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00:00:37Well, thank you
00:00:37for staying to you. Nigeria's headline inflation has continued its downward trend
00:00:41is in slightly to 15.39% in August, from
00:00:4515.43% in July. The latest figure from the National
00:00:48Bureau of Statistics also shows that food and core inflation
00:00:52moderated pointing to a broader easing of price pressures. Food
00:00:56inflation fell to
00:00:58in 19.57%. Yeah. one year while its monthly rate dropped sharply to
00:01:021.02% from 5.56% in July,
00:01:06now core inflation also decline 13.29%, showing
00:01:10that underline pressure uh price pressures are
00:01:13of gradually cooling. the figure comes as the economy heads into the final
00:01:17quarter of 2026, with inflation now recording its third
00:01:20consecutive month of moderation. improvement could
00:01:24provide a more stable environment for households, businesses and investors
00:01:28of as economic reforms continue to its effect. Now attention now turn
00:01:32to the Central Bank of Nigeria's monetary policy committee meeting next week
00:01:36and what the latest inflation trend could mean for monetary
00:01:39policy. Now with price pressures easing across several key measures,
00:01:43the Q4 outlook will also depend on
00:01:47of food prices, energy cost, exchange rates conditions and overall
00:01:51economic
00:02:09i will start with um your your reading of Nigeria's um
00:02:12August 2026 inflation figure, what is your understanding
00:02:16and what extent does the latest number suggest that the
00:02:20country is making meaningful progress in containing
00:02:23inflation, well if you
00:02:27look at the inflation figures, it mirrors stability we see in
00:02:31fx market and we
00:02:32in know that the fx rate has
00:02:34of major impact on consumer
00:02:37prices, then you add another factor which was some level
00:02:41stability we saw in the price
00:02:42of of refined petroleum product, unfortunately that has reversed in the
00:02:46past couple of weeks, so if you consider the fact that we
00:02:50saw stable prices in PMS, which has a
00:02:54will of transmission into consumer prices and then you
00:02:57have stability in exchange, we actually have had some level of appreciation in
00:03:01local currency exchange rate, so those factors
00:03:05and then you look at the food inflation, you talked about the food
00:03:08inflation about
00:03:10of of 19.5, i think 57%,
00:03:12of moderation from lower than what it was the previous the
00:03:16preceding months and if you consider that the
00:03:20of preceding august, mean august 2025 food
00:03:24inflation was in the region of 15
00:03:26point 25.3%, so clearly with
00:03:30seen improvement uh in the call inflation rate
00:03:34we dropped about 13%, we were driven by a stable exchange rates
00:03:38and stable prices of petroleum products and
00:03:41then we saw moderation in food prices driven
00:03:45by the harvest season, of course we've seen when the peak
00:03:48of the harvest season and we're at the point where you have virtually
00:03:52all food item produced locally moderate, but
00:03:55unfortunately the major moderation in food prices came.
00:04:00from imported food items which came about
00:04:02of 19% of of uh because locally produced food item inflation
00:04:06was about 21% for the same period
00:04:09so in effect we are seeing stability in exchange rates
00:04:13and uh stable f prices like i
00:04:17said earlier that may reverse have
00:04:20in direct impact on on on consumer prices a
00:04:24crossbard indeed i am particularly
00:04:28worried about energy. uh prices, what is playing
00:04:32out uh in the Middle East and of course how it's impacting on the
00:04:35of prices that the pump, as are today now we are doing about a
00:04:38thous uh 400 uh for liter
00:04:42of fiel which many say would impact the prices are moving forward now with
00:04:46food prices, energy cost and exchange rate movements just like you
00:04:50mentioned still important drivers of
00:04:53of households and business cost, what are the biggest risk that could
00:04:56cause inflation to continue to accelerate in the final month? of
00:05:002026, I think the greatest that we
00:05:03have to the current trend
00:05:06with witness in inflation rate is energy cost, energy prices,
00:05:10uh, the volatility
00:05:11of in the middle eastts. seem not to be abbating uh today we
00:05:15are seeing some moderation in the crew prices, last week we
00:05:19saw crude price go above almost
00:05:21110 dollars per barrel uh
00:05:25and then we are not sure that the world has now
00:05:29resolved the issue in the uh middle belt middle east
00:05:33so clearly that becomes that remains the
00:05:36most uh pronounced risk
00:05:39as it relates to inflation because if for instance you look at
00:05:43the price of petroleum product this month and you consider the fact at the
00:05:47pump prices are in the region of 1400
00:05:50400 to 430 or 450 in some locations so
00:05:54the impact of that the transport cost is going to go up so the that
00:05:58category of transport uh with that
00:06:02category of consumer price index or
00:06:06the consumption
00:06:09by expenditure type will go up,
00:06:13it will have a direct impact on food prices because the food has to be
