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00:00:07of
00:00:20of wherever the big news stories happening we're get up
00:00:23to break it
00:00:25news first with breaking
00:00:29of news
00:00:43of
00:00:55of
00:01:06are the stories we're
00:01:07of tracking for you at this time, Nigeria to host Made
00:01:11in Global Investor Expor to showcase investment
00:01:14opportunities, RAMF says Nigeria spent
00:01:171.16 trillion nara on fuel subsidy
00:01:21in 2021, crude oil prices
00:01:25drop as investors way potential are her
00:01:29most deal. well that's a very good one uh critically but let's
00:01:32see uh markets now with our commodities market
00:01:36of first uh gold is still standing tall closing the week
00:01:40brilliant uh at
00:01:41$4,347.30 that's
00:01:45a pretty good uh for gold to end the week
00:01:48in with 1.11% in green
00:01:5047.70% positive in change while
00:01:54silver is $56.87 coper is
00:01:58$673.20 platnum is
00:02:00$1,759.11
00:02:04of silver is in red here uh negative 0.57
00:02:08and it's down 0.99 in percentage points while
00:02:11copper is positive 2.30 0.34
00:02:15percentage points in green platinum is
00:02:19of 32.62 that's positive and 1.89 in percentage
00:02:23points for corn with coco and cutton well a
00:02:27bit of dip in coco i've been so interested in this
00:02:30commodity, it traded above 600,
00:02:33yesterday
00:02:34we reported that so it's down to $5,582 for
00:02:38metric
00:02:38of turn uh at the moment while cutting is $83.45,
00:02:42which is $6,31.21, coin is
00:02:45$463.50, well with this flat uh
00:02:49corn is
00:02:51of 0.32% in green and positive 1.50 while kokor is
00:02:54down 5.12%, this is indeed significant and
00:02:580.35% in green
00:03:01forcing now Asian shares held their breath
00:03:05today ahead of
00:03:06of United States job data that could prove povotor for
00:03:10next month's interest rate decision by the federal reserves. MSCI's
00:03:14broadest index of Asian Pacific shares outside of Japan slipped
00:03:180.1% and was down 0.5% for the
00:03:21week. Now Japan's Nickel dropped 0.5%, although it
00:03:25was set for a weekly rise of 1.7% South
00:03:29Korea. is next and also fell 0.5%
00:03:33and was down 5.1% for the week for the seventh straight week
00:03:37of decline. the index had doubled in the first half
00:03:39of the year, swept up by demand for AI linked chip
00:03:43of stocks as China's CSR 300 rows 0.8%
00:03:47after data showed that China's export machine kept powring
00:03:51ahead to boost the economy. nasdaq features
00:03:55follows an instrop 0.1%. S&P 500
00:03:59features were... but European borses are set for lower
00:04:02open with pan
00:04:03of region stock features down
00:04:07in 0.2%entage points. well
00:04:10of crude oil prices extended gains today mean further concerns around the opening
00:04:14of the street of mose
00:04:15of as he ran working with a man suggested burning vessels
00:04:18deemed hostile from the street and heavily
00:04:22finding those uh which violated the proposed
00:04:26rules.
00:04:27of united states west texas intermediate crude r.
00:04:30of
00:04:3275.44 uh with an upward margin of
00:04:38of 0.29 percentage points, brent is selling for
00:04:40$79.76 for a barrel, it's
00:04:44also in green
00:04:46a 0.39% points, indian basket is
00:04:48$83.83
00:04:51of uh in negative 1.60 percentage points. for the OPEC
00:04:55basket, dealers offer
00:04:57$77.34 sents for a barrel
00:05:01with a downward review of 3.83
00:05:05percentage
00:05:05points. now
00:05:09Nigeria's manufacturing sector is
00:05:11of showing. new signs of optimism with business confidence
00:05:15climbing to its highest level in more than two years, but the big
00:05:19question is whether confidence can overcome the tough realities facing
00:05:23manufacturers. the manufacturers association of Nigeria says it
00:05:27CEO's confidence index rose to 52.1
00:05:30in the second quarter, moving above the 50 point mark that
00:05:34signals expected economic expansion. industry leaders say
00:05:38recent tax reforms, the Najin industrial policy and the nagen first...
00:05:42initiative are given businesses fresh hope for the future, but despite
00:05:46the positive outlook manufacturers say the operating environment remains
00:05:50difficult, high interest rates, foreign exchange challenges,
00:05:54unreliable power supply and rising production costs continue to
00:05:57slow outputs and limit investment. analys also argued that
00:06:01affordable financing, stable electricity, improve
00:06:05infrastructure and stronger support for locally made goods would
00:06:08determine whether today's confidence translates to
00:06:12sustainable growth, jobs and higher industrial productivity.
