Google Speech-to-Text API Automatic Transcription (Chirp). Treat it as a searchable index of what was broadcast, not a quotation record.
00:00:00and partnerships that could further strengthen Nigeria's economic
00:00:03outlook. We're still to come on business
00:00:07Nigeria, we'll be understanding issues around the Middle East peace
00:00:11talks, the implications for Nigeria's oil and
00:00:14a gas industry. My next guest is the head natural resources,
00:00:18of climate governance is with Bogit Foundation, Mr.
00:00:21Enebi. Join us after this break
00:00:24of for that conversation, don't go
00:00:26away.
00:00:37in
00:00:51All right, glad to have you back now,
00:00:52in middle east peace talkks and fresh tensions are shaping global old prices
00:00:56with direct consequences for Niger's economy, few cost and revenue
00:01:00outlook, now as diplomatic efforts rise and fall between key
00:01:04players in the region, crude market continues to react to fears of
00:01:08supply disruption and
00:01:10of possible breakthroughs. at the center
00:01:11of the issues are concerns over strategic shipping roads like the state of
00:01:15amose and the red sea which are critical to global energy trade.
00:01:19any threat to these corridors can increase shipping cost, insurance premiums
00:01:23and create uncertainty across the oil market. for
00:01:26Nigeria's fluctuation in global crude oil prices present b. unities and
00:01:30challenges for the oil and gas sector, while higher prices may boost government
00:01:34all earnings, a decline triggered by peace deals could reduce
00:01:38expected revenues and after
00:01:40uh fis and affect fiscal planning. now the impact is also
00:01:44felt by consumers as Nigeria's reliance on imported petroleum
00:01:47products means global price movements can influence pump price
00:01:51locally, but with increased domestic refining
00:01:53of capacity and efforts to attract investment. experts say Nigeria has
00:01:57opportunity to strengthen its energy position, and reduce exposure
00:02:01to global shocks. my next guest is the head natural
00:02:04of resources and climate governance at budget
00:02:07foundation. it's been a while, it's good to
00:02:10see you. thanks for being on the program this friday, mr.
00:02:14of ok, good to
00:02:15of see you
00:02:15to to be away, thanks for having me, pleasure to be here. yeah,
00:02:19with renewed piece talks in the middle east, i want you to tell
00:02:23us how could the easing geopolitical
00:02:26of tension of affect global oil prices and what does that mean?
00:02:30for Nigeria's all revenues, foreign
00:02:32of exchange earnings and the 2026
00:02:34budget. All right, thank you very much. So in terms of
00:02:38how um geopolitical tensions, I think I think that car is b
00:02:41already uh
00:02:44in we already we know the connections between um the fact that a large portion of
00:02:47crued oil sales
00:02:50of traffic goes of through
00:02:53hormones the which
00:02:53straight you mentioned earlier your uh
00:02:55in introduction 30% of global of
00:02:59sea going. oil
00:03:02um 10% cool of global coil supply goes through that street and so and
00:03:06of then other commodities that use that street as well also affected so there's a whole rip
00:03:10effect of how
00:03:11of that conflict has affected economies across the country across the world
00:03:15including our country nigeria consequently
00:03:19crude oil price rises oil price rises um
00:03:23overall final price of refined petroleum like petrol
00:03:26diesel aviation f the r I'm sure the
00:03:30last four five months
00:03:31of have been a testament to how these prices have affected
00:03:35logistics, transportation, flight,
00:03:38tourism and production as well. In Nigeria, we've seen the
00:03:42dance before the war started, petrol was selling
00:03:46for slightly above 800 n per liter, and then at
00:03:50the peak
00:03:50of the conflict, it rose as high as
00:03:54a 1,30, even 350, depending on the part
00:03:56of the country you living, right now. It's it's
00:04:00so it has been a dance between that um window, I think since the world
00:04:04started has not gone below 1100 n per liter and
00:04:08so that translates into daily transportation,
00:04:12daily logistics cost and then cost of products, anything
00:04:16that's to move from one place to the other will
00:04:18rise, commuters transportation has risen by
00:04:2250% over this period um so I think
00:04:26Nigerians are not new to the impact of how...