00:06:16transported from where they are produced to where they are consumed, so you
00:06:20find that virtually every
00:06:23consumer expenditure head has draw
00:06:27some level of impact from price of petroleum
00:06:31product, so that's a key factor, the other key factor which
00:06:35i don't think is very pronounced is the issue of food prices, as we
00:06:39move towards the end the year you're also going to move to food. into the
00:06:42planting season and farmers because we don't have capacity to
00:06:46preserve uh uh food locally so
00:06:50you realize that lot of times uh food prices drop
00:06:54materially during the harvest because the farmers cannot preserve it and then
00:06:58once we move out the harvest season the farmers
00:07:02are even themselves struggle to buy food to feed themselves because they
00:07:05couldn't uh they couldn't preserve their produce so we may
00:07:09also see an optic in good prices as we
00:07:13move towards the uh end the year,
00:07:17unless that is upset by import, which we've
00:07:20seen balance the supply of food in the local economy in the
00:07:24past couple of months. let's take a step further, the
00:07:28dangote IPO, which we talked about earlier this week, everyone is talking about it
00:07:32has become Africa's largest ever share offering targeting about
00:07:352.15 trillion, now you fully subscribed, but my question to you really
00:07:39is market issues now, what does the strong retail? interest tell
00:07:43you about investor confidence and the debt of nigeria's capital
00:07:46market? i don't
00:07:50think it has to do with investor confidence and debt of nigerian capital market
00:07:54of course yes so nigerian capital market because if you have a
00:07:58larger pool of investors it depens the market and it creates some
00:08:02level of stability so that the the what could
00:08:05impact that could lead to market
00:08:09reversal reversals will be moderated.
00:08:12because when you have like
00:08:14that say
00:08:14the target about 10 million Nigerians as investors, it will take a long,
00:08:18major dislocation for you to have little investors panic
00:08:22out the market, so it gives the market some level of stability. in terms of
00:08:26investor confidence, what we've seen is that the investors have been so
00:08:30sensitized about the benefit the dangotel
00:08:33refinery, and bear in mind that dang refineries produce is so
00:08:37critical to the economy that virtually like we are discussing earlier
00:08:41we say that the... impact that the cost of fuel
00:08:44has the transmission effect on almost all the cost items
00:08:47consumption categories so every nigerian virtually
00:08:51every nigerian know about the person who is producing the food they are consuming
00:08:54today and they ordinarily give be
00:08:58sensitize on the benefit of investing that
00:09:02refinally we've seen a lot of retail investors scrabble for
00:09:05investment struggled mean we've seen the level of interest we've not seen
00:09:09in recent history uh past after the banking industry
00:09:13consolidation of 2006 2008 uh so
00:09:16that is what has happened investors
00:09:19are the product of is something
00:09:22that is known to everybody the matter how your level of
00:09:26enlightenment so it's easier for people
00:09:29embrace investment in that
00:09:32good that's
00:09:32what i would say as relates to investor confidence it does not
00:09:36necessilly mean that investors are buying every stock of course we've seen market
00:09:40rallys about that those market. we are driven largely by institutional
00:09:44investors, but what we are witnessing now is retail
00:09:47investors scrambling for a dang refinally
00:09:50offer. finally on that, beyond the
00:09:54capital raised by IPO, how significant could the refineries
00:09:58expansion be for Nigeria's foreign exchange position, fuel supply,
00:10:02government revenues and overall economic
00:10:05growth. well,
00:10:08until stream,
00:10:12share of nigeria's import that was accounted by
00:10:16define about 30 to 23% depending on which period
00:10:20so uh if we effectively eliminate that bear in
00:10:24mind that totally import for. the second quarter of this year was about 14 trillion,
00:10:27of course there still some components uh of refined petroleum
00:10:31products, refined petroleum product was still PMS was still the largest
00:10:34component of that, if we eliminate that completely, it simply we're going
00:10:38to conserve about 20% of our import bill, so that will flush
00:10:42into our reserve and that will flush into our exchange rates and that
00:10:46will have very saluty effect on inflation rate,
00:10:50because once you exchange it appreciates then the
00:10:54value. price of imported items will moderate,
00:10:58so the dangote refinary expansion, we have material
00:11:01impact on our external external position, a balance of
00:11:05trade position, particularly if it is supported
00:11:09and emphasize is if it's supported by increase in crude production, i think
00:11:13the last about 1.6 million bar 1.67 million barrass a
00:11:17day, we need to go back whatever it takes, we need to produce
00:11:21enough crude that we should be able to supply dang 100%.
