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00:00:17Ladies and gentlemen, welcome back to Impact Plus,
00:00:21where we discuss the most important global issues. The wars of
00:00:25recent years, as well as the pandemic, have created
00:00:29major problems for the world economy. What
00:00:32is our current position and how great is the risk that
00:00:36the entire world economy will go downhill? We will find
00:00:38out today from Mr. Cristian Sulea, entrepreneur,
00:00:42economist, and university
00:00:53we announced at the beginning of the Impact Plus show,
00:00:57today we are discussing what is happening in the global
00:01:00economy, and I would
00:01:03like to start with the oil market situation, especially after the latest
00:01:07news that has come, particularly from the Middle East. The Strait of
00:01:11Hormuz has been blocked since February. Now, after
00:01:14the events in Yemen, it seems that those
00:01:18Houthi troops are taking control of the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait,
00:01:21hitting oil targets in
00:01:24Saudi Arabia. Please tell us what is happening in this market
00:01:28at this moment. I think the whole issue
00:01:32is important in context, because these
00:01:36in a broader context,
00:01:39which primarily includes the war
00:01:42that was launched by the United States in Iran through
00:01:46the attacks a few months ago, but
00:01:50we must understand this in an even broader context, because things are not
00:01:55stop us from doing this completely disconnected from the war launched by the Russian Federation in Ukraine.
00:01:59Practically, the Russian Federation
00:02:02counts Iran among its allies, and
00:02:06Iran has been using the Houthi rebels for a very long
00:02:10almost six months after time as a tool against its enemies
00:02:13in the region, and here we are primarily talking about
00:02:16Israel, which is somewhat
00:02:19identified alongside the United States as one of the two main
00:02:23enemies of the regime in
00:02:25Tehran, not of Iran in particular, but very
00:02:29specifically of the Ayatollah regime, which
00:02:32took control many decades ago
00:02:36in Iran. So, somehow, all these issues are
00:02:39connected. If we look at the international context from an
00:02:42economic point of view, we observe that there are major
00:02:45disturbances in the oil products
00:02:48market. Today, in particular, we see major
00:02:52problems with pump prices for fuels, which is
00:02:56directly felt by citizens, and here.
00:03:00Why did I want to make this whole connection? Because here, the lack
00:03:03of fuel on the market is also related to
00:03:07Iran's efforts to disrupt
00:03:10the supply of oil products from the Gulf
00:03:14region, but at the same time, it is also related to the Ukrainian
00:03:17strikes on Russian refineries
00:03:21that are used to finance the Russian Federation's
00:03:24war of aggression. So, somehow, we are in a
00:03:27moment when, from all sides, the activity in
00:03:31the oil sector, in the area of hydrocarbon energy production,
00:03:35is disrupted because we have these open
00:03:38conflicts that involve a
00:03:41very important component in this energy area.
00:03:45So, let's admit that Donald Trump was right when he said
00:03:49that part of the crisis is due to
00:03:52the strikes that Ukraine
00:03:54is carrying out.
00:03:56It is evident that when the Russian
00:04:00Federation goes from being a diesel
00:04:04information and advice from exporter to a diesel importer, something that was
00:04:07inconceivable a short time ago, this
00:04:10will have consequences, it will have repercussions on the global market
00:04:14for fuels, because we don't need to
00:04:17buy fuel from the Russian
00:04:20Federation. We can still assume that European countries and
00:04:24European companies have kept their word, have
00:04:28respected their promises and legislation,
00:04:32respecting sanctions and not buying fuel directly from
00:04:50countries that previously imported
00:04:53diesel and fuel in a more general sense from Russia are
00:04:57forced to go and look for this fuel on the international market
00:05:01elsewhere, and that means increased competition for a diminished
00:05:05quantity of product, which, naturally, according to
00:05:08the basic principles of economics, means higher prices for
00:05:12everyone. Mr. Năsulea, what estimates are there at this
00:05:15moment, given today's
00:05:19date, September 15th,
00:05:22how high could oil prices go, and how would that translate
00:05:25for end consumers at the pump?