00:04:30"the conflict in the middle east has affected their lives and it has
00:04:33contributed to some
00:04:35of the issues that we see uh today, I'm sure there are
00:04:39several reports that will be uh that will be
00:04:42produced after this and conflict after this conflict
00:04:46has ended in terms
00:04:47of the impact is has on socio economic and lives of people
00:04:51across the world, even in developing nations. with regard to how the
00:04:55peace talks have evolved uh, that has been another
00:04:59dance as well." um, we've seen, we
00:05:02currently there seems to be hope that
00:05:07of the war might end soon, but we've been at this point more
00:05:11many times than... we can count where we are the brink
00:05:14of deal or the brink of easing tensions or even easing tensions
00:05:18and then something happens one party pulls out both party
00:05:22pulls out we start striking each other and then everything
00:05:26deteriorates to where we are so at this moment
00:05:29for producers and businesses across the world are very cautious about
00:05:33pricing the the emerging trends or
00:05:37the current trends how what
00:05:41should so if you over price if you over price
00:05:45the um the benefits or the games you might be get caught so as of
00:05:49now i think oil has jumped jumped
00:05:5210% and 8% in the last couple of days uh
00:05:56but for now there seems to be hope there are talks between
00:06:00Iran and oman although the outcome is not fully
00:06:04certain people are hopeful Iran wants more control US
00:06:08has lot of demands oman is trying to bridge that gap there are issues whether
00:06:11US involved or he is not involved, there is lot of
00:06:15uncertainty right now, but I think right now everybody is being patient
00:06:19to be sure that the current talks are going to yield
00:06:22fruitful and lasting results that you cannot be confident to
00:06:26plan, plan business and plan uh economies and plan
00:06:30development. a good depth, must say into the
00:06:33issues. now if the peace process leads to increase all production say from the
00:06:37middle east uh producers could nigeria face sther competition
00:06:41in the global crude. market okay, so right
00:06:45now there are a lot of activities happening at the same time, it's
00:06:49quite, so supplies from russia are
00:06:52because Ukraine has had some successful attacks against
00:06:56Russian oil production, so the Russian production is a bit
00:07:00volatile right now, there's no, there's no sense as to what Russia can
00:07:04add to the current global supply of
00:07:07oil, the extent of what the peace talks will
00:07:11be determine how much traffic can go
00:07:14through
00:07:15and then determine how much can come out the middle east either
00:07:19way i think um it's it's it's we've seen how
00:07:23that has benefited nigeria we've seen where during the height the
00:07:27conflict the danguty refinery has ramped up
00:07:31production i think about last one or two months ago they were pressing
00:07:345% their capacity meaning they were pushing their cylinders
00:07:38at full throttle and so um
00:07:41obviously Africa and some other countries have become alternatives to supply the
00:07:45world with um what the world with
00:07:49precious um energy commodities now as
00:07:52to how that will affect Nigeria they have
00:07:56spot the are gains obviously direct games but how much we
00:08:00can make use of those games
00:08:04uh is quite uncertain and I think reports that will be
00:08:08released by the government will tell us lot better but if
00:08:11to based on what we've seen or what what has
00:08:14happened uh so uh obviously
00:08:18Nigeria's production has increased I think by about
00:08:22maybe over the last six months maybe 10%
00:08:25right last last the last report says we did them in
00:08:29terms of crude oil 15 1.55 million barrels per day if
00:08:33you add condenses over 1.7 million bar per day
00:08:37that's an increase from where we are two three months ago uh but you know all of that
00:08:41code does not be belong to the country, lot of it belongs to
00:08:45private producers, international oil companies and the indigenous oil companies
00:08:49and so based on the contracts we have joint ventures PS, there a
00:08:52share of code oil that goes to Nigeria and shame of
00:08:56cost oil or joint venture agreements, now based on that share
00:09:00of nigeria sp is where we can get direct good sales,
00:09:04previous administrations had already used a share of those crude
00:09:08oil as the oil back loans, so we have
00:09:12at least between between 130 to about 25000 barrels per
00:09:15day estimates, i'm not certain, but at least at least
00:09:1913500 barrels per day has been used as 125,
00:09:23us as the other loans i can't really see how
00:09:26much crude oil has been computed so because of
00:09:30that
00:09:31the are the are the crude oil available to the
00:09:35country to get as direct sales will be is affected let's just say
00:09:39if if you w to do a rule of term calculation just give say
00:09:4330 to 35% of total production is what comes to the country in terms of
00:09:47direct
00:09:47good oil access that we can sell and get direct s from and so we are a bit
00:09:51limited as to how we can maximize but however uh oil producers
