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00:00:24news, wherever
00:00:25of the big news stories happening, we get up
00:00:28to.
00:00:37of
00:00:47Hello there and thank you so much for joining us, it's Friday's edition
00:00:50of of Business Nigeria, now these are the stories we're tracking for you at this
00:00:54time, Nigeria, France reaffirms commitment to
00:00:58stronger bilateral ties. Nigeria's gas flaring rates
00:01:02rose to 7.48% in August
00:01:052026. Bank of Japan raises rates to
00:01:081.25%, highest in 31
00:01:13of in years. Well again, gold is bouncing back today as we
00:01:17wrap the week up and is staying at
00:01:19$4,430.80 cents for an ounce of
00:01:23gold while silver is $6.7.22 uh the
00:01:27change in both
00:01:27of these commodities we have positive 31.1. zer silver is
00:01:311.12 and a 0.71 percentage points for
00:01:34gold that's positive and silver is
00:01:371.69% also for silver coper is
00:01:41$664 - 2.15 it's down
00:01:440.32% points platinum is
00:01:48of $1,811.95 positive
00:01:5038.18 and
00:01:52of is 2.15 percentage points also in
00:01:55green but corn wheat and coco down they
00:01:59a are in
00:01:59red to. day let's start with coco that is trading at $577
00:02:03that's $5,772 for a metric
00:02:07of turn and it's 3.46% down the change is
00:02:10207.0 that's pretty significant uh
00:02:14wid
00:02:14of is down 0.93 6.75 that's the difference and
00:02:18it's $720.25 for metric turn of width
00:02:22con is $5.28.50 it's in red
00:02:250.38 and it's
00:02:27of negative of 2.00 of caught
00:02:29of in his. $2.30 it's in green
00:02:320.16 and 0.13
00:02:35positive that says for cutting now Asian stocks
00:02:39rose today as investors weighed on global efforts to
00:02:43contain inflation while Japan's latest rate hike
00:02:46delivered with
00:02:47a dovish in tilt uh
00:02:49a wicking the yearn now the drop in the yearn helped them
00:02:52Nickel uh to rise nearly 2%.
00:02:56That's it Japanese and two-year government bond.
00:03:00in yield, which are most sensitives to monetary policy
00:03:03expectations, fell four business points to
00:03:061.82%. European stock features slipped
00:03:100.35%, indicating the lower open,
00:03:13bond prices also steadied after another brutal sell off this
00:03:17week. now the 10-year US treasury hits above
00:03:215% to its highest since 2007. now
00:03:24MSCI's
00:03:25of broadest index of Asian Pacific shares outside of Japan
00:03:29rose about 1%, tech heavy South Korea
00:03:33Kospy uh surged over 2%.
00:03:37Well crude oil prices are
00:03:39in failed 2% today extending losses for a third straight
00:03:42session as easing concerns over Saudi's supply
00:03:46disruption out weighted anxiety about the widening middle
00:03:50east conflict. United States West Texas
00:03:53of intermediate crude sells for
00:03:56of $99.88 with a
00:03:57of downward review of 1.99%. points brend good
00:04:01features experience a decline of
00:04:032.25% to trade at
00:04:06$102.50
00:04:09of for a barrel. Indian basket is also selling for
00:04:12$126.90 and it
00:04:15uh in green with a margin of
00:04:173.29%. For the OPEC basket, crudeol
00:04:21dealers
00:04:22of offer $124 for a
00:04:24of barrel with a price decline also in red
00:04:270.47%.
