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00:00:06of of
00:00:17of Welcome back, you're watching TRT World, with me, Neil Harvey, and these are our
00:00:20headlights: three people, including two
00:00:23of children have been killed in
00:00:25of Saudiled of coalition air strikes in Yemen's Tais province, that's according to
00:00:29Hoothy Run. the strikes come as Saudi Arabia says it will respond
00:00:33a firmly to hoothy attacks that injured 13 civilians in three Saudi
00:00:36cities. The UN says fighting in Yemen is forced
00:00:40of 125,000 people from their homes since the start of
00:00:42September. At least 18,00 households
00:00:46or 125 thousand people have been displaced since the start
00:00:51of in of the month. The toll on civilians is increasing. Between September 1st and today our colleagues
00:00:55at the UN Human rights office have verified
00:00:57of 40 civilian casualties.
00:01:00of Iran's state media says a drone strike has hit two Iranian
00:01:04fishing boats along the straight of Horamus, leaving several people
00:01:07of missing, of
00:01:07in a separate incident, Iran's
00:01:13of of revolutionary guards as an oil tanker exploded and caught fire after hitting mines in the waterway. Ukraine
00:01:17a president Voladimir Zelensky says Kiev is ready to take steps towards
00:01:20deescalation, but only if Moscow also commits to halting
00:01:24attacks on
00:01:25of infrastructure. Earlier President Trump said that both sides have
00:01:28of agreed to a mutual... was on strikes against energy
00:01:32of sites, still Kiev smarr says a drone
00:01:34in a petrol station in the
00:01:36of Ukrainian capital early on Tuesday, injuring
00:01:38one
00:01:41of person. The United States Supreme Court has blocked President Trump's
00:01:45attempt to tighten mailing voting rules just weeks before
00:01:48November's mid-term elections. The White House wanted to block
00:01:52mail-in ballots from voters
00:01:54of not on
00:01:54of lists provided in avance to the US Postal service. The critics
00:01:58argue that the
00:01:59of president. the authority to rewrite election rules at the last
00:02:03of minute. also, Donald
00:02:06of Trump has lashed out against concerns over artificial intelligence, saying
00:02:10efforts to limit the technology are part of what he calls
00:02:13a sick conspiracy. his comments come after the leaders of three
00:02:17major tech companies called for the government to have greater oversight of
00:02:20AI
00:02:23of and former Columbia University student and pro Palestinian activist
00:02:27Mahmoud Khalil has filed a lawsuit to get... the
00:02:30a university, Khalil was arrested by immigration agents in March of
00:02:342025 after taking part in protests against
00:02:39of of Israel's of war on Gaza. He accuses Colombia of laying the ground work for the Trump administration to
00:02:43target him. There's your headlines. Do say where this is the news
00:02:47continues. Intuitive,
00:02:50inclusive, informative. From the remotest
00:02:54reaches to the teaming Metropolises. The world
00:02:58is one click away.
00:03:03of trtworld.com.
00:03:08of
00:03:10of
00:03:17in
00:03:20of Global of market slide a tech cell office surging
00:03:24oil prices cement fears of federal reserve rate
00:03:26in hike.
00:03:27of Toronto hosts the inaugural Canada. investment summit as
00:03:31business leaders target $1 trillion dollars in global investments
00:03:34and and gotte refinery IPO sparks a massive trading friendsy as
00:03:38investors pour in
00:03:39of 1.2 billion dollars on
00:03:41a opening of day. Hello, I'm side with the business news
00:03:44a here on TRT
00:03:44World.
00:03:53of of
00:03:54a of of
00:03:55of of of
00:04:00Global stock markets remain under
00:04:03of pressure as pullback from tech shares as to
00:04:05a concerns over tight energy supplies and the inflation outlook, while
00:04:09Asian markets extended their downward trajectory tracking Wall
00:04:13Street tech
00:04:14of pullback. Electronics in semiconductor names across Soul and Type bore
00:04:18the brunt
00:04:19of the selling, as traders aggressively sold risk
00:04:22of assets in favor of bonds. Well the weakness reflects growing AI safety
00:04:26fears and doubts over whether the
00:04:28in rapid spending on AI infrastructure. can
00:04:31of continue, well oil prices held near multi-month high with Brent
00:04:34Crude oil at around $107 a barrel after
00:04:38rising 3% on Monday. Disruptions linked to the shutdown
00:04:42of Saudi Arabia's east-west oil pipeline are keeping pressure on global
00:04:46supplies. Industry sources say stocks at the kingdom's
00:04:49of yanbu terminal could last just five to seven days,
00:04:53while repairs could take up to six weeks. Now
00:04:57investors are
00:04:58of turning their attention
00:04:59of to of Wednesday's. reserve meeting with hotter than expected US
00:05:03of a of inflation boosting expectations for rate hike. now markets are pricing in more than
00:05:0785% chance of a 25 basis point
00:05:10a increase. it would be the fed. first rate hike since
00:05:14mid-2023.
00:05:18Let's get more now on this with Tim Walture, he's a chief market analyst at
00:05:21KCM Trade, good to have you in the program this morning, so we're seeing
00:05:25pressure across tech, oil, bonds, so
00:05:29how concerned should investors be about this broader shift in market
00:05:32sentiment? good morning, nice to be with
00:05:36you. yes, lot of forces at play at the moment, hard to know where to look,
00:05:40but er it's really that combination of high oil. and high
00:05:43bond yields, that's a bit of red flag for risk assets such as
00:05:47stocks at the moment given what they say about the inflation out
00:05:51and by extension monetary policy and how that may impact growth a
00:05:55corporate and economic level moving forward, so not a lot of good news for
00:05:59stock markets right now, I think uh traders like to see a little bit
00:06:03of a pressure released in terms of that oil price and or bond yields to
00:06:06get some momentum back, so I guess lot will come down to this week
00:06:10- what message we get from the... reserve and whether they're leaning on the hawkish or
00:06:14dovish side as to whether stocks can regain their mojo again.
