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00:00:00grief, pain,
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00:00:09tvc news, we
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00:00:40Well, thank you for staying tune. Nigeria's headline inflation has continued its downward
00:00:44trend is in slightly to 15.39% in August
00:00:48for 15.43% in July. The latest figure from the National
00:00:51Bureau of Statistics also shows that food and core inflation
00:00:55moderated pointing to a broader easing of price pressures. Food
00:00:59inflation. fell to
00:01:01in 19.57% year on year while its monthly rate dropped sharply to
00:01:051.02% from 5.56% in July,
00:01:09now core inflation also decline 13.29%
00:01:13showing that underline pressure uh price pressures are
00:01:16of gradually cooling. the figure comes as the economy heads into the final
00:01:20quarter of 2026 with inflation now recording its third
00:01:23consecutive month of moderation. improvement could uh
00:01:27provide a more stable environment for households. businesses and investors
00:01:31of as economic reforms continue to take its effect. now attention now
00:01:34turns to the central bank of nigeria's monetary policy committee meeting next
00:01:38week and what the latest inflation trend could mean for
00:01:42monetary policy. now with price pressures easing across several key
00:01:46measures. the Q4 outlook will also depend on
00:01:49food
00:01:50of prices, energy cost exchange rates conditions and overall economic
00:01:54activities. well
00:01:56my next guess is the founder and chief executive officer of carry assets
00:02:00management Limited, Mr. Johnson Chuku, he joins me virtually for this
00:02:03conversation. Thank you so much, uh, it's good to see
00:02:06of you today. Thank you, today for having me,
00:02:10good day. Yes, I think I will start with um, your
00:02:14your reading of Nigeria's um August 2026 inflation
00:02:17figure. What is your understanding and what extent does the latest
00:02:21number suggest that the country is making meaningful
00:02:25progress in containing
00:02:26inflation? We're talking. if you look
00:02:30at
00:02:31the inflation figures, it mirrors the stability we see in fx
00:02:34market and we
00:02:35in know that fx rate has
00:02:37of major impact on consumer
00:02:40prices, then you add another factor which was some level
00:02:44stability we saw in the price
00:02:46of of refined petroleum product, unfortunately that has reversed in the past
00:02:50couple of weeks, so if you consider the fact that we saw
00:02:53stable prices in pms which has wall
00:02:57of transmission into consumer prices. and then you have
00:03:01stability in exchange, we actually have had some level of appreciation in local
00:03:05currency exchange rate, so those factors and
00:03:08then you look at the food inflation, you talked about the food inflation about
00:03:13of of 19.5, i think
00:03:15of 57%, moderation from lower than what it was the
00:03:18previous the preceding months and if you consider that the
00:03:23of preceding august, mean august 2025 food
00:03:27inflation was in the region of 15 point 25.
00:03:303% so clearly we've seen
00:03:33improvement uh in the cor inflation with dropped
00:03:37about 13% we were driven by stable exchange rates
00:03:41and stable prices of petroleum products and
00:03:44then we saw moderation in food prices
00:03:48driven by the harvest season of course we've seen when the peak
00:03:51of the harvest season and we're at the point where you have
00:03:54virtually all food items produced locally
00:03:57moderate but unfortunately the major
00:04:01of moderation of in food prices came from imported food items which came about
00:04:05of 19% uh because locally produced food item inflation
00:04:09was about 21% for the same period
00:04:12so in effect we are seeing stability in exchange rates
00:04:16and stable f prices like i
00:04:20said earlier that may reverse have
00:04:23in direct impact on on on consumer prices
00:04:27across board indeed. I am
00:04:30particularly worried about energy uh prices, what
00:04:34is playing out uh in the middle east and of course how it's
00:04:38impacting on the
00:04:38of price that the pump, as at today now we are doing about
00:04:411,400 uh for liter
00:04:45of fiel which many say would impact the prices are moving forward now with
00:04:49food prices, energy cost and exchange rate movements just like you've
00:04:53mentioned still important drivers of household and business
00:04:56cost, what are the biggest risk that could cause? inflation to
00:05:00continue to accelerate in the final month of
00:05:032026, i think the greatest that
00:05:06we have to the current trend witness in inflation rate
00:05:10is energy cost, energy prices. uh the volatility in the
00:05:14middle east seem not to be bating uh today we are
00:05:18seeing some moderation in
00:05:20the group prices last week we saw group price go above almost
00:05:24110 dollars per barrel
00:05:28and then we are not sure that the world has now
00:05:32resolved the issue in the uh middle middle east
00:05:36so clearly that becomes that remains the
00:05:39most uh pronounced risk.