00:04:32Now we have two very important and interesting conversations for you
00:04:35today, so stay with us as we go on the show. Nigeria
00:04:39manufacturers are calling for a 1 trillion naira
00:04:42manufacturing stabilization fund to strengthen
00:04:45factories and sustain industrial production. The manufacturers
00:04:49association of Nigeria says the intervention will help
00:04:52boost uh bell businesses manage financing production
00:04:56pressures. The association says Nigeria's economic group. by
00:05:004.43% in the second quarter of 2026,
00:05:04while industrial sector stood at
00:05:063.96%. now he wants stronger support that
00:05:10man for local production to ensure economic
00:05:13growth translate into higher factory outputs, jobs and
00:05:17investments. the manufacturers are proposing that the fund be
00:05:21managed through the bank of industry with financing made
00:05:25available at lower interest rates. they are also seeking
00:05:29dedicated foreign exchange access for critical raw materials and
00:05:33machinery that are not produced locally. the
00:05:36association has also welcomed ongoing investments and interventions
00:05:40including the 75 billion na manufacturing fund
00:05:44and the Nigeria First Policy. They also
00:05:48say that effective implementation these measures will be
00:05:51important for straightening the manufacturing sector as the
00:05:55country moves into the fourth quarter of 2026. Well let's look at this
00:05:59issue and of course the larger economy. My guest is a friend the
00:06:03house, is a partner at SPM Professionals, Dr.
00:06:07Paul Alaji. He joins me live uh virtually
00:06:11live now. Thank you so much Dr. Alaji,
00:06:15it's good to see you, thank you so very much sir, thank you
00:06:19so much for having me, yeah uh, it's really good, I've been having you some
00:06:22time virtually, so I thought it was virtual, but you're live in our abuja studios
00:06:26today, not virtual, really good to see you, well before we get into our
00:06:30main conversation, I like to ask you of um
00:06:34this video I see everywhere and um and I think
00:06:38that video's been on for some time uh can we get
00:06:42some uh clarity with regards to this video and what you were
00:06:46speaking around uh Nigeria's economy at that time, please some
00:06:50clarity before we get into the manufacturers
00:06:51conversation, well thank you so very much, I think
00:06:55the video was in 2023 or
00:06:592024, and you know how vehement I was a
00:07:02time over the Nigeria economic situation at
00:07:06projected that um exchange rate may get to 1.5, I think
00:07:10in 2024 is devatually go to 19. and central
00:07:14bank did some level of intervention,
00:07:17think i justed some the assumptions, and we saw exchangeries
00:07:21started coming down today, it's about 1,320, which
00:07:25major improvement for where it was, so what i can tell you
00:07:29that we have relative stability now compared to as of that time
00:07:33when the video was made, and also saw the number for
00:07:37inflation, inflation as of that time was over
00:07:4030%, inflation today after rebasing it's about
00:07:4415% plus uh below 60 below
00:07:4716%. i can also tell you about the issue of
00:07:51gdp growth rate, gdp has been rebased
00:07:55now uh it was as of that particular week where the video
00:07:59was made around 199 and nigeria has moved from
00:08:02fifth position is around third position and is important because i've
00:08:06received calls, messages from virtually all over
00:08:10the world in Europe. in Africa here and of
00:08:14course uh in Asia that hey please what's going on including some
00:08:18of other professional around the world who we actually trying to attract our
00:08:22country to come and invest, they are asking question that is the
00:08:26situation that bad we say yes that time that was the
00:08:29situation now there are some level of improvement and that is
00:08:33why your conversation today talking about the request from
00:08:36manufacturer association or manufacturers in Nigeria is very
00:08:40apt what we have seen now is that we have seen relative stability
00:08:44in exchange rate, we have seen relative stability in inflation, those are two major
00:08:48things that portfolio investor, foreign investors should see, i want to invest a
00:08:51country. the question many will now ask is that what are those things that are there now that
00:08:55are still here, now we see poverty rate according to world bank, in conjunction
00:08:59with IMF, we see have some institutional challenges, traditional challenges
00:09:03and some concerns around credical sector, and what