00:11:25of its crude demand or need and
00:11:29still export the same quantity we exporting or still meet our
00:11:32opaque export quarter that's the only way we
00:11:36can fully trap the benefit the dangoter refinary
00:11:39expansion if we don't expand crude local crude production
00:11:43it then means that part of that our what
00:11:47d is using to produce will be imported so you
00:11:51will see that whatever crude it imports will to some extent
00:11:55reduce the value, the net position we would have gained in our
00:11:59balance of trade if all his crude imput is
00:12:02derived locally or or supplied
00:12:05locally. now Nigeria is we are as we
00:12:09enter the final quarter of 2026, I like you to educate
00:12:12us and tell us, what should businesses, investors and households
00:12:16be watching most closely? inflation uh
00:12:20donira, interest rates, all prices, there
00:12:24seems to be lot. consumer demand or government spending and
00:12:28of course why? i think what
00:12:32uh nigerian businesses and nigerian house be watching is one what
00:12:35happens in the middle east it has a direct impact on their standard of
00:12:39living because once food prices increase it hurts almost all
00:12:43of us that's one factor but the biggest elephant in the room
00:12:47is the political uh climate
00:12:51um we need to maintain a self political climate because we are moving toward election
00:12:55period when you talk about the election presidential national presidential national assembly
00:12:58election on 16th of January that's almost just the end of this
00:13:02quarter this quarter the last quarter of this year so you realize that
00:13:06whatever uh political tension that
00:13:09will uh enate from the
00:13:13upcoming uh national elections will already be
00:13:17here with us before the end of this year so if we have
00:13:19smooth uh if we have very codial
00:13:23campaign and election indicators are that is going to be free and
00:13:27fair, we are likely going to see some improve level
00:13:31of stability
00:13:31in the economy, and in terms of reserve, we know our reserve is very strong, so what that
00:13:35means that the central bank has a watches uh to maintain
00:13:39exchange rate stability in next couple of months uh about
00:13:4354 billion dollars in reserve gives central bank the
00:13:47capacity to maintain exchange rate even if he has a market to maintain that
00:13:51so that's not a great threat to us uh the great threat will come
00:13:55from external factors like - like i mentioned
00:13:58earlier increasing international price of crude that have effects on
00:14:02our refined petroleum products that we import which we have a
00:14:06direct impact on inflation rate
00:14:08um i think that's
00:14:09the greatest two two things we need to watch out for what happens in the
00:14:13middle east as it relates to crew prices and what happens
00:14:17in local political environment as to maintain social
00:14:20harmony getting more more
00:14:25interesting, I must say, the IMF also projects
00:14:28Nigeria's 2026 grow at about 4.1% and
00:14:32year end inflation at about 16,
00:14:3517%. Uh, they are also warning the higher food
00:14:39and fuel prices uh remains risk. Now,
00:14:43what policy decisions in Q4 will be critical to
00:14:46balancing economic growth with the need to bring
00:14:50inflation down? I think what the federal
00:14:54goverment can do... is to focus on addressing the issue of insecurity
00:14:57in the major belts uh food food belts the country
00:15:01particularly northwest not east and not
00:15:04central um there is we need to have
00:15:08an environment where farmers can go back to the farm and plant uh
00:15:12and then produce that will that will not
00:15:16eliminate completely that will have a positive impact on
00:15:20inflation particularly food inflation which is the
00:15:23biggest concern of most. households uh, like I said, you had food
00:15:27inflation about 19.57%, but inflation was just about
00:15:3113%. I mean, where you take out the
00:15:33volatile energy and food items.
00:15:37so assuming that we drive down food inflation to the region of 13% that
00:15:41means we are going to see inflation rate moderate to something
00:15:45like 13% or maybe 12%. so i think
00:15:48that should be the focus the government uh that we
00:15:52have a chance of improving insecurity the security
00:15:56situation in the country and ensure that farmers can go to their
00:16:00farms and produce whatever uh
00:16:04they can and the other things and much of longer. we're talking about what
00:16:08could happen the first quarter, the last quarter of this
00:16:10year, well indeed again,
00:16:14just came to my mind, i remember we we read fac yesterday on the news uh
00:16:18sharing 2.3 trillion uhira to states and
00:16:22of course federal states and local government, think i just want to ask you your
00:16:26understanding what you make of this increase funding and are we
00:16:30getting enough of um how will i put service with
00:16:34regards to this funds has been distributed to states and local?
