Google Cloud Speech-to-Text API (Chirp) + Gemini 2.5 Flash Non-Thinking. Treat it as a searchable index of what was broadcast, not a quotation record.
00:00:00art, a Tatiana, a Rocío, for having joined us, and to you for allowing us to enter
00:00:04your homes. I am Juan Carlos López, on behalf of the technical and
00:00:08most watched production team of CNN Washington, and our colleagues
00:00:10from Choque de Opiniones at CNN in Atlanta and Mexico City.
00:00:14We thank you for your company. We'll see you on Monday on Directo USA, on
00:00:17Tuesday in our special coverage of the Latino vote in the
00:00:21midterm elections, and, of course, next Sunday
00:00:24here on Choque de Opiniones on CNN. See you
00:00:26later.
00:00:41We are CNN, the world leader in news.
00:00:59Hello, and welcome to Mexico. It's a pleasure to greet you. We are in the
00:01:02final stretch of the midterm elections in the United
00:01:06States, with a lot of activity, of course, from the
00:01:09campaigns, with Donald Trump still campaigning. Former
00:01:12President Barack Obama has also joined the campaign, and
00:01:16he is also doing his part to
00:01:18has a factor because a lot of what try to rally the Democratic electorate. In a race where there
00:01:21is uncertainty, there are, of course, reserved forecasts in many
00:01:24states. Where should we pay attention? We will talk about this, how the
00:01:28race has unfolded. We will talk about all of this on this occasion in Mexico opina, almost
00:01:32the data, ready for whatever on the eve of the elections, and I am joined by a distinguished
00:01:35panel on this occasion. I am joined by Professor Raquel
00:01:38Zaet, academic from the Department of International Studies at Iberoamericana.
00:01:42Thank you, Raquel, for being with us. Many thanks. Larry Rubin
00:01:45is President of the American Society of Mexico. Thank you, Larry, for being with us. On the
00:01:49contrary, Mario, thank you very much. And Marc Sable, spokesman for the Democratic Party
00:01:52in Mexico. Marc, good to have you here. Welcome. Let's see,
00:01:56Raquel, we'll talk about the parties and how it's
00:02:00going later, but how have you seen the race,
00:02:03how have you seen President Donald Trump's performance,
00:02:07in general terms, right off the bat, let's say, right off the bat. Well,
00:02:10first of all, it looks, it's anticipated as what they
00:02:14call a blue wave. We don't know, because 4 years ago
00:02:17there was an expectation of a red wave, and it didn't happen, it was the other way around,
00:02:21no. However, if the polls seem to be
00:02:25benefiting the Democrats, but again,
00:02:28we don't know what happens is that I believe that the
00:02:32President of the United States himself sees the polls,
00:02:35he is very aware, and therefore he is, even before the race began, when
00:02:39he was redistricting, that he imposed
00:02:43redistricting half of the decade to
00:02:46win districts for the Republicans, but well, it hasn't
00:02:50worked for him because now we are seeing that many of the districts that
00:02:54were purely Republican today
00:02:57have become Democratic or will become
00:03:01Democratic, but this is part of what Trump
00:03:05is doing, and that in addition to envisioning that he will
00:03:09lose this race, he was even seen
00:03:12a couple of months ago even in a closed
00:03:15session with Hakeem Jeffries, who in
00:03:19any case would be the Speaker of the House, that is, the
00:03:22head of the House, but of the House of Representatives, I think he
00:03:26is seeing this art of the deal beforehand,
00:03:29no. But anyway, he is saying that if the
00:03:33Republicans don't win at least one of the two chambers, there is
00:03:36fraud, right? Because it's easier to anticipate, as
00:03:40Bolsonaro also did in Brazil, to anticipate
00:03:43that if he loses, it's because there is fraud. If he wins, there is no
00:03:47fraud. In fact, he said it last
00:03:52McAllen, and yes, I can see weekend. This is what we have seen. We see a President Trump a little
00:03:55desperate due to a low approval rating. Right, and
00:03:59presenting the different
00:04:02rallies and even pulling in
00:04:05people who have nothing to do with it and with a
00:04:09very strange discourse. He doesn't refer
00:04:12(well, I'm going to say it on television) but he refers to the behinds of
00:04:16the senators who are in the race because he finds them very
00:04:20handsome and that's what he thinks will make him win, right? Sometimes
00:04:23behinds give votes, we don't know, but
00:04:27well.
