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00:00:00You'll understand exactly where you
00:00:03of are, round table on TRT
00:00:04World.
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00:00:42of World,
00:00:56has a war launched to weaken Iran actually made it stronger.
00:01:00A possible deal over the straight of hermus could give Tehran
00:01:03unprecedented influence over one
00:01:06of the world's busiest shipping lanes, but what would that mean for the Gulf, the
00:01:09United States and global trade? I'll break it all down here on
00:01:13Straight
00:01:13Talk.
00:01:26of
00:01:32Hello and welcome to Straight talk. I'm Zenab Gokcha. After months of
00:01:36war, blockades and a fragile
00:01:39of ceasefire, details of a possible deal to reopen the straight of
00:01:42hermus are beginning to emerge. Iran and Oman have
00:01:46reportedly drafted a proposal that would give Tehran
00:01:49unprecedented control over ships entering the strategic
00:01:52waterway. Outbound traffic would leave through Armani waters, but the
00:01:56biggest sticking point isn't navigation, it's money.
00:02:01A senior Iranian source told Reuters that Tehran wants to charge
00:02:05ships between 5 and 7%
00:02:07of the value
00:02:08of their cargo. Oman is discussing lower fee
00:02:11while Washington insists there should be no tolls at all. The
00:02:15details surface just days after President Donald Trump warned
00:02:19Iran it could face the biggest military attack since the second
00:02:23world war, but he backed away, saying diplomacy deserved
00:02:27a chance. However, Tehran denies any direct. negotiations with
00:02:31Washington, insisting its talks are only with
00:02:34of Oman, so could the US, Gulf states and the wider international
00:02:38community accept a deal that gives Iran greater
00:02:41control over one
00:02:42of the world's most important shipping lanes, and what would that mean for the
00:02:46balance of power in the region? For more,
00:02:51of a joining me now from Muscat is Abdullah Babut, he is a professor of golf studies and
00:02:55chair
00:02:55of the state of Qatar for
00:02:57of Islamic area studies at Wasedda University. from
00:03:01of London, Neil Quillium, associate fellow at Middle East and North
00:03:04Africa program of Chatham House, and from Ankara
00:03:08Betul Akkash and assistant professor at Ankara
00:03:11University. Thank you all for joining me. Now after weeks of
00:03:15negotiations, we're finally seeing
00:03:19reports that Iran and Oman have
00:03:23agreed on the coordinates of a proposed shipping
00:03:26route, that alone won't be enough to... open the straight
00:03:30of homose, but abdullah, what do we know about
00:03:34these details so far?
00:03:38thank you Zainab and thank you Tarte for the kind
00:03:42invitation. um,
00:03:45what, what we haven't heard is the
00:03:48official agreement or the news that has come out, at
00:03:52least for me, I haven't heard it, but there has been
00:03:56some announcement, especially from the Iranian side. that
00:04:00they were close to an agreement from my
00:04:04understanding is
00:04:06that the negotiations have been taking
00:04:10place now for some time, oman has
00:04:14of rejected outright anything, any
00:04:18Iranian
00:04:20of proposal that will contradict with
00:04:21of international law, and any
00:04:24arrangement that needs to be done
00:04:28for the... safeguard of
00:04:31shipping and freedom of shipping in state of horm has to be
00:04:35within the international law where oman is
00:04:38a signatory to, so I think the Iranians are
00:04:42coming to that idea now and they
00:04:46understand the omani position and therefore they are trying to
00:04:50find the midway
00:04:52solution while keeping within the
00:04:56international law, but also '
00:05:00trying to ensure that the straight
00:05:03stays open for international navigation,
00:05:07safe as
00:05:08of well and also protected from
00:05:13you in terms of environment or in terms of accidents and so on, and
00:05:17there has been a talk of some kind of a
00:05:20management organization to do so between Iran
00:05:24and Oman, and I believe Oman is putting
00:05:28the idea or suggesting the idea that this arrangement
00:05:32should be inclusive of all the Gulf