00:05:43as it relates to inflation because if for instance you look at the
00:05:47price of petroleum product this month and you consider the fact at the
00:05:50pump prices are in the region of 1400
00:05:53400 to 430 or 450 in some locations so
00:05:57the impact of that the transport cost is going to go up so the that
00:06:01category of transport uh with that
00:06:05category of consumer price index or
00:06:09the consumption by
00:06:13uh uh expenditure type will go up, it will have a direct
00:06:17impact on food prices because the food has to be transported from where they are
00:06:20produced to where they are consumed, so you find out
00:06:24that virtually every consumer
00:06:27expenditure head has draw some level of
00:06:31impact from price of petroleum product, so that's
00:06:35in key factor, the other key factor which i don't think is very
00:06:39pronounced is the issue of food prices as we move.
00:06:42towards the end the year, you're also going to move to fully into the planting
00:06:46season, and farmers, because we don't have capacity to
00:06:49preserve uh uh food locally, so
00:06:53you realize that lot of times uh food
00:06:57prices drop
00:06:58materially doing the harvest season because the farmers cannot preserve it and then
00:07:02once the we
00:07:03out move harvest season the farmers are even themselves struggle to buy food
00:07:07to feed themselves because they couldn't uh they couldn't preserve their
00:07:11produce so may also see an optic
00:07:15in food prices as we move towards the uh
00:07:18end the year, unless that is upset by
00:07:22import which we've seen balance the supply of food
00:07:26in the local economy in the past couple of months.
00:07:30let's take a step further, the dangote IPO which we talked about earlier this
00:07:33week, everyone is talking about it has become Africa's largest ever share offering
00:07:37targeting about 2.15 trillion now you fully subscribed, but my question
00:07:41to you really... is market issues now, what does the strong retail
00:07:45uh interest tell you about investor confidence and the debt of nigeria's
00:07:49capital market? i
00:07:53don't think it has to do with investor confidence and deta of nigerian capital
00:07:56market, of course yes, nigerian capital market because
00:08:00if you have a larger pool of investors it depens the market
00:08:04and it creates some level of stability so that the uh
00:08:08the what could impact that could lead to uh market
00:08:11reversal? reversals will be moderated
00:08:15because when you have like say
00:08:17they are talking about 10 million Nigerians as investors, it will take a long,
00:08:21major dislocation for you to have little investors panic
00:08:25out the market, so it gives the market some level of stability. in terms of
00:08:29investor confidence, what we've seen is that the investors have been so
00:08:32sensitized about the benefit the Dongotel
00:08:36refinary, and bear in mind that that refinary produce is so
00:08:40critical to the economy that like we discussing
00:08:43earlier, we say that the impact that the cost of fuel has
00:08:47a transmission effect on almost all the cost items
00:08:50consumption categories, so every nigerian
00:08:54virtually every nigerian know about the person who is producing the food they are consuming
00:08:57today and they ordinarily be
00:09:01sensitized on the benefit of
00:09:04investing, we've seen a lot of retail investors
00:09:07scrabble for investment struggled, mean we've seen the
00:09:11level of interest we've not seen in recent history uh past after
00:09:14the banking industry consolidation of 2006 2008
00:09:18uh so that is what has happened investors
00:09:22are
00:09:23the the product of that is something that is known to
00:09:27everybody the matter how your level of enlightenment so it's
00:09:30easier for people embrace investment
00:09:34in that ref that's
00:09:35what i say as relates to investor confidence it does not
00:09:39necessarily mean that investors are buying every stock of. we've seen market
00:09:43rallys about that those market rally we are driven largely by institutional
00:09:47investors, but what we are witnessing now is little
00:09:50investors scrambling for that finally uh
00:09:53offer finally on that beyond the
00:09:57capital raised by IPO, how significant could the refineries
00:10:01expansion be for Nigeria's foreign exchange position, field supply,