00:04:30Well, there are cases where we know they have given, but let's see, Donald Trump is on the
00:04:33ballot, he has been in the race, but he is on the ballot, is this part of it? Well, look,
00:04:37Mario, I think so, definitely, I just returned from Washington
00:04:41and what we see, both in Washington and in the
00:04:44United States, is that Donald Trump has put himself on the
00:04:49truck or car that helps ballot. He knows that among the Republican electorate,
00:04:51particularly, he has a lot of strength, right? And especially the
00:04:54Republican who is going to vote in the race, because what he
00:04:58is looking for is to get people to vote. That is one of the first factors, right? That the
00:05:02Republican who is not
00:05:05disheartened and wants to vote in this election, the midterms are not
00:05:09that exciting in general for US citizens.
00:05:21It's the factor that President Donald Trump offered at the Republican Convention in Dallas of
00:05:25$500 per person per adult, right? If he wins both chambers,
00:05:29then how much of a factor will that have in this election? We'll know
00:05:33after the election. What is very certain, as Raquel says, is that the polls
00:05:36don't give you an adequate measurement because sometimes they tell you that
00:05:40almost always they have said that Donald Trump cannot win, and he ends up winning,
00:05:44so it's difficult to measure the
00:05:47polls without being directly in each of the
00:05:51districts. It happened in the recent past, right? With the Hispanic vote, for example, that when
00:05:55there were polls, it went very low because it seemed like it was a hidden
00:05:59vote that they didn't want to say, and finally many voted for Donald Trump and more in South
00:06:02Texas. Texas played a central role here
00:06:05because you have a Senate race, right? Which is a
00:06:09key part because Texas is the heart of the
00:06:20polls, they go up and down, but they have placed
00:06:23Paxton closer, probably the injection of the 150
00:06:27million also
00:06:31happens in the United States is also how much money they have in the
00:06:35race, and we see that the races are expensive, very expensive
00:06:38elections, right? Imagine 300 million.
00:07:06Well, look, the issue is why, in my opinion, President Trump will not have a legal problem,
00:07:10it's because he offers it to all Americans.
00:07:12No, it doesn't matter if you vote Democrat, always conditioning adults, ex
00:07:16exactly, so, one could say it's ethical, that
00:07:20would be another word, legal, I think he'll get away with it,
00:07:23ethical depends on each one's opinion, right? And also
00:07:26on the electorate, how much that will
00:07:30play in the vote, well, I can imagine that for a
00:07:33couple who are neither Democrat nor Republican, the
00:07:37doubt enters, right? What if we vote, you and I, $10,000, oh well, what would we do,
00:07:41right? So I think that plays an important role in this
00:07:44race, although the midterms never favor the
00:07:47incumbent president, right? So I think that will also play a
00:07:51role, the difficult thing here, and as
00:07:54you asked from the beginning, is how much is Donald
00:07:58Trump on the ballot? What is true is that, for example, in
00:08:01Texas, he has had eight rallies, and President Trump
00:08:05goes from rally to rally despite this month, I think he's been there four
00:08:08times. Yes, yes, it's a huge number, and
00:08:12obviously inciting
00:08:14and enthusing the base to go out and
00:08:18vote, particularly in South Texas, which is where it's considered that there's more
00:08:21risk and that voted for him in the first race, right?
00:08:25So he's trying to see if they'll vote for him again. That's where the
00:08:29doubt is. He's also betting on the Senate, right? Because undoubtedly
00:08:32the Senate is one of the factors he sees as
00:08:36potential. I particularly believe that because there are
00:08:39so many seats in the Senate that he would have to lose. The
00:08:42Republican party will be able to retain
00:08:45the upper house. The big question is the lower house. If the
00:08:49Democrats don't win the Senate, it's a failure. I have a lot of
00:08:53hope in this case, but obviously it's
00:08:56doubtful, and there are three scenarios. Let's see,
00:08:59one is that they only win the House of Representatives.