00:09:07can make us come out of all these will be one the things
00:09:10manufacturer is asking for one. trillion na is inira, not in dollar,
00:09:14yeah, one trillion naira would have lot of impact
00:09:18directly on what we need to do now, what should the
00:09:21administration be focusing anything that will gear
00:09:24productivity? the minister had mentioned that we had gain of about
00:09:2815 trillionaire uh from subsidy removal and that was the
00:09:31report and presentation made to journalists. now of all these, even though
00:09:35the money is not sitting somewhere, but
00:09:37it is so apt if we consider creating a vote or
00:09:41creating. a program for manufacturers
00:09:45and like I mentioned in that viral video uh that when you look at China,
00:09:49when you look at Asia, why is China driving? China is
00:09:52driving because the energy the focus is on manufacturing,
00:09:56when you look at east Europe, eastern Europe, you see Germany
00:10:00there, Germany focuses on manufacturing,
00:10:04Nigeria manufacturers cannot be sandwich, when you look at trade according
00:10:08to B of statistics over 50%, app 60% is
00:10:12what contributed to a gd is
00:10:13what it is total contribution to gdp when you look at
00:10:17the the last gdp number 36% you look at what i did or
00:10:21service beg your pardon service and you look at agriculture primary
00:10:25but the key sector where a lot of people can be engaged, where
00:10:29people can feel the impact is manufacturing. we understand that
00:10:33government has to perform some regulatory roles, provide
00:10:36security and all of those things for life, but support for
00:10:40those who would help poverty, reduce poverty
00:10:44rate, they will come majorly from manufacturers, because when we
00:10:47support and we we were able to produce some the things that we consume, even
00:10:51export, which i think is even the ultimate goal here. beyond what we
00:10:55consume even export to compete internationally that we have more
00:10:59impact a foreign exchange and i should also say
00:11:01that as of that time when the video was made foreign exchange in Nigeria was less than
00:11:0540 billion today it's over 55 billion so I must
00:11:09acknowledge some of those major progresses that we have
00:11:12made so we have seen macroeconomic variables as largely
00:11:16stabilized but the macro indicators
00:11:19st suffers so how we get to transfer
00:11:23now what we need now is transformation because from stability you get to
00:11:26transformation then the people will see prosperity, that's how people come from
00:11:30economic crisis, economic crisis, you need to stabilize it after
00:11:33stability, you need to go to transformations, transformation, prosperity will come, while
00:11:37a second phase of stabilization, which is good, how do we move from
00:11:41stabilization to uh provide going to
00:11:44transformation? one key thing out of other things is
00:11:48transformation, what we help the administration and entire Nigeria, beg your
00:11:52pardon to see this transformation will be if we can improve on our
00:11:56productivity, even if we pay level 500 thousand, tell you not
00:12:00so much will change, because if you are not producing more, if we are not increasing our
00:12:04output as nation, either for domestic or foreign consumption or for
00:12:08for foreign juice, the truth is that as matter of time these will fail
00:12:11inflation, poverty will rain supreme, so how we move this
00:12:15to individuals that need this the most is to ensure that we improve
00:12:18productivity and productivity especially for firms
00:12:22which of course sits for close economy. in the middle where that's
00:12:26consumption and government is sits in the middle, that's industry, that's
00:12:29firms, so I totally support the request for
00:12:33manufacturers association of Nigeria or Nigerian manufacturer generally that this
00:12:37support is long over dude, if truly we want to mitigate the
00:12:41impact of exchange rate pass through, then we must
00:12:45be able to produce somethings in larger quantity
00:12:48locally, and I think government will also need to look at even policies
00:12:52that uh that affects manufacturer, one them of course is energy and if you
00:12:56check the recent report from bureau statistics, the Q1 report shows energy
00:13:00sector, power sector reported negative, the second quarter, energy
00:13:04sector, that's power sector, also reported negative, you know what that means in economics,
00:13:08it means that power sector is technically a recession, permit me to use the