00:10:05government revenues and overall economic
00:10:08growth, well um
00:10:11until... refine econ stream uh
00:10:15share of nigeria's import that was accounted by
00:10:19refined about th to 23% depending on which period
00:10:23so uh if we effectively will eliminate uh that bear in
00:10:26mind that total import for the second quarter of this year was about 14 trillion,
00:10:30of course there
00:10:31is still some components uh of refined petroleum products,
00:10:34refined
00:10:35petroleum product was still PMS was still the largest component of that, if we
00:10:39eliminate that completely, it simply mean we're going to conserve about
00:10:4320% of our import bill so that will flush into our reserve and
00:10:47that will flush into our exchange rate and that will have very
00:10:50salutary effect on inflation because once
00:10:54you shades then the value
00:10:58or price of imported items will all moderate, so the
00:11:02dangoter refinary expansion, we have material impact on
00:11:05our external external position, our balance of trade
00:11:09position, particularly if it is supported and
00:11:12emphasized, if it's supported by increase in crude production, i think the
00:11:16last figure about 1.6 million bar 1.67 million barriers a
00:11:20day, we need to go back whatever it takes, we need to produce
00:11:24enough crude. that we should be able to supply dangot a
00:11:27100% of its crude
00:11:31demand or need and still export the same quantity we exporting or still meet
00:11:34our opaque export quarter that's the only way
00:11:38we can fully trap the benefit the dangoter refinally
00:11:42expansion if we don't expand crude local crude
00:11:45production it then means that part of that
00:11:49our uh what d is using to produce will be
00:11:52imported so you will see that whatever creod it impulse
00:11:56will to some extent reduce the value, the
00:12:00net position we would have gained in our balance of trade if all his crud
00:12:04input is derived locally
00:12:07or or supplied locally. now Nigeris,
00:12:11we are as we enter the final quarter of 2026, I like
00:12:15you to educate us and tell us, what should businesses, investors and
00:12:19households be watching most closely
00:12:22inflation uh thenira interest rate? all
00:12:25prices, there seems to be lot, consumer demand or
00:12:29government spending, and of course
00:12:31why? i think what
00:12:35nigerian businesses and nigerian house be watching is one, what happens in the
00:12:39middle east, it has a direct impact on their standard of living,
00:12:43because once food prices increase, it hurts almost all of
00:12:46us, that's one factor, but the biggest elephant in the room
00:12:50is the political climate,
00:12:54um, we need to maintain a self political climate because we are moving toward an election
00:12:57period when you talk about election presidential national presidential national assembly
00:13:01election on 16th of january that's almost just the end of this
00:13:05quarter this quarter the last quarter of this year so you realize that
00:13:09whatever uh political tension that
00:13:12will uh emanate from the
00:13:16upcoming uh national elections will already be
00:13:20here with us before the end of this year so if we have
00:13:22smooth uh "we have very corder
00:13:26campaign and election indicators are that is going to be free and
00:13:30fair, we are likely going to see some improve level
00:13:34of stability economy, and in terms of reserve, we know our reserve is very
00:13:37strong, so what that means that the central bank has a worchest
00:13:41to maintain ex stability in the next couple of
00:13:45months, about $54 billion dollars in reserve gives
00:13:49central bank the capacity to maintain exchange date, even if he has in
00:13:52market to maintain that, so that's not a..." threat to us,
00:13:56the great threat will come from external factors like
00:13:59like i mentioned earlier, increasing
00:14:03international price of crude that will have effects on our refined petroleum
00:14:07products that we import which will have a direct impact on inflation
00:14:10rate, i think that's the greatest two two things we need to
00:14:14watch
00:14:14out for, what happens in the middle east as it relates to crude
00:14:18prices and what happens in local political
00:14:21environment as to maintain social harmony.