00:09:03The second is that they win the House
00:09:06of Representatives and the Senate, but with a
00:09:10majority of one, two, and the third is
00:09:14that they win both chambers and the Senate
00:09:18with a majority that facilitates
00:09:21actions without
00:09:24always having fears of losing by one
00:09:28defection or another. Those would be the three
00:09:31scenarios. Now, in any
00:09:34case, it wouldn't be good
00:09:36to lose control in both chambers for President Donald
00:09:40Trump for the rest of his mandate. It would be a big problem,
00:09:44no. Yes, yes, yes, yes, definitely. Yes, yes.
00:09:47Obviously, if the Democrats didn't win the House, it
00:09:51would be a nightmare, a nightmare, a
00:09:55nightmare. Well, we're going to take the first break and we're going to go into detail with
00:09:59more of this interesting panel about the midterm elections in the United
00:10:02States.
00:10:15Every night there is the possibility of an
00:10:18unfiltered bombardment. They
00:10:21should not treat our young people like this anywhere.
00:10:25Here, it is asked, is there freedom of belief in the country? In
00:10:28Spain, it is heard, these types of phenomena are not
00:10:32the generators of change, they are the expression of a change, and it is
00:10:35debated, will their foreign policy be like this, lukewarm, without
00:10:39taking a stand? Conclusions with Fernando del Rincón,
00:10:43Monday to Friday on CNN. You have
00:10:465 minutes, we have five things for you, a
00:10:49podcast with the five most important topics of the day, just ask
00:10:53your smart device. Give me the latest news from
00:10:57CNN, next I'm going to tell you the five things you need
00:11:01to know at this hour, updated every hour, free of charge or
00:11:04commitments, stay informed from anywhere and at
00:11:08any time, subscribe to our newsletter, listen
00:11:12to the five things you need to know throughout the
00:11:15day. I'm Juan Carlos López, welcome to Choque de
00:11:18Opiniones. Diplomacy, you know very well that what is said
00:11:22in private is not what is said in public, so let's find out what is said
00:11:25in private. Choque de Opiniones on Sunday
00:11:29on
00:11:29CNN,
00:11:33to understand the world you need to seek
00:11:36the truth, let's go back to the time when we had to be much more
00:11:40human, that's why we follow the facts, wherever they
00:11:44take us, no matter how far we have to
00:11:47go from the internal story, there are new
00:11:50statements from President Donald Trump, an external
00:11:54deep perspective. We delve into
00:14:19We continue on Mexico Opina talking about the midterm elections in the United States and what
00:14:22is at stake. Let's see, Mark was telling
00:14:25us that if the Democrats lost the House of Representatives, it would be a
00:14:29real nightmare. The Senate is yet to be seen, but they already have it
00:14:33secured, so practically the House of Representatives, 90%
00:14:37is to win the lower house. Now, where are the
00:14:41states? Larry already mentioned Texas, which is one of the most disputed states, the most
00:14:44difficult. Where else do you see it? Well, it seems
00:14:48that North Carolina is safe for the Democrat because
00:14:51the Republican National Committee withdrew its
00:14:55funds to support its candidate, so
00:14:58it's a good one, it's a win, it's one more
00:15:02addition. Oh, we also have Ohio, which
00:15:06is a close competition,
00:15:09but it seems good because Sherry Brown
00:15:12is a politician with a lot of experience,
00:15:16a lot of credibility and lives with Amazon and
00:15:20has several problems.
00:15:23It's also interesting, we're talking
00:15:26about Alaska, right? Which is
00:15:30a big surprise, right? Because Alaska is super Republican. Yes, it
00:15:33has been Republican, right? There is competition in...
00:15:58it wouldn't be a miracle, no, it's a
00:16:0110%, 20%
00:16:04chance because it's a super Republican canal too.
00:16:09But well, we're also talking about
00:16:12Maine, which is a purple
00:16:15state. Oh, that has
00:16:19the sixth
00:16:22sixth election for
00:16:25Susan Collins. The
00:16:29sixth is the sixth. Yes, she is the
00:16:32Republican senator with the most
00:16:35time in the Senate in history.