00:06:18okay, let's leave the fed rate for now. let's come to oil, you mentioned it, it's
00:06:22now at around $107 a barrel with the saudi pipeline
00:06:26disruption tightening supply, so how much further could
00:06:29prices spike if the outage does last several
00:06:32weeks? yes, if it keeps
00:06:36lasting several weeks and i think if you add in into the mix say further
00:06:39damage to the pump stations or other infrastructure. the golf
00:06:43then I think it could bring back into the uh the price range the levels we saw
00:06:47in April this year when Brent Crude was trading at $120 and
00:06:50just above so that is certainly a possibility uh in the near term
00:06:54depending on how long the uh that crucial you know east-west pipeline does
00:06:58remain offline for given that that was effectively saving grace for the
00:07:02market uh given the uh the traffic problems around the straight of Homou
00:07:06so if uh oil prices do keep rising we could see a bit of demand
00:07:10destruction come into play maybe limit price rise a little bit, but
00:07:13certainly oil really has nowhere to go other than up right now given all
00:07:17the bad news we're hearing in terms the infrastructure around the golf and add into the mix
00:07:21the uh russian oil refiner refineries which have been taken offline
00:07:25as well and that's uh pushing diesel prices to these record highs so yeah not a lot of good news on
00:07:29the uh oil price front at the moment yeah it's even not looking good there
00:07:33for um oil tim well let's come to markets then they're almost
00:07:37certain that the fed will hike rates on Wednesday so what signals will
00:07:41investors be looking for? 'if
00:07:45they do hike rates, they'll be looking to see whether it's a one-undone
00:07:48case
00:07:49or or whether they were more rate hikes to come in the pipeline, now yes market's
00:07:53very much expecting rate hike this month, a little bit
00:07:56unusual if it arrives uh because we did see core CPI last
00:08:00friday moved to its lowest level since 2021, so
00:08:04little bit unusual to be hiking rates uh when core inflation is moving
00:08:08lower and also to be hiking rates to address
00:08:11effectively'. byside shock due to those high old prices, but uh yeah, market
00:08:15very much expecting it, so that'll probably be what the fed takes into account. i think it'll be a pretty
00:08:19tight vote either way, maybe 7-5 potentially, not sure which
00:08:23way it'l go yet, but uh, yes, if the uh the federal reserve chairman,
00:08:26kevin walsh, if he does signal more hikes are to come, that could be
00:08:29a another down or four risk appetite moving forward, it's all sounding very
00:08:33positive, so tim tied all together for us then, if the fed does raise
00:08:37rates while oil prices remain elevated, which
00:08:41parts the global market? would be most
00:08:43vulnerable? yes, that's that's
00:08:46once again a bad combination for markets, so i think certainly that
00:08:50the uh sectors the market very sensitive to growth, they'll
00:08:54be the ones to put be put most under pressure, i think we could see a bit more of
00:08:57rotation uh out of some sectors which have performed well in the
00:09:01first half the year to maybe some the more overlooked parts the economy
00:09:05or defensive sectors such as uh healthcare and perhaps
00:09:09utilities
00:09:09now AI is obviously one to watch moving forward. um as to whether that will
00:09:13be impacted by high rates given I guess the speculation we got about capex
00:09:17on that sector moving forward right now, but uh yes if if
00:09:21the messaging from the fet is a maybe one hike to as insurance
00:09:25hike to address inflation then I think
00:09:27you know markets may see that
00:09:29as a positive and maybe look forward to maybe rate cuts in
00:09:312027. Okay Tim, on that very
00:09:35positive note that this morning, thank you for joining us on the
00:09:37program.
00:09:42Well, global investors have gathered in Toronto for the Canada
00:09:46Investment Summit. Prime Minister Mark Karne hopes event will draw $1 trillion
00:09:50dollars in investment and forge new business partnerships. Now, the government announced
00:09:54that investors are committing $1 billion dollars or more will gain priority
00:09:58access to federal tax rulings for major Canadian projects and driven
00:10:02by escalating trade tensions with United States of course. The high
00:10:06stakes even also highlights broader strategic moves such as eyeng a
00:10:10unique alliance with the European.
00:10:15Canada offers the world what the world needs, I think the world is in the
00:10:19process of rediscover in Canada, I think people get up in the morning
00:10:23now saying we're thinking. because if you look
00:10:26at today, we've attracted billions of dollars in people represent
00:10:30investment funds, look at major global trends,
00:10:33and that's why Canada comes out top as a partner
00:10:37of choice. meanwile,
00:10:40hundreds have rallied in downtown Toronto to protest against the
00:10:44summit, criticizing its focus on fossil fuels and the privatization of
00:10:48public assets, while Mark maintains strong public approval
00:10:52above 60% for standing up to the US. tariffs, his pivot
00:10:56towards resource industries has alienated some
00:10:59critics. mark carney is
00:11:03bringing 200 the
00:11:03over richest finance CEOs to Toronto. they're
00:11:07here wining and dining at the AGO right now,
00:11:11and what they're doing is really auctioning off our public
00:11:15infrastructure. we've seen the pitch deck that's been leaked to the
00:11:18public, on the table are pipelines, critical
00:11:22mine, mineral mines, AI. data centers, weapon
00:11:26manufacturers, but also highways, ports,
00:11:29potentially our airports, so this is the biggest investment
00:11:33summit that we've seen in
00:11:34Canada. okay, well joining us
00:11:38now from Kualalum is marot, Ruiz Estrada, and
00:11:42he's a professor of economics at the Vizja University, good
00:11:46to have you on the program, so the Canadian government hopes that this summit is
00:11:50going to bring in foreign investment, is the EU the
00:11:53answer? what
00:11:57i can see that this meeting is so much things behind
00:12:00and especially china, china have lot interest in Canada because
00:12:04they have lot natural resources and also is near to the American
00:12:08market. i think this people cannot see clearly
00:12:11the the picture because remember that just europe now with the
00:12:15European central bank increase interest rates, part of this