00:05:36states as well, so I think this
00:05:39is more or less what is going to happen then Meanwhile there is going
00:05:43to be there is a talk about
00:05:47opening one line as it
00:05:50were in the middle between the Omani course and the
00:05:54Iranian course for international
00:05:57shipping where Iran can monitor
00:06:01ships that enter and Oman can and
00:06:05Iran can monitor ships that exit the
00:06:08gulf. This is understood to certain extent because Iran
00:06:12is... very suspicious of
00:06:14any us Israeli
00:06:17attacks in the
00:06:21future and I believe this is going to be just a
00:06:24temporary measure that could be a
00:06:28building block towards a more lasting
00:06:32agreement and it will help implement the
00:06:36memorandum of understanding that was signed between the United States
00:06:39and Iran. so I I think
00:06:43this is what is what what I can read from
00:06:47that, so yes, this is being presented as a
00:06:50temporary arrangement, but Neil, what
00:06:54would determine whether Iran's
00:06:57role is stays temporary or whether
00:07:01it becomes a permanent feature to the
00:07:04straight? I mean, I think it really
00:07:08depends on the the movement of vessels
00:07:11and I think... depends on both the omanis and the
00:07:15Iranians being satisfied that th those vessels
00:07:18are both monitored by by both countries and the
00:07:22their transit through homose is
00:07:25is is understood by both. I think I mean I
00:07:29think that that's a key thing. We have seen obviously the
00:07:33US and Iran come to the agreement on the with the memorandum of
00:07:37understanding. Um, but there were details in
00:07:40there that that were unclear. "and obviously the Iranians
00:07:44felt that they still wanted to retain
00:07:48sovereignty or not sovereignty but control over the vessels
00:07:52coming in in and out of hormos, so
00:07:56that that was not the case for them, that's what that's why they started targeting
00:07:59ships that were passing through the omani channel, so so there
00:08:03very much has to be a sort of buy in from from both
00:08:07parties and the Iranians have to feel that they can sort
00:08:11of exercise that" that that degree of influence that they want to continue
00:08:15to have over homobus, precisely as Abdullah said,
00:08:19because there is such a low level of trust primarily
00:08:22between the Iranians and and the Americans, so so so that
00:08:26level of comfort has to still be there, but but let's make no bones, I
00:08:30mean Iran does not want to seed
00:08:33Homus, it wants to retain as
00:08:36much influence control over it as it can,
00:08:40now in the short term and even over the longer
00:08:43term, yes, so bet, where does this
00:08:46leave uh, golf states, because they urgently
00:08:50want shipping to turn back to normal, but on the other other
00:08:54hand, Iran's role on the straight is
00:08:57expanding, so would they accept a deal that heavily favors
00:09:01Iran? um,
00:09:05these tradeoffs actually villed for the both parties,
00:09:08as Abdullah Babut mentioned earlier, Iran
00:09:12also has to recheck its calculations for the state of
00:09:16hermus, they have to sort of reach
00:09:19deal which includes gulf partners, arabian gulf
00:09:23partners, because if they would like to have sovereinity or
00:09:27power over the state of hermus, this has to be done with the
00:09:31both parties the or the hermus,
00:09:35so this is a tradeoff for
00:09:38Iran and for Arabian gulf countries, so there is a shared
00:09:42interest when it comes to transferring energy sources, but
00:09:46other all sort of other shipments. um, for the
00:09:49golf um, there is not much options unfortunately at the
00:09:53moment, they have done a lot
00:09:56collectively so far, it because
00:09:59the this was something they have been following up for the years, the
00:10:03closure of straight of hermus is not something new for them, they actually had
00:10:07lot of plans on that, they planned it in advance, they had
00:10:10collective um forces under the peninsula shield
00:10:14forces, they have individual navies to handle any sort of threats
00:10:18in in the state of hermus, but obviously this was none these were
00:10:22enough, even including the us of internet.