00:14:26getting more more interesting, must say, the
00:14:30IMF also projects Nigeria's 2026 grow at about
00:14:334.1% and year end inflation at
00:14:37about 16, 17%. uh, they also
00:14:41warning the higher food and fuel prices uh remains risk.
00:14:45now what policy decisions in Q4 will be
00:14:48critical to balancing economic growth with the need to
00:14:52bring uh inflation down?
00:14:56"I think what the federal government can do is to focus on addressing the issue of
00:15:00insecurity in the major belts uh food food bes the
00:15:04country particularly northwest not east and not central
00:15:07um there is we need to have an
00:15:11environment where farmers can go back to the farm and plant uh
00:15:15and then produce that will that we
00:15:19not eliminate completely that will have a positive impact on
00:15:23inflation particularly for" inflation which is the
00:15:26biggest concern of most households, like i said you had food inflation
00:15:30about 19.57%,
00:15:33but inflation was just about 13%, mean you take out the
00:15:36vol um uh energy and food
00:15:40items, so assuming
00:15:42that we drive down
00:15:43food inflation to the region of 13%, that means we are going to see inflation
00:15:46rate moderate to something like 13% or maybe
00:15:5012%. so i think that should be the focus the
00:15:53government uh that we have a chance
00:15:57of improving in security the security situation in the country
00:16:00and ensure that farmers can go to their firms and
00:16:04produce whatever uh they can. and
00:16:08the other things are much of longer because we're talking about what could happen the first
00:16:12quarter, the last quarter of this year, well
00:16:16indeed again, just came to my mind, I remember we we read fac
00:16:20yesterday on the news uh sharing 2.3 trillion
00:16:23a to states and of course federal states and local
00:16:27government, I think I just want to ask you your understanding what you
00:16:31make of this increase funding and are we getting uh
00:16:34enough of um how will I put service with regards? to these funds
00:16:38has been distributed to states and local governments, can they do
00:16:41better? well uh to they
00:16:45should be able to do better, if you even look at what they have received so far, i
00:16:49think with this 2.2 trillion
00:16:53the thes of government would have gotten over 20 trillion this year, because last time
00:16:57i say before this allocation it was about 18 trillion uh, that's
00:17:01almost about what they got the entire last year, last year was 22 trillion, so
00:17:05we've seen a material increase in allocation going to the
00:17:07three years of government, so what the challenge is, what are
00:17:11we really getting value for money? is few states we could say that they've
00:17:15been material improvement in this
00:17:18governance standards in terms of use of state resources for the public
00:17:22for public goods, but we can't say that applies to all the
00:17:26states on equal basis, so the key thing you and i will
00:17:30continue to agitate or push for is that the
00:17:34threats of government must show more prudence in management of public. ses
00:17:37and the we must get value for money for public expenditure that is
00:17:41incured by the government um in terms of revenue we've seen material improvement
00:17:45in revenue over 30% increase in
00:17:49revenue year on year that the th of government have gotten
00:17:53um but even what they got in august was reduction from what they got
00:17:57in july but at 2 point over two
00:18:00trillion that is sufficient for government to run its
00:18:04expenditure effectively of course revenue. can never
00:18:08be enough because government
00:18:10res uh government needs are
00:18:13inexhaustable, but kitten
00:18:16is
00:18:25it's a good way to leave it there, must thank you so much mr johnson chuku for your time on the
00:18:29show, founder ceo, career assets management limited, thank you so
00:18:32much, do have a great
00:18:34weekend? Thank you
00:18:37for having me. All right, then,
00:18:41well, it's a time to review trading activities at the Najan Exchange
00:18:45Limited, and my guest is our equities trader at roadstrom
00:18:48investments and securities Limited, Mr. Dili
00:18:52Sanusi. Good afternoon, Mr. Sanusi, it's good to have you, join the
00:18:55program.