00:06:16my first guest today is the CEO the center for the
00:06:20promotion of private enterprises. Dr. Muda Yusuf, he
00:06:24joins me virtually for this conversation. Dr. Yusuf, good afternoon and
00:06:28thank you for joining us on business Nigeria
00:06:37manufacturing confidence has reached its highest level in two
00:06:41years, that's according to the report. we see now, in your
00:06:44understanding, what key economic fundamentals are driving
00:06:48this renewed optimism and now sustainable is this
00:06:51trend?
00:06:54well uh, from the report, I think the
00:06:58manufacturers themselves uh, who are
00:07:01the authors of this confidence
00:07:05index uh report,
00:07:07identified number of
00:07:10things, first, they identify the
00:07:14Nigerian force policy uh which you
00:07:18know uh points in the direction of
00:07:21better procurement policy to support the
00:07:24manufacturers, that means that at least from the
00:07:28federal government and possibly from the states and they expect
00:07:32to see lot more patronage based on the Nigerian
00:07:36first policy and that perhaps informed the fact
00:07:40that the auto assembly... plants uh came
00:07:43top you know in the confidence uh rating that
00:07:47was reported uh in that report then there
00:07:51is also the expectation that the tax reform will have some
00:07:55positive impact you know on manufacturing
00:07:58outcomes are going forward so that was also major
00:08:02driver the confidence and of course they also reference the
00:08:06Nigerian industrial policy as also
00:08:09factor that has also even that
00:08:13level of confidence, so those are the major
00:08:16issues that are the confidence
00:08:20performance was abscribed to, but from my
00:08:24own point of view, i think this is generally
00:08:26about the general improvement in the
00:08:29macroeconomic environment, which has been driving
00:08:33lot of confidence both among
00:08:37domestic investors and among foreign investors
00:08:40and that's a lot more. now
00:08:43uh, of course, as the manufacturers also reported,
00:08:47of course there are still challenges, then
00:08:50secondly, this is for
00:08:53q2, q1 generally compared to q2,
00:08:57the first quarter is normally very slow in terms of economic
00:09:01activities, the momentum is always very
00:09:04slow, so that again could be factor where we have
00:09:08this significant difference between
00:09:11the... confidence level in Q1 and the confidence level in
00:09:15Q2, the momentum of economic activities generally is
00:09:19much higher, you in the second quarter the year, this is
00:09:23couple with the fact that we have seen quite a number of
00:09:26consistency and with respect to some key macro
00:09:30variables, but of course the second quarter
00:09:33also came with challenges, particularly the energy
00:09:37prices, which is one the issues also rais in the
00:09:40report. many
00:09:44CEOs appear to be placing significant confidence in
00:09:48government's recent economic and monetary policy reforms
00:09:52and I would ask again that which specific of
00:09:56of this policies are having the greatest impact on manufacturers
00:09:59and are these reform translated into real improvements on
00:10:03the factory floor?
00:10:07well uh generally you know when we talk about
00:10:10macroeconomic stability, It's about the
00:10:14totality of what is happening in the economy at the macro
00:10:17level, because you need the macro,
00:10:21innovables to be able to support or...
00:10:25variables to be able to support investment and ultimately
00:10:29to be able to create jobs and improve the welfare the
00:10:32people, so by way of sequencing of policy and by
00:10:36way of prioritization of policy, we have seen you
00:10:40know significant level of recovery with
00:10:43respect to the GDP growth for instance, and the
00:10:47GDP growth as at the first quarter was about
00:10:503.89, and I'm expecting that by the time we get the
00:10:54GDP. for the second quarter, you should be getting to
00:10:574%, which is significant when you compare with
00:11:01regional performance and global performance, that
00:11:04has a way of inspiring confidence, the exchange rate has been
00:11:08generally stable you know over the last one
00:11:12year, and the the stability has been sustained,
00:11:15even when we had some turbulence at the global
00:11:19level, because the level of reserves that we had,
00:11:23that turbulence did not translate. into major disruption
00:11:27in the economy, because the central bank is a much better
00:11:31position now to support the currency and ensure
00:11:34stability,
00:11:36so that also is is major factor, then we have
00:11:39seen a lot of you know -
00:11:43self-reliance, which meant that we have been depending
00:11:46less on import, on some
00:11:49critical you know - products, particularly
00:11:53petroleum products.