00:10:25national organizations, international law, us
00:10:28navy, none of this actually helped enough, so still we have this
00:10:32issues in the state of hermus, so either they will accept the
00:10:36fact that the entire the policy
00:10:40of state of hermus will be at the end of Iranian sort of
00:10:44insecurity, because they will decide on when to open, when to
00:10:47close, or they will share the power on that,
00:10:51unfortunately there is not much from the gulf side now,
00:10:56to propose more on Iranian option, but
00:11:00as you mentioned, I believe this could be a short-term solution,
00:11:04once the threat perceptions have been, because now it's evolving, there are
00:11:07still negotiations between the parties, once these
00:11:11current and very, very serious insecurity post from Israel
00:11:15and US on Iran reach a sort of
00:11:19medium level or where when there there are more political
00:11:23options to talk, this policy... might be might be changing, but
00:11:27now there's not much option for the Gulf countries, they could
00:11:30negotiate and they could talk with Iranians to reach level which can
00:11:34actually satisfy somehow both parties, but this is the only
00:11:38option obviously, otherwise there will be insecurity regime in the
00:11:42state of hermus, yes, and when it comes to the US,
00:11:46as much as it wants the straight to reopen, it's
00:11:50also insisting a unrestricted toll
00:11:54free. passage through the straight and Iran
00:11:57wants the US blockade its ports to be
00:12:01lifted, so up tolah, where might oman find
00:12:05room for
00:12:06compromise?
00:12:10first of all, I'd like to echo what my colleagues have
00:12:14said, both Neil and
00:12:16Vitol, agree with what they have
00:12:20mentioned that Iran has seen this sees this
00:12:24as and it's not gonna easily
00:12:27just let it go, and it's
00:12:31and it's policies are creating a
00:12:35problem for the gulf states as well as for the
00:12:38international
00:12:42navigation and trade and oil
00:12:45markets and I i believe
00:12:48that you know the Gulf states also feel that they have become a
00:12:52hostage to this crisis. It's not something that they
00:12:56have - wanted
00:12:59and it was imposed upon them and they are bearing
00:13:03the high cost for this crisis.
00:13:07Oman obviously shares the straight of
00:13:10hormos with Iran
00:13:14and but Oman is signitary
00:13:18to the Uniclos, the United
00:13:20Nation agreement
00:13:24on maritime, while Iran is not,
00:13:28and Oman will not do anything that will
00:13:31zabadize the international law,
00:13:35and also has to take into consideration the interest of
00:13:39all the neighboring countries, not only Iran but
00:13:43also the other gulf states
00:13:46include the GCC and also
00:13:49Iraq, Iran has been pushing
00:13:52for tall.
00:13:55charging
00:13:56toll for
00:14:00in for for safe as
00:14:04it were navigation in the water and Oman has refused
00:14:07that completely and they told the Iranians we cannot accept this because
00:14:11this goes through against international law. what oman
00:14:15has proposed is from
00:14:18what i understand or is or is proposing
00:14:22is that there could be some kind of collective
00:14:25arrangement whereby services can be
00:14:29provided to shipping and
00:14:33maritime and to ensure safety, to ensure
00:14:37rescue, to ensure you know looking
00:14:40after the health, but more importantly for the
00:14:44environment and and of
00:14:47course the the dissalination that the
00:14:51Gulf states rely on, yeah.
00:14:55and a political agreement will not
00:14:58automatically bring commercial vessels back,
00:15:01so Neil, what type of security assurance
00:15:05do uh shipping companies need before
00:15:09they can go back to use this new
00:15:12route? yeah, that's a it's a very good and it's a very important
00:15:15question, I think I mean I think it would take quite a long time,
00:15:19we would we would see vessels um from the gulf states for
00:15:23example passing through, we've already... seen an increase in emirati
00:15:27vessels passing through, so so I think the gulf states
00:15:29themselves would need to be chartering, would need to be using their own
00:15:33vessels you to pass through the straight and and it would be...