00:13:12word technically in recession, even though the economy is not in recession, so
00:13:15if if and if energy does not work properly, if it is not
00:13:19positive, if it's not growing, definitely it will still affect what
00:13:23a manufacturer product because is key ingredient beyond all
00:13:27the input that of course the cost we are spending is between 17 to 18 trillion
00:13:30i uh for us to import some of those raw materials because what we
00:13:34produce from our farms are output but what is more important at
00:13:38this moment today is those raw material that is usable for industry so that
00:13:42they don't become muribon they don't become redundant we need to do something really
00:13:46critically about uh raw materials that we
00:13:49can that of course should be made available in Nigeria that largely will
00:13:53improve employment that will improve growth beyond
00:13:564.43% which we have, it will, it will improve it
00:14:00sporadically, and we are going to see even stability that is moving
00:14:04forward beyond stability to transformation, and eventually when
00:14:07transformation persis, perhaps for few years, you're going to see
00:14:11prosperity. great stuff, a great breakdown, as always
00:14:15dr. alaji, given Nigeria's fiscal constraints,
00:14:19debt service bording on one side, now where should government
00:14:22realistically source this funds from? uh such
00:14:26without wasting inflation and of course maybe budget
00:14:29deficit. yeah,
00:14:33thank you so much. that's that's the question I expect to follow, where will the money
00:14:37come from? quite a lot of places. um, if you look at the gain
00:14:41we've made from uh subsidy removal and the gain we've
00:14:45made from um unification of
00:14:49the naira and devaluation of naira that follows it. uh, we have seen
00:14:53that what is shared at the... fac has gone to trillion,
00:14:57so from fac level, which of course federal state and
00:15:00also all of those, this money is not a dash,
00:15:03it is money to be paid back although with low interest rates, if if
00:15:07the if the entire country agrees and mean our leaders agree that
00:15:11this is as important as anything is deducted,
00:15:14it is given to back of industry which i think it should be, the money can
00:15:18go to qualified members based on the rules and
00:15:21anybody from sokoto to badagri from
00:15:30can participate all across Nigeria, people, I mean
00:15:34businesses, industry can participate in this one trillion.
00:15:38support and i don't think it's entirely be free, it could
00:15:42be paid back over time, but i'll
00:15:45be it with single digit interest rate, properly speaking with about 6% interest rate
00:15:49with the the the bank managing that
00:15:53not to get beyond 2% for administrative charges and the money
00:15:56can go back uh to to perhaps the federation account or
00:16:00government, whichever we central bank we work that out and i also
00:16:04know that beyond even the fact central bank is another b that can
00:16:08give this facility at very low interest rate, we we, i
00:16:12don't want to pick all the technicalities as to what happen
00:16:15to um uh cash reserve requirement and
00:16:19so on and so forth, so can the money be raised if it is not a
00:16:23dash, if it is not that we are giving this money out to manufacturer, the
00:16:27answer is yes, do we have the will to do this so that
00:16:31we can boost production sporadically in Nigeria, well that is what I cannot
00:16:35answer here, but I can tell you that - we do have the will,
00:16:38you are going to feel the impact in output, you are going to feel the
00:16:42impact in economic growth, you are going to feel the impact in
00:16:46improvement in employment, you are going to feel the impact in trade
00:16:50surplasses, you're going to feel the impact in further currency stability,
00:16:54you are going to feel the impact in in
00:16:57economic transformation, so if we do this and and i
00:17:01think that the modest amount anybody can talk about is 1 trillion na, if
00:17:05you truly want to speak in the resets of it. should be more than the amount that
00:17:08manufacturers has put
00:17:10forward.
00:17:14all right, mr. laje, uh, moving forward uh in
00:17:17this conversation now, i like us to speak to
00:17:21the challenges of high energy cost, foreign exchange
00:17:24volatility uh, that um, expensive raw materials and
00:17:28multiple taxes. now, which these problems puses
00:17:32the the greatest threat to the survival and competitiveness of nigerian industries
00:17:36and why? I will start with what
00:17:40we can control before I go to what we cannot control, what can we control?