00:12:19mobility of investments, attract investment is to
00:12:22attract European investors, but Chinese
00:12:25investors that Canada have enough natural resources
00:12:29and cheap materials and
00:12:32also this next door to the American
00:12:35market. What I can see now is that we have
00:12:39inflation globally and then also United States
00:12:42reducing the FDI in Canada for
00:12:46the same reason we have about tarif and then
00:12:50logically now Canada is trying to bring FDI
00:12:54from China. in Europe simultaneously, this is the main
00:12:57idea, not only in infrastructure, also productive investments
00:13:01okay, your bet is China and not the EU,
00:13:05that well, let's
00:13:06come to the Canadian economy has experienced a capital flight crisis over
00:13:10the past decade, now of course you've got these US tariffs
00:13:14taking effect, how is all of this having an impact on the
00:13:17economy? of course Canada with
00:13:21this tarif is affected because the exports from Canada to United
00:13:25say dropping 35% that is affecting lot the the Canadian
00:13:28economy and also we start to see slowly kind
00:13:32of on employment in Canada because you know that
00:13:36industries depend on keep low cost production and
00:13:40then what you try what the problem now is when you have tarif you have
00:13:44inflation but at the same time companies reduce the exports
00:13:47and then um start to cut people in in different
00:13:51sectors but i can see very clear like Canada trying to to
00:13:55find the way how to survive and reduce the um
00:13:59dependency on united states economy and investor
00:14:02from okay well let's come to wooing investors
00:14:06then um what does Canada need to do to make their economy more
00:14:09attractive? well what i
00:14:13explain to you Canada is very beautiful country have lot of natural
00:14:17resources you have so much qualify
00:14:21human resources also human capital and i think
00:14:25are now trying to to reduce the dependency
00:14:28the American FDI logically, especially with this
00:14:32difference between governments and especially in this
00:14:36trade war they have between Canada and United States. I think Canada
00:14:40is going to take time to to to improve
00:14:44the economy again. Canada economy is not doing so well now,
00:14:48it's not bad, but it's no what they expect last
00:14:51time. I want to mention something, last time we have NAFTA North.
00:14:56america free trade are now this this model of trade and business is
00:14:59closed, now Canada was searching a more
00:15:03regional economic model that attract
00:15:06investors of FDI, foreign direct investment to Canada
00:15:10and reduce the dependency from United States and interact with new
00:15:14markets especially China, Chinese market that Chinese,
00:15:17China searching for big markets like Canada in also especially
00:15:21natural resources and remember Canada is very rich in natural resources.
00:15:26and this is the most important thing that my main point here is
00:15:30that Chinese investors come massively to
00:15:34Canada because is is profit.
00:15:38Well one thing I can also tell you is that Mark Kahni is also going to Brussels of the
00:15:42State the Union of uh Von delion so watch
00:15:46that space, but it's been a pleasure talk to you, thank you for joining us on
00:15:49the program, thank you so
00:15:51much.
00:15:55Leaders from Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland have jointly
00:15:59told the British government to prepare for a possible breakup the United
00:16:03Kingdom, meeting in Kardiff, they declared west minister.
00:16:07time is coming to an end, but the pact has no legal force and its leaders
00:16:11still face major question over whether they have enough public
00:16:15support. Paul Hawkins has the
00:16:16story. In
00:16:202014, it looked like Scotland was going to leave the
00:16:24UK, but it didn't. In response to the
00:16:27referendum question, should Scotland be an independent
00:16:31country, we're in favor
00:16:34of no. 12 years later, leaders the governing
00:16:38nationalist parties from left to right, Scotland, Wales and
00:16:42both Ireland and Northern Ireland, signing memorandum of
00:16:46understanding. There are first ministers in Scotland, Wales
00:16:50and Northern Ireland to believe that their countries should
00:16:54decide their own future. We will each individually be
00:16:57responsible for our own journeys. It was big
00:17:01onvision, light on details from the
00:17:05polls, from the direction of travel that people.
00:17:07more and more are absolutely getting persuaded, but the polls
00:17:11suggest otherwise: in Wales and Northern Ireland there's a clear majority who
00:17:15want to stay in the UK. In Scotland, slim
00:17:19majority want independence, and then there's the legal
00:17:22process. Scotland and Wales can demand vote, but under current law they
00:17:26cannot call one without Westminster's approval, but Northern Island is
00:17:30different. The UK's Northern Island secretary must call a border poll if or
00:17:34when the reunification vote appears likely. a win
00:17:38and it would also need a yes vote from the republic of ireland where two-thirds
00:17:42of people do support reunification, both countries are
00:17:46run by shin fain. Westminster does not and will never serve our
00:17:50people well. I think our common cause here is that we have the right to self
00:17:53determination. Over the weekend, he weighed in with his
00:17:57thoughts. Well, I don't want to cause any problems, but I will do
00:18:01you love to see it. It's going to happen
00:18:04eventually. it
00:18:07seems, the UK PM is a fan of devolution,
00:18:10but said independence and new referendums are off limits and
00:18:14off the table, and we will not accept or tolerate any
00:18:18British prime minister telling us that that right is off the
00:18:22table, on the contrary, the issues around self-determination
00:18:26for the Caltic nations, for all of us, is very much on the
00:18:30table, from the talk of Westminster's time coming to an end, this agreement
00:18:34doesn't set out how or when any of this would happen.
00:18:37"Scotland and Wales still need Westminster's consent. Northern Island does
00:18:41have legal route, but the polling has to be in
00:18:45unification's favor, and at the moment none the polls are
00:18:48consistently in the pro Independence Party's favor, and Andy Burnham
00:18:52knows that, so while this agreement may increase some political
00:18:56pressure, doesn't force him to act. Paul
00:18:59Hawkins, TRT World,
00:19:01London."