00:16:37government, can they do better?
00:16:41well, to they should be able to do better, if you even
00:16:45look at what they have received so far, i think with this
00:16:472.2 trillion, the
00:16:51thes of government would have gotten over 20 trillion this year, because last time i say
00:16:54before this allocation it was about 18 trillion, that's almost
00:16:58about what it got the entire last year, last year was 22 trillion, so we've seen a
00:17:02material increase in allocation going to thes of government, so what the
00:17:06challenge is what are we delegating value for money?
00:17:10is few states we could say that the been material
00:17:13improvement in this governance standards in terms
00:17:17of use of state resources for the public for public goods,
00:17:21but we can't say that applies to all the states on equal
00:17:25basis. so the key thing
00:17:27you and i will continue to aggiate or push for is that the
00:17:31threats of government must show more prudence in management of public resources
00:17:34and the must get value for money for. public expenditure that is
00:17:38incured by the government. um, in terms of revenue, we've seen material
00:17:42improvement in revenue, over 30%
00:17:45increase in revenue year on year that the threats of government have
00:17:49gotten, um, but even what they got in august was
00:17:53reduction from what they got in July, but at 2. over
00:17:572 trillion, that is sufficient for government to run its
00:18:01expenditure effectively. of course, revenues can
00:18:04never be enough, because government is... government
00:18:08needs are inexhaustible,
00:18:12but king
00:18:13is
00:19:08has trading going today and let's look at the week totally
00:19:11let's review the week uh looking at the
00:19:15trading today market has has done
00:19:19about 18 billion and
00:19:23about done about 18 billion in value and in term of
00:19:27volume about 407 uh
00:19:30million and we can see the gainers are presently
00:19:34we have about 76 gainer against 24.
00:19:38loser we have the first bank, first bank has gain about
00:19:418%, kaverton,
00:19:44wemma, fixing,
00:19:47icho, and for the loser side we have sovereign
00:19:50investment, live stock,
00:19:53lake ever capita and
00:19:57so on and so forth, but looking at the market we can see
00:20:01that the the momentum is
00:20:05still is still low though
00:20:09market is tried to stabilize the momentum is low and it's not far
00:20:12fresh uh we don't have fresh fund i need to tell we don't really have
00:20:16fresh fund in the market because everybody is
00:20:19running uh after the you know
00:20:23after the IPO and we believe that when the after the
00:20:27allocation I believe that the allocation should be
00:20:29oversubscribed and we are going to have some return money
00:20:33whereby we are going to have more money also finding their way back.
00:20:37into the market till
00:20:39then i believe market we are still going to market is still going
00:20:42to be doing like this till then back to you yeah thank you
00:20:46so much the over subscription the ipo on
00:20:50understanding, what does it speak to our markets in in terms
00:20:54of investor confidence? uh, because we see lot of retail investors or
00:20:58getting into this IPO, sorry, I didn't get it very
00:21:02well, I'm asking you about what this means for investor confidence in our
00:21:05capital market, this what, this link i want, what does
00:21:09this IPO's over subscription, what does it
00:21:13mean, yes, yes, you know, look, looking at the
00:21:16IPU, IPU is, I mean, what has happened? Nigeria
00:21:20market this year is really fantastic and we can see that is kind
00:21:24of answer to prayer and that is going to boost the you know look at
00:21:28our capital
00:21:29you know the the the capital b now is going to be very large
00:21:32and uh for the dangute himself the refinery you know
00:21:36coming to the market is
00:21:38a is huding is huge thing and the
00:21:42investor you know the is a is
00:21:45kind of opportunity even for the the
00:21:49rest. to the real investor then also FBI, I
00:21:53believe that with this after listing is going
00:21:57to open open door for the market more and the
00:22:00confidence also that have been restored in the market because I want to tell you
00:22:04that you know the the the the confidence have been restored to our
00:22:08market and uh our market is institution that is
00:22:12most I mean
00:22:12I talk about the regulatory aspect is very strong
00:22:16and uh you know for people to call me that will not be anything like
00:22:20panic again, which I believe also we look at the bank
00:22:23capitalization, everything is moving toward
00:22:26positive, I mean trajectory, and I believe