00:17:44we can control multiple taxation, we have tax
00:17:48law which is the act, and and I think that one
00:17:52the things we need to review quickly is what affects manufacturer, because if you want to
00:17:55truly be engine of growth for Africa and we want manufacturer to be
00:17:59the manufacturing to be the engine of growth for our country, we need to look at
00:18:03excessive taxes or manufacturer and multiple taxation
00:18:07in. that is currently a challenge. I understand the manufacturers
00:18:10were consulted, number of persons were consulted at different
00:18:14window uh by the committee. It was an extensive job that was
00:18:18done at that time, but like we all knew that tax reform
00:18:21cannot be a one of thing, it has to be a continuous thing. And I want to
00:18:25advise manufacturer to approach government again, that is if they've not done
00:18:29that, to look at key area that is putting board in or manufacturing,
00:18:33especially importing raw materials. That is on the short run which I
00:18:37think. can do a matter of months, the one I think we might take
00:18:41us year or two is to design a program to look at what are
00:18:44those raw materials that we import the most and we are able to
00:18:48produce them locally, maybe by producing by
00:18:52providing uh technical, technological and technical support
00:18:56to ensure that we don't necessarily need to import these things
00:18:59from Karno to kaduna to just to benway uh some these
00:19:03material that are available in the middle b part of Nigeria in the...
00:19:07in the call northern part of Nigeria, can we make these things
00:19:11available? and the truth is that often time people say that,
00:19:15oh now it is everyone for itself, private sector should
00:19:18figure it out, they will figure it out on inflation, they will figure it
00:19:22out on increase poverty, they figure it out with more people
00:19:26becoming deprived, and as though that will not be enough, if you don't take quick
00:19:30decision on time, it will be figured out by having
00:19:34more import dependency and of course everybody will be thrown
00:19:38back, the game we have seen in relative stability, we might to go back economic
00:19:42crisis, because economics you are not permitted to stay in one zone,
00:19:46we have moved from crisis to relative stability, we can either
00:19:49progress to transformation or we go back economic crisis,
00:19:53so but we don't want
00:19:54to go back to the left, we want to proceed to the right, in proceeding to the
00:19:58right we need to do key things, how did China do it and now
00:20:02what has Indonesia done? I will share the two with you here today,
00:20:05first when China's started the policy of hom giving
00:20:09people some moneys and say we are going to support you conditional cash
00:20:13transfer, it never worked until china knew that see because of our
00:20:17population we need to get these people engaged,
00:20:20manufacturing we started seeing GDP growth rate of Chinese uh
00:20:24China economy, it grew to about four, five 6%, but beyond all of
00:20:28those government started supporting private sector for manufacturing and that
00:20:32was evident in government literary building factories, literally
00:20:36building factories, then sell give condition to those factory that we have
00:20:40another factory selling equipment you need to import, other factory
00:20:43selling the manufacturing item that you need and the banks were designed in that
00:20:47way, so if you want to collect facility from bank the... question is where are you
00:20:51sourcing your imports? those are available in the country were prioritized, they
00:20:55are not saying don't import, but you were prioritized, so because they were
00:20:58prioritized, access to uh liquidity and
00:21:02credit were much more facilitated, and this is where we need to
00:21:06converge in terms of trade, fiscal and monetary
00:21:09authority so that we can support local businesses, especially
00:21:13manufacturing sector, which we all know is is the real engine of
00:21:16growth, because when they expand banking, which
00:21:19of course is service we expand, telecom we expand, insurance we
00:21:22expand, and those who are also in primary sector, including manufacturing,
00:21:26agriculture, oil and gas, etc., etc., we expand, all of
00:21:30us we serve, we will serve the middle point, which is the
00:21:34manufactur and as manufacturing growth trade we expand, we are going to be a
00:21:38large economy, can we achieve it? the answer is yes,
00:21:42but we need those in administration, governments to take key
00:21:46decisions around identifying key production zones, provide
00:21:50support with energy, support with policy, and if we need
00:21:54be support those manufacturers directly by looking at
00:21:58how and what we want the direction of a manufacturing to
00:22:02go and what we want it to be. one the things we need to look at very quickly