00:19:11and here's some more stories that we're following this hour. oil
00:19:15tanker rates a key Persian gulf to China route topped
00:19:19$1 million a day on Monday, record for the industry, the
00:19:23Iran war has left fewer ships willing to cross the straight of
00:19:26homeers tightening tanker supply and pushing cost higher even
00:19:30roots from the Gulf of Omana now costing
00:19:34$644,00 a day - strong
00:19:37demand from refiners is adding to the pressure as they keep buying
00:19:41crew to meet global fuel
00:19:43demand. the Panama Canal is cutting
00:19:47daily shipping traffic again as Elney threatens to reduce the
00:19:50waterway of water. well authorities will reduce
00:19:54daily passage to average of 29 a day to
00:19:58conserve supply the block system. the restriction hit a
00:20:02key artery handling 5% of global trade, which is already
00:20:06under heavy pressure from from rerooted maritime traffic, officials warn
00:20:10this year's weather pattern could be the strongest in four
00:20:12decades. The US has now
00:20:16imposed new sanctions on Russia's VTB bank
00:20:19accusing it of helping Iran move billions of dollars in frozen
00:20:23asset. Washington says the lender also expanded its presence in Iran
00:20:27and built ties with sanctioned Iranian banks (VTB) was already under
00:20:31US sanction since 2022, limiting its access to
00:20:34American financial systems.
00:20:38"Colombian lawmakers have approved record 206 billion dollar
00:20:42budget for 2027 despite growing fears over public debt, while the
00:20:46country's fiscal deficit could reach record 9.4%.
00:20:50percent due to the 16% spending expansion. officials say the extra
00:20:54funds will cover earthquake recovery and unpaid bills from the previous
00:20:57administration. government now planned to introduce new
00:21:01tax reforms to help rain in spending
00:21:05and Japan has recorded more than 100,000
00:21:09centurions for the first time in history with women making up to
00:21:1290% the total. that's nice to hear. experts say healthy
00:21:16diets, low obesity rates and universal healthcare are among.
00:21:20"the reasons people in Japan live so long, the government is now trying to
00:21:24extend healthy lifespans by three years as the population
00:21:27continues to
00:21:28age.
00:21:36Africa's biggest ever share sale has opened to investors
00:21:40in Lagos, with Dangotte refinery asking ordinary
00:21:44Nigerians to get behind fundraising drive. There are already signs of
00:21:47strong demand with more people expected to play. there are shares
00:21:51available. Hillary Ngoruk
00:21:53reports. We are making history today. The dangoter
00:21:57refinary IPO has opened for subscription on the Nigerian exchange,
00:22:01putting one of Africa's biggest industrial projects directly in the hands
00:22:05of public market investors. The offer is for
00:22:084.1 billion shares at 525 each,
00:22:12that's 40 cents, potentially raising about $1.6
00:22:16billion dollars. At that price, the refinery. is being
00:22:20valued at roughly $48 billion dollars, but at last week's
00:22:24signing ceremony, aliko Dangote said the IPO is
00:22:28about more than raising money to double its capacity, what we are trying to
00:22:32do is to make sure majority of all all these,
00:22:35my our drivers, our cooks,
00:22:38our you know servants, our
00:22:42managers, everybody, they will have an opportunity
00:22:45to have a stake in this refinery and
00:22:50of retail investors have flauded investment portals leading to the
00:22:54crash of no fewer than two investment apps. the
00:22:57Nigerian Exchange temporarily posted on X just hours after the
00:23:01IPO opened that about 400 thousand people had subscribed
00:23:05to billion dollars worth of equity. Even before the IPO
00:23:09opened for subscription, the Nigerian stock market witnessed beer
00:23:13run with investors pulling their money out of other
00:23:16equities waiting to put it in the IPO.
00:23:20before my messages could
00:23:22land uh in their
00:23:25destinations to some these clients, lot them had already
00:23:28peltering
00:23:29are started peltering our accounts with payments,
00:23:33you know, they are already dumping money paying you
00:23:37know to uh take part in the
00:23:41IPO. African market leaders were well represented at the
00:23:45IPO offer presentation showing how connected to the
00:23:48refinery they are. This is Africa's wealth
00:23:52and what I mean is that we as Africans
00:23:54we need to roll up our sleeves to make sure that we actually release the
00:23:57value
00:23:59that is African resources. Dangote has become
00:24:03a security anchor following the US war on
00:24:06Iran, presenting Africa and the rest the world with viable
00:24:10alternative to the Middle East. It filled gaps in western Europe
00:24:14and is currently negotiating long-term contracts with
00:24:17Ghana, Kenya and South Africa. but the big
00:24:21question for investors today is whether the offer price of
00:24:24525 naira, which is about 40 cents leaves enough
00:24:28room for the share to appreciate when it
00:24:31eventually trades on the NGX. some analysts have valued the
00:24:35refinery substantially higher. issuing house
00:24:39puts it equity value at about $57 billion dollars
00:24:43while another estimated about 61 billion. for
00:24:47the markets, the dangote IPO is therefore, not simply a test of
00:24:51African's appetite for shares, it is also a test of whether
00:24:55investors believe the refinery can sustain its
00:24:57extraordinary recent profitability and justify
00:25:01valuation of about $48 billion dollars.
00:25:05Hillary, Naruka, TRT World,
00:25:08Lagos. Well, let's
00:25:12get more in this now with Mhammad, he's an international finance and
00:25:15economics analyst who joined us from Lagos, Nigeria, good to have you in the
00:25:19program. so given that this retail demand was
00:25:23so high, it crashed major trading platforms on day one, now do you expect
00:25:27this IPO to close out, it's $1.63
00:25:31billion dollar target well before the October 13th deadline or
00:25:34not, that that's a no brainer,
00:25:38it will, it will do that, um,
00:25:41we we definitely expect that, we definitely expect over
00:25:44subscription of up to um, over subscription
00:25:48over 100%. we expect that and he is planning to
00:25:52absorve 30% the over subscription, so
00:25:56don't forget again he has done his IP, mean private placement
00:26:00for inet investors, so it's... stricting high net investors to just
00:26:0450,000 unit this time around so um
00:26:08it's mostly for retail investors like he said there and like you rightly
00:26:12pointed out some investment app be shot down
00:26:16yesterday they could um get the could not receive the kind of
00:26:19requests the they were getting so definitely i
00:26:23expect it to be grows mean over
00:26:26subscribe
00:26:27that that that's a no brinner okay so the targets on track then now
00:26:31alico don't got say announced plans to list a US exchange in the
00:26:35next three to four years, so is this facility structurally and
00:26:38financially ready to face Wall Street scrutiny, do you
00:26:40think? yes it is, um, he's building a
00:26:44global brown, don't forget that is the single largest single train refinery
00:26:48in the world, he's move his capacity from inception from
00:26:514000 barrel to 700 thousand barrel, he's moving
00:26:55in two years time, he wants it to be eating about 1.7 million barrel
00:26:59per day um in terms of his his distribution network,
00:27:03is the largest supply of aviation for to the United States at the moment, is the
00:27:07largest supply of refined petroleum product to African countries, so you have
00:27:11the market and I think you have the structure already, so I i don't think that
00:27:15would be um that will be issue, um, I think everything is on
00:27:19track to make it uh to make Dangout refiner a global
00:27:22player in the oil, especially in the refining business, okay, well
00:27:26let's come to profitability then, the refinery just reported a staggering
00:27:301.93 billion. profit for the first half of
00:27:342026, so what exactly drove this massive turnaround after back
00:27:38to back years of heavy losses?