00:05:28Here you will
00:05:30certainly find many specialists in the field who
00:05:33will give very wide ranges for these estimates, so
00:05:37we have been talking in recent months about oil prices that
00:05:40were absolutely dizzying beyond $150 per
00:05:44barrel in certain situations. Now we must also be aware
00:05:47of the fact that many of these specialists are
00:05:51specialists precisely because they work in the field
00:05:54for certain companies or for certain states that have interests in this
00:05:57area. So, somehow, I would
00:06:01not put too much stock in
00:06:05estimates that talk about prices
00:06:08over $150 per barrel. Just as
00:06:11I would not put too much stock in
00:06:15voices that say that everything will be resolved
00:06:19very soon and that we will be able to buy oil again
00:06:22for $30 a barrel. Both are issues that are out of sync, out of
00:06:26normal, and all we can say after these
00:06:29months since the outbreak of the war in Iran, which
00:06:33actually exacerbated this problem in the
00:06:36energy sector, is that the current
00:06:39price of oil on the international market
00:06:42reflects quite well the expectations
00:06:46of the major players in this field. So, practically, when
00:06:50we have oil that is hovering
00:06:53somewhere around $90, $100,
00:06:56or, well, we have also had days with
00:06:59somewhat better prices, these prices do not only reflect the current
00:07:03situation, they also reflect the expectations
00:07:05of the players in the field who have more information than us ordinary
00:07:09people, which means that, overall... we
00:07:12should not see fluctuations that would take
00:07:15us very far from this average that we are starting to
00:07:19see now
00:07:23the outbreak of the war in Iran. Mr. Năsulea,
00:07:26when I started my journalism career, my first
00:07:30director always told me when I was writing a story to
00:07:33look for who, who benefits from
00:07:36this situation that I am
00:07:39documenting. Now we are talking about the situation on the oil
00:07:42market. Please tell us, however, who benefits
00:07:46from the current situation on the oil
00:07:49market?
00:07:51Here, on the one hand, things are simpler
00:07:54to analyze, because we see concerted efforts
00:07:58by Iran and its proxies with whom
00:08:02Iran works to choke off the global
00:08:05energy supply, and here it is very clear that Iran has
00:08:09a strategic interest, shall we say, a military
00:08:13interest, rather, by turning
00:08:16oil or the lack of oil into a weapon aimed against
00:08:19the West and the enemies of the Tehran
00:08:23regime. So here, things are quite
00:08:27simple to understand. On the other
00:08:30hand, when we look at the high prices we
00:08:33see on the market, which certainly benefit those
00:08:37producers who have found themselves freer,
00:08:40less constrained by competition recently,
00:08:44we must realize that on the one hand, they
00:08:47manage to make higher profits than under
00:08:50normal conditions, but at the same time, if we look at
00:08:54the behavior that gas stations,
00:08:58practically, the downstream sector, almost throughout
00:09:01the European Union, we realize that the current
00:09:05situation is not a comfortable one even for the companies in the field,
00:09:08because practically we see
00:09:11rather a... a transfer of lower
00:09:14costs, much faster than we would have
00:09:28this kind of mechanism is observed, it is very clear
00:09:31that the market is under a greater level of stress
00:09:35than normal, that it is not a comfortable situation even for
00:09:39these companies, so
00:09:41I would not be able, beyond
00:09:44some considerations that relate more to military strategy
00:09:48which other colleagues of mine are more entitled to comment on, I would not
00:09:52be able to point very clearly to a
00:09:56company or a sector where the current
00:09:59situation is advantageous, where there are many things to
00:10:03gain for companies in that area at the
00:10:06expense of other companies or at the expense of the general public. Rather,
00:10:10I would say that this situation... is actually
00:10:13disadvantageous in the long term and overall for everyone.
00:10:20to say that economists say that any
00:10:23crisis is... a moment when other
00:10:27sectors of the economy develop much faster.
00:10:31There was a lot of talk about renewable energy.
00:10:34The current situation we are in, in terms of
00:10:38energy, do you think it could boost other sectors
00:10:41of the economy?
00:10:43I
00:10:46think this is already happening. I think
00:10:50green energy has been discussed in recent
00:10:53months in a much more positive light than
00:10:56normally happened, at least this is the perception in
00:10:59Romania, precisely because we realized
00:11:03that in fact, solar
00:11:06energy, a healthy mix of solar,
00:11:09wind, and hydro, if it is
00:11:12complemented by sufficient storage capacities, can
00:11:16actually provide an alternative to
00:11:19a situation that is otherwise very difficult
00:11:22for us to control. When you realize
00:11:26that Romania, an oil-producing country with
00:11:29significant refining capacities, is
00:11:32so fragile, so sensitive when it comes to
00:11:36these price fluctuations on the international market, you start
00:11:39to think about alternatives, and obviously, the very convenient alternatives
00:11:43for us at this moment are
00:11:46those related to certain types of renewable energy,
00:11:50where we have started to question ourselves, or we are starting
00:11:53to ask ourselves why we don't have those production
00:11:57capacities, why we don't have more production capacities in fact,
00:12:01so that we can develop this sector locally
00:12:04more quickly, because after
00:12:08all, we don't know when the current
00:12:11crisis in the Middle
00:12:14East will end, we don't know when the war in Ukraine will end, and
00:12:18as long as these two crises,
00:12:22these two wars continue, it is...
