00:22:32votes that are with other candidates are
00:22:36mostly votes
00:22:38uh of voters
00:22:42who are more aligned with the political
00:22:45spectrum of the right, of the right, so
00:22:49I think that... that at least two-thirds of those votes
00:22:53polling institutes
00:22:57should migrate to the
00:23:00candidate Flavio Bolsonaro in a scenario that today
00:23:04is uh basically impacted
00:23:08it can cause the voting
00:23:10intention of Flavio Bolsonaro to grow, I would
00:23:14say that uh
00:23:16today Flavio Bolsonaro has better. better
00:23:20conditions to eventually win these
00:23:23elections, of course the government has instruments
00:23:26to manage and to seek to
00:23:30reverse this game also, we are at a time
00:23:33in Brazil when not 24 hours pass
00:23:37without a new corruption
00:23:39scandal emerging, the biggest financial
00:23:43fraud in the country's history is happening now, master
00:23:47bank and every day it arises:
00:24:18politics is practically immediate, right? It is distributed through social networks, all these types go
00:24:22viral and have effects, we have already seen it, they have very important
00:24:25electoral effects, from here the second round would be on October 25 and
00:24:29many things can happen, as you also say, how coalitions
00:24:33could be configured, it seems that the right would have more power in any
00:24:36case, now there are two already known, already tested models, there is
00:24:40nothing new under the sun, let's say so, this
00:24:44calls attention, it has not happened as in other Latin American countries where a new one is being
00:24:47tested, here the cards are on the table,
00:24:51Fernando, exactly, that is an important
00:24:55point uh, the
00:24:57strangest thing in this election is that
00:25:01we have known candidates, there are
00:25:04distinct visions, but totally known
00:25:08by the electorate,
00:25:12and the most interesting thing is that both one and
00:25:15the other candidate have strong rejection, Lula
00:25:19a little more. but uh
00:25:23it's a lot when the voter is asked if they had
00:25:26another option, a third way that
00:25:30was electorally viable, of course,
00:25:33uh, more than 50% of the electorate
00:25:36said that yes, both for one and
00:25:40for the other, for the voter who identifies more with one or
00:25:44the other candidate, so it is a
00:25:47very, very
00:25:50Brazilian
00:25:52politics.
00:25:57Now, I mentioned to you a while ago the Donald Trump effect, Donald Trump has
00:26:01been mentioned. on many occasions,
00:26:04uh, due to his friendship with Jair Bolsonaro, he has even
00:26:08intervened for his release with the
00:26:11administration of Luis Ignacio Lula da Silva, however, very
00:26:15recently we have not seen what has happened with
00:26:18other countries where prior to the elections he sends a message, well,
00:26:22this could also happen in the coming
00:26:24hours.
00:26:27I think it is already happening in some way
00:26:30because, for example.
00:27:02more useful as you are saying, but quite
00:27:05visible, uh, let's see, it's good, uh, well obviously the
00:27:09influence that Brazil has for Latin America and this debate
00:27:13that exists, Fernando, or these tendencies to approach
00:27:16Washington with the pressure that Washington is exerting, of course, through
00:27:20various commercial mechanisms, uh, security
00:27:23policy also where drug trafficking also becomes
00:27:26a very powerful tool to
00:27:30uh well, to approach uh towards. Latin America to be
00:27:33present, uh or maintaining that uh
00:27:37healthy distance where uh
00:27:41well Brazil is also uh with an
00:27:43open market in Europe with China
00:27:47uh all that is at
00:27:48stake yes, yes, I think
00:27:52there is a geopolitical chessboard that
00:27:56and that Brazil plays a very, very
00:27:59important role, Brazil got very close
00:28:02to China, that's a fact
00:28:06uh uh Washington views this with
00:28:08concern obviously for
00:28:11losing influence in Latin America, right, and
00:28:15especially
00:28:16Brazil but I see
00:28:19that
00:28:21uh Lula also uh was very
00:28:25close to uh totalitarian
00:28:28governments supported for
00:28:32example Nicolás Maduro
00:28:35uh the role that Brazil played
00:28:38in uh weak in terms of the elections in
00:28:42Venezuela uh that could have
00:28:46exercised better its regional
00:28:49leadership and it didn't he did, so I think that
00:28:53helped to wear down the relationship with
00:28:56the United States and Trump
00:29:00obviously saw. in
00:29:03that a space of fragility
00:29:06to also impose his his
00:29:10doctrine and I believe that
00:29:13if Lula wins the elections, there
00:29:16will be
00:29:19a little bit more of a distancing
00:29:22already exists today, although Lula
00:29:25is a pragmatic man, he knows that
00:29:29it's necessary to try to
00:29:32reconstruct this relationship that is
00:29:36quite worn out today, but I think it won't be
00:29:39possible to reconstruct it
00:29:43the mandate of Donald
00:29:46Trump. We have to wait for
00:29:49a Democrat in the United
00:29:52States to try to improve
00:29:56this relationship.
00:30:19to conclusions, Venezuelans affected by the earthquakes in a
00:30:22migrant caravan that seeks to cross Mexico to the United
00:30:25States.
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