00:27:42one um capacity increase like i said he started with the capacity
00:27:46about 400 thous bar, now is doing about 70000 barrel per
00:27:49day, so that also have that done that and also the price the
00:27:53rising price in terms of refined petroleum product because the crisis
00:27:57in um in the middle east and between Iran and the US the the
00:28:01closure the stream of... hormones that also have impacted it and also
00:28:05the large um network in terms of distribution
00:28:09network generated especially in west africa and also going to some
00:28:13African countries, i think that has been what is responsible when he started
00:28:16it was not getting enough crude also and
00:28:20then he had to increase his crude allocation from outside the show of
00:28:24Nigeria because Nigeria government were
00:28:26not able to give him enough good and when that location increased the barrier of
00:28:30refining also went up and those are rest responsible for those numbers that
00:28:34you have seen. okay, well, thank you so much for
00:28:38joining us on the program, great to have your thoughts,
00:28:41muktar mohammed, thank you for having
00:28:44me.
00:28:48the race to explore the moon is gathering pace and terke is stepping
00:28:52up its own lunar ambitions. now is preparing to send its first
00:28:56spacecraft to the moon where it will study the lunar surface,
00:28:59magnetic field and interactions with solar winds as well. is how water
00:29:03forms on the moon, now the spacecraft is designed to operate for at
00:29:07least three months with the mission potentially extending to 18 months
00:29:10and it has been sent tous for endurance testing ahead of a
00:29:14planned launch from the Kennedy space
00:29:16center. we
00:29:20are determined to make Turkia one the countries that benefits most from
00:29:24the scientific, technological and economic opportunities
00:29:28offered by space. today only eight countries have carried out.
00:30:51As a group of nations led by India, China and Russia met in New
00:30:55Delhi this weekend, Trump and the war in Iran was never far from the
00:30:58headlines, but what did this year's brick summit achieve? And can
00:31:02the block be viable counterweight to the west? I'm
00:31:06Hasem Seeker and this is today's
00:31:08newsmate.
00:31:25Our Bricks leaders met in New Delhi with wars, sanctions and
00:31:29tensions between the world's major powers testing the group's
00:31:32unity. With 11 members now representing almost half the
00:31:36world's population, Brick says it wants a greater voice for the
00:31:40global south and less dependence on western
00:31:43institutions in. and prime minister Narendra Modi says they
00:31:47must be rule shapers, not rule takers, but can this
00:31:51increasingly powerful and increasingly diverse block
00:31:54actually agree on what that new world should look like? here's a
00:31:58look: bricks was created to give
00:32:02emerging economies greater influence a global system
00:32:06dominated by western powers. 20 years
00:32:09later, it has 11 members, representing nearly half the world's
00:32:13population and around 40% of global
00:32:16GDP, but New Delhi was about more than
00:32:20showcasing the block's growing reach. This was its first
00:32:23summit since the war on Iran reshaped relations between some of its
00:32:27own members, bringing those divisions to the same table
00:32:31and raising difficult question: how much common ground
00:32:35survives when the crisis is inside the room? the
00:32:39broader ambition remains unchanged, leaders won a greater role for
00:32:43emerging economies in global.
00:33:15the conflict. In May, bricks foreign ministers failed
00:33:19to agree a joint statement atmit differences over the
00:33:22war. New Delhi brought the issue directly into the
00:33:25summit. Iranian president Peseskian met Abu Dhabi
00:33:29crown prince, Sheikh Khalid bin Muhammad bin Zaid and the
00:33:33highest level known face to face meeting between Iran and the UAE
00:33:37since the war began. Beyond that meeting, bricks still
00:33:41had to find a common position on how the war has been fought.
00:34:15It called for maximum restraint in the Middle East and raised concern over
00:34:19attacks on civilian infrastructure and nuclear
00:34:22facilities, but it did not name the US, Israel,
00:34:26Iran or the gulf states. Last year's breaks
00:34:29declaration had directly condemned US and Israeli attacks on
00:34:33Iran. This year, agreement came with much less
00:34:36specific language. On Palestine, Bricks was much more
00:34:40direct. It opposed the first displacement of
00:34:43Palestinians called. for an end to Israel's war in Gaza,
00:34:47demanded unhindered humanitarian access and backed full UN
00:34:50membership for Palestine. There was also agreement over
00:34:54economic pressure. The declaration criticized unilateral tariffs
00:34:58and opposed sanctions imposed without UN security council
00:35:02authorization. What is the message? The message is
00:35:05that we stand together,
00:35:09bricks countries, most the bricks countries do not accept the sanctions
00:35:13imposed by the west either of. on say Iran
00:35:16or on the on Russia, so they pursue a
00:35:20slightly different kind of policy and they also demand what you call multilateral
00:35:24reform, that push for reform has been at the heart of bricks from the
00:35:27start, giving emerging economies a greater site
00:35:31in institutions still dominated by established powers.