00:12:25difficult to say that there is no need to
00:12:29invest in batteries or that we shouldn't
00:12:32make some backup plans that would make
00:12:36us more resilient, more independent
00:12:39from this whole area of
00:12:42energy that is produced from fossil
00:12:45fuels. Professor, under these
00:12:49conditions, how do all these shocks affect the entire world
00:12:52economy?
00:12:56I think the recent decision of the European Central Bank
00:12:59to raise, to increase the monetary
00:13:03policy rate, is a good
00:13:07example of what the consequences
00:13:10of global crises mean,
00:13:13which practically affect
00:13:16everyone and which are beginning
00:13:19to show their very
00:13:22concrete consequences, because ...
00:13:26from, again, from Romania's perspective, which is struggling with a large budget deficit,
00:13:30which has a current account deficit, which has all kinds of twin
00:13:34and superimposed deficits, perhaps this increase
00:13:38in interest rates by 0.25%
00:13:40announced this week by the European Central
00:13:43Bank seems like a very small matter, but
00:13:47for economies more stable than the Romanian
00:13:50one, for countries that have
00:13:53managed to keep their inflation rate within parameters,
00:13:57the budget deficit within parameters, and so on, to arrive
00:14:00at seeing an increase in the inflation rate by 1% just due to
00:14:04an energy crisis, the crisis in
00:14:08the fuel sector, is indeed a worrying issue, which
00:14:11evidently, in those economies will have consequences
00:14:15that will roll over into other sectors very quickly, because
00:14:19when transportation becomes significantly more expensive,
00:14:23all other products in the economy also
00:14:26become more expensive. So, we do see
00:14:30the consequences of interconnectedness,
00:14:32interdependence between states
00:14:36and the consequences of the fact that a
00:14:39major crisis, when it appears or manifests
00:14:42in one part of the world, spares no one,
00:14:46leaves no one out, precisely because
00:14:49we have so many issues that are deeply interconnected
00:14:53in the world economy. Under
00:14:57these conditions, how close or how
00:15:00far are we from a world economic crisis, as we
00:15:03experienced in the past? We remember 2008, when
00:15:06everyone was shocked by that crisis.
00:15:10The context is very different. We do have,
00:15:14indeed, issues that spread from
00:15:18one part of the planet to another very quickly,
00:15:21but here we are not dealing with
00:15:25a crisis caused by moral hazard, by decisions that were
00:15:29taken irresponsibly, because
00:15:32the rules of the game were not correctly
00:15:35thought out, as happened before the 2008
00:15:39crisis. Let's remember that then things started
00:15:42when funds and, well, some
00:15:44banks started granting
00:15:48loans that did not have sufficient
00:15:51coverage in a context where we could see
00:15:55a significant drop in prices in
00:15:58the real estate market.
00:16:02Today, the rules, at least in the European Union, are stricter,
00:16:05which means that the system is more resilient
00:16:08to a crisis similar to that of
00:16:122008. Moreover, what we are seeing happening
00:16:15at this moment, again, to make a comparison
00:16:19between what is happening in the rest of the countries in the European Union
00:16:22and what is happening in Romania,
00:16:26Romania has shown or has shown the European Union
00:16:29that there is a lot of room
00:16:32for a country to deepen its
00:16:35problems before they become chronic. After
00:16:39all, our country has been in an excessive deficit procedure for seven
00:16:43years. We are in a situation that
00:16:46has worsened because Romanian politicians have not made
00:16:49the wisest decisions, at least not
00:16:52always, and yet, only
00:16:55recently have we started to see a deterioration
00:16:59of economic parameters for the real
00:17:02economy, which is truly beginning to be felt
00:17:06by the public. Practically, until last year in
00:17:09Romania, incomes grew faster than prices,
00:17:13and only in the last year, when the necessary
00:17:17measures for recovery were finally started, did
00:17:20this reverse. We remain to see for how long this will happen,
00:17:24but the conclusion from my point of view is that in
00:17:27Europe, at least, there is a lot of resilience, there is sufficient
00:17:31reserve to be able to absorb
00:17:34the shock of this crisis in the energy
00:17:38sector at the level at which it is currently manifesting, and even at a
00:17:41more accentuated level. It would take significantly
00:17:45more to see economic problems that would very
00:17:48seriously affect the entire European economy. But if
00:17:52we talk about resilience, which areas of the world are more resilient
00:17:56and which are subject to much greater risks at this moment in
00:17:59the context, again, we are talking about these energy crises and these wars
00:18:03that have been launched. Here again,
00:18:08it's a thousand-point question,
00:18:11or perhaps even more, because when we realize who
00:18:15is most resilient to all the negative
00:18:18factors that can influence the world economy or
00:18:21the economy of a particular country,
00:18:25we have the answer to the question of where to put our money
00:18:28so that it is safe. Well, this is a question
00:18:32whose answer is sought by many specialists in
00:18:36the investment fund sector and capital markets. What
00:18:40I can tell you from interesting data I've seen recently
00:18:44is that in the context of a profound
00:18:47energy crisis, we have
00:18:50absolutely surprising countries like Uruguay, which
00:18:53is an example of resilience or
00:18:56which has the necessary factors to make this
00:19:00country resist better to crises
00:19:02in the global energy sector, due to
00:19:06its energy mix, due to the very
00:19:09high proportion of hydro energy
00:19:13in the national energy mix, to give an explanation related to
00:19:16the source of this resilience. But of course, as we have
00:19:19learned since the pandemic, whenever
00:19:23you are very sure that things are well protected
00:19:27and all your plans are well made, a black
00:19:31swan can appear from nowhere, a completely unexpected
00:19:34negative event that can disrupt all your plans.