00:19:02Good afternoon, Mr. Sanusi, are you there? Yes, good afternoon
00:19:06to you, can you? me loud and clear, how's it going? tell us what's
00:19:10playing out, how's trading going today, and let's look at the
00:19:13week, totally, let's review the week, uh,
00:19:17looking at the trading today, market has has
00:19:21done about 18 billion and
00:19:24done about 18 billion in
00:19:28value and in term of volume about
00:19:3047 uh million
00:19:34and we can see the gainers are presently. we had about 76
00:19:38gainer against 24 loser, we have the
00:19:42first bank, first bank has gain about 8%,
00:19:45kaverton, well fixing
00:19:49icho, and for the loser side we have
00:19:52sovering investment, live stock,
00:19:56uh era lake ever capital and
00:20:00so on and so for, but looking at the market we can see
00:20:04that uh the the momentum is
00:20:08still is still low, though
00:20:11market is try to stabilize, the momentum is low and it's not far
00:20:15fresh uh, we don't have fresh fund, i need to tell we don't really have
00:20:19fresh fund in the market because everybody is
00:20:22running uh after the you know
00:20:26after the IPO and we believe that when the after the
00:20:30allocation I believe that the allocation should be
00:20:32oversubscribed and uh we are going to have some return money
00:20:36whereby we are going to have more money also finding their way back
00:20:40into the market till
00:20:42then i believe market we are still going to market going
00:20:45to be doing like this today back to you yeah yeah thank you so
00:20:49much the over subscription the IPO in your own
00:20:53understanding, what does it speak to our markets in in terms
00:20:57of investor confidence uh because we see lot of retail
00:21:00investors getting into this IPO?
00:21:03sorry, I didn't get it very well. I'm asking you about what this means for investor
00:21:07confidence in our capital market, this what? this
00:21:11link, what does this IPO's over
00:21:14subscription? what does it mean?
00:21:17thank you, yes, yes, you know, look, looking at the IP.
00:21:20ipo is, mean what has happened to nigeria market this
00:21:23year is really fantastic and we can see that is kind
00:21:27of answer to prayer and it's going to boost the you know look at
00:21:31our capital
00:21:32you know the the the capital b now is going to be very large
00:21:35and uh for the dangute himself the refinery
00:21:39you know coming to the market is a is huding is
00:21:42huge thing and investor you know
00:21:46the is a is kind of opportunity.