00:09:55oil oil companies that are making additional sales we also pay
00:09:59their taxes per profit taxes and so we expect to get
00:10:02increased um revenue from those streams oil
00:10:06companies across the world are already reporting um good um
00:10:10numbers on their books so i think from those from the taxes
00:10:14we get from them we should get some goodses so yes for Nigeria is
00:10:18both is mixed bag we tend to get some gains to the the
00:10:21extent that we can maximize those gains is quite... I'm setting at the
00:10:25moment, beyond data, yeah, beyond global
00:10:29all prices, um, what for you, your thoughts are the biggest challenges
00:10:33currently facing Nas oil and gas industry uh, from crude oil
00:10:37production, pipeline security, you've talked about increase
00:10:41production, investment and refining capacity,
00:10:45uh, how do we balance all of this up moving forward,
00:10:48so I think one the things that um, the
00:10:52country has been trying to address is increased in. of
00:10:55confidence, i think the last two years has made
00:10:59some good results, um, the president
00:11:03has as you
00:11:04all well know have has um released some executive that has
00:11:07smootined a few things with oil
00:11:10investors um the are basically investor
00:11:14confidence and then that looks at our macroeconomic indicators looking at our
00:11:18interest rates for business and exchange rate exchange rates subsidy
00:11:22has removed so that in terms of market market. stabilization that has been
00:11:26dealthy, but exchange is also has been liberalized, so
00:11:30investors
00:11:30are not afraid to pull out their so, so for the
00:11:33upstream, we've been hearing reports that there's increasing
00:11:37confidence in investment since the subsidy was removed, we had
00:11:41additional investments in dowshing sector, at least in terms of distribution
00:11:45of oil and gas products, people are much more confident
00:11:48to sell um refined petroleum and not be
00:11:52on coffe by by exchange
00:11:55rate uh and then the biggest issue or
00:11:59the most sensitive issue be the exchange rate and i will give an
00:12:02example um just quite recently a couple of weeks ago the
00:12:06dangoter refinery said
00:12:08it was not going to supply um cloud in naira
00:12:11again and but that was quickly addressed
00:12:15by the federal government and you know that one the reasons
00:12:19our nara has had less pressure internationally is
00:12:23because we are no longer but so we're importing so
00:12:27much um so much um petrol, in fact
00:12:30if you look at the data from the nmdpra there are
00:12:34certain um i think for the month of March
00:12:38or April uh total domestic consumption was
00:12:41supplied by domestic refineries we did not import any any
00:12:45petrol and then if you look additional refinery
00:12:49supply i think there was a month think in may or
00:12:52so total um 'all
00:12:55the that was refined in Nigeria was supplied by from Nigerian
00:12:59producers and so I i think that exchange
00:13:03issue is something that we need to um watch carefully
00:13:07and because Dangoti said
00:13:08it was not going to supply a people jumped in to ensure
00:13:12that that doesn't happen because by the moment you do that you now
00:13:16are telling marketers to go search for their dollars and they
00:13:19come and pay for local products something that we are trying we trying to address and that would
00:13:23additional pressure on'.
00:13:25the ner that
00:13:25against balance the dollar will
00:13:26then be adjustable thankfully that was addressed quickly
00:13:30and the dangote refinery has began to sell again in
00:13:34nir to do that so that means that in terms of
00:13:37a nira for code um policies that has to be monitored
00:13:41carefully to ensure it doesn't fall apart and then our domestic code oil
00:13:45obligations supply obligations also needs to be efficient i think
00:13:49whatever button x might be happening within the system should be addressed
00:13:53and is careful but i think the exchange rate is something that we need to
00:13:57also watch carefully as the country and not just but for every other
00:14:01area part of manufacturing that has to import intermed products or
00:14:04inputs from from outside the country and import
00:14:08anything that relies on the exchange rate is going to affect
00:14:12the economy and so i think we need to do lot more the
00:14:16federal government is trying to do something the rate has been quite stable but it's
00:14:20still high compared to three years ago and that has not
00:14:24allowed the benefits of some of those reforms to trickle down to the
00:14:28micro-economic areas and that's why people are still and complaining that ah we
00:14:31say the country is doing about and i can't feel it i'm see paying
00:14:35high high prices for foods but so i think we need
00:14:39to see think cover reforms
00:14:42to ensure that it triggers down to the micro level households
00:14:45and need jobs we we have two minutes to wrap this
00:14:49segment up nigeria has been working to boost domestic refining
00:14:53through facilities you mentioned such
00:14:55as the dangote refinery and rehabilitation of state-owned refinery.