00:19:38We discussed the oil market because we are
00:19:41approaching winter. We don't know what winter
00:19:442026, 2027 will be like. How does
00:19:48the gas market look in the current
00:19:50context? Here, again,
00:19:54the disruptions in this market are many and
00:19:58of significant proportions. Many European
00:20:01countries have, in principle, already
00:20:04made sufficient reserves to allow
00:20:08a normal winter to be successfully managed.
00:20:11Here it depends very much on how winter will be, in fact, whether we will have
00:20:15a normal winter or if temperatures
00:20:19will be exceptionally low.
00:20:22Calculations, of course, can change a lot depending
00:20:25on the climate, on what
00:20:28climate change will bring us this year. Beyond
00:20:32that, it's very important to say that the United States
00:20:35is in a privileged position at the moment, because
00:20:39they manage to export
00:20:43liquefied natural gas in large quantities without having
00:20:46the problems that affect the countries
00:20:50in the Gulf region. Here again, we can talk about an
00:20:54advantage for the United States when it comes to natural gas
00:20:57supply, but I would not
00:21:00rush to declare the United States as the big
00:21:03winner in the gas
00:21:07industry of the current situation, because here too,
00:21:10many things can change not
00:21:13only before winter starts, but until this winter 2026,
00:21:172027 passes. We might see many calculations that will be
00:21:20changed in unexpected ways.
00:21:24Since
00:21:27you mentioned the United States, there are elections coming up in
00:21:30November, elections for part of
00:21:33Congress and part of
00:21:36the Senate, the so-called Middle Elections. France
00:21:40is preparing, France, one of the important states of
00:21:43Europe, of the European Union, is also preparing for
00:21:46presidential elections. There are political instabilities
00:21:50in Germany as well, it
00:21:52seems. How much do political calculations overlap
00:21:56with economic ones and endanger the European
00:21:59economy?
00:22:03The overlap is quite small, let's start with that.
00:22:06So there are many things that don't
00:22:10correspond in the political area and with the economic
00:22:13area. So there are countries that have economic problems and
00:22:17a political situation...
00:22:20which at least for now seems more favorable. We expect to see
00:22:23developments that do not bring significant
00:22:26disturbances, and at the same time, we have
00:22:29countries where
00:22:33things are not good either economically or
00:22:36politically. Here Romania is a better
00:22:39example than Bulgaria this
00:22:42time. However, it
00:22:45will be very interesting to follow what will
00:22:49happen with all these sets of elections
00:22:52that are going in
00:22:55directions, let's call them interesting, because
00:22:58we have a
00:23:00sustained growth, even of far-right
00:23:04parties in many European countries, not
00:23:07in all of those countries. Here again, Germany is an interesting
00:23:10example. However,
00:23:13to be very clear, from an economic
00:23:16point of view, what nationalists
00:23:18propose, what far-right
00:23:22extremists propose,
00:23:24is generally just as detrimental as what
00:23:28far-left extremists propose. So, for the economy,
00:23:32this sovereignism, this
00:23:35inward turn, so that it's just us and our
00:23:38own, is contrary
00:23:41to the rules of economics and how economic systems function
00:23:45well, when they are allowed to
00:23:49function well. So, unfortunately, if we see
00:23:52a very large increase in the far-right sector,
00:23:56we will have worse economic results. If we
00:24:00see a very large increase in
00:24:03the far-left sector, we will again see
00:24:07a series of much weaker results from an economic
00:24:10point of view. Mrs. Năsulea, as we are nearing
00:24:13the end, I would like to ask you how Romania enters this
00:24:16winter, so we are at the beginning of autumn, the first half of September,
00:24:20and how does it cope with these
00:24:24crises?