00:22:30that he just for us to be patient, it's just for us to be patient and we are going to
00:22:34see the com
00:22:35I mean materializing at the long run, what do
00:22:39you think, how do you think the market will wrap this year up considering all of this
00:22:43positives that we've seen? yes, as I've said
00:22:46before, you look at you, the market have been so much,
00:22:51you know have been moving up and down, but I believe, as
00:22:55I've said before, I believe that this IPO should be over
00:22:58subscribe, because if you look at the private placement about 2.1
00:23:02trillion and you look at
00:23:06the IPO also, so I believe
00:23:08that when they have when we have over over
00:23:12subscription for this IPO,
00:23:15you know, return money from the IPO, danguty IPO
00:23:19is going to flow back. or find their way back into the market
00:23:22and I believe that before the end the year our
00:23:25market we we see need to what to move
00:23:29an upward I mean direction before the end
00:23:39all right before
00:23:40we go let's tell you uganda central bank has raised
00:23:42the cash reserve requirements for commercial banks to 13.5% from
00:23:4611% as the local shillings comes under renewed pressure. against the United
00:23:50States dollar. The Bank of Uganda says the new requirements will take
00:23:54effect on September 24th, the move means commercial banks will be
00:23:58required to hold the larger share the deposits as
00:24:01reserves tightening liquidity within the banking system. The central bank
00:24:05says the adjustment aims at straightning liquidity management, improving
00:24:09the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission and me prevailing
00:24:13economic and financial conditions. The shillings had wikened in recent
00:24:17weeks as demand for dollars increased particular. for manufacturers
00:24:21and energy sector, businesses facing higher imports and fuel
00:24:24cost. bank of Uganda's executive director for policy and
00:24:28and research, Adams Mugume says the central bank
00:24:32does not plan to intervene directly
00:24:34uh through dollar sales to support the currency. Mugume
00:24:38described such intervention as a potential policy inconsistency
00:24:42suggesting the bank will instead rely on monetary
00:24:46and liquidity management tools to respond to pressures.
00:24:53Meanwhile the Bank of Japan has raised its benchmark interest rate to
00:24:561.25%. It's highest level in 31 years as a central bank
00:25:00steps of efforts to prevent inflation from overshooting its
00:25:042% target. The decision taken at the end of two-day policy
00:25:08meeting lifted the rate from 1% a seven to two
00:25:12vote. Board members are tochiro, Asada and
00:25:15Ayano Sato voted against the increase. Now the
00:25:19latest. like um marks another step away from Japan's decade
00:25:23of ultra losing monetary policy uh that and brings borrowing
00:25:27cost closer to what the Boj considers a neutral level for the
00:25:31economy. Governor Kuso Uda says the bank policy
00:25:34has shifted as underlineing inflation approaches the 2%
00:25:38target. The BOJ is also monitoring the impact of higher energy
00:25:42cost, a weaker year and increase demand linked to investment and
00:25:46artificial intelligence. Uda says the bank would a just policy.
00:25:50If there is risk of inflation significantly above target and
00:25:54hurting uh the Japanese
00:25:55economy. Now to Malaysia, well
00:25:59exports rose 31.2%, year on year. to 1.36
00:26:03trillion ringit in the first eight months of 2026, putting the
00:26:07country on track for another record - year in trade.
00:26:11now the strong performance uh was driven by
00:26:15increase shipment of electrical and electronic products alongside stronger
00:26:19export of petroleum products, liquidified natural gas and other commodities.
00:26:22official data shows total trade climbed 27% to 2.5
00:26:26trillion ringid where all imports increase
00:26:2922.4% to 1.16. billion ring
00:26:33it, the trade surplus doubled year on-year to 198.6 billion
00:26:37ring it, with January to August figure already exceeding Malaysia's full
00:26:41year surplus in both 2024 and 2025. In
00:26:45August alone, total trade jumped 43.4% to
00:26:48354.01 billion ring, with export rising
00:26:5145.5 to 191.05 billion ring.
00:26:55imports also increase 41.1% to
00:26:58162.96 billion ring in resulting a monthly trade.
00:27:02surplus of 28.09 billion ring it. Malaysia's
00:27:06investments, trade and industry ministry says it will continue expanding
00:27:10market access, strengthening industries and support exporters to
00:27:13capture opportunities in global
00:30:51An efficient and vibrant agriculture sector remains a major
00:30:55pivot the tinib economy, hence the deployment of
00:30:58interventions aimed at boost.