00:16:38Yes, how interesting. Hey, but Raquel said a moment
00:16:42ago off-mic that the issue is winning, but
00:16:45also the stance Donald Trump might take regarding those victories
00:16:49arguing fraud. Now, it's one thing to denounce it, "there's fraud here," and another thing to
00:16:53take it to have it echoed in the courts. That's
00:16:56even more difficult. Well, I don't see it as that difficult, and I'll tell you
00:17:00why: because when he came to power in 2024, he
00:17:04made sure to have many assets. Many,
00:17:07many things that would help during his
00:17:11mandate, from having the judges on his
00:17:14side, to having even private lawyers on
00:17:17his side, with whom he could work in case he had to make
00:17:21some kind of complaint, etc., or
00:17:24even having the media and the media that were not with
00:17:28him, well, they are fake news, we know all this,
00:17:32he already has a lot
00:17:35set up to be able to fight. Let's remember that he is a
00:17:39pugilist by nature, he is a fighter, but
00:17:42also he has been involved in this issue of the
00:17:46deal, right? The issue of the deal for him, that is, making
00:17:50a deal with the other, so that's why
00:17:53we are seeing right now maneuvering in terms
00:17:55of the internal political situation, but we even
00:17:58saw it not long ago, but a couple of
00:18:02weeks ago when he made a
00:18:06deal with Putin to get diesel, because
00:18:09diesel is very expensive and that affects inflation
00:18:12in the United States and therefore the elections, so
00:18:16he is also giving it an international twist so that it benefits
00:18:20him in return, so there are many issues there, but
00:18:24I do see that he is very clearly
00:18:27arranging how to fight back, right? Now,
00:18:31I think the Democrats too, however, the Democrats are very busy
00:18:35wanting to win, wanting to recover these seats and even win some
00:18:39that they have never had or that the last time they had them was in the
00:18:43mid-20th century, as in the case of Alaska,
00:18:46I don't know, Iowa, not Texas
00:18:49itself, Iowa, yes, yes, those states, so
00:18:53well, now we'll see, because yes, he does want to fight,
00:18:57I see him. Now, one part is the discourse. We have seen that he gets into
00:19:00electoral conflicts, for example, with what happened in Georgia, all the way to the last
00:19:04consequences, but we have also seen a change in the discourse,
00:19:08for example, of the mail-in vote, which he used to be very critical of, not
00:19:11so much anymore. The stance has changed a bit. It seems more like an electoral
00:19:15campaign strategy, or how do you see it? Well, in
00:19:19part that, and there are states that frankly,
00:19:22he will question, right? Like the state of Alaska, which
00:19:25we were talking about off-air, Alaska has a
00:19:28particular dynamic, right? Because the Republican candidate has the same
00:19:31name as a candidate who appeared out of nowhere, an
00:19:35independent. So Donald Trump says, "They planted him, right? So he
00:19:38would have the same name and divide the Republican vote." So for a
00:19:41confusion, for a confusion, because they have exactly the same name, right?
00:19:45So there's no doubt. So yes, for some voter who doesn't pay
00:19:49attention, they might go for one or the other, right? If he wins with
00:19:53a large margin, then there will be no issue, right? What is
00:19:56interesting about this race is particularly the
00:20:00states that, as Raquel rightly said, had been
00:20:03traditionally Republican, right? Mark said
00:20:06Alaska or Texas itself, right? What will happen? Maybe
00:20:10we won't see much difference. Maybe Paxton, whom we don't anticipate,
00:20:14wins by a large majority. Then you would say, "Well, the polls were bad,
00:20:17no. Texas is a very Republican state." But what we are
00:20:21seeing in the trends would seem to suggest that
00:20:24the Republican party in Texas does not have the strength it had
00:20:28in the previous election. What is very important, and
00:20:31also the profile of Talarico, right? Who is clearly, Talarico has been attractive
00:20:35for, because he is not for the voter, he is
00:20:39very centrist, as Raquel says, very Texan, he is
00:20:43half the most Republican Democrat, and
00:20:47it could be, right? Obviously Paxton has
00:20:50sought some parts where to attack Talarico, but it has
00:20:54been one of the
00:20:58and most expensive races. However,
00:21:01I think Talarico has
00:21:04a chance. I do think he has an opportunity to
00:21:07get in, but well, Texans are very Texan, right? And what
00:21:11happens particularly is that, for example, in
00:21:15Texas, the religious issue is very important, and what they have
00:21:18told Talarico is that he has publicly
00:21:22stated that, for example, God is binary,
00:21:25so he has some issues there that evidently,
00:21:28for a religious person or a conservative from Texas, make a lot of noise.