00:35:35two decades on, bricks has become too large to ignore and too
00:35:39diverse to move easily in one direction. New Delhi
00:35:42showed both sides of that equation. Its global influence
00:35:46is growing, but its collective power still depends on how
00:35:50far its members are willing to move
00:35:52together. We're joining me now to talk more
00:35:56about this from Moscow. We have founder and CEO of Bricks
00:36:00Plus, Analytics Yaroslav Lesovolik
00:36:04from Boston, director of Bricks Lab at the MIT
00:36:08Center for International Studies, Micheila Papa, and joining us
00:36:12from Washington, director the Quincy Institute's. global south
00:36:15program Sadang Shidore, good to have you all with us,
00:36:19um, so uh, Sadang, let me start with you then, what
00:36:23for you were the main takeaways of this brick
00:36:26summit? "the way I would say
00:36:30it is that bricks dodged the bullet
00:36:33because it's come under some stress over the last year and a
00:36:37half, ever since is expansion, we have
00:36:41seen some troubles rocking its boat, and most
00:36:44them have been coming from the security side of bricks, which of course is not the
00:36:48way bricks originally started for the most part, it
00:36:52started mainly as economic development oriented
00:36:56club." with some global order goals of
00:36:59course, but what has happened over time is that
00:37:02security matters have caught up with it, the world has changed,
00:37:06the world is at war in many ways today, in ways it wasn't
00:37:1015 years ago, and new members have
00:37:13arrived within bricks at about the same time,
00:37:17so the two factors have combined in ways that have stressed the organization,
00:37:21we have had some troubles issuing joint statements of
00:37:24late over this disputes
00:37:28between African members, also recently of
00:37:32course the war in the middle east with the UAE and
00:37:35Iran at log aheads and both them are new members, so there
00:37:39was some concern that there would be troubles in issuing the joint
00:37:43statement, but the leader's declaration was issued, so that
00:37:46was that was victory, the price for that victory though was
00:37:50that the relevant paragraph on the middle east war was very watered
00:37:53down, was probably the best that could have been achieved under this
00:37:57circumstances
00:37:58and i think bricks
00:38:02is essentially closed ranks
00:38:04and put a show the of
00:38:08unity, everybody that was expected to come or
00:38:12less came and so i think the the
00:38:15task now for bricks is really to kind of take a deep breath
00:38:19and work out some these
00:38:23issues that they should not from their perspective
00:38:27' paralyze the organization because there's a lot of work to do in
00:38:31terms the way they have achieved and they have set out lot of goals
00:38:35and they have achieved some goals, but there's
00:38:38a lot more to do,
00:38:40so it's really sort of looking within
00:38:44and figuring out how to make this
00:38:47expansion work in the coming years. all right, let's get
00:38:51Michela's take on on this and as well the
00:38:55the the point that was made there by Sarang. on the the final
00:38:58statement that was made that was kind of wated down as he and others have
00:39:02observed, when we look at that final statement, does it look like to
00:39:06you like some the issues were just kind of paper over and and you
00:39:09know not wanting to ruffle feathers at this
00:39:12point? this is a question of
00:39:16expectation, so for example when we think about India's
00:39:19chairships, India was the one that paved the way for the new development
00:39:23bank, which was the major success story for bricks as an
00:39:26institution where... each member contributed significant funding, so
00:39:30this situation of current summit is not one where you
00:39:34have like one huge legacy project or major
00:39:37announcement that there is cross border payments initiative up and
00:39:41running. what you have uh now is very many different
00:39:45initiatives, lot of added issues, so uh
00:39:49this shows not only that the countries manage
00:39:53to reach consensus, but also have belief in
00:39:56bricks to... keep adding issues to the bricks
00:39:59agenda. one thing that I would um
00:40:02emphasize is the effort to think about
00:40:06industrial development, to look at global value changes
00:40:10and action plan on that, and also growing momentum
00:40:14on WTO and actually support
00:40:17the new members in joining WTO,
00:40:21so these are some the high-level takeaways,
00:40:25but India had very difficult. situation and it was
00:40:28major accomplishment even to have an outcome,
00:40:32especially when we think about what happened during the foreign ministers
00:40:36meeting several months earlier and how difficult it was to
00:40:40reach any consensus.
00:40:42Yaroslavvolic, the point was made earlier there
00:40:46that bricks was initially set up as economic
00:40:50group, so with that in mind, can bricks be an alternative
00:40:54to to reshape the world order rather than -
00:41:00"I think it can, it needs to do lot
00:41:04more, certainly in spheres such as
00:41:07trade, I think Michaela has rightly pointed
00:41:11out that on on the trade side, we're starting to
00:41:15see more of momentum in terms the discussions within
00:41:18Bricks, but trade is precisely the area where Bricks
00:41:22is experiencing the most pressure, we've seen unprecedented
00:41:26pressure in terms." protectionism in terms the rhetoric um coming
00:41:30from the US visa v bricks and so there needs to be a more
00:41:34coordinated response obviously on the trade side coming
00:41:38from bricks um so there are some, there have been
00:41:42some discussions including
00:41:45a an extraordinary summit that is taken place
00:41:49um last year during Brazil's presidency that was
00:41:52dedicated to partly to trade issues, but
00:41:56there needs to be something more systemic, including probably
00:42:00something like a platform for bricks within the
00:42:04wto within the world trade organization, there needs
00:42:07to be um a more
00:42:10systemic dialogue and
00:42:13progression on key issues such as the payment
00:42:17system, we are seeing that
00:42:21the use of national currencies is certainly advancing and it
00:42:24share and total transactions is rising, but at the same
00:42:28time there is not yet a bricks payment
00:42:31system, and the final declaration did
00:42:34not clearly state that
00:42:38there are critical stones that have been achieved, it
00:42:42seems like there's still a need to forge consensus
00:42:46within bricks on some these key issues on the economic
00:42:49front and to advance at the expert level in terms
00:42:53the technicalities of how these platforms of
00:42:56cooperation will work. sareng, global
00:43:00headlines were always going to be a talking point at this
00:43:03summit, as they have been in summits in the past,
00:43:07and obviously not the least
00:43:09of which is the... us Iran war and when we see that
00:43:12Iran and the UAE who have been on opposite sides
00:43:16of this very dangerous regional
00:43:19confrontation, what do you make then the fact that Iran's
00:43:23president was meeting with the
00:43:26high-level uh UAE representative? what what
00:43:30what
00:43:30can we what can we get from that? yeah,
00:43:34I mean I think that that gets us into the middle east situation which is very complicated
00:43:38one and to be to be... be fair to bricks, it has very
00:43:42little leverage to resolve the
00:43:44issues, so the fact that the
00:43:48Iranian president came and the fact that the UAE sent a very
00:43:51senior figure in the government, is
00:43:55a positive sign, perhaps a little bit in terms of how they
00:43:59are interacting, but also perhaps more in terms
00:44:03the importance they give to
00:44:06this grouping that they have recently joined.