00:21:50even for the to the investor to the investor
00:21:54then also FBI, I believe that with this after
00:21:57listing is going to open open door for
00:22:01the market more and the confidence also that have been
00:22:05restored in the market because I want to tell you that you know the
00:22:09the the the confidence have been restored to our market and uh our market
00:22:13is institution that is most I mean I talk about the
00:22:16regulatory aspect is very strong and uh you
00:22:20know for people to come me that will not be anything like panic again and
00:22:24which i believe also we look at the bank capitalization
00:22:27everything is moving toward positive mean
00:22:31trajectory and i believe that he just for us to be
00:22:34patient it's just for us to be patient and we are going to see the com mean
00:22:38materializing at the long run back to what do you
00:22:42think how do you think the market will wrap this year up considering all of this
00:22:46positives that we've seen yes
00:22:49as i've said before you look at you know the market have been
00:22:51someers you know have been
00:22:55moving up and down but I believe as I've said before I believe
00:22:59that this IPO should be oversubscribed because if you look at the
00:23:03private placement about 2.1 trillion
00:23:06and you look at
00:23:08uh uh the IPO also so I believe
00:23:12that when they have when we have over over
00:23:15subscription for this IPU you know return money from
00:23:19the ipo, danguti IPO is going to flow back or find
00:23:23their way back into the market and I believe that before the end
00:23:27the year, our market we we see need
00:23:31to what to move an upward, I mean direction
00:23:35before the end the year. Thank you so much for your time on the show, we really do
00:23:39appreciate this, thank you. All right,
00:23:43before we go, let's tell you Uganda Central Bank has raised the cash reserve requirements for
00:23:46commercial banks to 13.5% from 11. percent as
00:23:50the local shillings comes under renewed pressure against the United States dollar. The
00:23:54Bank of Uganda says the new requirements will take effect on September
00:23:5824th, the move means commercial banks will be required to hold the
00:24:02larger share the deposits as reserves tightening
00:24:06liquidity within the banking system. The central bank says the adjustment
00:24:09aims at strengthening liquidity management, improving the effectiveness of
00:24:13monetary policy transmission and it prevailing economic and
00:24:17financial conditions. The shillings had wicked. recent weeks as
00:24:21demand for dollars increased, particularly from manufacturers and energy
00:24:24sector, businesses facing higher imports and fuel cost. bank of
00:24:28Uganda's executive director for policy and and research,
00:24:32Adams Mugume says the central bank does not plan to
00:24:36interven directly uh through dollar sales to support the
00:24:39currency. Mugume described such intervention as a
00:24:43potential policy inconsistency, suggesting the bank will
00:24:47instead rely on monetary and liquidity man. tools
00:24:50to respond to
00:24:51pressures.
00:24:56Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan has raised its benchmark interest rate to
00:24:591.25%, its highest level in 31 years as the central bank
00:25:03steps up efforts to prevent inflation from overshooting its
00:25:072% target. The decision taken at the end of two-day policy
00:25:11meeting lifted the rate from 1% a 7-2
00:25:15vote. Board members are tochiro, Asada and
00:25:18Ayanosatu vote. against the increase. now the
00:25:22latest hike marks another step away from Japan's decade of
00:25:26ultra losing monetary policy uh that and brings borrowing costts
00:25:30closer to what the BOJ considers a neutral level for the
00:25:34economy. governor kuzo Uda says the bank policy has
00:25:38shifted as underlining inflation approaches the 2%
00:25:41target. the Boj is also monitoring the impact of higher energy
00:25:45costts, a weaker yearn increase demand linked to investment and artificial
00:25:49intelligence. you that says the bank would a just policy if
00:25:53there is risk of inflation significantly above targets
00:25:56and the Japanese economy now
00:25:59to Malaysia. exports
00:26:03rose 31.2% year on year to 1.36 trillion
00:26:06ringit in the first eight months of 2026, putting the country on
00:26:10track for another record uh year in trade. now
00:26:14the strong performance uh was driven by increase
00:26:18shipment of electrical and electronic products alongside stronger export of
00:26:22petroleum products, liquid natural gas and other commodities. official
00:26:26data shows total trade climb 27% to 2.5 trillion
00:26:30ring it. we all imports increased. 22.4% to
00:26:341.16 trillion, the trade surplus doubled year
00:26:38on-year to 198.6 billion ring it, with January to
00:26:41August figure already exceeding Malaysia's full year surplus in both
00:26:452024 and 2025. In August aloan total trade
00:26:49jumped 43.4% to 354.01 billion
00:26:53ringet with export rising 45.5 to
00:26:56191.05 billion ring. imports also increased
00:26:5941.1% to 162.9 6 billion ring it
00:27:03resulting a monthly trade surpluss of 28.09
00:27:07billion ring it. Malaysia's investments, trade and industry
00:27:10ministry says it will continue expanding market access, strengthening
00:27:14industries and support exporters to capture opportunities in
00:27:18global