00:21:32Paxton, well, he has been the Attorney General. The reality is that
00:21:36Texans adore Paxton, right? That's why he has the numbers
00:21:39he has had, right? The particularly Republican, obviously,
00:21:42but it's a state where the majority has been
00:21:46conservative. What has happened interestingly in Texas
00:21:50is that it has been a state that has been changing its demography because
00:21:52cities like Austin and other cities have brought industries
00:21:56from California, they have brought from New York, so it is one of the states that
00:22:00has had the most internal migration. So those who come from California, those who
00:22:04come from New York are no longer those conservatives who used to
00:22:07vote in the state, right? So the demography has changed, that's why you see
00:22:11cities that are now Democratic, right? The city, for example, of
00:22:14Houston is Democratic, San Antonio, Austin,
00:22:18right? And this has changed the demography
00:22:22particularly in the cities, but here what counts is the vote outside the
00:22:25cities, that's why what Trump has done, if we analyze it in
00:22:29detail, is that he has looked for the voter who is in the countryside,
00:22:32right? Because those are his loyal followers, but
00:22:36he has to motivate them to go, because just like Raquel said, when
00:22:40it changes from Cornyn to Paxton, there are those who are for Cornyn, they don't
00:22:44like that change, right? There are, and that, well,
00:22:47evidently can make them not want to go out and vote, and if they don't
00:22:51vote, well, that's evidently a political cost for the Republican
00:22:55party, right? But this is particularly important
00:22:59because Texas is the Republican stronghold, just like California is the
00:23:02Democratic stronghold, right? So hitting the Republican stronghold,
00:23:06and that's why they spend so much on campaigns, both Talarico
00:23:09and Paxton. Part of the campaign is
00:23:13to throw dirt at the opponent, right? That is, Talarico
00:23:16doesn't not throw dirt at Paxton, and Paxton throws dirt
00:23:20at Talarico. That's normal in a race like this, so the important thing we're
00:23:24going to have to note is how this race ends and how
00:23:27close the margins are, right? That is, if the Republican party manages
00:23:31to keep Texas, how close those margins are and if they have
00:23:34narrowed for the Republican
00:23:38party and if the Democrats have grown. Yes, no, and also for a
00:23:41possible post-election conflict, well, the ideal would be
00:23:44large distances, right? To avoid that kind
00:23:47of suspicion and so that it is very difficult to revert an electoral process, I think
00:23:51that would be the key. The problem is that it looks like that, what we see is a very
00:23:55large polarization. I'm going to take a break and I'll be right
00:23:57back
00:24:06with
00:25:11more. The need to migrate knows no age, many
00:25:14say they want to reach Mexico City, but others seek
00:25:18to go further north.
00:25:23The Mexican army's anti-drone battalion consists of these
00:25:26types of elements of inhibitors to take down drones
00:25:29that have become a threat. The
00:25:33Chiapas authorities have detected a cattle smuggling
00:25:36point. This is one of the illegal crossing
00:25:40points for cattle that goes from Central America to
00:25:43Mexico. Thousands of protesters, workers from this
00:25:46country, left at 9:30 in the morning from the
00:25:50Angel of Independence. I am in the municipality of Teuchitlán, in the
00:25:54Mexican state of Jalisco. Here, the discovery was
00:25:57macabre by groups of people searching
00:26:00for the disappeared.
00:26:02What made you come here with the suspicion that your son might be on this
00:26:06ranch?
00:26:10Live from Mexico
00:26:12City,
00:26:15a story can change everything, a look at the efforts
00:26:19to rebuild a city and the hope of a people determined
00:26:22to rise again. It evolved very quickly and we never thought it
00:26:26would reach category five. And to understand what
00:26:29is happening, we go with my colleague and... de Molinares to
00:26:33Washington.