00:22:05is is the cost of energy, which is another factor. i
00:22:09understand that it's it's on the table, perhaps we will entirely remove
00:22:13subsidy on energy, as sweet as it sound that we should remove
00:22:16subsidy, and
00:22:17there economic model for it that when you re subsidy you are going to
00:22:21see your economic grow now that that uh that
00:22:25uh equation economics there a lot that are
00:22:28defect that are there a lot of deficiency with it because
00:22:32that of course we ensure that you have more poor people automatically except and
00:22:36unless your economy has grown to point or your economy is already able
00:22:40to produce some things that can mitigate uh how poverty may
00:22:44show up but if you are not able to do that it's important that we first provide
00:22:48such support for man off. trying to produce to point where
00:22:51majority of our population are employ and this is what we need to
00:22:55look at. when you look at Nigeria labor force, according
00:22:58to uh the bureau of statistics our labor force is already
00:23:02small, iimated out of about 230 million
00:23:06estimated population figure, how many people are within our labor force? less than
00:23:0980 million people, properly speaking about 70, 75 million people,
00:23:13but what i can tell is about less
00:23:14than 80 million people, the last time i checked the numbers, now these less than
00:23:1880 million people, how many? people get work up
00:23:22to one hour a week, if you check, even let's assume everybody
00:23:26gets work, but you are going to service uh 130 million
00:23:30people, if you remove 80 million and this is being charitable, you have
00:23:33150 million that are either too old to work or too young to
00:23:37work, so how can look at the proportion, it's not proportionate at all,
00:23:41and what matters the most is the people, so we need to look from the area of
00:23:44taxes after that we need to look at energy sources
00:23:48which is really very... important and we also need to look at how to possibly
00:23:52substitute if possible uh those uh items that we're
00:23:56importing from abroad and make them available this moment today
00:24:00and most importantly government must provide support, it's
00:24:04a must provide support through bank of industry and
00:24:08if it's going to be for raw materials, bank of agriculture
00:24:12could also be of of high importance, but i don't
00:24:16think this facility of support should come through any commercial bank because of
00:24:20commercial rate, even if it comes through commercial bank, it cannot be on commercial
00:24:24rate, it is not what we can survive, look at what NPR
00:24:27is today at over 26%, 76.5%, and if let's
00:24:31assume NPR comes to 26% or even 25%,
00:24:35what will lending rate be, lending rate is still going to be relatively
00:24:39high compared to those are manufacturers are competing with, also look
00:24:43at the economic environment, are we seeing what is happening
00:24:47between Ukraine,
00:24:48I mean sorry Ukraine and Russia, Iran and America and
00:24:51Israel and look at
00:24:52all of those that is going on in geopolitics in the middle east and look at what is going on in the
00:24:56eastern Europe when you compare all these together we definitely
00:25:00have impact on the economy and what is the impact high diesel
00:25:04prices, high petroleum, uh petroleum product
00:25:08prices, they have significant on our industry and our industry is impacted, the
00:25:12truth is that going to have inflation on prices, whether inflation get to
00:25:1516, 20, 30, 50%, it's a different kettle of fish,
00:25:19what you are. I know that the impact will surely be felt by our
00:25:22pockets. Indeed, it will be felt by our pockets. Well, I think
00:25:26it's a good way uh for us to leave it. It's been an interesting
00:25:29conversation as always. Dr. Paul Alaji, always nice having to talk
00:25:33to you uh, the partner, SPM professionals, do
00:25:37have a great weekend and enjoy yourself.
00:25:41Thank you so much for having me. All
00:25:45right, still to come on the program, let's do a further breakdown of August
00:25:492026 in. figures, I'm sure you saw those figures, but let's do
00:25:53a further breakdown and also economic outlook for the last quarter
00:25:57of 2026, it's a pre-election year and lot of conversations around
00:26:01what is playing out uh and the as we move to the end the year, my
00:26:04next guest is the founder, chief executive officer,
00:26:08carry assets management Limited, Mr.
00:26:12Johnson Chuku, he joins after this break, don't go away, this
00:26:16is Business Nigeria, stay with
00:26:17us.
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00:30:26first with
00:30:27Britain.
00:30:48Many thanks for joining us on TBC News, this are six
00:30:52persons have been killed and two others injured in accident
00:30:56along kaba road in kababuno local government area of