00:14:59now how are these developments shaping Nigeria's
00:15:02a energy landscape and moving forward, what impact could they
00:15:06have on fuel imports and energy security? well definitely
00:15:10energy security is really help, i think very
00:15:14practical situation is
00:15:15the current conflict between the US and Iran, if the dangote was refinary
00:15:19was not operational at this at this point, I
00:15:21think the the impact on the local economy. much much
00:15:25higher and couple with the fact we have a high exchange rate, so the fact
00:15:29that we have a operational refinery in Nigeria that
00:15:33can bridge that gap,
00:15:35it has has really helped to cusion. some of that that effect
00:15:38so yeah that
00:15:40are that's a practical um that's a practical example
00:15:44of how um having domestic refining can help or can
00:15:48support the economy and support the country domestically and shield us
00:15:52from some volatilities although we are not completely shield that is a
00:15:56completely another additional discussion for which may not have the time to
00:15:59cover but i think domestic refining has that
00:16:03capacity energy security has been showing in this last three to four
00:16:07months uh, I think um, we we
00:16:10refine - now exports refined petroleum as well,
00:16:14so a way Nigeria is now a net exporter of refined petroleum, even
00:16:18though it's not directly from the government, even though that's not a batting at all,
00:16:22private sector is very well welcome to filling that gap, so yes,
00:16:25improving domestic refining capacity, I think what we need to now focus on is to ensure we have
00:16:29more active players all right, in the industry to ensure
00:16:33there is um, let me use the word
00:16:36competition and there indeed, competition.
00:16:40Mr. thank you so much, head natural resources and climate
00:16:43governance budget foundation, there's always lot to talk about uh in
00:16:47our industry. I i hope we'll have you in sometime soon uh,
00:16:51we will have more time to discuss all of this.
00:16:53I'll be glad to come back. Thank you very much. Thank you very much as always enjoy your
00:16:56weekend, you too. All right, th, well, it's time to talk
00:17:00market up is here to help us wrap up the week up, lot is
00:17:04happening, but I don't if you've seen it, but I saw it. saw the stock
00:17:08market team going to visit the president and you gave him the market reports
00:17:12and all of that, i was excited about that and the future yes
00:17:16that we are really building
00:17:18you know towards the one trillion dollar
00:17:20economy, you know that's idea from the president, the
00:17:24market you know took it wholeheartedly
00:17:28very very well, so since then everything has been positioned
00:17:32in different corners, different sectors, even the reform, look at
00:17:36the reforms that they are. companies within the capital
00:17:39markets towards that we have finished that
00:17:43the recapitalization for the banks and uh last week we
00:17:47concluded for insurance so that one alone remain and
00:17:50so we keep going um back to the trading
00:17:54flow we are seeing very strong
00:17:57forces of recovery and it's really
00:18:01important stocks majority them they are on
00:18:04bits and um the revolution that so
00:18:08first uh hold co or
00:18:11populary you know first bank that we know primarily that group
00:18:15um man is taking very huge
00:18:18attention from investors uh just as it had
00:18:22uh it's problem some years ago it's
00:18:26now the darling the market of course the
00:18:30bank with the old days history and so we see
00:18:34first bank um you know driving the... and
00:18:38oters are following, then the insurance companies that have just
00:18:42finished the recapitalization, majority them are showing
00:18:45themself very, very well, so you see them on
00:18:48both sides the market doing well, talk of mutual benefits, guiney
00:18:52insurance, lasaco, there are so many and i think
00:18:56that um in the new dispensation many people will begin
00:19:00to appreciate insurance markets and the activities,
00:19:04they they now have huge funds and they will... prove
00:19:07according to what some their professionals have
00:19:11said, so we wait to see, perhaps we will have a
00:19:14situation where Nigeria will rank
00:19:18with other countries where
00:19:20insurance products are highly
00:19:24priced, of course we stop this idea of
00:19:27grading insurance below banking, which is
00:19:31reverse in many other economies, so
00:19:35I think that um we need to watch out what we have from the insurance
00:19:39sector, i like the way that they went through their
00:19:42recapitalization quietly, like the banks, the
00:19:46banks always flash, i know they
00:19:50have resources, so you won't blame them,
00:19:53so is they did very quietly, all right, i
00:19:57think only about eight companies,
00:20:01visiting them,com will still be watching
00:20:04them, on the whole, i think they did better. Yeah,
00:20:08I think the successful success
00:20:11in their activities, so now we see
00:20:15trading, what we are asking is with these huge funds
00:20:19that will be coming from the sector and the banks, what kind
00:20:23of businesses would they be doing, where would they put
00:20:26their funds, how would they be able to
00:20:29you know help the economy to grow by supporting small
00:20:33scale businesses? Those are the questions that they not need.