00:24:27In principle, we are well prepared, so in principle our
00:24:30country has enough means
00:24:34to ensure those things that are
00:24:38truly important. So, practically,
00:24:41we have fuel we can get, we have gas put
00:24:44aside and we can get more. The big
00:24:47question right now seems to be how much it will
00:24:51cost. This is actually the big problem for the
00:24:54Romanian state, because the Romanian state has assumed
00:24:58and continues to assume all kinds of things that are not necessarily
00:25:02the most productive or that one cannot
00:25:05necessarily afford, and then the problem in Romania is not
00:25:09fortunately where we will
00:25:12get products to heat ourselves or to ensure
00:25:15transportation, the problem is how much they will
00:25:18cost and. I would add to this, because
00:25:22there are still various schemes of
00:25:25practically capping prices that are fixed by the
00:25:29Romanian state in the natural gas area, the other problem is
00:25:33how big the additional hole will be in the state
00:25:36budget that will be left by all these
00:25:39mechanisms that were
00:25:42introduced in the past and which the Romanian state does not want or
00:25:46cannot eliminate at this moment and the last question what
00:25:49risk"? do you see for the Republic of Moldova in this global
00:25:53context in which we find ourselves?
00:25:56We are generally worried
00:25:59about the Republic of Moldova, first of all because there is.
00:26:02there is a security risk that somehow
00:26:05hovers over
00:26:09Moldova, which could lead to a
00:26:12worsening of the situation from the point of view of
00:26:15democratic institutions, first of all from the point of
00:26:18view of the path that I think
00:26:22that the citizens of the Republic of Moldova
00:26:25want, beyond
00:26:27that, somehow, unfortunately, the economy of Moldova.
00:26:30nefericire economia Moldovei.
00:26:33it is very small because it has been
00:26:37affected for many long years
00:26:40in which the systems and institutions in
00:26:44the Republic of Moldova have functioned against
00:26:47the free market, they have functioned against minimum systems
00:26:50that are necessary for the
00:26:54economy to be able to prosper, but
00:26:57somehow the good news is that, having
00:27:00an economy that has remained... ähh so small the Republic of
00:27:04Moldova, the big brother, Romania, I mean here,
00:27:08can quite easily come and help,
00:27:11to support things in the Republic of Moldova, no matter how
00:27:15big the budgetary problems of
00:27:18Romania are, practically to
00:27:21ensure the necessary electrical energy, to
00:27:24ensure those things
00:27:27that are necessary in order to
00:27:30be able to get through the coming winter well,
00:27:34the costs can be covered
00:27:38and I think they will be covered by
00:27:40the Romanian state precisely through the fact that
00:27:44compared to the cumulation of problems that the
00:27:47Romanian state has at this moment, the resolution or
00:27:50an aid granted to the Republic of Moldova represents too
00:27:54small an amount to
00:27:57from granting aid that is otherwise very
00:28:01necessary in order to be able to
00:28:04support the democratic and free market
00:28:07path of the Republic of Moldova in such a way that the standard of living in the two
00:28:11countries slowly slowly
00:28:15approaches and I am not referring to
00:28:18this thinking about the fact that the standard of living in
00:28:21Romania could decrease, I am referring precisely to
00:28:25the option where the Republic of Moldova slowly starts
00:28:28to catch up, to reach where it should
00:28:31have been if it had had reforms and
00:28:35stronger democratic institutions that would allow it to
00:28:39develop more, faster. Mr.
00:28:43Cristiana, thank you very much, we will certainly have the opportunity to
00:28:46discuss again, because unfortunately global crises do not
00:28:50end when we turn off the spotlights
00:28:54on television. Thank you very much for being with us and we welcome you back to
00:28:57impact plus and global impact,
00:29:04you for being with us today at
00:29:08impact plus, here where we find out everything that
00:29:11happens globally and as you have been able to
00:29:14convince yourselves today, a gunshot fired thousands of kilometers from us
00:29:48Wherever life takes them, Romanians want to know, to
00:29:51understand what is happening. I am
00:29:54Angela Avram and I am waiting for you at Info Diaspora.
00:29:57The show dedicated to you, the international TVR
00:30:00audience.
00:30:02Diaspora always finds essential