00:11:55because two, three, four years ago you w
00:11:59spending close to 10 billion to 15 billion dollars
00:12:03annually importing petroleum products, that story is
00:12:06changing already significantly, even though we see
00:12:10have few issues with importing petroleum
00:12:14products, but the fact that the dangoter refinary is now
00:12:17playing major role in terms of domestic refining is beginning to change the
00:12:21picture, it's beginning to change the narrative. so that
00:12:25is also translating into better trade balances, which
00:12:29is also good for the economy and for confidence. then
00:12:33even externally, all the ratings that you have been
00:12:37getting from you, SMP, standard and one and all
00:12:40of that has been positive in terms of looking
00:12:44at the economy and looking at how things are, then of course the
00:12:48stock market is also major indicator of how the economy is
00:12:51performing, and you can see the trajectory even in the... stock
00:12:55market, these are indication that things are doing, that is
00:12:59not to say that we don't have
00:13:01issues, because economic management and
00:13:05economic reform and
00:13:07you know getting reform to translate into concrete benefits
00:13:11and outcomes, it's also a journey, you have to fix the
00:13:15foundation before you begin to deal with the superstructure, so for
00:13:19me i think the structural issues which was also mentioned by
00:13:22the by in the manufacturers association. report also remains to be
00:13:26dealt with, they talk about issues of power, they talk
00:13:30about issues the high interest rates, which has become a
00:13:34major issue, even though the higher interest rate was designed
00:13:38to deal with problem of inflation, to attract foreign exchange
00:13:41inflows, but it also has a downsides, which is what the
00:13:45manufacturers are saying, which is why some of us feel that we need
00:13:49to do lot more you know to expand the
00:13:53development finance window. "we need to support them a lot
00:13:56more, we are
00:13:57not saying that the CBN should go as far as the former administration of CBN
00:14:01went in terms of intervention funds because there was a lot of
00:14:05abuse, but again we should not throw away the baby with the bat
00:14:08water, the CBI has to do lot more, in
00:14:12supporting development finance, because it's a major area of market
00:14:16failure as far as financial market is concerned, there are
00:14:20quite a number of critical sectors including manufacturing that cannot
00:14:24sustain their business. is at the current interest rates and apart
00:14:27from the interest rate, most the funds in the financial system, in
00:14:31the commercial banks are short-term funds which cannot support
00:14:35manufacturing, which cannot support the real economy, so these are
00:14:39gaps, these are market failure issues which require some level of
00:14:43intervention by the by the central bank, so my appeal is
00:14:47that the CBN should not walk away completely from this
00:14:50issue of intervention in the
00:14:53in in the financial markets and saying they should replicate what was done under
00:14:57the previous CBN uh dispensation, they can find
00:15:01tune it, they can do refine it, reform it, and so that you
00:15:05can have you decision or a framework to fill
00:15:08this these issues that has arrisen as result of market
00:15:12failure in the financial markets,
00:15:16but despite improving business sentiments, manufacturers continue to
00:15:20face, yeah we've identified some of it, high borrowing cost, inflation, energy
00:15:24prices, infrastructure. infrastructure deficits, but my next
00:15:28question would be, how do these factors affect the
00:15:31outlook for sustained growth in the entire sector? you
00:15:35touched on the issue of development? financing which is also key,
00:15:39but
00:15:39you know we've seen what's happened, for example, let's look at the anchor bora
00:15:43scheme and you know the level of refunds and all of that,
00:15:47so when you look at this, do you think the central bank will want to
00:15:50go back into this or what means or what way
00:15:53do you think that can be done and so transparently and uh
00:15:57that the bank can also be accountable for the funds, it's a two in
00:16:04uh, you know there is... no, no,
00:16:08no econom, no reform packa is
00:16:10perfect, we can always find
00:16:14tune whatever intervention methods we
00:16:17have uh, you know, to the credit the
00:16:21current you know development finance institution,
00:16:24particularly the bank of industry and the development
00:16:28bank of Nigeria, they have been managed
00:16:30professionally, even as bad as the situation
00:16:34was before 2023, when the... lot of
00:16:38abuse and in the area of intervention
00:16:41funds, the bank of industry and development
00:16:44bank who are being managed professionally, nobody ever
00:16:47accused them of mismanaging those
00:16:50intervention
00:16:52of funds that came through them, because you know at that time the central
00:16:55bank also created his own independent window of
00:16:59directly intervening,
00:17:01you know in the financial markets and giving loans and all of that, which was not their
00:17:05responsibility, exactly, so think it's a question of
00:17:09you know reforming the whole uh way
00:17:12of intervening uh using of course
00:17:16establish institutions that
00:17:18are that are being managed professionally, i'm talking now about the
00:17:22development finance institution, they have the structure, they have very sound
00:17:25management, you know we have seen very little loans, loan losses
00:17:29and power and all of that, of course those are those are things that
00:17:33require some heavy lifting on the fiscal side or...