00:15:38almost sort of seen as a a confidence building measure,
00:15:42so if if that happens
00:15:44you know comfortably for for a couple of weeks that will indeed sort
00:15:47of reassure some of those commercial vessels, but
00:15:51but I think as Abdullah has said, this this initially would be a
00:15:55short-term um kind of solution, but then that that that
00:15:59would need to be building block to to the US and
00:16:02Iran getting back to the mou, you to
00:16:05utilizing that. and then putting some kind of security guarantees
00:16:09and and and a framework around that
00:16:13longer term and and again i like Abdullah's sort
00:16:16of um connection
00:16:20to you to to the to the coal and steel union of of of
00:16:24Europe um the golf states and Iran could could
00:16:28certainly build around that and utilize that but there would need
00:16:32to be guarantees put in place from the US that the US
00:16:36would not therefore continue to strike against
00:16:40Iran, and likewise there would need to be guarantees from Israel
00:16:44that it would not um strike Iran, so
00:16:46that there are a lot of moving pieces that, but I think the Gulf states
00:16:50themselves can be can actually sort of demonstrate
00:16:53the, the safety of Homus once once it does
00:16:57open, so let's say uh
00:17:00Washington ultimately accepts a larger
00:17:04Iranian role in hermus. to secure an
00:17:08agreement, what would that mean for golf
00:17:11confidence in the US
00:17:14as the US is their main security
00:17:16partner? as it
00:17:20is actually mentioned, this is very complex and having very
00:17:24different opinions from different gulf countries with their
00:17:28alliances with us and and their negotiations with
00:17:32Iran, but basically we can actually have two main
00:17:36um approaches in the... discussions across the gulf countries when it comes to
00:17:39your question, the first one, okay, US is the main
00:17:43security ally, but we have seen diversification
00:17:47of military support for the gulf
00:17:50countries, imarati is agreed with Israel is, turkey,
00:17:54turkey has military support to different gulf countries, we
00:17:58have French, Italian, German involvement, we have China, Russia, so
00:18:01gulf countries have been actually trying
00:18:04to upgrade their security.
00:18:08keeping us as the main alive, but having more options in terms
00:18:12their security and defense policies. um,
00:18:16when it comes to security of state of hermus and bringing
00:18:19Iran with deal to sharing power
00:18:23in in the state of hermus, obviously there will
00:18:26be different lobbying
00:18:30process with US, this will either
00:18:33provide certain challenges to the gulf countries.
00:18:37is that they have to actually um
00:18:41provide story and understanding why they actually
00:18:45have this with Iran to us, but I don't think this is dominant
00:18:49understanding in the gulf countries because all these gulf capitals they
00:18:53have been trying to re
00:18:56rechannel their power in the region
00:19:00since the post February
00:19:0228 attacks, they are trying
00:19:06to indicate... that they are actually very critical vital power
00:19:10houses of middle east, okay, they are allies of us, but this
00:19:14doesn't mean that they will have more organic or regional
00:19:17power cooperations or negotiations bringing other middle
00:19:21eastern actors,
00:19:23as they have done with regional four or with um
00:19:26sideline talks with Iran, so they are trying to
00:19:29indicate the like their policy to the US
00:19:33that they are trying from their side to reach
00:19:36level of long-term solution and
00:19:40peace processes individually and collectively
00:19:44in the Gulf while keeping US as a supportive
00:19:48power to that. Okay, so Abdullah, from the perspective
00:19:52the regional mediators, which side has
00:19:56greater pressure on them, is it Washington or Tehran when it comes ending the
00:20:00war? Well, the war started by
00:20:03Israel and the United States while negotiations.
00:20:07were still going and at that time oman
00:20:11was in the middle of this negotiations and according to what we've
00:20:15heard from the omani foreign minister in his public
00:20:19speeches is that they were much closer
00:20:22to an
00:20:23agreement
00:20:26and but unfortunately the attacks
00:20:30happened i believe Iran doesn't won the
00:20:34war - the war was started by the United
00:20:38States, and I think the pressure should be now on the United
00:20:41States to stop the war. Yes, we in the Gulf states,
00:20:45we have issues with Iran, number of issues, political
00:20:49security. etc. and we don't agree with some
00:20:53their policies, but these things can be sorted out through
00:20:56negotiations, through dialogue and we seen that there has been reproachment
00:21:00between Saudi Arabia and Iran
00:21:03and also other gulf states, so I
00:21:07think what we need now is to ensure that the United States stops
00:21:11it attacks on Iran because and put some pressure on
00:21:15that front and and bring
00:21:19Iran back. to where not only where it was, but also
00:21:22to bring it more into some kind of
00:21:26arrangement where it be plays a positive
00:21:29role in terms of security and development the
00:21:33region rather than destructive role that we