00:20:37to provide the answers for and if they do that then
00:20:40the economy should begin to
00:20:43you know expand as for the capital markets i
00:20:46think um we are ready for business.
00:20:51so what's your projection, now moving on now, my projection is that i i
00:20:55this half year remaining from now until
00:20:57december gna see huge
00:21:01threads on the floor already have
00:21:06very reports you very impressive
00:21:06know from many the sectors and on
00:21:10the back of that many people are taking positions
00:21:13in so many huge talks you know
00:21:17thinking that uh november december they may be able to
00:21:21have kill go to the bank and make more
00:21:24profits from their investment and who says even our
00:21:28brothers, sisters from the diaspora, they are increasingly
00:21:32participating in - our market and that is a
00:21:35plus for us, because it takes away the
00:21:39window of
00:21:40you know waiting too long for foreigners to come with their dollar and
00:21:44any moment they go back, so it's like when we take Nigerians that
00:21:48are living outside. plus do the big
00:21:52companies like insurance companies and fund managers that are playing
00:21:55here then you know that about
00:21:5870-75% the market you know is being
00:22:01dominated by domestic
00:22:04you know players because Nigerians abroad you can
00:22:07you know equate them somehow as a domestic and they would
00:22:11be
00:22:12you know sympathetic to whatever happens here
00:22:15than you know rare foreigners either from Asia or
00:22:20Europe, but all in all, you see
00:22:24that our markets is really,
00:22:26you know, breathing just like any other big
00:22:30markets, forget about the volume that they have in New York
00:22:33or in in Tokyo, but in
00:22:37terms of profitability, the investors in the Nigerian
00:22:41market, they are being highly rewarded, at least in the
00:22:44last three years we've seen what, and with the type of companies
00:22:48that are coming in, It means the future is uh quite
00:22:52russy. Thank you so much market editor there eckup. Thank you, as
00:22:56always, thank you. Enjoy your weekend, the same i say you should
00:22:59do. Thank you so much. Well, that's our package today. Thank you so much for being
00:23:03a part of it. On behalf the entire production crew. We see you on
00:23:07Monday. Stay safe, get the cash even during the weekend. I'll
00:23:11see
00:23:11you.
00:23:18Breaking news is not just the... about the headlines, it is the riple effects the
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00:28:29be the best is never simple.
00:28:35It is pressure, precision and the
00:28:38responsibility to get it right. Behind every
00:28:41headline is powerful engine of network engineers
00:28:45and technical teams working around the clock, keeping
00:28:49the news room alive, connected and on
00:28:52air, producers, shaping the
00:28:56stories, editors will find the
00:28:59truth, graphics designers and produces
00:29:03bring clarity and impact, feeling our
00:29:07screens with content that informs, educates
00:29:11and empowers, and then the brave
00:29:14reporters who dare it all, stand in the
00:29:17rain, the heat, the tension to
00:29:21bring live, accurate coverage to Nigerians
00:29:25all year round, the anchors who
00:29:29ask the hard questions, interrogate the issue.
00:29:33and keep the nation informed with courage
00:29:37and balance. yes, it takes a
00:29:40lot, but here at tv seniors,
00:29:43we are always ready to give our best, telling the Nigerian
00:29:47story from the Nigerian prospect. TBC
00:29:50news, best TV news channel Nigeria
00:29:53broadcasting awards and the best television station,
00:29:57Nigeria Media Merit Award.
00:30:01TBC news. first with breaking
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00:30:12to break it tv news first with breaking
00:30:16news.