00:17:37the economy, because the power sector reform is still
00:17:41still one the big issues that we are still struggling
00:17:45with, are the power issue is still a a big issue, logistics issue is still
00:17:49a big issue, insecurity is still a big issue, even though the
00:17:52government, you know, has been trying to move the needle one way or the other in
00:17:56all these areas. before i let you go, let's
00:18:00look ahead now, what key indicators should investors, policy makers
00:18:04and public watch over the next let's say six month as we move to an
00:18:08election year to determine whether this rising manufacturing
00:18:11confidence will translate into higher production, job creation and
00:18:15growth at the end the
00:18:16day. well, the key
00:18:20indicators are essentially
00:18:22the the macro indicators. our first is about
00:18:25whether the government will remain committed to
00:18:29sustain the reform
00:18:31trajectory to to be assured
00:18:35that as we as as. electoral and political
00:18:38activities gin momentum, it will not lead to
00:18:42you know serious distraction from economic
00:18:46governance, that assurance is extremely very important,
00:18:49because at least for many investors we are on the right course, of
00:18:53course we need to do some fine tuning to ensure that you
00:18:57know issues of productivity and issues of welfare,
00:19:01issues of affordability are equally addressed,
00:19:05that's major assurance that we need
00:19:09to get, and secondly is for the central bank to
00:19:13also look properly at how we can
00:19:17create financing window,
00:19:20you know, for the real sector the economy, financing window within
00:19:23a framework that will not be vulnerable to abuse,
00:19:27and for the central bank to also come to terms with the fact that
00:19:31we are dealing with a reality of market failure in the financial
00:19:35system and the theory. is that where there is market
00:19:38failure, there has to be intervention by government, and that is
00:19:42even more so a developing economy like
00:19:46ours, we cannot surrender everything to market forces,
00:19:50otherwise some critical sectors the economy will
00:19:54suffer, it is difficult for you to finance
00:19:57agriculture, to finance manufacturing, to finance real
00:20:01estate, to finance mining with an interest rate of
00:20:0430%, it cannot work, you can't those
00:20:08critical sectors with a
00:20:10uh funds that are just one year, two years turner, three years turner, you
00:20:14need long term funds, you need more concessionally
00:20:17financing, so those issues are critical, are from the
00:20:21from the monetary policy point of view, for us to ensure that we
00:20:25calibrate the policy environment to take account
00:20:29the peculiarities of this environment, i think those
00:20:33things are critical you know to to to sustain you know
00:20:37the... the tempo of economic recovery and
00:20:41progress as
00:20:42we as we go into into the second as you go
00:20:45into maybe the
00:20:46the third third quarter year. Dr. Muda
00:20:50Yusuf, CEO, Director, Center for the promotion of
00:20:54private
00:21:06has once again taken center staging shipping Africa's economic
00:21:09future as policy makers, business leaders and development uh
00:21:13partners gathered in Abuja for the seventh African emerging uh
00:21:17market forum hosted by the Central Bank of Niger. era in partnership
00:21:21with the emerging markets forum and the center for the study
00:21:25of economies of Africa. The even focused on one critical
00:21:28question: how can Africa's economy remain resilient and it growing
00:21:32global uncertainty? We have more in this special report. The
00:21:36emerging markets forum brings together government officials, central
00:21:40bankers, economists and private sector leaders to discuss
00:21:44practical solutions to the economic challenges facing developing
00:21:47nations, by hosting the forum. The Central Bank of
00:21:51Nigeria is position in the country as an active participant in
00:21:54global conversations on economic reforms, financial
00:21:58stability and sustainable development. The event
00:22:01also provides an opportunity for Nigeria to showcase ongoing
00:22:05reforms aimed at threatening the economy and attracting long-term
00:22:09investment. As we have seen, global trade and the trading
00:22:13system are resilient. Over the past year, the Central Bank has
00:22:16introduced a series of measures designed to stabilize the...
00:22:20macroeconomic environment. One of its primary objectives has
00:22:24been tackling inflation, which has remained one the biggest pressures on
00:22:28households and businesses. To contain rising
00:22:31prices, the monetary policy committee has repeatedly increased the
00:22:35monetary policy rates, tightening monetary conditions a bit to
00:22:39slow inflation and anchor inflation
00:22:41expectations.