00:26:35The explosion, we can see the dimension it had to take away the entire
00:26:39facade. We hear the protagonists, they
00:26:43mocked us as mothers and fathers of the 43,
00:26:46where she lived, a bomb fell. We are about to board this
00:26:50Mexican air force plane bound for Romania to
00:26:53have a complete vision. We are here as
00:26:56migrants to progress, to make this country grow. There are great
00:27:00stories to discover and many.
00:27:03Perspectives with Mario González, Monday
00:27:07to Friday on CNN.
00:27:10I am Mexican-British, I have been practicing
00:27:14journalism for 20 years in Mexico City, in the United
00:27:18States and now in Miami for CNN. CNN
00:27:22América is a multi-platform program where you will
00:27:25have information from all areas that will allow you
00:27:29to understand the world from whatever angle you are looking at it.
00:27:33In those three hours, you will not only have information from a
00:27:36political and economic perspective, but also
00:27:39health, from a perspective for women, but above all, it is a
00:27:43space where we can have conversations not to
00:27:46polarize, but to integrate society.
00:27:48sociedad.
00:27:51What excites me most is to inform, inquire,
00:27:55investigate the why of things, to go to the bottom of the facts,
00:27:59here you will see what makes news and everything that
00:28:01impacts your daily life. CNN América with Rebecca
00:28:05Kelly, Monday to Friday on
00:28:07CNN.
00:28:13We continue in Mexico opina Marc, let's see, you also wanted to make a point about the state
00:28:17of Texas, yes, it's that well, the Latino vote in Texas is
00:28:21quite important, and the
00:28:25position of Latinos in every nation, even
00:28:28in Texas, has changed a lot in relation to Trump. It's
00:28:32that, well, 2 years ago many
00:28:36of many said that, ah,
00:28:39yes, yes, yes, the Republicans are competitive
00:28:43in in relation to the Latino bloc,
00:28:46but not anymore. - It has
00:28:50returned to the
00:28:52normal percentages
00:28:55or perhaps more for the
00:28:58Democrats. Well, and partly, as Mark says, the Hispanic
00:29:01vote in Texas is very important because it's practically a third
00:29:05of the population, a topic that frustrates me
00:29:08with Hispanics, being Mexican-American and
00:29:12also living in Houston, is that they don't go out to vote, no,
00:29:15I mean, vote Democrat, vote Republican, but go out and
00:29:18vote so that your vote, so that your voice counts, and that's what sometimes
00:29:22happens with the Hispanic vote, particularly the Mexican-American vote, which is the largest,
00:29:25no, the Mexican-American, in the United States
00:29:28there are almost 40 million citizens, if they went out to
00:29:31vote, well. Obviously the politicians of both parties would pay
00:29:35a lot of attention to them. Now, what will happen in South Texas is an important
00:29:38part because you have key congressional districts
00:29:42that can make a difference for either party, that's why President
00:29:45Trump was just in Corpus Christi a couple of days ago. I
00:29:49was in the valley, in what they call the valley in Harlingen, Brownsville and
00:29:54what Mark was just saying, it's an atmosphere of
00:29:58wanting to be strong, very rich there, so we'll see how much
00:30:01he can combine that part. We saw with
00:30:05Beto O'Rourke, for example, El Paso is one that
00:30:08Beto conquered, so this
00:30:11behavior of Hispanics in the strip, let's say, in the border
00:30:15strip, will be very interesting to follow because they did vote for
00:30:18Donald Trump, so if they don't vote, it will be an important protest vote for Donald
00:30:22Trump. Now, I think there's something interesting about
00:30:26why he lost so much Latino support. We would have to
00:30:30see, mainly, we have to take into account
00:30:33that Americans, and I think all people in the world who live in democratic
00:30:36countries, vote with their wallets, how am I doing
00:30:40economically, how do I feel in the kitchen when I'm cooking for my children
00:30:44and I don't have enough to give them, how do I fill up with diesel
00:30:48or gasoline, the
00:30:51me work, produce, all those things
00:30:54are important. Well, that's one of the reasons why Latinos stopped
00:30:58voting, but another...