00:21:36have and people are accusing it of. i think Iran is
00:21:40ready to do so, I think their economy is suffering, I think their
00:21:44country has been devastated by the attacks and I think
00:21:48they... to be much
00:21:51more integrated into the region, so this
00:21:55could be a really good moment to bring Iran into that,
00:21:59so yeah, the pressure more
00:22:00in in the United States, but we also need to pressure Iran to be
00:22:04more cooperative
00:22:07within the within the region
00:22:10and and to work towards the stability and the
00:22:14security and the development the region, because we
00:22:18are collectively facing... some similar challenges, whether
00:22:22it is economic or political or security,
00:22:25environmental, etc. and we some
00:22:29the solutions to these challenges can only come
00:22:32through regional cooperation, and this involves all
00:22:36regional countries, including Iran, Turkey and
00:22:39other neighboring states as well, so I i
00:22:43think this war and this conflict and the
00:22:47costs that we have ' endured
00:22:51should give us now an opportunity to
00:22:54think differently and and and and
00:22:57to start relying on ourselves and start relying on
00:23:01collaboration and and not to import security
00:23:05but to have an indigenous security arrangement through
00:23:08collective dialogue and agreements with
00:23:12neighboring countries and that does
00:23:14not exclude
00:23:18you know working with the United States or other international
00:23:21powers as well, but I think first and foremost
00:23:25security has to come from within within the region and the
00:23:29United States has still can still continue to play an
00:23:33important role, but as been
00:23:36saying earlier, there has been a challenge to that
00:23:40because the changes that are happening anyway in
00:23:43the geopolitics and geoeconomics
00:23:47the world, yes and I want to... about one the
00:23:51latest developments, actually because Turkia, Saudi
00:23:54Arabia and Pakistan
00:23:56reportedly uh, they expected to
00:24:00sign defense agreement, so Neil, what
00:24:04does this reveal reveal about Turkia's role in the
00:24:07Gulf, in Gulf
00:24:08security? I think what it
00:24:12what, what it demonstrates is that the
00:24:16US, first off has been unable to really...
00:24:20you secure the states despite having this this long-term
00:24:23relationship and and deep relationship with the gulf states, and
00:24:27that a country such as Saudi Arabia is
00:24:30looking, it it can't replace the US, but but it's
00:24:34certainly looking to burden share if you like, for
00:24:37regional uh security, and
00:24:40it and it's looking to partners in the region, certainly
00:24:44Turkey and certainly Pakistan as it as it moves
00:24:48forward, um, I think as both... both my colleagues have you have alluded
00:24:51to the US started this war and
00:24:55in effect the Iranian response has been to um
00:24:59breach the security of all six gulf states in in
00:25:03varying forms and varying divisions. i think
00:25:06that um relations between Saudi Arabia and Turkey have certainly
00:25:10been warming over the past three or four years
00:25:14and I think the the idea that Turkey
00:25:17plays you know a more instrumental role in working with Saudi
00:25:21Arabia and working with Pakistan to to build out or to
00:25:25start to put in some building blocks, it's not an
00:25:29alliance, and
00:25:30it's it
00:25:31is called the Mecca joint defense agreement, I don't think it's an alliance as
00:25:34such, but these
00:25:35are the block building blocks of new regional
00:25:39security order, it doesn't preclude other other countries from
00:25:42coming into place, but but certainly we have seen Turkey
00:25:46playing much more sort of forward leaning role into. interregional
00:25:50security and there are clear, shared strategic
00:25:54interest between the three partners, all of which focus
00:25:58on Iran, certainly
00:26:02Israel. there's there's also the red
00:26:05sea, the horn of Africa, I mean so so there are there are there
00:26:08are a lot of shared interests in this in this sort
00:26:12of uh this grouping, this this new
00:26:15defense formation,
00:26:18yes, Neil, Abdullah, Bitul,
00:26:22unfortunately that's all the time we had, thank you all for joining
00:26:25me, and
00:26:29that's all for this edition of straight talk with me Zcha, if you've got... any comments,
00:26:33please share them with us on X at Streight TRT. Also, don't forget to
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00:26:41Until next time, take care and
00:26:42goodbye.
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00:29:59World.
00:30:16and talks with Oman, Iran's foreign minister says his country is
00:30:19very close to opening the straight of hormos. Hello and
00:30:23welcome to TRT World, live from Istanbul
00:30:26Amchi also on this program, united in
00:30:30their defense. Turkey, Saudi Arabia. and Pakistan sign
00:30:34new collective security pact. a
00:30:37Unicef report says Palestinian children in Gaza have born the brunt of
00:30:41Israeli attacks with one child killed daily since the
00:30:45ceasefire last year,
00:30:48and the risk for children in Sudan is also rising. A UN report
00:30:51warns at least 8 million children are suffering due to the civil
00:30:55war.