00:22:44Geoeconomic considerations are causing
00:22:47countries to look inward. and to
00:22:51reorganize trade and critical supply
00:22:54chains around trusted partners
00:22:58and neighboring markets through
00:23:00nearshoring and friend
00:23:03sharing. for Africa,
00:23:07this change is both a warning and an
00:23:11opportunity. with inter-african
00:23:15trade still accounting for only about
00:23:1816%. of our total
00:23:21trade, we must build stronger
00:23:25regional value chains, produce more of
00:23:29what we consume and trade
00:23:33more with one another. the CBN has also pursued reforms in the
00:23:37foreign exchange market, efforts to improve
00:23:40transparency, enhance liquidity and encourage more
00:23:43efficient price discovery are intended to reduce exchange
00:23:47rates distortions and improve confidence. among investors and
00:23:51businesses that depend on foreign currency. another
00:23:55focus has been straightning the financial sector. the ongoing
00:23:58bank recapitalization program aims to ensure that Nigerian banks
00:24:02remain well capitalized, resilient and capable of supporting
00:24:06economic growth through increase the lending to critical
00:24:09sectors. beyond financial sector reforms, the
00:24:13central bank continues emphasize stronger regulation, improved
00:24:17risk management and enhanced payments. systems to support
00:24:21financial inclusion and a more efficient economy, revenue
00:24:25optimization, growth and fiscal
00:24:28discipline, within ministry of finance we're developing a
00:24:32DNA, DNA means d
00:24:35for diligent execution, whether it's
00:24:39policy, whether it's a mandate on spending, we
00:24:42would execute diligently, and is for
00:24:46national interest, we will place Nigeria's interest
00:24:50over and above are personal interests, sectional interests, regional
00:24:54interests, it to be Nigeria first, and
00:24:57Nigeria always, and a is for
00:25:01accountability, because we want to be accountable, one high
00:25:05potential sector is critical minerals, where the green transition
00:25:09is driving demand for lithium boxide, cobalt and
00:25:12other elements necessary to manufacture EV batteries and other low
00:25:16carbon goods. Africa holds an estimated 30% percent the
00:25:20world's known mineral reserves and estimates for Latin
00:25:24America are similar, for Africa in particular,
00:25:27instead the extract and export model that has been the source
00:25:31of so much volatility, economic underperformance, and let me be
00:25:35blunt, corruption, conflict and banditory, the goal should be
00:25:39higher value, higher productivity growth driven by the
00:25:42development of subregional value chains and integration into
00:25:46potential supply networks. Analys say host the
00:25:50emerging markets forum reinforces Nigeria's commitment to
00:25:53international engagement a time when global economic
00:25:57uncertainty remains high. The discussions could also provide
00:26:00insight into how other emerging economies and managing
00:26:04inflation, attracting investment, navigating external shocks
00:26:08and accelerating inclusive growth. for
00:26:11investors, international development partners and the broader
00:26:15business community, the forum offers an opportunity to
00:26:18assess Nigeria's reform trajectory and the policy direction the
00:26:22country's monetary authorities. there is a big advantage for
00:26:26AI in
00:26:30in the improvement the delivery. of services, I'm talking
00:26:34about essential services like medical care, like education, like legal
00:26:38and judicial care, like agricultural extension and so on. now
00:26:42these are bigger priorities in countries that are more agrarian, where you have
00:26:46many people who don't yet have these services and so on, so I'm describing
00:26:50developing country like Nigeria or like India, so actually the
00:26:54upside of AI technologies is also very, very great, but you
00:26:58have
00:26:58to be,
00:26:58you have to be careful to see where are the returns highest in this one?
00:27:02and what we find through our work is that the highest are not
00:27:06in frontline generative AI, the highest returns are
00:27:10actually in backend predictive AI. while challenges remain
00:27:14from inflationary pressures to exchange rates volatility and global
00:27:18economic headwinds. the central bank maintains that its policy
00:27:22measures are designed to lay the foundation for sustained macroeconomic
00:27:25stability and long-term economic growth. as
00:27:28deliberations continue, market participants will be watch.
00:27:32closely for new policy insights and partnerships that could
00:27:36further strengthen Nigeria's economic
00:27:38outlook. We're still to come on business
00:27:42Nigeria, we'll be understanding issues around the middle east peace
00:27:46talks, the implications for Nigeria's oil and gas
00:27:49industry. My next guest is the head natural resources,
00:27:53climate governance is with budget foundation, Mr.
00:27:56Enebi, join us after this break for that
00:28:00conversation, don't go away.
00:28:26All right, glad to have you back now, middle east peace talkks and fresh tensions a
00:28:29shipping global old prices with direct. sequences for's
00:28:33economy fe cours and