00:44:11"they felt it was necessary to be present a high level, it
00:44:14also reflects their relations with India, the
00:44:18UAE in particular has very close relations with India,
00:44:22Iran too has good relations with India, so the fact
00:44:26that New Delhi was the venue was in many
00:44:30ways a safe space for them to come and engage, and the more
00:44:34they engage obviously bilaterally and
00:44:36otherwise -
00:44:39the sl..." improved other chances for them understanding each other's position.
00:44:43obviously that war in the middle east is very complicated. there are many actors
00:44:46involved, it's not entirely in the hands these two countries, but i
00:44:50think bricks in a sense provided that space where
00:44:53everybody could come, and that's that's significant. a time when
00:44:57we have enormous fragmentation in the world, many
00:45:01states are talking at cross purposes, talking past each other,
00:45:05and it's really down to some these multilateralish fora
00:45:09to
00:45:10to create spaces for engagement and bricks, I think did that job in
00:45:13Delhi. Michela, people often look at the optics
00:45:17these things and and so when you see the the the
00:45:21the president of Iran uh meeting with all those other
00:45:25leaders, does the fact that this took place under the bricks
00:45:28umbrella tell us something more about what bricks is
00:45:32becoming, not not just economic group, but diplomatic
00:45:35space. I would actually
00:45:38emphasize India. china meeting as the major
00:45:42diplomatic meeting uh showing that bricks is diplomatic
00:45:46space because there was so many years past since a
00:45:50president she visited India and India and
00:45:54China had a militarized conflict several years
00:45:58ago so uh this shows that bricks brings countries
00:46:01together that are in dispute or have had challenges
00:46:05and very strong differences on certain aspects
00:46:08in in terms of Iran i would look at bricks more like
00:46:12um as area where practical
00:46:16cooperation needs to be possible, not necessarily that
00:46:19countries need to get along that well, so for example the
00:46:23way we look at Cuba and the United States in the United Nations,
00:46:27that's the same way we look at Iran being there with UAE in
00:46:31bricks, so almost like the mini UN model
00:46:35approach to to the platform, so if at the end
00:46:39the day they can't can find some areas of mutual
00:46:42gains, find some functional cooperation
00:46:46that that helps their their countries development, then that's a good
00:46:49outcome. Yarislav, we had... the the Indian
00:46:53prime minister Narendra Modi calling for for urgent
00:46:57reform for the global institutions such as
00:47:01the UN and the IMF, but did that mask
00:47:05some some deep divisions over how this should be achieved,
00:47:08because talk is one thing, but putting into action is is
00:47:12something entirely different. Well,
00:47:16I think on the reform of international institutions, with
00:47:20respect to the UN, there may be more. visions
00:47:23and obviously this is more
00:47:26of a political issue in terms of which heavyweights from the global
00:47:30south make it into the UN security council
00:47:34etc. so this is one issue and
00:47:37obviously um there are you
00:47:41know to some degree there's some competition
00:47:45amongst the developing economies and in that in
00:47:48that part the agenda but then with regards
00:47:52to issues such as WTO reform,
00:47:56such as the reform the IMF, I think there are less divisions,
00:48:00there's more unanimity with regard
00:48:03to the need for a more
00:48:06balanced distribution of voting rights
00:48:09within within the IMF,
00:48:13whereby the the lion share that the
00:48:17majority these voting shares are with the developed
00:48:21economies and certainly
00:48:23the current status quo in terms the distribution of votes does
00:48:26not reflect the dynamics
00:48:30in the global economy whereby the share of developing
00:48:34economies including the largest developing economies from
00:48:38bricks is rising, so on this front I
00:48:41think there's more unanimity, and with regard to the WTO, I
00:48:45think there is also the agreement that bricks
00:48:49economies are very much interested. in having
00:48:53a fully functional WTO with a
00:48:57proper dispute settlement body, which is not really fully
00:49:01operational at this stage,
00:49:04to to a significant degree, I would actually argue that with
00:49:08globalization slowing down and having
00:49:11experiencing setbacks in the developed world,
00:49:14bricks plus with a proper
00:49:18ambitious trade agenda could become a
00:49:21platform. for revitalized globalization
00:49:25effort and liberalization of markets, certainly we're
00:49:29seeing that economy such as China and
00:49:33even India are starting to become far more
00:49:37active and boosting south south trade and
00:49:40concluding regional and bilateral trade
00:49:44agreements. saran: can
00:49:48can bricks or should bricks challenge the west, because
00:49:51it is powerful group, it's 40%
00:49:55of the world, and or is it better of
00:49:59simply trying to calve out its own shere of
00:50:02influence? yeah, so let's take a
00:50:06step back and and and sort of see why bricks is
00:50:10even become so attractive and has taken off in recent
00:50:14years. there are two basic reasons for it, the first one is a
00:50:18sort of a a sense a static reason that the fact
00:50:21is that... over the last several years, we haven't seen the
00:50:25current global order deliver, especially for the global south a range
00:50:29of issues, the point was made about trade, and we are seeing
00:50:33actually retreat from open trade and the idea that trade
00:50:36integration can work with some qualifiers obviously, but
00:50:40is a way forward. we are, we haven't seen very much on
00:50:44climate from the the powers the day, and
00:50:48on many other fronts, so these sort of failures that have now multiplied over
00:50:52time, have made many states realize that
00:50:55alternative pathways, alternative clubs may
00:50:58be a place to to invest in, and
00:51:02the second reason, which is sort of somewhat different,
00:51:06perhaps also tied, is the fact that the
00:51:09US lead order is undergoing a shift, we are
00:51:13seeing a decline of unipolarity, it hasn't
00:51:17ended, but it certainly declined since the 90s, we are a
00:51:21different world from the 90s, it comes to the ability the United States
00:51:24to okay, persuade,
00:51:28attract countries and align with its agendas for
00:51:32the world order, so when you have a future
00:51:35that is is uncertain, because we nobody knows what's
00:51:39going to replace the shift, the US
00:51:43relative decline, we don't know what sort of order is going to come about in
00:51:4610, 15, 20 years, so this uncertainty
00:51:50drives a imperative to hedge and multialign
00:51:54even more, that's always been there in the global south by the way
00:51:58for decades, but this makes it even more urgent, and investing
00:52:02in bricks is again becomes attractive, so I don't... bricks as a
00:52:06coherent alliance of any kind, it will never never be one
00:52:09obviously, even economically, so there's no question of
00:52:13its spheres of influence and so forth, those concepts will not
00:52:17apply, but the really interesting question is whether bricks can
00:52:20really set up alternative
00:52:24institutions or complementary institutions, I would say even, because
00:52:28many the countries in bricks from the global south are actually not
00:52:31anti-western, they don't want to overthrow the... existing
00:52:35institutions, the existing institutions are not delivering for them, so they want to invest
00:52:39in alternatives as complements and the question
00:52:43is if these complementary pathways they have taken on such as the new
00:52:46development bank, but perhaps a payment system, perhaps
00:52:50something on trade, it's interesting how much the consensus is on trade, but there hasn't been a
00:52:54lot of action on trade, although the feelings are strong on
00:52:58defending the WTO, so they can do something on trade, they can do something on
00:53:02these other areas of developmental spaces. then wel
00:53:06start seeing a sort of a competition and in
00:53:10the ideal world it would be healthy competition with existing
00:53:14institutions that are legacies from the 50s or the 90s
00:53:17and wel all win in the end, so
00:53:21that's where at least the global south countries are
00:53:25sort of motivated by, obviously Russia and China have somewhat
00:53:29different goals, but there's enough common here, common
00:53:32agendas that all them can work together on some... these
00:53:35points.
00:53:36Michael Papa, do you see this as moment of opportunity for bricks
00:53:40given all the the volatility in the world right now,
00:53:44particularly with regard to um events in the middle east and the point that
00:53:48sarang made there earlier about how this
00:53:52US-led world order seems to be on the
00:53:54decline? I definitely see it as
00:53:58moment of opportunity, but I'm not seeing that bricks is actually
00:54:02optimizing the opportunities it has. example, one big
00:54:05item on the agenda was strategy for bricks economic
00:54:09partnership for 20 2030, and that
00:54:13has not been decided yet. then bricks
00:54:17grain exchange cooperation was supposed to
00:54:21actually facilitate food trade, and this this is in areas
00:54:25where um where bricks has major
00:54:28market power, so that has not been developed,
00:54:32and also the bricks... does not really know what
00:54:36it wants to do with so many issues, how to consolidate, there
00:54:40is a bit of a sense that there is some continuity and that there is
00:54:44awareness that there should be a continuity mechanism and and Troika, and
00:54:48this is now uh focus, but what I see is
00:54:52all this opportunity, but it's not really being
00:54:55implemented, and um one uh area
00:54:59where I see that bricks could make major difference is
00:55:03in uh new regulation. so right now we see
00:55:06artificial intelligence revolution and there is very little
00:55:10regulation on that and the future is changing very quickly, so
00:55:14what can not only how bricks can challenge the west,
00:55:18but what can bricks do to innovate and how to
00:55:22manage this human AI relationship in the future? all
00:55:26right, um, give what's probably going to be the last word, then to Yarislav, how
00:55:30do you see this playing out then uh as bricks
00:55:33goes forward given? the
00:55:35the the growing economic power that it has, how can it use that
00:55:39power? well, i
00:55:43think they will certainly do their
00:55:46best to further
00:55:50progress on key issues that are
00:55:54crucial for bricks members and the broader global south, this
00:55:58is issues related to trade, this
00:56:01is the optionality in terms of payment system.
00:56:05and the use of national currencies, I think there is
00:56:09also the the need to forge ahead
00:56:13with greater
00:56:14institutionalization, and
00:56:17certainly the some the mechanisms that are
00:56:21now being discussed including the continuity mechanism
00:56:25like troika that will be potentially
00:56:29significant contribution to greater efficiency
00:56:33of bricks in terms of its operations um
00:56:36and bricks will probably further expand as well, there was
00:56:40already a wave of expansion that we've
00:56:44witnessed, quite a significant one, currently we're
00:56:48on in in pause mode for some time, but then
00:56:52I think um clearly given the fact that there are quite
00:56:56a lot of emerging markets that want to become
00:57:00part the bricks core, there will be further pressure
00:57:04for the bricks to... further expand and accordingly the share of bricks
00:57:08in the global economy will continue to
00:57:11rise and that in turn will
00:57:14also further raise the ambition of... the
00:57:17block with respect to reforming um and changing the current
00:57:21status quo. all right, we'll have to leave it there. thanks very much
00:57:25to all three of you and thank you for watching. remember you can follow us
00:57:29on social media and be sure to subscribe to our YouTube channel. I'm
00:57:33Hazim Sea, we'll see you next
00:57:35time.
01:00:24watching the news hour live from Istanbul with me, Neil Harvey. Coming up in
01:00:28the next 60 minutes, the conflict in Yemen is
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01:00:35Houti's in Thais province, that's as the Iran back group pushes into
01:00:39government held areas. Riad wants military assistance from the
01:00:42United States, but reports claim that Washington is reluctant to offer anything
01:00:46beyond..." Intel, tensions are also high in the straight of Homus.
01:00:50Iran's media says that Tehran has downed an American
01:00:54drone. Iran's also accused the United States of targeting its
01:00:58fishing boats and the two countries, well they have conflicting accounts about what happened
01:01:02in attack on an oil tanker that tech giant anthropics.